Definitive care for the critically ill during a disaster: medical resources for surge capacity: from a Task Force for Mass Critical Care summit meeting, January 26-27, 2007, Chicago, IL

A Multisite Investigation of Areas for Improvement in COVID-19 Surge Capacity Management

The congressionally authorized National Disaster Medical System Pilot Program was created in December 2019 to strengthen the medical surge capability, capacity, and interoperability of affiliated healthcare facilities in 5 regions across the United States. The COVID-19 pandemic provided an unprecedented opportunity to learn how participating healthcare facilities handled medical surge events during an active public health emergency. We applied a modified version of the Barbisch and Koenig 4-S framework (staff, stuff, space, systems) to analyze COVID-19 surge management practices implemented by healthcare stakeholders at 5 pilot sites. In total, 32 notable practices were identified to increase surge capacity during the COVID-19 pandemic that have potential applications for other healthcare facilities. We found that systems was the most prevalent domain of surge capacity among the identified practices. Systems and staff were discussed across all 5 pilot sites and were the 2 domains co-occurring most often within each surge management practice. These results can inform strategies for scaling up and optimizing medical surge capability, capacity, and interoperability of healthcare facilities nationwide. This study also specifies areas of surge capacity worthy of strategic focus in the pilot's planning and implementation efforts while more broadly informing the US healthcare system's response to future large-scale, medical surge events.

The pharmacist's role in disaster research response

PURPOSE

The need for high-quality research during disaster responses has been well described in the literature, and such research is supported by efforts at the federal level through the National Institutes of Health Disaster Research Response (DR2) Program. This article describes the fourth DR2 workshop with a specific focus on opportunities for pharmacists to get involved with disaster research efforts.

SUMMARY

Pharmacists have historically played a significant role in disaster planning and response, and there are a number of opportunities for pharmacists to bring their unique perspective, positioning, and skills to disaster research response (ie, onsite and other research on the medical and public health aspects of disasters and public health emergencies). In February 2019, the fourth DR2 workshop was held in Tucson, AZ, in conjunction with the University of Arizona College of Medicine-Tucson, the university's Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona College of Pharmacy, and the university's Bio5 Institute to explore clinical and population-based research in a simulated disaster setting. This article describes the workshop and discusses several opportunities for pharmacists to design, lead, and support research efforts during disaster scenarios through involvement in research areas including clinical, operational, educational, and logistic aspects of pharmacy practice.

CONCLUSION

Due to their positioning throughout health systems, unique perspective, training, and skills, pharmacists are uniquely situated to play an important role in disaster research response.

Preparedness of ICU networks for pandemics

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The recent COVID-19 outbreak has clearly shown how epidemics/pandemics can challenge developed countries' healthcare systems. Proper management of equipment and human resources is critical to provide adequate medical care to all patients admitted to the hospital and the ICU for both pandemic-related and unrelated reasons.

RECENT FINDINGS

Appropriate separate paths for infected and noninfected patients and prompt isolation of infected critical patients in dedicated ICUs play a pivotal role in limiting the contagions and optimizing resources during pandemics. The key to handle these challenging events is to learn from past experiences and to be prepared for future occurrences. Hospital space should be redesigned to quickly increase medical and critical care capacity, and healthcare workers (critical and noncritical) should be trained in advance.

SUMMARY

A targeted improvement of hospital and ICU protocols will increase medical care quality for patients admitted to the hospital for any clinical reasons during a pandemic.

Evaluation of Respiratory Therapist Extender Comfort With Mechanical Ventilation During COVID-19 Pandemic

BACKGROUND

Staffing strategies used to meet the needs of respiratory care departments during the COVID-19 pandemic included the deployment of respiratory therapist extenders. The purpose of this study was to evaluate respiratory therapist extenders' comfort level with critical care ventilators while caring for patients with COVID-19. To our knowledge, this is the first study to evaluate the deployment of certified registered nurse anesthetists (CRNAs) in a critical care setting.

METHODS

A qualitative survey method was used to assess CRNA experience with critical care ventilators. Prior to deployment in the ICU, CRNAs were trained by clinical lead respiratory therapists. Education included respiratory clinical practices and ventilator management. Sixty-minute sessions were held with demonstration stations set up in ICUs for hands-on experience.

RESULTS

Fifty-six CRNAs responded to our survey (63%). A mean ± SD of 9.48 ± 12.27 h was spent training prior to deployment in the ICU. CRNAs were at the bedside a mean ± SD of 73.0 ± 40.6 h during the pandemic. While CRNA comfort level with critical care ventilators increased significantly (P < .001) from the beginning to the end of their work experience, no statistically significant differences were found between CRNA comfort based on years of experience. Differences in comfort level were not found after training (chi-squared test 23.82, P = .09) or after ICU experience was completed (chi-squared test = 15.99, P = .45). Similarly, mean comfort level did not increase based on the number of hours spent working in the ICU (chi-squared test = 13.67, P = .55).

CONCLUSIONS

Comfort level with mechanical ventilation increased for CRNAs working alongside respiratory therapists during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Computational simulation to assess patient safety of uncompensated COVID-19 two-patient ventilator sharing using the Pulse Physiology Engine

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic is stretching medical resources internationally, sometimes creating ventilator shortages that complicate clinical and ethical situations. The possibility of needing to ventilate multiple patients with a single ventilator raises patient health and safety concerns in addition to clinical conditions needing treatment. Wherever ventilators are employed, additional tubing and splitting adaptors may be available. Adjustable flow-compensating resistance for differences in lung compliance on individual limbs may not be readily implementable. By exploring a number and range of possible contributing factors using computational simulation without risk of patient harm, this paper attempts to define useful bounds for ventilation parameters when compensatory resistance in limbs of a shared breathing circuit is not possible. This desperate approach to shared ventilation support would be a last resort when alternatives have been exhausted.

Methods

A whole-body computational physiology model (using lumped parameters) was used to simulate each patient being ventilated. The primary model of a single patient with a dedicated ventilator was augmented to model two patients sharing a single ventilator. In addition to lung mechanics or estimation of CO₂ and pH expected for set ventilation parameters (considerations of lung physiology alone), full physiological simulation provides estimates of additional values for oxyhemoglobin saturation, arterial oxygen tension, and other patient parameters. A range of ventilator settings and patient characteristics were simulated for paired patients.

Findings

To be useful for clinicians, attention has been directed to clinically available parameters. These simulations show patient outcome during multi-patient ventilation is most closely correlated to lung compliance, oxygenation index, oxygen saturation index, and end-tidal carbon dioxide of individual patients. The simulated patient outcome metrics were satisfactory when the lung compliance difference between two patients was less than 12 mL/cmH₂O, and the oxygen saturation index difference was less than 2 mmHg.

Interpretation

In resource-limited regions of the world, the COVID-19 pandemic will result in equipment shortages. While single-patient ventilation is preferable, if that option is unavailable and ventilator sharing using limbs without flow resistance compensation is the only available alternative, these simulations provide a conceptual framework and guidelines for clinical patient selection.

Critical Care Demand and Intensive Care Supply for Patients in Japan with COVID-19 at the Time of the State of Emergency Declaration in April 2020: A Descriptive Analysis

Background and objectives: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is overwhelming Japan's intensive care capacity. This study aimed to determine the number of patients with COVID-19 who required intensive care and to compare the numbers with Japan's intensive care capacity. Materials and Methods: Publicly available datasets were used to obtain the number of confirmed patients with COVID-19 undergoing mechanical ventilation and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) between 15 February and 19 July 2020 to determine and compare intensive care unit (ICU) and attending bed needs for patients with COVID-19, and to estimate peak ICU demands in Japan. Results: During the epidemic peak in late April, 11,443 patients (1.03/10,000 adults) had been infected, 373 patients (0.034/10,000 adults) were in ICU, 312 patients (0.028/10,000 adults) were receiving mechanical ventilation, and 62 patients (0.0056/10,000 adults) were under ECMO per day. At the peak of the epidemic, the number of infected patients was 651% of designated beds, and the number of patients requiring intensive care was 6.0% of ICU beds, 19.1% of board-certified intensivists, and 106% of designated medical institutions in Japan. Conclusions: The number of critically ill patients with COVID-19 continued to rise during the pandemic, exceeding the number of designated beds but not exceeding ICU capacity.

Managing ICU surge during the COVID-19 crisis: rapid guidelines

Given the rapidly changing nature of COVID-19, clinicians and policy makers require urgent review and summary of the literature, and synthesis of evidence-based guidelines to inform practice. The WHO advocates for rapid reviews in these circumstances. The purpose of this rapid guideline is to provide recommendations on the organizational management of intensive care units caring for patients with COVID-19 including: planning a crisis surge response; crisis surge response strategies; triage, supporting families, and staff.

Augmenting the Disaster Healthcare Workforce

In disasters such as the COVID-19 pandemic, we need to use all available resources to bolster our healthcare workforce. Many factors go into this process, including selecting the groups of professionals we will need, streamlining their licensing and credentialing processes, identifying appropriate roles for them, and supporting their health and well-being. The questions we must answer are these: How many staff will we need? How do we provide them with emergency licenses and credentials to practice? What interstate licensing compacts and registration systems exist to facilitate the process? What caveats are there to using retired healthcare professionals and healthcare students? How can we best avoid attrition among and increase the numbers of international medical graduates? Which non-clinical volunteers can we use and in what capacities? The answers to these questions will change as the crisis develops, although the earlier we address them, the smoother will be the process of using augmentees for the healthcare system.

Utilizing a Pediatric Disaster Coalition Model to Increase Pediatric Critical Care Surge Capacity in New York City

A mass casualty event can result in an overwhelming number of critically injured pediatric victims that exceeds the available capacity of pediatric critical care (PCC) units, both locally and regionally. To address these gaps, the New York City (NYC) Pediatric Disaster Coalition (PDC) was established. The PDC includes experts in emergency preparedness, critical care, surgery, and emergency medicine from 18 of 25 major NYC PCC-capable hospitals. A PCC surge committee created recommendations for making additional PCC beds available with an emphasis on space, staff, stuff (equipment), and systems. The PDC assisted 15 hospitals in creating PCC surge plans by utilizing template plans and site visits. These plans created an additional 153 potential PCC surge beds. Seven hospitals tested their plans through drills. The purpose of this article was to demonstrate the need for planning for disasters involving children and to provide a stepwise, replicable model for establishing a PDC, with one of its primary goals focused on facilitating PCC surge planning. The process we describe for developing a PDC can be replicated to communities of any size, setting, or location. We offer our model as an example for other cities. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:473-478).

Developments in Surge Research Priorities: A Systematic Review of the Literature Following the Academic Emergency Medicine Consensus Conference, 2007-2015

OBJECTIVES

In 2006, Academic Emergency Medicine (AEM) published a special issue summarizing the proceedings of the AEM consensus conference on the "Science of Surge." One major goal of the conference was to establish research priorities in the field of "disasters" surge. For this review, we wished to determine the progress toward the conference's identified research priorities: 1) defining criteria and methods for allocation of scarce resources, 2) identifying effective triage protocols, 3) determining decision-makers and means to evaluate response efficacy, 4) developing communication and information sharing strategies, and 5) identifying methods for evaluating workforce needs.

METHODS

Specific criteria were developed in conjunction with library search experts. PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Scopus, and the Cochrane Library databases were queried for peer-reviewed articles from 2007 to 2015 addressing scientific advances related to the above five research priorities identified by AEM consensus conference. Abstracts and foreign language articles were excluded. Only articles with quantitative data on predefined outcomes were included; consensus panel recommendations on the above priorities were also included for the purposes of this review. Included study designs were randomized controlled trials, prospective, retrospective, qualitative (consensus panel), observational, cohort, case-control, or controlled before-and-after studies. Quality assessment was performed using a standardized tool for quantitative studies.

RESULTS

Of the 2,484 unique articles identified by the search strategy, 313 articles appeared to be related to disaster surge. Following detailed text review, 50 articles with quantitative data and 11 concept papers (consensus conference recommendations) addressed at least one AEM consensus conference surge research priority. Outcomes included validation of the benchmark of 500 beds/million of population for disaster surge capacity, effectiveness of simulation- and Internet-based tools for forecasting of hospital and regional demand during disasters, effectiveness of reverse triage approaches, development of new disaster surge metrics, validation of mass critical care approaches (altered standards of care), use of telemedicine, and predictions of optimal hospital staffing levels for disaster surge events. Simulation tools appeared to provide some of the highest quality research.

CONCLUSION

Disaster simulation studies have arguably revolutionized the study of disaster surge in the intervening years since the 2006 AEM Science of Surge conference, helping to validate some previously known disaster surge benchmarks and to generate new surge metrics. Use of reverse triage approaches and altered standards of care, as well as Internet-based tools such as Google Flu Trends, have also proven effective. However, there remains significant work to be done toward standardizing research methodologies and outcomes, as well as validating disaster surge metrics.

Surge capacity logistics: care of the critically ill and injured during pandemics and disasters: CHEST consensus statement

BACKGROUND

Successful management of a pandemic or disaster requires implementation of preexisting plans to minimize loss of life and maintain control. Managing the expected surges in intensive care capacity requires strategic planning from a systems perspective and includes focused intensive care abilities and requirements as well as all individuals and organizations involved in hospital and regional planning. The suggestions in this article are important for all involved in a large-scale disaster or pandemic, including front-line clinicians, hospital administrators, and public health or government officials. Specifically, this article focuses on surge logistics-those elements that provide the capability to deliver mass critical care.

METHODS

The Surge Capacity topic panel developed 23 key questions focused on the following domains: systems issues; equipment, supplies, and pharmaceuticals; staffing; and informatics. Literature searches were conducted to identify studies upon which evidence-based recommendations could be made. The results were reviewed for relevance to the topic, and the articles were screened by two topic editors for placement within one of the surge domains noted previously. Most reports were small scale, were observational, or used flawed modeling; hence, the level of evidence on which to base recommendations was poor and did not permit the development of evidence-based recommendations. The Surge Capacity topic panel subsequently followed the American College of Chest Physicians (CHEST) Guidelines Oversight Committee's methodology to develop suggestion based on expert opinion using a modified Delphi process.

RESULTS

This article presents 22 suggestions pertaining to surge capacity mass critical care, including requirements for equipment, supplies, and pharmaceuticals; staff preparation and organization; methods of mitigating overwhelming patient loads; the role of deployable critical care services; and the use of transportation assets to support the surge response.

CONCLUSIONS

Critical care response to a disaster relies on careful planning for staff and resource augmentation and involves many agencies. Maximizing the use of regional resources, including staff, equipment, and supplies, extends critical care capabilities. Regional coalitions should be established to facilitate agreements, outline operational plans, and coordinate hospital efforts to achieve predetermined goals. Specialized physician oversight is necessary and if not available on site, may be provided through remote consultation. Triage by experienced providers, reverse triage, and service deescalation may be used to minimize ICU resource consumption. During a temporary loss of infrastructure or overwhelmed hospital resources, deployable critical care services should be considered.

System-level planning, coordination, and communication: care of the critically ill and injured during pandemics and disasters: CHEST consensus statement

BACKGROUND

System-level planning involves uniting hospitals and health systems, local/regional government agencies, emergency medical services, and other health-care entities involved in coordinating and enabling care in a major disaster. We reviewed the literature and sought expert opinions concerning system-level planning and engagement for mass critical care due to disasters or pandemics and offer suggestions for system-planning, coordination, communication, and response. The suggestions in this chapter are important for all of those involved in a pandemic or disaster with multiple critically ill or injured patients, including front-line clinicians, hospital administrators, and public health or government officials.

METHODS

The American College of Chest Physicians (CHEST) consensus statement development process was followed in developing suggestions. Task Force members met in person to develop nine key questions believed to be most relevant for system-planning, coordination, and communication. A systematic literature review was then performed for relevant articles and documents, reports, and other publications reported since 1993. No studies of sufficient quality were identified upon which to make evidence-based recommendations. Therefore, the panel developed expert opinion-based suggestions using a modified Delphi process.

RESULTS

Suggestions were developed and grouped according to the following thematic elements: (1) national government support of health-care coalitions/regional health authorities (HC/RHAs), (2) teamwork within HC/RHAs, (3) system-level communication, (4) system-level surge capacity and capability, (5) pediatric patients and special populations, (6) HC/RHAs and networks, (7) models of advanced regional care systems, and (8) the use of simulation for preparedness and planning.

CONCLUSIONS

System-level planning is essential to provide care for large numbers of critically ill patients because of disaster or pandemic. It also entails a departure from the routine, independent system and involves all levels from health-care institutions to regional health authorities. National government support is critical, as are robust communication systems and advanced planning supported by realistic exercises.

Introduction and executive summary: care of the critically ill and injured during pandemics and disasters: CHEST consensus statement

Natural disasters, industrial accidents, terrorism attacks, and pandemics all have the capacity to result in large numbers of critically ill or injured patients. This supplement provides suggestions for all of those involved in a disaster or pandemic with multiple critically ill patients, including front-line clinicians, hospital administrators, professional societies, and public health or government officials. The current Task Force included a total of 100 participants from nine countries, comprised of clinicians and experts from a wide variety of disciplines. Comprehensive literature searches were conducted to identify studies upon which evidence-based recommendations could be made. No studies of sufficient quality were identified. Therefore, the panel developed expert-opinion-based suggestions that are presented in this supplement using a modified Delphi process. The ultimate aim of the supplement is to expand the focus beyond the walls of ICUs to provide recommendations for the management of all critically ill or injured adults and children resulting from a pandemic or disaster wherever that care may be provided. Considerations for the management of critically ill patients include clinical priorities and logistics (supplies, evacuation, and triage) as well as the key enablers (systems planning, business continuity, legal framework, and ethical considerations) that facilitate the provision of this care. The supplement also aims to illustrate how the concepts of mass critical care are integrated across the spectrum of surge events from conventional through contingency to crisis standards of care.

Disaster planning: the past, present, and future concepts and principles of managing a surge of burn injured patients for those involved in hospital facility planning and preparedness

The 9/11 attacks reframed the narrative regarding disaster medicine. Bypass strategies have been replaced with absorption strategies and are more specifically described as "surge capacity." In the succeeding years, a consensus has coalesced around stratifying the surge capacity into three distinct tiers: conventional, contingency, and crisis surge capacities. For the purpose of this work, these three distinct tiers were adapted specifically to burn surge for disaster planning activities at hospitals where burn centers are not located. A review was conducted involving published plans, other related academic works, and findings from actual disasters as well as modeling. The aim was to create burn-specific definitions for surge capacity for hospitals where a burn center is not located. The three-tier consensus description of surge capacity is delineated in their respective stratifications by what will hereinafter be referred to as the three "S's"; staff, space, and supplies (also referred to as supplies, pharmaceuticals, and equipment). This effort also included the creation of a checklist for nonburn center hospitals to assist in their development of a burn surge plan. Patients with serious burn injuries should always be moved to and managed at burn centers, but during a medical disaster with significant numbers of burn injured patients, there may be impediments to meeting this goal. It may be necessary for burn injured patients to remain for hours in an outlying hospital until being moved to a burn center. This work was aimed at aiding local and regional hospitals in developing an extemporizing measure until their burn injured patients can be moved to and managed at a burn center(s).

Prevalence of prehospital hypoxemia and oxygen use in trauma patients

OBJECTIVE

This study estimates the prevalence of injured patients requiring prehospital supplemental oxygen based on existing recommendations, and determines whether actual use exceeds those recommendations.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Prehospital oxygen use and continuous peripheral oxygen saturation measurements were prospectively collected on a purposive sample of injured civilians transported to an urban level 1 trauma center by paramedics. Structured chart review determined injury characteristics and outcomes. Supplemental oxygen administration indications were hypoxemia (peripheral oxygen saturation ≤ 90%), hemorrhagic shock (systolic blood pressure < 100 mmHg), or paramedic suspicion of traumatic brain injury.

RESULTS

Paramedics enrolled 224/290 screened subjects. Median (range) age was 34 (18-84) years, 48.7% were nonwhite, 75.4% were male, and Injury Severity Score was 5 (1-75). Half (54.5%) were admitted; 36.2% sustained a penetrating injury. None underwent prehospital endotracheal intubation. Hypoxemia occurred in 86 (38.4%), paramedics suspected traumatic brain injury in 22 (9.8%), and 20 (8.9%) were hypotensive. Any indication for supplemental oxygen (107/224 [47.8%, 95%CI 41.3%-54.3%]) and prehospital administration of oxygen (141/224 [62.9%, 95%CI 56.2%-69.2%]) was common. Many (35/141 [24.8%]) received oxygen without indication.

CONCLUSIONS

On the basis of current guidelines, less than half of adult trauma patients have an indication for prehospital supplemental oxygen, yet is frequently administered in the absence of clinical indication.

Surge Capacity and Capability. A Review of the History and Where the Science is Today Regarding Surge Capacity during a Mass Casualty Disaster

Disasters which include countless killed and many more injured, have occurred throughout recorded history. Many of the same reports of disaster also include numerous accounts of individuals attempting to rescue those in great peril and render aid to the injured and infirmed. The purpose of this paper is to briefly discuss the transition through several periods of time with managing a surge of many patients. This review will focus on the triggering event, injury and illness, location where the care is provided and specifically discuss where the science is today.

Surge in Hospitalizations Associated With Mechanical Ventilator Use During Influenza Outbreaks

Objective

Information on surges in critical care services including mechanical ventilator use during seasonal influenza outbreaks is limited. To potentially facilitate preparedness plans for future pandemics, we retrospectively quantitated surges in all-cause mechanical ventilator use during peak influenza for 12 consecutive years in all certified hospitals in Maryland.

Methods

Influenza testing data obtained for the Centers for Disease Control and Protection, Health and Human Services region 3, included defined peak influenza outbreak periods (PIOP), non-influenza time periods (non-ITP), and proportions of circulating influenza types for all study years. Procedure codes for mechanical ventilator use and diagnostic codes for medically attended acute respiratory illness (MAARI) were reviewed for every Maryland hospitalization. Daily counts of hospitalizations associated with ventilator use or MAARI during PIOP compared to non-ITP were analyzed using Poisson regression adjusted for month and year.

Results

Ventilator use increased during PIOP by 7% (95% CI, 5-10) over non-ITP (P < .0001) for all study years. These annual surges correlated with influenza season intensity, as measured by MAARI-related hospitalizations (correlation coefficient = 0.91, P < .0001).

Conclusions

Surges in ventilator use were temporally associated with PIOP and were positively correlated with influenza season intensity, as measured by hospitalizations associated with acute respiratory illness. This information may assist resource planning for future pandemics. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2014;x:1-7)

Wind disasters: A comprehensive review of current management strategies

Wind disasters are responsible for tremendous physical destruction, injury, loss of life and economic damage. In this review, we discuss disaster preparedness and effective medical response to wind disasters. The epidemiology of disease and injury patterns observed in the early and late phases of wind disasters are reviewed. The authors highlight the importance of advance planning and adequate preparation as well as prompt and well-organized response to potential damage involving healthcare infrastructure and the associated consequences to the medical response system. Ways to minimize both the extent of infrastructure damage and its effects on the healthcare system are discussed, focusing on lessons learned from recent major wind disasters around the globe. Finally, aspects of healthcare delivery in disaster zones are reviewed.

When the bells toll: engaging healthcare providers in catastrophic disaster response planning

Catastrophic disaster planning and response have been impeded by the inability to better coordinate the many components of the emergency response system. Healthcare providers in particular have remained on the periphery of such planning because of a variety of real or perceived barriers. Although hospitals and healthcare systems have worked successfully to develop surge capacity and capability, less successful have been the attempts to inculcate such planning in the private practice medical community. Implementation of a systems approach to catastrophic disaster planning that incorporates healthcare provider participation and engagement as one of the first steps toward such efforts will be of significant importance in ensuring that a comprehensive and successful emergency response will ensue.

Design of a model to predict surge capacity bottlenecks for burn mass casualties at a large academic medical center

OBJECTIVES

To design and test a model to predict surge capacity bottlenecks at a large academic medical center in response to a mass-casualty incident (MCI) involving multiple burn victims.

METHODS

Using the simulation software ProModel, a model of patient flow and anticipated resource use, according to principles of disaster management, was developed based upon historical data from the University Hospital of the University of Michigan Health System. Model inputs included: (a) age and weight distribution for casualties, and distribution of size and depth of burns; (b) rate of arrival of casualties to the hospital, and triage to ward or critical care settings; (c) eligibility for early discharge of non-MCI inpatients at time of MCI; (d) baseline occupancy of intensive care unit (ICU), surgical step-down, and ward; (e) staff availability-number of physicians, nurses, and respiratory therapists, and the expected ratio of each group to patients; (f) floor and operating room resources-anticipating the need for mechanical ventilators, burn care and surgical resources, blood products, and intravenous fluids; (g) average hospital length of stay and mortality rate for patients with inhalation injury and different size burns; and (h) average number of times that different size burns undergo surgery. Key model outputs include time to bottleneck for each limiting resource and average waiting time to hospital bed availability.

RESULTS

Given base-case model assumptions (including 100 mass casualties with an inter-arrival rate to the hospital of one patient every three minutes), hospital utilization is constrained within the first 120 minutes to 21 casualties, due to the limited number of beds. The first bottleneck is attributable to exhausting critical care beds, followed by floor beds. Given this limitation in number of patients, the temporal order of the ensuing bottlenecks is as follows: Lactated Ringer's solution (4 h), silver sulfadiazine/Silvadene (6 h), albumin (48 h), thrombin topical (72 h), type AB packed red blood cells (76 h), silver dressing/Acticoat (100 h), bismuth tribromophenate/Xeroform (102 h), and gauze bandage rolls/Kerlix (168 h). The following items do not precipitate a bottleneck: ventilators, topical epinephrine, staplers, foams, antimicrobial non-adherent dressing/Telfa types A, B, or O blood. Nurse, respiratory therapist, and physician staffing does not induce bottlenecks.

CONCLUSIONS

This model, and similar models for non-burn-related MCIs, can serve as a real-time estimation and management tool for hospital capacity in the setting of MCIs, and can inform supply decision support for disaster management.

Mechanical ventilators in US acute care hospitals

OBJECTIVE

The supply and distribution of mechanical ventilation capacity is of profound importance for planning for severe public health emergencies. However, the capability of US health systems to provide mechanical ventilation for children and adults remains poorly quantified. The objective of this study was to determine the quantity of adult and pediatric mechanical ventilators at US acute care hospitals.

METHODS

A total of 5,752 US acute care hospitals included in the 2007 American Hospital Association database were surveyed. We measured the quantities of mechanical ventilators and their features.

RESULTS

Responding to the survey were 4305 (74.8%) hospitals, which accounted for 83.8% of US intensive care unit beds. Of the 52,118 full-feature mechanical ventilators owned by respondent hospitals, 24,204 (46.4%) are pediatric/neonatal capable. Accounting for nonrespondents, we estimate that there are 62,188 full-feature mechanical ventilators owned by US acute care hospitals. The median number of full-feature mechanical ventilators per 100,000 population for individual states is 19.7 (interquartile ratio 17.2-23.1), ranging from 11.9 to 77.6. The median number of pediatric-capable device full-feature mechanical ventilators per 100,000 population younger than 14 years old is 52.3 (interquartile ratio 43.1-63.9) and the range across states is 22.1 to 206.2. In addition, respondent hospitals reported owning 82,755 ventilators other than full-feature mechanical ventilators; we estimate that there are 98,738 devices other than full-feature ventilators at all of the US acute care hospitals.

CONCLUSIONS

The number of mechanical ventilators per US population exceeds those reported by other developed countries, but there is wide variation across states in the population-adjusted supply. There are considerably more pediatric-capable ventilators than there are for adults only on a population-adjusted basis.

Performance of portable ventilators for mass-casualty care

INTRODUCTION

Disasters and mass-casualty scenarios may overwhelm medical resources regardless of the level of preparation. Disaster response requires medical equipment, such as ventilators, that can be operated under adverse circumstances and should be able to provide respiratory support for a variety of patient populations.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of three portable ventilators designed to provide ventilatory support outside the hospital setting and in mass-casualty incidents, and their adherence to the Task Force for Mass Critical Care recommendations for mass-casualty care ventilators.

METHODS

Each device was evaluated at minimum and maximum respiratory rate and tidal volume settings to determine the accuracy of set versus delivered VT at lung compliance settings of 0.02, 0.08 and 0.1 L/cm H20 with corresponding resistance settings of 10, 25, and 5 cm H2O/L/sec, to simulate patients with ARDS, severe asthma, and normal lungs. Additionally, different FIO2 settings with each device (if applicable) were evaluated to determine accuracy of FIO2 delivery and evaluate the effect on delivered VT. Ventilators also were tested for duration of battery life.

RESULTS

VT decreased with all three devices as compliance decreased. The decrease was more pronounced when the internal compressor was activated. At the 0.65 FIO2 setting on the MCV 200, the measured FIO2 varied widely depending on the set VT. Battery life range was 311-582 minutes with the 73X having the longest battery life. Delivered VT decreased toward the end of battery life with the SAVe having the largest decrease. The respiratory rate on the SAVe also decreased approaching the end of battery life.

CONCLUSION

The 73X and MCV 200 were the closest to satisfying the Task Force for Mass Critical Care requirements for mass casualty ventilators, although neither had the capability to provide PEEP. The 73X provided the most consistent tidal volume delivery across all compliances, had the longest battery duration and the least decline in VT at the end of battery life.

Preparing your intensive care unit to respond in crisis: considerations for critical care clinicians

OBJECTIVE

In recent years, healthcare disaster planning has grown from its early place as an occasional consideration within the manuals of emergency medical services and emergency department managers to a rapidly growing field, which considers continuity of function, surge capability, and process changes across the spectrum of healthcare delivery. A detailed examination of critical care disaster planning was undertaken in 2007 by the Task Force for Mass Critical Care of the American College of Chest Physicians Critical Care Collaborative Initiative. We summarize the Task Force recommendations and available updated information to answer a fundamental question for critical care disaster planners: What is a prepared intensive care unit and how do I ensure my unit's readiness?

DATA SOURCES

Database searches and review of relevant published literature.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Preparedness is essential for successful response, but because intensive care units face many competing priorities, without defining "preparedness for what," the task can seem overwhelming. Intensive care unit disaster planners should, therefore, along with the entire hospital, participate in a hospital or regionwide planning process to 1) identify critical care response vulnerabilities; and 2) clarify the hazards for which their community is most at risk. The process should inform a comprehensive written preparedness plan targeting the most worrisome scenarios and including specific guidance on 1) optimal use of space, equipment, and staffing for delivery of critical care to significantly increased patient volumes; 2) allocation of resources for provision of essential critical care services under conditions of absolute scarcity; 3) intensive care unit evacuation; and 4) redundant internal communication systems and means for timely data collection.

CONCLUSION

Critical care disaster planners have a complex, challenging task. Experienced planners will agree that no disaster response is perfect, but careful planning will enable the prepared intensive care unit to respond effectively in times of crisis.

Supplies and equipment for pediatric emergency mass critical care

INTRODUCTION

Epidemics of acute respiratory disease, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome in 2003, and natural disasters, such as Hurricane Katrina in 2005, have prompted planning in hospitals that offer adult critical care to increase their capacity and equipment inventory for responding to a major demand surge. However, planning at a national, state, or local level to address the particular medical resource needs of children for mass critical care has yet to occur in any coordinated way. This paper presents the consensus opinion of the Task Force regarding supplies and equipment that would be required during a pediatric mass critical care crisis.

METHODS

In May 2008, the Task Force for Mass Critical Care published guidance on provision of mass critical care to adults. Acknowledging that the critical care needs of children during disasters were unaddressed by this effort, a 17-member Steering Committee, assembled by the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education with guidance from members of the American Academy of Pediatrics, convened in April 2009 to determine priority topic areas for pediatric emergency mass critical care recommendations.Steering Committee members established subcommittees by topic area and performed literature reviews of MEDLINE and Ovid databases. The Steering Committee produced draft outlines through consensus-based study of the literature and convened October 6-7, 2009, in New York, NY, to review and revise each outline. Eight draft documents were subsequently developed from the revised outlines as well as through searches of MEDLINE updated through March 2010.The Pediatric Emergency Mass Critical Care Task Force, composed of 36 experts from diverse public health, medical, and disaster response fields, convened in Atlanta, GA, on March 29-30, 2010. Feedback on each manuscript was compiled and the Steering Committee revised each document to reflect expert input in addition to the most current medical literature.

TASK FORCE RECOMMENDATIONS

The Task Force endorsed the view that supplies and equipment must be available for a tripling of capacity above the usual peak pediatric intensive care unit capacity for at least 10 days. The recommended size-specific pediatric mass critical care equipment stockpile for two types of patients is presented in terms of equipment needs per ten mass critical care beds, which would serve 26 patients over a 10-day period. Specific recommendations are made regarding ventilator capacity, including the potential use of high-frequency oscillatory ventilation and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. Other recommendations include inventories for disposable medical equipment, medications, and staffing levels.

Treatment and triage recommendations for pediatric emergency mass critical care

INTRODUCTION

This paper will outline the Task Force recommendations regarding treatment during pediatric emergency mass critical care, issues related to the allocation of scarce resources, and current challenges in the development of pediatric triage guidelines.

METHODS

In May 2008, the Task Force for Mass Critical Care published guidance on provision of mass critical care to adults. Acknowledging that the critical care needs of children during disasters were unaddressed by this effort, a 17-member Steering Committee, assembled by the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education with guidance from members of the American Academy of Pediatrics, convened in April 2009 to determine priority topic areas for pediatric emergency mass critical care recommendations.Steering Committee members established subcommittees by topic area and performed literature reviews of MEDLINE and Ovid databases. The Steering Committee produced draft outlines through consensus-based study of the literature and convened October 6-7, 2009, in New York, NY, to review and revise each outline. Eight draft documents were subsequently developed from the revised outlines as well as through searches of MEDLINE updated through March 2010.The Pediatric Emergency Mass Critical Care Task Force, composed of 36 experts from diverse public health, medical, and disaster response fields, convened in Atlanta, GA, on March 29-30, 2010. Feedback on each manuscript was compiled and the Steering Committee revised each document to reflect expert input in addition to the most current medical literature.

TASK FORCE RECOMMENDATIONS

Recommendations are divided into three operational sections. The first section provides pediatric emergency mass critical care recommendations for hospitals that normally provide care to pediatric patients. The second section provides recommendations for pediatric emergency mass critical care at hospitals that do not routinely provide care to pediatric patients. The final section provides a discussion of issues related to developing triage algorithms and protocols and the allocation of scarce resources during pediatric emergency mass critical care.

A porcine model for initial surge mechanical ventilator assessment and evaluation of two limited-function ventilators

OBJECTIVES

To adapt an animal model of acute lung injury for use as a standard protocol for a screening initial evaluation of limited function, or "surge," ventilators for use in mass casualty scenarios.

DESIGN

Prospective, experimental animal study.

SETTING

University research laboratory.

SUBJECTS

Twelve adult pigs.

INTERVENTIONS

Twelve spontaneously breathing pigs (six in each group) were subjected to acute lung injury/acute respiratory distress syndrome via pulmonary artery infusion of oleic acid. After development of respiratory failure, animals were mechanically ventilated with a limited-function ventilator (simplified automatic ventilator [SAVe] I or II; Automedx, Germantown, MD) for 1 hr or until the ventilator could not support the animal. The limited-function ventilator was then exchanged for a full-function ventilator (Servo 900C; Siemens-Elema, Solna, Sweden).

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Reliable and reproducible levels of acute lung injury/acute respiratory distress syndrome were induced. The SAVe I was unable to adequately oxygenate five animals with Pao2 (52.0±11.1 torr) compared to the Servo (106.0±25.6 torr; p=.002). The SAVe II was able to oxygenate and ventilate all six animals for 1 hr with no difference in Pao2 (141.8±169.3 torr) compared to the Servo (158.3±167.7 torr).

CONCLUSIONS

We describe a novel in vivo model of acute lung injury/acute respiratory distress syndrome that can be used to initially screen limited-function ventilators considered for mass respiratory failure stockpiles and that is intended to be combined with additional studies to definitively assess appropriateness for mass respiratory failure. Specifically, during this study we demonstrate that the SAVe I ventilator is unable to provide sufficient gas exchange, whereas the SAVe II, with several more functions, was able to support the same level of hypoxemic respiratory failure secondary to acute lung injury/acute respiratory distress syndrome for 1 hr.

Health care system planning for and response to a nuclear detonation

The hallmark of a successful response to a nuclear detonation will be the resilience of the community, region, and nation. An incident of this magnitude will rapidly become a national incident; however, the initial critical steps to reduce lives lost, save the lives that can be saved with the resources available, and understand and apply resources available to a complex and dynamic situation will be the responsibility of the local and regional responders and planners. Expectations of the public health and health care systems will be met to the extent possible by coordination, cooperation, and an effort to produce as consistent a response as possible for the victims. Responders will face extraordinarily stressful situations, and their own physical and psychological health is of great importance to optimizing the response. This article illustrates through vignettes and supporting text how the incident may unfold for the various components of the health and medical systems and provides additional context for the discipline-related actions outlined in the state and local planners' playbook.

Critical care management of major disasters: a practical guide to disaster preparation in the intensive care unit

Recent events and regulatory mandates have underlined the importance of medical planning and preparedness for catastrophic events. The purpose of this review is to provide a brief summary of current commonly identified threats, an overview of mass critical care management, and a discussion of resource allocation to provide the intensive care unit (ICU) director with a practical guide to help prepare and coordinate the activities of the multidisciplinary critical care team in the event of a disaster.

Pandemic influenza: implications for preparation and delivery of critical care services

In a 5-week span during the 1918 influenza A pandemic, more than 2000 patients were admitted to Cook County Hospital in Chicago, with a diagnosis of either influenza or pneumonia; 642 patients, approximately 31% of those admitted, died, with deaths occurring predominantly in patients of age 25 to 30 years. This review summarizes basic information on the biology, epidemiology, control, treatment and prevention of influenza overall, and then addresses the potential impact of pandemic influenza in an intensive care unit setting. Issues that require consideration include workforce staffing and safety, resource management, alternate sites of care surge of patients, altered standards of care, and crisis communication.

Geographical maldistribution of pediatric medical resources in Seattle-King County

OBJECTIVE

Seattle-King County (SKC) Washington is at risk for regional disasters, especially earthquakes. Of 1.8 million residents, >400,000 (22%) are children, a proportion similar to that of the population of the State of Washington (24%) and of the United States (24%). The county's large area of 2,134 square miles (5,527 km2) is connected through major transportation routes that cross numerous waterways; sub-county zones may become isolated in the wake of a major earthquake. Therefore, each of SKC's three subcounty emergency response zones must have ample pediatric medical response capabilities. To date, total quantities and distribution of crucial hospital resources (available in SKC) to manage pediatric victims of a medical disaster are unknown. This study assessed whether geographical distribution of hospital pediatric resources corresponds to the pediatric population distribution in SKC.

METHODS

Surveys were delivered electronically to all eight acute care hospitals in SKC that admit pediatric patients. Quantities and categories of pediatric resources, including inpatient treatment space, staff, and equipment, were queried and verified via site visits.

RESULTS

Within the seven responding hospitals of eight queried, the following were identified: 477 formal pediatric bed spaces (pediatric intensive care unit, neo-natal intensive care unit, general wards, and emergency department), 43 informal pediatric bed spaces (operating room and post-anesthesia care unit), 1,217 pediatric nurses, 554 pediatric physicians, and 252 infant/pediatric-adaptable ventilators. The City of Seattle emergency response zone contains 82.1% of bed spaces, 83.5% of nurses, and 95.8% of physicians, yet only 22.8% of all SKC children live in that zone.

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of hospital pediatric resources are located in the SKC sub-region with the fewest children. These resources are potentially inaccessible and unable to be redistributed by ground transportation in the event of a significant regional disaster. Future planning for pediatric care in the event of a medical disaster in SKC must address this vulnerability.

The benefits of designing a stratification system for New York City pediatric intensive care units for use in regional surge capacity planning and management

Accurate assessment of New York City (NYC) pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) resources and the ability to surge them during a disaster has been recognized as an important citywide emergency preparedness activity. However, while NYC hospitals with PICUs may be expected to surge in a disaster, few of them have detailed surge capacity plans. This will likely make it difficult for them to realize their full surge capacity both on individual and regional levels. If the pediatric resources that each NYC PICU hospital has can be identified prior to a disaster, this information can be used to both determine appropriate surge capacity goals for each PICU hospital and the additional resources needed to reach those goals. City agencies can then focus citywide planning efforts on making these resources available and more easily anticipate what a hospital will need during a disaster. Communication of this hospital information both prior to and during a surge situation will be aided by a stratification system familiar to both city planners and hospitals. The goal of this project was to design a NYC PICU surge stratification system that would aid physicians, hospitals and city agencies in regional surge capacity planning for critical pediatric patients. This goal was demonstrated through two objectives. The first identified major factors to consider when designing a stratification system. The second devised a preliminary system of PICU stratification based on clinical criteria and resources.

Chapter 5. Essential equipment, pharmaceuticals and supplies. Recommendations and standard operating procedures for intensive care unit and hospital preparations for an influenza epidemic or mass disaster

PURPOSE

To provide recommendations and standard operating procedures for intensive care unit and hospital preparations for an influenza pandemic or mass disaster with a specific focus on essential equipment, pharmaceuticals and supplies.

METHODS

Based on a literature review and expert opinion, a Delphi process was used to define the essential topics including essential equipment, pharmaceuticals and supplies.

RESULTS

Key recommendations include: (1) ensure that adequate essential medical equipment, pharmaceuticals and important supplies are available during a disaster; (2) develop a communication and coordination system between health care facilities and local/regional/state/country governmental authorities for the provision of additional support; (3) determine the required resources, order and stockpile adequate resources, and judiciously distribute them; (4) acquire additional mechanical ventilators that are portable, provide adequate gas exchange for a range of clinical conditions, function with low-flow oxygen and without high pressure, and are safe for patients and staff; (5) provide advanced ventilatory support and rescue therapies including high levels of inspired oxygen and positive end-expiratory pressure, volume and pressure control ventilation, inhaled nitric oxide, high-frequency ventilation, prone positioning ventilation and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation; (6) triage scarce resources including equipment, pharmaceuticals and supplies based on those who are likely to benefit most or on a 'first come, first served' basis.

CONCLUSIONS

Judicious planning and adoption of protocols for providing adequate equipment, pharmaceuticals and supplies are necessary to optimize outcomes during a pandemic.

Chapter 2. Surge capacity and infrastructure considerations for mass critical care. Recommendations and standard operating procedures for intensive care unit and hospital preparations for an influenza epidemic or mass disaster

Purpose

To provide recommendations and standard operating procedures for intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital preparations for a mass disaster or influenza epidemic with a specific focus on surge capacity and infrastructure considerations.

Methods

Based on a literature review and expert opinion, a Delphi process was used to define the essential topics including surge capacity and infrastructure considerations.

Results

Key recommendations include: (1) hospitals should increase their ICU beds to the maximal extent by expanding ICU capacity and expanding ICUs into other areas; (2) hospitals should have appropriate beds and monitors for these expansion areas; hospitals should develop contingency plans at the facility and government (local, state, provincial, national) levels to provide additional ventilators; (3) hospitals should develop a phased staffing plan (nursing and physician) for ICUs that provides sufficient patient care supervision during contingency and crisis situations; (4) hospitals should provide expert input to the emergency management personnel at the hospital both during planning for surge capacity as well as during response; (5) hospitals should assure that adequate infrastructure support is present to support critical care activities; (6) hospitals should prioritize locations for expansion by expanding existing ICUs, using postanesthesia care units and emergency departments to capacity, then step-down units, large procedure suites, telemetry units and finally hospital wards.

Conclusions

Judicious planning and adoption of protocols for surge capacity and infrastructure considerations are necessary to optimize outcomes during a pandemic.

Chapter 4. Manpower. Recommendations and standard operating procedures for intensive care unit and hospital preparations for an influenza epidemic or mass disaster

PURPOSE

To provide recommendations and standard operating procedures (SOPs) for intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital preparations for an influenza pandemic or mass disaster with a specific focus on manpower.

METHODS

Based on a literature review and expert opinion, a Delphi process was used to define the essential topics including manpower.

RESULTS

Key recommendations include: (1) plan to access, coordinate and increase labor resources for continued and expanded ICU care including increasing critical care specialists and expanded practice for non-critical care personnel; (2) develop an education, awareness, preparation and communication program to ensure a well-protected and prepared workforce with coordinated rapid manpower expansion; (3) maintain a central inventory of all clinical and non-clinical staff with their current roles along with possible emergency re-training possibilities; (4) coordinate all clinical and non-clinical staffing requirements and determine the hospital's daily needs including a sick and no-show list together with ICU requirements; (5) provide clinical care to patients only with clinical staff and not with non-clinical staff; (6) delegate duties not within the scope of workers' practice under crisis conditions with proper supervision and support from experienced clinicians to ensure patient safety; (7) intensivists should supervise nonintensivist physicians to expand the workforce if patient surge exceeds the number of available ICU-trained specialists.

CONCLUSIONS

Judicious planning and adoption of protocols for providing adequate manpower are necessary to optimize outcomes during a pandemic.

Hospital triage system for adult patients using an influenza-like illness scoring system during the 2009 pandemic--Mexico

BACKGROUND

Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus emerged during 2009. To help clinicians triage adults with acute respiratory illness, a scoring system for influenza-like illness (ILI) was implemented at Hospital Civil de Guadalajara, Mexico.

METHODS

A medical history, laboratory and radiology results were collected on emergency room (ER) patients with acute respiratory illness to calculate an ILI-score. Patients were evaluated for admission by their ILI-score and clinicians' assessment of risk for developing complications. Nasal and throat swabs were collected from intermediate and high-risk patients for influenza testing by RT-PCR. The disposition and ILI-score of those oseltamivir-treated versus untreated, clinical characteristics of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) patients versus test-negative patients were compared by Pearson's Chi(2), Fisher's Exact, and Wilcoxon rank-sum tests.

RESULTS

Of 1840 ER patients, 230 were initially hospitalized (mean ILI-score = 15), and the rest were discharged, including 286 ambulatory patients given oseltamivir (median ILI-score = 11), and 1324 untreated (median ILI-score = 5). Fourteen (1%) untreated patients returned, and 3 were hospitalized on oseltamivir (median ILI-score = 19). Of 371 patients tested by RT-PCR, 104 (28%) had pandemic influenza and 42 (11%) had seasonal influenza A detected. Twenty (91%) of 22 imaged hospitalized pandemic influenza patients had bilateral infiltrates compared to 23 (38%) of 61 imaged hospital test-negative patients (p<0.001). One patient with confirmed pandemic influenza presented 6 days after symptom onset, required mechanical ventilation, and died.

CONCLUSIONS

The triaging system that used an ILI-score complimented clinicians' judgment of who needed oseltamivir and inpatient care and helped hospital staff manage a surge in demand for services.

Preparing your intensive care unit for the second wave of H1N1 and future surges

Faced with increased demands for critical care services as a result of the novel H1N1 pandemic, hospitals must prepare a surge response in an attempt to manage these needs. In preparing for a surge response, factors to consider are staff, stuff (supplies and equipment), space, and systems necessary to respond to the event. This article uses this general framework to discuss surge issues in the context of H1N1 challenges that we are facing currently and to provide specific advice for hospitals. Particular attention is given to how hospitals can estimate the potential impact of H1N1 and pharmaceutical stockpiling.

Recommendations for intensive care unit and hospital preparations for an influenza epidemic or mass disaster: summary report of the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine's Task Force for intensive care unit triage during an influenza epidemic or mass disaster

PURPOSE

To provide recommendations and standard operating procedures for intensive care units and hospital preparedness for an influenza pandemic.

METHODS

Based on a literature review and expert opinion, a Delphi process was used to define the essential topics.

RESULTS

Key recommendations include: Hospitals should increase their ICU beds to the maximal extent by expanding ICU capacity and expanding ICUs into other areas. Hospitals should have appropriate beds and monitors for these expansion areas. Establish a management system with control groups at facility, local, regional and/or national levels to exercise authority over resources. Establish a system of communication, coordination and collaboration between the ICU and key interface departments. A plan to access, coordinate and increase labor resources is required with a central inventory of all clinical and non-clinical staff. Delegate duties not within the usual scope of workers' practice. Ensure that adequate essential medical equipment, pharmaceuticals and supplies are available. Protect patients and staff with infection control practices and supporting occupational health policies. Maintain staff confidence with reassurance plans for legal protection and assistance. Have objective, ethical, transparent triage criteria that are applied equitably and publically disclosed. ICU triage of patients should be based on the likelihood for patients to benefit most or a 'first come, first served' basis. Develop protocols for safe performance of high-risk procedures. Train and educate staff.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality, although inevitable during a severe influenza outbreak or disaster, can be reduced by adequate preparation.

Prospective meta-analysis using individual patient data in intensive care medicine

Meta-analysis is a technique for combining evidence from multiple trials. However, meta-analyses of studies with substantial heterogeneity among patients within trials-common in intensive care-can lead to incorrect conclusions if performed using aggregate data. Use of individual patient data (IPD) can avoid this concern, increase the power of a meta-analysis, and is useful for exploring subgroup effects. Barriers exist to IPD meta-analysis, most of which are overcome if clinical trials are designed to prospectively facilitate the incorporation of their results with other trials. We review the features of prospective IPD meta-analysis and identify those of relevance to intensive care research. We identify three clinical questions, which are the subject of recent or planned randomised controlled trials where IPD MA offers advantages over approaches using aggregate data.

A retrospective cohort pilot study to evaluate a triage tool for use in a pandemic

Introduction

The objective of this pilot study was to assess the usability of the draft Ontario triage protocol, to estimate its potential impact on patient outcomes, and ability to increase resource availability based on a retrospective cohort of critically ill patients cared for during a non-pandemic period.

Methods

Triage officers applied the protocol prospectively to 2 retrospective cohorts of patients admitted to 2 academic medical/surgical ICUs during an 8 week period of peak occupancy. Each patient was assigned a treatment priority (red -- 'highest', yellow -- 'intermediate', green -- 'discharge to ward', or blue/black -- 'expectant') by the triage officers at 3 separate time points (at the time of admission to the ICU, 48, and 120 hours post admission).

Results

Overall, triage officers were either confident or very confident in 68.4% of their scores; arbitration was required in 54.9% of cases. Application of the triage protocol would potentially decrease the number of required ventilator days by 49.3% (568 days) and decrease the total ICU days by 52.6% (895 days). On the triage protocol at ICU admission the survival rate in the red (93.7%) and yellow (62.5%) categories were significantly higher then that of the blue category (24.6%) with associated P values of < 0.0001 and 0.0003 respectively. Further, the survival rate of the red group was significantly higher than the overall survival rate of 70.9% observed in the cohort (P < 0.0001). At 48 and 120 hours, survival rates in the blue group increased but remained lower then the red or yellow groups.

Conclusions

Refinement of the triage protocol and implementation is required prior to future study, including improved training of triage officers, and protocol modification to minimize the exclusion from critical care of patients who may in fact benefit. However, our results suggest that the triage protocol can help to direct resources to patients who are most likely to benefit, and help to decrease the demands on critical care resources, thereby making available more resources to treat other critically ill patients.

A novel approach to multihazard modeling and simulation

OBJECTIVE

To develop and apply a novel modeling approach to support medical and public health disaster planning and response using a sarin release scenario in a metropolitan environment.

METHODS

An agent-based disaster simulation model was developed incorporating the principles of dose response, surge response, and psychosocial characteristics superimposed on topographically accurate geographic information system architecture. The modeling scenarios involved passive and active releases of sarin in multiple transportation hubs in a metropolitan city. Parameters evaluated included emergency medical services, hospital surge capacity (including implementation of disaster plan), and behavioral and psychosocial characteristics of the victims.

RESULTS

In passive sarin release scenarios of 5 to 15 L, mortality increased nonlinearly from 0.13% to 8.69%, reaching 55.4% with active dispersion, reflecting higher initial doses. Cumulative mortality rates from releases in 1 to 3 major transportation hubs similarly increased nonlinearly as a function of dose and systemic stress. The increase in mortality rate was most pronounced in the 80% to 100% emergency department occupancy range, analogous to the previously observed queuing phenomenon. Effective implementation of hospital disaster plans decreased mortality and injury severity. Decreasing ambulance response time and increasing available responding units reduced mortality among potentially salvageable patients. Adverse psychosocial characteristics (excess worry and low compliance) increased demands on health care resources. Transfer to alternative urban sites was possible.

CONCLUSIONS

An agent-based modeling approach provides a mechanism to assess complex individual and systemwide effects in rare events.

The Needs of Children in Natural or Manmade Disasters

Disasters have been described as “events of sufficient scale, asset depletion, or numbers of victims to overwhelm medical resources” [1] or as “a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society causing widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses that exceed the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources” [2]. Importantly, that definition goes on to state: “A disaster is a function of the risk process. It results from the combination of hazards, conditions of vulnerability and insufficient capacity or measures to reduce the potential negative consequences of risk.”