Pretreatment CA 19-9 level as a prognostic factor in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer treated with gemcitabine

Diagnosing and monitoring pancreatic cancer through cell-free DNA methylation: progress and prospects

Pancreatic cancer is one of the most challenging cancers due to its high mortality rates. Considering the late diagnosis and the limited survival benefit with current treatment options, it becomes imperative to optimize early detection, prognosis and prediction of treatment response. To address these challenges, significant research efforts have been undertaken in recent years to develop liquid-biopsy-based biomarkers for pancreatic cancer. In particular, an increasing number of studies point to cell-free DNA (cfDNA) methylation analysis as a promising non-invasive approach for the discovery and validation of epigenetic biomarkers with diagnostic or prognostic potential. In this review we provide an update on recent advancements in the field of cfDNA methylation analysis in pancreatic cancer. We discuss the relevance of DNA methylation in the context of pancreatic cancer, recent cfDNA methylation research, its clinical utility, and future directions for integrating cfDNA methylation analysis into routine clinical practice.

Circulating NPTX2 methylation as a non-invasive biomarker for prognosis and monitoring of metastatic pancreatic cancer

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic cancer is the most lethal cancer with a dismal prognosis mainly due to diagnosis at advanced stage and ineffective treatments. CA19-9 levels and computed tomography (CT) imaging are the main standard criteria for evaluating disease progression and treatment response. In this study we explored liquid biopsy-based epigenetic biomarkers for prognosis and monitoring disease in patients with metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (mPDAC).

METHODS

Plasma samples were collected from 44 mPDAC patients at the time of diagnosis, and in 15 of them, additional samples were obtained during follow-up of the disease. After cell-free DNA (cfDNA), isolation circulating levels of methylated NPTX2, SPARC, BMP3, SFRP1 and TFPI2 genes were measured using digital droplet PCR (ddPCR). BEAMing technique was performed for quantitation of RAS mutations in cfDNA, and CA19-9 was measured using standard techniques.

RESULTS

NPTX2 was the most highly and frequently methylated gene in cfDNA samples from mPDAC patients. Higher circulating NPTX2 methylation levels at diagnosis were associated with poor prognosis and efficiently stratified patients for prediction of overall survival (6.06% cut-off, p = 0.0067). Dynamics of circulating NPTX2 methylation levels correlated with disease progression and response to therapy and predicted better than CA19-9 the evolution of disease in mPDAC patients. Remarkably, in many cases the disease progression detected by CT scan was anticipated by an increase in circulating NPTX2 methylation levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study supports circulating NPTX2 methylation levels as a promising liquid biopsy-based clinical tool for non-invasive prognosis, monitoring disease evolution and response to treatment in mPDAC patients.

Heterodimeric RGD-NGR PET Tracer for the Early Detection of Pancreatic Cancer

PURPOSE

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is the most lethal gastrointestinal cancer, and its poor prognosis is highly associated with the lack of an efficient early detection technology. Here, we report that RGD-NGR heterodimer labeled with PET isotope could be applied in PDAC early detection.

PROCEDURES

The RGD-NGR tracer was first compared with its corresponding monomeric counterparts via PET imaging studies using mice bearing a subcutaneous BxPC3 tumor. Subsequently, the RGD-NGR tracer was evaluated in autochthonous mouse models with spontaneously developed late stage PanIN lesions (KCER mice) or PDAC (KPC mice) via both PET imaging studies and ex vivo biodistribution studies. Furthermore, a comparison between 2-deoxy-2[18F]fluoro-D-glucose ([18F]F-FDG) and the RGD-NGR tracer was conducted via PET imaging of the same KCH mouse bearing spontaneously developed PDAC. H&E staining was performed to confirm the malignant pancreatic tissue in the KCH mouse. Immunofluorescence staining was performed to confirm the expression of integrin αVβ3 and CD13.

RESULTS

The RGD-NGR tracer exhibited improved in vivo performance as compared with its corresponding monomeric counterparts on the subcutaneous BxPC3 tumor mouse model. Subsequent evaluation in autochthonous mouse models demonstrated its capability to detect both pre-malignant and malignant pancreases. Further comparison with [18F]F-FDG revealed the superiority of the proposed heterodimer in imaging spontaneously developed PDAC. H&E staining confirmed the malignant pancreatic tissue in the KCH mouse, while the expression of both integrin αVβ3 and CD13 receptors was demonstrated with immunofluorescence staining.

CONCLUSION

The proposed RGD-NGR heterodimer possesses the potential to be applied in the PDAC early detection for high-risk populations.

Moving Towards Dawn: KRas Signaling and Treatment in Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

"Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC)" is robust, nearly clueless, and all-around deadly among all tumors. Below 10 %, the general 5-year endurance period has remained adamantly unaltered in the last 30 years, regardless of enormous clinical and therapeutic endeavors. The yearly number of deaths is more than the number of recently analyzed cases. Not a classic one, but "Carbohydrate Antigen CA19- 9" remains the prevailing tool for diagnosis. MicroRNAs and non-invasive techniques are now incorporated for the effective prognosis of PDAC than just CA19-9. Mutated "Rat sarcoma virus Ras" conformation "V-Ki-ras2 Kirsten rat sarcoma viral oncogene homolog KRas" is 95 % accountable for PDAC, and its active (GTP-bound) formation activates signaling cascade comprising "Rapidly accelerated fibrosarcoma Raf"/"Mitogen-activated protein kinase MEK"/ "Extracellular signal-regulated kinase ERK" with "Phosphoinositide 3-kinase PI3K"/ "protein kinase B Akt"/ "mammalian target of rapamycin mTOR" pathways. KRas has acquired the label of 'undruggable' since the crosstalk in the nexus of pathways compensates for Raf and PI3K signaling cascade blocking. It is arduous to totally regulate KRascoordinated PDAC with traditional medicaments like "gemcitabine GEM" plus nabpaclitaxel/ FOLFIRINOX. For long-haul accomplishments aiming at KRas, future endeavors should be directed to combinatorial methodologies to adequately block KRas pathways at different standpoints. Currently they are contributing to healing PDAC. In this review article, we outline the function of KRas in carcinogenesis in PDAC, its signaling cascade, former techniques utilized in hindering Kras, current and future possibilities for targeting Kras.

Quantitative Imaging Biomarkers of the Whole Liver Tumor Burden Improve Survival Prediction in Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer

Simple Summary

Finding prognostic biomarkers and associated models with high accuracy in patients with pancreatic cancer remains a challenge. The aim of this study was to analyze whether the combination of quantitative imaging biomarkers based on geometric and radiomics analysis of whole liver tumor burden and established clinical parameters improves the prediction of survival in patients with metastatic pancreatic cancer. In this retrospective study a total of 75 patients with pancreatic cancer and liver metastases were analyzed. Segmentations of whole liver tumor burden from baseline contrast-enhanced CT images were used to derive different quantitative imaging biomarkers. For comparison, we chose two clinical prognostic models from the literature. We found that a combined clinical and imaging-based model has a significantly higher predictive performance to discriminate survival than the underlying clinical models alone (p < 0.003).

Abstract

Finding prognostic biomarkers with high accuracy in patients with pancreatic cancer (PC) remains a challenging problem. To improve the prediction of survival and to investigate the relevance of quantitative imaging biomarkers (QIB) we combined QIB with established clinical parameters. In this retrospective study a total of 75 patients with metastatic PC and liver metastases were analyzed. Segmentations of whole liver tumor burden (WLTB) from baseline contrast-enhanced CT images were used to derive QIBs. The benefits of QIBs in multivariable Cox models were analyzed in comparison with two clinical prognostic models from the literature. To discriminate survival, the two clinical models had concordance indices of 0.61 and 0.62 in a statistical setting. Combined clinical and imaging-based models achieved concordance indices of 0.74 and 0.70 with WLTB volume, tumor burden score (TBS), and bilobar disease being the three WLTB parameters that were kept by backward elimination. These combined clinical and imaging-based models have significantly higher predictive performance in discriminating survival than the underlying clinical models alone (p < 0.003). Radiomics and geometric WLTB analysis of patients with metastatic PC with liver metastases enhances the modeling of survival compared with models based on clinical parameters alone.

The Association of Real-World CA 19-9 Level Monitoring Patterns and Clinical Outcomes Among Patients With Metastatic Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

Background

Pancreatic cancer is expected to be the third deadliest cancer in the US in 2021. Evaluation of treatment response in patients with mPDAC necessitates scheduled clinical and radiographic assessments along with monitoring serum CA 19-9 levels. Currently available single-institution data examining the importance of CA 19-9 monitoring cannot be generalized to real-world settings. We investigated the impact of serum CA 19-9 monitoring and its association with clinical outcomes in patients with mPDAC in a population-based setting.

Methods

Data were extracted from the Flatiron Health electronic health record (EHR)-derived de-identified database for patients diagnosed with mPDAC between January 1, 2015, and June 30, 2020. Serum CA 19-9 levels at baseline – defined as the values obtained ≤ 60 days prior to treatment initiation - and during treatment were extracted. CA 19-9 levels > 40 IU/mL were considered elevated. Survival outcomes were compared based on testing frequency, baseline CA 19-9 levels, and change in CA 19-9.

Results

6,118 patients with mPDAC who received treatment were included in the analysis. The median age at diagnosis was 68 years (IQR: 61-75). Patients with normal baseline CA 19-9 experienced longer median survival than patients with elevated levels [1L: 8.8 months (95% CI: 7.9 - 10) vs. 7.2 months (6.8 – 7.5), p < 0.001; 2L: 7.2 months (6.1 – 9.2) vs. 5.2 months (4.9 – 5.6), p < 0.001; 3L: 6.1 months (5.4 – 9.1) vs. 3.9 months (3.4 – 4.3), p < 0.001]. Patients with decreasing/stable CA 19-9 during treatment experienced longer survival than patients who experienced an increase in CA 19-9 levels [1L: 10.9 months (10.5 – 11.3) vs. 5.4 months (5.1 – 5.9), p < 0.0001; 2L: 8.2 months (7.7 – 8.5) vs. 4.3 months (4.1 – 4.7), p < 0.001; 3L: 7.5 months (6.6 – 9.2) vs. 3.7 months (3.4 – 4.3), p < 0.001].

Conclusions

In one of the largest, contemporary, real-world studies of patients with mPDAC, elevated CA 19-9 level at treatment initiation demonstrated a prognostic impact. Routine serial monitoring of CA 19-9 levels during treatment may be warranted, in addition to clinical and radiographic assessment, and may translate into better patient outcomes. Further validation studies are needed to understand the generalizability of these results.

Prognostic Role of Carbohydrate Antigen 19 to 9 in Predicting Survival of Patients With Pancreatic Cancer: A Meta-Analysis

This study evaluates the prognostic role of carbohydrate antigen 19 to 9 (CA19-9) in predicting survival of pancreatic cancer patients. Literature search was conducted in electronic databases (Google Scholar, Ovid, PubMed, and Science Direct) and study selection was based on precise eligibility criteria. Random-effects meta-analyses were performed to achieve overall estimates of median survival and hazard ratios (HRs) of survival with cutoff defined lower and higher CA19-9 levels before and after surgery or chemotherapy (CT)/radiotherapy (RT) and the changes in CA19-9 levels after any treatment. A total of 41 studies (6519 patients; 42% females; age 63.3 years [95% confidence interval [CI]: 62.2, 64.4]) were included. A pooled HR of 1.79 with a narrow 95% CI (1.58, 2.01) showed that higher CA19-9 levels or less decrease in CA19-9 levels after treatment predicted shorter survival. Median survival in patients with lower and higher preoperative CA19-9 levels was 23.2 months [95% CI: 17.2, 29.2] and 14.0 months [95% CI: 10.9, 17.2], respectively, whereas median survival with lower and higher postoperative CA19-9 levels was 25.0 months [95% CI: 21.9, 28.0] and 13.0 months [95% CI: 10.9, 15.0] respectively. Median survival with lower and higher pre-CT/RT CA19-9 levels was 11.9 months [95% CI: 10.2, 13.6] and 7.7 months [95% CI: 6.2, 9.2], respectively, whereas median survival with lower and higher post-CT/RT CA19-9 levels was 15.1 months [95% CI: 13.2, 17.0] and 10.7 months [95% CI: 7.3, 14.0] respectively. A decrease in CA19-9 levels after treatment was also associated with longer survival. Thus, both pretreatment and posttreatment CA19-9 levels or their changes after treatment have good prognostic value in determining the survival of pancreatic cancer patients.

Prognostic significance of skeletal muscle decrease in unresectable pancreatic cancer: Survival analysis using the Weibull exponential distribution model

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Decrease in skeletal muscle mass and function is associated with a poor prognosis following surgical resection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas (PDAs). This study evaluated whether skeletal muscle mass decrease affects PDA outcomes.

METHODS

Data of 112 patients with advanced and unresectable PDA who underwent chemotherapy in a single institution were retrospectively analyzed. Information on age, sex, hematological investigations, including systemic inflammation-based markers and nutritional assessment biomarkers, and imaging parameters of skeletal muscle mass and visceral adipose tissue were retrieved from the patients' medical records. The efficiency of the Cox, Weibull, and standardized exponential models were compared using hazard ratios and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC).

RESULTS

Results from the Weibull, Cox, and standardized exponential model analyses indicated that low skeletal muscle mass, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (PS), and the requirement of biliary drainage were associated with the highest risk of death, followed by carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels and the presence of ascites. The AIC value from the four significant parameters was lowest for the Weibull-exponential distribution (222.3) than that of the Cox (653.7) and standardized exponential models (265.7). We developed a model for estimating the 1-year survival probability using the Weibull-exponential distribution.

CONCLUSIONS

Low-skeletal muscle index, PS, requirement of biliary drainage, CEA levels, and presence of ascites are independent factors for predicting poor patient survival after chemotherapy. Improved survival modeling using a parametric approach may accurately predict the outcome of patients with advanced-stage PDA.

Gemcitabine Plus Nab-Paclitaxel as Second-Line Chemotherapy following FOLFIRINOX in Patients with Unresectable Pancreatic Cancer: A Single-Institution, Retrospective Analysis

INTRODUCTION

Patients with advanced pancreatic cancer have a poor prognosis. FOLFIRINOX (FFX) and gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel (GnP) have been established as first-line treatment, but they have not been confirmed as second-line treatment after FFX. The aim of this study was to evaluate the safety and efficacy of GnP as second-line therapy after FFX in patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer.

METHODS

Twenty-five patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer were enrolled. The patients were treated with GnP after FFX between September 2015 and September 2019. Tumor response, progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and incidence of adverse events were evaluated.

RESULTS

The response rate, disease control rate, median PFS, and median OS were 12%, 96%, 5.3 months, and 15.6 months, respectively. The common grade 3 or 4 adverse events were neutropenia (76%) and anemia (16%).

CONCLUSIONS

GnP after FOLFIRINOX is expected to be one of the second-line recommendations for patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer.

Therapeutic resistance of pancreatic cancer: Roadmap to its reversal

Pancreatic cancer is a lethal disease with limited opportunity for resectable surgery as the first choice for cure due to its late diagnosis and early metastasis. The desmoplastic stroma and cellular genetic or epigenetic alterations of pancreatic cancer impose physical and biological barriers to effective therapies, including chemotherapy, radiotherapy, targeted therapy, and immunotherapy. Here, we review the current therapeutic options for pancreatic cancer, and underlying mechanisms and potential reversal of therapeutic resistance, a hallmark of this deadly disease.

Tumor growth kinetics by CA 19-9 in patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer receiving chemotherapy: A retrospective analysis

BACKGROUND

Recently, measures of tumor growth kinetics calculated by carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA 19-9) determinations after cytotoxic chemotherapy (CHT) have been reported as effective prognostic indicators in locally-advanced unresectable and metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma (mPDAC). The study aims to evaluate the prognostic role of tumor kinetics measured by CA 19-9 in patients with mPDAC, measuring it by three different ways.

METHODS

Patients with mPDAC receiving a first-line CHT between 2009 and 2017 were identified, and those for whom CA 19-9 data were available were enrolled. Three CA 19-9-related variables were calculated: CA 19-9 related reduction rate (RR) and tumor growth rate (G), after 8 weeks of CHT, tumor growth and inflammation index (TGII), after 90 days of CHT. The relationships with the outcome were analysed, and a Cox model has been build with each of the three variables.

RESULTS

Of 118 patients only 48 were eligible for the analysis. RR, G, or TGII appear as significant prognostic factors, and, after multivariate analysis, a reduction rate of 20% the baseline or more was associated with good survival (HR 0.321; CIs 0.156-0.661) as well as a G > -0.4%/day (HR 2.114; CIs 1.034-4.321), whereas TGII >190 was not correlated with the outcome (HR 1.788; CIs 0.789-4.055).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with mPDAC, after 8 weeks of first-line CHT, CA 19-9-related tumor reduction or growth rate appear as valuable prognostic factors.

Circulating Cell-Free DNA-Based Liquid Biopsy Markers for the Non-Invasive Prognosis and Monitoring of Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer

Liquid biopsy may assist in the management of cancer patients, which can be particularly applicable in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). In this study, we investigated the utility of circulating cell-free DNA (cfDNA)-based markers as prognostic tools in metastatic PDAC. Plasma was obtained from 61 metastatic PDAC patients, and cfDNA levels and fragmentation were determined. BEAMing technique was used for quantitative determination of RAS mutation allele fraction (MAF) in cfDNA. We found that the prognosis was more accurately predicted by RAS mutation detection in plasma than in tissue. RAS mutation status in plasma was a strong independent prognostic factor for both overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). Moreover, RAS MAF in cfDNA was also an independent risk factor for poor OS, and was strongly associated with primary tumours in the body/tail of the pancreas and liver metastases. Higher cfDNA levels and fragmentation were also associated with poorer OS and shorter PFS, body/tail tumors, and hepatic metastases, whereas cfDNA fragmentation positively correlated with RAS MAF. Remarkably, the combination of CA19-9 with MAF, cfDNA levels and fragmentation improved the prognostic stratification of patients. Furthermore, dynamics of RAS MAF better correlated with patients’ outcome than standard CA19-9 marker. In conclusion, our study supports the use of cfDNA-based liquid biopsy markers as clinical tools for the non-invasive prognosis and monitoring of metastatic PDAC patients.

Pancreatic cancer

Pancreatic cancer is a highly fatal disease with a 5-year survival rate of approximately 10% in the USA, and it is becoming an increasingly common cause of cancer mortality. Risk factors for developing pancreatic cancer include family history, obesity, type 2 diabetes, and tobacco use. Patients typically present with advanced disease due to lack of or vague symptoms when the cancer is still localised. High quality computed tomography with intravenous contrast using a dual phase pancreatic protocol is typically the best method to detect a pancreatic tumour and to determine surgical resectability. Endoscopic ultrasound is an increasingly used complementary staging modality which also allows for diagnostic confirmation when combined with fine needle aspiration. Patients with pancreatic cancer are often divided into one of four categories based on extent of disease: resectable, borderline resectable, locally advanced, and metastatic; patient condition is also an important consideration. Surgical resection represents the only chance for cure, and advancements in adjuvant chemotherapy have improved long-term outcomes in these patients. Systemic chemotherapy combinations including FOLFIRINOX (5-fluorouracil, folinic acid [leucovorin], irinotecan, and oxaliplatin) and gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel remain the mainstay of treatment for patients with advanced disease. Data on the benefit of PARP inhibition as maintenance therapy in patients with germline BRCA1 or BRACA2 mutations might prove to be a harbinger of advancement in targeted therapy. Additional research efforts are focusing on modulating the pancreatic tumour microenvironment to enhance the efficacy of the immunotherapeutic strategies.

Prognostic and predictive factors in pancreatic cancer

Pancreatic cancer is one of the leading causes of cancer death worldwide. Its high mortality rate has remained unchanged for years. Radiotherapy and surgery are considered standard treatments in early and locally advanced stages. Chemotherapy is the only option for metastatic patients. Two treatment regimens, i. e. the association of 5-fluorouracil- irinotecan-oxaliplatin (FOLFIRINOX) and the association of nab-paclitaxel with gemcitabine, have been shown to improve outcomes for metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma patients. However, there are not standardized predictive biomarkers able to identify patients who benefit most from treatments. CA19-9 is the most studied prognostic biomarker, its predictive role remains unclear. Other clinical, histological and molecular biomarkers are emerging in prognostic and predictive settings. The aim of this review is to provide an overview of prognostic and predictive markers used in clinical practice and to explore the most promising fields of research in terms of treatment selection and tailored therapy in pancreatic cancer.

Predictive Value of Serum Carbohydrate Antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) for Early Mortality in Advanced Pancreatic Cancer

INTRODUCTION

Levels of carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) in metastatic pancreatic cancer are used in daily practice as a marker of response to chemotherapy. The association between CA19-9 levels and mortality remains uncertain. This study sought to determine the most accurate level of CA19-9 associated with early mortality, both at diagnosis and during the course of metastatic disease.

METHODS

This research is a retrospective analysis of 64 patients with metastatic adenocarcinoma of the pancreas evaluated from January 2010 to December 2015. A receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to evaluate the CA19-9 value and the association with early death (death within 2 months after diagnosis of advanced disease). The survival analysis was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method, and variables of interest were assessed by proportional hazards regression Cox models.

RESULTS

The mortality rate was 92.2%, and the estimated median survival was 11.0 months. For the ROC curve analysis of initial CA19-9, an area under the curve of 0.868 (95% confidence interval 0.782 to 0.954) was obtained; the cutoff of 2504 U/ml had a sensitivity of 100% and specificity of 82.8% for early death. The effect of initial CA19-9 and chemotherapy contributed independently to the survival time, and every increase of 1000 CA19-9 units increased the risk of death by 9% (p = 0.0003).

CONCLUSION

CA19-9 levels in advanced pancreatic adenocarcinoma are associated independently with worse prognosis and early death. CA19-9 levels could be considered as a stratification factor for future clinical trials.

Ki67 and P53 in Relation to Disease Progression in Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer: a Single Institution Analysis

We investigated the expression patterns of Ki67 and p53 in metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinomas and analyzed their relationship with disease progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in the overall study population and in patients treated with a gemcitabine-containing chemotherapy versus FOLFIRINOX chemotherapy. Patients with histologically confirmed stage IV adenocarcinoma of the pancreas treated at AUBMC were included after obtaining institutional review board approval (IRB ID: IM.ST.05). The ROC was plotted to identify the threshold Ki-67, p53 and CA19-9 value for disease progression, the identified value was further used in Kaplan Meier curves to compare PFS for both groups (gemcitabine versus FOLFIRINOX). A value of p < 0.05 was considered significant in all analyses. On univariate analysis, patients who had a Ki-67 > 12.5% or a p53 > 15% had significantly shorter PFS (p = 0.034 and p = 0.016, respectively). This effect was restricted to Gemcitabine or gemcitabine-combination treated patients. A decrease in CA19-9 levels 6-8 weeks after chemotherapy of >58% had significantly longer PFS (p = 0.027). On multivariate analysis after controlling for grade, age and P53, Ki-67 remained significant, for every one unit increase in Ki-67 the progression risk increases by 1.017 times. Our study highlights the negative impact of high P53 expression and Ki67 proliferation index on PFS in patients with metastatic pancreatic cancer.

Early Response Assessment in Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma Through Integrated PET/MRI

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study is to investigate early changes in ¹⁸F-FDG PET/MRI metrics after treatment in patients with advanced pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) and to correlate those changes with eventual tumor response at standard-of-care CT.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

Thirteen patients with advanced PDAC underwent integrated FDG PET/MRI before and 4 weeks after treatment initiation. Patients were classified as responders or nonresponders according to Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) 1.1 at subsequent CT performed 8-12 weeks after treatment initiation. Changes in the primary tumor's maximum standardized uptake value (SUV_max), metabolic tumor volume (MTV), and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) determined at PET and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) determined at DWI at 4 weeks were compared between responders and nonresponders.

RESULTS

Seven patients had a partial response according to RECIST, and six did not. Responders displayed significantly greater decreases in MTV (p = 0.003) and TLG (p = 0.006) in the primary pancreatic tumor at 4 weeks. Responders also displayed a greater increase in the mean (p = 0.004) and minimum (p = 0.024) ADC of the primary tumors. Tumor size change at 4 weeks was not significantly different between responders and nonresponders (p = 0.11). PET responders enjoyed longer progression-free survival (PFS) (p = 0.0004) and overall survival (OS) (p = 0.013) than did nonresponders, using either a 60% reduction in MTV or 65% reduction in TLG as a threshold. MRI responders had significantly longer PFS (p = 0.0002) and OS (p = 0.027) than did nonresponders, using a 20% increase in either mean or minimum ADC as a threshold.

CONCLUSION

Integrated PET/MRI can provide early response assessment in patients with advanced PDAC, thus potentially allowing early treatment adaptation in nonresponders.

A varying-coefficient cox model for the effect of CA19-9 kinetics on overall survival in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer

Purpose

To evaluate the relationship between serum CA19-9 and overall survival in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer.

Methods

109 advanced pancreatic cancer patients with gemcitabine based first-line chemotherapy were included. The effect of pretreatment CA19-9 level on overall survival was modeled by Cox proportional hazard regression. The effect of CA19-9 kinetics on overall survival was modeled by an extended Cox regression with a time varying coefficient and a time varying covariate.

Results

Univariate analysis indicated that baseline CA19-9 correlated with OS (HR = 1.66, p < 0.01) and this association remained significant within multivariate analysis (HR = 1.56, P < 0.01). For the analysis of CA19-9 kinetics, the extended Cox model showed that the effect of CA19-9 on overall survival changed with time: increased in the first two months and reached the top at a HR of about 2, then decreased for the next two months to a HR of about 1.56 and finally tended to be stable. The combination of pretreatment CA19-9 and CA19-9 at 2 month may better evaluate the patients’ prognosis compared to pretreatment CA19-9 alone.

Conclusion

Pretreatment CA19-9 and CA19-9 kinetics may serve as a useful serum biomarker in advanced pancreatic cancer.

Combined pretreatment serum CA19-9 and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio as a potential prognostic factor in metastatic pancreatic cancer patients

The aim of this study was to explore the role of combined pretreatment serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) as potential prognostic factors in metastatic pancreatic cancer patients.We investigated pretreatment serum CA19-9 and NLR in 59 metastatic pancreatic cancer patients, determined the patients' thresholds by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, and assessed their prognostic values by Kaplan-Meier curve and Cox regression models.Results of multivariate analysis showed high CA19-9, high NLR, and high score (the scoring system of CA19-9 and NLR) were significantly correlated with overall survival. Area under the curve of the scoring system was higher than that of CA19-9 or NLR.Combined pretreatment serum CA19-9 and NLR is a better prognostic biomarker of metastatic pancreatic cancer patients than CA19-9 or NLR alone.

Serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 in pancreatic adenocarcinoma: a mini review for surgeons

The optimal management of oncological conditions is reflected by the careful interpretation of investigations for screening, diagnosis, staging, prognostication and surveillance. Serum tumour markers are examples of commonly requested tests in conjunction with other imaging and endoscopic tests that are used to help clinicians to stratify therapeutic decisions. Serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) is a key biomarker for pancreatic cancers. Although this biomarker is considered clinically useful and informative, clinicians are often challenged by the accurate interpretation of elevated serum CA19-9 levels. Recognizing the pitfalls of normal and abnormal serum CA19-9 concentrations will facilitate its appropriate use. In this review, we appraised the biomarker, serum CA19-9, and highlighted the clinical utility and limitations of serum CA19-9 in the investigation and management of pancreatic cancers.

Retrospective Analysis of CA19-9 Decrease in Patients with Metastatic Pancreatic Carcinoma Treated with FOLFIRINOX or Gemcitabine in a Randomized Phase III Study (ACCORD11/PRODIGE4)

OBJECTIVES

Carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) is a sensitive and specific serum marker in pancreatic cancer. Our retrospective analysis aims to evaluate CA19-9 decrease in patients with metastatic pancreatic cancer treated in ACCORD11/PRODIGE4 (FOLFIRINOX vs. gemcitabine).

METHODS

A total of 342 patients were treated. CA19-9 was measured at 8 weeks (±2) in 160 patients from a total of 282 with abnormal CA19-9 values at baseline (gemcitabine arm, n = 75; FOLFIRINOX arm, n = 85). In the present study, 8-week CA19-9 decrease or greater CA19-9 decrease according to the 20 and 90% thresholds were analyzed. Progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were estimated in each subgroup.

RESULTS

In the FOLFIRINOX arm, patients with an 8-week CA19-9 decrease or greater CA19-9 decrease ≥20% showed improved median OS, PFS, and objective response rate. In the overall study population, median OS and PFS were significantly improved in patients with an 8-week CA19-9 decrease ≥20% (vs. <20%). The 8-week CA19-9 decrease was predictive of PFS (interaction test significant according to treatment arm; p = 0.006).

CONCLUSION

An 8-week CA19-9 decrease ≥20% is a prognostic factor for OS and PFS. The 8-week CA19-9 decrease (20% threshold) is predictive of PFS. It could help to evaluate the efficacy of FOLFIRINOX and gemcitabine regimens.

Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Survival in Patients with Advanced Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

This study aimed to develop and validate an effective prognostic nomogram for advanced PDAC patients. We conducted a prospective multicenter cohort study involving 1,526 advanced PDAC patients from three participating hospitals in China between January 1, 2004 and December 31, 2013. Two thirds of the patients were randomly assigned to the training set (n = 1,017), and one third were assigned to the validation set (n = 509). Multivariate cox regression analysis was performed to identify significant prognostic factors for overall survival to develop the nomogram. Internal and external validation using C-index and calibration curve were conducted in the training set and validation set respectively. As results, seven independent prognostic factors were identified: age, tumor stage, tumor size, ALT (alanine aminotransferase), ALB (albumin), CA 19-9, HBV infection status, and these factors were entered into the nomogram. The proposed nomogram showed favorable discrimination and calibration both in the training set and validation set. The C-indexes of the training set and validation set were 0.720 and 0.696 respectively, which were both significantly higher than that of the staging system (C-index = 0.613, P < 0.001). In conclusion, the proposed nomogram may be served as an effective tool for prognostic evaluation of advanced PDAC.

CA19-9-related tumor kinetics after first-line chemotherapy of patients with advanced pancreatic cancer: a monoinstitutional experience

The absolute value of carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) pretreatment and its reduction after chemotherapy are established prognostic variables for patients with advanced pancreatic cancer. The present study is a retrospective monoinstitutional evaluation of the prognostic role of the CA19-9 reduction and some CA19-9-related tumor kinetics parameters, such as tumor growth rate constant (G), kinetic tumor response and log ratio. Forty-one cases met the selection criteria. After 8 weeks only G reported an inverse relationship with OS (r = -0.494) that was confirmed by regression analysis (R (2) = 0.192). G after 8 weeks of chemotherapy appears as a possible surrogate end point of overall survival.

The clinical utility of normal range carbohydrate antigen 19-9 level as a surrogate marker in evaluating response to treatment in pancreatic cancer-a report of two cases

Carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA 19-9) is a tumor marker that is has been has been intensely studied and investigated as a surrogate marker in pancreatic cancer (PC). It is also commonly utilized in the clinical management of PC. We report two cases where normal range CA 19-9 level has been shown to be useful as a surrogate marker for following PC progression and response to treatment. Initially in our cases, both patients had a resectable tumor and their tumor markers were within normal range. In both cases the normal range CA 19-9 increase from the baseline was associated with corresponding progressive disease on imaging studies and CA 19-9 decline was in keeping with response to systemic and local therapy despite being within the normal range. To our knowledge, this is the first case report where we report the utility of serial normal values of CA 19-9 as a useful tool in following PC disease activity and in response to treatment. Clinicians should consider measuring serial normal values of CA 19-9 in patients with PC and normal range CA 19-9 which may help in assessing response to treatment in subset of this population.

Quantitative Analysis of (18)F-Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography Identifies Novel Prognostic Imaging Biomarkers in Locally Advanced Pancreatic Cancer Patients Treated With Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy

PURPOSE

To identify prognostic biomarkers in pancreatic cancer using high-throughput quantitative image analysis.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

In this institutional review board-approved study, we retrospectively analyzed images and outcomes for 139 locally advanced pancreatic cancer patients treated with stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). The overall population was split into a training cohort (n=90) and a validation cohort (n=49) according to the time of treatment. We extracted quantitative imaging characteristics from pre-SBRT (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography, including statistical, morphologic, and texture features. A Cox proportional hazard regression model was built to predict overall survival (OS) in the training cohort using 162 robust image features. To avoid over-fitting, we applied the elastic net to obtain a sparse set of image features, whose linear combination constitutes a prognostic imaging signature. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate the association with OS, and concordance index (CI) was used to evaluate the survival prediction accuracy.

RESULTS

The prognostic imaging signature included 7 features characterizing different tumor phenotypes, including shape, intensity, and texture. On the validation cohort, univariate analysis showed that this prognostic signature was significantly associated with OS (P=.002, hazard ratio 2.74), which improved upon conventional imaging predictors including tumor volume, maximum standardized uptake value, and total legion glycolysis (P=.018-.028, hazard ratio 1.51-1.57). On multivariate analysis, the proposed signature was the only significant prognostic index (P=.037, hazard ratio 3.72) when adjusted for conventional imaging and clinical factors (P=.123-.870, hazard ratio 0.53-1.30). In terms of CI, the proposed signature scored 0.66 and was significantly better than competing prognostic indices (CI 0.48-0.64, Wilcoxon rank sum test P<1e-6).

CONCLUSION

Quantitative analysis identified novel (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography image features that showed improved prognostic value over conventional imaging metrics. If validated in large, prospective cohorts, the new prognostic signature might be used to identify patients for individualized risk-adaptive therapy.

Early decrement of serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 predicts favorable outcome in advanced pancreatic cancer

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The role of carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA 19-9) for predicting treatment outcome in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) remains to be elucidated. This study was aimed to determine the correlation between early decrement in CA 19-9 concentration and prognosis of advanced PDAC after chemotherapy.

METHODS

All patients confirmed with locally advanced or metastatic PDAC who received initial systemic chemotherapy for at least two cycles in our institution between January 2012 and December 2013 were included. Serum CA 19-9 concentrations at baseline and 8 weeks after the initiation of chemotherapy were obtained. Correlation between CA 19-9 decrement and survival outcomes (time to progression [TTP] and overall survival [OS]) were evaluated.

RESULTS

A total of 183 patients with initially elevated CA 19-9 were included. OS and TTP was significantly longer for patients whose serum CA 19-9 concentration decreased more than 10% from baseline (n = 103), than that for patients whose serum CA 19-9 was not decreased (n = 80) (423 vs 155 days, P < 0.001 for OS and 222 vs 75 days, P < 0.001 for TTP). In multivariate analysis, CA 19-9 decrement more than 10% from baseline was still a significant factor for longer OS (hazard ratio for progression 0.275 [0.184-0.412], P < 0.001) and TTP (0.322 [0.219-0.473], P < 0.001) in both stage III and IV.

CONCLUSIONS

The early decrement of CA 19-9 after the initiation of chemotherapy was an independent factor related with better survival outcomes in unresectable PDAC.

CA19-9 decrease at 8 weeks as a predictor of overall survival in a randomized phase III trial (MPACT) of weekly nab-paclitaxel plus gemcitabine versus gemcitabine alone in patients with metastatic pancreatic cancer

Any CA19-9 decline at week 8 and radiologic response by week 8 each predicted longer OS in both treatment arms. In the nab-P + Gem arm, the higher proportion of patients with week 8 CA19-9 decrease [82% (206/252); median OS 13.2 months] than a RECIST-defined response [16% (40/252); median OS 13.7 months] suggests that CA19-9 decline is a predictor of OS applicable to a larger population.

Background

A phase I/II study and subsequent phase III study (MPACT) reported significant correlations between CA19-9 decreases and prolonged overall survival (OS) with nab-paclitaxel plus gemcitabine (nab-P + Gem) treatment for metastatic pancreatic cancer (MPC). CA19-9 changes at week 8 and potential associations with efficacy were investigated as part of an exploratory analysis in the MPACT trial.

Patients and methods

Untreated patients with MPC (N = 861) received nab-P + Gem or Gem alone. CA19-9 was evaluated at baseline and every 8 weeks.

Results

Patients with baseline and week-8 CA19-9 measurements were analyzed (nab-P + Gem: 252; Gem: 202). In an analysis pooling the treatments, patients with any CA19-9 decline (80%) versus those without (20%) had improved OS (median 11.1 versus 8.0 months; P = 0.005). In the nab-P + Gem arm, patients with (n = 206) versus without (n = 46) any CA19-9 decrease at week 8 had a confirmed overall response rate (ORR) of 40% versus 13%, and a median OS of 13.2 versus 8.3 months (P = 0.001), respectively. In the Gem-alone arm, patients with (n = 159) versus without (n = 43) CA19-9 decrease at week 8 had a confirmed ORR of 15% versus 5%, and a median OS of 9.4 versus 7.1 months (P = 0.404), respectively. In the nab-P + Gem and Gem-alone arms, by week 8, 16% (40/252) and 6% (13/202) of patients, respectively, had an unconfirmed radiologic response (median OS 13.7 and 14.7 months, respectively), and 79% and 84% of patients, respectively, had stable disease (SD) (median OS 11.1 and 9 months, respectively). Patients with SD and any CA19-9 decrease (158/199 and 133/170) had a median OS of 13.2 and 9.4 months, respectively.

Conclusion

This analysis demonstrated that, in patients with MPC, any CA19-9 decrease at week 8 can be an early marker for chemotherapy efficacy, including in those patients with SD. CA19-9 decrease identified more patients with survival benefit than radiologic response by week 8.

Potential prognostic significance of a new proteomic profile in patients with advanced pancreatic adenocarcinoma

OBJECTIVES

Seven-signal proteomic approach has recently been developed as a new proteomic profile measured by matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization mass spectrometry. The aim of this study was to evaluate prognostic significance of this proteomic value in patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

METHODS

Blood samples from the patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma were prospectively collected before treatments including surgical resection and systemic chemotherapies. The seven-signal proteomic profiles of the samples were measured, and the prognostic significance of the proteomic value was evaluated through comparison with other existing prognostic markers.

RESULTS

Cut-off value of the proteomic profiles at 52 stratified overall prognosis of the patients (6.5 months vs. 10.9 months with the values ≥52 vs. <52, p = 0.020). In subgroup analyses of inoperable cases with carcinoembryonic antigen level of <5 ng/ml or performance status of 0-1, the proteomic value at 52 stratified their prognosis (p = 0.002 and p = 0.006, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The new seven-signal proteomics showed useful prognostic significance for patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Further studies with a large sample size would be required to evaluate whether this proteomic approach possibly complements the existing parameters, such as carcinoembryonic antigen and performance status.

A prognostic index model to predict the clinical outcomes for advanced pancreatic cancer patients following palliative chemotherapy

Purpose

To establish a prognostic index model for advanced pancreatic cancer patients receiving palliative chemotherapy based on clinical variables.

Methods

The clinical data of 118 patients with advanced pancreatic cancer who received palliative chemotherapy between January 2006 and August 2013 in our center were retrospectively analyzed. Prognostic factors for overall survival were identified using Cox proportional hazards model. A prognostic index model was established by these pretreatment factors to predict prognosis. Kaplan–Meier estimation and log-rank test were performed to compare the overall survival difference between low-risk and high-risk group of patients.

Results

Median overall survival time for all patients was 8.8 months [95 % confidence interval (CI) 7.0–10.6 months]. Multivariate analysis identified ECOG score = 2 (hazard ratio 2.03; 95 % CI 1.07–3.85; P = 0.030), CA19-9 levels of ≥1000 U/mL (hazard ratio 2.07; 95 % CI 1.09–3.92; P = 0.026), and CRP levels of ≥5 mg/L (hazard ratio 2.05; 95 % CI 1.06–3.96; P = 0.033) as independent poor prognostic factors for overall survival. For the three factors, ECOG score = 2, CA19-9 levels of ≥1000 U/mL, and CRP levels of ≥5 mg/L were allocated 1 point each. There were 84 (71.2 %) patients allocated to low-risk group with total score 0–1 point, and 34 (28.8 %) patients were categorized as high-risk group with total scores 2–3 points. The median overall survival for low-risk group and high-risk group was 9.9 months (95 % CI 6.8–13.0) and 5.3 months (95 % CI 4.1–6.5), respectively (hazard ratio 0.27; 95 % CI 0.14–0.52; P < 0.001). The estimated 1-year survival rates for low-risk group and high-risk group were 40.5 and 5.9 %, respectively (P < 0.05).

Conclusions

A novel prognostic index model based on three clinical parameters was established to predict the prognosis of patients with advanced pancreatic cancer receiving palliative chemotherapy.

Prognostic factors of survival in a randomized phase III trial (MPACT) of weekly nab-paclitaxel plus gemcitabine versus gemcitabine alone in patients with metastatic pancreatic cancer

BACKGROUND

nab-Paclitaxel in combination with gemcitabine has emerged as a new treatment option for patients with metastatic pancreatic cancer (MPC), based on superiority over gemcitabine demonstrated in the phase III MPACT trial. Previously, Karnofsky performance status (KPS) score and the presence of liver metastases were shown to be predictive of survival with nab-paclitaxel plus gemcitabine treatment. This analysis sought to further explore the relationship between clinical characteristics and survival in the MPACT trial and to identify potential predictors of overall survival and progression-free survival in patients with MPC.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Cox regression models adjusted for stratification factors and a stepwise multivariate analysis of prespecified baseline prognostic factors were performed.

RESULTS

Treatment effect was significantly associated with survival, with a similar magnitude of reduction in risk of death compared with the previously reported primary analysis. Treatment effect consistently favored nab-paclitaxel plus gemcitabine across the majority of the prespecified factors. In addition to KPS score and presence of liver metastases, age and number of metastatic sites were independent prognostic factors of overall and progression-free survival. Baseline carbohydrate antigen 19-9 was not found to be an independent prognostic factor of survival in this analysis.

CONCLUSION

The results of this analysis confirm broad utility of nab-paclitaxel plus gemcitabine for the treatment of MPC. In addition, these findings suggest that KPS score, presence of liver metastases, age, and number of metastatic sites are important predictors of survival that may be useful when making treatment decisions and designing future clinical trials.

[Prognostic factors in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer treated with gemcitabine chemotherapy: clinical characteristics of long-term survivors]

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Gemcitabine-based chemotherapy has been used as a standard treatment in patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer. However, the clinical outcomes of this regimen are still unsatisfactory in prolonging survival. We retrospectively analyzed clinical characteristics of patients with advanced pancreatic cancers who received gemcitabine-based chemotherapy and showed long-term survival.

METHODS

We enrolled 49 patients who underwent treatment with more than three cycles of gemcitabine-based chemotherapy. Long-term survivor was defined as patient who has survived more than 12 months after diagnosis. The clinical characteristics were analyzed to compare the differences between long-term and short-term survivors. Univariate or multivariate analyses were performed to identify prognostic factors associated with chemo-responses.

RESULTS

Twenty patients (41%) survived more than 12 months. Long-term survivors had smaller tumor size (OR 2.190, p=0.049, 95% CI 1.005-4.773) and higher serum BUN level (OR 0.833, p=0.039, 95% CI 0.701-0.990) compared to short-term survivors. Overall median and progression-free survivals were 11 and 4 months, respectively. Presence of distant metastasis (hazard ratio 1.441, p=0.035, 95% CI 1.002-2.908) was a significant independent predictor of progression-free survival. Tumor size (hazard ratio 1.534, p=0.004, 95% CI 1.150-2.045) was associated with overall survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Gemcitabine chemotherapy may be more effective and allow longer survivals in patients with clinical characters of smaller tumor size and normal serum BUN level at diagnosis. We suggest a well-designed large controlled study to evaluate the prognostic factors such as clinical characteristics and molecular biological features in patients with advanced pancreatic cancers who receive gemcitabine-based chemotherapy.

Clinical characteristics of long-term survivors of inoperable pancreatic cancer: an 8-year cohort analysis in Korea

OBJECTIVES

Inoperable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma is known to have an extremely poor prognosis. Although rare, there are some patients who have unexpected long-term survival, but the reason is not yet clear.

METHODS

A total of 482 inoperable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma of 1602 patients diagnosed at Severance Hospital between 2002 and 2009 were evaluated, who were selected statistically with a retrospective cohort study. They were divided into locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC) and metastatic pancreatic cancer (MPC). Short-term survivors (SS group) were defined as patients who survived less than 9 months with LAPC and 6 months with MPC. Patients who survived 3 times longer than the SS group were classified as long-term survivors (LS group). Predictive factors of long-survival were identified by comparing the 2 groups, and effects of these factors on survival were investigated statistically.

RESULTS

In multivariate analysis, better performance status and lower CA19-9 were related to overall survival in LAPC. In MPC, younger age, better performance status, peritoneal metastasis, higher serum albumin, lower CA19-9, and CA19-9 variation were related to overall survival.

CONCLUSIONS

These parameters related to long-term survivors of advanced pancreatic cancer can be useful for the expectation of survival. In the near future, conjunction of these clinical factors and novel molecular biologic characteristics of individual patients can be used for the personalized therapy.

Duodenal Hemorrhage from Pancreatic Cancer Infiltration Controlled through Combination Therapy with Gemcitabine and S-1

2.6% of pancreatic cancer patients have the primary manifestation of gastrointestinal bleeding. It is not feasible to stop the duodenal hemorrhage caused by the pancreatic cancer infiltration. A 43-year-old woman who was diagnosed as having pancreatic cancer with multiple hepatic metastases and duodenal infiltration was administered gemcitabine and S-1 combination therapy. During the chemotherapy, initially, bleeding occurred due to duodenal infiltration. However, we continued the chemotherapy and duodenal infiltration was markedly reduced in size and did not rebleed. Aggressive chemotherapy contributed to maintenance of performance status as well as improvement of quality of life for the patient.

A retrospective analysis of early CA19‑9 change in salvage chemotherapy for refractory pancreatic cancer

PURPOSE

In salvage chemotherapy for refractory pancreatic cancer, early assessment is important to avoid unnecessary toxicities from ineffective chemotherapy. Early CA19-9 change after the first course as a prognostic factor was evaluated in this setting.

METHODS

Patients receiving salvage chemotherapy were retrospectively studied. CA19-9 was measured prior to and after the first course. Cox regression analysis was performed for prognostic factors for progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS), using the landmark method defined as a day of CA19-9 measurement after the first course.

RESULTS

A total of 239 salvage regimens were given in 167 patients. Median PFS and OS were 2.7 and 6.1 months, respectively. Median pretreatment CA19-9 was 2,362 U/mL, and median CA19-9 change after the first course was 17.8 % increase. CA19-9 change was associated with tumor response, and PFS was 1.7 versus 3.5 months and OS was 3.9 and 8.6 months in patients with ≥50 % versus <50 % increase. In the multivariate analyses, CA19-9 increase ≥50 % was prognostic of both PFS and OS (HR 2.28 and 2.50, p < 0.001, respectively).

CONCLUSION

CA19-9 change after the first course was prognostic of PFS and OS in refractory pancreatic cancer. Early discontinuation should be considered given the palliative setting.

Pancreatic cancer and predictors of survival: comparing the CA 19-9/bilirubin ratio with the McGill Brisbane Symptom Score

INTRODUCTION

Few tools predict survival from pancreatic cancer (PAC). The McGill Brisbane Symptom Score (MBSS) based on symptoms at presentation (weight loss, pain, jaundice and smoking) was recently validated. The present study compares the ability of four strategies to predict 9-month survival: MBSS, carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA 19-9) alone, CA19-9-to-bilirubin ratio and a combination of MBSS and the CA19-9-to-bilirubin ratio.

METHODOLOGY

A retrospective review of 133 patients diagnosed with PAC between 2005 and 2011 was performed. Survival was determined from the Quebec civil registry. Blood CA 19-9 and bilirubin values were collected (n = 52) at the time of diagnosis. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to determine a cutoff for optimal test characteristics of CA 19-9 and CA19-9-to-total bilirubin ratio in predicting survival at 9 months. Predictive characteristics were then calculated for the four strategies.

RESULTS

Of the four strategies, the one with the greatest negative predictive value was the MBSS: negative predictive value (NPV) was 90.2% (76.9-97.3%) and the positive likelihood ratio (LR) was the greatest. The ability of CA 19-9 levels alone, at baseline, to predict survival was low. For the CA19-9-to-bilirubin ratio, the test characteristics improved but remained non-significant. The best performing strategy according to likelihood ratios was the combined MBSS and CA19-9 to the bilirubin ratio.

CONCLUSION

CA19-9 levels and the CA19-9-to-bilirubin ratio are poor predictors of survival for PAC, whereas the MBSS is a far better predictor, confirming its clinical value. By adding the CA19-9-to-bilirubin ratio to the MBSS the predictive characteristics improved.

Serum CA 19-9 and CEA levels as a prognostic factor in pancreatic adenocarcinoma

PURPOSE

To investigate the use of pretreatment carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9 and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) as prognostic factors to determine survival in pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective review of the medical records of patients who were diagnosed with pancreatic adenocarcinoma and received surgery, chemoradiotherapy or chemotherapy was performed. Factors, including CA 19-9 and CEA, associated with the survival of pancreatic cancer patients were analyzed.

RESULTS

Patients with the median age of 65 years were included (n=187). Elevated serum CA 19-9 levels and CEA levels were observed in 75.4% and 39% of patients at diagnosis, respectively. CEA was correlated with tumor stages (p=0.005), but CA 19-9 was not. CA 19-9 and CEA were elevated in 69.0% and 33.3% of patients with resectable pancreatic cancer, and elevated in 72.9% and 47.2% of patients with advanced pancreatic cancer, respectively. The median overall survival of the normal serum CEA group was longer than that of the elevated serum CEA group (16.3 months vs. 10.2 months, p=0.004). However, the median overall survival of the normal serum CA 19-9 group was not different from that of the elevated serum CA 19-9 group (12.4 months vs. 13.5 months, p=0.969). The independent factors associated with overall survival were advanced pancreatic cancer [harzard ratio (HR) 4.33, p=0.001] and elevated serum CEA level (HR 1.52, p=0.032).

CONCLUSION

Patients with elevated serum CEA level at diagnosis demonstrated poor overall survival. Pretreatment CEA level may predict the prognosis of patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

53BP1 expression is a modifier of the prognostic value of lymph node ratio and CA 19-9 in pancreatic adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

53BP1 binds to the tumor suppressor p53 and has a key role in DNA damage response and repair. Low 53BP1 expression has been associated with decreased survival in breast cancer and has been shown to interact with several prognostic factors in non-small cell lung cancer. The role of 53BP1 in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) has yet to be determined. We aimed to investigate whether 53BP1 levels interact with established prognostic factors in PDAC.

METHODS

106 patients for whom there was tissue available at time of surgical resection for PDAC were included. A tissue microarray was constructed using surgical specimens, stained with antibodies to 53BP1, and scored for expression intensity. Univariate and multivariate statistical analyses were performed to investigate the association between 53BP1 and patient survival with known prognostic factors for survival.

RESULTS

The association of 53BP1 with several established prognostic factors was examined, including stage, tumor grade, surgical margin, peripancreatic extension, lymph node ratio (LNR), and CA 19-9. We found that 53BP1 modified the effects of known prognostic variables including LNR and CA 19-9 on survival outcomes. When 53BP1 intensity was low, increased LNR was associated with decreased OS (HR 4.84, 95% CI (2.26, 10.37), p<0.001) and high CA19-9 was associated with decreased OS (HR 1.72, 95% CI (1.18, 2.51), p=0.005). When 53BP1 intensity was high, LNR and CA19-9 were no longer associated with OS (p=0.958 and p=0.606, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, 53BP1, a key player in DNA damage response and repair, was found to modify the prognostic value of two established prognostic factors, LNR and CA 19-9, suggesting 53BP1 may alter tumor behavior and ultimately impact how we interpret the value of other prognostic factors.

Human equilibrative nucleoside transporter 1 expression is a strong independent prognostic factor in UICC T3-T4 pancreatic cancer patients treated with preoperative gemcitabine-based chemoradiotherapy

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

We aimed to determine the relationship between the intratumoral expression of human equilibrative nucleoside transporter (hENT1), the main gemcitabine transporter into cells, and the outcome of gemcitabine-based chemoradiotherapy (Gem-CRT) in patients with International Union Against Cancer (UICC) T3-T4 pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

METHODS

The expressions of hENT1, thymidylate synthase (TS), and dihydropyrimidine dehydrogenase were immunohistochemically analyzed using the resected specimens from 55 patients (T3, 38 and T4, 17) who had received curative-intent resection after Gem-CRT.

RESULTS

The status of hENT1 expression (positive in 39 and negative in 16) was significantly associated with "clinical efficacy" (defined as more than 50% reduction of the serum carbohydrate antigen [CA] 19-9 level with stable disease [SD] or partial response [PR] according to the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors [RECIST]) for Gem-CRT. The 1- and 3-year overall survival (OS) rates were significantly higher in the positive hENT1 expression group (82.9, 39.5%) than in the negative expression group (42.9, 14.3%) (p = 0.0037). According to combination analysis of hENT1 and TS expressions, the 1- and 3-year OS rates were significantly higher in the positive-low combination (89.1, 51.0%) group than in the negative-high group (66.7, 0%) (p = 0.023). Multivariate analysis revealed that positive hENT1 expression and R0 resection were significant prognostic factors for OS.

CONCLUSIONS

The hENT1 expression in pancreatic adenocarcinoma strongly influences the outcome of preoperative Gem-CRT treatment. This biomarker could become a useful predictor of therapeutic effect for gemcitabine-based therapy in pancreatic cancer patients.

5-Fluorouracil/leucovorin combined with irinotecan and oxaliplatin (FOLFIRINOX) as second-line chemotherapy in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer who have progressed on gemcitabine-based therapy

BACKGROUND/AIMS

There is no standard consensus on a strategy in the second-line setting for gemcitabine-refractory advanced pancreatic cancer. This study evaluated the activity and tolerability of oxaliplatin, irinotecan, 5-fluorouracil and leucovorin (FOLFIRINOX) as a second-line therapy in advanced pancreatic adenocarcinoma pretreated with a gemcitabine-based regimen.

METHODS

A retrospective survey was carried out on 18 patients with advanced pancreatic cancer who had been on gemcitabine-based chemotherapy and were then treated with FOLFIRINOX as a second-line therapy.

RESULTS

One patient (5.6%) had a confirmed complete response, 4 (22.2%) had confirmed partial responses and 5 (27.8%) had stable disease, resulting in a rate of disease control of 55.6% (95% CI, 33.3-77.8%). The median progression-free survival and median survival were 2.8 months and 8.4 months, respectively. Seven patients (38.9%) experienced grade 3-4 neutropenia. Grade 3 or 4 nonhematologic adverse events included nausea (38.9%) and vomiting (16.7%).

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest the modest clinical activity regarding efficacy and the acceptable toxicity profile with the FOLFIRINOX regimen as a second-line treatment.

Lymph node ratio and preoperative CA 19-9 levels predict overall survival and recurrence-free survival in patients with resected pancreatic adenocarcinoma

AIM: Clinicopathologic factors predicting overall survival (OS) would help identify a subset to benefit from adjuvant therapy.

METHODS: One hundred and sixty-nine patients patients from 1984 to 2009 with curative resections for pancreatic adenocarcinoma were included. Tumors were staged by American Joint Committee on Cancer 7th edition criteria. Univariate and multivariable analyses were performed using Kaplan-Meier methodology or Cox proportional hazard models. Log-rank tests were performed. Statistical inferences were assessed by two-sided 5% significance level.

RESULTS: Median age was 67.1 (57.2-73.0) years with equal gender distribution. Tumors were in the head (89.3%) or body/tail (10.7%). On univariate analysis, adjuvant therapy, lymph node (LN) ratio, histologic grade, negative margin status, absence of peripancreatic extension, and T stage were associated with improved OS. Adjuvant therapy, LN ratio, histologic grade, number of nodes examined, negative LN status, and absence of peripancreatic extension were associated with improved recurrence-free survival (RFS). On multivariable analysis, LN ratio and carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9 levels were associated with OS. LN ratio was associated with RFS.

CONCLUSION: The LN ratio and CA 19-9 levels are independent prognostic factors following curative resections of pancreatic cancer.

The clinical utility of serum CA 19-9 in the diagnosis, prognosis and management of pancreatic adenocarcinoma: An evidence based appraisal

BACKGROUND

Serum carbohydrate antigen (CA 19-9) is the most common tumor marker assessed in pancreatic cancer patients; nevertheless few articles have comprehensively evaluated the evidence for its utility in pancreatic cancer management.

METHODS

Literature search was performed using Medline with keywords "pancreatic cancer", "tumor markers", "CA 19-9", "diagnosis", "screening", "prognosis", "resectability" and "recurrence". All English language articles pertaining to the role of CA 19-9 in pancreatic cancer were critically analyzed to determine its utility as a biomarker for pancreatic cancer.

RESULTS

Serum CA 19-9 is the most extensively validated pancreatic cancer biomarker with multiple clinical applications. CA 19-9 serum levels have a sensitivity and specificity of 79-81% and 82-90% respectively for the diagnosis of pancreatic cancer in symptomatic patients; but are not useful as a screening marker because of low positive predictive value (0.5-0.9%). Pre-operative CA 19-9 serum levels provide useful prognostic information as patients with normal levels (<37 U/mL) have a prolonged median survival (32-36 months) compared to patients with elevated levels (>37 U/mL) (12-15 months). A CA 19-9 serum level of <100 U/mL implies likely resectable disease whereas levels >100 U/mL suggest unresectablity or metastatic disease. Normalization or a decrease in post-operative CA 19-9 serum levels by ≥20-50% from baseline following surgical resection or chemotherapy is associated with prolonged survival compared to failure of CA 19-9 serum levels to normalize or an increase. Important limitations to CA 19-9 serum level evaluation in pancreatic cancer include poor sensitivity, false negative results in Lewis negative phenotype (5-10%) and increased false positivity in the presence of obstructive jaundice (10-60%).

CONCLUSIONS

CA 19-9 is the most extensively studied and validated serum biomarker for the diagnosis of pancreatic cancer in symptomatic patients. CA 19-9 serum levels can provide important information with regards to prognosis, overall survival, and response to chemotherapy as well as predict post-operative recurrence. However, non-specific expression in several benign and malignant diseases, false negative results in Lewis negative genotype and an increased false positive results in the presence of obstructive jaundice severely limit the universal applicability of serum CA 19-9 levels in pancreatic cancer management.

The clinical utility of serum CA 19-9 in the diagnosis, prognosis and management of pancreatic adenocarcinoma: An evidence based appraisal

BACKGROUND

Serum carbohydrate antigen (CA 19-9) is the most common tumor marker assessed in pancreatic cancer patients; nevertheless few articles have comprehensively evaluated the evidence for its utility in pancreatic cancer management.

METHODS

Literature search was performed using Medline with keywords "pancreatic cancer", "tumor markers", "CA 19-9", "diagnosis", "screening", "prognosis", "resectability" and "recurrence". All English language articles pertaining to the role of CA 19-9 in pancreatic cancer were critically analyzed to determine its utility as a biomarker for pancreatic cancer.

RESULTS

Serum CA 19-9 is the most extensively validated pancreatic cancer biomarker with multiple clinical applications. CA 19-9 serum levels have a sensitivity and specificity of 79-81% and 82-90% respectively for the diagnosis of pancreatic cancer in symptomatic patients; but are not useful as a screening marker because of low positive predictive value (0.5-0.9%). Pre-operative CA 19-9 serum levels provide useful prognostic information as patients with normal levels (<37 U/mL) have a prolonged median survival (32-36 months) compared to patients with elevated levels (>37 U/mL) (12-15 months). A CA 19-9 serum level of <100 U/mL implies likely resectable disease whereas levels >100 U/mL suggest unresectablity or metastatic disease. Normalization or a decrease in post-operative CA 19-9 serum levels by ≥20-50% from baseline following surgical resection or chemotherapy is associated with prolonged survival compared to failure of CA 19-9 serum levels to normalize or an increase. Important limitations to CA 19-9 serum level evaluation in pancreatic cancer include poor sensitivity, false negative results in Lewis negative phenotype (5-10%) and increased false positivity in the presence of obstructive jaundice (10-60%).

CONCLUSIONS

CA 19-9 is the most extensively studied and validated serum biomarker for the diagnosis of pancreatic cancer in symptomatic patients. CA 19-9 serum levels can provide important information with regards to prognosis, overall survival, and response to chemotherapy as well as predict post-operative recurrence. However, non-specific expression in several benign and malignant diseases, false negative results in Lewis negative genotype and an increased false positive results in the presence of obstructive jaundice severely limit the universal applicability of serum CA 19-9 levels in pancreatic cancer management.

The clinical utility of serum CA 19-9 in the diagnosis, prognosis and management of pancreatic adenocarcinoma: An evidence based appraisal

BACKGROUND

Serum carbohydrate antigen (CA 19-9) is the most common tumor marker assessed in pancreatic cancer patients; nevertheless few articles have comprehensively evaluated the evidence for its utility in pancreatic cancer management.

METHODS

Literature search was performed using Medline with keywords "pancreatic cancer", "tumor markers", "CA 19-9", "diagnosis", "screening", "prognosis", "resectability" and "recurrence". All English language articles pertaining to the role of CA 19-9 in pancreatic cancer were critically analyzed to determine its utility as a biomarker for pancreatic cancer.

RESULTS

Serum CA 19-9 is the most extensively validated pancreatic cancer biomarker with multiple clinical applications. CA 19-9 serum levels have a sensitivity and specificity of 79-81% and 82-90% respectively for the diagnosis of pancreatic cancer in symptomatic patients; but are not useful as a screening marker because of low positive predictive value (0.5-0.9%). Pre-operative CA 19-9 serum levels provide useful prognostic information as patients with normal levels (<37 U/mL) have a prolonged median survival (32-36 months) compared to patients with elevated levels (>37 U/mL) (12-15 months). A CA 19-9 serum level of <100 U/mL implies likely resectable disease whereas levels >100 U/mL suggest unresectablity or metastatic disease. Normalization or a decrease in post-operative CA 19-9 serum levels by ≥20-50% from baseline following surgical resection or chemotherapy is associated with prolonged survival compared to failure of CA 19-9 serum levels to normalize or an increase. Important limitations to CA 19-9 serum level evaluation in pancreatic cancer include poor sensitivity, false negative results in Lewis negative phenotype (5-10%) and increased false positivity in the presence of obstructive jaundice (10-60%).

CONCLUSIONS

CA 19-9 is the most extensively studied and validated serum biomarker for the diagnosis of pancreatic cancer in symptomatic patients. CA 19-9 serum levels can provide important information with regards to prognosis, overall survival, and response to chemotherapy as well as predict post-operative recurrence. However, non-specific expression in several benign and malignant diseases, false negative results in Lewis negative genotype and an increased false positive results in the presence of obstructive jaundice severely limit the universal applicability of serum CA 19-9 levels in pancreatic cancer management.

Monitoring of CA19-9 and SPan-1 can facilitate the earlier confirmation of progressing pancreatic cancer during chemotherapy

BACKGROUND

Measurement of objective response to chemotherapy using imaging modalities is sometimes difficult in pancreatic cancer (PC). We aimed to verify whether monitoring of serum tumor markers (TMs), namely carcinoembryonic antigen, CA19-9, DUPAN-2, SPan-1, can facilitate earlier confirmation of treatment failure.

METHODS

Monitoring of serum TMs and computed tomography were performed every 4 weeks until progression of disease in 90 patients with PC undergoing gemcitabine therapy. In Group A (January 2006-October 2007), we analyzed the fluctuation rates of TMs with high pretreatment positive rates, and defined the criteria of progressive disease under TM monitoring (TM-PD). In Group B (November 2007-October 2008), we calculated the time to progression (TTP) under this TM-PD criteria, which was compared with the TTP under the RECIST criteria.

RESULTS

CA19-9 and SPan-1 had the highest pretreatment positive rates: 83% and 90%, respectively. In Group A (CA19-9, n = 38; SPan-1, n = 36), TM-PD criteria were defined as follows: fluctuation rates were ≥25% for a month or ≥10% for 2 consecutive months in CA19-9, and ≥10% for a month in SPan-1. In Group B (CA19-9, n = 18; SPan-1, n = 17), under these criteria, one-month earlier confirmation of treatment failure was feasible in 61% by CA19-9 and 59% by SPan-1. Furthermore, the combination could facilitate this determination in 72% (35/49), significantly better than CA19-9 alone (P = 0.004).

CONCLUSION

Monitoring of serum CA19-9 and SPan-1 is helpful for earlier confirmation of treatment failure during gemcitabine therapy in PC.

Carbohydrate antigen 19-9 is a prognostic and predictive biomarker in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer who receive gemcitabine-containing chemotherapy: a pooled analysis of 6 prospective trials

BACKGROUND

Carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) is a widely used biomarker in pancreatic cancer. There is no consensus on the interpretation of the change in CA19-9 serum levels and its role in the clinical management of patients with pancreatic cancer.

METHODS

Individual patient data from 6 prospective trials evaluating gemcitabine-containing regimens from 3 different institutions were pooled. CA19-9 values were obtained at baseline and after successive cycles of treatment. The objective of this study was to correlate a decline in CA19-9 with outcomes while undergoing treatment.

RESULTS

A total of 212 patients with locally advanced (n = 50) or metastatic (n = 162) adenocarcinoma of the pancreas were included. Median baseline CA19-9 level was 1077 ng/mL (range, 15-492,241 ng/mL). Groups were divided into those levels below (low) or above (high) the median. Median overall survival (mOS) was 8.7 versus 5.2 months (P = .0018) and median time to progression (mTTP) was 5.8 versus 3.7 months (P = .082) in the low versus high groups, respectively. After 2 cycles of chemotherapy, up to a 5% increase versus ≥ 5% increase in CA19-9 levels conferred an improved mOS (10.3 vs 5.1 months, P = .0022) and mTTP (7.5 vs 3.5 months, P = 0.0005).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients who have advanced pancreatic cancer treated with gemcitabine-containing regimens baseline CA19-9 is prognostic for outcome. A decline in CA19-9 after the second cycle of chemotherapy is not predictive of improved mOS or mTTP; thus, CA19-9 decline is not a useful surrogate endpoint in clinical trials. Clinically, a ≥ 5% rise in CA19-9 after 2 cycles of chemotherapy serves as a negative predictive marker.

Second-line therapy for gemcitabine-pretreated advanced or metastatic pancreatic cancer

AIM: To investigate second-line chemotherapy in gemcitabine-pretreated patients with advanced or metastatic pancreatic cancer [(frequency, response, outcome, course of carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA 19-9)].

METHODS: This retrospective study included all patients with advanced or metastatic pancreatic cancer (adenocarcinoma or carcinoma) treated with second-line chemotherapy in our center between 2000 and 2008. All patients received first-line chemotherapy with gemcitabine, and prior surgery or radiotherapy was permitted. We analyzed each chemotherapy protocol for second-line treatment, the number of cycles and the type of combination used. The primary endpoint was overall survival. Secondary endpoints included progression-free survival, response rate, grade 3-4 toxicity, dosage modifications and CA 19-9 course.

RESULTS: A total of eighty patients (38%) underwent a second-line therapy among 206 patients who had initially received first-line treatment with a gemcitabine-based regimen. Median number of cycles was 4 (range: 1-12) and the median duration of treatment was 2.6 mo (range: 0.3-7.4). The overall disease control rate was 40.0%. The median overall survival and progression-free survival from the start of second-line therapy were 5.8 (95% CI: 4.1-6.6) and 3.4 mo (95% CI: 2.4-4.2), respectively. Toxicity was generally acceptable. Median overall survival of patients with a CA 19-9 level declining by more than 20% was 10.3 mo (95% CI: 4.5-11.6) vs 5.2 mo (95% CI: 4.0-6.4) for others (P = 0.008).

CONCLUSION: A large proportion of patients could benefit from second-line therapy, and CA 19-9 allows efficient treatment monitoring both in first and second-line chemotherapy.

CA 19-9 in pancreatic cancer: retrospective evaluation of patients with suspicion of pancreatic cancer

CA 19.9 serum levels were prospectively determined in 573 patients admitted to hospital for suspicion of pancreatic cancer. The final diagnosis was 77 patients with no malignancy, 389 patients with pancreatic cancer, 37 neuroendocrine pancreatic cancer, 28 cholangiocarcinomas, 4 gallbladder cancer, 27 ampullary carcinomas, and 11 periampullary carcinomas. CA 19.9 was determined using a commercial assay from Roche Diagnostics, and 37 U/ml was considered as the upper limit of normality. Abnormal CA 19.9 serum levels were found in 27%, 81.5%, 85.7%, 59.3%, 63.6%, and 18.9% of patients with benign diseases, pancreatic cancer, cholangiocarcinomas, and ampullary, periampullary, or neuroendocrine tumors. Significantly higher concentrations of CA 19.9 were found in patients with than in those without malignancy or with neuroendocrine tumors. CA 19.9 serum levels were higher in pancreatic cancer or cholangiocarcinoma than in other malignancies (p < 0.0001). CA 19.9 serum levels were also correlated with tumor stage, treatment (significantly lower concentrations in resectable tumors), and tumor location (the highest in those located in the body, the lowest in those in the tail or uncinate) and site of metastases (highest in liver metastases). A trend to higher CA 19.9 serum concentrations was found in patients with jaundice, but only with statistical significance in the early stages. Using 50 or 100 U/ml in patients with jaundice, CA 19.9 was useful as an aid in the diagnosis of pancreatic cancer (sensitivity 77.9%, specificity 95.9%) as well as tumor resectability in pancreatic cancer with different cutoffs according to tumor location and bilirubin serum levels with specificities ranging from 90% to 100%. CA 19.9 is the tumor marker of choice in pancreatic adenocarcinomas, with a clear relationship with tumor location, stage, and resectability.

Predictive value of serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 in malignant intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms

BACKGROUND

The goal of the present study was to evaluate the predictive value of serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA 19-9) in the diagnosis of malignant intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of pancreas (IPMNs).

METHODS

Eighty-six patients with pathological diagnosis of IPMNs in Zhongshan Hospital between March 1999 and November 2008 were retrospectively reviewed. Data reflecting clinical characteristics, tumor marker level, and prognosis were collected. The potential predictive value of CA 19-9 was analyzed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

RESULTS

Eighty-six consecutive patients with IPMNs all underwent surgical intervention. A high level of CA 19-9 or carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) was associated with more advanced stage of malignant IPMNs. Carbohydrate antigen 19-9 was significant for judging malignant IPMNs in the binary logistic regression model (p=0.047). The hazard ratio was 1.014, whose 95.0% confidence interval was 0.91-1.028. Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that the serum CA 19-9 level had good predictive value for malignant or invasive IPMNs, postoperative survival, and disease-specific recurrence. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.856, 0.893, 0.815, and 0.857 (p<0.05), respectively. According to the follow-up, mean survival time for groups with CA 19-9>63.60 U/ml was dramatically shorter than that for groups with CA 19-9≤63.60 U/ml (57.38±2.85 versus 29.24±5.82 [months]; p<0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Serum CA 19-9 level has good predictive value for malignant or invasive IPMNs. Patients with CA 19-9 > 63.60 U/ml had poor postoperative prognosis in IPMNs. Preoperative abnormal serum CA 19-9 might be predictive for an aggressive surgical intervention in IPMNs.