HIV treatment produces economic returns through increased work and education, and warrants continued US support

Analysis of economic and educational spillover effects in PEPFAR countries

The United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) has been credited with saving millions lives and helping to change the trajectory of the global human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic. This study assesses whether PEPFAR has had impacts beyond health by examining changes in five economic and educational outcomes in PEPFAR countries: the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita growth rate; the share of girls and share of boys, respectively, who are out of school; and female and male employment rates. We constructed a panel data set for 157 low- and middle-income countries between 1990 and 2018 to estimate the macroeconomic impacts of PEPFAR. Our PEPFAR group included 90 countries that had received PEPFAR support over the period. Our comparison group included 67 low- and middle-income countries that had not received any PEPFAR support or had received minimal PEPFAR support (<$1M or <$.05 per capita) between 2004 and 2018. We used differences in differences (DID) methods to estimate the program impacts on the five economic and educational outcome measures. This study finds that PEPFAR is associated with increases in the GDP per capita growth rate and educational outcomes. In some models, we find that PEPFAR is associated with reductions in male and female employment. However, these effects appear to be due to trends in the comparison group countries rather than programmatic impacts of PEPFAR. We show that these impacts are most pronounced in COP countries receiving the highest levels of PEPFAR investment.

Intergenerational spillover effects of antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa: a scoping review and future directions for research

BACKGROUND

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) may influence individuals who do not receive the intervention but who are connected in some way to the person who does. Relatively little is known, however, about the size and scope of, what we term, spillover effects of ART. We explored intergenerational spillover effects of ART in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and identified several directions for future research.

METHODS

We conducted a scoping review between March and April 2022. We systematically searched PubMed, PsycINFO, EconLit, OTseeker, AIDSInfo, Web of Science, CINHAL, Google Scholar and African Index Medicus. We analysed the distribution of included studies over time and summarised their findings. We examined the intergenerational impact of ART provision to working-age adults living with HIV on children ('downward' spillover effects) and older adults ('upward' spillover effects). We categorised types of intergenerational spillover effects according to broad themes which emerged from our analysis of included studies.

FINDINGS

We identified 26 studies published between 2005 and 2022 with 16 studies assessing spillover effects from adults to children (downward), and 1 study explicitly assessing spillover effects from working-age adults to older adults (upward). The remaining studies did not fully specify the direction of spillover effects. Most spillover effects of ART to household and family members were beneficial and included improvements in wealth, labour market outcomes, health outcomes and health services utilisation, schooling, and household composition. Both children and older adults benefited from ART availability among adults. Detrimental spillover effects were only reported in three studies and included financial and opportunity costs associated with health services utilisation and food insecurity in the first year after ART.

CONCLUSIONS

ART may lead to substantial spillover effects across generations and sectors in SSA. Further research is needed to capitalise on positive spillover effects while mitigating potential negative spillover effects. The returns to investments in large-scale health interventions such as ART may be underestimated without considering these societal benefits.

The longitudinal impact of employment, retirement and disability status on depressive symptoms among men living with HIV in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study

Many persons living with HIV (PLWH) either reduced their employment capacity or stopped work completely due to disease progression. With the advent of effective antiretroviral therapy, some PLWH were able to return to the workforce and many are now transitioning into retirement. We examined the histories of employment, retirement and disability status on depression among 1,497 Participants living with HIV from 1997 to 2015 in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study. Data were collected on depressive symptoms, employment, retirement, disability status as well as HIV-related and sociodemographic characteristics. Employment, retirement and disability status were lagged 2 years to assess whether the risk of depression at a given observation were temporally predicted by each respective status, adjusting for prior depressive symptoms and covariates. Being employed (aOR: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.71-0.82) had lower odds of depression risk two years later compared to those unemployed. There were higher odds of depression risk associated with disability (aOR: 1.43; 95% CI: 1.32-1.54) versus those not on disability. Retirement status was not associated with the risk of depressive symptoms. These findings could help inform policies and employment programs to facilitate the return to work for PLWH who are willing and able to work.

Research for health in the Americas

Evolution of health research to reshape national health agendas

Task-shifting alcohol interventions for HIV+ persons in Kenya: a cost-benefit analysis

Background

Among HIV+ patients, alcohol use is a highly prevalent risk factor for both HIV transmission and poor adherence to HIV treatment. The large-scale implementation of effective interventions for treating alcohol problems remains a challenge in low-income countries with generalized HIV epidemics. It is essential to consider an intervention’s cost-effectiveness in dollars-per-health-outcome, and the long-term economic impact —or “return on investment” in monetary terms.

Methods

We conducted a cost-benefit analysis, measuring economic return on investment, of a task-shifted cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) intervention delivered by paraprofessionals to reduce alcohol use in a modeled cohort of 13,440 outpatients in Kenya. In our base-case, we estimated the costs and economic benefits from a societal perspective across a six-year time horizon, with a 3% annual discount rate. Costs included all costs associated with training and administering task-shifted CBT therapy. Benefits included the economic impact of lowered HIV incidence as well as the improvements in household and labor-force productivity. We conducted univariate and multivariate probabilistic sensitivity analyses to test the robustness of our results.

Results

Under the base case, total costs for CBT rollout was $554,000, the value of benefits were $628,000, and the benefit-to-cost ratio was 1.13. Sensitivity analyses showed that under most assumptions, the benefit-to-cost ratio remained above unity indicating that the intervention was cost-saving (i.e., had positive return on investment). The duration of the treatment effect most effected the results in sensitivity analyses.

Conclusions

CBT can be effectively and economically task-shifted to paraprofessionals in Kenya. The intervention can generate not only reductions in morbidity and mortality, but also economic savings for the health system in the medium and long term. The findings have implications for other countries with generalized HIV epidemics, high prevalence of alcohol consumption, and shortages of mental health professionals.

Trial registration

This paper uses data derived from “Cognitive Behavioral Treatment to Reduce Alcohol Use Among HIV-Infected Kenyans (KHBS)” with ClinicalTrials.gov registration NCT00792519 on 11/17/2008; and preliminary data from “A Stage 2 Cognitive-behavioral Trial: Reduce Alcohol First in Kenya Intervention” (NCT01503255, registered on 12/16/2011).

PEPFAR Funding Associated With An Increase In Employment Among Males in Ten Sub-Saharan African Countries

The President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) has provided billions of US tax dollars to expand HIV treatment, care, and prevention programs in sub-Saharan Africa. This investment has generated significant health gains, but much less is known about PEPFAR's population-level economic effects. We used a difference-in-differences approach to compare employment trends between ten countries that received a large amount of PEPFAR funding (focus countries) and eleven countries that received little or no funding (control countries). We found that PEPFAR was associated with a 13 percent differential increase in employment among males in focus countries, compared to control countries. However, we observed no change in employment among females. In addition, we found that increasing PEPFAR per capita funding by $100 was associated with a 9.1-percentage-point increase in employment among males. This rise in employment generates economic benefits equal to half of PEPFAR's cost. These findings suggest that PEPFAR's economic impact should be taken into account when making aid allocation decisions.

Ability to Work and Employment Rates in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-1-Infected Individuals Receiving Combination Antiretroviral Therapy: The Swiss HIV Cohort Study

Background.  Limited data exist on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals' ability to work after receiving combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). We aimed to investigate predictors of regaining full ability to work at 1 year after starting cART. Methods.  Antiretroviral-naive HIV-infected individuals <60 years who started cART from January 1998 through December 2012 within the framework of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study were analyzed. Inability to work was defined as a medical judgment of the patient's ability to work as 0%. Results.  Of 5800 subjects, 4382 (75.6%) were fully able to work, 471 (8.1%) able to work part time, and 947 (16.3%) were unable to work at baseline. Of the 947 patients unable to work, 439 (46.3%) were able to work either full time or part time at 1 year of treatment. Predictors of recovering full ability to work were non-white ethnicity (odds ratio [OR], 2.06; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.20-3.54), higher education (OR, 4.03; 95% CI, 2.47-7.48), and achieving HIV-ribonucleic acid <50 copies/mL (OR, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.20-2.80). Older age (OR, 0.55; 95% CI, .42-.72, per 10 years older) and psychiatric disorders (OR, 0.24; 95% CI, .13-.47) were associated with lower odds of ability to work. Recovering full ability to work at 1 year increased from 24.0% in 1998-2001 to 41.2% in 2009-2012, but the employment rates did not increase. Conclusions.  Regaining full ability to work depends primarily on achieving viral suppression, absence of psychiatric comorbidity, and favorable psychosocial factors. The discrepancy between patients' ability to work and employment rates indicates barriers to reintegration of persons infected with HIV.

Antiretroviral therapy for the prevention of HIV transmission: what will it take?

The evidence in support of use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for prevention of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission is encouraging and has stimulated optimism for achieving a dramatic change in the trajectory of the HIV epidemic. Yet, there are substantial challenges that, if not addressed, could be the Achilles' heel for this concept. These challenges require strengthening every step of the HIV care continuum, including expansion of HIV testing to reach all those with HIV infection, effective linkage to and retention in care, timely initiation of ART, and high levels of treatment adherence with viral load suppression. Also important is the identification of individuals with acute HIV infection whose contribution to HIV transmission may be substantial. Implementation research is needed to identify strategies that address these challenges and to determine the efficacy of ART for prevention in key populations as well as to evaluate the effectiveness of combination strategies for HIV prevention at the population level.

Cost-effectiveness of HIV treatment as prevention in serodiscordant couples

BACKGROUND

The cost-effectiveness of early antiretroviral therapy (ART) in persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in serodiscordant couples is not known. Using a computer simulation of the progression of HIV infection and data from the HIV Prevention Trials Network 052 study, we projected the cost-effectiveness of early ART for such persons.

METHODS

For HIV-infected partners in serodiscordant couples in South Africa and India, we compared the early initiation of ART with delayed ART. Five-year and lifetime outcomes included cumulative HIV transmissions, life-years, costs, and cost-effectiveness. We classified early ART as very cost-effective if its incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was less than the annual per capita gross domestic product (GDP; $8,100 in South Africa and $1,500 in India), as cost-effective if the ratio was less than three times the GDP, and as cost-saving if it resulted in a decrease in total costs and an increase in life-years, as compared with delayed ART.

RESULTS

In South Africa, early ART prevented opportunistic diseases and was cost-saving over a 5-year period; over a lifetime, it was very cost-effective ($590 per life-year saved). In India, early ART was cost-effective ($1,800 per life-year saved) over a 5-year period and very cost-effective ($530 per life-year saved) over a lifetime. In both countries, early ART prevented HIV transmission over short periods, but longer survival attenuated this effect; the main driver of life-years saved was a clinical benefit for treated patients. Early ART remained very cost-effective over a lifetime under most modeled assumptions in the two countries.

CONCLUSIONS

In South Africa, early ART was cost-saving over a 5-year period. In both South Africa and India, early ART was projected to be very cost-effective over a lifetime. With individual, public health, and economic benefits, there is a compelling case for early ART for serodiscordant couples in resource-limited settings. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and others.).

Financing HIV programming: how much should low- and middle-income countries and their donors pay?

Global HIV control funding falls short of need. To maximize health outcomes, it is critical that national governments sustain reasonable commitments, and that international donor assistance be distributed according to country needs and funding gaps. We develop a country classification framework in terms of actual versus expected national domestic funding, considering resource needs and donor financing. With UNAIDS and World Bank data, we examine domestic and donor HIV program funding in relation to need in 84 low- and middle-income countries. We estimate expected domestic contributions per person living with HIV (PLWH) as a function of per capita income, relative size of the health sector, and per capita foreign debt service. Countries are categorized according to levels of actual versus expected domestic contributions, and resource gap. Compared to national resource needs (UNAIDS Investment Framework), we identify imbalances among countries in actual versus expected domestic and donor contributions: 17 countries, with relatively high HIV prevalence and GNI per capita, have domestic funding below expected (median per PLWH $143 and $376, respectively), yet total available funding including from donors would exceed the need ($368 and $305, respectively) if domestic contribution equaled expected. Conversely, 27 countries have actual domestic funding above the expected (medians $294 and $149) but total (domestic+donor) funding does not meet estimated need ($685 and $1,173). Across the 84 countries, in 2009, estimated resource need totaled $10.3 billion, actual domestic contributions $5.1 billion and actual donor contributions $3.7 billion. If domestic contributions would increase to the expected level in countries where the actual was below expected, total domestic contributions would increase to $7.4 billion, turning a funding gap of $1.5 billion into a surplus of $0.8 billion. Even with imperfect funding and resource-need data, the proposed country classification could help improve coherence and efficiency in domestic and international allocations.