Planetary Opportunities: A Social Contract for Global Change Science to Contribute to a Sustainable Future

Farm forests, seasonal hunger, and biomass poverty: Evidence of induced intensification from panel data in the Ethiopian Highlands

Seasonal hunger is the most common food insecurity experience for millions of small dryland farmers. This study tests the relationships between food insecurity, farm forests, and biomass poverty using a longitudinal dataset from the Amhara region of Ethiopia. These data form part of the Ethiopia Socioeconomic Survey, which collected panel data over three survey rounds from 530 households between 2011 and 2016. This dataset represents a collection of unique socioeconomic, wellbeing, and micro-land use measures, including farm forests. Hierarchical mixed effect regression models assessed the relationship between food insecurity and farm forests as well as the conditional effects of biomass poverty among the poorest farmers and women-headed households. Over a six-year study period, farmers reported increased stress from smaller land holdings, higher prices, and climate-related shocks. A clear trend towards spontaneous dispersed afforestation is observed by both researchers and satellite remote sensing. Model results indicate, dedicating approximately 10% of farm area to forest reduces months of food insecurity by half. The greatest reductions in food insecurity from farm forests are reported by ultra-poor and crop residue-burning households, suggesting that biomass poverty may be a major constraint to resilient food security on these farms. This research provides novel quantitative evidence of induced intensification and food security impacts of farm management preserving and building stores of biomass value as green assets. The results reported here have important implications for nature-based solutions as a major strategy to achieve sustainable development in some contexts.

The Anthropocene condition: evolving through social-ecological transformations

Anthropogenic planetary disruptions, from climate change to biodiversity loss, are unprecedented challenges for human societies. Some societies, social groups, cultural practices, technologies and institutions are already disintegrating or disappearing as a result. However, this coupling of socially produced environmental challenges with disruptive social changes-the Anthropocene condition-is not new. From food-producing hunter-gatherers, to farmers, to urban industrial food systems, the current planetary entanglement has its roots in millennia of evolving and accumulating sociocultural capabilities for shaping the cultured environments that our societies have always lived in (sociocultural niche construction). When these transformative capabilities to shape environments are coupled with sociocultural adaptations enabling societies to more effectively shape and live in transformed environments, the social-ecological scales and intensities of these transformations can accelerate through a positive feedback loop of 'runaway sociocultural niche construction'. Efforts to achieve a better future for both people and planet will depend on guiding this runaway evolutionary process towards better outcomes by redirecting Earth's most disruptive force of nature: the power of human aspirations. To guide this unprecedented planetary force, cultural narratives that appeal to human aspirations for a better future will be more effective than narratives of environmental crisis and overstepping natural boundaries. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

No-take marine protected areas enhance the benefits of kelp-forest restoration for fish but not fisheries

Kelp habitat restoration is gaining traction as a management action to support recovery in areas affected by severe disturbances, thereby ensuring the sustainability of ecosystem services. Knowing when and where to restore is a major question. Using a single-species population model, we consider how restoring inside marine protected areas (MPAs) might benefit coastal fish populations and fisheries. We found that MPAs can greatly enhance the population benefits of restoration but at a small cost to fishery yields. Generally, restoring inside MPAs had a better overall gains-loss outcome, especially if the system is under high fishing pressure or severe habitat loss. However, restoring outside became preferable when predatory fish indirectly benefit kelp habitats. In either case, successful restoration actions may be difficult to detect in time-series data due to complex transient dynamics. We provide context for setting management goals and social expectations for the ecosystem service implications of restoration in MPAs.

An environmental measurement for a dynamic and endogenous global environmental Kuznets curve in the global context

Planetary boundaries (PB) is a novel conceptual framework that assesses the state of processes fundamental to the stability of the Earth system. Studies argue a non-linear relationship between economy and environmental degradation, known as the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). We postulate this inverted-U association between PB and economic output in a worldwide sample. This paper, therefore, examines the correlation between changes in environmental conditions and global economic growth, incorporating the growth rate of key control variables (population, financial development, merchandise trade and regulations). Thus, we intend to identify and address the main gaps in these EKC studies and analyse the impacts of worldwide economic growth on global environmental change. PB variables are identified as the more integrated perspective with regard to this change. These planetary boundaries include various proxies: global CO2 concentration as a climate change proxy, threatened species for biodiversity loss, the total ozone for ozone depletion, mean surface ocean hydrogen ion concentration for ocean acidification and global fertiliser consumption for biochemical cycles. Under this integrated perspective, the EKC hypothesis is supported for climate change and ocean acidification panels using a dynamic system generalized method of moments (GMM) approach. Meanwhile, biochemical cycles, ozone depletion and freshwater use, land change and biodiversity loss boundaries do not support the existence of the EKC shape using the same methodology. The results provide an additional and novel view to be factored into the decisions of policymaker and investment institutions to contribute to sustainable development in all countries.

Biochar application to rice with 15N-labelled fertilizers, enhanced leaf nitrogen concentration and assimilation by improving morpho-physiological traits and soil quality

Leaf nitrogen (N) concentration plays an important role in biochemical and physiological functions, and N availability directly influences rice yield. However, excessive N fertilization is considered to be a root cause of environmental issues and low nitrogen use efficiency. Therefore, the selection of appropriate nutrient management practices and organic amendments is key to maximizing nitrogen uptake and maintaining high and sustainable rice production. Here, we evaluated the effects of different ¹⁵N-labelled nitrogen sources (urea, ammonium nitrate, and ammonium sulfate at 315 kg ha^-1) with or without biochar (30 t ha^-1) on paddy soil properties, root growth, leaf gas exchange, N metabolism enzymes, and N uptake in the early and late seasons of 2019. We found significant differences among N fertilizer sources applied with or without biochar (P < 0.05). Across the seasons, the combination of biochar with N fertilizers significantly increased soil organic carbon by 51.21% and nitrogen availability by 27.51% compared with N fertilizers alone. Correlation analysis showed that rice root morphological traits were strongly related to soil chemical properties, and higher root growth was measured in the biochar treatments. Similarly, net leaf photosynthetic rate averaged 9.34% higher, chlorophyll (Chl) a concentration 12.91% higher, and Chl b concentration 10.05% higher in the biochar treatments than in the biochar-free treatments across the seasons. Notably, leaf ¹⁵N concentration was 23.19% higher in the biochar treatments in both seasons. These results illustrated higher activities of N metabolism enzymes such as NR, GS, and GOGAT by an average 23.44%, 11.26% and 18.16% in the biochar treatments across the seasons, respectively. The addition of biochar with synthetic N fertilizers is an ecological nutrient management strategy that can increase N uptake and assimilation by ameliorating soil properties and improving the morpho-physiological factors of rice.

Nexus between environmental, social and economic development in South Asia: evidence from econometric models

This study investigates the impact of various economic, social and environmental indicators on economic growth in South Asian countries. Using the data throughout 1990–2017, a panel data estimation method is adopted with sophisticated econometric approaches. The obtained results indicate a long-term positive effect of biological capacity, financial development, human development index, income inequality on economic growth while the effect of energy use is the opposite. The findings of the study suggest that governments and associated bodies must promote financial development, human development, and biocapacity to not only attain economic growth in the long-run and but dissuade ecological footprint, and income inequality at the same time while matching the energy consumption with the bio-capacity of each economy.

Management of agriculture innovations: Role in Economic Development

Agriculture has a significant economic position in each country, either historically or in terms of importance. Without the products of agriculture, there could be no life. That's the reason to analyze this industry. This industry is now, in the current global world, affected by new trends and new competition on the market. New management, innovations, and other challenges that occurred in this sector. It must face new threats. Especially, significant changes in the global world environment significantly affect this sector. Firstly, through the volume of crop production, respectively non-production due to significant climate changes. Secondly, due to stricter market conditions and its current regulation. Changes in these areas have a significant impact not only on the development in the agricultural sector itself but also on the development of the economy as a whole. Today, competitiveness plays a significant role in the world, as well as in agriculture. This paper summarizes the findings from the area of agriculture, nowadays trends in this sector, innovations. It analyses the competitiveness in this sector, which is characterized by its specific features. Then it summarizes the findings and main thesis about Common Agricultural Policy and its instruments. Another part of this article is dedicated to a very important topic - innovation in agriculture. Agricultural innovation is seen as a co-evolutionary process because it combined technological, social, economic, and institutional changes. The main aim of the article is to identify the impact of agriculture on the economic development of the Slovak Republic economy and to show the possibilities for innovation implementing into this sector. The selected indicators will analyze the description of the position of this sector in the past and today. The typical indicators for the agricultural sector were set. Methodological tools of the research methods were analyzing statistical methods as a regression model, and p-value. Through a regression model, we would like to know what is the dependence of crop and livestock productions on the GDP of agriculture. Finally, improvements to the current state will be suggested. To gain the representative data, more than 20 years of research were set. The object of research is the Slovak republic. The position of agriculture within this country was identified. The article shows the results of verification of dependencies between indicators in the agricultural sector, which showed that statistical significance is assumed, which of course is confirmed both in crop and livestock production. The systematization of domestic and foreign scientific studies and approaches to answering problems in the management of agricultural innovations and the low share of agriculture on GDP makes it possible to create suggestions for the innovative solutions in agriculture in Slovakia. Keywords: agriculture, management, innovation, crop production, livestock production, Slovak Republic.

Assessing the sustainability of post-Green Revolution cereals in India

Substantial growth in food production has occurred from a narrowing diversity of crops over the last 50 y. Agricultural policies have largely focused on the single objective of maximizing production with less attention given to nutrition, climate, and environment. Decisions about sustainable food systems require quantifying and assessing multiple dimensions together. In India, diversifying crop production to include more coarse cereals, such as millets and sorghum, can make food supply more nutritious, reduce resource demand and greenhouse gas emissions, and enhance climate resilience without reducing calorie production or requiring more land. Similar multidimensional approaches to food production challenges in other parts of the world can identify win–win scenarios where food systems meet multiple nutritional, environmental, and climate resilience goals.

Sustainable food systems aim to provide sufficient and nutritious food, while maximizing climate resilience and minimizing resource demands as well as negative environmental impacts. Historical practices, notably the Green Revolution, prioritized the single objective to maximize production over other nutritional and environmental dimensions. We quantitatively assess outcomes of alternative production decisions across multiple objectives using India’s rice-dominated monsoon cereal production as an example. We perform a series of optimizations to maximize nutrient production (i.e., protein and iron), minimize greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and resource use (i.e., water and energy), or maximize resilience to climate extremes. We find that increasing the area under coarse cereals (i.e., millets, sorghum) improves nutritional supply (on average, +1% to +5% protein and +5% to +49% iron), increases climate resilience (1% to 13% fewer calories lost during an extreme dry year), and reduces GHGs (−2% to −13%) and demand for irrigation water (−3% to −21%) and energy (−2% to −12%) while maintaining calorie production and cropped area. The extent of these benefits partly depends on the feasibility of switching cropped area from rice to coarse cereals. Based on current production practices in 2 states, supporting these cobenefits could require greater manure and draft power but similar or less labor, fertilizer, and machinery. National- and state-level strategies considering multiple objectives in decisions about cereal production can move beyond many shortcomings of the Green Revolution while reinforcing the benefits. This ability to realistically incorporate multiple dimensions into intervention planning and implementation is the crux of sustainable food production systems worldwide.

An improved method for assessing mismatches between supply and demand in urban regulating ecosystem services: A case study in Tabriz, Iran

Regulating ecosystem services provided by urban forests are of great importance for the quality of life among city dwellers. To reach a maximum contribution to well-being in cities, the urban regulating ecosystem services (URES) must match with the demands in terms of space and time. If we understand the matches or mismatches between the current urban dwellers' desired quality conditions (demand) and the supply of URES by urban forests (UF) in the cities, this will facilitate integrating the concepts of ecosystem services in urban planning and management, but such an assessment has suffered from major knowledge limitations. Since it is complex and problematic to identify the direct demands for URES and the spatiotemporal patterns therein, improving the demand indicators can help to determine the actual requirements. In this paper, a methodological approach based on indicators is presented and demonstrated for two important URES: air quality improvement and global climate change mitigation provided by urban trees and shrubs. Four air quality standards and greenhouse gas reduction targets were used and compared to supplies of the URES in Tabriz, Iran. Our results show that the mean contribution of the URES supply to air quality standards and greenhouse gas reduction targets is modest. Hence, in Tabriz, there is a strong mismatch between demand and supply. Mismatches at the city scale will have to be reduced by both a reduction in pollutant emissions and an increased provisioning of URES supply through urban greenery. The presented assessment approach and the results for Tabriz make it explicit how different the demands and supplies of the two studied URES are, and we expect similar mismatches in many other cities. Therefore, our approach, relatively simple but still realistic and easy-to-apply, can raise awareness about, and the utility of, the ecosystem services concepts for urban planning and policymaking.

Mapping global development potential for renewable energy, fossil fuels, mining and agriculture sectors

Mapping suitable land for development is essential to land use planning efforts that aim to model, anticipate, and manage trade-offs between economic development and the environment. Previous land suitability assessments have generally focused on a few development sectors or lack consistent methodologies, thereby limiting our ability to plan for cumulative development pressures across geographic regions. Here, we generated 1-km spatially-explicit global land suitability maps, referred to as "development potential indices" (DPIs), for 13 sectors related to renewable energy (concentrated solar power, photovoltaic solar, wind, hydropower), fossil fuels (coal, conventional and unconventional oil and gas), mining (metallic, non-metallic), and agriculture (crop, biofuels expansion). To do so, we applied spatial multi-criteria decision analysis techniques that accounted for both resource potential and development feasibility. For each DPI, we examined both uncertainty and sensitivity, and spatially validated the map using locations of planned development. We illustrate how these DPIs can be used to elucidate potential individual sector expansion and cumulative development patterns.

Identifying hotspots in land use land cover change and the drivers in a semi-arid region of India

The study examines long-term land use/land cover change (LUCC) at a finer scale in a semi-arid region of India. The objectives were to study and quantify the spatiotemporal LUCC and uncover the major drivers causing the change in the Mula Pravara river basin, which is located in a semi-arid region of Maharashtra state, India. Advanced very high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR)-Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) 3g data for the years 1982-2015 were used to identify the 'hotspot' with significant positive and negative LUCC. Multi-temporal Landsat imagery was used to produce finer scale land use maps. From 1991 to 2016, the agricultural land area increased by approximately 98% due to the conversion of uncultivable and fallow lands to agriculture. The built-up area increased by 195%, and in recent years, an urban expansion has occurred in agricultural lands close to the urban fringe areas. There has been a shift from food crops to commercial crops, as observed from the steep increase in the amount of land under horticultural plantations, by 1601% from 2001 to 2016. In addition, the area under forest canopy was reduced in the protected regions. Institutional factors that improved access to water resources were the major drivers of change in hotspots, especially in the context of agriculture. Technological and economic factors were the other supporting factors that contributed to the change. This study demonstrates the advantages of using satellite remote sensing techniques to monitor the LUCC, which is useful for predicting future land changes and aids in planning adaptation strategies.

Ecosystem change and human health: implementation economics and policy

Several recent initiatives such as Planetary Health, EcoHealth and One Health claim that human health depends on flourishing natural ecosystems. However, little has been said about the operational and implementation challenges of health-oriented conservation actions on the ground. We contend that ecological–epidemiological research must be complemented by a form of implementation science that examines: (i) the links between specific conservation actions and the resulting ecological changes, and (ii) how this ecological change impacts human health and well-being, when human behaviours are considered. Drawing on the policy evaluation tradition in public economics, first, we present three examples of recent social science research on conservation interventions that affect human health. These examples are from low- and middle-income countries in the tropics and subtropics. Second, drawing on these examples, we present three propositions related to impact evaluation and non-market valuation that can help guide future multidisciplinary research on conservation and human health. Research guided by these propositions will allow stakeholders to determine how ecosystem-mediated strategies for health promotion compare with more conventional biomedical prevention and treatment strategies for safeguarding health.

This article is part of the themed issue ‘Conservation, biodiversity and infectious disease: scientific evidence and policy implications’.

Exploring Institutional Mechanisms for Scientific Input into the Management Cycle of the National Protected Area Network of Peru: Gaps and Opportunities

Understanding how to improve decision makers' use of scientific information across their different scales of management is a core challenge for narrowing the gap between science and conservation practice. Here, we present a study conducted in collaboration with decision makers that aims to explore the functionality of the mechanisms for scientific input within the institutional setting of the National Protected Area Network of Peru. First, we analyzed institutional mechanisms to assess the scientific information recorded by decision makers. Second, we developed two workshops involving scientists, decision makers and social actors to identify barriers to evidence-based conservation practice. Third, we administered 482 questionnaires to stakeholders to explore social perceptions of the role of science and the willingness to collaborate in the governance of protected areas. The results revealed that (1) the institutional mechanisms did not effectively promote the compilation and application of scientific knowledge for conservation practice; (2) six important barriers hindered scientific input in management decisions; and (3) stakeholders showed positive perceptions about the involvement of scientists in protected areas and expressed their willingness to collaborate in conservation practice. This collaborative research helped to (1) identify gaps and opportunities that should be addressed for increasing the effectiveness of the institutional mechanisms and (2) support institutional changes integrating science-based strategies for strengthening scientific input in decision-making. These insights provide a useful contextual orientation for scholars and decision makers interested in conducting empirical research to connect scientific inputs with operational aspects of the management cycle in other institutional settings around the world.

Reconciling irrigated food production with environmental flows for Sustainable Development Goals implementation

Safeguarding river ecosystems is a precondition for attaining the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) related to water and the environment, while rigid implementation of such policies may hamper achievement of food security. River ecosystems provide life-supporting functions that depend on maintaining environmental flow requirements (EFRs). Here we establish gridded process-based estimates of EFRs and their violation through human water withdrawals. Results indicate that 41% of current global irrigation water use (997 km³ per year) occurs at the expense of EFRs. If these volumes were to be reallocated to the ecosystems, half of globally irrigated cropland would face production losses of ≥10%, with losses of ∼20–30% of total country production especially in Central and South Asia. However, we explicitly show that improvement of irrigation practices can widely compensate for such losses on a sustainable basis. Integration with rainwater management can even achieve a 10% global net gain. Such management interventions are highlighted to act as a pivotal target in supporting the implementation of the ambitious and seemingly conflicting SDG agenda.

Sustainable development goals for water use and food production are in conflict, but this could be reduced by proper water management. Here, violations of global environmental flow requirements for rivers are quantified and related to reconciliation potentials in irrigated and rainfed agriculture.

Who collaborates and why: Assessment and diagnostic of governance network integration for salmon restoration in Puget Sound, USA

Governance silos are settings in which different organizations work in isolation and avoid sharing information and strategies. Siloes are a fundamental challenge for environmental planning and problem solving, which generally requires collaboration. Siloes can be overcome by creating governance networks. Studying the structure and function of these networks is important for understanding how to create institutional arrangements that can respond to the biophysical dynamics of a specific natural resource system (i.e., social-ecological, or institutional fit). Using the case of salmon restoration in a sub-basin of Puget Sound, USA, we assess network integration, considering three different reasons for network collaborations (i.e., mandated, funded, and shared interest relationships) and analyze how these different collaboration types relate to productivity based on practitioner's assessments. We also illustrate how specific and targeted network interventions might enhance the network. To do so, we use a mixed methods approach that combines quantitative social network analysis (SNA) and qualitative interview analysis. Overall, the sub-basin's governance network is fairly well integrated, but several concerning gaps exist. Funded, mandated, and shared interest relationships lead to different network patterns. Mandated relationships are associated with lower productivity than shared interest relationships, highlighting the benefit of genuine collaboration in collaborative watershed governance. Lastly, quantitative and qualitative data comparisons strengthen recent calls to incorporate geographic space and the role of individual actors versus organizational culture into natural resource governance research using SNA.

Future directions in human-environment research

Human-environment research in the 21st century will need to change in major ways. It will need to integrate the natural and the social sciences; it will need to engage stakeholders and citizens in the design of research and in the delivery of science for the benefit of society; it will need to address ethical and democratic goals; and it will need to address a myriad of important theoretical and methodological challenges that continue to impede progress in the advance of sustainability science.

Spatiotemporal variation in the relationship between landscape simplification and insecticide use

Agrochemicals have numerous negative impacts on human health, ecosystem services, and ecological communities. Thus, their efficient use is an economic and ecological priority. Simplified landscapes may enhance insecticide use by reducing natural enemies and increasing connectivity of crops, but empirical tests of this theory are inconclusive. We explored the relationship between landscape simplification and insecticide use using longitudinal data from USDA Census of Agriculture spanning six censuses and 25 years (1987, 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007, 2012) for nearly 3000 counties across the continental United States. The effect of landscape simplification was highly variable spatially and temporally. Landscape simplification was consistently correlated with increased insecticide use in some regions, but not in others. Our results indicate that the landscape-simplification-insecticide-use relationship is dynamic, and that national land use policy would benefit from actions that adequately reflect the spatial differences in the importance of landscape complexity to insecticide use.

Societal transformation in response to global environmental change: A review of emerging concepts

The study of societal transformation in response to environmental change has become established, yet little consensus exists regarding the conceptual basis of transformation. This paper aims to provide structure to the dialog on transformation, and to reflect on the challenges of social research in this area. Concepts of transformation are identified through a literature review, and examined using four analytical criteria. It is found that the term 'transformation' is frequently used merely as a metaphor. When transformation is not used as a metaphor, eight concepts are most frequently employed. They differ with respect to (i) system conceptualization, (ii) notions of social consciousness (deliberate/emergent), and (iii) outcome (prescriptive/descriptive). Problem-based research tends to adopt concepts of deliberate transformation with prescriptive outcome, while concepts of emergent transformation with no prescriptive outcome tend to inform descriptive-analytical research. Dialog around the complementarities of different concepts and their empirical testing are priorities for future research.

Strategic Actions to Value, Conserve, and Restore the Natural Capital of Megadiversity Countries: The Case of Mexico

Decisionmakers need updated, scientifically sound and relevant information to implement appropriate policy measures and make innovative commitments to halt biodiversity loss and improve human well-being. Here, we present a recent science-based synthesis on the biodiversity and ecosystem services of Mexico, intended to be a tool for policymakers. We describe the methodological approach used to undertake such an assessment and highlight the major findings. Organized into five volumes and originally written in Spanish (Capital Natural de México), it summarizes the available knowledge on the components, structure, and functioning of the biodiversity of Mexico; the threats and trajectories of anthropogenic impact, together with its conservation status; and the policies, institutions, and instruments available for its sustainable management. We stress the lessons learned that can be useful for similar exercises in other megadiverse developing countries and identify major gaps and strategic actions to conserve the natural capital in light of the challenges of the Anthropocene.

Synthesis in land change science: methodological patterns, challenges, and guidelines

Global and regional economic and environmental changes are increasingly influencing local land-use, livelihoods, and ecosystems. At the same time, cumulative local land changes are driving global and regional changes in biodiversity and the environment. To understand the causes and consequences of these changes, land change science (LCS) draws on a wide array synthetic and meta-study techniques to generate global and regional knowledge from local case studies of land change. Here, we review the characteristics and applications of synthesis methods in LCS and assess the current state of synthetic research based on a meta-analysis of synthesis studies from 1995 to 2012. Publication of synthesis research is accelerating, with a clear trend toward increasingly sophisticated and quantitative methods, including meta-analysis. Detailed trends in synthesis objectives, methods, and land change phenomena and world regions most commonly studied are presented. Significant challenges to successful synthesis research in LCS are also identified, including issues of interpretability and comparability across case-studies and the limits of and biases in the geographic coverage of case studies. Nevertheless, synthesis methods based on local case studies will remain essential for generating systematic global and regional understanding of local land change for the foreseeable future, and multiple opportunities exist to accelerate and enhance the reliability of synthetic LCS research in the future. Demand for global and regional knowledge generation will continue to grow to support adaptation and mitigation policies consistent with both the local realities and regional and global environmental and economic contexts of land change.

Macroecology Meets Macroeconomics: Resource Scarcity and Global Sustainability

The current economic paradigm, which is based on increasing human population, economic development, and standard of living, is no longer compatible with the biophysical limits of the finite Earth. Failure to recover from the economic crash of 2008 is not due just to inadequate fiscal and monetary policies. The continuing global crisis is also due to scarcity of critical resources. Our macroecological studies highlight the role in the economy of energy and natural resources: oil, gas, water, arable land, metals, rare earths, fertilizers, fisheries, and wood. As the modern industrial technological-informational economy expanded in recent decades, it grew by consuming the Earth's natural resources at unsustainable rates. Correlations between per capita GDP and per capita consumption of energy and other resources across nations and over time demonstrate how economic growth and development depend on "nature's capital". Decades-long trends of decreasing per capita consumption of multiple important commodities indicate that overexploitation has created an unsustainable bubble of population and economy.