Optimizing Training Population Data and Validation of Genomic Selection for Economic Traits in Soft Winter Wheat

The BLUP method in evaluation of breeding values of Russian spring wheat lines using micro- and macroelements in seeds

Genomic selection is a technology that allows for the determination of the genetic value of varieties of agricultural plants and animal breeds, based on information about genotypes and phenotypes. The measured breeding value (BV) for varieties and breeds in relation to the target trait allows breeding stages to be thoroughly planned and the parent forms suitable for crossing to be chosen. In this work, the BLUP method was used to assess the breeding value of 149 Russian varieties and introgression lines (4 measurements for each variety or line, 596 phenotypic points) of spring wheat according to the content of seven chemical elements in the grain - K, Ca, Mg, Mn, Fe, Zn, Cu. The quality of the evaluation of breeding values was assessed using cross-validation, when the sample was randomly divided into five parts, one of which was chosen as a test population. The following average values of the Pearson correlation were obtained for predicting the concentration of trace elements: K - 0.67, Ca - 0.61, Mg - 0.4, Mn - 0.5, Fe - 0.38, Zn - 0.46, Cu - 0.48. Out of the 35 models studied, the p-value was below the nominal significant threshold (p-value < 0.05) for 28 models. For 11 models, the p-value was significant after correction for multiple testing (p-value < 0.001). For Ca and K, four out of five models and for Mn two out of five models had a p-value below the threshold adjusted for multiple testing. For 30 varieties that showed the best varietal values for Ca, K and Mn, the average breeding value was 296.43, 785.11 and 4.87 mg/kg higher, respectively, than the average breeding value of the population. The results obtained show the relevance of the application of genomic selection models even in such limited-size samples. The models for K, Ca and Mn are suitable for assessing the breeding value of Russian wheat varieties based on these characteristics.

Selective Genotyping and Phenotyping for Optimization of Genomic Prediction Models for Populations with Different Diversity

To overcome the different challenges to food security caused by a growing population and climate change, soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) breeders are creating novel cultivars that have the potential to improve productivity while maintaining environmental sustainability. Genomic selection (GS) is an advanced approach that may accelerate the rate of genetic gain in breeding using genome-wide molecular markers. The accuracy of genomic selection can be affected by trait architecture and heritability, marker density, linkage disequilibrium, statistical models, and training set. The selection of a minimal and optimal marker set with high prediction accuracy can lower genotyping costs, computational time, and multicollinearity. Selective phenotyping could reduce the number of genotypes tested in the field while preserving the genetic diversity of the initial population. This study aimed to evaluate different methods of selective genotyping and phenotyping on the accuracy of genomic prediction for soybean yield. The evaluation was performed on three populations: recombinant inbred lines, multifamily diverse lines, and germplasm collection. Strategies adopted for marker selection were as follows: SNP (single nucleotide polymorphism) pruning, estimation of marker effects, randomly selected markers, and genome-wide association study. Reduction of the number of genotypes was performed by selecting a core set from the initial population based on marker data, yet maintaining the original population's genetic diversity. Prediction ability using all markers and genotypes was different among examined populations. The subsets obtained by the model-based strategy can be considered the most suitable for marker selection for all populations. The selective phenotyping based on makers in all cases had higher values of prediction ability compared to minimal values of prediction ability of multiple cycles of random selection, with the highest values of prediction obtained using AN approach and 75% population size. The obtained results indicate that selective genotyping and phenotyping hold great potential and can be integrated as tools for improving or retaining selection accuracy by reducing genotyping or phenotyping costs for genomic selection.

Utilization of a publicly available diversity panel in genomic prediction of Fusarium head blight resistance traits in wheat

Fusarium head blight (FHB) is an economically and environmentally concerning disease of wheat (Triticum aestivum L). A two-pronged approach of marker-assisted selection coupled with genomic selection has been suggested when breeding for FHB resistance. A historical dataset comprised of entries in the Southern Uniform Winter Wheat Scab Nursery (SUWWSN) from 2011 to 2021 was partitioned and used in genomic prediction. Two traits were curated from 2011 to 2021 in the SUWWSN: percent Fusarium damaged kernels (FDK) and deoxynivalenol (DON) content. Heritability was estimated for each trait-by-environment combination. A consistent set of check lines was drawn from each year in the SUWWSN, and k-means clustering was performed across environments to assign environments into clusters. Two clusters were identified as FDK and three for DON. Cross-validation on SUWWSN data from 2011 to 2019 indicated no outperforming training population in comparison to the combined dataset. Forward validation for FDK on the SUWWSN 2020 and 2021 data indicated a predictive accuracyr ≈ 0.58 $r \approx 0.58$ andr ≈ 0.53 $r \approx 0.53$ , respectively. Forward validation for DON indicated a predictive accuracy ofr ≈ 0.57 $r \approx 0.57$ andr ≈ 0.45 $r \approx 0.45$ , respectively. Forward validation using environments in cluster one for FDK indicated a predictive accuracy ofr ≈ 0.65 $r \approx 0.65$ andr ≈ 0.60 $r \approx 0.60$ , respectively. Forward validation using environments in cluster one for DON indicated a predictive accuracy ofr ≈ 0.67 $r \approx 0.67$ andr ≈ 0.60 $r \approx 0.60$ , respectively. These results indicated that selecting environments based on check performance may produce higher forward prediction accuracies. This work may be used as a model for utilizing public resources for genomic prediction of FHB resistance traits across public wheat breeding programs.

Improved multi-trait prediction of wheat end-product quality traits by integrating NIR-predicted phenotypes

Historically, end-product quality testing has been costly and required large flour samples; therefore, it was generally implemented in the late phases of variety development, imposing a huge cost on the breeding effort and effectiveness. High genetic correlations of end-product quality traits with higher throughput and nondestructive testing technologies, such as near-infrared (NIR), could enable early-stage testing and effective selection of these highly valuable traits in a multi-trait genomic prediction model. We studied the impact on prediction accuracy in genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) of adding NIR-predicted secondary traits for six end-product quality traits (crumb yellowness, water absorption, texture hardness, flour yield, grain protein, flour swelling volume). Bread wheat lines (1,400-1,900) were measured across 8 years (2012-2019) for six end-product quality traits with standard laboratory assays and with NIR, which were combined to generate predicted data for approximately 27,000 lines. All lines were genotyped with the Infinium™ Wheat Barley 40K BeadChip and imputed using exome sequence data. End-product and NIR phenotypes were genetically correlated (0.5-0.83, except for flour swelling volume 0.19). Prediction accuracies of end-product traits ranged between 0.28 and 0.64 and increased by 30% through the inclusion of NIR-predicted data compared to single-trait analysis. There was a high correlation between the multi-trait prediction accuracy and genetic correlations between end-product and NIR-predicted data (0.69-0.77). Our forward prediction validation revealed a gradual increase in prediction accuracy when adding more years to the multi-trait model. Overall, we achieved genomic prediction accuracy at a level that enables selection for end-product quality traits early in the breeding cycle.

Haplotype-tagged SNPs improve genomic prediction accuracy for Fusarium head blight resistance and yield-related traits in wheat

Linkage disequilibrium (LD)-based haplotyping with subsequent SNP tagging improved the genomic prediction accuracy up to 0.07 and 0.092 for Fusarium head blight resistance and spike width, respectively, across six different models. Genomic prediction is a powerful tool to enhance genetic gain in plant breeding. However, the method is accompanied by various complications leading to low prediction accuracy. One of the major challenges arises from the complex dimensionality of marker data. To overcome this issue, we applied two pre-selection methods for SNP markers viz. LD-based haplotype-tagging and GWAS-based trait-linked marker identification. Six different models were tested with preselected SNPs to predict the genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs) of four traits measured in 419 winter wheat genotypes. Ten different sets of haplotype-tagged SNPs were selected by adjusting the level of LD thresholds. In addition, various sets of trait-linked SNPs were identified with different scenarios from the training-test combined and only from the training populations. The BRR and RR-BLUP models developed from haplotype-tagged SNPs had a higher prediction accuracy for FHB and SPW by 0.07 and 0.092, respectively, compared to the corresponding models developed without marker pre-selection. The highest prediction accuracy for SPW and FHB was achieved with tagged SNPs pruned at weak LD thresholds (r² < 0.5), while stringent LD was required for spike length (SPL) and flag leaf area (FLA). Trait-linked SNPs identified only from training populations failed to improve the prediction accuracy of the four studied traits. Pre-selection of SNPs via LD-based haplotype-tagging could play a vital role in optimizing genomic selection and reducing genotyping costs. Furthermore, the method could pave the way for developing low-cost genotyping methods through customized genotyping platforms targeting key SNP markers tagged to essential haplotype blocks.

Advances in integrated genomic selection for rapid genetic gain in crop improvement: a review

Genomic selection and its importance in crop breeding. Integration of GS with new breeding tools and developing SOP for GS to achieve maximum genetic gain with low cost and time. The success of conventional breeding approaches is not sufficient to meet the demand of a growing population for nutritious food and other plant-based products. Whereas, marker assisted selection (MAS) is not efficient in capturing all the favorable alleles responsible for economic traits in the process of crop improvement. Genomic selection (GS) developed in livestock breeding and then adapted to plant breeding promised to overcome the drawbacks of MAS and significantly improve complicated traits controlled by gene/QTL with small effects. Large-scale deployment of GS in important crops, as well as simulation studies in a variety of contexts, addressed G × E interaction effects and non-additive effects, as well as lowering breeding costs and time. The current study provides a complete overview of genomic selection, its process, and importance in modern plant breeding, along with insights into its application. GS has been implemented in the improvement of complex traits including tolerance to biotic and abiotic stresses. Furthermore, this review hypothesises that using GS in conjunction with other crop improvement platforms accelerates the breeding process to increase genetic gain. The objective of this review is to highlight the development of an appropriate GS model, the global open source network for GS, and trans-disciplinary approaches for effective accelerated crop improvement. The current study focused on the application of data science, including machine learning and deep learning tools, to enhance the accuracy of prediction models. Present study emphasizes on developing plant breeding strategies centered on GS combined with routine conventional breeding principles by developing GS-SOP to achieve enhanced genetic gain.

Performance of Bayesian and BLUP alphabets for genomic prediction: analysis, comparison and results

We evaluated the performances of three BLUP and five Bayesian methods for genomic prediction by using nine actual and 54 simulated datasets. The genomic prediction accuracy was measured using Pearson's correlation coefficient between the genomic estimated breeding value (GEBV) and the observed phenotypic data using a fivefold cross-validation approach with 100 replications. The Bayesian alphabets performed better for the traits governed by a few genes/QTLs with relatively larger effects. On the contrary, the BLUP alphabets (GBLUP and CBLUP) exhibited higher genomic prediction accuracy for the traits controlled by several small-effect QTLs. Additionally, Bayesian methods performed better for the highly heritable traits and, for other traits, performed at par with the BLUP methods. Further, genomic BLUP (GBLUP) was identified as the least biased method for the GEBV estimation. Among the Bayesian methods, the Bayesian ridge regression and Bayesian LASSO were less biased than other Bayesian alphabets. Nonetheless, genomic prediction accuracy increased with an increase in trait heritability, irrespective of the sample size, marker density, and the QTL type (major/minor effect). In sum, this study provides valuable information regarding the choice of the selection method for genomic prediction in different breeding programs.

Machine learning models outperform deep learning models, provide interpretation and facilitate feature selection for soybean trait prediction

Recent growth in crop genomic and trait data have opened opportunities for the application of novel approaches to accelerate crop improvement. Machine learning and deep learning are at the forefront of prediction-based data analysis. However, few approaches for genotype to phenotype prediction compare machine learning with deep learning and further interpret the models that support the predictions. This study uses genome wide molecular markers and traits across 1110 soybean individuals to develop accurate prediction models. For 13/14 sets of predictions, XGBoost or random forest outperformed deep learning models in prediction performance. Top ranked SNPs by F-score were identified from XGBoost, and with further investigation found overlap with significantly associated loci identified from GWAS and previous literature. Feature importance rankings were used to reduce marker input by up to 90%, and subsequent models maintained or improved their prediction performance. These findings support interpretable machine learning as an approach for genomic based prediction of traits in soybean and other crops.

Genomic prediction of preliminary yield trials in chickpea: Effect of functional annotation of SNPs and environment

Achieving yield potential in chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) is limited by many constraints that include biotic and abiotic stresses. Combining next-generation sequencing technology with advanced statistical modeling has the potential to increase genetic gain efficiently. Whole genome resequencing data was obtained from 315 advanced chickpea breeding lines from the Australian chickpea breeding program resulting in more than 298,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) discovered. Analysis of population structure revealed a distinct group of breeding lines with many alleles that are absent from recently released Australian cultivars. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) using these Australian breeding lines identified 20 SNPs significantly associated with grain yield in multiple field environments. A reduced level of nucleotide diversity and extended linkage disequilibrium suggested that some regions in these chickpea genomes may have been through selective breeding for yield or other traits. A large introgression segment that introduced from C. echinospermum for phytophthora root rot resistance was identified on chromosome 6, yet it also has unintended consequences of reducing yield due to linkage drag. We further investigated the effect of genotype by environment interaction on genomic prediction of yield. We found that the training set had better prediction accuracy when phenotyped under conditions relevant to the targeted environments. We also investigated the effect of SNP functional annotation on prediction accuracy using different subsets of SNPs based on their genomic locations: regulatory regions, exome, and alternative splice sites. Compared with the whole SNP dataset, a subset of SNPs did not significantly decrease prediction accuracy for grain yield despite consisting of a smaller number of SNPs.

GPTransformer: A Transformer-Based Deep Learning Method for Predicting Fusarium Related Traits in Barley

Fusarium head blight (FHB) incited by Fusarium graminearum Schwabe is a devastating disease of barley and other cereal crops worldwide. Fusarium head blight is associated with trichothecene mycotoxins such as deoxynivalenol (DON), which contaminates grains, making them unfit for malting or animal feed industries. While genetically resistant cultivars offer the best economic and environmentally responsible means to mitigate disease, parent lines with adequate resistance are limited in barley. Resistance breeding based upon quantitative genetic gains has been slow to date, due to intensive labor requirements of disease nurseries. The production of a high-throughput genome-wide molecular marker assembly for barley permits use in development of genomic prediction models for traits of economic importance to this crop. A diverse panel consisting of 400 two-row spring barley lines was assembled to focus on Canadian barley breeding programs. The panel was evaluated for FHB and DON content in three environments and over 2 years. Moreover, it was genotyped using an Illumina Infinium High-Throughput Screening (HTS) iSelect custom beadchip array of single nucleotide polymorphic molecular markers (50 K SNP), where over 23 K molecular markers were polymorphic. Genomic prediction has been demonstrated to successfully reduce FHB and DON content in cereals using various statistical models. Herein, we have studied an alternative method based on machine learning and compare it with a statistical approach. The bi-allelic SNPs represented pairs of alleles and were encoded in two ways: as categorical (-1, 0, 1) or using Hardy-Weinberg probability frequencies. This was followed by selecting essential genomic markers for phenotype prediction. Subsequently, a Transformer-based deep learning algorithm was applied to predict FHB and DON. Apart from the Transformer method, a Residual Fully Connected Neural Network (RFCNN) was also applied. Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated to compare true vs. predicted outputs. Models which included all markers generally showed marginal improvement in prediction. Hardy-Weinberg encoding generally improved correlation for FHB (6.9%) and DON (9.6%) for the Transformer network. This study suggests the potential of the Transformer based method as an alternative to the popular BLUP model for genomic prediction of complex traits such as FHB or DON, having performed equally or better than existing machine learning and statistical methods.

Testing methods and statistical models of genomic prediction for quantitative disease resistance to Phytophthora sojae in soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr] germplasm collections

KEY MESSAGE

Genomic prediction of quantitative resistance toward Phytophthora sojae indicated that genomic selection may increase breeding efficiency. Statistical model and marker set had minimal effect on genomic prediction with > 1000 markers. Quantitative disease resistance (QDR) toward Phytophthora sojae in soybean is a complex trait controlled by many small-effect loci throughout the genome. Along with the technical and rate-limiting challenges of phenotyping resistance to a root pathogen, the trait complexity can limit breeding efficiency. However, the application of genomic prediction to traits with complex genetic architecture, such as QDR toward P. sojae, is likely to improve breeding efficiency. We provide a novel example of genomic prediction by measuring QDR to P. sojae in two diverse panels of more than 450 plant introductions (PIs) that had previously been genotyped with the SoySNP50K chip. This research was completed in a collection of diverse germplasm and contributes to both an initial assessment of genomic prediction performance and characterization of the soybean germplasm collection. We tested six statistical models used for genomic prediction including Bayesian Ridge Regression; Bayesian LASSO; Bayes A, B, C; and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. We also tested how the number and distribution of SNPs included in genomic prediction altered predictive ability by varying the number of markers from less than 50 to more than 34,000 SNPs, including SNPs based on sequential sampling, random sampling, or selections from association analyses. Predictive ability was relatively independent of statistical model and marker distribution, with a diminishing return when more than 1000 SNPs were included in genomic prediction. This work estimated relative efficiency per breeding cycle between 0.57 and 0.83, which may improve the genetic gain for P. sojae QDR in soybean breeding programs.

Genetic gains with rapid-cycle genomic selection for combined drought and waterlogging tolerance in tropical maize (Zea mays L.)

Rapid cycle genomic selection (RC-GS) helps to shorten the breeding cycle and reduce the costs of phenotyping, thereby increasing genetic gains in terms of both cost and time. We implemented RC-GS on two multi-parent yellow synthetic (MYS) populations constituted by intermating ten elite lines involved in each population, including four each of drought and waterlogging tolerant donors and two commercial lines, with proven commercial value. Cycle 1 (C₁ ) was constituted based on phenotypic selection and intermating of the top 5% of 500 S₂ families derived from each MYS population, test-crossed and evaluated across moisture regimes. C₁ was advanced to the next two cycles (C₂ and C₃ ) by intermating the top 5% selected individuals with high genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs) for grain yield under drought and waterlogging stress. To estimate genetic gains, population bulks from each cycle were test-crossed and evaluated across locations under different moisture regimes. Results indicated that the realised genetic gain under drought stress was 0.110 t ha^-1 yr^-1 and 0.135 t ha^-1 yr^-1 , respectively, for MYS-1 and MYS-2. The gain was less under waterlogging stress, where MYS-1 showed 0.038 t ha^-1 yr^-1 and MYS-2 reached 0.113 t ha^-1 yr^-1 . Genomic selection for drought and waterlogging tolerance resulted in no yield penalty under optimal moisture conditions. The genetic diversity of the two populations did not change significantly after two cycles of GS, suggesting that RC-GS can be an effective breeding strategy to achieve high genetic gains without losing genetic diversity.

The value of early-stage phenotyping for wheat breeding in the age of genomic selection

Genomic selection using data from an on-going breeding program can improve gain from selection, relative to phenotypic selection, by significantly increasing the number of lines that can be evaluated. The early stages of phenotyping involve few observations and can be quite inaccurate. Genomic selection (GS) could improve selection accuracy and alter resource allocation. Our objectives were (1) to compare the prediction accuracy of GS and phenotyping in stage-1 and stage-2 field evaluations and (2) to assess the value of stage-1 phenotyping for advancing lines to stage-2 testing. We built training populations from 1769 wheat breeding lines that were genotyped and phenotyped for yield, test weight, Fusarium head blight resistance, heading date, and height. The lines were in cohorts, and analyses were done by cohort. Phenotypes or GS estimated breeding values were used to determine the trait value of stage-1 lines, and these values were correlated with their phenotypes from stage-2 trials. This was repeated for stage-2 to stage-3 trials. The prediction accuracy of GS and phenotypes was similar to each other regardless of the amount (0, 50, 100%) of stage-1 data incorporated in the GS model. Ranking of stage-1 lines by GS predictions that used no stage-1 phenotypic data had marginally lower correspondence to stage-2 phenotypic rankings than rankings of stage-1 lines based on phenotypes. Stage-1 lines ranked high by GS had slightly inferior phenotypes in stage-2 trials than lines ranked high by phenotypes. Cost analysis indicated that replacing stage-1 phenotyping with GS would allow nearly three times more stage-1 candidates to be assessed and provide 0.84-2.23 times greater gain from selection. We conclude that GS can complement or replace phenotyping in early stages of phenotyping.

Training Population Design With the Use of Regional Fusarium Head Blight Nurseries to Predict Independent Breeding Lines for FHB Traits

Fusarium head blight (FHB) is a devastating disease in cereals around the world. Because it is quantitatively inherited and technically difficult to reproduce, breeding to increase resistance in wheat germplasm is difficult and slow. Genomic selection (GS) is a form of marker-assisted selection (MAS) that simultaneously estimates all locus, haplotype, or marker effects across the entire genome to calculate genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs). Since its inception, there have been many studies that demonstrate the utility of GS approaches to breeding for disease resistance in crops. In this study, the Uniform Northern (NUS) and Uniform Southern (SUS) soft red winter wheat scab nurseries (a total 452 lines) were evaluated as possible training populations (TP) to predict FHB traits in breeding lines of the UK (University of Kentucky) wheat breeding program. DON was best predicted by the SUS; Fusarium damaged kernels (FDK), FHB rating, and two indices, DSK index and DK index were best predicted by NUS. The highest prediction accuracies were obtained when the NUS and SUS were combined, reaching up to 0.5 for almost all traits except FHB rating. Highest prediction accuracies were obtained with bigger TP sizes (300-400) and there were not significant effects of TP optimization method for all traits, although at small TP size, the PEVmean algorithm worked better than other methods. To select for lines with tolerance to DON accumulation, a primary breeding target for many breeders, we compared selection based on DON BLUES with selection based on DON GEBVs, DSK GEBVs, and DK GEBVs. At selection intensities (SI) of 30-40%, DSK index showed the best performance with a 4-6% increase over direct selection for DON. Our results confirm the usefulness of regional nurseries as a source of lines to predict GEBVs for local breeding programs, and shows that an index that includes DON, together with FDK and FHB rating could be an excellent choice to identify lines with low DON content and an overall improved FHB resistance.

Germplasms, genetics and genomics for better control of disastrous wheat Fusarium head blight

Fusarium head blight (FHB), or scab, for its devastating nature to wheat production and food security, has stimulated worldwide attention. Multidisciplinary efforts have been made to fight against FHB for a long time, but the great progress has been achieved only in the genomics era of the past 20 years, particularly in the areas of resistance gene/QTL discovery, resistance mechanism elucidation and molecular breeding for better resistance. This review includes the following nine main sections, (1) FHB incidence, epidemic and impact, (2) causal Fusarium species, distribution and virulence, (3) types of host resistance to FHB, (4) germplasm exploitation for FHB resistance, (5) genetic control of FHB resistance, (6) fine mapping of Fhb1, Fhb2, Fhb4 and Fhb5, (7) cloning of Fhb1, (8) omics-based gene discovery and resistance mechanism study and (9) breeding for better FHB resistance. The advancements that have been made are outstanding and exciting; however, judged by the complicated nature of resistance to hemi-biotrophic pathogens like Fusarium species and lack of immune germplasm, it is still a long way to go to overcome FHB.

Genome-wide Association Study and Genomic Prediction for Fusarium graminearum Resistance Traits in Nordic Oat (Avena sativa L.)

Fusarium head blight (FHB) and the accumulation of deoxynivalenol (DON) mycotoxin induced by Fusarium graminearum and other Fusarium fungi cause serious problems for oat production in the Nordic region (Scandinavia, Fennoscandia). Besides toxin accumulation, FHB causes reduction in grain yield and in germination capacity. Here, genomic approaches for accelerating breeding efforts against FHB and DON accumulation were studied. Resistance-related traits included DON content, F. graminearum DNA (relative to oat DNA) content (qFUSG) measured with real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR), Fusarium-infected kernels (FIKs) and germination capacity (GC). Plant germplasm used in the study consisted of mostly breeding lines, and additionally, a few cultivars and exotic accessions. Genome-wide association study (GWAS) and genomic prediction, enabling genomic selection (GS) on the resistance-related and collected agronomic traits, were performed. Considerable genetic correlations between resistance-related traits were observed: DON content had a positive correlation (0.60) with qFUSG and a negative correlation (−0.63) with germination capacity. With the material in hand, we were not able to find any significant associations between markers and resistance-related traits. On the other hand, in genomic prediction, some resistance-related traits showed favorable accuracy in fivefold cross-validation (GC = 0.57). Genomic prediction is a promising method and genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs) generated for germination capacity are applicable in oat breeding programs.

Accuracy of genomic selection for grain yield and agronomic traits in soft red winter wheat

BACKGROUND

Genomic selection has the potential to increase genetic gains by using molecular markers as predictors of breeding values of individuals. This study evaluated the accuracy of predictions for grain yield, heading date, plant height, and yield components in soft red winter wheat under different prediction scenarios. Response to selection for grain yield was also compared across different selection strategies- phenotypic, marker-based, genomic, combination of phenotypic and genomic, and random selections.

RESULTS

Genomic selection was implemented through a ridge regression best linear unbiased prediction model in two scenarios- cross-validations and independent predictions. Accuracy for cross-validations was assessed using a diverse panel under different marker number, training population size, relatedness between training and validation populations, and inclusion of fixed effect in the model. The population in the first scenario was then trained and used to predict grain yield of biparental populations for independent validations. Using subsets of significant markers from association mapping increased accuracy by 64-70% for grain yield but resulted in lower accuracy for traits with high heritability such as plant height. Increasing size of training population resulted in an increase in accuracy, with maximum values reached when ~ 60% of the lines were used as a training panel. Predictions using related subpopulations also resulted in higher accuracies. Inclusion of major growth habit genes as fixed effect in the model caused increase in grain yield accuracy under a cross-validation procedure. Independent predictions resulted in accuracy ranging between - 0.14 and 0.43, dependent on the grouping of site-year data for the training and validation populations. Genomic selection was "superior" to marker-based selection in terms of response to selection for yield. Supplementing phenotypic with genomic selection resulted in approximately 10% gain in response compared to using phenotypic selection alone.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results showed the effects of different factors on accuracy for yield and agronomic traits. Among the factors studied, training population size and relatedness between training and validation population had the greatest impact on accuracy. Ultimately, combining phenotypic with genomic selection would be relevant for accelerating genetic gains for yield in winter wheat.

Combining grain yield, protein content and protein quality by multi-trait genomic selection in bread wheat

KEY MESSAGE

Simultaneous genomic selection for grain yield, protein content and dough rheological traits enables the development of resource-use efficient varieties that combine superior yield potential with comparably high end-use quality. Selecting simultaneously for grain yield and baking quality is a major challenge in wheat breeding, and several concepts like grain protein deviations have been developed for shifting the undesirable negative correlation between both traits. The protein quality is, however, not considered in these concepts, although it is an important aspect and might facilitate the selection of genotypes that use available resources more efficiently with respect to the quantity and quality of the final end products. A population of 480 lines from an applied wheat breeding programme that was phenotyped for grain yield, protein content, protein yield and dough rheological traits was thus used to assess the potential of using integrated genomic selection indices to ease selection decisions with regard to the plethora of quality traits. Additionally, the feasibility of achieving a simultaneous genetic improvement in grain yield, protein content and protein quality was investigated to develop more resource-use efficient varieties. Dough rheological traits related to either gluten strength or viscosity were combined in two separate indices, both of which showed a substantially smaller negative trade-off with grain yield than the protein content. Genomic selection indices based on regression deviations for the two latter traits were subsequently extended by the gluten strength or viscosity indices. They revealed a large merit for identifying resource-use efficient genotypes that combine both superior yield potential with comparably high end-use quality. Hence, genomic selection opens up the opportunity for multi-trait selection in early generations, which will most likely increase the efficiency when developing new and improved varieties.

High-throughput phenotyping platforms enhance genomic selection for wheat grain yield across populations and cycles in early stage

Genomic selection (GS) models have been validated for many quantitative traits in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) breeding. However, those models are mostly constrained within the same growing cycle and the extension of GS to the case of across cycles has been a challenge, mainly due to the low predictive accuracy resulting from two factors: reduced genetic relationships between different families and augmented environmental variances between cycles. Using the data collected from diverse field conditions at the International Wheat and Maize Improvement Center, we evaluated GS for grain yield in three elite yield trials across three wheat growing cycles. The objective of this project was to employ the secondary traits, canopy temperature, and green normalized difference vegetation index, which are closely associated with grain yield from high-throughput phenotyping platforms, to improve prediction accuracy for grain yield. The ability to predict grain yield was evaluated reciprocally across three cycles with or without secondary traits. Our results indicate that prediction accuracy increased by an average of 146% for grain yield across cycles with secondary traits. In addition, our results suggest that secondary traits phenotyped during wheat heading and early grain filling stages were optimal for enhancing the prediction accuracy for grain yield.

Training population selection and use of fixed effects to optimize genomic predictions in a historical USA winter wheat panel

KEY MESSAGE

The optimization of training populations and the use of diagnostic markers as fixed effects increase the predictive ability of genomic prediction models in a cooperative wheat breeding panel. Plant breeding programs often have access to a large amount of historical data that is highly unbalanced, particularly across years. This study examined approaches to utilize these data sets as training populations to integrate genomic selection into existing pipelines. We used cross-validation to evaluate predictive ability in an unbalanced data set of 467 winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) genotypes evaluated in the Gulf Atlantic Wheat Nursery from 2008 to 2016. We evaluated the impact of different training population sizes and training population selection methods (Random, Clustering, PEVmean and PEVmean1) on predictive ability. We also evaluated inclusion of markers associated with major genes as fixed effects in prediction models for heading date, plant height, and resistance to powdery mildew (caused by Blumeria graminis f. sp. tritici). Increases in predictive ability as the size of the training population increased were more evident for Random and Clustering training population selection methods than for PEVmean and PEVmean1. The selection methods based on minimization of the prediction error variance (PEV) outperformed the Random and Clustering methods across all the population sizes. Major genes added as fixed effects always improved model predictive ability, with the greatest gains coming from combinations of multiple genes. Maximum predictabilities among all prediction methods were 0.64 for grain yield, 0.56 for test weight, 0.71 for heading date, 0.73 for plant height, and 0.60 for powdery mildew resistance. Our results demonstrate the utility of combining unbalanced phenotypic records with genome-wide SNP marker data for predicting the performance of untested genotypes.

Prospects and Challenges of Applied Genomic Selection-A New Paradigm in Breeding for Grain Yield in Bread Wheat

Genomic selection (GS) has been promising for increasing genetic gains in several species. Therefore, we evaluated the potential integration of GS for grain yield (GY) in bread wheat ( L.) in CIMMYT's elite yield trial nurseries. We observed that the genomic prediction accuracies within nurseries (0.44 and 0.35) were substantially higher than across-nursery accuracies (0.15 and 0.05) for GY evaluated in the bed and flat planting systems, respectively. The accuracies from using only a subset of 251 genotyping-by-sequencing markers were comparable to the accuracies using all 2038 markers. We also used the item-based collaborative filtering approach for incorporating other related traits in predicting GY and observed that it outperformed genomic predictions across nurseries, but was less predictive when trait correlations with GY were low. Furthermore, we compared GS and phenotypic selections (PS) and observed that at a selection intensity of 0.5, GS could select a maximum of 70.9 and 61.5% of the top lines and discard 71.5 and 60.5% of the poor lines selected or discarded by PS within and across nurseries, respectively. Comparisons of GS and pedigree-based predictions revealed that the advantage of GS over the pedigree was moderate in populations without full-sibs. However, GS was less advantageous for within-family selections in elite families with few full-sibs and minimal Mendelian sampling variance. Overall, our results demonstrate the importance of applying GS for GY at the appropriate stage of the breeding cycle, and we speculate that gains can be maximized if it is implemented in early-generation within-family selections.

Comparison of Marker-Based Genomic Estimated Breeding Values and Phenotypic Evaluation for Selection of Bacterial Spot Resistance in Tomato

Bacterial spot affects tomato crops (Solanum lycopersicum) grown under humid conditions. Major genes and quantitative trait loci (QTL) for resistance have been described, and multiple loci from diverse sources need to be combined to improve disease control. We investigated genomic selection (GS) prediction models for resistance to Xanthomonas euvesicatoria and experimentally evaluated the accuracy of these models. The training population consisted of 109 families combining resistance from four sources and directionally selected from a population of 1,100 individuals. The families were evaluated on a plot basis in replicated inoculated trials and genotyped with single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP). We compared the prediction ability of models developed with 14 to 387 SNP. Genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV) were derived using Bayesian least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression (BL) and ridge regression (RR). Evaluations were based on leave-one-out cross validation and on empirical observations in replicated field trials using the next generation of inbred progeny and a hybrid population resulting from selections in the training population. Prediction ability was evaluated based on correlations between GEBV and phenotypes (r_g), percentage of coselection between genomic and phenotypic selection, and relative efficiency of selection (r_g/r_p). Results were similar with BL and RR models. Models using only markers previously identified as significantly associated with resistance but weighted based on GEBV and mixed models with markers associated with resistance treated as fixed effects and markers distributed in the genome treated as random effects offered greater accuracy and a high percentage of coselection. The accuracy of these models to predict the performance of progeny and hybrids exceeded the accuracy of phenotypic selection.

Investigating Drought Tolerance in Chickpea Using Genome-Wide Association Mapping and Genomic Selection Based on Whole-Genome Resequencing Data

Drought tolerance is a complex trait that involves numerous genes. Identifying key causal genes or linked molecular markers can facilitate the fast development of drought tolerant varieties. Using a whole-genome resequencing approach, we sequenced 132 chickpea varieties and advanced breeding lines and found more than 144,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). We measured 13 yield and yield-related traits in three drought-prone environments of Western Australia. The genotypic effects were significant for all traits, and many traits showed highly significant correlations, ranging from 0.83 between grain yield and biomass to -0.67 between seed weight and seed emergence rate. To identify candidate genes, the SNP and trait data were incorporated into the SUPER genome-wide association study (GWAS) model, a modified version of the linear mixed model. We found that several SNPs from auxin-related genes, including auxin efflux carrier protein (PIN3), p-glycoprotein, and nodulin MtN21/EamA-like transporter, were significantly associated with yield and yield-related traits under drought-prone environments. We identified four genetic regions containing SNPs significantly associated with several different traits, which was an indication of pleiotropic effects. We also investigated the possibility of incorporating the GWAS results into a genomic selection (GS) model, which is another approach to deal with complex traits. Compared to using all SNPs, application of the GS model using subsets of SNPs significantly associated with the traits under investigation increased the prediction accuracies of three yield and yield-related traits by more than twofold. This has important implication for implementing GS in plant breeding programs.

Rapid Cycling Genomic Selection in a Multiparental Tropical Maize Population

Genomic selection (GS) increases genetic gain by reducing the length of the selection cycle, as has been exemplified in maize using rapid cycling recombination of biparental populations. However, no results of GS applied to maize multi-parental populations have been reported so far. This study is the first to show realized genetic gains of rapid cycling genomic selection (RCGS) for four recombination cycles in a multi-parental tropical maize population. Eighteen elite tropical maize lines were intercrossed twice, and self-pollinated once, to form the cycle 0 (C0) training population. A total of 1000 ear-to-row C0 families was genotyped with 955,690 genotyping-by-sequencing SNP markers; their testcrosses were phenotyped at four optimal locations in Mexico to form the training population. Individuals from families with the best plant types, maturity, and grain yield were selected and intermated to form RCGS cycle 1 (C1). Predictions of the genotyped individuals forming cycle C1 were made, and the best predicted grain yielders were selected as parents of C2; this was repeated for more cycles (C2, C3, and C4), thereby achieving two cycles per year. Multi-environment trials of individuals from populations C0, C1, C2, C3, and C4, together with four benchmark checks were evaluated at two locations in Mexico. Results indicated that realized grain yield from C1 to C4 reached 0.225 ton ha-1 per cycle, which is equivalent to 0.100 ton ha-1 yr-1 over a 4.5-yr breeding period from the initial cross to the last cycle. Compared with the original 18 parents used to form cycle 0 (C0), genetic diversity narrowed only slightly during the last GS cycles (C3 and C4). Results indicate that, in tropical maize multi-parental breeding populations, RCGS can be an effective breeding strategy for simultaneously conserving genetic diversity and achieving high genetic gains in a short period of time.

Genomic Selection in the Era of Next Generation Sequencing for Complex Traits in Plant Breeding

Genomic selection (GS) is a promising approach exploiting molecular genetic markers to design novel breeding programs and to develop new markers-based models for genetic evaluation. In plant breeding, it provides opportunities to increase genetic gain of complex traits per unit time and cost. The cost-benefit balance was an important consideration for GS to work in crop plants. Availability of genome-wide high-throughput, cost-effective and flexible markers, having low ascertainment bias, suitable for large population size as well for both model and non-model crop species with or without the reference genome sequence was the most important factor for its successful and effective implementation in crop species. These factors were the major limitations to earlier marker systems viz., SSR and array-based, and was unimaginable before the availability of next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies which have provided novel SNP genotyping platforms especially the genotyping by sequencing. These marker technologies have changed the entire scenario of marker applications and made the use of GS a routine work for crop improvement in both model and non-model crop species. The NGS-based genotyping have increased genomic-estimated breeding value prediction accuracies over other established marker platform in cereals and other crop species, and made the dream of GS true in crop breeding. But to harness the true benefits from GS, these marker technologies will be combined with high-throughput phenotyping for achieving the valuable genetic gain from complex traits. Moreover, the continuous decline in sequencing cost will make the WGS feasible and cost effective for GS in near future. Till that time matures the targeted sequencing seems to be more cost-effective option for large scale marker discovery and GS, particularly in case of large and un-decoded genomes.