The Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS)

Should I stay or should I go? The collective effects of work, family, and mental health on military career intentions among active-duty and national guard and reserve soldiers

This study examined diverse predictors of military career intentions, specifically whether to stay in the military or leave, and differences based on duty status (i.e. active-duty versus National Guard or Reserve [NG/R] Service members). The combined perspectives of the personal choice model of military retention and family systems theory suggest that work factors (i.e. unit support, morale), family factors (i.e. work-family balance, romantic relationship quality), and mental health (i.e. depressive symptoms) simultaneously influence Service members' military career intentions. Understanding how these factors together impact different dimensions of retention, namely, intentions to stay and intentions to leave, and whether they have a similar impact based on duty status are needed next steps. With data from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience (Army STARRS; N = 3,506 Soldiers), path models examined the direct and indirect paths through which these factors contributed to Soldiers' intentions to remain and intentions to leave. Then, a multigroup mediation analysis explored possible model differences based on duty status. Unit support and work-family balance directly and indirectly contributed to intentions to remain and/or leave through romantic relationship quality, depressive symptoms, and morale. Few differences emerged between active-duty and NG/R Soldiers. In sum, work factors, family factors, and depressive symptoms worked together simultaneously to explain Soldiers' military career intentions. Military leadership, at multiple levels, is encouraged to promote supportive work environments and work-family balance. Practitioners may reinforce mental health resources to promote retention.

Attachment Style, Social Support Network, and Lifetime Suicide Ideation and Suicide Attempts Among New Soldiers in the U.S. Army

OBJECTIVE

Attachment style and social support networks (SSN) are associated with suicide ideation (SI) and suicide attempt (SA). How these two factors interact is important to understanding the mechanisms of risk for suicidal behaviors and identifying interventions.

METHOD

Using the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers New Soldier Study (N = 38,507 soldiers), we examined how three attachment styles (preoccupied, fearful, and secure) and SSN (smaller vs larger) were associated with lifetime SI, SA, and SA among soldiers with SI. The interaction of each attachment style by SSN was examined.

RESULTS

All three attachment styles were associated with SI and SA in the total sample (for SA: preoccupied OR = 2.82, fearful OR = 2.84, and secure OR = 0.76). Preoccupied and fearful attachment were associated with SA among suicide ideators. Smaller SSN was associated with a higher risk for all three outcomes (range of ORs = 1.23-1.52). The association of SSN with SI and with SA among suicide ideators was significantly modified by the presence or absence of preoccupied attachment style. Among soldiers without preoccupied attachment, larger SSN was associated with lower risk of SI. Among suicide ideators with preoccupied attachment, a larger SSN was associated with lower risk of SA.

CONCLUSION

This study highlights the need for increased understanding of the role of attachment style and social networks in suicide risk, in particular preoccupied attachment among soldiers with SI. A critical next step is to explore these relationships prospectively to guide intervention development.

Optimism, Sociability, and the Risk of Future Suicide Attempt among U.S. Army Soldiers

INTRODUCTION

Most research on suicide attempts among U.S. service members has been focused on risk factors that occur during service. There is an important gap in our understanding of premilitary factors, such as personality characteristics, that may be associated with future suicide attempt risk during service. Of particular importance is identifying risk factors for the 1/3 of suicide attempters who never receive a mental health diagnosis (MH-Dx)-and therefore are not identified as having a mental health problem in the military healthcare system-prior to their suicide attempt.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Using two components of the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers, we examined the association of personality facets from the Tailored Adaptive Personality Assessment System, a computerized instrument administered prior to entering service, with medically documented suicide attempts during service. A 2010-2016 sample of historical administrative records from U.S. Regular Army enlisted soldiers with complete data on 11 commonly administered Tailored Adaptive Personality Assessment System facets was examined using a series of logistic regression analyses to identify the facets associated with future suicide attempt. Significant facets were then applied to data from a longitudinal cohort study of 11,288 soldiers surveyed upon entering basic combat training and followed via administrative records for their first 48 months of service. This research was approved by the Institutional Review Boards at the collaborating institutions.

RESULTS

Analysis of the historical administrative data (87.0% male, 61.6% White non-Hispanic), found that low Optimism (odds ratio (OR) = 1.2 [95% CI = 1.0-1.4]) and high/low (vs. moderate) Sociability (OR = 1.3 [95%CI = 1.1-1.6]) were associated with suicide attempt after adjusting for other univariable-significant facets and socio-demographic and service-related variables. When examined in the longitudinal survey cohort, low Optimism (OR = 1.7 [95% CI = 1.1-2.4]) and high/low (vs. moderate) Sociability (OR = 1.7 [95% CI = 1.1-2.5]) were still associated with increased odds of documented suicide attempt during service, even after adjusting for each other, socio-demographic and service-related variables, and medically documented MH-Dx. Mental health diagnosis had a significant two-way interaction with Optimism (F = 5.27, p = 0.0236) but not Sociability. Stratified analyses indicated that low Optimism was associated with suicide attempt among soldiers without, but not among those with, a MH-Dx. Interactions of Optimism and Sociability with gender were nonsignificant. In the full model, population attributable risk proportions for Optimism and Sociability were 15.0% and 18.9%, respectively. Optimism and Sociability were differentially associated with suicide attempt risk across time in service.

CONCLUSIONS

Optimism and Sociability, assessed prior to entering U.S. Army service, are consistently associated with future suicide attempt during service, even after adjusting for other important risk factors. While Sociability is equally associated with suicide attempt among those with and without a MH-Dx, Optimism is specifically associated with suicide attempt among soldiers not identified in the mental healthcare system. Risk differences across time in service suggest that Optimism and Sociability interact with stressors and contextual factors in particular developmental and Army career phases.

Uncommon Protein-Coding Variants Associated With Suicide Attempt in a Diverse Sample of U.S. Army Soldiers

BACKGROUND

Suicide is a societal and public health concern of global scale. Identifying genetic risk factors for suicide attempt can characterize underlying biology and enable early interventions to prevent deaths. Recent studies have described common genetic variants for suicide-related behaviors. Here, we advance this search for genetic risk by analyzing the association between suicide attempt and uncommon variation exome-wide in a large, ancestrally diverse sample.

METHODS

We sequenced whole genomes of 13,584 soldiers from the Army STARRS (Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers), including 979 individuals with a history of suicide attempt. Uncommon, nonsilent protein-coding variants were analyzed exome-wide for association with suicide attempt using gene-collapsed and single-variant analyses.

RESULTS

We identified 19 genes with variants enriched in individuals with history of suicide attempt, either through gene-collapsed or single-variant analysis (Bonferroni padjusted < .05). These genes were CIB2, MLF1, HERC1, YWHAE, RCN2, VWA5B1, ATAD3A, NACA, EP400, ZNF585A, LYST, RC3H2, PSD3, STARD9, SGMS1, ACTR6, RGS7BP, DIRAS2, and KRTAP10-1. Most genes had variants across multiple genomic ancestry groups. Seventeen of these genes were expressed in healthy brain tissue, with 9 genes expressed at the highest levels in the brain versus other tissues. Brains from individuals deceased from suicide aberrantly expressed RGS7BP (padjusted = .035) in addition to nominally significant genes including YWHAE and ACTR6, all of which have reported associations with other mental disorders.

CONCLUSIONS

These results advance the molecular characterization of suicide attempt behavior and support the utility of whole-genome sequencing for complementing the findings of genome-wide association studies in suicide research.

Perspectives of suicide loss survivors: Qualitative analysis of data from a psychological autopsy study of U.S. Army soldiers

INTRODUCTION

Suicide loss survivors can provide information not otherwise available about the circumstances preceding a suicide. In this study, we analyzed interview data from suicide loss survivors collected as part of a psychological autopsy study of U.S. Army soldiers.

METHODS

Next-of-kin (NOK) (n = 61) and Army supervisors (SUP) (n = 107) of suicide decedents (n = 135) who had died in the last 2-3 months answered open-ended questions about suicide risk factors, ideas for improving suicide prevention, and the impact of the suicide. Responses were coded using conventional content analysis methods to identify common themes.

RESULTS

Many NOK (30%) and SUP (50%) did not observe any signs of risk preceding the soldier's suicide. The most common idea regarding suicide prevention from SUP was that the suicide was inevitable, whereas NOK were more likely to emphasize the importance of increasing mental health treatment and reducing stigma. Both NOK and SUP reported negative effects of the suicide, but SUP reported some positive effects (e.g., increased unit connectedness).

CONCLUSIONS

Results underscore the challenges of using informants to identify soldiers at high risk of suicide, given many respondents did not observe any warning signs. Findings also highlight attitudinal barriers present in the military that, if targeted, may increase soldiers' help-seeking and willingness to disclose their risk.

Predicting Homelessness Among Transitioning U.S. Army Soldiers

INTRODUCTION

This study develops a practical method to triage Army transitioning service members (TSMs) at highest risk of homelessness to target a preventive intervention.

METHODS

The sample included 4,790 soldiers from the Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers-Longitudinal Study (STARRS-LS) who participated in 1 of 3 Army STARRS 2011-2014 baseline surveys followed by the third wave of the STARRS-LS online panel surveys (2020-2022). Two machine learning models were trained: a Stage-1 model that used administrative predictors and geospatial data available for all TSMs at discharge to identify high-risk TSMs for initial outreach; and a Stage-2 model estimated in the high-risk subsample that used self-reported survey data to help determine highest risk based on additional information collected from high-risk TSMs once they are contacted. The outcome in both models was homelessness within 12 months after leaving active service.

RESULTS

Twelve-month prevalence of post-transition homelessness was 5.0% (SE=0.5). The Stage-1 model identified 30% of high-risk TSMs who accounted for 52% of homelessness. The Stage-2 model identified 10% of all TSMs (i.e., 33% of high-risk TSMs) who accounted for 35% of all homelessness (i.e., 63% of the homeless among high-risk TSMs).

CONCLUSIONS

Machine learning can help target outreach and assessment of TSMs for homeless prevention interventions.

Military Veteran Matriculation in US Physician Associate/Assistant Programs

INTRODUCTION

This study aims to determine whether veterans have differential access to physician associate/assistant (PA) education by examining likelihood of matriculation relative to nonveteran peers. We explore associations between veteran status and likelihood of matriculation for change over time and whether effects differ among active duty versus non-active-duty applicants.

METHODS

Multivariate logistic regression was used to investigate associations between self-identified military status and likelihood of PA program matriculation in five Centralized Applicant Services for Physician Assistants admissions cycles (2012-2013, 2014-2015, 2016-2017, 2018-2019, 2020-2021). Models controlled for age, sex, race/ethnicity, patient care experience hours, total undergraduate grade point average, and number of applications submitted and applied a Bonferroni correction for alpha inflation.

RESULTS

Veteran applicant numbers were small across the study time frame but increased from 2012 (n = 708) to 2020 (n = 978), representing a 38% increase over the lookback period. Despite growth, the proportion of veterans in the matriculant pool has decreased from 4.2% in 2012 to 3.0% in 2020. In unadjusted models, military status was not strongly associated with odds of matriculation. In adjusted models, both veteran and active-duty status were associated with higher odds of matriculation, although this increase was not statistically significant at the 0.005 level for applicants on active-duty.

DISCUSSION

Military veterans and active-duty military personnel have higher likelihood of matriculation into US PA programs relative to nonveteran peers. The proportion of veterans in the matriculant pool has decreased over time. This suggests that while PA programs seems to value previous military experience, further efforts to evaluate and address barriers to military veterans in applying for admissions is needed.

Toward personalized care for insomnia in the US Army: a machine learning model to predict response to cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia

STUDY OBJECTIVES

The standard of care for military personnel with insomnia is cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia (CBT-I). However, only a minority seeking insomnia treatment receive CBT-I, and little reliable guidance exists to identify those most likely to respond. As a step toward personalized care, we present results of a machine learning (ML) model to predict CBT-I response.

METHODS

Administrative data were examined for n = 1,449 nondeployed US Army soldiers treated for insomnia with CBT-I who had moderate-severe baseline Insomnia Severity Index (ISI) scores and completed 1 or more follow-up ISIs 6-12 weeks after baseline. An ensemble ML model was developed in a 70% training sample to predict clinically significant ISI improvement (reduction of at least 2 standard deviations on the baseline ISI distribution). Predictors included a wide range of military administrative and baseline clinical variables. Model accuracy was evaluated in the remaining 30% test sample.

RESULTS

19.8% of patients had clinically significant ISI improvement. Model area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (standard error) was 0.60 (0.03). The 20% of test-sample patients with the highest probabilities of improvement were twice as likely to have clinically significant improvement compared with the remaining 80% (36.5% vs 15.7%; χ21 = 9.2, P = .002). Nearly 85% of prediction accuracy was due to 10 variables, the most important of which were baseline insomnia severity and baseline suicidal ideation.

CONCLUSIONS

Pending replication, the model could be used as part of a patient-centered decision-making process for insomnia treatment. Parallel models will be needed for alternative treatments before such a system is of optimal value.

CITATION

Gabbay FH, Wynn GH, Georg MW, et al. Toward personalized care for insomnia in the US Army: a machine learning model to predict response to cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia. J Clin Sleep Med. 2024;20(6):921-931.

PTSD, Comorbidities, Gender, and Increased Risk of Cardiovascular Disease in a Large Military Cohort

Importance

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a prevalent mental health problem that increases risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). It is not known whether gender or comorbidities modify associations between PTSD and CVD.

Objective

To assess risk of hypertension and atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) associated with PTSD in a predominantly young military population, and determine if gender or PTSD comorbidities modify these associations.

Design setting and participants

Using administrative medical records, this longitudinal, retrospective cohort study assessed relationships of PTSD, gender, comorbidities (metabolic risk factors [MRF], behavioral risk factors [BRF], depression, and sleep disorders) to subsequent hypertension and ASCVD among 863,993 active-duty U.S. Army enlisted soldiers (86.2% male; 93.7%

Main outcomes and measures

ICD-9-CM diagnoses of hypertension, ASCVD (coronary artery disease, myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure), PTSD, MRF (Type 2 diabetes, obesity), BRF (tobacco/alcohol use disorders), depression, and sleep disorders.

Results

PTSD was associated with subsequent hypertension (OR=3.0 [95% CI=2.9-3.1]), and ASCVD (OR=2.7 [95% CI=2.2-3.3]). These associations remained significant but were attenuated after adjusting for comorbidities and sociodemographic/service-related variables (Hypertension: OR=1.9 [95% CI=1.8-2.0]; ASCVD: OR=1.4 [95% CI=1.2-1.8]). For hypertension, gender and each comorbidity were significant explanatory variables in multivariable models, and there were significant PTSD interactions with gender, MRF, depression, and sleep disorders. Stratifying separately by gender and presence of each comorbidity, PTSD-hypertension associations were stronger among men, those without MRF, without depression, and without sleep disorders. Standardized risk estimates indicated that predicted hypertension rates for those with vs. without PTSD were higher for men, and for those with vs. without MRF, depression, and sleep disorders. For ASCVD, comorbidities, but not gender, were independent predictors, and associations between PTSD and ASCVD were not modified by gender or comorbidities.

Conclusions and relevance

PTSD and comorbidities are independent risk factors for hypertension and ASVD in younger individuals, and gender and comorbid conditions modify PTSD relationships with hypertension. These findings suggest that CVD preventive interventions address PTSD and medical and behavioral comorbidities.

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Polygenic risk for suicide attempt is associated with lifetime suicide attempt in US soldiers independent of parental risk

BACKGROUND

Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide. Whereas some studies have suggested that a direct measure of common genetic liability for suicide attempts (SA), captured by a polygenic risk score for SA (SA-PRS), explains risk independent of parental history, further confirmation would be useful. Even more unsettled is the extent to which SA-PRS is associated with lifetime non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI).

METHODS

We used summary statistics from the largest available GWAS study of SA to generate SA-PRS for two non-overlapping cohorts of soldiers of European ancestry. These were tested in multivariable models that included parental major depressive disorder (MDD) and parental SA.

RESULTS

In the first cohort, 417 (6.3 %) of 6573 soldiers reported lifetime SA and 1195 (18.2 %) reported lifetime NSSI. In a multivariable model that included parental history of MDD and parental history of SA, SA-PRS remained significantly associated with lifetime SA [aOR = 1.26, 95%CI:1.13-1.39, p < 0.001] per standardized unit SA-PRS]. In the second cohort, 204 (4.2 %) of 4900 soldiers reported lifetime SA, and 299 (6.1 %) reported lifetime NSSI. In a multivariable model that included parental history of MDD and parental history of SA, SA-PRS remained significantly associated with lifetime SA [aOR = 1.20, 95%CI:1.04-1.38, p = 0.014]. A combined analysis of both cohorts yielded similar results. In neither cohort or in the combined analysis was SA-PRS significantly associated with NSSI.

CONCLUSIONS

PRS for SA conveys information about likelihood of lifetime SA (but not NSSI, demonstrating specificity), independent of self-reported parental history of MDD and parental history of SA.

LIMITATIONS

At present, the magnitude of effects is small and would not be immediately useful for clinical decision-making or risk-stratified prevention initiatives, but this may be expected to improve with further iterations. Also critical will be the extension of these findings to more diverse populations.

Associations between early child adversity and lifetime suicide attempts among gender diverse individuals: A moderated mediation

BACKGROUND

This study examines the effect of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) on lifetime suicide attempts (LSA) across five gender subgroups (i.e., transgender men, transgender women, transgender non-binary, cisgender men and cisgender women).

OBJECTIVE

To examine (1) the prevalence of LSA across gender identity subgroups; (2) whether the association between ACEs and LSA is moderated by gender identity subgroup; (3) depressive symptoms, alcohol use disorder, social support, and social well-being as mechanisms linking ACEs with LSA; and (4) the moderating role of gender identity on the four putative mediators.

PARTICIPANTS AND SETTINGS

We used nationally representative data from a population-based survey of N = 1368 transgender and cisgender individuals collected between 2016 and 2019.

METHODS

Structural equation modeling was used to explore the indirect effect of depressive symptoms on the relation between ACEs and LSA, and the moderating impact of gender identity.

RESULTS

LSA was significantly more prevalent among transgender respondents (cisgender man = 5 %; cisgender woman = 9 %; transgender man = 42 %; transgender woman = 33 %; transgender non-binary = 37 %; p < 0.001). Individuals with more ACEs had a greater risk of engaging in LSA regardless of gender identity; however, moderation results showed that the impact of each additional ACE on LSA was stronger for individuals with transgender identities: the likelihood of engaging in LSA was statistically similar for transgender men with no ACEs and cisgender men with all 8 ACEs. Indirect effects of ACEs on LSA via depressive symptoms were also observed, and the mediating effect was moderated by gender identity.

CONCLUSIONS

By examining the mechanisms linking childhood adversity to LSA, this study demonstrates that not all ACEs impact gender minority subgroups equally.

Prospective association of attachment style with suicide attempts among US Army soldiers

BACKGROUND

Insecure attachment styles are associated with retrospectively reported suicide attempts (SAs). It is not known if attachment styles are prospectively associated with medically documented SAs.

METHODS

A representative sample of US Army soldiers entering service (n = 21 772) was surveyed and followed via administrative records for their first 48 months of service. Attachment style (secure, preoccupied, fearful, dismissing) was assessed at baseline. Administrative medical records identified SAs. Discrete-time survival analysis examined associations of attachment style with future SA during service, adjusting for time in service, socio-demographics, service-related variables, and mental health diagnosis (MH-Dx). We examined whether associations of attachment style with SA differed based on sex and MH-Dx.

RESULTS

In total, 253 respondents attempted suicide. Endorsed attachment styles included secure (46.8%), preoccupied (9.1%), fearful (15.7%), and dismissing (19.2%). Examined separately, insecure attachment styles were associated with increased odds of SA: preoccupied [OR 2.5 (95% CI 1.7-3.4)], fearful [OR 1.6 (95% CI 1.1-2.3)], dismissing [OR 1.8 (95% CI 1.3-2.6)]. Examining attachment styles simultaneously along with other covariates, preoccupied [OR 1.9 (95% CI 1.4-2.7)] and dismissing [OR 1.7 (95% CI 1.2-2.4)] remained significant. The dismissing attachment and MH-Dx interaction was significant. In stratified analyses, dismissing attachment was associated with SA only among soldiers without MH-Dx. Other interactions were non-significant. Soldiers endorsing any insecure attachment style had elevated SA risk across the first 48 months in service, particularly during the first 12 months.

CONCLUSIONS

Insecure attachment styles, particularly preoccupied and dismissing, are associated with increased future SA risk among soldiers. Elevated risk is most substantial during first year of service but persists through the first 48 months. Dismissing attachment may indicate risk specifically among soldiers not identified by the mental healthcare system.

Mental health services for German university students: acceptance of intervention targets and preference for delivery modes

Introduction

Most university students with mental disorders remain untreated. Evaluating the acceptance of intervention targets in mental health treatment, promotion, and prevention, as well as mental health service delivery modes is crucial for reducing potential barriers, increasing healthcare utilization, and efficiently allocating resources in healthcare services.

Aim

The study aimed to evaluate the acceptance of various intervention targets and delivery modes of mental health care services in German first-year university students.

Methods

In total, 1,376 first-year students from two German universities from the 2017-2018 multi-center cross-sectional cohort of the StudiCare project, the German arm of the World Mental Health International College Student Survey initiative, completed a web-based survey assessing their mental health. Mental disorder status was based on self-reported data fulfilling the DSM-IV criteria. We report frequencies of accepted delivery modes [categories: group or in-person therapy with on or off campus services, self-help internet- or mobile-based intervention (IMI) with or without coaching, or a combination of a in-person and IMI (blended)]. In a multinomial logistic regression, we estimate correlates of the preference for in-person vs. IMI vs. a combination of both modes (blended) modalities. Additionally, we report frequencies of intervention targets (disorder specific: e.g., social phobia, depressive mood; study-related: test anxiety, procrastination; general well-being: sleep quality, resilience) their association with mental disorders and sex, and optimal combinations of treatment targets for each mental illness.

Results

German university students' acceptance is high for in-person (71%-76%), moderate for internet- and mobile-based (45%-55%), and low for group delivery modes (31%-36%). In-person treatment (72%) was preferred over IMI (19%) and blended modalities (9%). Having a mental disorder [odds ratio (OR): 1.56], believing that digital treatments are effective (OR: 3.2), and showing no intention to use services (OR: 2.8) were associated with a preference for IMI compared to in-person modes. Students with prior treatment experience preferred in-person modes (OR: 0.46). In general, treatment targets acceptance was higher among female students and students with mental disorders. However, this was not true for targets with the highest (i.e., procrastination) and the lowest (i.e., substance-use disorder) acceptance. If only two intervention targets were offered, a combination of study-related targets (i.e., procrastination, stress, time management) would reach 85%-88% of the students.

Conclusion

In-person services are preferred, yet half of the students consider using IMI, preferably aiming for a combination of at least two study-related intervention targets. Student mental health care services should offer a combination of accepted targets in different delivery modes to maximize service utilization.

Three-Item Dimensions of Anger Reactions Scale

Importance

Problematic anger is prevalent and associated with adjustment difficulties in military populations. To facilitate measurement of problematic anger, a very brief valid measure is needed.

Objective

To reduce the Dimensions of Anger Reactions 5-item (DAR-5) scale to a very brief measure.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional study used survey data collected between 2014 and 2016 in the Australian Transition and Well-Being Research Programme and US Millennium Cohort Study. Participants were service members who were actively serving or had transitioned out of the military (separated). Statistical analyses were performed from September 2021 to June 2023.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The DAR-5 was reduced to the 3 experiential items: frequency, intensity, and duration (the DAR-3). Psychometrics for the DAR-3 and DAR-5 were compared in terms of standardized Cronbach α, positive screening result, mean, and SD. Analyses were stratified by Australian and US military service status cohorts (active duty and separated).

Results

A total of 71 010 participants were included from Australia and the US. Of 10 900 Australian participants (8145 active duty participants [74.7%]; 2755 separated participants [25.3%]), 5893 (55.2%) were aged 40 years or older and 8774 (80.5%) were male; of 60 110 US participants (24 706 active duty participants [41.1%]; 35 404 separated participants [58.9%]), 28 804 (47.9%) were aged 30 to 39 years and 43 475 (72.3%) were male. The DAR-3 demonstrated good internal consistency in the active duty (Australia: mean [SD] score, 4.97 [2.5]; α = 0.90; US: mean [SD] score, 5.04 [2.6]; α = 0.87) and separated (Australia: mean [SD] score, 6.53 [3.4]; α = 0.92; US: mean [SD] score, 6.05 [3.2]; α = 0.91) samples. The cutoff score of 8 or greater on the DAR-3 had optimal sensitivity and specificity across all samples. DAR-3 and DAR-5 were associated with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, aggression, and relationship conflict. While the scales did not significantly differ in their associations with PTSD, depression, and relationship conflict, the magnitude of association for aggression was significantly lower in US samples using the DAR-3 (eg, US active duty sample: DAR-5 OR, 9.96; 95% CI, 9.01-11.00; DAR-3 OR, 8.36; 95% CI, 7.58-9.22).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cross-sectional study of a very brief measure of anger, each item contributed to the overall strength of the measure without losing psychometric strength compared with the DAR-5. The consistency of these findings across military and veteran samples in Australian and US populations demonstrated the psychometric robustness of the DAR-3.

Evidence for the biopsychosocial model of suicide: a review of whole person modeling studies using machine learning

Background

Traditional approaches to modeling suicide-related thoughts and behaviors focus on few data types from often-siloed disciplines. While psychosocial aspects of risk for these phenotypes are frequently studied, there is a lack of research assessing their impact in the context of biological factors, which are important in determining an individual's fulsome risk profile. To directly test this biopsychosocial model of suicide and identify the relative importance of predictive measures when considered together, a transdisciplinary, multivariate approach is needed. Here, we systematically review the emerging literature on large-scale studies using machine learning to integrate measures of psychological, social, and biological factors simultaneously in the study of suicide.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review of studies that used machine learning to model suicide-related outcomes in human populations including at least one predictor from each of biological, psychological, and sociological data domains. Electronic databases MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychINFO, PubMed, and Web of Science were searched for reports published between August 2013 and August 30, 2023. We evaluated populations studied, features emerging most consistently as risk or resilience factors, methods used, and strength of evidence for or against the biopsychosocial model of suicide.

Results

Out of 518 full-text articles screened, we identified a total of 20 studies meeting our inclusion criteria, including eight studies conducted in general population samples and 12 in clinical populations. Common important features identified included depressive and anxious symptoms, comorbid psychiatric disorders, social behaviors, lifestyle factors such as exercise, alcohol intake, smoking exposure, and marital and vocational status, and biological factors such as hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid axis activity markers, sleep-related measures, and selected genetic markers. A minority of studies conducted iterative modeling testing each data type for contribution to model performance, instead of reporting basic measures of relative feature importance.

Conclusion

Studies combining biopsychosocial measures to predict suicide-related phenotypes are beginning to proliferate. This literature provides some early empirical evidence for the biopsychosocial model of suicide, though it is marred by harmonization challenges. For future studies, more specific definitions of suicide-related outcomes, inclusion of a greater breadth of biological data, and more diversity in study populations will be needed.

A practical risk calculator for suicidal behavior among transitioning U.S. Army soldiers: results from the Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers-Longitudinal Study (STARRS-LS)

BACKGROUND

Risk of suicide-related behaviors is elevated among military personnel transitioning to civilian life. An earlier report showed that high-risk U.S. Army soldiers could be identified shortly before this transition with a machine learning model that included predictors from administrative systems, self-report surveys, and geospatial data. Based on this result, a Veterans Affairs and Army initiative was launched to evaluate a suicide-prevention intervention for high-risk transitioning soldiers. To make targeting practical, though, a streamlined model and risk calculator were needed that used only a short series of self-report survey questions.

METHODS

We revised the original model in a sample of n = 8335 observations from the Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers-Longitudinal Study (STARRS-LS) who participated in one of three Army STARRS 2011-2014 baseline surveys while in service and in one or more subsequent panel surveys (LS1: 2016-2018, LS2: 2018-2019) after leaving service. We trained ensemble machine learning models with constrained numbers of item-level survey predictors in a 70% training sample. The outcome was self-reported post-transition suicide attempts (SA). The models were validated in the 30% test sample.

RESULTS

Twelve-month post-transition SA prevalence was 1.0% (s.e. = 0.1). The best constrained model, with only 17 predictors, had a test sample ROC-AUC of 0.85 (s.e. = 0.03). The 10-30% of respondents with the highest predicted risk included 44.9-92.5% of 12-month SAs.

CONCLUSIONS

An accurate SA risk calculator based on a short self-report survey can target transitioning soldiers shortly before leaving service for intervention to prevent post-transition SA.

External Validation and Updating of a Statistical Civilian-Based Suicide Risk Model in US Naval Primary Care

Importance

Suicide remains an ongoing concern in the US military. Statistical models have not been broadly disseminated for US Navy service members.

Objective

To externally validate and update a statistical suicide risk model initially developed in a civilian setting with an emphasis on primary care.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective cohort study used data collected from 2007 through 2017 among active-duty US Navy service members. The external civilian model was applied to every visit at Naval Medical Center Portsmouth (NMCP), its NMCP Naval Branch Health Clinics (NBHCs), and TRICARE Prime Clinics (TPCs) that fall within the NMCP area. The model was retrained and recalibrated using visits to NBHCs and TPCs and updated using Department of Defense (DoD)-specific billing codes and demographic characteristics, including expanded race and ethnicity categories. Domain and temporal analyses were performed with bootstrap validation. Data analysis was performed from September 2020 to December 2022.

Exposure

Visit to US NMCP.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Recorded suicidal behavior on the day of or within 30 days of a visit. Performance was assessed using area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC), area under the precision recall curve (AUPRC), Brier score, and Spiegelhalter z-test statistic.

Results

Of the 260 583 service members, 6529 (2.5%) had a recorded suicidal behavior, 206 412 (79.2%) were male; 104 835 (40.2%) were aged 20 to 24 years; and 9458 (3.6%) were Asian, 56 715 (21.8%) were Black or African American, and 158 277 (60.7%) were White. Applying the civilian-trained model resulted in an AUROC of 0.77 (95% CI, 0.74-0.79) and an AUPRC of 0.004 (95% CI, 0.003-0.005) at NBHCs with poor calibration (Spiegelhalter P < .001). Retraining the algorithm improved AUROC to 0.92 (95% CI, 0.91-0.93) and AUPRC to 0.66 (95% CI, 0.63-0.68). Number needed to screen in the top risk tiers was 366 for the external model and 200 for the retrained model; the lower number indicates better performance. Domain validation showed AUROC of 0.90 (95% CI, 0.90-0.91) and AUPRC of 0.01 (95% CI, 0.01-0.01), and temporal validation showed AUROC of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.72-0.78) and AUPRC of 0.003 (95% CI, 0.003-0.005).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study of active-duty Navy service members, a civilian suicide attempt risk model was externally validated. Retraining and updating with DoD-specific variables improved performance. Domain and temporal validation results were similar to external validation, suggesting that implementing an external model in US Navy primary care clinics may bypass the need for costly internal development and expedite the automation of suicide prevention in these clinics.

Associations of active-duty mental health trajectories with post-military adjustment: Results from the STARRS Longitudinal Study

BACKGROUND

Many servicemembers experience difficulties transitioning from military to civilian life. We examined whether changes in mental health observed during active duty were associated with indices of post-military adjustment.

METHODS

Survey data from the multi-wave Army STARRS Pre/Post Deployment Study (PPDS; conducted 2012-2014) were linked to follow-up data from wave 1 of the STARRS Longitudinal Study (STARRS-LS1; conducted 2016-2018). Empirical Bayes estimates of intercepts and slopes of posttraumatic stress, problematic anger, and depressive symptoms during the PPDS were extracted from mixed-effects growth models and evaluated as predictors of life stress among 1080 participants who had separated or retired from the Army at STARRS-LS1; and of job satisfaction among 586 veterans who were employed at STARRS-LS1.

RESULTS

Higher average levels and larger increases in posttraumatic stress, anger, and depression over the deployment period were each associated with increased stress and (in the case of anger and depression) reduced job satisfaction. Posttraumatic stress and anger slopes were associated with overall stress (b = 5.60, p < 0.01 and b = 15.64, p = 0.04, respectively) and relationship stress (b = 5.50, p = 0.01 and b = 22.86, p = 0.01, respectively) beyond the average levels of those symptoms.

LIMITATIONS

Some transition-related difficulties may have resolved before outcome assessment; some measures were not previously validated.

CONCLUSIONS

Larger increases in posttraumatic stress and anger over a deployment period were associated with increased stress after leaving the Army, even after controlling for average symptom levels during the same period. Monitoring changes in mental health during active duty may help identify personnel who need additional support to facilitate the military-to-civilian transition.

Genetic, environmental, and behavioral correlates of lifetime suicide attempt: Analysis of additive and interactive effects in two cohorts of US Army soldiers

Recently developed measures of genetic liability to suicide attempt may convey unique information regarding an individual's risk of suicidal behavior. We calculated a polygenic risk score for suicide attempt (SA-PRS) for soldiers of European ancestry who participated in the Army STARRS New Soldier Study (NSS; n = 6573) or Pre/Post Deployment Study (PPDS; n = 4900). Multivariable logistic regression models were fit within each sample to estimate the association of SA-PRS with lifetime suicide attempt (LSA), and to examine whether SA-PRS displayed additive or interactive effects with environmental and behavioral risk/protective factors (lifetime trauma burden, childhood maltreatment, negative urgency impulsivity, social network size, perceived mattering, and dispositional optimism). Age, sex, and within-ancestry variation were included as covariates. Observed prevalence of LSA was 6.3% and 4.2% in the NSS and PPDS samples, respectively. In the NSS model, SA-PRS and environmental/behavioral factors displayed strictly additive effects on odds of LSA. Results indicated an estimated 21% increase in odds of LSA per 1 SD increase in SA-PRS [adjusted odds ratio (AOR; 95% CI) = 1.21 (1.09-1.35)]. In PPDS, the effect of SA-PRS varied by reports of optimism [AOR = 0.85 (0.74-0.98) for SA-PRS x optimism effect]. Individuals reporting low and average optimism had 37% and 16% increased odds of LSA per 1 SD increase in SA-PRS, respectively, whereas SA-PRS was not associated with LSA in those reporting high optimism. Overall, results suggested the SA-PRS had predictive value over and above several environmental and behavioral risk factors for LSA. Moreover, elevated SA-PRS may be more concerning in the presence of environmental and behavioral risk factors (e.g., high trauma burden; low optimism). Given the relatively small effect magnitudes, the cost and incremental benefits of utilizing SA-PRS for risk targeting must also be considered in future work.

Prospective associations of emotion reactivity and risk behaviors with suicide attempts in US Army soldiers

BACKGROUND

Emotion reactivity and risk behaviors (ERRB) are transdiagnostic dimensions associated with suicide attempt (SA). ERRB patterns may identify individuals at increased risk of future SAs.

METHODS

A representative sample of US Army soldiers entering basic combat training (n = 21 772) was surveyed and followed via administrative records for their first 48 months of service. Latent profile analysis of baseline survey items assessing ERRB dimensions, including emotion reactivity, impulsivity, and risk-taking behaviors, identified distinct response patterns (classes). SAs were identified using administrative medical records. A discrete-time survival framework was used to examine associations of ERRB classes with subsequent SA during the first 48 months of service, adjusting for time in service, socio-demographic and service-related variables, and mental health diagnosis (MH-Dx). We examined whether associations of ERRB classes with SA differed by year of service and for soldiers with and without a MH-Dx.

RESULTS

Of 21 772 respondents (86.2% male, 61.8% White non-Hispanic), 253 made a SA. Four ERRB classes were identified: 'Indirect Harming' (8.9% of soldiers), 'Impulsive' (19.3%), 'Risk-Taking' (16.3%), and 'Low ERRB' (55.6%). Compared to Low ERRB, Impulsive [OR 1.8 (95% CI 1.3-2.4)] and Risk-Taking [OR 1.6 (95% CI 1.1-2.2)] had higher odds of SA after adjusting for covariates. The ERRB class and MH-Dx interaction was non-significant. Within each class, SA risk varied across service time.

CONCLUSIONS

SA risk within the four identified ERRB classes varied across service time. Impulsive and Risk-Taking soldiers had increased risk of future SA. MH-Dx did not modify these associations, which may therefore help identify risk in those not yet receiving mental healthcare.

Cognitive reappraisal moderates the effect of combat or other exposures on negative behavioral health symptoms

Understanding the individual differences that can buffer the impact of combat and other adverse exposures on deleterious behavioral health outcomes could lead to more targeted prevention and intervention efforts. Cognitive reappraisal, an antecedent-focused emotion regulation strategy, is linked to positive health outcomes such as lower levels of post-traumatic stress disorder, anxiety, and depression. This study examined the moderating effect of individual differences in cognitive reappraisal use on the association between combat exposure and behavioral health outcomes in active-duty U.S. Soldiers (N = 2,290). This study utilized survey data collected approximately 18 months following a combat deployment to Afghanistan in 2014. Results showed that individual differences in cognitive reappraisal use significantly moderated the effect of combat exposure on anxiety and post-traumatic stress symptoms but not depressive symptoms. Specifically, increasing combat exposures predicted a steeper increase in negative behavioral health symptoms for Soldiers reporting lesser (versus greater) cognitive reappraisal use. These findings highlight a role for cognitive reappraisal as a targetable factor that can mitigate the behavioral health consequences of exposure to combat stressors.

Social network size and personality traits independently and prospectively predict distress disorders and suicidal behavior in U.S. Army soldiers

BACKGROUND

Personality traits (e.g. neuroticism) and the social environment predict risk for internalizing disorders and suicidal behavior. Studying these characteristics together and prospectively within a population confronted with high stressor exposure (e.g. U.S. Army soldiers) has not been done, yet could uncover unique and interactive predictive effects that may inform prevention and early intervention efforts.

METHODS

Five broad personality traits and social network size were assessed via self-administered questionnaires among experienced soldiers preparing for deployment (N = 4645) and new soldiers reporting for basic training (N = 6216). Predictive models examined associations of baseline personality and social network variables with recent distress disorders or suicidal behaviors assessed 3- and 9-months post-deployment and approximately 5 years following enlistment.

RESULTS

Among the personality traits, elevated neuroticism was consistently associated with increased mental health risk following deployment. Small social networks were also associated with increased mental health risk following deployment, beyond the variance accounted for by personality. Limited support was found for social network size moderating the association between personality and mental health outcomes. Small social networks also predicted distress disorders and suicidal behavior 5 years following enlistment, whereas unique effects of personality traits on these more distal outcomes were rare.

CONCLUSIONS

Heightened neuroticism and small social networks predict a greater risk for negative mental health sequelae, especially following deployment. Social ties may mitigate adverse impacts of personality traits on psychopathology in some contexts. Early identification and targeted intervention for these distinct, modifiable factors may decrease the risk of distress disorders and suicidal behavior.

Toward personalized care for insomnia in the US Army: development of a machine-learning model to predict response to pharmacotherapy

STUDY OBJECTIVES

Although many military personnel with insomnia are treated with prescription medication, little reliable guidance exists to identify patients most likely to respond. As a first step toward personalized care for insomnia, we present results of a machine-learning model to predict response to insomnia medication.

METHODS

The sample comprised n = 4,738 nondeployed US Army soldiers treated with insomnia medication and followed 6-12 weeks after initiating treatment. All patients had moderate-severe baseline scores on the Insomnia Severity Index (ISI) and completed 1 or more follow-up ISIs 6-12 weeks after baseline. An ensemble machine-learning model was developed in a 70% training sample to predict clinically significant ISI improvement, defined as reduction of at least 2 standard deviations on the baseline ISI distribution. Predictors included a wide range of military administrative and baseline clinical variables. Model accuracy was evaluated in the remaining 30% test sample.

RESULTS

21.3% of patients had clinically significant ISI improvement. Model test sample area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (standard error) was 0.63 (0.02). Among the 30% of patients with the highest predicted probabilities of improvement, 32.5.% had clinically significant symptom improvement vs 16.6% in the 70% sample predicted to be least likely to improve (χ21 = 37.1, P < .001). More than 75% of prediction accuracy was due to 10 variables, the most important of which was baseline insomnia severity.

CONCLUSIONS

Pending replication, the model could be used as part of a patient-centered decision-making process for insomnia treatment, but parallel models will be needed for alternative treatments before such a system is of optimal value.

CITATION

Gabbay FH, Wynn GH, Georg MW, et al. Toward personalized care for insomnia in the US Army: development of a machine-learning model to predict response to pharmacotherapy. J Clin Sleep Med. 2023;19(8):1399-1410.

Prospective Associations of Military Discharge Characterization with Post-active Duty Suicide Attempts and Homelessness: Results from the Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers-Longitudinal Study (STARRS-LS)

INTRODUCTION

Active duty service members transitioning to civilian life can experience significant readjustment stressors. Over the past two decades of the United States' longest sustained conflict, reducing transitioning veterans' suicidal behavior and homelessness became national priorities. However, it remains a significant challenge to identify which service members are at greatest risk of these post-active duty outcomes. Discharge characterization, which indicates the quality of an individual's military service and affects eligibility for benefits and services at the Department of Veterans Affairs, is a potentially important indicator of risk.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This study used data from two self-report panel surveys of the Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers-Longitudinal Study (STARRS-LS) (LS1: 2016-2018, n = 14,508; and LS2: 2018-2019, n = 12,156), which were administered to respondents who previously participated while on active duty in one of the three Army STARRS baseline self-report surveys (2011-2014): the New Soldier Study (NSS), a survey of soldiers entering basic training; All Army Study, a survey of active duty soldiers around the world; and the Pre-Post Deployment Study, a survey of soldiers before and after combat deployment. Human Subjects Committees of the participating institutions approved all recruitment, informed consent, and data collection protocols. We used modified Poisson regression models to prospectively examine the association of discharge characterization (honorable, general, "bad paper" [other than honorable, bad conduct, dishonorable], and uncharacterized [due to separation within the first 180 days of service]) with suicide attempt (subsample of n = 4334 observations) and homelessness (subsample of n = 6837 observations) among those no longer on active duty (i.e., separated or deactivated). Analyses controlled for other suicide attempt and homelessness risk factors using standardized risk indices that were previously developed using the LS survey data.

RESULTS

Twelve-month prevalence rates of self-reported suicide attempts and homelessness in the total pooled LS sample were 1.0% and 2.9%, respectively. While not associated with suicide attempt risk, discharge characterization was associated with homelessness after controlling for other risk factors. Compared to soldiers with an honorable discharge, those with a bad paper discharge had an increased risk of homelessness in the total sample (relative risk [RR] = 4.4 [95% CI = 2.3-8.4]), as well as within subsamples defined by which baseline survey respondents completed (NSS vs. All Army Study/Pre-Post Deployment Study), whether respondents had been separated (vs. deactivated), and how much time had elapsed since respondents were last on active duty.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a robust association between receiving a bad paper discharge and post-separation/deactivation homelessness. Policies that enhance transition assistance and access to mental healthcare for high-risk soldiers may aid in reducing post-separation/deactivation homelessness among those who do not receive an honorable discharge.

Associations of vulnerability to stressful life events with suicide attempts after active duty among high-risk soldiers: results from the Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers-longitudinal study (STARRS-LS)

BACKGROUND

The transition from military service to civilian life is a high-risk period for suicide attempts (SAs). Although stressful life events (SLEs) faced by transitioning soldiers are thought to be implicated, systematic prospective evidence is lacking.

METHODS

Participants in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (STARRS) completed baseline self-report surveys while on active duty in 2011-2014. Two self-report follow-up Longitudinal Surveys (LS1: 2016-2018; LS2: 2018-2019) were subsequently administered to probability subsamples of these baseline respondents. As detailed in a previous report, a SA risk index based on survey, administrative, and geospatial data collected before separation/deactivation identified 15% of the LS respondents who had separated/deactivated as being high-risk for self-reported post-separation/deactivation SAs. The current report presents an investigation of the extent to which self-reported SLEs occurring in the 12 months before each LS survey might have mediated/modified the association between this SA risk index and post-separation/deactivation SAs.

RESULTS

The 15% of respondents identified as high-risk had a significantly elevated prevalence of some post-separation/deactivation SLEs. In addition, the associations of some SLEs with SAs were significantly stronger among predicted high-risk than lower-risk respondents. Demographic rate decomposition showed that 59.5% (s.e. = 10.2) of the overall association between the predicted high-risk index and subsequent SAs was linked to these SLEs.

CONCLUSIONS

It might be possible to prevent a substantial proportion of post-separation/deactivation SAs by providing high-risk soldiers with targeted preventive interventions for exposure/vulnerability to commonly occurring SLEs.

Predictors of suicide attempt within 30 days of first medically documented major depression diagnosis in U.S. army soldiers with no prior suicidal ideation

BACKGROUND

Understanding mental health predictors of imminent suicide attempt (SA; within 30 days) among soldiers with depression and no prior suicide ideation (SI) can inform prevention and treatment. The current study aimed to identify sociodemographic and service-related characteristics and mental disorder predictors associated with imminent SA among U.S. Army soldiers following first documented major depression diagnosis (MDD) with no history of SI.

METHODS

In this case-control study using Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (STARRS) administrative data, we identified 101,046 active-duty Regular Army enlisted soldiers (2010-2016) with medically-documented MDD and no prior SI (MDD/No-SI). We examined risk factors for SA within 30 days of first MDD/No-SI using logistic regression analyses, including socio-demographic/service-related characteristics and psychiatric diagnoses.

RESULTS

The 101,046 soldiers with documented MDD/No-SI were primarily male (78.0%), < 29 years old (63.9%), White (58.1%), high school-educated (74.5%), currently married (62.0%) and < 21 when first entering the Army (56.9%). Among soldiers with MDD/No-SI, 2,600 (2.6%) subsequently attempted suicide, 16.2% (n = 421) within 30 days (rate: 416.6/100,000). Our final multivariable model identified: Soldiers with less than high school education (χ²₃ = 11.21, OR = 1.5[95%CI = 1.2-1.9]); combat medics (χ²₂ = 8.95, OR = 1.5[95%CI = 1.1-2.2]); bipolar disorder (OR = 3.1[95%CI = 1.5-6.3]), traumatic stress (i.e., acute reaction to stress/not PTSD; OR = 2.6[95%CI = 1.4-4.8]), and "other" diagnosis (e.g., unspecified mental disorder: OR = 5.5[95%CI = 3.8-8.0]) diagnosed same day as MDD; and those with alcohol use disorder (OR = 1.4[95%CI = 1.0-1.8]) and somatoform/dissociative disorders (OR = 1.7[95%CI = 1.0-2.8]) diagnosed before MDD were more likely to attempt suicide within 30 days. Currently married soldiers (χ²₂ = 6.68, OR = 0.7[95%CI = 0.6-0.9]), those in service 10 + years (χ²₃ = 10.06, OR = 0.4[95%CI = 0.2-0.7]), and a sleep disorder diagnosed same day as MDD (OR = 0.3[95%CI = 0.1-0.9]) were less likely.

CONCLUSIONS

SA risk within 30 days following first MDD is more likely among soldiers with less education, combat medics, and bipolar disorder, traumatic stress, and "other" disorder the same day as MDD, and alcohol use disorder and somatoform/dissociative disorders before MDD. These factors identify imminent SA risk and can be indicators for early intervention.

Development and Validation of a Machine Learning Prediction Model of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder After Military Deployment

Importance

Military deployment involves significant risk for life-threatening experiences that can lead to posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Accurate predeployment prediction of PTSD risk may facilitate the development of targeted intervention strategies to enhance resilience.

Objective

To develop and validate a machine learning (ML) model to predict postdeployment PTSD.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This diagnostic/prognostic study included 4771 soldiers from 3 US Army brigade combat teams who completed assessments between January 9, 2012, and May 1, 2014. Predeployment assessments occurred 1 to 2 months before deployment to Afghanistan, and follow-up assessments occurred approximately 3 and 9 months post deployment. Machine learning models to predict postdeployment PTSD were developed in the first 2 recruited cohorts using as many as 801 predeployment predictors from comprehensive self-report assessments. In the development phase, cross-validated performance metrics and predictor parsimony were considered to select an optimal model. Next, the selected model's performance was evaluated with area under the receiver operating characteristics curve and expected calibration error in a temporally and geographically distinct cohort. Data analyses were performed from August 1 to November 30, 2022.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Posttraumatic stress disorder diagnosis was assessed by clinically calibrated self-report measures. Participants were weighted in all analyses to address potential biases related to cohort selection and follow-up nonresponse.

Results

This study included 4771 participants (mean [SD] age, 26.9 [6.2] years), 4440 (94.7%) of whom were men. In terms of race and ethnicity, 144 participants (2.8%) identified as American Indian or Alaska Native, 242 (4.8%) as Asian, 556 (13.3%) as Black or African American, 885 (18.3%) as Hispanic, 106 (2.1%) as Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander, 3474 (72.2%) as White, and 430 (8.9%) as other or unknown race or ethnicity; participants could identify as of more than 1 race or ethnicity. A total of 746 participants (15.4%) met PTSD criteria post deployment. In the development phase, models had comparable performance (log loss range, 0.372-0.375; area under the curve range, 0.75-0.76). A gradient-boosting machine with 58 core predictors was selected over an elastic net with 196 predictors and a stacked ensemble of ML models with 801 predictors. In the independent test cohort, the gradient-boosting machine had an area under the curve of 0.74 (95% CI, 0.71-0.77) and low expected calibration error of 0.032 (95% CI, 0.020-0.046). Approximately one-third of participants with the highest risk accounted for 62.4% (95% CI, 56.5%-67.9%) of the PTSD cases. Core predictors cut across 17 distinct domains: stressful experiences, social network, substance use, childhood or adolescence, unit experiences, health, injuries, irritability or anger, personality, emotional problems, resilience, treatment, anxiety, attention or concentration, family history, mood, and religion.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this diagnostic/prognostic study of US Army soldiers, an ML model was developed to predict postdeployment PTSD risk with self-reported information collected before deployment. The optimal model showed good performance in a temporally and geographically distinct validation sample. These results indicate that predeployment stratification of PTSD risk is feasible and may facilitate the development of targeted prevention and early intervention strategies.

Effects of prior deployments and perceived resilience on anger trajectories of combat-deployed soldiers

BACKGROUND

Problematic anger is frequently reported by soldiers who have deployed to combat zones. However, evidence is lacking with respect to how anger changes over a deployment cycle, and which factors prospectively influence change in anger among combat-deployed soldiers.

METHODS

Reports of problematic anger were obtained from 7298 US Army soldiers who deployed to Afghanistan in 2012. A series of mixed-effects growth models estimated linear trajectories of anger over a period of 1-2 months before deployment to 9 months post-deployment, and evaluated the effects of pre-deployment factors (prior deployments and perceived resilience) on average levels and growth of problematic anger.

RESULTS

A model with random intercepts and slopes provided the best fit, indicating heterogeneity in soldiers' levels and trajectories of anger. First-time deployers reported the lowest anger overall, but the most growth in anger over time. Soldiers with multiple prior deployments displayed the highest anger overall, which remained relatively stable over time. Higher pre-deployment resilience was associated with lower reports of anger, but its protective effect diminished over time. First- and second-time deployers reporting low resilience displayed different anger trajectories (stable v. decreasing, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Change in anger from pre- to post-deployment varies based on pre-deployment factors. The observed differences in anger trajectories suggest that efforts to detect and reduce problematic anger should be tailored for first-time v. repeat deployers. Ongoing screening is needed even for soldiers reporting high resilience before deployment, as the protective effect of pre-deployment resilience on anger erodes over time.

Associations of polygenic risk scores with posttraumatic stress symptom trajectories following combat deployment

BACKGROUND

Identification of genetic risk factors may inform the prevention and treatment of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). This study evaluates the associations of polygenic risk scores (PRS) with patterns of posttraumatic stress symptoms following combat deployment.

METHOD

US Army soldiers of European ancestry (n = 4900) provided genomic data and ratings of posttraumatic stress symptoms before and after deployment to Afghanistan in 2012. Latent growth mixture modeling was used to model posttraumatic stress symptom trajectories among participants who provided post-deployment data (n = 4353). Multinomial logistic regression models tested independent associations between trajectory membership and PRS for PTSD, major depressive disorder (MDD), schizophrenia, neuroticism, alcohol use disorder, and suicide attempt, controlling for age, sex, ancestry, and exposure to potentially traumatic events, and weighted to account for uncertainty in trajectory classification and missing data.

RESULTS

Participants were classified into low-severity (77.2%), increasing-severity (10.5%), decreasing-severity (8.0%), and high-severity (4.3%) posttraumatic stress symptom trajectories. Standardized PTSD-PRS and MDD-PRS were associated with greater odds of membership in the high-severity v. low-severity trajectory [adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals, 1.23 (1.06-1.43) and 1.18 (1.02-1.37), respectively] and the increasing-severity v. low-severity trajectory [1.12 (1.01-1.25) and 1.16 (1.04-1.28), respectively]. Additionally, MDD-PRS was associated with greater odds of membership in the decreasing-severity v. low-severity trajectory [1.16 (1.03-1.31)]. No other associations were statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher polygenic risk for PTSD or MDD is associated with more severe posttraumatic stress symptom trajectories following combat deployment. PRS may help stratify at-risk individuals, enabling more precise targeting of treatment and prevention programs.

Prospective Association of Unmet Mental Health Treatment Needs With Suicidal Behavior Among Combat-Deployed Soldiers

OBJECTIVE

Military personnel frequently report discontinuing or not pursuing psychiatric treatment despite perceiving a need for services. This study aimed to examine how unmet need for treatment or support among U.S. Army soldiers relates to future suicidal ideation (SI) or suicide attempt (SA).

METHODS

Mental health treatment need and help seeking in the past 12 months were evaluated for soldiers (N=4,645) who subsequently deployed to Afghanistan. Weighted logistic regression models were used to examine the prospective association of predeployment treatment needs with SI and SA during and after deployment, with adjustment for potential confounders.

RESULTS

Compared with soldiers without predeployment treatment needs, those who reported not seeking help despite needing it had increased risk for SI during deployment (adjusted OR [AOR]=1.73), past-30-day SI at 2-3 months postdeployment (AOR=2.08), past-30-day SI at 8-9 months postdeployment (AOR=2.01), and SA through 8-9 months postdeployment (AOR=3.65). Soldiers who sought help and stopped treatment without improvement had elevated SI risk at 2-3 months postdeployment (AOR=2.35). Those who sought help and stopped after improving did not have increased SI risk during or 2-3 months after deployment but had elevated risks for SI (AOR=1.71) and SA (AOR=3.43) by 8-9 months postdeployment. Risks for all suicidality outcomes were also elevated among soldiers who reported receiving ongoing treatment before deployment.

CONCLUSIONS

Unmet or ongoing needs for mental health treatment or support before deployment are associated with increased risk for suicidal behavior during and after deployment. Detecting and addressing treatment needs among soldiers before deployment may help prevent suicidality during deployment and reintegration periods.

Familial and Bullying Victimisation: The Impact of Early Adversity Within the Home and Peer Settings on Late Adolescence and Adult Psychopathology

BACKGROUND

Awareness of adverse childhood experiences and their impact on adult psychopathology primarily focuses on adversities within the home. There is limited insight into the impact of adversities across peer environments.

OBJECTIVE

This study investigates 19 items related to adverse experiences across the home, school and peer environments and their relationship to 12-month and lifetime psychopathology.

DATA

Secondary analysis of the Ulster University Student Well-being Study. The dataset included completed responses across all selected variables for 729 participants.

METHOD AND RESULTS

Latent profile analysis identified a low adversity profile, bullying adversity profile and higher prevalence adversity profile. Regression analysis of the three profiles and demographics variables indicated their impact on adult psychopathology lifetime and 12-month prevalence rates.

CONCLUSION

Schools and HE institutions should acknowledge the impact of childhood adversities. In doing so, it is important to consider the deeper impact of bullying due to its links with psychopathology across the lifespan. Educational institutions should take appropriate steps to mitigate continued exposure as students' progress through the education system.

The effect of childhood adversities on the persistence of suicidal ideation and plans among college students: A longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Exposure to childhood adversities (CAs) is known to be associated with the onset of suicidal ideation and plans. However, little is known regarding the contribution of CAs to their persistence.

AIMS

The study aims to examine the type, number and frequency of CA exposure on the persistence of suicidal ideation and plans at one-year.

METHOD

Data were drawn from the French portion of the World Mental Health International College Student survey. At baseline (n = 2661, response rate = 7,58 %), exposure to 12 types of CAs prior to age 18, lifetime mental disorders, lifetime and 12-month suicidal ideation and plans were assessed. At one-year follow-up (n = 1221), 12-month mental disorders, suicidal ideation and plans were assessed. Among those with a prior history of suicidal ideation, logistic regressions were performed to examine the role of CAs on the persistence of ideation and plans at one-year.

RESULTS

At baseline, frequency and number of CAs were associated with 12-month suicidal ideation and plans. Among lifetime ideators, 49.6 % reported 12-month suicidal ideation at follow-up. Physical abuse was associated with an increased risk of suicidal ideation and plan persistence at one year in univariate analyses. However, CAs were not associated with the persistence of suicidal ideation and plans at one-year in multivariate analyses.

LIMITATIONS

Retrospective report of CA exposure, and low baseline response rate.

CONCLUSIONS

Using a fine-grained operationalization of CA exposure, CAs were not involved in the persistence of suicidal ideation or plans, their deleterious effect more likely to occur early in the course of psychopathology.

The contribution of childhood adversities to the persistence of severe role impairment among college students: a follow-up study

PURPOSE

While the association between childhood adversities (CAs) and negative mental health outcomes is robustly supported throughout the epidemiological literature, little is known about their contribution to the persistence of role impairment. The present study aims to investigate the association of three facets of CAs with the persistence of severe role impairment among college students using a follow-up design.

METHODS

Data were drawn from the French portion of the World Mental Health International College Student Initiative. Students who completed both the baseline and 1-year follow-up surveys were included (n = 1,188). Exposure to 12 types of CAs before the age of 18 was assessed at baseline, and 12-month role impairment and 12-month mental disorders were assessed at baseline and follow-up. Logistic regressions estimated associations by jointly using types, number of types, and cumulative frequency of exposure to CAs as predictors.

RESULTS

At baseline, 27.6% of students reported any severe role impairment. Among them, 47.5% reported the persistence of any impairment at one year. In models adjusted for 12-month mental disorders, only the frequency of CAs was associated with the persistence of impairment, namely college-related and other work impairment (aOR = 1.17, 95% CI [1.01, 1.35]).

CONCLUSION

Role impairment is prevalent among college students, and studies are needed to better understand its persistence. Beyond the primary prevention of early stressors, screening for and treating mental health problems during college may help reduce the impact of CAs on the persistence of role impairment.

The Heterogeneity of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder in DSM-5

This diagnostic study reports patterns of DSM-5 posttraumatic stress disorder diagnostic presentations from multiple cohorts.

Recent Stressful Experiences and Suicide Risk: Implications for Suicide Prevention and Intervention in U.S. Army Soldiers

Objectives

To identify the extent to which the presence of recent stressful events are risk factors for suicide among active-duty soldiers as reported by informants.

Methods

Next-of-kin (NOK) and supervisors (SUP) of active duty soldiers (n = 135) who died by suicide and two groups of living controls: propensity-matched (n = 128) and soldiers who reported suicidal ideation in the past year, but did not die (SI) (n = 108) provided data via structured interviews from the Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS). Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to create a risk score for suicide.

Results

The odds of suicide increased significantly for soldiers experiencing relationship problems, military punishment, and perceived failure or humiliation in the month prior to death. Suicide risk models with these risk factors predicted suicide death among those who reported SI in the past year (OR = 5.9, [95% CI = 1.5, 24.0] χ 2 = 6.24, p = 0.0125, AUC, 0.73 (0.7, 0.8) NOK) and (OR = 8.6, [95% CI = 1.4, 51.5] χ 2 = 5.49, p = 0.0191, AUC, 0.78 (0.7, 0.8); SUP) suggesting the combination of these recent stressors may contribute to the transition from ideation to action.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest for the first time recent stressors distinguished suicide ideating controls from suicide decedents in the month prior to death as reported by informants. Implications for preventive intervention efforts for clinicians, supervisors and family members in identifying the transition from ideation to action are discussed.

Exposure to Bullying or Hazing During Deployment and Mental Health Outcomes Among US Army Soldiers

IMPORTANCE

Workplace bullying is associated with mental disorders and suicidality in civilians, but few studies have examined associations of bullying with these outcomes among military personnel.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate associations of being bullied or hazed during deployment with major depressive disorder (MDD), intermittent explosive disorder, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), suicidal ideation, and substance use disorder (SUD).

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study used data from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) New Soldier Study (NSS; April 1, 2011, to November 30, 2012) and wave 1 of the STARRS Longitudinal Study (STARRS-LS1; September 1, 2016, to April 30, 2018). A computerized survey administered at 3 US Army installations (NSS) and a web/telephone survey (STARRS-LS1) were used to collect data. Data were analyzed from October 11, 2021, to October 28, 2022. The STARRS-LS1 recruited a probability sample of active-duty soldiers and veterans who had participated in Army STARRS baseline surveys while on active duty (weighted response rate, 35.6%). Respondents whose baseline was the NSS and who had deployed to a combat theater at least once were eligible for this study.

EXPOSURES

Being bullied or hazed during a combat deployment.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcomes were MDD, intermittent explosive disorder, PTSD, and suicidal ideation in the 12 months before STARRS-LS1 and SUD in the 30 days before STARRS-LS1, assessed with items from the Composite International Diagnostic Interview Screening Scales, PTSD Checklist for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition, and Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale. Logistic regression was used to estimate associations of bullying or hazing exposure with the outcomes.

RESULTS

The 1463 participants were predominantly male (weighted percentage [SE], 90.4% [0.9%]) and had a mean (SE) age of 21.1 (0.1) years at baseline. At STARRS-LS1, 188 respondents (weighted percentage [SE], 12.2% [1.1%]) reported bullying or hazing during deployment. Weighted outcome prevalences were 18.7% (1.3%) for MDD, 5.2% (0.9%) for intermittent explosive disorder, 21.8% (1.5%) for PTSD, 14.2% (1.2%) for suicidal ideation, and 8.7% (1.0%) for SUD. In models that adjusted for baseline sociodemographic and clinical characteristics and other potential traumas, exposure to bullying or hazing was significantly associated with MDD (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 2.92; 95% CI, 1.74-4.88), intermittent explosive disorder (aOR, 2.59; 95% CI, 1.20-5.59), PTSD (aOR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.23-2.83), suicidal ideation (aOR, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.17-3.13), and SUD (aOR, 2.06; 95% CI, 1.15-3.70).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cohort study of combat-deployed soldiers, reports of being bullied or hazed during deployment were associated with mental disorders and suicidal thoughts. Recognition of these associations may inform efforts to prevent and address mental health problems among service members.

PECULIARITIES OF FORMATION OF CADETS' PSYCHOLOGICAL RESILIENCE AND PHYSICAL READINESS FOR COMBAT STRESS

OBJECTIVE

The aim: To investigate the impact of special physical training sessions on the formation of cadets' psychological resilience and physical readiness for the stress factors of future professional and combat activities.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Materials and methods: The research involved 96 cadets (men) in the 2nd training year of S. P. Koroliov Zhytomyr Military Institute (Ukraine) aged 18-20 years, who were divided into two groups: the experimental (E, n = 47) and the control (C, n = 49). The cadets of the E group studied according to the authors' program, and the C group cadets - according to the existing program. Cadets' psychological resilience was studied using psycho-diagnostic methods aimed at assessing their volitional qualities. Cadets' physical fitness was assessed by the tests of general and special physical training.

RESULTS

Results: It was found that the level of general physical training of the E and the C group cadets was significantly the same (p > 0.05) at the end of the research but in terms of special physical training and psychological readiness, the E group cadets had all indicators significantly (p < 0.05-0.001) better than those of the C group.

CONCLUSION

Conclusions: It has been proved that the special physical training sessions conducted according to the authors' program were more effective than the existing program in forming cadets' physical readiness and psychological resilience for stress factors of future professional and combat activities.

Childhood Experiences and Mental Health of Sexual Minority Adults: Examining Three Models

Three models of recalled childhood gender nonconformity (GNC) and maltreatment are proposed to explain disparities in current psychological distress and lifetime suicidality among sexual minority individuals, using a United States probability sample of cisgender lesbian/gay (n = 701), bisexual (n = 606), and other (e.g., queer, n = 182) adults. Indirect effects indicated that lesbian/gay individuals were more likely than bisexual individuals to experience maltreatment and suicidal ideation as childhood GNC increased. Other indirect effects found that bisexual individuals reported more psychological distress and greater likelihood of lifetime suicidal ideation and attempts than lesbian/gay individuals as maltreatment increased. The direct effects of sexual orientation were stronger than the indirect effects via maltreatment or GNC, with bisexual individuals reporting more maltreatment, distress, and suicidality than lesbian/gay individuals. Significant findings for individuals with other identities were similar to those of bisexual individuals. Adjusted findings were comparable for women and men. The findings indicated that sexual minority individuals reported experiences consistent with sexual minority stress during early developmental periods, before being aware of their sexual orientation. It is necessary to understand the early lived experiences of sexual minority individuals, differences between lesbian/gay and bisexual individuals in those experiences, and their implications for adaptation.

Trauma type as a risk factor for insomnia in a military population

BACKGROUND

This study evaluated whether lifetime traumatic stress compared to deployment-related traumatic stress differentially affected the likelihood of insomnia in military personnel.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (unweighted N = 21,499; weighted N = 670,335; 18-61 years; 13.5% Female). DSM-5 criteria were applied to the Brief Insomnia Questionnaire to determine past month insomnia diagnostic status. A lifetime stress survey was used to assess traumatic stress encountered outside of the military, and a deployment-related stress survey assessed for various types of deployment-related traumatic stress.

RESULTS

Adjusting for sex and psychiatric disorders, lifetime traumatic stress increased the prevalence for insomnia among those who endorsed combat death of close friend or relative, 1.021 (95% CI, 1.02-1.02), followed by those who reported other experiences that put them at risk of death or serious injury, 1.013 (95% CI, 1.01-1.01), whereas deployment-related traumatic stress showed that the prevalence for insomnia was highest for those who reported being sexually assaulted or raped, 1.059 (95% CI, 1.04-1.08), followed by those who endorsed being hazed or bullied by one or more members of their unit 1.042 (95% CI, 1.04-1.05).

LIMITATIONS

The cross-sectional nature of the assessment limits causal inferences and there was no clinician determined diagnosis for insomnia.

CONCLUSION

Findings suggest that traumas over both one's lifetime and during deployment are associated with a higher prevalence for insomnia among Army soldiers. Results highlight the importance of considering both lifetime and deployment traumas into mental health assessment and treatment for active-duty soldiers.

Predicting Homelessness Among U.S. Army Soldiers No Longer on Active Duty

INTRODUCTION

The ability to predict and prevent homelessness has been an elusive goal. The purpose of this study was to develop a prediction model that identified U.S. Army soldiers at high risk of becoming homeless after transitioning to civilian life based on information available before the time of this transition.

METHODS

The prospective cohort study consisted of observations from 16,589 soldiers who were separated or deactivated from service and who had previously participated in 1 of 3 baseline surveys of the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers in 2011-2014. A machine learning model was developed in a 70% training sample and evaluated in the remaining 30% test sample to predict self-reported homelessness in 1 of 2 Longitudinal Study surveys administered in 2016-2018 and 2018-2019. Predictors included survey, administrative, and geospatial variables available before separation/deactivation. Analysis was conducted in November 2020-May 2021.

RESULTS

The 12-month prevalence of homelessness was 2.9% (SE=0.2%) in the total Longitudinal Study sample. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the test sample was 0.78 (SE=0.02) for homelessness. The 4 highest ventiles (top 20%) of predicted risk included 61% of respondents with homelessness. Self-reported lifetime histories of depression, trauma of having a loved one murdered, and post-traumatic stress disorder were the 3 strongest predictors of homelessness.

CONCLUSIONS

A prediction model for homelessness can accurately target soldiers for preventive intervention before transition to civilian life.

A question of time? Deployments, dwell time, and work-life balance for military personnel in Scandinavia

In recent years, interest in the different ways in which military employment affects individuals' work-life balance (WLB) has grown. At the same time, research on military organizations and personnel has increasingly included time-related factors such as deploy-to-dwell (D2D) ratios to help explain adverse health effects of overseas deployments. The aim of this article is to explore connections between organizational systems for regulating deployment frequency and dwell (or respite) time with a particular focus on potential consequences for work-life balance. We focus on personal and organizational factors that shape the nature and outcome of work-life balance, including stress, mental health problems, job satisfaction, and turnover intentions. To explore these links, we first provide an overview of research on the impact of deploy-to-dwell ratios on mental health and social relations. We then turn to the regulation and organization of deployment and dwell time in Scandinavia. Here, the ambition is to identify potential sources of work-life conflict and associated effects for deployed personnel. The results provide a basis for further research into time-related effects of military deployments.

The Appalachia Mind Health Initiative (AMHI): a pragmatic randomized clinical trial of adjunctive internet-based cognitive behavior therapy for treating major depressive disorder among primary care patients

BACKGROUND

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a leading cause of disease morbidity. Combined treatment with antidepressant medication (ADM) plus psychotherapy yields a much higher MDD remission rate than ADM only. But 77% of US MDD patients are nonetheless treated with ADM only despite strong patient preferences for psychotherapy. This mismatch is due at least in part to a combination of cost considerations and limited availability of psychotherapists, although stigma and reluctance of PCPs to refer patients for psychotherapy are also involved. Internet-based cognitive behaviorial therapy (i-CBT) addresses all of these problems.

METHODS

Enrolled patients (n = 3360) will be those who are beginning ADM-only treatment of MDD in primary care facilities throughout West Virginia, one of the poorest and most rural states in the country. Participating treatment providers and study staff at West Virginia University School of Medicine (WVU) will recruit patients and, after obtaining informed consent, administer a baseline self-report questionnaire (SRQ) and then randomize patients to 1 of 3 treatment arms with equal allocation: ADM only, ADM + self-guided i-CBT, and ADM + guided i-CBT. Follow-up SRQs will be administered 2, 4, 8, 13, 16, 26, 39, and 52 weeks after randomization. The trial has two primary objectives: to evaluate aggregate comparative treatment effects across the 3 arms and to estimate heterogeneity of treatment effects (HTE). The primary outcome will be episode remission based on a modified version of the patient-centered Remission from Depression Questionnaire (RDQ). The sample was powered to detect predictors of HTE that would increase the proportional remission rate by 20% by optimally assigning individuals as opposed to randomly assigning them into three treatment groups of equal size. Aggregate comparative treatment effects will be estimated using intent-to-treat analysis methods. Cumulative inverse probability weights will be used to deal with loss to follow-up. A wide range of self-report predictors of MDD heterogeneity of treatment effects based on previous studies will be included in the baseline SRQ. A state-of-the-art ensemble machine learning method will be used to estimate HTE.

DISCUSSION

The study is innovative in using a rich baseline assessment and in having a sample large enough to carry out a well-powered analysis of heterogeneity of treatment effects. We anticipate finding that self-guided and guided i-CBT will both improve outcomes compared to ADM only. We also anticipate finding that the comparative advantages of adding i-CBT to ADM will vary significantly across patients. We hope to develop a stable individualized treatment rule that will allow patients and treatment providers to improve aggregate treatment outcomes by deciding collaboratively when ADM treatment should be augmented with i-CBT.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04120285 . Registered on October 19, 2019.

Association of Premilitary Mental Health With Suicide Attempts During US Army Service

IMPORTANCE

Approximately one-third of US soldiers who attempt suicide have not received a mental health diagnosis (MH-Dx) before their suicide attempt (SA), yet little is known about risk factors for SA in those with no MH-Dx.

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether premilitary mental health is associated with medically documented SA among US Army soldiers who do not receive an MH-Dx before their SA.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study used data from a representative survey of soldiers in the US Army entering basic combat training from April 1, 2011, to November 30, 2012, who were followed up via administrative records for the first 48 months of service. Analyses were conducted from April 5, 2021, to January 21, 2022. Regular Army enlisted soldiers (n = 21 772) recruited from 3 US Army installations during the first week of service who agreed to have their administrative records linked to their survey responses were included.

EXPOSURES

Preenlistment lifetime history of mental disorder, suicide ideation, SA, and nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI) as reported during the baseline survey. Service-acquired MH-Dx and sociodemographic and service-related variables were identified using administrative records.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Documented SAs were identified using administrative medical records. Using a discrete-time survival framework, linear splines examined the pattern of SA risk over the first 48 months of service. Logistic regression analysis examined associations of lifetime baseline survey variables with subsequent, medically documented SA among soldiers who did vs did not receive an MH-Dx during service. Models were adjusted for time in service and sociodemographic and service-related variables.

RESULTS

Of the 21 722 respondents (86.2% male, 20.4% Black, 61.8% White non-Hispanic), 253 made an SA in the first 48 months of service (male [75.4%]; Black [22.7%], White non-Hispanic [59.9%], or other race or ethnicity [17.4%]). Risk of SA peaked toward the end of the first year of service for both those who did and did not receive an MH-Dx during service. Of the 42.3% of individuals reporting at least 1 of the 4 baseline risk factors, 50.2% received an administrative MH-Dx during service vs 41.5% of those with none, and 1.6% had a documented SA vs 1.0% of those with none. Among individuals with no MH-Dx, medically documented SAs were associated with suicide ideation (odds ratio [OR], 2.2; 95% CI, 1.1-4.4), SA (OR, 11.3; 95% CI, 4.3-29.2), and NSSI (OR, 3.0; 95% CI, 1.3-6.8). For those who received an MH-Dx, medically documented SAs were associated with mental disorder (OR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.0-1.9), SA (OR, 3.4; 95% CI, 2.1-5.6), and NSSI (OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1-2.8). Interactions indicated the only explanatory variable that differed based on history of MH-Dx was preenlistment SA (χ21 = 4.7; P = .03), which had a larger OR among soldiers with no MH-Dx than among those with an MH-Dx.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this study, the period of greatest SA risk and baseline risk factors for SA were similar in soldiers with and without an MH-Dx. This finding suggests that knowledge of the time course and preenlistment mental health factors can equally aid in identifying SA risk in soldiers who do and do not receive an MH-Dx.

Association of emotion reactivity and distress intolerance with suicide attempts in U.S. Army soldiers

INTRODUCTION

Emotion reactivity (ER) and distress intolerance (DI) may be associated with increased suicide attempt (SA) risk among U.S. Army soldiers.

METHOD

In this case-control study, 74 soldiers recently hospitalized for SA (cases) were compared with 133 control soldiers from the same Army installations selected based on either propensity score matching (n = 103) or reported 12-month suicide ideation (SI) (n = 30). Controls were weighted to represent the total Army population at the study sites and the subpopulation of 12-month ideators. Participants completed questionnaires assessing ER, DI, and other psychosocial variables. Logistic regression analyses examined whether ER and DI differentiated SA cases from the general population and from 12-month ideators before and after controlling for additional important risk factors (sociodemographic characteristics, stressors, mental disorders).

RESULTS

In univariate analyses, ER differentiated SA cases from both the general population (OR = 2.5[95%CI = 1.7-3.6]) and soldiers with 12-month SI (OR = 2.5[95%CI = 1.3-4.6]). DI also differentiated cases from the general population (OR = 2.9[95%CI = 2.0-4.1]) and 12-month ideators (OR = 1.9[95%CI = 1.1-3.5]). These associations persisted after controlling for sociodemographic variables, stressors, and mental disorders.

CONCLUSION

Findings provide evidence that higher ER and DI are associated with increased risk of SA among soldiers, even after adjusting for known risk factors. Prospective research with larger samples is needed.

Associations between courses of posttraumatic stress disorder and physical health conditions among Canadian military personnel

BACKGROUND

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and physical health conditions commonly co-occur and are both prevalent among military personnel. This study examined how courses of PTSD (no PTSD, remitted, new onset, persistent/recurrent) are associated with physical health conditions, among a population-based sample of Canadian military personnel.

METHOD

We analyzed data from the 2002 Canadian Community Health Survey-Mental Health and Well-being-Canadian Forces supplement (CCHS-CF) and the 2018 Canadian Armed Forces Members and Veterans Mental Health Follow-Up Survey (CAFVMHS; N = 2941). Multivariable logistic regressions examined associations between PTSD courses (reference = no PTSD) and physical health conditions.

RESULTS

In general, physical health conditions were more prevalent among symptomatic PTSD courses compared to no PTSD. After adjustment, new onset PTSD was associated with increased odds of all physical health conditions with the exception of ulcers and cancer (AOR range: 1.41-2.31) and remitted PTSD was associated with increased odds of diabetes (AOR = 2.31).

CONCLUSION

Results suggest that new onset PTSD may be most strongly associated with physical health conditions. Findings may inform targeted screening and intervention methods among military personnel with PTSD and physical health conditions.

Predicting suicide attempts among U.S. Army soldiers after leaving active duty using information available before leaving active duty: results from the Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers-Longitudinal Study (STARRS-LS)

Suicide risk is elevated among military service members who recently transitioned to civilian life. Identifying high-risk service members before this transition could facilitate provision of targeted preventive interventions. We investigated the feasibility of doing this by attempting to develop a prediction model for self-reported suicide attempts (SAs) after leaving or being released from active duty in the Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers-Longitudinal Study (STARRS-LS). This study included two self-report panel surveys (LS1: 2016-2018, LS2: 2018-2019) administered to respondents who previously participated while on active duty in one of three Army STARRS 2011-2014 baseline self-report surveys. We focus on respondents who left active duty >12 months before their LS survey (n = 8899). An ensemble machine learning model using predictors available prior to leaving active duty was developed in a 70% training sample and validated in a 30% test sample. The 12-month self-reported SA prevalence (SE) was 1.0% (0.1). Test sample AUC (SE) was 0.74 (0.06). The 15% of respondents with highest predicted risk included nearly two-thirds of 12-month SAs and over 80% of medically serious 12-month SAs. These results show that it is possible to identify soldiers at high post-transition self-report SA risk before the transition. Future model development is needed to examine prediction of SAs assessed by administrative data and using surveys administered closer to the time of leaving active duty.

Parental suicide attempt and subsequent risk of pre-enlistment suicide attempt among male and female new soldiers in the U.S. Army

OBJECTIVE

Suicide and suicide attempts among U.S. Army soldiers are a significant concern for public health. This study examined the association of parental suicide attempt prior to age 13 of the soldier with subsequent risk of pre-enlistment suicide attempt.

METHOD

We conducted secondary analyses of survey data from new soldiers who participated in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) (N = 38,396). A series of logistic regression analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

Of all new soldiers, 1.4% reported that they attempted suicide between age 13 and entering the Army, and 2.3% reported a parental suicide attempt prior to age 13. Parental suicide attempt was associated with increased odds of subsequent suicide attempt; however, this association was moderated by gender and was significant only among male soldiers. The association between parental suicide attempt and pre-enlistment suicide attempt among male soldiers was still significant after controlling for socio-demographic characteristics, soldier/parental psychopathology, and childhood adversities.

CONCLUSIONS

These results highlight parental suicide attempt as a unique pre-enlistment risk factor for suicide attempt, especially among male new soldiers. Further studies are needed to separate the genetic and environmental contributions to intra-familial risk for suicidal behavior.

Risk of suicide attempt in reserve versus active component soldiers during deployment to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan

INTRODUCTION

Little is known about the degree to which U.S. Army soldiers in the Reserve Components (Army National Guard and Army Reserve) and Active Component (Regular Army) differ with respect suicide attempt (SA) risk during high-stress times, such as deployment.

METHOD

Using administrative person-month records of enlisted soldiers on active duty during 2004-2009, we identified 1170 soldiers with a medically documented SA during deployment and an equal-probability control sample of other deployed soldiers (n = 52,828 person-months). Logistic regression analyses examined the association of Army component (Guard/Reserve vs. Regular) with SA before and after adjusting for socio-demographic and service-related predictors.

RESULTS

Guard/Reserve comprised 32.1% of enlisted soldiers and 19.7% of suicide attempters in-theater, with a SA rate of 81/100,000 person-years (vs. 157/100,000 person-years among Regular; rate ratio = 0.5 [95% CI = 0.5-0.6]). Risk peaked near mid-deployment for both groups but was consistently lower for Guard/Reserve throughout deployment. Guard/Reserve had lower odds of SA after adjusting for covariates (OR = 0.7 [95%CI = 0.6-0.8]). Predictors of SA were similar between components.

CONCLUSIONS

Guard/Reserve and Regular soldiers had similar patterns and predictors of SA during deployment, but Guard/Reserve had lower risk even after controlling for important risk factors. Additional research is needed to understand the lower SA risk among Guard/Reserve in-theater.

Pain is common after sexual assault and posttraumatic arousal/reactivity symptoms mediate the development of new or worsening persistent pain

ABSTRACT

Clinically significant new or worsening pain (CSNWP) is a common, yet often overlooked, sequelae of sexual assault. Little is known regarding factors influencing the development of CSNWP in sexual assault survivors. The current study used data from a recently completed prospective study to evaluate whether posttraumatic alterations in arousal and reactivity in the early aftermath of sexual assault influence the transition from acute to clinically significant new or worsening persistent pain. Women ≥ 18 years of age (n = 706) presenting for emergency care after sexual assault to 13 emergency care sites were enrolled in the study. Women completed assessments at the time of presentation as well as at 1 week (n = 706, 100%) and 6 weeks (n = 630, 91%). Nearly 70% of women reported CSNWP at the time of emergency care (n = 475, 69%), which persisted to 6 weeks in approximately 2 in 5 survivors (n = 248, 41%). A structural equation model adjusted for age, race, past trauma exposure, and preassault pain levels suggested that posttraumatic alterations in arousal/reactivity symptoms 1 week after assault partially mediated the transition from acute to persistent CSNWP. A significant portion (41%) of women sexual assault survivors develop CSNWP 6 weeks postassault. Posttraumatic arousal/reactivity symptoms in the early aftermath of assault contribute to CSNWP development; such symptoms are potential targets for secondary preventive interventions to reduce chronic postassault pain.

Attachment Style and Risk of Suicide Attempt Among New Soldiers in the U.S. Army

OBJECTIVE

Among U.S. Army soldiers suicide attempts (SAs) are a significant public health concern, particularly early in service. We examined the association of attachment style with SA and suicide ideation (SI) among U.S. Army soldiers.

METHODS

We analyzed survey data from new soldiers who participated in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS). The sample consists of 38,507 soldiers entering Basic Combat Training (BCT) between April 2011 and November 2012. Attachment style (secure, preoccupied, fearful, and dismissing) was assessed using items from the Relationship Questionnaire. Lifetime (pre-enlistment) SA and SI were assessed with a modified Columbia Suicide Severity Rating Scale. Logistic regression analyses examined associations of attachment style with lifetime SA, SI, and attempts among ideators, after adjusting for socio-demographic characteristics.

RESULTS

The secure attachment style was associated with lower odds of SA (OR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.63-0.92), whereas preoccupied (OR = 4.63, 95% CI = 3.83-5.61), fearful (OR = 4.08, 95% CI = 3.38-4.94), or dismissing (OR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.24-1.96) attachment styles were associated with higher odds of SA. Similar results were found for SI. Importantly, both preoccupied (OR = 1.67, 95% CI = 1.37-2.04) and fearful (OR = 1.70, 95% CI = 1.38-2.08) attachment were associated with attempts among ideators.

CONCLUSION

These findings highlight the clinical importance of attachment style in predicting suicidal behavior and as possible targets for intervention. A critical next step is for prospective research to examine whether attachment style predicts future suicidal behavior.