A clinical prediction model to stratify retinopathy of prematurity risk using postnatal weight gain

The Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health Retinopathy of Prematurity Screening Guidelines (2022): a series of treated infants falling outside the updated criteria

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Screening for retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a core healthcare intervention in premature babies to avoid preventable sight loss. A variety of screening criteria are in place globally for this purpose. The Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health recently updated the United Kingdom ROP screening guidelines (March 2022). A key change was the reduction in the gestational age (GA) to warrant retinal screening (from 32 to 31 weeks).

SUBJECTS/METHODS

In the course of informal national surveillance during guideline development (2017-2022) and soon after, babies under our care falling outside the updated screening criteria who underwent treatment for ROP were identified. A retrospective case review was carried out.

RESULTS

Six babies were identified as having undergone screening and treatment, prior to implementation of the new guidance. Screening and treatment would have been forfeited as per the March 2022 guidelines. All six had numerous systemic risk factors for developing ROP. Specifically, all had documented poor postnatal weight gain.

CONCLUSIONS

We present this case series to bring forth an urgent discussion amongst key stakeholders as to whether the new guidance, as it stands, is safe and fit for purpose.

Prediction models for retinopathy of prematurity occurrence based on artificial neural network

INTRODUCTION

Early prediction and timely treatment are essential for minimizing the risk of visual loss or blindness of retinopathy of prematurity, emphasizing the importance of ROP screening in clinical routine.

OBJECTIVE

To establish predictive models for ROP occurrence based on the risk factors using artificial neural network.

METHODS

A cohort of 591 infants was recruited in this retrospective study. The association between ROP and perinatal factors was analyzed by univariate analysis and multivariable logistic regression. We developed predictive models for ROP screening using back propagation neural network, which was further optimized by applying genetic algorithm method. To assess the predictive performance of the models, the areas under the curve, sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, positive predictive value and accuracy were used to show the performances of the prediction models.

RESULTS

ROP of any stage was found in 193 (32.7%) infants. Twelve risk factors of ROP were selected. Based on these factors, predictive models were built using BP neural network and genetic algorithm-back propagation (GA-BP) neural network. The areas under the curve for prediction models were 0.857, and 0.908 in test, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed predictive models for ROP using artificial neural network. GA-BP neural network exhibited superior predictive ability for ROP when dealing with its non-linear clinical data.

Validation and Feasibility of the Postnatal Growth and Retinopathy of Prematurity Retinal Screening Criteria at a Level IV Tertiary Care Neonatal Intensive Care Unit

OBJECTIVE

Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is detected in preterm infants by standardized screening programs, but in general, they have poor sensitivity. The Postnatal Growth and Retinopathy of Prematurity (G-ROP) algorithm uses weight gain to predict ROP superior reported sensitivity. Our objectives are to (1) independently validate the sensitivity of G-ROP criteria for the detection of ROP in infants born at >28 weeks' gestation in a tertiary care unit in the United States and (2) to calculate the cost savings associated with a potential reduction in examinations.

STUDY DESIGN

This is a retrospective analysis of retinal screening examination data, with post-hoc application of G-ROP criteria to determine whether G-ROP criteria had acceptable sensitivity and specificity in diagnosing Type 1 and Type 2 ROP. All infants born at >28 weeks who were screened by current American Academy of Pediatric Ophthalmologists/American Academy of Pediatrics guidelines at Oklahoma Children's Hospital at the University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center, between 2014 and 2019, were included. Subset analysis of infants screened by second tier criteria was also performed. Potential cost savings were estimated by analyzing frequency of billing codes. And by calculating the number of infants who could have potentially been spared examination.

RESULTS

The G-ROP criteria had 100% sensitivity in detecting type 1 and 87.6% sensitivity in detecting type 2 ROP, which would have reduced infants screened by 50%. All infants in the second tier who would require treatment were detected. A cost saving of 49% was projected.

CONCLUSION

The G-ROP criteria are easy to apply in real-world setting, thus establishing feasibility. The algorithm identified all cases of type 1 ROP; however, some cases of type 2 ROP were not detected. The annual savings in hospital examination cost by using these criteria would be 50%. Therefore, G-ROP criteria can safely be used to screen for ROP and may reduce the number of unnecessary examinations.

KEY POINTS

· The G-ROP screening criteria are safe and predict 100% of treatment warranted ROP.. · Adoption of G-ROP criteria is feasible for level IV NICUs.. · Adoption of G-ROP screening guidelines will result in significant cost savings..

Validation of the East London Retinopathy of Prematurity algorithm to detect treatment-warranted retinopathy of prematurity: a cohort study

AIM

To validate the East London Retinopathy of Prematurity algorithm (EL-ROP) in a cohort of infants at risk of developing retinopathy of prematurity (ROP).

METHODS

The EL-ROP algorithm was applied retrospectively to routinely collected data from two tertiary neonatal units in England on infants eligible for ROP screening. The EL-ROP recommendation, to screen or not, was compared with the development of treatment-warranted ROP (TW-ROP) for each infant. The main outcome measures were (1) EL-ROP's sensitivity for predicting the future development of TW-ROP and (2) potential to reduce ROP screening examinations.

RESULTS

Data from 568 infants were included in the trial. The median (IQR) birth weight (g) was 875 (704 - 1103) and gestational age (weeks) was 27.0 (25.4 - 29.0). Maternal ethnicity was black (33%) and non-black (67%). 58(10%) developed TW-ROP and in every case this was predicted by the EL-ROP algorithm. It's sensitivity was 100% (95% CI 94-100%) specificity: 44% (95% CI 39-48%) positive predictive value: 17% (95%CI 16-18%), negative predictive value: 100%.

CONCLUSIONS

EL-ROP has been validated in a cohort of infants from two tertiary neonatal units in England. Further validation is required before its clinical usefulness can be assessed.

Retinopathy of Prematurity-Targeting Hypoxic and Redox Signaling Pathways

Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a proliferative vascular ailment affecting the retina. It is the main risk factor for visual impairment and blindness in infants and young children worldwide. If left undiagnosed and untreated, it can progress to retinal detachment and severe visual impairment. Geographical variations in ROP epidemiology have emerged over recent decades, attributable to differing levels of care provided to preterm infants across countries and regions. Our understanding of the causes of ROP, screening, diagnosis, treatment, and associated risk factors continues to advance. This review article aims to present the pathophysiological mechanisms of ROP, including its treatment. Specifically, it delves into the latest cutting-edge treatment approaches targeting hypoxia and redox signaling pathways for this condition.

Cord blood transforming growth factor-β-induced as predictive biomarker of retinopathy of prematurity in preterm infants

PURPOSE

To determine whether 14 inflammation-, angiogenesis-, and adhesion-related proteins in cord blood (CB), alone or in combination with conventional perinatal factors, could predict retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) in preterm infants.

METHODS

Data from 111 preterm infants (born at ≤ 32.0 weeks) were retrospectively reviewed. The levels of endoglin, E-selectin, HSP70, IGFBP-3/4, LBP, lipocaline-2, M-CSFR, MIP-1α, pentraxin 3, P-selectin, TGFBI, TGF-β1, and TNFR2 were assessed in stored CB samples collected at birth using ELISA kits. The primary endpoints included severe ROP (≥ stage 3) and type 1 ROP requiring treatment.

RESULTS

ROP was diagnosed in 29 infants (26.1%), among whom 14 (12.6%) had severe ROP and seven (6.3%) had type 1 ROP. Multivariate logistic regression showed that decreased CB TGFBI levels were significantly associated with severe ROP and type 1 ROP after adjusting for gestational age at birth. Stepwise regression analysis allowed to design prediction models with good accuracy, which comprised low CB TGFBI levels and low birth weight (BW) as predictors for severe ROP (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.888), and low CB endoglin levels and low BW as predictors for type 1 ROP (AUC = 0.950). None of the other CB proteins evaluated were found to be associated with severe ROP or type 1 ROP.

CONCLUSIONS

Low CB TGFBI levels are associated with severe ROP and type 1 ROP, independently of gestational age. Moreover, combined predictive models based on CB TGFBI and endoglin levels, along with BW data, may act as good indicators at birth for the neonatal risk of ROP progression.

Comparison of Weight-Gain-Based Prediction Models for Retinopathy of Prematurity in an Australian Population

Purpose

Four weight-gain-based algorithms are compared for the prediction of type 1 ROP in an Australian cohort: the weight, insulin-like growth factor, neonatal retinopathy of prematurity (WINROP) algorithm, the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia Retinopathy of Prematurity (CHOPROP), the Colorado Retinopathy of Prematurity (CO-ROP) algorithm, and the postnatal growth, retinopathy of prematurity (G-ROP) algorithm.

Methods

A four-year retrospective cohort analysis of infants screened for ROP in a tertiary neonatal intensive care unit in Brisbane, Australia. The main outcome measures were sensitivities, specificities, and positive and negative predictive values.

Results

531 infants were included (mean gestational age 28 + 3). 24 infants (4.5%) developed type 1 ROP. The sensitivities, specificities, and negative predictive values, respectively, for type 1 ROP (95% confidence intervals) were for WINROP 83.3% (61.1-93.3%), 52.3% (47.8-56.7%), and 98.4% (96.1-99.4%); for CHOPROP 100% (86.2-100%), 46.0% (41.7-50,3%), and 100% (98.4-100%); for CO-ROP 100% (86.2-100%), 32.0% (28.0%-36.1%), and 100% (98.3-100%); and for G-ROP 100% (86.2-100%), 28.2% (24.5-32.3%), and 100% (97.4-100%). Of the five infants with persistent nontype 1 ROP that underwent treatment, only CO-ROP was able to successfully identify all.

Conclusions

CHOPROP, CO-ROP, and G-ROP performed well in this Australian population. CHOPROP, CO-ROP, and G-ROP would reduce the number of infants requiring examinations by 43.9%, 30.5%, and 26.9%, respectively, compared to current ROP screening guidelines. Weight-gain-based algorithms would be a useful adjunct to the current ROP screening.

Association of Surgical Necrotizing Enterocolitis and Its Timing with Retinopathy of Prematurity

OBJECTIVE

The study aimed to determine the association of surgical necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) and its timing, with the development and timing of retinopathy of prematurity (ROP).

STUDY DESIGN

This was a secondary data analysis of 7,483 preterm infants from the Postnatal Growth and Retinopathy of Prematurity Study. Associations between infants with surgical NEC, early-onset surgical NEC (8-28 days), and late-onset surgical NEC (over 28 days) with ROP were evaluated by using multivariable logistic regression models, controlling for birth weight, gestational age, small for gestational age status, chronic lung disease, intraventricular hemorrhage, hydrocephalus, patent ductus arteriosus, and periventricular leukomalacia.

RESULTS

Three hundred fifty-six (4.8%) infants had surgical NEC, with 56% having early surgical NEC. Infants with surgical NEC had a higher risk of any ROP and severe ROP (adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 2.7; 95% CI: 1.9-3.7) and 2.5 (95% CI: 1.9-3.3), respectively; p < 0.001) compared with infants without surgical NEC. Infants with early surgical NEC were at the highest risk of developing ROP and severe ROP (adjusted OR: 3.1 [95% CI: 2.1-4.8], and 3.3 [95% CI: 2.3-4.7] respectively, p < 0.001). Infants with late surgical NEC were also at increased risk of developing ROP and severe ROP (adjusted OR: 2.1 [95% CI: 1.3-3.4], and 1.9 [95% CI: 1.3-2.8] respectively, p < 0.001) compared with infants without surgical NEC.

CONCLUSION

Infants with surgical NEC, especially early surgical NEC, are at higher risk of ROP and severe ROP.

KEY POINTS

· Infants with surgical NEC are at higher risk of ROP and severe ROP than those without surgical NEC.. · Increased ROP risk is seen in infants with both early- or later onset surgical NEC.. · Early-onset surgical NEC is associated with a higher ROP risk compared with later onset surgical NEC..

Validation of the postnatal growth and retinopathy of prematurity (G-ROP) screening criteria in a Thai cohort

PURPOSE

To validate Postnatal Growth and Retinopathy of Prematurity (G-ROP) criteria for Thai infants.

STUDY DESIGN

A retrospective review of infants receiving ROP screening during 2009-2020.

METHODS

Baseline characteristics, clinical progression and final ROP outcomes were collected. G-ROP was applied to infants who met at least one of the following 6 criteria: birth weight (BW) below 1051 g, gestational age (GA) under 28 weeks, weight gain (WG) less than 120 g during postnatal day 10-19, WG less than 180 g during day 20-29, WG less than 170 g during day 30-39 and hydrocephalus.

RESULTS

A total of 684 infants (boys, 53.4%) were included. Median (IQR) BW was 1200 (960-1470) grams and median GA was 30 (28-32) weeks. Prevalence of ROP was 26.6%, with 28 (4.1%) having type 1, 19 (2.8%) type 2 and, 135 (19.7%) having other ROP. Treatment was performed in 26 infants (3.8%). Sensitivity of G-ROP to include type 1, 2 or treatment-requiring ROP cases was 100% with 36.9% specificity, excluding 235 (34.4%) cases of unnecessary screening. To adjust for our setting of initial eye examination at 4 weeks' postnatal date, the last 2 criteria of G-ROP were replaced by the occurrence of grade 3 or 4 intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH). This modified G-ROP criteria yielded 100% sensitivity, 42.5% specificity and excluded 271 (39.6%) cases of unnecessary screening.

CONCLUSION

G-ROP criteria can be applied to our hospital setting. Occurrence of IVH grade 3 or 4 was proposed as an alternative in modified G-ROP criteria.

Association of inflammatory and angiogenic biomarkers in maternal plasma with retinopathy of prematurity in preterm infants

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether various novel inflammatory and angiogenic biomarkers in maternal plasma, alone or in combination with baseline antenatal factors, could predict retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) in preterm infants.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 140 premature singleton neonates born to women with preterm birth (≤32 weeks) and screened for ROP. Maternal blood obtained at the time of admission was assayed for CRP, endoglin, endostatin, IGFBP-2, IGFBP-3, IL-6, LBP, MMP-8, PlGF, S100A8/A9, TGFBI, and VEGFR-1. The primary outcome measures included severe ROP (stage 3 or higher) and type 1 ROP requiring treatment.

RESULTS

ROP was present in 25.7% (36/140) of the study population, including 20 (14.3%) cases of severe ROP and 14 (10%) with type 1 ROP. Multiple logistic regression analyses revealed significant associations between high concentrations of maternal plasma LBP and severe ROP, and between elevated plasma IL-6 and LBP levels and type 1 ROP (all P < 0.05), while adjusting for confounders (i.e., gestational age [GA] at sampling). Prenatal prediction models for severe ROP and type 1 ROP were developed by combining plasma IL-6 or LBP levels with GA at sampling, which showed good discriminatory power (area under the curve = 0.747 and 0.854, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

IL-6 and LBP in maternal plasma were found to be independently associated with severe ROP and type 1 ROP. Prediction models based on these biomarkers along with GA at sampling may serve as good prenatal indicators for the neonatal risk of ROP progression in women at risk of preterm birth.

ASSESSMENT OF NEONATAL CARE STANDARD BY THE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR RETINOPATHY OF PREMATURITY BASED ON WEIGHT GAIN

Care of extremely premature infants is in constant need for evaluation and progress. WINROP, a predictive model based on weight gain, has been developed to reduce the number of stressful examinations for retinopathy for prematurity. Validation studies of WINROP emphasize the difference of applicability in neonatal units of various practice. The aim of the study was to assess the standard of neonatal care by WINROP. Data on extremely premature infants were collected from medical records and entered in WINROP. High- and low-risk WINROP distribution and retinopathy of prematurity outcomes were analyzed. Fifty-four infants, gestational age ≤28 weeks, were included in the study after exclusion of weight related comorbidities. High risk was noted in 74% (n=40) of infants with 24% (n=13) developing retinopathy of prematurity requiring treatment. In low alarm group, there were 3 cases with severe disease. In conclusion, WINROP is not just a provider of predictive information on the severity of retinopathy of prematurity. High-risk alarm indicates the need of adjustment of nutritional strategies. Infants without pathological growth morbidities who develop severe retinopathy of prematurity in low-risk group point to other risk factors for retinopathy of prematurity to be evaluated and changed in future practice.

A risk scoring model to predict progression of retinopathy of prematurity for Indonesia

INTRODUCTION

Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a serious eye disease in preterm infants. Generally, the progression of this disease can be detected by screening infants regularly. In case of progression, treatment can be instituted to stop the progression. In Indonesia, however, not all infants are screened because the number of pediatric ophthalmologists trained to screen for ROP and provide treatment is limited. Therefore, other methods are required to identify infants at risk of developing severe ROP.

OBJECTIVE

To assess a scoring model's internal and external validity to predict ROP progression in Indonesia.

METHOD

To develop a scoring model and determine its internal validity, we used data on 98 preterm infants with ROP who had undergone one or more serial eye examinations between 2009 and 2014. For external validation, we analyzed data on 62 infants diagnosed with ROP irrespective of the stage between 2017 and 2020. Patients stemmed from one neonatal unit and three eye clinics in Jakarta, Indonesia.

RESULTS

We identified the duration of oxygen supplementation, gestational age, socio-economic status, place of birth, and oxygen saturation monitor setting as risk factors for developing ROP. We developed two models-one based on the duration of supplemental oxygen and one on the setting of the oxygen saturation monitor. The ROP risk and probabilistic models obtained the same sensitivity and specificity for progression to Type 1 ROP. The agreement, determined with the Kappa statistic, between the ROP risk model's suitability and the probabilistic model was excellent. The external validity of the ROP risk model showed 100% sensitivity, 73% specificity, 76% positive predictive value, 100% negative predictive value, positive LR +3.7, negative LR 0, 47% pre-test probability, and 77% post-test probability.

CONCLUSION

The ROP risk scoring model can help to predict which infants with first-stage ROP might show progression to severe ROP and may identify infants who require referral to a pediatric ophthalmologist for treatment.

Evaluation of an Artificial Intelligence System for Retinopathy of Prematurity Screening in Nepal and Mongolia

PURPOSE

To evaluate the performance of a deep learning (DL) algorithm for retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) screening in Nepal and Mongolia.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected clinical data.

PARTICIPANTS

Clinical information and fundus images were obtained from infants in 2 ROP screening programs in Nepal and Mongolia.

METHODS

Fundus images were obtained using the Forus 3nethra neo (Forus Health) in Nepal and the RetCam Portable (Natus Medical, Inc.) in Mongolia. The overall severity of ROP was determined from the medical record using the International Classification of ROP (ICROP). The presence of plus disease was determined independently in each image using a reference standard diagnosis. The Imaging and Informatics for ROP (i-ROP) DL algorithm was trained on images from the RetCam to classify plus disease and to assign a vascular severity score (VSS) from 1 through 9.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and area under the precision-recall curve for the presence of plus disease or type 1 ROP and association between VSS and ICROP disease category.

RESULTS

The prevalence of type 1 ROP was found to be higher in Mongolia (14.0%) than in Nepal (2.2%; P < 0.001) in these data sets. In Mongolia (RetCam images), the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for examination-level plus disease detection was 0.968, and the area under the precision-recall curve was 0.823. In Nepal (Forus images), these values were 0.999 and 0.993, respectively. The ROP VSS was associated with ICROP classification in both datasets (P < 0.001). At the population level, the median VSS was found to be higher in Mongolia (2.7; interquartile range [IQR], 1.3-5.4]) as compared with Nepal (1.9; IQR, 1.2-3.4; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

These data provide preliminary evidence of the effectiveness of the i-ROP DL algorithm for ROP screening in neonatal populations in Nepal and Mongolia using multiple camera systems and are useful for consideration in future clinical implementation of artificial intelligence-based ROP screening in low- and middle-income countries.

Trends in Retinopathy of Prematurity Care in the US 2009-2018: A Nationwide Analysis using National Inpatient Sample

PURPOSE

Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) represents a leading cause of childhood blindness. The purpose of our study was to evaluate incidence, trends in cost and length of hospital stay, and risk factors for ROP using a publicly available population-based dataset, the National Inpatient Sample.

DESIGN

This cross-sectional study analyzed data from 2009 to 2018 using the National Inpatient Sample.

PARTICIPANTS

Premature neonates (n = 717 277) who met the screening criteria for ROP with gestational age of ≤ 30 weeks or birthweight (BW) of ≤ 1500 g were identified.

METHODS

Database analysis.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Incidence, demographics, risk factors for ROP development, trends in cost, and length of stay were evaluated.

RESULTS

In total, incidence of ROP increased from 11% in 2009 to 15% in 2018 (P < 0.001). Multivariate logistic regression model of ROP development showed its associations with female sex (odds ratio [OR], 1.13; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.10-1.17), Hispanic (OR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.03-1.18), and Black (OR, 0.91; 95% CI 0.86-0.96) ethnicity. Neonates with lower BWs, particularly those in the 500- to 999-g subgroup (OR, 2.64; 95% CI, 2.44-2.85) and younger gestational ages, particularly those born between 25 and 28 weeks gestational age (OR, 2.41; 95% CI, 2.25-2.58), had increased risk of developing ROP. Comorbidities associated with the development of ROP were perinatal jaundice (OR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.74-1.94), patent ducts arteriosus (OR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.60-1.75), intraventricular hemorrhage (OR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.35-1.48), perinatal infection (OR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.74-1.94), and respiratory distress syndrome (OR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.01-1.10).

CONCLUSIONS

Retinopathy of prematurity develops in about 1 of 10 premature infants and incidence has been shown to be increasing. Significant risk factors were female sex, Hispanic ethnicity, lower BW, younger gestational age, and systemic comorbidities, including perinatal jaundice, patent ductus arteriosus, intraventricular hemorrhage, perinatal sepsis, and respiratory distress syndrome.

FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S)

Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found after the references.

Daily Oxygen Supplementation and Risk of Retinopathy of Prematurity

PURPOSE

Excessive oxygen supplementation increases risk of retinopathy of prematurity (ROP). While numerous oxygen parameters could be considered when predicting ROP (saturation targets, actual saturation, fraction of inspired oxygen, etc.), complicated measures are impractical as screening criteria. We sought to develop a simple, clinically useful measure of daily oxygen supplementation during ages 0-28 days to improve prediction of ROP.

METHODS

Secondary analysis of two Postnatal Growth and ROP (G-ROP) Study cohorts (G-ROP-1 and G-ROP-2) at 45 hospitals. Infants with a known ROP outcome and complete oxygen data were included. Associations between severe ROP and days on supplemental oxygen (FiO2 > 21%), during ages 0-28 days (DSO28) were assessed, controlling for birth weight (BW) and gestational age (GA). New screening criteria incorporating DSO were developed and compared to current guidelines.

RESULTS

Among 8,949 studied infants, 459 (5.1%) developed type 1 ROP. DSO28 was associated with severe ROP (adjusted-OR 1.05 per day supplemental oxygen, 95%CI 1.03-1.07, p < .0001). The following criteria had 100% sensitivity for type 1 ROP and higher specificity than current guidelines: new BW/GA criteria with DSO (BW<901 g, GA<26 weeks, or DSO >3), 23.4% fewer infants examined; modified G-ROP criteria including DSO, 29.0% fewer infants; original G-ROP criteria, 31.8% fewer infants.

CONCLUSION

In high-level neonatal-care settings, incorporating DSO (a simple measure of oxygen supplementation) into screening criteria improves sensitivity and specificity for type 1 ROP over current BW-GA criteria, but does not perform as well as the validated G-ROP criteria.

Prediction model to predict type 1 retinopathy of prematurity using gestational age and birth weight (PW-ROP)

PURPOSE

To develop a prediction model for type 1 retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) from an Asian population.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included 1043 premature infants who had ROP screening in a tertiary hospital in Hong Kong from year 2006 to 2018. The ROP prediction model was developed by multivariate logistic regression analyses on type 1 ROP. The cut-off value and the corresponding sensitivity and specificity were determined by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. A validation group of 353 infants collected from another tertiary hospital in another region of Hong Kong from year 2014 to 2017 was used for external validation.

RESULTS

There were 1043 infants in the study group. The median gestational age (GA) was 30 weeks and 1 day and median birth weight (BW) was 1286 g. The prediction model required only GA and BW as parameters (prematurity-birth weight ROP (PW-ROP)). The area under curve value was 0.902. The sensitivity and specificity were 87.4% and 79.3%, respectively. Type 1 ROP developed in 0.9%, 17.4% and 50% of infants with PW-ROP scores<0, between 0 and <300, and ≥300 respectively (p<0.001). On external validation, our prediction model correctly predicted 95.8% of type 1 ROP (sensitivity=95.8%, specificity=74.8%) in the validation group.

CONCLUSION

The PW-ROP model is a simple model which could predict type 1 ROP with high sensitivity and specificity. Incorporating this model to ROP examination would help identify infants at risk for ROP treatment.

Retinopathy of Prematurity: Advances in the Screening and Treatment of Retinopathy of Prematurity Using a Single Center Approach

PURPOSE

To focus on the longitudinal evaluation of high-risk infants for the development of retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) at a single tertiary neonatal intensive care unit (NICU), and to evaluate evolving demographics of ROP and the transition of treatment-warranted disease.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

METHODS

A consecutive retrospective review was performed of all infants screened for ROP between 1990 and 2019 at the Jackson Memorial Hospital neonatal intensive care unit. All inborn infants meeting a birth criteria of <32 weeks' gestational age (GA) or a birthweight (BW) of 1500 g were included. Longitudinal demographic, diagnostic, and treatment data were reported.

RESULTS

Between January 1, 1990, and June 20, 2019, a total of 25,567 examinations were performed and 7436 patients were included. Longitudinal trends over 3 decades demonstrated a decreasing incidence of ROP (P < .05). Although the mean BW and GA increased over 3 decades, patients with ROP demonstrated lower BW and GA over time (P < .05). The prevalence of micro-premature infants (as defined by BW <750 g) continues to rise over time. Micro-preemies demonstrated increasing severity of zone and stage grading, plus disease, and propensity to require treatment (P < .05). The rate of progression of ROP to stage 4 and 5 disease has decreased over time, and there has been an associated increased adoption of intravitreal bevacizumab as primary and salvage therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Understanding the evolution of ROP infants and treatment over time is critical in identifying high-risk infants and in reducing the incidence of severe-stage ROP. Micro-prematurity is one of the significant risk factors for treatment-warranted ROP that continues to increase as neonatal care improves. NOTE: Publication of this article is sponsored by the American Ophthalmological Society.

The Use of Postnatal Weight Gain Algorithms to Predict Severe or Type 1 Retinopathy of Prematurity: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

IMPORTANCE

The currently recommended method for screening for retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is binocular indirect ophthalmoscopy, which requires frequent eye examinations entailing a heavy clinical workload. Weight gain-based algorithms have the potential to minimize the need for binocular indirect ophthalmoscopy and have been evaluated in different setups with variable results to predict type 1 or severe ROP.

OBJECTIVE

To synthesize evidence regarding the ability of postnatal weight gain-based algorithms to predict type 1 or severe ROP.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Library databases were searched to identify studies published between January 2000 and August 2021.

STUDY SELECTION

Prospective and retrospective studies evaluating the ability of these algorithms to predict type 1 or severe ROP were included.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Two reviewers independently extracted data. This meta-analysis was performed according to the Cochrane guidelines and reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis of Diagnostic Test Accuracy Studies (PRISMA-DTA) guidelines.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Ability of algorithms to predict type 1 or sever ROP was measured using statistical indices (pooled sensitivity, specificity, and summary area under the receiver operating characteristic curves, as well as pooled negative likelihood ratios and positive likelihood ratios and diagnostic odds ratios).

RESULTS

A total of 61 studies (>37 000 infants) were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled estimates for sensitivity and specificity, respectively, were 0.89 (95% CI, 0.85-0.92) and 0.57 (95% CI, 0.51-0.63) for WINROP (Weight, IGF-1 [insulinlike growth factor 1], Neonatal, ROP), 1.00 (95% CI, 0.88-1.00) and 0.60 (95% CI, 0.15-0.93) for G-ROP (Postnatal Growth and ROP), 0.95 (95% CI, 0.71-0.99) and 0.52 (95% CI, 0.36-0.68) for CHOP ROP (Children's Hospital of Philadelphia ROP), 0.99 (95% CI, 0.73-1.00) and 0.49 (95% CI, 0.03-0.74) for ROPScore, 0.98 (95% CI, 0.94-0.99) and 0.35 (95% CI, 0.22-0.51) for CO-ROP (Colorado ROP). The original PINT (Premature Infants in Need of Transfusion) ROP study reported a sensitivity of 0.98 (95% CI, 0.91-0.99) and a specificity of 0.36 (95% CI, 0.30-0.42). The pooled negative likelihood ratios were 0.19 (95% CI, 0.13-0.27) for WINROP, 0.0 (95% CI, 0.00-0.32) for G-ROP, 0.10 (95% CI, 0.02-0.53) for CHOP ROP, 0.03 (95% CI, 0.00-0.77) for ROPScore, and 0.07 (95% CI, 0.03-0.16) for CO-ROP. The pooled positive likelihood ratios were 2.1 (95% CI, 1.8-2.4) for WINROP, 2.5 (95% CI, 0.7-9.1) for G-ROP, 2.0 (95% CI, 1.5-2.6) for CHOP ROP, 1.9 (95% CI, 1.1-3.3) for ROPScore, and 1.5 (95% CI, 1.2-1.9) for CO-ROP.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This study suggests that weight gain-based algorithms have adequate sensitivity and negative likelihood ratios to provide reasonable certainty in ruling out type 1 ROP or severe ROP. Given the implications of missing even a single case of severe ROP, algorithms with very high sensitivity (close to 100%) and low negative likelihood ratios (close to zero) need to be chosen to safely reduce the number of unnecessary examinations in infants at lower risk of severe ROP.

New evidence on the protector effect of weight gain in retinopathy of prematurity

INTRODUCTION

Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is characterised by insufficient vascular development in the retina, and requires early treatment to avoid visual disability in severe cases. ROP is currently the second leading cause of preventable child blindness in the world.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This was an observational, retrospective, case-control study including 233 preterm infants examined between 1999 and 2019.

RESULTS

Postnatal weight gain in the first 4 weeks of life, birth weight, gestational age, mechanical ventilation, transfusion, presence of sepsis, persistence of arterial ductus, necrotising enterocolitis, intraventricular haemorrhage, or periventricular leukomalacia were found to be significantly different between the ROP groups requiring and not requiring treatment. The mean postnatal weight gain in the ROP group not requiring treatment was 12.75 ± 5.99 g/day, whereas it was 9.50 ± 5.45 g/day in the ROP group requiring treatment. The risk of developing ROP that required treatment decreased with an increase in weight gain. The risk reduction was 2.76%-8.35% in preterm infants gaining 10 g/day, and 7.17%-12.76% in infants gaining 20 g/day.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of developing ROP requiring treatment decreased with increasing weight gain in the first 4 weeks of life. This was applicable in infants with postnatal weight gain ≥14 g/day. However, gestational age, birth weight, time of mechanical ventilation, and comorbidity should be taken into account when evaluating the risk of ROP requiring treatment.

Retrospective comparison between growth and retinopathy of prematurity model versus WINROP model

OBJECTIVE

To compare the weight and insulin-like growth factor-1 in neonatal retinopathy (WINROP) to the growth and retinopathy of prematurity (G-ROP) model in a Portuguese cohort.

DESIGN

Retrospective case series.

METHODS

Clinical records of consecutive infants who underwent retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) screening from April 2012 to May 2019 were retrospectively reviewed. Both WINROP and G-ROP models were accessed for sensitivity and specificity for type 1 ROP. A separate analysis of both algorithms was performed in infants with gestational age (GA) <30 weeks.

RESULTS

Of the 375 infants included in the study, 313 were eligible for G-ROP analysis and 311 for WINROP. In the G-ROP group, 22 infants developed type 1 ROP (sensitivity 90.91%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 70.84%-98.98%). In the WINROP group, 23 infants needed treatment (sensitivity of 86.96%, 95% CI 66.41%-97.22%). Both models reached 100% sensitivity for type 1 ROP if restricted to GA <30 weeks.

CONCLUSIONS

Both models were easy to use and had similar sensitivities. If restricted to GA <30 weeks, both models detected all type 1 ROP.

Complete blood count parameters to predict retinopathy of prematurity: when to evaluate and what do they tell us?

PURPOSE

To evaluate the relationship of novel inflammatory markers neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) with retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) development and requirement for laser photocoagulation (LP) treatment.

METHODS

The charts of infants screened for ROP were reviewed retrospectively, and 120 newborns who had complete blood count (CBC) data in the first 24 hours after delivery (early period) and between 35 and 37th gestational weeks (late period) were included. Study population consisted of 34 infants who required LP for ROP treatment, 52 newborns with ROP that regressed without treatment, and 34 controls who did not developed any ROP stages. Demographics, etiological factors and CBC data including NLR and PLR values were noted. Risk factors for ROP development and treatment requirement were investigated using logistic regression analyses.

RESULTS

Significantly lower NLR was found in ROP cases compared to non-ROP group during late period (p = 0.003), while there was no difference in NLR during early period (p = 0.298). No significant difference was observed in PLR during both early and late periods (p = 0.230 and p = 0.349, respectively). Multivariate analysis revealed daily weight gain as major risk factor for ROP development (p = 0.001; OR: 0.870, 95% CI: 0.799-0.947), and hyperbilirubinemia as an independent risk factor for LP requirement (p = 0.045; OR: 0.204, 95% CI: 0.043-0.966).

CONCLUSION

NLR or PLR does not appear to be predictive risk factors for treatment requirement in cases with ROP. CBC values during first 24 h of life may be misleading; therefore, a late period CBC is recommended to evaluate prognostic factors for ROP development.

Using ROPScore and CHOP ROP for early prediction of retinopathy of prematurity in a Chinese population

PURPOSE

Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a disease that causes vision loss, vision impairment, and blindness, most frequently manifesting among preterm infants. ROPScore and CHOP ROP (Children's Hospital of Philadelphia ROP) are similar scoring models to predict ROP using risk factors such as postnatal weight gain, birth weight (BW), and gestation age (GA). The purpose of this study was to compare the accuracy and difference between using ROPScore and CHOP ROP for the early prediction of ROP.

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted from January 2009 to December 2019 in China. Patients eligible for enrollment included infants admitted to NICU at ≤32 weeks GA or those with ≤1500 g BW. The sensitivity and specificity of ROPScore and CHOP ROP were analyzed, as well as its suitability as an independent predictor of ROP.

RESULTS

Severe ROP was found in 5.0% of preterm infants. The sensitivity and specificity of the ROPScore test at any stage of ROP was 55.8 and 77.8%, respectively. For severe ROP, the sensitivity and specificity was 50 and 87.0%, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the ROPScore for predicting severe ROP was 0.76. This value was significantly higher than the values for birth weight (0.60), gestational age (0.73), and duration of ventilation (0.63), when each was category measured separately. For the CHOP ROP, it correctly predicted infants who developed type 1 ROP (sensitivity, 100%, specificity, 21.4%).

CONCLUSIONS

The CHOP ROP model predicted infants who developed type 1 ROP at a sensitivity of 100% whereas ROPScore had a sensitivity of 55.8%. Therefore, the CHOP ROP model is more suitable for Chinese populations than the ROPScore test.

CLINICAL REGISTRATION NUMBER AND STROBE GUIDELINES

This article was a retrospective cohort study and reported the results of the ROPScore and CHOP ROP algorithms. No results pertaining to interventions on human participants were reported. Thus, registration was not required and this study followed STROBE guidelines.

A Good Way to Reduce Screening for Retinopathy of Prematurity: Development of the ROP Model in a China Preterm Population

Importance: Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a preventable cause of blindness in children. Without treatment, more than 45% of eyes may suffer permanent vision loss. Current ROP screening guidelines, which include a range of birth weights (BWs) and gestational ages (GAs), may require screening many low-risk preemies who might develop severe ROP. Method: All high-risk infants in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) of the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from 2017 to 2021 were included in this retrospective cohort study. Each of the 27 candidate risk factors was evaluated in univariate analysis and adjusted for known risk factors (i.e., GA and BW). The significant results were analyzed in a backward selection multivariate logistic regression model. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and a nomogram were drawn. Results: The study included 2,040 infants who underwent ROP screening. The weight gain rate [OR, 2.65; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.49-1.21 ≤ 12 g/d vs. > 18 g/d; P = 0.001], blood transfusion (OR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.14-3.64; P = 0.017), invasive mechanical ventilation (OR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.15-2.66; P = 0.009) and N-terminal segment of pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) ≥ 25,000 ng/L (OR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.00-2.28; P = 0.048) were four new statistically independent risk factors in addition to GA and BW. The area under the curve (AUC) of the final multivariate model was 0.90 (95% CI, 0.88-0.92; P < 0.001). Conclusions and Relevance: These findings add to our understanding of ROP screening because they include all eligible infants rather than only high-risk infants, as in previous studies. Under the control of BW and GA, low weight gain rate, increased number of blood transfusion, invasive mechanical ventilation and NT-proBNP ≥ 25,000 ng/L were "new" statistically independent risk factors for ROP. The ROP risk can be calculated manually or represented by a nomogram for clinical use.

Risk Calculator for Retinopathy of Prematurity Requiring Treatment

Importance: Vascular delay that occurs early in the development of retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a risk factor that can be compensated by ensuring a good rate of retinal vascularization to avoid ROP that requires treatment. Background: The objective of the present study was to determine the association between ROP that requires treatment and risk factors such as the extent of the temporal avascular area of the retina and the number of days of mechanical ventilation (MV). Design: Observational retrospective case-control study. Participants: Two hundred and twenty-eight premature newborns included in the screening protocol for retinopathy of prematurity. Methods: Subjects underwent retinal examination in the 4 and 6th postnatal weeks. Main Outcome Measures: The temporal avascular area was measured in disc diameters (DD), while the MV time was measured in days of treatment. Results: Patients with a longer MV time had a higher risk of treatment (R 2: 24.7, p < 0.0001; increase in risk of 8.1% for each additional day), as did those who showed greater avascular area (R 2: 24.7, p < 0.0001; increase in risk of 111% for each additional DD). An online calculator system and a table are presented for calculating the risk of ROP requiring treatment as a function of these two risk factors. Conclusions and Relevance: The temporal avascular area of the retina and MV time must be taken into account in the first examination of the newborn to predict the need for ROP treatment.

POOR POSTNATAL WEIGHT GAIN AS A PREDICTOR OF RETINOPATHY OF PREMATURITY

The purpose of this study was to re-evaluate cut-off values used in screening for retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) in Croatia and to propose postnatal weight gain as an additional criterion, based on the Colorado Retinopathy of Prematurity prediction model. Medical records of 267 premature infants from the Zagreb University Hospital Centre that underwent ROP screening between January 2009 and December 2010 were reviewed retrospectively. Collected data included gestational age, birth weight, sex, weekly weight measurements and fundus examination records. Results showed the cut-off values of gestational age (GA) and birth weight (BW) used in Croatia to be appropriate and postnatal weight gain in the first 28 days could be used as an additional criterion on screening in the following way: net weight gain in the first 28 days of ≤932 g for prediction of any form of ROP and of ≤660 g for prediction of severe ROP should be added to the existing criteria of GA (≤32 weeks) and/or BW (≤1500 g). Infants with a non-physiological postnatal weight gain are exception. This is the first Croatian study to propose postnatal weight gain as an additional criterion on ROP screening and requires further validation on a larger sample of Croatian infants.

Postnatal Serum Insulin-Like Growth Factor I and Retinopathy of Prematurity in Latin American Infants

PURPOSE

Identifying at-risk infants for retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is complex in countries with emerging economies as infants that lack conventional risk factors, such as low birth weight (BW) and young gestational age (GA), still go on to develop severe ROP. Potential biomarkers, like serum insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) and slow postnatal weight gain, have been identified as good predictors for ROP in developed countries. We sought to determine the relationship between IGF-1 levels and ROP in two Latin American countries where the burden of disease is still significant.

METHODS

Prospective cohort study of infants in Guadalajara, Mexico and La Plata, Argentina. Filter-paper bloodspot IGF-1 assays were performed weekly from birth until hospital discharge or 40 weeks' postmenstrual age (PMA).

RESULTS

112 infants were studied with a median BW of 1412 g (range 620 g-2390 g) and a median GA of 33 weeks (range 25-37). There was no significant difference in IGF-1 between infants who developed ROP and those who did not.

CONCLUSION

Low IGF-1 was not associated with ROP in these infants. The lack of an association between ROP and IGF-1 in Latin America supports the observation that growth-based predictive models do not perform as well in this setting where more mature babies still develop severe ROP.

Validation of the postnatal growth and retinopathy of prematurity screening criteria

The objective of this study was to validate the generalizability of the Postnatal Growth and Retinopathy of Prematurity Study screening criteria in a new cohort of infants at risk for retinopathy of prematurity (ROP). This retrospective validation study conducted at a single academic medical center included 484 infants at risk for ROP born between January 14, 2014, and December 21, 2019. The primary outcomes evaluated were sensitivity for both type 1 and type 2 ROP, as defined by the Early Treatment of Retinopathy of Prematurity Study, as well as the reduction in total number of infants requiring ROP examinations. Secondary outcomes included the total number of ROP examinations avoided and the potential cost reduction of eliminating these examinations. In a cohort of 484 infants at risk for ROP, the criteria identified 40 of 40 (100%, 95% confidence interval 91.19%-100%) type 1 ROP cases and 27 of 27 (100%, 95% confidence interval 87.23%-100%) type 2 ROP cases while reducing the total number of infants screened by 35.7%. The Postnatal Growth and Retinopathy of Prematurity Study criteria were found in this study to be generalizable to a cohort of infants at a single teaching institution in central Texas. If applied during the studied interval, these criteria could have significantly reduced the number of infants undergoing ROP examinations and maintained excellent sensitivity for type 1 ROP.

POTENTIAL UTILITY OF FOVEAL MORPHOLOGY IN PRETERM INFANTS MEASURED USING HAND-HELD OPTICAL COHERENCE TOMOGRAPHY IN RETINOPATHY OF PREMATURITY SCREENING

PURPOSE

To investigate dynamic foveal morphology with postmenstrual age, in preterm infants with and without retinopathy of prematurity using hand-held optical coherence tomography, adjusting for gestational age (GA) and birthweight (BW).

METHODS

Prospective mixed cross-sectional/longitudinal observational study of 87 participants (23-36 weeks GA; n = 30 with, n = 57 without retinopathy of prematurity) using hand-held optical coherence tomography images (n = 278) acquired between 31 weeks and 44 weeks postmenstrual age excluding treated retinopathy of prematurity. Measurements included foveal width, area, depth, central foveal thickness, maximum slope, and parafoveal retinal thickness at 1,000 µm nasal and temporal to the central fovea.

RESULTS

Retinopathy of prematurity was significantly correlated with only foveal width in either GA or BW adjusted statistical models. In contrast, severity of prematurity (GA, BW) correlated with foveal area (P < 0.005), depth (P ≤ 0.001), and slope (P < 0.01), although central foveal thickness (P = 0.007) and parafoveal retinal thickness (P < 0.001) correlated with GA, but not with BW.

CONCLUSION

Foveal width is independent of GA and BW with potential in retinopathy of prematurity screening assessment using hand-held optical coherence tomography. Foveal morphology could be graded in prematurity during development, with possible implications for future management of preterm infants.

Workforce Shortage for Retinopathy of Prematurity Care and Emerging Role of Telehealth and Artificial Intelligence

Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is the leading cause of childhood blindness in very-low-birthweight and very preterm infants in the United States. With improved survival of smaller babies, more infants are at risk for ROP, yet there is an increasing shortage of providers to screen and treat ROP. Through a literature review of new and emerging technologies, screening criteria, and analysis of a national survey of pediatric ophthalmologists and retinal specialists, the authors found the shortage of ophthalmology workforce for ROP a serious and growing concern. When used appropriately, emerging technologies have the potential to mitigate gaps in the ROP workforce.

Inflammatory and Angiogenic Mediators in Amniotic Fluid Are Associated With the Development of Retinopathy of Prematurity in Preterm Infants

Purpose

To investigate whether elevated levels of inflammatory/angiogenic and growth mediators in amniotic fluid (AF) and the presence of intra-amniotic infection are associated with the occurrence and progression of retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) in preterm infants.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study included 175 premature singleton infants who were born between 23+0 and 32+0 weeks. AF obtained via amniocentesis was cultured, and endoglin, endostatin, insulin-like growth factor-binding protein (IGFBP)-2, IGFBP-3, IGFBP-4, IL-6, IL-8, matrix metalloproteinase-8, matrix metalloproteinase-9, and vascular endothelial growth factor receptor-1 levels were assayed by ELISA. The primary outcome measures included the occurrence of any stage ROP, severe ROP (stage ≥3), and vision-threatening type 1 ROP requiring treatment.

Results

Multiple logistic regression analyses revealed that there are significant associations between elevated AF endoglin levels and ROP occurrence; between elevated AF endoglin, endostatin, and IGFBP-2 levels and severe ROP; and between high AF endoglin, IL-6, and IL-8 levels and vision-threatening ROP requiring treatment, after adjusting for potential postnatal confounders. Using stepwise regression analyses, antenatal prediction models based on these AF biomarkers and prenatal factors were developed for the ROP outcomes, which had good discriminatory power (area under the curves, 0.731-0.863). However, we found that intra-amniotic infection is not associated with ROP occurrence and progression.

Conclusions

Elevated levels of inflammatory (IL-6 and IL-8) and angiogenic (endoglin and IGFBP-2) mediators in the AF, but not the presence of intra-amniotic infection, are independently associated with the occurrence and progression of ROP in preterm infants. These findings suggest that the pathophysiologic events that predispose preterm neonates to ROP may begin before delivery.

Learning Latent Space Representations to Predict Patient Outcomes: Model Development and Validation

Background

Scalable and accurate health outcome prediction using electronic health record (EHR) data has gained much attention in research recently. Previous machine learning models mostly ignore relations between different types of clinical data (ie, laboratory components, International Classification of Diseases codes, and medications).

Objective

This study aimed to model such relations and build predictive models using the EHR data from intensive care units. We developed innovative neural network models and compared them with the widely used logistic regression model and other state-of-the-art neural network models to predict the patient’s mortality using their longitudinal EHR data.

Methods

We built a set of neural network models that we collectively called as long short-term memory (LSTM) outcome prediction using comprehensive feature relations or in short, CLOUT. Our CLOUT models use a correlational neural network model to identify a latent space representation between different types of discrete clinical features during a patient’s encounter and integrate the latent representation into an LSTM-based predictive model framework. In addition, we designed an ablation experiment to identify risk factors from our CLOUT models. Using physicians’ input as the gold standard, we compared the risk factors identified by both CLOUT and logistic regression models.

Results

Experiments on the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III dataset (selected patient population: 7537) show that CLOUT (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve=0.89) has surpassed logistic regression (0.82) and other baseline NN models (<0.86). In addition, physicians’ agreement with the CLOUT-derived risk factor rankings was statistically significantly higher than the agreement with the logistic regression model.

Conclusions

Our results support the applicability of CLOUT for real-world clinical use in identifying patients at high risk of mortality.

Immune and Inflammatory Proteins in Cord Blood as Predictive Biomarkers of Retinopathy of Prematurity in Preterm Infants

Purpose

To determine whether elevated levels of immune/inflammatory proteins in cord blood, alone or in combination with conventional clinical parameters, can predict the occurrence and progression of retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) in preterm infants.

Methods

This was a retrospective cohort study of 110 premature singleton infants who were born at ≤32.0 weeks. Cord plasma at birth was assayed for interleukin-6, C3a, C5a, matrix metalloproteinase-2 (MMP-2), MMP-9, tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase-1, macrophage colony-stimulating factor, endostatin, a proliferation-inducing ligand, insulin-like growth factor-binding protein-1 (IGFBP-1), IGFBP-2, and calcium-binding protein A8/A9 complex levels. The primary outcome measures were the occurrence of any stage ROP, severe ROP (>stage 3), and vision-threatening type 1 ROP requiring laser treatment.

Results

ROP was diagnosed in 30 of 110 infants (27.3%), including 14 (12.7%) with severe ROP. Laser treatment was performed on 7 infants (6.4%). Multiple logistic regression analyses indicated that elevated levels of cord plasma IL-6 were significantly associated with severe ROP, whereas elevated levels of cord plasma C5a were significantly associated with ROP laser treatments. However, none of the proteins measured in the cord plasma were associated with ROP occurrence. Using a stepwise regression procedure, we developed a combined prediction model, which included high cord plasma IL-6 levels and low birth weight for severe ROP (area under the curve [AUC], 0.840), and high cord plasma C5a levels and low birth weight for laser treatment (AUC, 0.884).

Conclusions

Elevated levels of cord plasma IL-6 and C5a could be used as independent markers to predict severe ROP and laser treatment, respectively, with combined models predicting ROP progression with good accuracy.

Prediction of severe retinopathy of prematurity using the weight gain, insulin-like growth factor 1, and neonatal retinopathy of prematurity algorithm in a Japanese population of preterm infants

PURPOSE

To retrospectively investigate the sensitivity and specificity of weight gain, insulin-like growth factor 1, and neonatal retinopathy of prematurity (WINROP) algorithm for the prediction of severe retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) in a Japanese population of preterm infants. The WINROP algorithm is a tool based on postnatal weight gain.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

METHODS

The medical records of preterm infants born between January 2011 and March 2017 were retrospectively reviewed. Infants born after 33 weeks of gestation were excluded based on the indications of the WINROP algorithm. Postnatal weight was recorded weekly on the WINROP system until postmenstrual week 36. The sensitivity and specificity of the WINROP algorithm were analyzed.

RESULTS

In total, 278 infants were included in this study. Based on the WINROP algorithm 110 of these infants were predicted to be at low risk for developing severe ROP and 105 did not develop severe ROP. Based on the WINROP algorithm 168 infants were predicted to be at high risk for developing severe ROP　and 27 developed severe ROP. Thus, the sensitivity of the WINROP algorithm was 84.4% and the specificity 42.7%.

CONCLUSION

The WINROP algorithm could be used for preterm infants (gestational age of <28 weeks) without a complicated hospital course. Modification of the algorithm will improve its sensitivity and specificity for the Japanese population.

Screening and novel therapies for retinopathy of prematurity - A review

With current screening for sight threatening retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) <10% of screened infants need treatment. Prediction models based on birth characteristics, postnatal weight gain and other factors have been developed to reduce examinations in low-risk infants. A model based on advanced statistics using data from >7000 infants registered in the Swedish ROP registry is being developed. Based on birth characteristics only, it appears to predict total risk of ROP-treatment as well as models including weight measurements. Treatment risk peaked at 12 weeks of age. Laser therapy is the method of choice for severe ROP. Anti-VEGF therapies are implemented worldwide despite insufficient knowledge of choice of drug, dosage and long term systemic effects. Prevention of ROP may be achieved through oxygen control and provision of the mother's breastmilk. Other interventions such as supplementation with long chain polyunsaturated fatty acids and preservation of fetal haemoglobin are investigated.

Association of Weight Gain Acceleration With Risk of Retinopathy of Prematurity

Importance

Early slow postnatal weight gain, a surrogate for low insulinlike growth factor 1 (IGF-1) levels, is predictive of retinopathy of prematurity (ROP). While low IGF-1 levels inhibit retinal vessel growth, a later rise theoretically activates vascular endothelial growth factor, causing neovascularization. Rate of rise of IGF-1 level is represented by weight gain acceleration (WGA) and may be used to evaluate risk of ROP.

Objective

To evaluate whether faster WGA during a later postnatal period is associated with a higher, rather than lower, risk of severe ROP.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This secondary analysis of data from the Postnatal Growth and Retinopathy of Prematurity (G-ROP) study included 6835 infants undergoing ROP examinations from 29 hospitals in North America from January 2006 to June 2012. Data were analyzed from September to December 2016.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Early weight gain rate (WGR) during 29 to 33 weeks' postmenstrual age and late WGA during 34 to 38 weeks' postmenstrual age were determined using linear regression of daily weight measurements and changes in daily weight measurements, respectively. The primary outcome was the association of late WGA with severe ROP.

Results

Of the 6835 included infants, the mean (SD) birth weight was 1086 (357) g, and the mean (SD) gestational age was 27.9 (2.5) weeks. Risk of severe ROP increased with increasing late WGA up to about the 80th percentile of WGA. After adjusting for birth weight and gestational age, among infants in the lowest early WGR tertile, there was no association of late WGA with severe ROP, and among infants in the moderate and highest early WGR tertiles, the moderate WGA tertiles had the highest risk of ROP (moderate early WGR tertile: adjusted odds ratio, 1.38; 95% CI, 0.98-1.94; highest early WGR tertile: adjusted odds ratio, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.02-2.60).

Conclusions and Relevance

Although much attention has been paid to the association of slow weight gain with ROP, the association may be more complex than appreciated. These findings suggest that low early WGR is associated with severe ROP regardless of subsequent WGA, but if early WGR is moderate or high, subsequent rapid rises in WGR are associated with increasing risk of severe ROP. If validated in additional cohorts, this finding may affect potential therapies, such as the timing of IGF-1 supplementation.

Risk of development of treated retinopathy of prematurity in very low birth weight infants

OBJECTIVE

Quantify the risk of treatment for retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) among infants meeting current U.S. screening guidelines.

STUDY DESIGN

Among infants ≤1500 g birth weight or ≤30 weeks gestation screened for ROP from 2006-2015, we developed a risk prediction model to identify infants treated for ROP. We applied our model to a separate infant cohort discharged in 2016.

RESULT

Seventy-five thousand eight hundred and twenty one infants met inclusion criteria; 2306 (3%) were treated for ROP. Infants with several risk factor combinations (no ventilator support or oxygen on postnatal day 28, no history of necrotizing enterocolitis, and no intraventricular hemorrhage) were at low risk of ROP. Applied to 6127 infants discharged in 2016, our model had 97.9% sensitivity, 63.3% specificity, positive predictive value of 4.0%, and negative predictive value of 99.9%.

CONCLUSION

Large numbers of infants at low risk of developing ROP are required to undergo screening. Refining current ROP guidelines may reduce unnecessary examinations.

Development of Modified Screening Criteria for Retinopathy of Prematurity: Primary Results From the Postnatal Growth and Retinopathy of Prematurity Study

Importance

Current retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) guidelines, which are based on studies of high-risk infants and expert opinion, have low specificity for disease requiring treatment. Postnatal weight gain-based models improve specificity but have been limited by complexity and small development cohorts, which results in model overfitting and resultant decreased sensitivity in validation studies.

Objective

To develop a birth weight (BW), gestational age (GA), and weight gain (WG) prediction model using data from a broad-risk cohort of premature infants.

Design, Setting, and Participants

The Postnatal Growth and ROP Study was a retrospective multicenter cohort study conducted in 29 hospitals in the United States and Canada from 2006 to 2012 that included 7483 premature infants at risk for ROP with a known ROP outcome. A hybrid modeling approach was used that combined BW/GA criteria, weight comparison with expected growth from infants without ROP, multiple growth-interval assessments, consideration of nonphysiological WG, and user-friendly screening criteria. Numerous BW/GA levels, postnatal age periods, time intervals, and WG percentile thresholds were evaluated to identify the most robust parameters.

Main Outcome and Measures

Sensitivity for Early Treatment of ROP Study type 1 ROP and potential reduction in infants who require examinations.

Results

Of 7483 infants, the median (SD) BW was 1099 (359) g, the median GA was 28 weeks (range, 22-35), 3575 (47.8%) were female, 3615 (48.4%) were white, 2310 (30.9%) were black, 233 (3.1%) were Asian, 93 (1.2%) were Pacific Islander, and 40 (0.5%) were American Indian/Alaskan Native. Infants who met any of 6 criteria would undergo examinations: (1) a GA of younger than 28 weeks; (2) a BW of less than 1051 g; a WG of less than 120 g, 180 g, or 170 g during ages 10 to 19, 20 to 29, or 30 to 39 days, respectively; or hydrocephalus. These criteria predicted 459 of 459 (100%) type 1 (sensitivity, 100%; 95% CI, 99.2%-100%), 524 of 524 (100%) treated, and 466 of 472 (98.7%) type 2 cases while reducing the number of infants who required examinations by 2269 (30.3%).

Conclusions and Relevance

This cohort study, broadly representative of infants who are undergoing ROP examinations, provides evidence-based screening criteria. With validation, the Postnatal Growth and ROP Study criteria could be incorporated into ROP screening guidelines to reduce the number of infants who require examinations in North America.

Postnatal weight gain and retinopathy of prematurity

Infants meeting retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) screening guidelines based on birth weight and gestational age undergo serial examinations by ophthalmologists for detection and treatment. However, less than 10% require treatment, and less than half develop ROP. Slow postnatal weight gain is highly predictive of ROP, and investigators have incorporated weight gain measures to develop more specific criteria for ROP screening. Such clinical prediction model use involves a large development study, validation studies specific to the target populations, and ongoing impact surveillance, with adjustment as necessary. Of the many weight gain inclusive prediction models intended to improve the precision of ROP screening, the Postnatal Growth and ROP (G-ROP) modified screening criteria were developed using the largest dataset and may provide the most robust model for clinical use. A recently completed G-ROP validation study will evaluate the generalizability of these modified criteria prior to clinical use.

Children's Hospital of Philadelphia Score to predict severe retinopathy in Indian preterm infants

BACKGROUND

Retinopathy of Prematurity (ROP) screenings are expensive and entail heavy workload. Predictive models using postnatal weight gain reduces the number of ophthalmological examinations. The objective was to validate Children's Hospital of Philadelphia (CHOP) score to predict severe ROP in resource limited settings.

METHODS

Prior to ophthalmic examination, the CHOP score was calculated to predict severe ROP (point estimate = 0.014) in 191 preterm infants. Cut-off point estimate, most suitable in resource limited settings was assessed.

RESULTS

CHOP Score cutoff point (0.014) showed 67% sensitivity, 75% specificity. With CHOP score cut-off point (0.010), the corresponding values were 100% sensitivity, 51% specificity, PPV 12% and NPV 100%.

CONCLUSION

CHOP Score (0.014) is a poor tool to predict the onset of severe ROP. However, CHOP Score (0.010) is a promising tool to predict the onset of severe ROP and reduces the need for ophthalmological examinations by 50% in resource limited settings.

Temporal Profile of Retinopathy of Prematurity in Extremely Premature Compared to Premature Infants

PURPOSE

To compare the time course of retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) in premature (≥ 28 to 34 weeks' gestational age) and extremely premature (< 28 weeks' gestational age) infants.

METHODS

This study was a retrospective single-center chart review that included 582 eyes (122 premature, 464 extremely premature) of 299 infants (65 premature, 234 extremely premature) diagnosed as having ROP who were born between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2015. Data collected were analyzed with shared frailty models, chi-square, and Fisher's exact tests.

RESULTS

Extremely premature infants were diagnosed as having ROP earlier than premature infants at 33.6 weeks (95% CI [confidence interval]: 33.4 to 33.9) versus 36.0 weeks (95% CI: 34.7 to 36.4, P < .0001). The time from diagnosis to spontaneous regression was more than 4 weeks longer for extremely premature infants than premature infants with stage 1 ROP (82.0 vs 50.0 days, P < .0001), and more than 6 weeks longer for extremely premature infants than premature infants with stage 2 ROP (99 vs 55 days, P < .0001). Extremely premature infants had more bilateral ROP (96.6% vs 87.1%, P < .01) and were three times more likely to require treatment than premature infants (29.7% vs 9.9%, P < .0001). On average, infants who required treatment weighed 137 grams less at birth (P < .0001) and gained 37.7 grams less per week than infants who underwent spontaneous regression (P < .0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Extremely premature infants developed ROP earlier, had more bilateral ROP, took longer to achieve spontaneous regression, and required treatment more often than premature infants. Infants who required treatment had a lower birth weight and rate of weight gain than infants who underwent spontaneous regression. [J Pediatr Ophthalmol Strabismus. 2019;56(2):116-123.].

Implementation of a Clinical Prediction Model Using Daily Postnatal Weight Gain, Birth Weight, and Gestational Age to Risk Stratify ROP

PURPOSE

To develop a simple prognostic model using postnatal weight gain, birth weight, and gestational age to identify infants at risk for developing severe retinopathy of prematurity (ROP).

METHODS

Medical records from two tertiary referral centers with the diagnosis code "Retinopathy of Prematurity" were evaluated. Those with a birth weight of 1,500 g or less, gestational age of 30 weeks or younger, and unstable clinical courses were included. Multivariate regression analysis was applied to transform three independent variables into a growth rate algorithm.

RESULTS

Seventeen of 191 neonates had severe ROP. Weight gain of at least 23 g/d was determined as a protective cut-off value against development of severe ROP. This value maintained 100% sensitivity with 62% specificity to ensure all neonates who require treatment would be captured. Overall, the Omaha (OMA)-ROP model calculated a 58% reduction in eye examinations within the cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Inclusion of postnatal growth rate in risk stratification will minimize the number of eye examinations performed without increasing adverse visual outcomes. The OMA-ROP model predicts neonates who gain less than 23 g/d are at higher risk for developing severe ROP. Although promising, larger cohort studies may be necessary to validate and implement new screening practices among preterm infants. [J Pediatr Ophthalmol Strabismus. 2018;55(5):326-334.].

The ROPScore as a Screening Algorithm for Predicting Retinopathy of Prematurity in a Brazilian Population

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the accuracy of the ROPScore algorithm as a predictor of retinopathy of prematurity (ROP).

METHODS

A prospective cohort of 220 preterm infants with a birth weight ≤1500 g and/or gestational age ≤32 weeks was included. The ROPScore was determined in the sixth week of life in 181 infants who then survived until a corrected gestational age of 45 weeks. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) of the algorithm were analyzed.

RESULTS

ROP was found in 17.6% of the preterm infants. The sensitivity of this test for any stage of ROP was 87.5%, while that for severe ROP was 95.4% (21/22 cases). The PPV and NPV were 59.6% and 97%, respectively, for any stage of ROP and 44.7% and 99.25%, respectively, for severe ROP. The ROPScore could therefore hypothetically reduce the number of ophthalmologic examinations required to detect ROP by 71.8%.

CONCLUSION

The ROPScore is a useful screening tool for ROP and may optimize examinations and especially the identification of severe ROP.

Incidence and risk factors for retinopathy of prematurity: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Advances in neonatal care promoted increased survival rates of preterm infants, with a consequent increase in the number of children affected by retinopathy of prematurity (ROP). This study estimates the incidence of ROP and evaluates potential risk factors associated.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study of preterm infants born in a tertiary neonatal intensive care unit was conducted from March 2005 to August 2015. Six hundred and thirty-nine newborns were included based on the following criteria: infants born with less than 32 weeks' gestation or birth weight below 1500 g; or neonates born with 32-37 weeks' gestation or birth weight above 1500 g and any of the following associated: multiple gestation, respiratory distress syndrome, sepsis, blood transfusions or intraventricular hemorrhage. Neonates were followed up until disease resolution or until treatment criteria was achieved.

RESULTS

A total of 602 newborns were evaluated after applying the exclusion criteria. Mean gestational age was 30.7 ± 2.5 weeks. The incidences of ROP at any stage and of type 1 prethreshold ROP were 33.9 and 5.0% respectively. Logistic regression analysis revealed that risk factors associated with ROP at any stage were extremely low birth weight (ELBW) (odds ratio [OR] = 3.10; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]:1.73-5.55), pulmonary diseases (OR = 2.49; 95% CI: 1.35-4.59), intraventricular hemorrhage (OR = 2.17; 95% CI: 1.10-4.30), and low gestational age (OR = 0.81; 95% CI: 0.73-0.91). The main risk factors associated with type 1 prethreshold ROP were pulmonary diseases (OR = 9.58; 95% CI: 1.27-72.04) and ELBW (OR = 3.66; 95% CI: 1.67-8.00).

CONCLUSION

This study found a significant incidence of ROP (33.9%) in the studied population, and highlighted pulmonary diseases as a significant risk factor for type 1 prethreshold ROP.

Retinopathy of prematurity: a review of risk factors and their clinical significance

Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a retinal vasoproliferative disease that affects premature infants. Despite improvements in neonatal care and management guidelines, ROP remains a leading cause of childhood blindness worldwide. Current screening guidelines are primarily based on two risk factors: birth weight and gestational age; however, many investigators have suggested other risk factors, including maternal factors, prenatal and perinatal factors, demographics, medical interventions, comorbidities of prematurity, nutrition, and genetic factors. We review the existing literature addressing various possible ROP risk factors. Although there have been contradictory reports, and the risk may vary between different populations, understanding ROP risk factors is essential to develop predictive models, to gain insights into pathophysiology of retinal vascular diseases and diseases of prematurity, and to determine future directions in management of and research in ROP.