Koichubekov B, Takuadina A, Korshukov I, Sorokina M, Turmukhambetova A. The Epidemiological and Economic Impact of COVID-19 in Kazakhstan: An Agent-Based Modeling.
Healthcare (Basel) 2023;
11:2968. [PMID:
37998460 PMCID:
PMC10671669 DOI:
10.3390/healthcare11222968]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/15/2023] [Revised: 11/09/2023] [Accepted: 11/09/2023] [Indexed: 11/25/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND
Our study aimed to assess how effective the preventative measures taken by the state authorities during the pandemic were in terms of public health protection and the rational use of material and human resources.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
We utilized a stochastic agent-based model for COVID-19's spread combined with the WHO-recommended COVID-ESFT version 2.0 tool for material and labor cost estimation.
RESULTS
Our long-term forecasts (up to 50 days) showed satisfactory results with a steady trend in the total cases. However, the short-term forecasts (up to 10 days) were more accurate during periods of relative stability interrupted by sudden outbreaks. The simulations indicated that the infection's spread was highest within families, with most COVID-19 cases occurring in the 26-59 age group. Government interventions resulted in 3.2 times fewer cases in Karaganda than predicted under a "no intervention" scenario, yielding an estimated economic benefit of 40%.
CONCLUSION
The combined tool we propose can accurately forecast the progression of the infection, enabling health organizations to allocate specialists and material resources in a timely manner.
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