Assessing COVID-19 pandemic excess deaths in Brazil: Years 2020 and 2021

Increased COVID-19 mortality in patients with schizophrenia: A retrospective study in Brazil

The risk that COVID-19 poses for mortality risk in individuals with schizophrenia in low- and middle-income countries has only been the subject of a few studies. In this retrospective study, we examined the standardized mortality ratio (SMR), by age group and sex, in a cohort of patients diagnosed with schizophrenia (n = 20,417), with second-generation antipsychotics, in a South Brazilian State database (Paraná-Brazil). We performed a linkage with the Brazilian Mortality Information System database between 2020 and 2021. We also assessed in a logistic regression how clozapine could affect COVID-19 mortality controlling by sex, age, and presence of obesity. A secondary analysis was to compare mortality with SMR due to COVID-19 in individuals with and without obesity. Compared to the State population (8,850,682 individuals), those with schizophrenia had more than two times greater risk of dying from COVID-19 (SMR = 2.21, 95 % CI: 1.90-2.55). Between the ages of 16 and 29, their risk is more than ten times higher than the state population (SMR = 10.18, 95 % CI: 4.73-19.33). Obesity showed an almost twofold risk of dying from COVID-19 in the patient's group (OR = 1.89, 95 % CI: 1.39-2.57). Clozapine was not found as a protector or a risk factor for COVID-19 mortality. In Brazil, a middle-income nation, people with schizophrenia are more likely to die prematurely from COVID-19. The burden of schizophrenia is higher in younger and in patients with obesity.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on excess maternal deaths in Brazil: A two-year assessment

BACKGROUND

Accurate estimates of the COVID-19 pandemic's indirect impacts are crucial, especially in low- and middle-income countries. This study aims to update estimates of excess maternal deaths in Brazil during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

This was an exploratory mixed ecological study using the counterfactual approach. The observed maternal deaths were gathered from the Mortality Information System (SIM) for the period between March 2015 and February 2022. Expected deaths from March 2020 to February 2022 were estimated using quasipoisson generalized additive models, considering quadrimester, age group, and their interaction as predictor variables. Analyses were performed in R version 4.1.2, RStudio, version 2023.03.1+446 and carried out with support from the "mgcv" and "plot_model" libraries.

RESULTS

A total of 5,040 maternal deaths were reported, with varying excess mortality across regions and age groups, resulting in 69% excess maternal mortality throughout Brazil during the first two years of the pandemic. The Southeast region had 50% excess mortality throughout the first two years and 76% excess in the second year. The North region had 69% excess mortality, increasing in the second year, particularly among women aged 20-34. The Northeast region showed 80% excess mortality, with a significant increase in the second year, especially among women aged 35-49. The Central-West region had 75% excess mortality, higher in the second year and statistically significant among women aged 35-49. The South region showed 117% excess mortality, reaching 203% in the second year among women aged 20-34, but no excess mortality in the 10-19 age category.

CONCLUSIONS

Over two years, Brazil saw a significant impact on maternal excess deaths, regardless of region and pandemic year. The highest peak occurred between March and June 2021, emphasizing the importance of timely and effective epidemic responses to prevent avoidable deaths and prepare for new crises.

Excess suicides in Brazil during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic: Gender, regional and age group inequalities

BACKGROUND

While the COVID-19 pandemic's total impact on global mortality is uncertain, an estimated 15 million excess deaths occurred during the first two pandemic years, suggesting that a broad impact, since several causes of death showed a substantial rise.

AIMS

To estimate excess suicides in Brazil and evaluate differences within and between subgroups during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHOD

Based on suicide data from the mortality information system of the Brazilian Ministry of Health, the expected number of suicides was estimated by age group, gender, 4-month periods and regions through quasi-Poisson generalized additive models. Analyses were performed in R software and RStudio.

RESULTS

Between March 2020 and February 2022, 29,295 suicides were reported in Brazil, close to what would be expected (30,116; 95% Confidence Interval (95% CI): [28,009, 32,224]), albeit in males and females aged 30 to 59 years and 60 years and over, there were excess suicides in at least one of the six 4-month periods evaluated, especially in the second pandemic year. In the Southeast region, a 28% increase was observed in women 60 years and older during the second year. In the North region, suicide increased 23% and 32% among women aged 30 to 59 years during the first and second pandemic years, respectively. The Northeast region had a 16% excess in suicides among men aged 30 to 59 years and 61% among women 60 years old and older during the second pandemic year, reaching 83% in July to October 2021.

CONCLUSIONS

During the first 2 pandemic years, the pattern of suicides was not homogeneous in Brazil. There were substantial excess suicides in women aged 30 to 59 years from the North and Northeast, while among the elderly and men there was a consistent pattern in several four-month periods throughout Brazil.

A simulation of undiagnosed population and excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic

Whereas the extent of outbreak of COVID-19 is usually accessed via the number of reported cases and the number of patients succumbed to the disease, the officially recorded overall excess mortality numbers during the pandemic waves, which are significant and often followed the rise and fall of the pandemic waves, put a question mark on the above methodology. Gradually it has been recognized that estimating the size of the undiagnosed population (which includes asymptomatic cases and symptomatic cases but not reported) is also crucial. Here we used the classical mathematical SEIR model having an additional compartment, that is the undiagnosed group in addition to the susceptible, exposed, diagnosed, recovered and deceased groups, to link the undiagnosed COVID-19 cases to the reported excess mortality numbers and thereby try to know the actual size of the disease outbreak. The developed model wase successfully applied to relevant COVID-19 waves in USA (initial months of 2020), South Africa (mid of 2021) and Russia (2020–21) when a large discrepancy between the reported COVID-19 mortality and the overall excess mortality had been noticed.