Clinical findings, viral load, and outcomes of COVID-19: Comparison of patients with negative and positive initial chest computed tomography

SARS-CoV-2 viremia but not respiratory viral load is associated with respiratory complications in patients with severe COVID-19

BACKGROUND

Severe COVID-19 carries a high morbidity and mortality. Previous studies have shown an association between COVID-19 severity and SARS-CoV-2 viral load (VL). We sought to measure VL in multiple compartments (urine, plasma, lower respiratory tract) in patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with severe COVID-19 pneumonia and correlate with clinical outcomes.

METHODS

Plasma, urine, and endotracheal aspirate (ETA) samples were obtained on days 1, 3, 7, 14, and 21 from subjects admitted to the ICU with severe COVID-19. VL was measured via reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. Clinical data was collected from the electronic health record. Grouped comparisons were performed using Student's t-test or 1-way ANOVA. Linear regression was used to correlate VL from different compartments collected at the same time. Logistic regression was performed to model ventilator-freedom at 28 days as a function of peak plasma VL.

RESULTS

We enrolled 57 subjects with severe COVID-19 and measured VL in plasma (n = 57), urine (n = 25), and ETA (n = 34). Ventilator-associated pneumonia developed in 63% of subjects. 49% of subjects were viremic on study day 1. VL in plasma and ETA both significantly decreased by day 14 (P < 0.05), and the two were weakly correlated on study day 1 (P = 0.0037, r2 = 0.2343) and on all study days (P < 0.001, r2 = 0.2211). VL were not detected in urine. While no associations were observed with peak ETA VL, subjects with higher peak plasma VL experienced a greater number of respiratory complications, including ventilator-associated pneumonia and fewer ventilator-free and hospital-free days. There was no association between VL in either plasma or ETA and mortality. In viremic patients, plasma VL was significantly lower in subjects that were ICU-free and ventilator-free (P < 0.05), with trends noted for hospital-freedom, ventilator-associated pneumonia, and survival to discharge (P < 0.1). By logistic regression, plasma VL was inversely associated with ventilator-freedom at 28 days (odds ratio 0.14, 95% confidence interval 0.02-0.50).

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated SARS-CoV-2 VL in the plasma but not in the lower respiratory tract is a novel biomarker in severe COVID-19 for respiratory complications.

SARS-CoV-2 PCR cycle threshold value at admission might not be a good predictor of in-hospital COVID-19-associated AKI

Background

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a prevalent complication of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, and a predictor of disease severity and mortality; furthermore, a prompt diagnosis and treatment of this complication may enhance COVID-19 prognosis. Therefore, we aim to investigate potential risk factors for SARS-CoV-2-associated AKI, including SARS-CoV-2 PCR cycle threshold value (CT value), which correlation with AKI is conflicting.

Methods

This case-control study included 110 hospitalized patients with SARS-CoV-2-associated AKI as cases and 110 random SARS-CoV-2 hospitalized patients as controls. Reverse transcription real-time PCR of admission nasopharyngeal swabs evaluated E gene cycle thresholds. Additional clinical and paraclinical information extracted from medical records. The patient's status at discharge, and 14 and 30 days after discharge. Therefore, after adjusting for age and gender, the correlation between variables was assessed.

Results

SARS-CoV-2 AKI is significantly associated with age above 60, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, ischemic heart disease, and underlying kidney diseases. Abnormal admission hemoglobin or alkaline phosphatase, proteinuria or hematuria in urine sediment, and abnormal creatinine during hospitalization were the paraclinical features correlated to SARS-CoV-2 AKI. AKI group demonstrated greater in-hospital, 14- and 30-day mortality. Nevertheless, this study did not evidence a correlation between the admission CT value and mortality or AKI.

Conclusion

Admission CT values provide limited information regarding the dynamic viral load and varying hospitalization time points; thus, they may not be reliable for predicting the prognosis and complications of COVID-19 in all populations. Further studies with serial CT measurements or symptom onset time adjustment are recommended.

Novel machine-learning analysis of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a subclinical nonhuman primate model using radiomics and blood biomarkers

Detection of the physiological response to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is challenging in the absence of overt clinical signs but remains necessary to understand a full subclinical disease spectrum. In this study, our objective was to use radiomics (from computed tomography images) and blood biomarkers to predict SARS-CoV-2 infection in a nonhuman primate model (NHP) with inapparent clinical disease. To accomplish this aim, we built machine-learning models to predict SARS-CoV-2 infection in a NHP model of subclinical disease using baseline-normalized radiomic and blood sample analyses data from SARS-CoV-2-exposed and control (mock-exposed) crab-eating macaques. We applied a novel adaptation of the minimum redundancy maximum relevance (mRMR) feature-selection technique, called mRMR-permute, for statistically-thresholded and unbiased feature selection. Through performance comparison of eight machine-learning models trained on 14 feature sets, we demonstrated that a logistic regression model trained on the mRMR-permute feature set can predict SARS-CoV-2 infection with very high accuracy. Eighty-nine percent of mRMR-permute selected features had strong and significant class effects. Through this work, we identified a key set of radiomic and blood biomarkers that can be used to predict infection status even in the absence of clinical signs. Furthermore, we proposed and demonstrated the utility of a novel feature-selection technique called mRMR-permute. This work lays the foundation for the prediction and classification of SARS-CoV-2 disease severity.

Investigation of Initial Viral Loads and Patient Characteristics as Predictors of COVID-19 Outcomes: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Limited evidence exists on whether initial viral load and patient characteristics can predict unfavorable outcomes in future outbreaks of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This retrospective cohort study examined the relationship between the initial viral load, patient characteristics, and outcomes during the second-wave COVID-19 outbreak in West Sumatra, Indonesia. We analyzed the COVID-19 patients admitted to a secondary hospital between the 1 June 2021 and the 31 August 2021. The initial viral load was determined using the real-time quantitative-polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) cycle threshold (Ct) value, categorized as low (LIVL, Ct > 20) or high (HIVL, Ct ≤ 20). Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between the initial viral load, age, sex, vaccination status, comorbidities, and outcomes, including disease severity, hospital stay length, ICU admission, invasive ventilation, and in-hospital mortality. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the area under the curve (AUC) were used to assess the diagnostic performance of the initial Ct values in predicting COVID-19 outcomes. The study included 373 patients (median age [range]: 48 [0-94]; male: 40.21%; HIVL: 34.85%; unvaccinated: 86.06%; comorbidities: 52.01%). The HIVL patients significantly had a lower risk of developing severe/critical outcomes (OR: 0.506; 95% CI: 0.310-0.825; p = 0.006) and needing invasive ventilation (OR: 0.290; CI: 0.098-0.854; p = 0.025). The Ct value used to indicate severe/critical outcomes was 23.57. More severe outcomes were significantly observed in LIVL patients, those aged >60 years, males, unvaccinated individuals, and those with comorbidities. This study emphasizes the importance of primary prevention, early screening, and immediate care for COVID-19 in saving lives.

Viral load and its relationship with the inflammatory response and clinical outcomes in hospitalization of patients with COVID-19

Background

The values of viral load in COVID-19 disease have gained relevance, seeking to understand its prognostic value and its behavior in the course of the disease, although there have been no conclusive results. In this study we sought to analyze serum viral load as a predictor of clinical outcome of the disease, as well as its association with inflammatory markers.

Methods

An observational and retrospective study in a private hospital in North Mexico, patients with SARS-COV-2 infection confirmed by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) were followed through clinical outcome, viral load measurement, quantification of inflammatory markers and lymphocyte subpopulations. For the analysis, multiple regression models were performed. Results: We studied 105 patients [47 (SD 1.46) years old, 68.6% men]. After analysis with multiple regression models, there was an association between viral load at admission and vaccination schedule (β-value=-0.279, p= 0.007), age (β-value= 0.010, p = 0.050), mechanical ventilation (β-value= 0.872, p = 0.007), lactate dehydrogenase (β-value= 1.712, p= 0.004), D-dimer values at admission (β-value= 0.847, p= 0.013) and subpopulation of B lymphocytes at admission (β-value= -0.527, p= 0.042). There was no association with days of hospitalization, use of nasal prongs or high flux mask. Peak viral load (10 days after symptoms onset) was associated with peak IL-6 (β-value= 0.470, p= 0.011). Peak viral load matched with peak procalcitonin and minimal lymphocyte values. C-reactive protein peak was before the peak of viral load. The minimum value viral load was documented on day 12 after symptom onset; it matched with the minimum values of IL-6 and ferritin, and the peak of D-dimer.

Conclusions

SARS-COV-2 admission viral load is associated with vaccination status, mechanical ventilation, and different inflammatory markers.

Pneumonia Frequency and Severity in Patients With Symptomatic COVID-19: Impact of mRNA and Adenovirus Vector Vaccines

BACKGROUND. Additional evidence of the role of COVID-19 vaccination in reducing pneumonia frequency and severity in the setting of breakthrough infection could help combat ongoing vaccine hesitancy. OBJECTIVE. The purpose of this article was to compare the frequency and severity of pneumonia on chest CT in patients with confirmed COVID-19 between patients who are unvaccinated and those who are fully vaccinated by messenger RNA (mRNA) or adenovirus vector vaccines. METHODS. This retrospective single-center study included 467 patients (250 men, 217 women; mean age, 65 ± 17 [SD] years) who underwent chest CT between December 15, 2021, and February 18, 2022, during hospitalization for symptomatic COVID-19, confirmed by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction assay. A total of 216 patients were unvaccinated, and 167 and 84 patients were fully vaccinated (defined as receipt of the second dose at least 14 days before COVID-19 diagnosis) by the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine or the ChAdOx1-S adenovirus vector vaccine, respectively. Semiquantitative CT severity scores (CT-SS; 0-25 scale) were determined; CT-SS of 0 indicated absence of pneumonia. Presence of bilateral involvement was assessed in patients with pneumonia. Associations were explored between vaccination status and CT findings. RESULTS. The frequency of the absence of pneumonia was 15% (32/216) in unvaccinated patients, 29% (24/84) in patients fully vaccinated with ChAdOx1-S vaccine, and 51% (85/167) in patients fully vaccinated with BNT162b2 vaccine (unvaccinated and ChAdOx1-S vs BNT162b2: p < .001; unvaccinated vs ChAdOx1-S: p = .08). Mean CT-SS was significantly higher in unvaccinated patients (9.7 ± 6.1) than in patients fully vaccinated with BNT162b2 (5.2 ± 6.1) or ChAdOx1-S (6.2 ± 5.9) vaccine (both p < .001). Full vaccination was significantly associated with CT-SS independent of patient age and sex (estimate = -4.46; p < .001). Frequency of bilateral lung involvement was significantly higher in unvaccinated patients (158/184, 86%) and in patients fully vaccinated with ChAdOx1-S vaccine (54/60, 90%) than in patients fully vaccinated with BNT162b2 vaccine (47/82, 57%) (both p < .001). CONCLUSION. Pneumonia frequency and severity were lower in patients with full vaccination by mRNA and adenovirus vector vaccines who experienced breakthrough infections in comparison with unvaccinated patients. CLINICAL IMPACT. The visual observation by radiologic imaging of the protective effect of vaccination on lung injury in patients with breakthrough infections provides additional evidence supporting the clinical benefit of vaccination.

A Randomized Phase 2/3 Study of Ensitrelvir, a Novel Oral SARS-CoV-2 3C-Like Protease Inhibitor, in Japanese Patients with Mild-to-Moderate COVID-19 or Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection: Results of the Phase 2a Part

This multicenter, double-blind, phase 2a part of a phase 2/3 study assessed the efficacy and safety of ensitrelvir, a novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) 3C-like protease inhibitor, in Japanese patients with mild-to-moderate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) or asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Sixty-nine patients were randomized (1:1:1) to orally receive 5-day ensitrelvir fumaric acid (375 mg on day 1 followed by 125 mg daily, or 750 mg on day 1 followed by 250 mg daily) or placebo and followed up until day 28. The primary outcome was the change from baseline in the SARS-CoV-2 viral titer. A total of 16, 14, and 17 patients in the ensitrelvir 125 mg, ensitrelvir 250 mg, and placebo groups, respectively, were included in the intention-to-treat population (mean age: 38.0 to 40.4 years). On day 4, the change from baseline in SARS-CoV-2 viral titer (log10 50% tissue culture infectious dose/mL) in patients with positive viral titer and viral RNA at baseline was greater with ensitrelvir 125 mg (mean [standard deviation], -2.42 [1.42]; P = 0.0712) and 250 mg (-2.81 [1.21]; P = 0.0083) versus placebo (-1.54 [0.74]); ensitrelvir treatment reduced SARS-CoV-2 RNA by -1.4 to -1.5 log10 copies/mL versus placebo. The viral titer and viral RNA were similar across groups on and after day 6. The median time to infectious viral clearance decreased by approximately 50 h with ensitrelvir treatment. All adverse events were mild to moderate. Ensitrelvir treatment demonstrated rapid SARS-CoV-2 clearance and was well tolerated (Japan Registry of Clinical Trials identifier: jRCT2031210350).