Qualitative systems mapping for complex public health problems: A practical guide

Predicting black ice-related accidents with probabilistic modeling using GIS-based Monte Carlo simulation

Black ice, a phenomenon that occurs abruptly owing to freezing rain, is difficult for drivers to identify because it mirrors the color of the road. Effectively managing the occurrence of unforeseen accidents caused by black ice requires predicting their probability using spatial, weather, and traffic factors and formulating appropriate countermeasures. Among these factors, weather and traffic exhibit the highest levels of uncertainty. To address these uncertainties, a study was conducted using a Monte Carlo simulation based on random values to predict the probability of black ice accidents at individual road points and analyze their trigger factors. We numerically modeled black ice accidents and visualized the simulation results in a geographical information system (GIS) by employing a sensitivity analysis, another feature of Monte Carlo simulations, to analyze the factors that trigger black ice accidents. The Monte Carlo simulation allowed us to map black ice accident occurrences at each road point on the GIS. The average black ice accident probability was found to be 0.0058, with a standard deviation of 0.001. Sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulations identified wind speed, air temperature, and angle as significant triggers of black ice accidents, with sensitivities of 0.354, 0.270, and 0.203, respectively. We predicted the probability of black ice accidents per road section and analyzed the primary triggers of black ice accidents. The scientific contribution of this study lies in the development of a method beyond simple road temperature predictions for evaluating the risk of black ice occurrences and subsequent accidents. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, the probability of black ice accidents can be predicted more accurately through decoupling meteorological and traffic factors over time. The results can serve as a reference for government agencies, including road traffic authorities, to identify accident-prone spots and devise strategies focused on the primary triggers of black ice accidents.

Bridges and Mechanisms: Integrating Systems Science Thinking into Implementation Research

We present a detailed argument for how to integrate, or bridge, systems science thinking and methods with implementation science. We start by showing how fundamental systems science principles of structure, dynamics, information, and utility are relevant for implementation science. Then we examine the need for implementation science to develop and apply richer theories of complex systems. This can be accomplished by emphasizing a causal mechanisms approach. Identifying causal mechanisms focuses on the "cogs and gears" of public health, clinical, and organizational interventions. A mechanisms approach focuses on how a specific strategy will produce the implementation outcome. We show how connecting systems science to implementation science opens new opportunities for examining and addressing social determinants of health and conducting equitable and ethical implementation research. Finally, we present case studies illustrating successful applications of systems science within implementation science in community health policy, tobacco control, health care access, and breast cancer screening.

Adaptation of the brainwriting premortem technique to inform the co-creation of COVID-19 testing strategies in underserved communities in South San Diego

INTRODUCTION

Meaningful engagement of partners in co-creating and refining health-related programs can increase the initial uptake, sustained implementation, broad reach, and effectiveness of these programs. This is especially important for underserved communities where resources are limited and need to be prioritized. Brainwriting premortem is a novel qualitative approach to partner engagement that combines the strengths of individual idea generation with the concept of premortem exercise that addresses failure points prior to the implementation of new programs.

METHODS

An adapted form of brainwriting premortem was used to inform iterative refinements to a COVID-19 testing program at a Federally Qualified Health Center (FQHC) in San Diego. Patients and providers from the FQHC participated in interviews at two time points (early- and mid-implementation of the program). Interview data were transcribed, translated, and analyzed using a rapid qualitative approach. Key themes and sub-themes were identified and used to inform refinements to the program.

RESULTS

A total of 11 patients (7 Spanish- and 4 English-speaking) and 8 providers participated in the brainwriting premortem interviews. Key themes related to possible reasons for COVID-19 testing program failure: advertising/sharing information; access to testing; handling of test results; staff and patient safety; patient beliefs and views regarding the SARS-CoV-2 virus; and COVID-19 testing options offered. Proposed solutions were offered for the key failures except for patient beliefs and views regarding the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Additional solutions offered were related to education, physical operations, and recruitment strategies. Real-time changes to the program flow and components were made in response to 7 suggestions from patients and 11 from providers. Changes related to the process of returning results were the most common, and included sending results via email with distinct workflows based on the test result.

CONCLUSION

The implementation of the adapted brainwriting premortem technique allowed us to incorporate the perspective of key partners in the delivery and iterative refinement of the COVID-19 testing program. This was an effective tool in the context of an FQHC and can be a promising and approach to incorporate iterative input from patients and providers to ensure successful program implementation. Future studies, particularly those requiring rapid response to public health emergencies, should consider the use of this technique.

Toward Shared Decision-Making in Degenerative Cervical Myelopathy: Protocol for a Mixed Methods Study

BACKGROUND

Health care decisions are a critical determinant in the evolution of chronic illness. In shared decision-making (SDM), patients and clinicians work collaboratively to reach evidence-based health decisions that align with individual circumstances, values, and preferences. This personalized approach to clinical care likely has substantial benefits in the oversight of degenerative cervical myelopathy (DCM), a type of nontraumatic spinal cord injury. Its chronicity, heterogeneous clinical presentation, complex management, and variable disease course engenders an imperative for a patient-centric approach that accounts for each patient's unique needs and priorities. Inadequate patient knowledge about the condition and an incomplete understanding of the critical decision points that arise during the course of care currently hinder the fruitful participation of health care providers and patients in SDM. This study protocol presents the rationale for deploying SDM for DCM and delineates the groundwork required to achieve this.

OBJECTIVE

The study's primary outcome is the development of a comprehensive checklist to be implemented upon diagnosis that provides patients with essential information necessary to support their informed decision-making. This is known as a core information set (CIS). The secondary outcome is the creation of a detailed process map that provides a diagrammatic representation of the global care workflows and cognitive processes involved in DCM care. Characterizing the critical decision points along a patient's journey will allow for an effective exploration of SDM tools for routine clinical practice to enhance patient-centered care and improve clinical outcomes.

METHODS

Both CISs and process maps are coproduced iteratively through a collaborative process involving the input and consensus of key stakeholders. This will be facilitated by Myelopathy.org, a global DCM charity, through its Research Objectives and Common Data Elements for Degenerative Cervical Myelopathy community. To develop the CIS, a 3-round, web-based Delphi process will be used, starting with a baseline list of information items derived from a recent scoping review of educational materials in DCM, patient interviews, and a qualitative survey of professionals. A priori criteria for achieving consensus are specified. The process map will be developed iteratively using semistructured interviews with patients and professionals and validated by key stakeholders.

RESULTS

Recruitment for the Delphi consensus study began in April 2023. The pilot-testing of process map interview participants started simultaneously, with the formulation of an initial baseline map underway.

CONCLUSIONS

This protocol marks the first attempt to provide a starting point for investigating SDM in DCM. The primary work centers on developing an educational tool for use in diagnosis to enable enhanced onward decision-making. The wider objective is to aid stakeholders in developing SDM tools by identifying critical decision junctures in DCM care. Through these approaches, we aim to provide an exhaustive launchpad for formulating SDM tools in the wider DCM community.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/46809.

Community and partner engagement in dissemination and implementation research at the National Institutes of Health: an analysis of recently funded studies and opportunities to advance the field

BACKGROUND

As the focus has grown in recent years on both engaged research and dissemination and implementation (D&I) research, so too has federal funding to support these areas. The purpose of this analysis is to provide an overall perspective about the range of practices and approaches being used to engage partners in D&I research, with special attention to disparities-relevant research, and to identify gaps and opportunities in research funded by the US National Institutes of Health (NIH) in this space.

METHODS

This analysis examined a portfolio of active D&I research grants funded in fiscal years 2020 and 2021 across the NIH. Grant applications were deductively coded and summary statistics were calculated. Cross-tabulations were used to identify trends by engagement and disparities foci.

RESULTS

There were 103 grants included in the portfolio, of which 87% contained some form of community or partner engagement, and 50% of engaged grants were relevant to health disparities. Engagement was planned across the research continuum with each study engaging on average 2.5 different partner types. Consultation was the most common level of engagement (56%) while partnership was the least common (3%). On average, each study used 2.2 engagement strategies. Only 16% of grants indicated formally measuring engagement. Compared to non-disparities studies, disparities-relevant studies were about twice as likely to engage partners at the higher levels of partnership or collaboration (19% vs. 11%) and were also more likely to be conducted in community settings (26% vs. 5%).

CONCLUSIONS

Based on this portfolio analysis, D&I research appears to regularly integrate engagement approaches and strategies, though opportunities to deepen engagement and diversify who is engaged remain. This manuscript outlines several gaps in the portfolio and describes opportunities for increasing engagement to improve the quality of D&I research and application to advancing health equity. In addition, opportunities for leveraging the consistent and systematic application of engagement approaches and strategies to advance the science of engagement are discussed.

Applying a participatory systems and value approach in a transdisciplinary exercise: on assessing the impact of training and education initiatives

Participatory systems approaches are readily used in multi- and inter-disciplinary exploration of shared processes, but are less-commonly applied in trans-disciplinary efforts eliciting principles that generalise across contexts. The authors were charged with developing a transdisciplinary framework for prospectively or retrospectively assessing initiatives to improve education and training within a multifaceted organisation. A common System Impact Model (SIM) was developed in a series of workshops involving thirty participants from different disciplines, clinical specialisms, and organisations. The model provided a greater understanding of the interrelationships between factors influencing the benefits of education and training and development as seen from various stakeholder perspectives. It was used to create a system for assessing the impact of initiatives on service-users/patients, trainees, and organisations. It was shown to enable a range of participants to connect on common challenges, to maximise cross-, multi-, and inter-disciplinary learning, and to uncover new strategies for delivering value, as system designers.

The use of participatory systems mapping as a research method in the context of non-communicable diseases and risk factors: a scoping review

CONTEXT

Participatory systems mapping is increasingly used to gain insight into the complex systems surrounding non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and their risk factors.

OBJECTIVES

To identify and synthesize studies that used participatory systems mapping in the context of non-communicable diseases.

DESIGN

Scoping review.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Peer-reviewed studies published between 2000 and 2022.

STUDY SELECTION

Studies that focused on NCDs and/or related risk factors, and included participants at any stage of their system's mapping process, were included.

CATEGORIES FOR ANALYSIS

The main categories for analysis were: (1) problem definition and goal-setting, (2) participant involvement, (3) structure of the mapping process, (4) validation of the systems map, and (5) evaluation of the mapping process.

RESULTS

We identified 57 studies that used participatory systems mapping for a variety of purposes, including to inform or evaluate policies or interventions and to identify potential leverage points within a system. The number of participants ranged from 6 to 590. While policymakers and professionals were the stakeholder groups most often included, some studies described significant added value from including marginalized communities. There was a general lack of formal evaluation in most studies. However, reported benefits related mostly to individual and group learning, whereas limitations described included a lack of concrete actions following from systems mapping exercises.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the findings of this review, we argue that research using participatory systems mapping would benefit from considering three different but intertwined actions: explicitly considering how different participants and the power imbalances between them may influence the participatory process, considering how the results from a systems mapping exercise may effectively inform policy or translate into action, and including and reporting on evaluation and outcomes of the process, wherever possible.

The Application of Systems Thinking to the Prevention and Control of Sexually Transmissible Infections among Adolescents and Adults: A Scoping Review

Systems thinking is a mechanism for making sense of complex systems that challenge linear explanations of cause-and-effect. While the prevention and control of sexually transmissible infections (STIs) has been identified as an area that may benefit from systems-level analyses, no review on the subject currently exists. The aim of this study is to conduct a scoping review to identify literature in which systems thinking has been applied to the prevention and control of STIs among adolescent and adult populations. Joanna Briggs Institute guidelines for the conduct of scoping reviews were followed. Five databases were searched for English-language studies published after 2011. A total of n = 6102 studies were screened against inclusion criteria and n = 70 were included in the review. The majority of studies (n = 34) were conducted in African nations. Few studies focused on priority sub-populations, and 93% were focused on HIV (n = 65). The most commonly applied systems thinking method was system dynamics modelling (n = 28). The review highlights areas for future research, including the need for more STI systems thinking studies focused on: (1) migrant and Indigenous populations; (2) conditions such as syphilis; and (3) innovations such as pre-exposure prophylaxis and at-home testing for HIV. The need for conceptual clarity around 'systems thinking' is also highlighted.

The need for a complex systems approach in rural health research

On a global scale, many major rural health issues have persisted for decades despite the introduction of new health interventions and public health policies. Although research efforts have generated valuable new knowledge about the aetiology of health, disease and health inequities in rural communities, rural health systems remain to be some of the most deprived and challenged in both the developing and developed world. While the reasons for this are many, a significant factor contributing to the current state of play is the pressing need for methodological innovation and relevant scientific approaches that have the capacity to support the translation of novel solutions into 'real world' rural contexts. Fortunately, complex systems approaches, which have seen an increase in popularity in the wider public health literature, could provide answers to some of the most resilient rural health problems in recent times. The purpose of this article is to promote the value and utility of a complex systems approach in rural health research. We explain the benefits of a complex systems approach and provide a background to the complexity sciences, including the main characteristics of complex systems. Two popular computational methods are described. The next step for rural health research involves exploring how a complex systems approach can help with the identification and evaluation of new and existing solutions to policy-resistant rural health issues. This includes generating awareness around the analytical trade-offs that occur between the use of traditional scientific methods and complex systems approaches.

Using systems-mapping to address Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs) and trauma: A qualitative study of stakeholder experiences

Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and trauma have been linked to decreased psychosocial and physiological health functioning. While various individual and community-level interventions to address ACEs have been reported, one novel approach that has not been explored in detail is a community-engaged causal loop diagramming project, or systems mapping project (SMP), in which diverse stakeholders work together to document the forces that are creating the outcomes and patterns within the community. To better document and understand the impact of participation in an SMP, we conducted in-depth, qualitative interviews with 16 stakeholders who were involved in a systems-mapping process facilitated by a local nonprofit in Eastern North Carolina. We used an iterative, content analysis coding process to generate and analyze themes from these interviews. Three major themes emerged: 1) Recognition and understanding of own trauma, 2) Trauma as both a community issue and an individual issue, and 3) Systems-mapping as a conceptual tool with practical benefits. All participants strongly recommended the systems-mapping approach to other communities and believed that it is a valuable tool for empowerment and provided several considerations for future organizers of similar systems-mapping projects. Our findings suggest that systems mapping is a feasible, transferable, and promising modality for understanding and addressing ACEs at the individual, interpersonal, and community-levels, as well as for putting community voices at the forefront of efforts to address ACEs.