Multi-trait Genomic Prediction Model Increased the Predictive Ability for Agronomic and Malting Quality Traits in Barley (Hordeum vulgare L.)

Genomic prediction of regional-scale performance in switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) by accounting for genotype-by-environment variation and yield surrogate traits

Switchgrass is a potential crop for bioenergy or carbon capture schemes, but further yield improvements through selective breeding are needed to encourage commercialization. To identify promising switchgrass germplasm for future breeding efforts, we conducted multisite and multitrait genomic prediction with a diversity panel of 630 genotypes from 4 switchgrass subpopulations (Gulf, Midwest, Coastal, and Texas), which were measured for spaced plant biomass yield across 10 sites. Our study focused on the use of genomic prediction to share information among traits and environments. Specifically, we evaluated the predictive ability of cross-validation (CV) schemes using only genetic data and the training set (cross-validation 1: CV1), a subset of the sites (cross-validation 2: CV2), and/or with 2 yield surrogates (flowering time and fall plant height). We found that genotype-by-environment interactions were largely due to the north-south distribution of sites. The genetic correlations between the yield surrogates and the biomass yield were generally positive (mean height r = 0.85; mean flowering time r = 0.45) and did not vary due to subpopulation or growing region (North, Middle, or South). Genomic prediction models had CV predictive abilities of -0.02 for individuals using only genetic data (CV1), but 0.55, 0.69, 0.76, 0.81, and 0.84 for individuals with biomass performance data from 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 sites included in the training data (CV2), respectively. To simulate a resource-limited breeding program, we determined the predictive ability of models provided with the following: 1 site observation of flowering time (0.39); 1 site observation of flowering time and fall height (0.51); 1 site observation of fall height (0.52); 1 site observation of biomass (0.55); and 5 site observations of biomass yield (0.84). The ability to share information at a regional scale is very encouraging, but further research is required to accurately translate spaced plant biomass to commercial-scale sward biomass performance.

Validating genomic predictions for economic traits in purebred U.S. dairy heifers

Most genotypes in the National Cooperator Database now originate from cows, but most previous studies validating genomic predictions have primarily focused on bulls. This study paired official within-breed genomic predicted transmitting ability (GPTA) and parent average (PA) for genotyped heifer calves born between 2019 and 2021 using the August 2021 database with their corresponding performance deviations (PDEV) for 17 different traits. The PDEV data became available when the heifers completed their first lactation and were extracted from the August 2023 database in which at least one PDEV value for those 17 traits existed for each genotyped heifer record. The separate breed analyses included records for 219 Ayrshires (AY), 2,715 Brown Swiss (BS), 1,055 Guernseys (GU), 949,904 Holsteins (HO), and 125,275 Jerseys (JE). These validation cows were heifer calves born between 2019 and 2021. However, due to timing or recording patterns, each trait had missing or incomplete PDEV data, leading to unbalanced distributions of records across traits. The squared accuracy of genomic prediction, or genomic reliability (r2), was divided by the corresponding heritability for each trait, as only the heritable portion of cow records could be predicted, and this reliability varied across different traits and breeds. For HO and JE, the predictive ability of GPTA outperformed PA in predicting cow PDEV for yield, productive life, somatic cell score, fertility, and health traits. The improvement ranged from 33% to 142% compared with the predictive ability of the PA. However, the results for AY, BS, and GU breeds were less consistent due to the smaller number of genotyped heifers. The r2 gains in those breeds were smaller and aligned with the published reliabilities of GPTA. Weighted and unweighted regressions of PDEV on GPTA and PA traits mostly exceeded the expected value of 2.00 when predicting the future trait PDEV using GPTA or PA. The larger number of observations and lower standard error of the weighted regression coefficient prediction in HO and JE breeds contributed to more stable and consistent regression coefficients for all traits except milk fever and heifer livability. Our study suggests that herd owners may experience greater benefits from genomics than originally forecast.

Multi-trait multi-environment genomic prediction of preliminary yield trial in pulse crop

Phenotypic selection of complex traits such as seed yield and protein in the preliminary yield trial (PYT) is often constrained by limited seed availability, resulting in trials with few environments and minimal to no replications. Multi-trait multi-environment enabled genomic prediction (MTME-GP) offers a valuable alternative to predict missing phenotypes of selection candidates for multiple traits and diverse environments. In this study, we assessed the efficiency of MTME-GP for improving seed protein and seed yield in field pea, the top two breeding targets but highly antagonistic traits in pulse crop. We utilized a set of 300 selection candidates in the PYT that virtually represented all possible families of the North Dakota State University field pea breeding program. Selection candidates were evaluated in three diverse, contrasting environments, as indicated by a range of heritability. Using whole- and split-environment cross validation schemes, MTME-GP had higher predictive ability than a standard additive G-BLUP model. Integrating a range of overlapping genotypes in between environments showed improvement on the predictive ability of the MTME-GP model but tends to plateau at 50%-80% training set size. Regardless of the cross-validation scheme, accuracy was among the lowest in stressed environments, presumably due to low heritability for seed protein and yield. This study provided insights into the potential of MTME-GP in a public pulse crop breeding program. The MTME-GP framework can be further improved with more testing environments and integration of additional orthogonal information in the early stages of the breeding pipeline.

Spectral-genomic chain-model approach enhances the wheat yield component prediction under the Mediterranean climate

In light of the changing climate that jeopardizes future food security, genomic selection is emerging as a valuable tool for breeders to enhance genetic gains and introduce high-yielding varieties. However, predicting grain yield is challenging due to the genetic and physiological complexities involved and the effect of genetic-by-environment interactions on prediction accuracy. We utilized a chained model approach to address these challenges, breaking down the complex prediction task into simpler steps. A diversity panel with a narrow phenological range was phenotyped across three Mediterranean environments for various morpho-physiological and yield-related traits. The results indicated that a multi-environment model outperformed a single-environment model in prediction accuracy for most traits. However, prediction accuracy for grain yield was not improved. Thus, in an attempt to ameliorate the grain yield prediction accuracy, we integrated a spectral estimation of spike number, being a major wheat yield component, with genomic data. A machine learning approach was used for spike number estimation from canopy hyperspectral reflectance captured by an unmanned aerial vehicle. The spectral-based estimated spike number was utilized as a secondary trait in a multi-trait genomic selection, significantly improving grain yield prediction accuracy. Moreover, the ability to predict the spike number based on data from previous seasons implies that it could be applied to new trials at various scales, even in small plot sizes. Overall, we demonstrate here that incorporating a novel spectral-genomic chain-model workflow, which utilizes spectral-based phenotypes as a secondary trait, improves the predictive accuracy of wheat grain yield.

Implementing multi-trait genomic selection to improve grain milling quality in oats (Avena sativa L.)

Oats (Avena sativa L.) provide unique nutritional benefits and contribute to sustainable agricultural systems. Breeding high-value oat varieties that meet milling industry standards is crucial for satisfying the demand for oat-based food products. Test weight, thins, and groat percentage are primary traits that define oat milling quality and the final price of food-grade oats. Conventional selection for milling quality is costly and burdensome. Multi-trait genomic selection (MTGS) combines information from genome-wide markers and secondary traits genetically correlated with primary traits to predict breeding values of primary traits on candidate breeding lines. MTGS can improve prediction accuracy and significantly accelerate the rate of genetic gain. In this study, we evaluated different MTGS models that used morphometric grain traits to improve prediction accuracy for primary grain quality traits within the constraints of a breeding program. We evaluated 558 breeding lines from the University of Illinois Oat Breeding Program across 2 years for primary milling traits, test weight, thins, and groat percentage, and secondary grain morphometric traits derived from kernel and groat images. Kernel morphometric traits were genetically correlated with test weight and thins percentage but were uncorrelated with groat percentage. For test weight and thins percentage, the MTGS model that included the kernel morphometric traits in both training and candidate sets outperformed single-trait models by 52% and 59%, respectively. In contrast, MTGS models for groat percentage were not significantly better than the single-trait model. We found that incorporating kernel morphometric traits can improve the genomic selection for test weight and thins percentage.

Review of applications of artificial intelligence (AI) methods in crop research

Sophisticated and modern crop improvement techniques can bridge the gap for feeding the ever-increasing population. Artificial intelligence (AI) refers to the simulation of human intelligence in machines, which refers to the application of computational algorithms, machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques. This is aimed to generalise patterns and relationships from historical data, employing various mathematical optimisation techniques thus making prediction models for facilitating selection of superior genotypes. These techniques are less resource intensive and can solve the problem based on the analysis of large-scale phenotypic datasets. ML for genomic selection (GS) uses high-throughput genotyping technologies to gather genetic information on a large number of markers across the genome. The prediction of GS models is based on the mathematical relation between genotypic and phenotypic data from the training population. ML techniques have emerged as powerful tools for genome editing through analysing large-scale genomic data and facilitating the development of accurate prediction models. Precise phenotyping is a prerequisite to advance crop breeding for solving agricultural production-related issues. ML algorithms can solve this problem through generating predictive models, based on the analysis of large-scale phenotypic datasets. DL models also have the potential reliability of precise phenotyping. This review provides a comprehensive overview on various ML and DL models, their applications, potential to enhance the efficiency, specificity and safety towards advanced crop improvement protocols such as genomic selection, genome editing, along with phenotypic prediction to promote accelerated breeding.

Utilizing genomic prediction to boost hybrid performance in a sweet corn breeding program

Sweet corn breeding programs, like field corn, focus on the development of elite inbred lines to produce commercial hybrids. For this reason, genomic selection models can help the in silico prediction of hybrid crosses from the elite lines, which is hypothesized to improve the test cross scheme, leading to higher genetic gain in a breeding program. This study aimed to explore the potential of implementing genomic selection in a sweet corn breeding program through hybrid prediction in a within-site across-year and across-site framework. A total of 506 hybrids were evaluated in six environments (California, Florida, and Wisconsin, in the years 2020 and 2021). A total of 20 traits from three different groups were measured (plant-, ear-, and flavor-related traits) across the six environments. Eight statistical models were considered for prediction, as the combination of two genomic prediction models (GBLUP and RKHS) with two different kernels (additive and additive + dominance), and in a single- and multi-trait framework. Also, three different cross-validation schemes were tested (CV1, CV0, and CV00). The different models were then compared based on the correlation between the estimated breeding values/total genetic values and phenotypic measurements. Overall, heritabilities and correlations varied among the traits. The models implemented showed good accuracies for trait prediction. The GBLUP implementation outperformed RKHS in all cross-validation schemes and models. Models with additive plus dominance kernels presented a slight improvement over the models with only additive kernels for some of the models examined. In addition, models for within-site across-year and across-site performed better in the CV0 than the CV00 scheme, on average. Hence, GBLUP should be considered as a standard model for sweet corn hybrid prediction. In addition, we found that the implementation of genomic prediction in a sweet corn breeding program presented reliable results, which can improve the testcross stage by identifying the top candidates that will reach advanced field-testing stages.

Genomic prediction for agronomic traits in a diverse Flax (Linum usitatissimum L.) germplasm collection

Breeding programs require exhaustive phenotyping of germplasms, which is time-demanding and expensive. Genomic prediction helps breeders harness the diversity of any collection to bypass phenotyping. Here, we examined the genomic prediction's potential for seed yield and nine agronomic traits using 26,171 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers in a set of 337 flax (Linum usitatissimum L.) germplasm, phenotyped in five environments. We evaluated 14 prediction models and several factors affecting predictive ability based on cross-validation schemes. Models yielded significant variation among predictive ability values across traits for the whole marker set. The ridge regression (RR) model covering additive gene action yielded better predictive ability for most of the traits, whereas it was higher for low heritable traits by models capturing epistatic gene action. Marker subsets based on linkage disequilibrium decay distance gave significantly higher predictive abilities to the whole marker set, but for randomly selected markers, it reached a plateau above 3000 markers. Markers having significant association with traits improved predictive abilities compared to the whole marker set when marker selection was made on the whole population instead of the training set indicating a clear overfitting. The correction for population structure did not increase predictive abilities compared to the whole collection. However, stratified sampling by picking representative genotypes from each cluster improved predictive abilities. The indirect predictive ability for a trait was proportionate to its correlation with other traits. These results will help breeders to select the best models, optimum marker set, and suitable genotype set to perform an indirect selection for quantitative traits in this diverse flax germplasm collection.

Genomic prediction for root and yield traits of barley under a water availability gradient: a case study comparing different spatial adjustments

BACKGROUND

In drought periods, water use efficiency depends on the capacity of roots to extract water from deep soil. A semi-field phenotyping facility (RadiMax) was used to investigate above-ground and root traits in spring barley when grown under a water availability gradient. Above-ground traits included grain yield, grain protein concentration, grain nitrogen removal, and thousand kernel weight. Root traits were obtained through digital images measuring the root length at different depths. Two nearest-neighbor adjustments (M1 and M2) to model spatial variation were used for genetic parameter estimation and genomic prediction (GP). M1 and M2 used (co)variance structures and differed in the distance function to calculate between-neighbor correlations. M2 was the most developed adjustment, as accounted by the Euclidean distance between neighbors.

RESULTS

The estimated heritabilities ([Formula: see text]) ranged from low to medium for root and above-ground traits. The genetic coefficient of variation ([Formula: see text]) ranged from 3.2 to 7.0% for above-ground and 4.7 to 10.4% for root traits, indicating good breeding potential for the measured traits. The highest [Formula: see text] observed for root traits revealed that significant genetic change in root development can be achieved through selection. We studied the genotype-by-water availability interaction, but no relevant interaction effects were detected. GP was assessed using leave-one-line-out (LOO) cross-validation. The predictive ability (PA) estimated as the correlation between phenotypes corrected by fixed effects and genomic estimated breeding values ranged from 0.33 to 0.49 for above-ground and 0.15 to 0.27 for root traits, and no substantial variance inflation in predicted genetic effects was observed. Significant differences in PA were observed in favor of M2.

CONCLUSIONS

The significant [Formula: see text] and the accurate prediction of breeding values for above-ground and root traits revealed that developing genetically superior barley lines with improved root systems is possible. In addition, we found significant spatial variation in the experiment, highlighting the relevance of correctly accounting for spatial effects in statistical models. In this sense, the proposed nearest-neighbor adjustments are flexible approaches in terms of assumptions that can be useful for semi-field or field experiments.

Genomic prediction of seed nutritional traits in biparental families of oat (Avena sativa)

Selection for more nutritious crop plants is an important goal of plant breeding to improve food quality and contribute to human health outcomes. While there are efforts to integrate genomic prediction to accelerate breeding progress, an ongoing challenge is identifying strategies to improve accuracy when predicting within biparental populations in breeding programs. We tested multiple genomic prediction methods for 12 seed fatty acid content traits in oat (Avena sativa L.), as unsaturated fatty acids are a key nutritional trait in oat. Using two well-characterized oat germplasm panels and other biparental families as training populations, we predicted family mean and individual values within families. Genomic prediction of family mean exceeded a mean accuracy of 0.40 and 0.80 using an unrelated and related germplasm panel, respectively, where the related germplasm panel outperformed prediction based on phenotypic means (0.54). Within family prediction accuracy was more variable: training on the related germplasm had higher accuracy than the unrelated panel (0.14-0.16 and 0.05-0.07, respectively), but variability between families was not easily predicted by parent relatedness, segregation of a locus detected by a genome-wide association study in the panel, or other characteristics. When using other families as training populations, prediction accuracies were comparable to the related germplasm panel (0.11-0.23), and families that had half-sib families in the training set had higher prediction accuracy than those that did not. Overall, this work provides an example of genomic prediction of family means and within biparental families for an important nutritional trait and suggests that using related germplasm panels as training populations can be effective.

Multi-trait genomic selection improves the prediction accuracy of end-use quality traits in hard winter wheat

Improvement of end-use quality remains one of the most important goals in hard winter wheat (HWW) breeding. Nevertheless, the evaluation of end-use quality traits is confined to later development generations owing to resource-intensive phenotyping. Genomic selection (GS) has shown promise in facilitating selection for end-use quality; however, lower prediction accuracy (PA) for complex traits remains a challenge in GS implementation. Multi-trait genomic prediction (MTGP) models can improve PA for complex traits by incorporating information on correlated secondary traits, but these models remain to be optimized in HWW. A set of advanced breeding lines from 2015 to 2021 were genotyped with 8725 single-nucleotide polymorphisms and was used to evaluate MTGP to predict various end-use quality traits that are otherwise difficult to phenotype in earlier generations. The MTGP model outperformed the ST model with up to a twofold increase in PA. For instance, PA was improved from 0.38 to 0.75 for bake absorption and from 0.32 to 0.52 for loaf volume. Further, we compared MTGP models by including different combinations of easy-to-score traits as covariates to predict end-use quality traits. Incorporation of simple traits, such as flour protein (FLRPRO) and sedimentation weight value (FLRSDS), substantially improved the PA of MT models. Thus, the rapid low-cost measurement of traits like FLRPRO and FLRSDS can facilitate the use of GP to predict mixograph and baking traits in earlier generations and provide breeders an opportunity for selection on end-use quality traits by culling inferior lines to increase selection accuracy and genetic gains.

A simulation-based assessment of the efficiency of QTL mapping under environment and genotype x environment interaction effects

The objective of this simulation-based study was to assess how genes, environments, and genotype x environment (GxE) interaction affect the quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping efficiency. The simulation software performed 50 samplings of 300 recombinant inbred lines (RILs) from a F2, which were assessed in six environments. The RILs were genotyped for 977 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) and phenotyped for grain yield. The average SNP density was 2 cM. We defined six QTLs and 190 minor genes. The trait heritability ranged from 30 to 80%. We fitted the single QTL model and the multiple QTL model on multiple phenotypes. The environment and complex GxE interaction effects led to a low correlation between the QTL heritability and power. The single- and across-environment analyses allowed all QTLs be declared, with an average power of 28 to 100%. In the across-environment analysis, five QTLs showed average power in the range 46 to 82%. Both models provided a good control of the false positive rate (6%, on average) and a precise localization of the QTLs (bias of 2 cM, on average). The QTL power in each environment has a high positive correlation with the range between QTL genotypes for the sum of the additive, environment, and GxE interaction effects (0.76 to 0.96). The uncertainty about the magnitude and sign of the environment and GxE interaction effects makes QTL mapping in multi-environment trials unpredictable. Unfortunately, this uncertainty has no solution because the geneticist has no control over the magnitude and sign of the environment and GxE interaction effects. However, the single- and across-environment analyses are efficient even under a low correlation between QTL heritability and power.

Multi-Trait Single-Step Genomic Prediction for Milk Yield and Milk Components for Polish Holstein Population

The objective of our study was to evaluate the predictive ability of a multi-trait genomic prediction model that accounts for interactions between marker effects to estimate heritability and genetic correlations of traits including 305-day milk yield, milk fat percentage, milk protein percentage, milk lactose percentage, and milk dry matter percentage in the Polish Holstein Friesian cow population. For this aim, 14,742 SNP genotype records for 586 Polish Holstein Friesian dairy cows from Poland were used. Single-Trait-ssGBLUP (ST) and Multi-Trait-ssGBLUP (MT) methods were used for estimation. We examined 305-day milk yield (MY, kg), milk fat percentage (MF, %), milk protein percentage (MP, %), milk lactose percentage (ML, %), and milk dry matter percentage (MDM, %). The results showed that the highest marker effect rank correlation was found between milk fat percentage and milk dry matter. The weakest marker effect rank correlation was found between ML and all other traits. Obtained accuracies of this study were between 0.770 and 0.882, and 0.773 and 0.876 for MT and ST, respectively, which were acceptable values. All estimated bias values were positive, which is proof of underestimation. The highest heritability value was obtained for MP (0.3029) and the lowest heritability value was calculated for ML (0.2171). Estimated heritability values were low for milk yield and milk composition as expected. The strongest genetic correlation was estimated between MDM and MF (0.4990) and the weakest genetic correlation was estimated between MY and ML (0.001). The genetic relations with milk yield were negative and can be ignored as they were not significant. In conclusion, multi-trait genomic prediction can be more beneficial than single-trait genomic prediction.

Genomic Prediction of Resistance to Tan Spot, Spot Blotch and Septoria Nodorum Blotch in Synthetic Hexaploid Wheat

Genomic prediction combines molecular and phenotypic data in a training population to predict the breeding values of individuals that have only been genotyped. The use of genomic information in breeding programs helps to increase the frequency of favorable alleles in the populations of interest. This study evaluated the performance of BLUP (Best Linear Unbiased Prediction) in predicting resistance to tan spot, spot blotch and Septoria nodorum blotch in synthetic hexaploid wheat. BLUP was implemented in single-trait and multi-trait models with three variations: (1) the pedigree relationship matrix (A-BLUP), (2) the genomic relationship matrix (G-BLUP), and (3) a combination of the two matrices (A+G BLUP). In all three diseases, the A-BLUP model had a lower performance, and the G-BLUP and A+G BLUP were statistically similar (p ≥ 0.05). The prediction accuracy with the single trait was statistically similar (p ≥ 0.05) to the multi-trait accuracy, possibly due to the low correlation of severity between the diseases.

Improved multi-trait prediction of wheat end-product quality traits by integrating NIR-predicted phenotypes

Historically, end-product quality testing has been costly and required large flour samples; therefore, it was generally implemented in the late phases of variety development, imposing a huge cost on the breeding effort and effectiveness. High genetic correlations of end-product quality traits with higher throughput and nondestructive testing technologies, such as near-infrared (NIR), could enable early-stage testing and effective selection of these highly valuable traits in a multi-trait genomic prediction model. We studied the impact on prediction accuracy in genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) of adding NIR-predicted secondary traits for six end-product quality traits (crumb yellowness, water absorption, texture hardness, flour yield, grain protein, flour swelling volume). Bread wheat lines (1,400-1,900) were measured across 8 years (2012-2019) for six end-product quality traits with standard laboratory assays and with NIR, which were combined to generate predicted data for approximately 27,000 lines. All lines were genotyped with the Infinium™ Wheat Barley 40K BeadChip and imputed using exome sequence data. End-product and NIR phenotypes were genetically correlated (0.5-0.83, except for flour swelling volume 0.19). Prediction accuracies of end-product traits ranged between 0.28 and 0.64 and increased by 30% through the inclusion of NIR-predicted data compared to single-trait analysis. There was a high correlation between the multi-trait prediction accuracy and genetic correlations between end-product and NIR-predicted data (0.69-0.77). Our forward prediction validation revealed a gradual increase in prediction accuracy when adding more years to the multi-trait model. Overall, we achieved genomic prediction accuracy at a level that enables selection for end-product quality traits early in the breeding cycle.

Genomic prediction and selection response for grain yield in safflower

In plant breeding programs, multiple traits are recorded in each trial, and the traits are often correlated. Correlated traits can be incorporated into genomic selection models, especially for traits with low heritability, to improve prediction accuracy. In this study, we investigated the genetic correlation between important agronomic traits in safflower. We observed the moderate genetic correlations between grain yield (GY) and plant height (PH, 0.272-0.531), and low correlations between grain yield and days to flowering (DF, -0.157-0.201). A 4%-20% prediction accuracy improvement for grain yield was achieved when plant height was included in both training and validation sets with multivariate models. We further explored the selection responses for grain yield by selecting the top 20% of lines based on different selection indices. Selection responses for grain yield varied across sites. Simultaneous selection for grain yield and seed oil content (OL) showed positive gains across all sites with equal weights for both grain yield and oil content. Combining g×E interaction into genomic selection (GS) led to more balanced selection responses across sites. In conclusion, genomic selection is a valuable breeding tool for breeding high grain yield, oil content, and highly adaptable safflower varieties.

Malting quality and preharvest sprouting traits are genetically correlated in spring malting barley

Malt for craft "all-malt" brewing can have high quality, PHS resistance, and malted in normal timeframes. Canadian style adjunct malt is associated with PHS susceptibility. Expansion of malting barley production into non-traditional growing regions and erratic weather has increased the demand for preharvest sprouting (PHS) resistant, high quality malting barley cultivars. This is hindered by the relatively unknown relationships between PHS resistance and malting quality. Here we present a three-year study of malting quality and germination at different after-ripening durations post physiological maturity. Malting quality traits alpha amylase (AA) and free amino nitrogen (FAN) and germination rate at six days post PM shared a common association with a SNP in HvMKK3 on chromosome 5H in the Seed Dormancy 2 (SD2) region responsible for PHS susceptibility. Soluble protein (SP) and soluble over total protein (S/T) both shared a common association with a marker in the SD2 region. Significant genetic correlations between PHS resistance and the malting quality traits AA, FAN, SP, S/T were detected across and within HvMKK3 allele groups. High adjunct malt quality was related to PHS susceptibility. Selection for PHS resistance led to a correlated response in malting quality traits. Results strongly suggest pleiotropy of HvMKK3 on malting quality traits and that the classic "Canadian-style" malt is caused by a PHS susceptible allele of HvMKK3. PHS susceptibility appears to benefit the production of malt intended for adjunct brewing, while PHS resistance is compatible with all-malt brewing specifications. Here we present our analysis on the effect of combining complexly inherited and correlated traits with contrasting goals to inform breeding practice in malting barley, the general principles of which can be extended to other breeding programs.

Time-series multispectral imaging in soybean for improving biomass and genomic prediction accuracy

Multispectral (MS) imaging enables the measurement of characteristics important for increasing the prediction accuracy of genotypic and phenotypic values for yield-related traits. In this study, we evaluated the potential application of temporal MS imaging for the prediction of aboveground biomass (AGB) in soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.]. Field experiments with 198 accessions of soybean were conducted with four different irrigation levels. Five vegetation indices (VIs) were calculated using MS images from soybean canopies from early vegetative to early reproductive stage. To predict the genotypic values of AGB, VIs at the different growth stages were used as secondary traits in a multitrait genomic prediction. The prediction accuracy of the genotypic values of AGB from MS and genomic data largely outperformed that of the genomic data alone before the flowering stage (90% of accessions did not flower), suggesting that it would be possible to determine cross-combinations based on the predicted genotypic values of AGB. We compared the prediction accuracy of a model using the five VIs and a model using only one VI to predict the phenotypic values of AGB and found that the difference in prediction accuracy decreased over time at all irrigation levels except for the most severe drought. The difference in the most severe drought was not as small as that in the other treatments. Only the prediction accuracy of a model using the five VIs in the most severe droughts gradually increased over time. Therefore, the optimal timing for MS imaging may depend on the irrigation levels.

Multi-trait genomic prediction improves selection accuracy for enhancing seed mineral concentrations in pea

Multi-trait genomic selection (MT-GS) has the potential to improve predictive ability by maximizing the use of information across related genotypes and genetically correlated traits. In this study, we extended the use of sparse phenotyping method into the MT-GS framework by split testing of entries to maximize borrowing of information across genotypes and predict missing phenotypes for targeted traits without additional phenotyping expenditure. Using 300 advanced breeding lines from North Dakota State University (NDSU) pulse breeding program and ∼200 USDA accessions that were evaluated for 10 nutritional traits, our results show that the proposed sparse phenotyping aided MT-GS can further improve predictive ability by >12% across traits compared with univariate (UNI) genomic selection. The proposed strategy departed from the previous reports that weak genetic correlation is a limitation to the advantage of MT-GS over UNI genomic selection, which was evident in the partially balanced phenotyping-enabled MT-GS. Our results point to heritability and genetic correlation between traits as possible metrics to optimize and further improve the estimation of model parameters, and ultimately, prediction performance. Overall, our study offers a new approach to optimize the prediction performance using the MT-GS and further highlight strategy to maximize the efficiency of GS in a plant breeding program. The sparse-testing-aided MT-GS proposed in this study can be further extended to multi-environment, multi-trait GS to improve prediction performance and further reduce the cost of phenotyping and time-consuming data collection process.

Developing high-quality value-added cereals for organic systems in the US Upper Midwest: hard red winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) breeding

There is an increased demand for food-grade grains grown sustainably. Hard red winter wheat has comparative advantages for organic farm rotations due to fall soil cover, weed competition, and grain yields. However, limitations of currently available cultivars such as poor disease resistance, winter hardiness, and baking quality, challenges its adoption and use. Our goal was to develop a participatory hard red winter wheat breeding program for the US Upper Midwest involving farmers, millers, and bakers. Specifically, our goals include (1) an evaluation of genotype-by-environment interaction (GEI) and genotypic stability for both agronomic and quality traits, and (2) the development of on-farm trials as well as baking and sensory evaluations of genotypes to include farmers, millers, and bakers' perspectives in the breeding process. Selection in early generations for diseases and protein content was followed by multi-environment evaluations for agronomic, disease, and quality traits in three locations during five years, on-farm evaluations, baking trials, and sensory evaluations. GEI was substantial for most traits, but no repeatable environmental conditions were significant contributors to GEI making selection for stability a critical trait. Breeding lines had similar performance in on-station and on-farm trials compared to commercial checks, but some breeding lines were more stable than the checks for agronomic, quality traits, and baking performance. These results suggest that stable lines can be developed using a participatory breeding approach under organic management. Crop improvement explicitly targeting sustainable agriculture practices for selection with farm to table participatory perspectives are critical to achieve long-term sustainable crop production. KEY MESSAGE: We describe a hard red winter wheat breeding program focused on developing genotypes adapted to organic systems in the US Upper Midwest for high-end artisan baking quality using participatory approaches.

Combining NDVI and Bacterial Blight Score to Predict Grain Yield in Field Pea

Field pea is the most commonly grown temperate pulse crop, with close to 15 million tons produced globally in 2020. Varieties improved through breeding are important to ensure ongoing improvements in yield and disease resistance. Genomic selection (GS) is a modern breeding approach that could substantially improve the rate of genetic gain for grain yield, and its deployment depends on the prediction accuracy (PA) that can be achieved. In our study, four yield trials representing breeding lines' advancement stages of the breeding program (S0, S1, S2, and S3) were assessed with grain yield, aerial high-throughput phenotyping (normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI), and bacterial blight disease scores (BBSC). Low-to-moderate broad-sense heritability (0.31-0.71) and narrow-sense heritability (0.13-0.71) were observed, as the estimated additive and non-additive genetic components for the three traits varied with the different models fitted. The genetic correlations among the three traits were high, particularly in the S0-S2 stages. NDVI and BBSC were combined to investigate the PA for grain yield by univariate and multivariate GS models, and multivariate models showed higher PA than univariate models in both cross-validation and forward prediction methods. A 6-50% improvement in PA was achieved when multivariate models were deployed. The highest PA was indicated in the forward prediction scenario when the training population consisted of early generation breeding stages with the multivariate models. Both NDVI and BBSC are commonly used traits that could be measured in the early growth stage; however, our study suggested that NDVI is a more useful trait to predict grain yield with high accuracy in the field pea breeding program, especially in diseased trials, through its incorporation into multivariate models.

Multi-Trait Genomic Prediction Models Enhance the Predictive Ability of Grain Trace Elements in Rice

Multi-trait (MT) genomic prediction models enable breeders to save phenotyping resources and increase the prediction accuracy of unobserved target traits by exploiting available information from non-target or auxiliary traits. Our study evaluated different MT models using 250 rice accessions from Asian countries genotyped and phenotyped for grain content of zinc (Zn), iron (Fe), copper (Cu), manganese (Mn), and cadmium (Cd). The predictive performance of MT models compared to a traditional single trait (ST) model was assessed by 1) applying different cross-validation strategies (CV1, CV2, and CV3) inferring varied phenotyping patterns and budgets; 2) accounting for local epistatic effects along with the main additive effect in MT models; and 3) using a selective marker panel composed of trait-associated SNPs in MT models. MT models were not statistically significantly (p < 0.05) superior to ST model under CV1, where no phenotypic information was available for the accessions in the test set. After including phenotypes from auxiliary traits in both training and test sets (MT-CV2) or simply in the test set (MT-CV3), MT models significantly (p < 0.05) outperformed ST model for all the traits. The highest increases in the predictive ability of MT models relative to ST models were 11.1% (Mn), 11.5 (Cd), 33.3% (Fe), 95.2% (Cu) and 126% (Zn). Accounting for the local epistatic effects using a haplotype-based model further improved the predictive ability of MT models by 4.6% (Cu), 3.8% (Zn), and 3.5% (Cd) relative to MT models with only additive effects. The predictive ability of the haplotype-based model was not improved after optimizing the marker panel by only considering the markers associated with the traits. This study first assessed the local epistatic effects and marker optimization strategies in the MT genomic prediction framework and then illustrated the power of the MT model in predicting trace element traits in rice for the effective use of genetic resources to improve the nutritional quality of rice grain.

High accuracy of genome-enabled prediction of belowground and physiological traits in barley seedlings

In plants, the study of belowground traits is gaining momentum due to their importance on yield formation and the uptake of water and nutrients. In several cereal crops, seminal root number and seminal root angle are proxy traits of the root system architecture at the mature stages, which in turn contributes to modulating the uptake of water and nutrients. Along with seminal root number and seminal root angle, experimental evidence indicates that the transpiration rate response to evaporative demand or vapor pressure deficit is a key physiological trait that might be targeted to cope with drought tolerance as the reduction of the water flux to leaves for limiting transpiration rate at high levels of vapor pressure deficit allows to better manage soil moisture. In the present study, we examined the phenotypic diversity of seminal root number, seminal root angle, and transpiration rate at the seedling stage in a panel of 8-way Multiparent Advanced Generation Inter-Crosses lines of winter barley and correlated these traits with grain yield measured in different site-by-season combinations. Second, phenotypic and genotypic data of the Multiparent Advanced Generation Inter-Crosses population were combined to fit and cross-validate different genomic prediction models for these belowground and physiological traits. Genomic prediction models for seminal root number were fitted using threshold and log-normal models, considering these data as ordinal discrete variable and as count data, respectively, while for seminal root angle and transpiration rate, genomic prediction was implemented using models based on extended genomic best linear unbiased predictors. The results presented in this study show that genome-enabled prediction models of seminal root number, seminal root angle, and transpiration rate data have high predictive ability and that the best models investigated in the present study include first-order additive × additive epistatic interaction effects. Our analyses indicate that beyond grain yield, genomic prediction models might be used to predict belowground and physiological traits and pave the way to practical applications for barley improvement.

Multi-trait genomic selection can increase selection accuracy for deoxynivalenol accumulation resulting from fusarium head blight in wheat

Multi-trait genomic prediction (MTGP) can improve selection accuracy for economically valuable 'primary' traits by incorporating data on correlated secondary traits. Resistance to Fusarium head blight (FHB), a fungal disease of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and barley (Hordeum vulgare L.), is evaluated using four genetically correlated traits: incidence (INC), severity (SEV), Fusarium damaged kernels (FDK), and deoxynivalenol content (DON). Both FDK and DON are primary traits; DON evaluation is expensive and usually requires several months for wheat breeders to get results from service laboratories performing the evaluations. We evaluated MTGP for DON using three soft red winter wheat breeding datasets: two diversity panels from the University of Illinois (IL) and Purdue University (PU) and a dataset consisting of 2019-2020 University of Illinois breeding cohorts. For DON, relative to single-trait (ST) genomic prediction, MTGP including phenotypic data for secondary traits on both validation and training sets, resulted in 23.4 and 10.6% higher predictive abilities in IL and PU panels, respectively. The MTGP models were advantageous only when secondary traits were included in both training and validation sets. In addition, MTGP models were more accurate than ST models only when FDK was included, and once FDK was included in the model, adding additional traits hardly improved accuracy. Evaluation of MTGP models across testing cohorts indicated that MTGP could increase accuracy by more than twofold in the early stages. Overall, we show that MTGP can increase selection accuracy for resistance to DON accumulation in wheat provided FDK is evaluated on the selection candidates.

Multi-Trait Multi-Environment Genomic Prediction for End-Use Quality Traits in Winter Wheat

Soft white wheat is a wheat class used in foreign and domestic markets to make various end products requiring specific quality attributes. Due to associated cost, time, and amount of seed needed, phenotyping for the end-use quality trait is delayed until later generations. Previously, we explored the potential of using genomic selection (GS) for selecting superior genotypes earlier in the breeding program. Breeders typically measure multiple traits across various locations, and it opens up the avenue for exploring multi-trait-based GS models. This study's main objective was to explore the potential of using multi-trait GS models for predicting seven different end-use quality traits using cross-validation, independent prediction, and across-location predictions in a wheat breeding program. The population used consisted of 666 soft white wheat genotypes planted for 5 years at two locations in Washington, United States. We optimized and compared the performances of four uni-trait- and multi-trait-based GS models, namely, Bayes B, genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP), multilayer perceptron (MLP), and random forests. The prediction accuracies for multi-trait GS models were 5.5 and 7.9% superior to uni-trait models for the within-environment and across-location predictions. Multi-trait machine and deep learning models performed superior to GBLUP and Bayes B for across-location predictions, but their advantages diminished when the genotype by environment component was included in the model. The highest improvement in prediction accuracy, that is, 35% was obtained for flour protein content with the multi-trait MLP model. This study showed the potential of using multi-trait-based GS models to enhance prediction accuracy by using information from previously phenotyped traits. It would assist in speeding up the breeding cycle time in a cost-friendly manner.

Genomic selection of parents and crosses beyond the native gene pool of a breeding program

Genomic selection has become a valuable tool for selecting cultivar candidates in many plant breeding programs. Genomic selection of elite parents and crossing combinations with germplasm developed outside a breeding program has, however, hardly been explored until now. The aim of this study was to assess the potential of this method for commonly ranking and selecting elite germplasm developed within and beyond a given breeding program. A winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) population consisting of 611 in-house and 87 externally developed lines was used to compare training population compositions and statistical models for genomically predicting baking quality in this framework. Augmenting training populations with lines from other breeding programs had a larger influence on the prediction ability than adding in-house generated lines when aiming to commonly rank both germplasm sets. Exploiting preexisting information of secondary correlated traits resulted likewise in more accurate predictions both in empirical analyses and simulations. Genotyping germplasm developed beyond a given breeding program is moreover a convenient way to clarify its relationships with a breeder's own germplasm because pedigree information is oftentimes not available for this purpose. Genomic predictions can thus support a more informed diversity management, especially when integrating simply to phenotype correlated traits to partly circumvent resource reallocations for a costly phenotyping of germplasm from other programs.

Multitrait machine- and deep-learning models for genomic selection using spectral information in a wheat breeding program

Prediction of breeding values is central to plant breeding and has been revolutionized by the adoption of genomic selection (GS). Use of machine- and deep-learning algorithms applied to complex traits in plants can improve prediction accuracies. Because of the tremendous increase in collected data in breeding programs and the slow rate of genetic gain increase, it is required to explore the potential of artificial intelligence in analyzing the data. The main objectives of this study include optimization of multitrait (MT) machine- and deep-learning models for predicting grain yield and grain protein content in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) using spectral information. This study compares the performance of four machine- and deep-learning-based unitrait (UT) and MT models with traditional genomic best linear unbiased predictor (GBLUP) and Bayesian models. The dataset consisted of 650 recombinant inbred lines (RILs) from a spring wheat breeding program grown for three years (2014-2016), and spectral data were collected at heading and grain filling stages. The MT-GS models performed 0-28.5 and -0.04 to 15% superior to the UT-GS models. Random forest and multilayer perceptron were the best performing machine- and deep-learning models to predict both traits. Four explored Bayesian models gave similar accuracies, which were less than machine- and deep-learning-based models and required increased computational time. Green normalized difference vegetation index (GNDVI) best predicted grain protein content in seven out of the nine MT-GS models. Overall, this study concluded that machine- and deep-learning-based MT-GS models increased prediction accuracy and should be employed in large-scale breeding programs.

Genomic structural equation modelling provides a whole-system approach for the future crop breeding

Using genomic structural equation modelling, this research demonstrates an efficient way to identify genetically correlating traits and provides an effective proxy for multi-trait selection to consider the joint genetic architecture of multiple interacting traits in crop breeding. Breeding crop cultivars with optimal value across multiple traits has been a challenge, as traits may negatively correlate due to pleiotropy or genetic linkage. For example, grain yield and grain protein content correlate negatively with each other in cereal crops. Future crop breeding needs to be based on practical yet accurate evaluation and effective selection of beneficial trait to retain genes with the best agronomic score for multiple traits. Here, we test the framework of whole-system-based approach using structural equation modelling (SEM) to investigate how one trait affects others to guide the optimal selection of a combination of agronomically important traits. Using ten traits and genome-wide SNP profiles from a worldwide barley panel and SEM analysis, we revealed a network of interacting traits, in which tiller number contributes positively to both grain yield and protein content; we further identified common genetic factors affecting multiple traits in the network of interaction. Our method demonstrates an efficient way to identify genetically correlating traits and underlying pleiotropic genetic factors and provides an effective proxy for multi-trait selection within a whole-system framework that considers the joint genetic architecture of multiple interacting traits in crop breeding. Our findings suggest the promise of a whole-system approach to overcome challenges such as the negative correlation of grain yield and protein content to facilitating quantitative and objective breeding decisions in future crop breeding.

Multi-Trait Multi-Environment Genomic Prediction of Agronomic Traits in Advanced Breeding Lines of Winter Wheat

Genomic prediction is a promising approach for accelerating the genetic gain of complex traits in wheat breeding. However, increasing the prediction accuracy (PA) of genomic prediction (GP) models remains a challenge in the successful implementation of this approach. Multivariate models have shown promise when evaluated using diverse panels of unrelated accessions; however, limited information is available on their performance in advanced breeding trials. Here, we used multivariate GP models to predict multiple agronomic traits using 314 advanced and elite breeding lines of winter wheat evaluated in 10 site-year environments. We evaluated a multi-trait (MT) model with two cross-validation schemes representing different breeding scenarios (CV1, prediction of completely unphenotyped lines; and CV2, prediction of partially phenotyped lines for correlated traits). Moreover, extensive data from multi-environment trials (METs) were used to cross-validate a Bayesian multi-trait multi-environment (MTME) model that integrates the analysis of multiple-traits, such as G × E interaction. The MT-CV2 model outperformed all the other models for predicting grain yield with significant improvement in PA over the single-trait (ST-CV1) model. The MTME model performed better for all traits, with average improvement over the ST-CV1 reaching up to 19, 71, 17, 48, and 51% for grain yield, grain protein content, test weight, plant height, and days to heading, respectively. Overall, the empirical analyses elucidate the potential of both the MT-CV2 and MTME models when advanced breeding lines are used as a training population to predict related preliminary breeding lines. Further, we evaluated the practical application of the MTME model in the breeding program to reduce phenotyping cost using a sparse testing design. This showed that complementing METs with GP can substantially enhance resource efficiency. Our results demonstrate that multivariate GS models have a great potential in implementing GS in breeding programs.

A review of deep learning applications for genomic selection

BACKGROUND

Several conventional genomic Bayesian (or no Bayesian) prediction methods have been proposed including the standard additive genetic effect model for which the variance components are estimated with mixed model equations. In recent years, deep learning (DL) methods have been considered in the context of genomic prediction. The DL methods are nonparametric models providing flexibility to adapt to complicated associations between data and output with the ability to adapt to very complex patterns.

MAIN BODY

We review the applications of deep learning (DL) methods in genomic selection (GS) to obtain a meta-picture of GS performance and highlight how these tools can help solve challenging plant breeding problems. We also provide general guidance for the effective use of DL methods including the fundamentals of DL and the requirements for its appropriate use. We discuss the pros and cons of this technique compared to traditional genomic prediction approaches as well as the current trends in DL applications.

CONCLUSIONS

The main requirement for using DL is the quality and sufficiently large training data. Although, based on current literature GS in plant and animal breeding we did not find clear superiority of DL in terms of prediction power compared to conventional genome based prediction models. Nevertheless, there are clear evidences that DL algorithms capture nonlinear patterns more efficiently than conventional genome based. Deep learning algorithms are able to integrate data from different sources as is usually needed in GS assisted breeding and it shows the ability for improving prediction accuracy for large plant breeding data. It is important to apply DL to large training-testing data sets.

Do Spatial Designs Outperform Classic Experimental Designs?

Controlling spatial variation in agricultural field trials is the most important step to compare treatments efficiently and accurately. Spatial variability can be controlled at the experimental design level with the assignment of treatments to experimental units and at the modeling level with the use of spatial corrections and other modeling strategies. The goal of this study was to compare the efficiency of methods used to control spatial variation in a wide range of scenarios using a simulation approach based on real wheat data. Specifically, classic and spatial experimental designs with and without a two-dimensional autoregressive spatial correction were evaluated in scenarios that include differing experimental unit sizes, experiment sizes, relationships among genotypes, genotype by environment interaction levels, and trait heritabilities. Fully replicated designs outperformed partially and unreplicated designs in terms of accuracy; the alpha-lattice incomplete block design was best in all scenarios of the medium-sized experiments. However, in terms of response to selection, partially replicated experiments that evaluate large population sizes were superior in most scenarios. The AR1 $$\times $$ ×  AR1 spatial correction had little benefit in most scenarios except for the medium-sized experiments with the largest experimental unit size and low GE. Overall, the results from this study provide a guide to researchers designing and analyzing large field experiments.

Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online.

Using Genome-Wide Predictions to Assess the Phenotypic Variation of a Barley (Hordeum sp.) Gene Bank Collection for Important Agronomic Traits and Passport Information

Genome-wide predictions are a powerful tool for predicting trait performance. Against this backdrop we aimed to evaluate the potential and limitations of genome-wide predictions to inform the barley collection of the Federal ex situ Genebank for Agricultural and Horticultural Crops with phenotypic data on complex traits including flowering time, plant height, thousand grain weight, as well as on growth habit and row type. We used previously published sequence data, providing information on 306,049 high-quality SNPs for 20,454 barley accessions. The prediction abilities of the two unordered categorical traits row type and growth type as well as the quantitative traits flowering time, plant height and thousand grain weight were investigated using different cross validation scenarios. Our results demonstrate that the unordered categorical traits can be predicted with high precision. In this way genome-wide prediction can be routinely deployed to extract information pertinent to the taxonomic status of gene bank accessions. In addition, the three quantitative traits were also predicted with high precision, thereby increasing the amount of information available for genotyped but not phenotyped accessions. Deeply phenotyped core collections, such as the barley 1,000 core set of the IPK Gatersleben, are a promising training population to calibrate genome-wide prediction models. Consequently, genome-wide predictions can substantially contribute to increase the attractiveness of gene bank collections and help evolve gene banks into bio-digital resource centers.