Longitudinal kinetics of RBD+ antibodies in COVID-19 recovered patients over 14 months

Durability of immunity and clinical protection in nursing home residents following bivalent SARS-CoV-2 vaccination

BACKGROUND

Bivalent SARS-CoV-2 vaccines were developed to counter increasing susceptibility to emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants. We evaluated the durability of immunity and protection following first bivalent vaccination among nursing home residents.

METHODS

We evaluated anti-spike and neutralization titers from blood in 653 community nursing home residents before and after each monovalent booster, and a bivalent vaccine. Concurrent clinical outcomes were evaluated using electronic health record data from a separate cohort of 3783 residents of Veterans Affairs (VA) nursing homes who had received at least the primary series monovalent vaccination. Using target trial emulation, we compared VA residents who did and did not receive the bivalent vaccine to measure vaccine effectiveness against infection, hospitalization, and death.

FINDINGS

In the community cohort, Omicron BA.5 neutralization activity rose after each monovalent and bivalent booster vaccination regardless of prior infection history. Titers declined over time but six months post-bivalent vaccination, BA.5 neutralization persisted at detectable levels in 75% of infection-naive and 98% of prior-infected individuals. In the VA nursing home cohort, bivalent vaccine added effectiveness to monovalent booster vaccination by 18.5% for infection (95% confidence interval (CI) -5.6, 34.0%), and 29.2% for hospitalization or death (95% CI -14.2, 56.2%) over five months.

INTERPRETATION

The level of protection declined after bivalent vaccination over a 6 month period and may open a window of added vulnerability before the next updated vaccine becomes available, suggesting a subset of nursing home residents may benefit from an additional vaccination booster.

FUNDING

CDC, NIH, VHA.

Impact of immune evasion, waning and boosting on dynamics of population mixing between a vaccinated majority and unvaccinated minority

BACKGROUND

We previously demonstrated that when vaccines prevent infection, the dynamics of mixing between vaccinated and unvaccinated sub-populations is such that use of imperfect vaccines markedly decreases risk for vaccinated people, and for the population overall. Risks to vaccinated people accrue disproportionately from contact with unvaccinated people. In the context of the emergence of Omicron SARS-CoV-2 and evolving understanding of SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology, we updated our analysis to evaluate whether our earlier conclusions remained valid.

METHODS

We modified a previously published Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 with two connected sub-populations: vaccinated and unvaccinated, with non-random mixing between groups. Our expanded model incorporates diminished vaccine efficacy for preventing infection with the emergence of Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variants, waning immunity, the impact of prior immune experience on infectivity, "hybrid" effects of infection in previously vaccinated individuals, and booster vaccination. We evaluated the dynamics of an epidemic within each subgroup and in the overall population over a 10-year time horizon.

RESULTS

Even with vaccine efficacy as low as 20%, and in the presence of waning immunity, the incidence of COVID-19 in the vaccinated subpopulation was lower than that among the unvaccinated population across the full 10-year time horizon. The cumulative risk of infection was 3-4 fold higher among unvaccinated people than among vaccinated people, and unvaccinated people contributed to infection risk among vaccinated individuals at twice the rate that would have been expected based on the frequency of contacts. These findings were robust across a range of assumptions around the rate of waning immunity, the impact of "hybrid immunity", frequency of boosting, and the impact of prior infection on infectivity in unvaccinated people.

INTERPRETATION

Although the emergence of the Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2 has diminished the protective effects of vaccination against infection with SARS-CoV-2, updating our earlier model to incorporate loss of immunity, diminished vaccine efficacy and a longer time horizon, does not qualitatively change our earlier conclusions. Vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 continues to diminish the risk of infection among vaccinated people and in the population as a whole. By contrast, the risk of infection among vaccinated people accrues disproportionately from contact with unvaccinated people.

Long term anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody kinetics and correlate of protection against Omicron BA.1/BA.2 infection

Binding antibody levels against SARS-CoV-2 have shown to be correlates of protection against infection with pre-Omicron lineages. This has been challenged by the emergence of immune-evasive variants, notably the Omicron sublineages, in an evolving immune landscape with high levels of cumulative incidence and vaccination coverage. This in turn limits the use of widely available commercial high-throughput methods to quantify binding antibodies as a tool to monitor protection at the population-level. Here we show that anti-Spike RBD antibody levels, as quantified by the immunoassay used in this study, are an indirect correlate of protection against Omicron BA.1/BA.2 for individuals previously infected by SARS-CoV-2. Leveraging repeated serological measurements between April 2020 and December 2021 on 1083 participants of a population-based cohort in Geneva, Switzerland, and using antibody kinetic modeling, we found up to a three-fold reduction in the hazard of having a documented positive SARS-CoV-2 infection during the Omicron BA.1/BA.2 wave for anti-S antibody levels above 800 IU/mL (HR 0.30, 95% CI 0.22-0.41). However, we did not detect a reduction in hazard among uninfected participants. These results provide reassuring insights into the continued interpretation of SARS-CoV-2 binding antibody measurements as an independent marker of protection at both the individual and population levels.

Effect of host factors and COVID-19 infection on the humoral immune repertoire in treated HIV

People with HIV (PWH) appear to be at higher risk for suboptimal pathogen responses and for worse COVID-19 outcomes, but the effects of host factors and COVID-19 on the humoral repertoire remain unclear. We assessed the antibody isotype/subclass and Fc-receptor binding Luminex arrays of non-SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV-2 humoral responses among antiretroviral therapy-treated (ART-treated) PWH. Among the entire cohort, COVID-19 infection was associated with higher cytomegalovirus (CMV) responses (vs. the COVID- cohort ), potentially signifying increased susceptibility or a consequence of persistent inflammation. Among the COVID+ participants, (a) higher BMI was associated with a striking amplification of SARS-CoV-2 responses, suggesting exaggerated inflammatory responses, and (b) lower nadir CD4 was associated with higher SARS-CoV-2 IgM and FcγRIIB binding capacity, indicating poorly functioning extrafollicular and inhibitory responses. Among the COVID-19- participants, female sex, older age, and lower nadir CD4 were associated with unique repertoire shifts. In this first comprehensive assessment of the humoral repertoire in a global cohort of PWH, we identify distinct SARS-CoV-2-specific humoral immune profiles among PWH with obesity or lower nadir CD4+ T cell count, underlining plausible mechanisms associated with worse COVID-19-related outcomes in this setting. Host factors associated with the humoral repertoire in the COVID-19- cohort enhance our understanding of these important shifts among PWH.

Sustained seropositivity up to 20.5 months after COVID-19

This study evaluated the persistence of IgM, IgA, and IgG to SARS-CoV-2 spike and nucleocapsid antigens up to 616 days since the onset of symptoms in a longitudinal cohort of 247 primary health care workers from Barcelona, Spain, followed up since the start of the pandemic. The study also assesses factors affecting antibody levels, including comorbidities and the responses to variants of concern as well as the frequency of reinfections. Despite a gradual and significant decline in antibody levels with time, seropositivity to five SARS-CoV-2 antigens combined was always higher than 90% over the whole study period. In a subset of 23 participants who had not yet been vaccinated by November 2021, seropositivity remained at 95.65% (47.83% IgM, 95.65% IgA, 95.65% IgG). IgG seropositivity against Alpha and Delta predominant variants was comparable to that against the Wuhan variant, while it was lower for Gamma and Beta (minority) variants and for IgA and IgM. Antibody levels at the time point closest to infection were associated with age, smoking, obesity, hospitalization, fever, anosmia/hypogeusia, chest pain, and hypertension in multivariable regression models. Up to 1 year later, just before the massive roll out of vaccination, antibody levels were associated with age, occupation, hospitalization, duration of symptoms, anosmia/hypogeusia, fever, and headache. In addition, tachycardia and cutaneous symptoms associated with slower antibody decay, and oxygen supply with faster antibody decay. Eight reinfections (3.23%) were detected in low responders, which is consistent with a sustained protective role for anti-spike naturally acquired antibodies. Stable persistence of IgG and IgA responses and cross-recognition of the predominant variants circulating in the 2020-2021 period indicate long-lasting and largely variant-transcending humoral immunity in the initial 20.5 months of the pandemic, in the absence of vaccination.