Simulation models of sugary drink policies: A scoping review

A Narrative Review of Public Health Interventions for Childhood Obesity

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Public health interventions that intervene on macrolevel systems hold the promise of reducing childhood obesity at the population level through prevention. The purpose of this review is to highlight some of the recent and best scientific evidence related to public health interventions for the prevention of childhood obesity. We provide a narrative review of scientific evidence for six categories of public health interventions and their impact on childhood obesity: federal nutrition assistance programs, programs implemented in early care and education centers, interventions to support healthy nutrition and physical activity in schools, community-based programs and policies, labeling policies and marketing to children, and taxes on sugar sweetened beverages (SSB).

RECENT FINDINGS

Federal nutrition assistance programs have the strongest evidence to support reduction in childhood obesity and serve populations with the highest prevalence of childhood obesity. Other interventions including SSB taxes, community-wide interventions, and interventions at schools and early care and education centers also show significant improvements in child weight status. Overall public health interventions have strong evidence to support widespread implementation in service of reducing childhood obesity rates at the population level. To effectively address the recalcitrant childhood obesity epidemic, multi-pronged solutions are needed. The current evidence for public health obesity interventions is consistent with the paradigm that recognizes the importance of macrolevel systems influences on childhood obesity: interventions that are most effective intervene at macrolevels.

A Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Excise Tax in California: Projected Benefits for Population Obesity and Health Equity

INTRODUCTION

Amid the successes of local sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes, interest in state-wide policies has grown. This study evaluated the cost effectiveness of a hypothetical 2-cent-per-ounce excise tax in California and its implications for population health and health equity.

METHODS

Using the Childhood Obesity Intervention Cost-Effectiveness Study microsimulation model, tax impacts on health, health equity, and cost effectiveness over 10 years in California were projected, both overall and stratified by race/ethnicity and income. Expanding on previous models, differences in the effect of intake of SSBs on weight by BMI category were incorporated. Costing was performed in 2020, and analyses were conducted in 2021-2022.

RESULTS

The tax is projected to save $4.55 billion in healthcare costs, prevent 266,000 obesity cases in 2032, and gain 114,000 quality-adjusted life years. Cost-effectiveness metrics, including cost/quality-adjusted life year gained, were cost saving. Spending on SSBs was projected to decrease by $33 per adult and $26 per child overall in the first year. Reductions in obesity prevalence for Black and Hispanic Californians were 1.8 times larger than for White Californians, and reductions for adults with lowest incomes (<130% Federal Poverty Level) were 1.4 times the reduction among those with highest incomes (>350% Federal Poverty Level). The tax is projected to save $112 in obesity-related healthcare costs per $1 invested.

CONCLUSIONS

A state-wide SSB tax in California would be cost saving, lead to reductions in obesity and improvement in SSB-related health equity, and lead to overall improvements in population health. The policy would generate more than $1.6 billion in state tax revenue annually that can also be used to improve health equity.

Implementation costs of sugary drink policies in the United States

To support implementation of important public health policies, policymakers need information about implementation costs over time and across stakeholder groups. We assessed implementation costs of two federal sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) policies of current policy interest and with evidence to support their effects: excise taxes and health warning labels. Our analysis encompassed the entire policy life cycle using the Exploration, Preparation, Implementation, and Sustainment framework. We identified implementation actions using key informant interviews and developed quantitative estimates of implementation costs using published literature and government documents. Results show that implementation costs vary over time and among stakeholders. Explicitly integrating implementation science theory and using mixed methods improved the comprehensiveness of our results. Although this work is specific to federal SSB policies, the process can inform how we understand the costs of many public health policies, providing crucial information for public health policy making.

Childhood Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Consumption: an Agent-Based Model of Context-Specific Reduction Efforts

INTRODUCTION

Despite widespread recognition among public health experts that childhood sugar-sweetened beverage consumption should be reduced, doing so has proven to be a challenge. An agent-based model of early childhood sugar-sweetened beverage consumption was applied to data from three high-quality, longitudinal cohort studies to gain insight into potentially effective intervention strategies across contexts.

METHODS

From 2021 to 2023, a single agent-based model design was applied to data sets derived from three separate cohorts of children followed from infancy to childhood, with very different populations and environments (participants recruited in 1999-2002; 2003-2010; and 2009-2014). After assessing its ability to reproduce observed consumption patterns across cohorts, it was used to simulate potential impacts of multiple intervention strategies across contexts.

RESULTS

Interventions reducing home availability of sugar-sweetened beverages consistently had the largest potential effects. Impact differed between cohort settings: a complete decrease in availability resulted in an estimated 87% decrease in overall early childhood consumption for one of the cohorts, compared with 61% and 54% in the others. Reducing availability in center-based child care resulted in substantially greater reduction in one cohort relative to the other two.

CONCLUSIONS

There is untapped potential for strategies targeting children's sugar-sweetened beverage consumption in the home, but in some instances, other approaches might also yield meaningful effects. Tailoring approach to setting may be important, and agent-based models can be informative for doing so. This agent-based model has broad generalizability and potential to serve as a tool for designing effective, context-specific strategies to reduce childhood sugar-sweetened beverage consumption.