How Will the Occupation End? A Real-World Exploration of Hindsight Bias and Retroactive Pessimism Concerning Antigovernment Protests in Bulgaria

We explored hindsight bias and retroactive pessimism related to the occupation of Sofia University in 2013–2014, using a memory design. We found partial evidence for hindsight bias for predictions of whether the occupation would achieve its goal (the government's resignation) but not for specific events related to the occupation, which were deemed unlikely from the start and later perceived not to have occurred. We did not find evidence for retroactive pessimism: Hindsight bias indices for the prediction of the government's resignation were not reliably associated with support for the occupation and disappointment with its outcome. We propose using a recall/reconstruct measure as a more rigorous test for retroactive pessimism, which has so far been demonstrated through reassessment.

Older and younger adults' hindsight bias after positive and negative outcomes

After learning about facts or outcomes of events, people overestimate in hindsight what they knew in foresight. Prior research has shown that this hindsight bias is more pronounced in older than in younger adults. However, this robust finding is based primarily on a specific paradigm that requires generating and recalling numerical judgments to general knowledge questions that deal with emotionally neutral content. As older and younger adults tend to process positive and negative information differently, they might also show differences in hindsight bias after positive and negative outcomes. Furthermore, hindsight bias can manifest itself as a bias in memory for prior given judgments, but also as retrospective impressions of inevitability and foreseeability. Currently, there is no research on age differences in all three manifestations of hindsight bias. In this study, younger (N = 46, 18-30 years) and older adults (N = 45, 64-90 years) listened to everyday-life scenarios that ended positively or negatively, recalled the expectation they previously held about the outcome (to measure the memory component of hindsight bias), and rated each outcome's foreseeability and inevitability. Compared with younger adults, older adults recalled their prior expectations as closer to the actual outcomes (i.e., they showed a larger memory component of hindsight bias), and this age difference was more pronounced for negative than for positive outcomes. Inevitability and foreseeability impressions, however, did not differ between the age groups. Thus, there are age differences in hindsight bias after positive and negative outcomes, but only with regard to memory for prior judgments.

Only Familiar Information is a "Curse": Children's Ability to Predict What Their Peers Know

The ability to make inferences about what one's peers know is critical for social interaction and communication. Three experiments (n = 309) examined the curse of knowledge, the tendency to be biased by one's knowledge when reasoning about others' knowledge, in children's estimates of their peers' knowledge. Four- to 7-year-olds were taught the answers to factual questions and estimated how many peers would know the answers. When children learned familiar answers, they showed a curse of knowledge in their peer estimates. But, when children learned unfamiliar answers to the same questions, they did not show a curse of knowledge. These data shed light on the mechanisms underlying perspective taking, supporting a fluency misattribution account of the curse of knowledge.

'More than devastating'-patient experiences and neurological sequelae of Japanese encephalitis§

BACKGROUND

Japanese encephalitis (JE), caused by the mosquito-borne JE virus, is a vaccine-preventable disease endemic to much of Asia. Travellers from non-endemic areas are susceptible if they travel to a JE endemic area. Although the risk to travellers of JE is low, the consequences may be severe.

METHODS

Here, we describe three cases of JE in British travellers occurring in 2014-15. In addition, we report, through interviews with survivors and their families, personal experiences of life after JE.

RESULTS

Three cases of JE were diagnosed in British travellers in 2014/15. One was acquired in Thailand, one in China and one in either Thailand, Laos or Cambodia. All three patients suffered severe, life-threatening illnesses, all were admitted to intensive care units and required medical evacuation back to the UK. One patient suffered a cardiac arrest during the acute stage but made a good recovery. The other two patients remain significantly paralysed and ventilator dependent. All three cases had clear indications for vaccination, and all have been left with life-changing neurological sequelae.

CONCLUSIONS

Travel health providers should be aware of the severity of JE, as well as the risk, allowing travellers to make fully informed decisions on JE vaccination.

Men's Preconception Health: A Primary Health-Care Viewpoint

The purpose of this article is to theoretically explore men’s preconception health as a mechanism to enhance fertility, as well as the health and well-being of the subject and his descendants. Premorbid risk factors and behaviors associated with stress, environmental toxins, excessive alcohol consumption, smoking, lack of exercise/obesity, and the use of illicit drugs are all known to affect fecundity. While there are many health clinics available to women, where advice in areas such as postnatal care of the newborn, family planning, and couples fertility is provided, there are few, if any, equivalent health clinics available to men.

Additionally, getting men to attend primary health-care services has also been continuously problematic, even in the context of there being a clearly discernible need for treatment. It is argued in this article that an impetus is required to encourage men to focus on and improve their preconception health and to utilize primary health-care services to take action. An assertive men’s preconception health outlook can positively influence the conjugal relationship, fathering, male self-esteem, and continued good health. Using the sometimes complex concept of preconception health as a motivating factor for healthy lifestyle adaptation has the potential to improve male fertility outcomes and general health and well-being, as well as the health of future generations.

A 'curse of knowledge' in the absence of knowledge? People misattribute fluency when judging how common knowledge is among their peers

Knowledge can be a curse: Once we have acquired a particular item of knowledge it tends to bias, or contaminate, our ability to reason about a less informed perspective (referred to as the 'curse of knowledge' or 'hindsight bias'). The mechanisms underlying the curse of knowledge bias are a matter of great import and debate. We highlight two mechanisms that have been proposed to underlie this bias-inhibition and fluency misattribution. Explanations that involve inhibition argue that people have difficulty fully inhibiting or suppressing the content of their knowledge when trying to reason about a less informed perspective. Explanations that involve fluency misattribution focus on the feelings of fluency with which the information comes to mind and the tendency to misattribute the subjective feelings of fluency associated with familiar items to the objective ease or foreseeability of that information. Three experiments with a total of 359 undergraduate students provide the first evidence that fluency misattribution processes are sufficient to induce the curse of knowledge bias. These results add to the literature on the many manifestations of the curse of knowledge bias and the many types of source misattributions, by revealing their role in people's judgements of how common, or widespread, one's knowledge is. The implications of these results for cognitive science and social cognition are discussed.

Epigenetics and personalized medicine: prospects and ethical issues

As scientific knowledge about gene-environment interactions and the role of epigenetic factors in gene expression grows, new possibilities for personalized medicine may be opened up. In particular, the associations that have been demonstrated between epigenetic markers and certain diseases are an exciting development for personalized medicine. These advances also create new ethical challenges, regarding causal and moral responsibility, due to unique characteristics of how epigenetic effects regulate gene expression, are established and may change over the course of a person's life. This article examines the ethical implications of integrating epigenetic knowledge into personalized medicine.

Publication bias, with a focus on psychiatry: causes and solutions

Publication bias undermines the integrity of the evidence base by inflating apparent drug efficacy and minimizing drug harms, thus skewing the risk-benefit ratio. This paper reviews the topic of publication bias with a focus on drugs prescribed for psychiatric conditions, especially depression, schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and autism. Publication bias is pervasive; although psychiatry/psychology may be the most seriously afflicted field, it occurs throughout medicine and science. Responsibility lies with various parties (authors as well as journals, academia as well as industry), so the motives appear to extend beyond the financial interests of drug companies. The desire for success, in combination with cognitive biases, can also influence academic authors and journals. Amid the flood of new medical information coming out each day, the attention of the news media and academic community is more likely to be captured by studies whose results are positive or newsworthy. In the peer review system, a fundamental flaw arises from the fact that authors usually write manuscripts after they know the results. This allows hindsight and other biases to come into play, so data can be "tortured until they confess" (a detailed example is given). If a "publishable" result cannot be achieved, non-publication remains an option. To address publication bias, various measures have been undertaken, including registries of clinical trials. Drug regulatory agencies can provide valuable unpublished data. It is suggested that journals borrow from the FDA review model. Because the significance of study results biases reviewers, results should be excluded from review until after a preliminary judgment of study scientific quality has been rendered, based on the original study protocol. Protocol publication can further enhance the credibility of the published literature.

What If We Were Texas Sharpshooters? Predictor Reporting Bias in Regression Analysis

The author analyzes reporting biases in regression analyses. The consequences of researchers’ strategy to select significant predictors and omit nonsignificant predictors from regression analyses are examined, focusing on how this strategy—labeled the Texas sharpshooter (TS) approach—creates a predictor reporting bias (PRB) in primary studies and research syntheses. PRB was demonstrated in simulation studies when correlation coefficients from several primary regression studies with an underlying TS approach were aggregated in meta-analyses. Several important findings are noted. First, meta-analytical effect sizes of true effects can be overestimated because smaller, nonsignificant findings are omitted from regression models. Second, suppression effects of correlated predictor variables create biased effect size estimations for variables that are not related to the outcome. Finally, existing small effects are concealed, and between-study heterogeneity can be overestimated. Results show that PRB is contingent on sample size. While PRB is substantial in studies with small sample sizes ( N < 100), it is negligible when large sample sizes ( N > 500) are analyzed. Preconditions and remedies for reporting biases in regression analyses are discussed.

Undoing suggestive influence on memory: the reversibility of the eyewitness misinformation effect

Presenting inconsistent postevent information about a witnessed incident typically decreases the accuracy of memory reports concerning that event (the misinformation effect). Surprisingly, the reversibility of the effect (after an initial occurrence) has remained largely unexplored. Based on a memory conversion theoretical framework and associated refined assessment strategy, we report three experiments to demonstrate that suggestive influence can be completely undone. Initially established misinformation effects were eliminated - even after a period of 5 weeks (Exp. 3) - through (a) an enlightenment procedure ensuring an adequate representation of the memory task as a search for potentially two contradictory items (instead of "the" single "correct" answer) and (b) using a memory state test that unconfounds the performance contributions of item and source memory by assessing them separately. Specifically, memory for original event details that were the target of misinformation was restored to the level of non-misled control performance, and even beyond (Exp. 3). This remarkable reversibility of misinformation influence highlights the central role of memory conversion processes in the misinformation effect (but does not principally exclude the contribution of traditional interference processes). We discuss the compatibility of our findings with previous research and make suggestions for real-world eyewitness interrogation.

Warum in einer Kindertagesstätte arbeiten?

Zusammenfassung: In dieser Studie wurden Faktoren untersucht, die die Entscheidung für eine Ausbildung bzw. für ein Studium mit dem Ziel einer späteren Tätigkeit in Kindertageseinrichtungen beeinflussen. Bei insgesamt 1233 angehenden ErzieherInnen an Fachschulen und Frühpädagogik-Studierenden an Hochschulen wurden bei Erst- und Viertsemestern mittels latenter Klassenanalysen zwei unterschiedliche Entscheidungstypen für die ErzieherInnen-Ausbildung bzw. ein Frühpädagogik-Studium identifiziert. In beiden Kohorten wurden über 70 % der Personen einem «sicheren» Entscheidungstyp, annähernd 30 % einem «unsicheren» Entscheidungstyp zugeordnet. Als Prädiktoren für die Zugehörigkeit zu den Typen erwiesen sich vor allem intrinsische Tätigkeitsanreize und Kompetenzüberzeugungen. Die Personen der beiden Entscheidungstypen unterschieden sich außerdem in der ausbildungs- bzw. studienbezogenen Lernzielorientierung und Arbeitsvermeidung. Die Implikationen dieser Ergebnisse für die Ausbildung und Rekrutierung frühpädagogischer Fachkräfte werden diskutiert.

Hindsight Bias and Causal Attribution

Hindsight bias describes characteristic changes in the perceptions of events or facts once their outcomes are known. This article focuses on one important facet of this, named creeping determinism, denoting enhanced hindsight perceptions of the inevitability of event outcomes. We suggest a systematic link between the literatures on causal attribution and hindsight bias/creeping determinism and introduce a comprehensive causal model theory (CMT) of creeping determinism. We then distinguish between two alternative versions of CMT, which reflect recent debates in the causal attribution literature. These versions assume, respectively, that individuals make causal attributions by means of covariation analysis or via the discovery of some underlying mechanism. In order to contrast these assumptions, we introduce a new hypothesis concerning the magnitude of creeping determinism, based on the conjunction effect in causal attribution, and we present empirical evidence concerning this hypothesis.

Fluency misattribution and visual hindsight bias

We tested a fluency-misattribution theory of visual hindsight bias, and examined how perceptual and conceptual fluency contribute to the bias. In Experiment 1a observers identified celebrity faces that began blurred and then clarified (Forward baseline), or indicated when faces that began clear and then blurred were no longer recognisable (Backward baseline). In surprise memory tests that followed, observers adjusted the degree of blur of each face to match what the faces looked like when identified in the corresponding baseline condition. Hindsight bias was observed in the Forward condition: During the memory test observers adjusted the faces to be more blurry than when originally identified during baseline. These same observers did not show hindsight bias in the Backward condition: Here, they adjusted faces to the exact blur level at which they identified the faces during baseline. Experiment 1b tested a combined condition in which faces were viewed in a Forward progression at baseline but in a Backward progression at test. Hindsight bias was observed in this condition but was significantly less than the bias observed in the Experiment 1a Forward condition. Experiments 1a and 1b provide support for the fluency-misattribution account of visual hindsight bias: When observers are made aware of why fluency has been enhanced (i.e., in the Backward condition) they are better able to discount it, and as a result show reduced or no hindsight bias. In Experiment 2, observers viewed faces in a Forward progression at baseline and then in a Forward upright or inverted progression at test. Hindsight bias occurred in both conditions, but was greater for upright than inverted faces. We conclude that both conceptual and perceptual fluency contribute to visual hindsight bias.