Pandemic influenza vaccine & narcolepsy: simulations on the potential impact of bias

Interpretation of vaccine associated neurological adverse events: a methodological and historical review

As a result of significant recent scientific investment, the range of vaccines available for COVID-19 prevention continues to expand and uptake is increasing globally. Although initial trial safety data have been generally reassuring, a number of adverse events, including vaccine induced thrombosis and thrombocytopenia (VITT), have come to light which have the potential to undermine the success of the vaccination program. However, it can be difficult to interpret available data and put these into context and to communicate this effectively. In this review, we discuss contemporary methodologies employed to investigate possible associations between vaccination and adverse neurological outcomes and why determining causality can be challenging. We demonstrate these issues by discussing relevant historical exemplars and explore the relevance for the current pandemic and vaccination program. We also discuss challenges in understanding and communicating such risks to clinicians and the general population within the context of the 'infodemic' facilitated by the Internet and other media.

Sleep disorders and the hypothalamus

As early as the 1920s, pathological studies of encephalitis lethargica allowed Von Economo to correctly identify hypothalamic damage as crucial for the profound associated sleep-related symptoms that helped define the condition. Only over the last 3 decades, however, has the key role of the hypothalamus in sleep-wake regulation become increasingly recognized. As a consequence, a close relation between abnormal sleep symptomatology and hypothalamic pathology is now widely accepted for a variety of medical disorders. Narcolepsy is discussed in some detail as the cardinal primary sleep disorder that is caused directly and specifically by hypothalamic pathology, most notably destruction of hypocretin (orexin)-containing neurons. Thereafter, various conditions are described that most likely result from hypothalamic damage, in part at least, producing a clinical picture resembling (symptomatic) narcolepsy. Kleine-Levin syndrome is a rare primary sleep disorder with intermittent symptoms, highly suggestive of hypothalamic involvement but probably reflecting a wider pathophysiology. ROHHAD (rapid-onset obesity with hypothalamic dysfunction, hypoventilation, and autonomic dysregulation) and Prader-Willi syndrome are also covered as hypothalamic syndromes with prominent sleep-related symptoms. Finally, sleep issues in several endocrine disorders are briefly discussed.

Incidence rates of narcolepsy diagnoses in Taiwan, Canada, and Europe: The use of statistical simulation to evaluate methods for the rapid assessment of potential safety issues on a population level in the SOMNIA study

Background & objectives

Vaccine safety signals require investigation, which may be done rapidly at the population level using ecological studies, before embarking on hypothesis-testing studies. Incidence rates were used to assess a signal of narcolepsy following AS03-adjuvanted monovalent pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) influenza vaccination among children and adolescents in Sweden and Finland in 2010. We explored the utility of ecological data to assess incidence of narcolepsy following exposure to pandemic H1N1 virus or vaccination in 10 sites that used different vaccines, adjuvants, and had varying vaccine coverage.

Methods

We calculated incidence rates of diagnosed narcolepsy for periods defined by influenza virus circulation and vaccination campaign dates, and used Poisson regression to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) comparing the periods during which wild-type virus circulated and after the start of vaccination campaigns vs. the period prior to pH1N1 virus circulation. We used electronic health care data from Sweden, Denmark, the United Kingdom, Canada (3 provinces), Taiwan, Netherlands, and Spain (2 regions) from 2003 to 2013. We investigated interactions between age group and adjuvant in European sites and conducted a simulation study to investigate how vaccine coverage, age, and the interval from onset to diagnosis may impact the ability to detect safety signals.

Results

Incidence rates of narcolepsy varied by age, continent, and period. Only in Taiwan and Sweden were significant time-period-by-age-group interactions observed. Associations were found for children in Taiwan (following pH1N1 virus circulation) and Sweden (following vaccination). Simulations showed that the individual-level relative risk of narcolepsy was underestimated using ecological methods comparing post- vs. pre-vaccination periods; this effect was attenuated with higher vaccine coverage and a shorter interval from disease onset to diagnosis.

Conclusions

Ecological methods can be useful for vaccine safety assessment but the results are influenced by diagnostic delay and vaccine coverage. Because ecological methods assess risk at the population level, these methods should be treated as signal-generating methods and drawing conclusions regarding individual-level risk should be avoided.

Narcolepsy and adjuvanted pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 vaccines - Multi-country assessment

BACKGROUND

In 2010, a safety signal was detected for narcolepsy following vaccination with Pandemrix, an AS03-adjuvanted monovalent pandemic H1N1 influenza (pH1N1) vaccine. To further assess a possible association and inform policy on future use of adjuvants, we conducted a multi-country study of narcolepsy and adjuvanted pH1N1 vaccines.

METHODS

We used electronic health databases to conduct a dynamic retrospective cohort study to assess narcolepsy incidence rates (IR) before and during pH1N1 virus circulation, and after pH1N1 vaccination campaigns in Canada, Denmark, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. Using a case-control study design, we evaluated the risk of narcolepsy following AS03- and MF59-adjuvanted pH1N1 vaccines in Argentina, Canada, Spain, Switzerland, Taiwan, and the Netherlands. In the Netherlands, we also conducted a case-coverage study in children born between 2004 and 2009.

RESULTS

No changes in narcolepsy IRs were observed in any periods in single study sites except Sweden and Taiwan; in Taiwan incidence increased after wild-type pH1N1 virus circulation and in Sweden (a previously identified signaling country), incidence increased after the start of pH1N1 vaccination. No association was observed for Arepanrix-AS03 or Focetria-MF59 adjuvanted pH1N1 vaccines and narcolepsy in children or adults in the case-control study nor for children born between 2004 and 2009 in the Netherlands case-coverage study for Pandemrix-AS03.

CONCLUSIONS

Other than elevated narcolepsy IRs in the period after vaccination campaigns in Sweden, we did not find an association between AS03- or MF59-adjuvanted pH1N1 vaccines and narcolepsy in children or adults in the sites studied, although power to evaluate the AS03-adjuvanted Pandemrix brand vaccine was limited in our study.

Influenza and risk of later celiac disease: a cohort study of 2.6 million people

OBJECTIVES

Influenza has been linked to autoimmune conditions, but its relationship to subsequent celiac disease (CD) is unknown. Our primary aim was to determine the risk of CD after influenza. A secondary analysis examined the risk of CD following pandemic influenza vaccination.

METHODS

This nationwide register-based cohort study included 2,637,746 Norwegians (born between 1967-2013) followed during 2006-2014 with information on influenza diagnosed in primary or non-primary care, pandemic vaccination (Pandemrix), and subsequent CD. Cox regression yielded hazard ratios adjusted (HR) for socio-demographic characteristics and earlier healthcare use.

RESULTS

During 13,011,323 person-years of follow-up 7321 individuals were diagnosed with CD (56/100,000 person-years). There were 351,666 individuals diagnosed with influenza, including 82,980 during the 2009-2010 pandemic, and 969,968 individuals were vaccinated. Compared with participants without influenza, who had a CD incidence of 55/100,000 person-years, those diagnosed with seasonal and pandemic influenza had a rate of 68 and 78, per 100,000 person-years, respectively. The HR for CD was 1.29 (95%CI, 1.21-1.38) after seasonal influenza and 1.29 (95%CI, 1.15-1.44) after pandemic influenza; HRs remained significantly increased one year after exposure, when restricted to laboratory-confirmed influenza, and after multivariate adjustments. The reverse association, i.e., risk of influenza after CD, was not significant (HR 1.05; 95%CI, 0.98-1.12). The HR for CD after pandemic vaccination was 1.08 (95%CI, 1.03-1.14).

CONCLUSION

A positive association with influenza diagnosis is consistent with the hypothesis that infections may play a role in CD development. We could neither confirm a causal association with pandemic vaccination, nor refute entirely a small excess risk.

Incidence of narcolepsy after H1N1 influenza and vaccinations: Systematic review and meta-analysis

An increased incidence of narcolepsy was seen in many countries after the pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccination campaign in 2009-2010. The H1N1 vaccine - narcolepsy connection is based on observational studies that are prone to various biases, e.g., confounding by H1N1 infection, and ascertainment, recall and selection biases. A direct pathogenic link has, however, remained elusive. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to analyze the magnitude of H1N1 vaccination related risk and to examine if there was any association with H1N1 infection itself. We searched all articles from PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus, and other relevant sources reporting the incidence and risk of post-vaccine narcolepsy. In our paper, we show that the risk appears to be limited to only one vaccine (Pandemrix^®). During the first year after vaccination, the relative risk of narcolepsy was increased 5 to 14-fold in children and adolescents and 2 to 7-fold in adults. The vaccine attributable risk in children and adolescents was around 1 per 18,400 vaccine doses. Studies from Finland and Sweden also appear to demonstrate an extended risk of narcolepsy into the second year following vaccination, but such conclusions should be interpreted with a word of caution due to possible biases. Benefits of immunization outweigh the risk of vaccination-associated narcolepsy, which remains a rare disease.

Retrospective multicenter matched case-control study on the risk factors for narcolepsy with special focus on vaccinations (including pandemic influenza vaccination) and infections in Germany

OBJECTIVE

Studies associate pandemic influenza vaccination with narcolepsy. In Germany, a retrospective, multicenter, matched case-control study was performed to identify risk factors for narcolepsy, particularly regarding vaccinations (seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccination) and infections (seasonal and pandemic influenza) and to quantify the detected risks.

METHODS

Patients with excessive daytime sleepiness who had been referred to a sleep center between April 2009 and December 2012 for multiple sleep latency test (MSLT) were eligible. Case report forms were validated according to the criteria for narcolepsy defined by the Brighton Collaboration (BC). Confirmed cases of narcolepsy (BC level of diagnostic certainty 1-4a) were matched with population-based controls by year of birth, gender, and place of residence. A second control group was established including patients in whom narcolepsy was definitely excluded (test-negative controls).

RESULTS

A total of 103 validated cases of narcolepsy were matched with 264 population-based controls. The second control group included 29 test-negative controls. A significantly increased odd ratio (OR) to develop narcolepsy (crude OR [cOR] = 3.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.8-8.5; adjusted OR [aOR] = 4.5, 95% CI = 2.0-9.9) was detected in individuals immunized with pandemic influenza A/H1N1/v vaccine prior to symptoms onset as compared to nonvaccinated individuals. Using test-negative controls, in individuals immunized with pandemic influenza A/H1N1/v vaccine prior to symptoms onset, a nonsignificantly increased OR of narcolepsy was detected when compared to nonvaccinated individuals (whole study population, BC levels 1-4a: cOR = 1.9, 95% CI = 0.5-6.9; aOR = 1.8, 95% CI = 0.3-10.1).

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this study support an increased risk for narcolepsy after immunization with pandemic influenza A/H1N1/v vaccine.

Narcolepsy and hypersomnia in Norwegian children and young adults following the influenza A(H1N1) 2009 pandemic

BACKGROUND

Associations between influenza infection and sleep disorders are poorly studied. We investigated if pandemic influenza infection or vaccination with Pandemrix in 2009/2010 was associated with narcolepsy or hypersomnia in children and young adults.

METHODS

We followed the Norwegian population under age 30 from January 2008 through December 2012 by linking national health registry data. Narcolepsy diagnoses were validated using hospital records. Risks of narcolepsy or hypersomnia were estimated as adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) in Cox regression models with influenza infection and vaccination as time-dependent exposures.

RESULTS

Among the 1,638,526 persons under age 30 in Norway in 2009, 3.6% received a physician diagnosis of influenza during the pandemic, while 41.9% were vaccinated against pandemic influenza. Between October 1st 2009 and December 31st 2012, 72 persons had onset of narcolepsy and 305 were diagnosed with hypersomnia. The risk of a sleep disorder was associated with infection during the first six months, adjusted HR 3.31 with 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-10.79 for narcolepsy and adjusted HR 3.13 (95% CI, 1.12-8.76) for hypersomnia. The risk of narcolepsy was strongly associated with vaccination during the first six months adjusted HR 17.21 (95% CI, 6.28-47.14), while the adjusted HR for hypersomnia was 1.54 (95% CI, 0.81-2.93).

CONCLUSIONS

The study confirms an increased HR of narcolepsy following pandemic vaccination. Slightly increased HRs of narcolepsy and hypersomnia are also seen after influenza infection. However, the role of infection should be viewed with caution due to underreporting of influenza.