Predicting outcomes in acute severe ulcerative colitis

CRAB score for prediction of colectomy within 2 years following admission for acute severe ulcerative colitis

Background

The Oxford and Swedish indexes were developed to predict in-hospital colectomy in acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC), but not long-term prediction, and all these indexes were based on Western data. Our study aimed to analyze the predictors of colectomy within 3 years of ASUC in an Indian cohort and derive a simple predictive score.

Methods

A prospective observational study was conducted in a tertiary health care center in South India over a period of 5 years. All patients admitted with ASUC were followed up for a period of 24 months after the index admission, to look for progression to colectomy.

Results

A total of 81 (47 male) patients were included in the derivation cohort. Fifteen (18.5%) patients required colectomy during a follow-up period of 24 months. On regression analysis, C-reactive protein (CRP) and serum albumin were independent predictors of 24-month colectomy. The CRAB (CRP + AlBumin) score was obtained by multiplying coefficient of beta to albumin and CRP (CRAB score = CRP x 0.2 - Albumin x 0.26). The CRAB score demonstrated an AUROC of 0.923 and a score of >0.4 with a sensitivity of 82% and specificity of 92% for the prediction of 2-year colectomy following ASUC. The score was validated in a validation cohort of 31 patients, and at >0.4, the score had a sensitivity of 83% and a specificity of 96% in predicting colectomy.

Conclusion

CRAB score is a simple prognostic score that can predict 2-year colectomy in ASUC patients with high sensitivity and specificity.

Older adults with acute severe ulcerative colitis have similar steroid non-response and colectomy rates as younger adults

BACKGROUND

There is paucity of data on outcomes of acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) in older adults (≥ 60 years of age).

AIM

To assess steroid non-response rates during the index admission for ASUC in older adults. Secondary outcomes were response to medical rescue therapy and colectomy rates; at index admission, 3 and 12 mo.

METHODS

This retrospective multicentre cohort study included ASUC admissions who received intravenous steroids between January 2013 and July 2020 at two tertiary hospitals. Electronic medical records were reviewed to collect clinical, biochemical, and endoscopic data. A modified Poisson regression model was used for analysis.

RESULTS

Of 226 ASUC episodes, 45 (19.9%) occurred in patients ≥ 60 years of age. Steroid non-response rates were comparable in older adults and patients < 60 years of age [19 (42.2%) vs 85 (47%), P = 0.618, crude risk ratio (RR) = 0.89 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.61-1.30], adjusted RR = 0.99 (0.44-2.21). Rates of response to medical rescue therapy in older adults was comparable to the younger cohort [76.5% vs 85.7%, P = 0.46, crude RR = 0.89 (0.67-1.17)]. Index admission colectomy [13.3% vs 10.5%, P = 0.598, crude RR = 1.27 (0.53-2.99), adjusted RR = 1.43 (0.34-6.06)], colectomy at 3 mo [20% vs 16.6%, P = 0.66, crude RR = 1.18 (0.61-2.3), adjusted RR = 1.31 (0.32-0.53)] and colectomy at 12 mo [20% vs 23.2%, P = 0.682, crude RR = 0.85 (0.45-1.57), adjusted RR = 1.21 (0.29-4.97)], were similar between the two groups.

CONCLUSION

In older adults with ASUC, the steroid non-response rate, response to medical rescue therapy, and colectomy rate at index admission, 3 and 12 mo is similar to patients less than 60 years of age.

Long-Term Risk of Colectomy in Patients with Severe Ulcerative Colitis Responding to Intravenous Corticosteroids or Infliximab

Background and aims: Intravenous corticosteroids (IVCS) and rescue therapy with infliximab (IFX) are useful for managing patients with acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC). However, nearly one fifth of responders undergo colectomy. Predictive factors of colectomy in this subset of patients are not fully known. We retrospectively examined the long-term risk and the predictors of colectomy in ASUC patients achieving clinical remission following treatment with IVCS or IFX. Patients and methods: Clinical and demographic characteristics were evaluated in consecutive ASUC patients who were admitted to the “Tor Vergata University” hospital between 2010 and 2020 and responded to IVCS or IFX. A multivariate logistic regression model was constructed to identify independent predictors of colectomy. Results: A total of 116 ASUC patients responding to IVCS (98 patients) or IFX (18 patients) were followed up for a median of 46 months. After discharge, 29 patients (25%) underwent colectomy. Multivariate analysis showed that a serum albumin level <3 g/dL and colonic dilation >5.5 cm on admission were independent predictors of colectomy (OR: 6.9, 95% CI: 2.08−22.8, and OR 8.5, 95% CI: 1.23−58.3, respectively). Patients with both these factors had a risk of colectomy 13 times greater than those with no risk factor. Conclusions: A low serum albumin level and colonic dilation are risk factors of long-term colectomy in ASUC patients responding to IVCS or IFX.

SERUM PROCALCITONIN AS A PROGNOSTIC MARKER IN ACUTE SEVERE ULCERATIVE COLITIS: A PROSPECTIVE STUDY

ABSTRACT Background Procalcitonin may be increased in active ulcerative colitis (UC). We investigated the role of procalcitonin in predicting response in acute severe UC (ASUC). Methods Consecutive patients with ASUC diagnosed on basis of Truelove and Witts criteria were enrolled. Serum procalcitonin levels for consecutive patients were measured at admission and day 3. We assessed role of procalcitonin values at presentation and at day 3 in assessing response on day 3 (Oxford’s criteria) and need for second line therapy (day 28). Results Of fifty patients (23 males, mean age: 35.98±13.8 years), 16 did not respond (day 3). Ten (20%) patients required second-line therapy. Baseline procalcitonin was significantly associated with response on day 3 (P=0.016). There was no association between day 1 or day 3 procalcitonin and need for second-line rescue therapy. Conclusion Serial procalcitonin is not an effective biomarker for predicting outcomes or need for second line therapy in ASUC.

A Scoring System to Determine Patients' Risk of Colectomy Within 1 Year After Hospital Admission for Acute Severe Ulcerative Colitis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

There is consensus on the criteria used to define acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) and on patient management, but it has been a challenge to identify patients at risk for colectomy based on data collected at hospital admission. We aimed to develop a system to determine patients' risk of colectomy within 1 y of hospital admission for ASUC based on clinical, biomarker, and endoscopy data.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of consecutive patients with ASUC treated with corticosteroids, ciclosporin, or tumor necrosis factor (TNF) antagonists and admitted to 2 hospitals in France from 2002 through 2017. Patients were followed until colectomy or loss of follow up. A total of 270 patients with ASUC were included in the final analysis, with a median follow-up time of 30 months (derivation cohort). Independent risk factors identified by Cox multivariate analysis were used to develop a system to identify patients at risk for colectomy 1 y after ASUC. We developed a scoring system based on these 4 factors (1 point for each item) to identify high-risk (score 3 or 4) vs low-risk (score 0) patients. We validated this system using data from an independent cohort of 185 patients with ASUC treated from 2006 through 2017 at 2 centers in France.

RESULTS

In the derivation cohort, the cumulative risk of colectomy was 12.3% (95% CI, 8.6-16.8). Based on multivariate analysis, previous treatment with TNF antagonists or thiopurines (hazard ratio [HR], 3.86; 95% CI, 1.82-8.18), Clostridioides difficile infection (HR, 3.73; 95% CI, 1.11-12.55), serum level of C-reactive protein above 30 mg/L (HR, 3.06; 95% CI, 1.11-8.43), and serum level of albumin below 30 g/L (HR, 2.67; 95% CI, 1.20-5.92) were associated with increased risk of colectomy. In the derivation cohort, the cumulative risks of colectomy within 1 y in patients with scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 were 0.0%, 9.4% (95% CI, 4.3%-16.7%), 10.6% (95% CI, 5.6%-17.4%), 51.2% (95% CI, 26.6%-71.3%), and 100%. Negative predictive values ranged from 87% (95% CI, 82%-91%) to 92% (95% CI, 88%-95.0%). Findings from the validation cohort were consistent with findings from the derivation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a scoring system to identify patients at low-risk vs high-risk for colectomy within 1 y of hospitalization for ASUC, based on previous treatment with TNF antagonists or thiopurines, C difficile infection, and serum levels of CRP and albumin. The system was validated in an external cohort.

Treatment of acute severe ulcerative colitis

Acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) is a potentially life-threatening medical emergency. Due to the increasing incidence of ulcerative colitis in recent years, ASUC has become increasingly common in clinical practice. Presently, corticosteroids remain the first choice, whose efficacy should be evaluated after 3 d. If unsatisfactory, it should be switched to infliximab or cyclosporine salvage treatment timely. Besides, colectomy may be an option when medical treatment is ineffective or serious complications occur. This review describes the current treatment regimens for ASUC, with an aim to help develop treatment plans and improve the prognosis and life quality of patients with ASUC .

Glucocorticoids Promote the Onset of Acute Experimental Colitis and Cancer by Upregulating mTOR Signaling in Intestinal Epithelial Cells

The therapeutic effects of glucocorticoids on colitis and colitis-associated cancer are unclear. In this study, we investigated the therapeutic roles of glucocorticoids in acute experimental ulcerative colitis and colitis-associated cancer in mice and their immunoregulatory mechanisms. Murine acute ulcerative colitis was induced by dextran sulfate sodium (DSS) and treated with dexamethasone (Dex) at different doses. Dex significantly exacerbated the onset and severity of DSS-induced colitis and potentiated mucosal inflammatory macrophage and neutrophil infiltration, as well as cytokine production. Furthermore, under inflammatory conditions, the expression of the glucocorticoid receptor (GR) did not change significantly, while mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) signaling was higher in colonic epithelial cells than in colonic immune cells. The deletion of mTOR in intestinal epithelial cells, but not that in myeloid immune cells, in mice significantly ameliorated the severe course of colitis caused by Dex, including weight loss, clinical score, colon length, pathological damage, inflammatory cell infiltration and pro-inflammatory cytokine production. These data suggest that mTOR signaling in intestinal epithelial cells, mainly mTORC1, plays a critical role in the Dex-induced exacerbation of acute colitis and colitis-associated cancer. Thus, these pieces of evidence indicate that glucocorticoid-induced mTOR signaling in epithelial cells is required in the early stages of acute ulcerative colitis by modulating the dynamics of innate immune cell recruitment and activation.

Predicting the Course of Disease in Hospitalized Patients With Acute Severe Ulcerative Colitis

BACKGROUND

Up to one-third of patients with acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) will fail intravenous steroid (IVS) treatment, requiring rescue therapy with cyclosporin (Cys), infliximab (IFX), or colectomy. Although several scores for predicting response to IVS exist, formal comparison is lacking.

METHODS

We performed a single-center retrospective analysis including 489 patients with ulcerative colitis. In patients with ASUC, the Mayo endoscopic subscore and the Oxford, Edinburgh, and Lindgren scores were assessed. Outcomes included IVS failure, need for rescue medical therapy, and surgery.

RESULTS

One hundred twelve patients presented with ASUC. Forty-two percent showed an incomplete or absent response to IVS, 28.6% received rescue therapy (22 with IFX, 10 with Cys, and 1 with sequential treatment), and 26.8% required surgery. The Lindgren score showed the highest performance in predicting IVS failure (are under the curve [AUC], 0.856; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.784-0.928), need for medical rescue therapy (AUC, 0.826; 95% CI, 0.749-0.902), and surgery (AUC, 0.836; 95% CI, 0.712-0.960; all P < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

In our series, the Lindgren score was superior to the Mayo, Oxford, and Edinburgh scores in predicting major clinical outcomes in ASUC.

Outcomes and prediction of corticosteroid therapy after successive courses of ulcerative colitis treatments

BACKGROUND

Ulcerative colitis (UC) may require systemic corticosteroid (CS) treatment often without a reliable predictable response, except the Ho-index, used to predict severe cases. The present study aims to determine CS-efficacy and CS-free remission for different courses and longer follow-ups, and a predictive value of CS-outcomes, by the Ho-index and the analysis of clinical variables.

METHODS

An observational retrospective study performed with 136 patients was based on clinical and analytical characteristics, before successive CS-therapies.

RESULTS

The age of UC onset showed three peaks. After the first course, 55.6% were CS-responders, and 39% had CS-free remission by the 3-5-year follow-up. Successive CS-courses presented less efficacy and CS-free remissions, associated with increased CS-use dependence. The Ho-index might only predict the first course of CS and low-score patients with severe UC. Logistic regression analysis gave a predictive response mainly due to the age at diagnosis, the interval from diagnosis to CS-therapy, and C-reactive protein (CRP) or hemoglobin values.

CONCLUSIONS

One-third of the cases were CS-free remission UC. Successive courses showed decreased efficacy and increased CS-dependence, limiting CS-treatment. An older age at diagnosis, longer interval from diagnosis to CS-therapy, lower CRP and higher hemoglobin predicted better prognosis. The accuracy of prediction should be validated and include additional markers.

Chinese research into severe ulcerative colitis has increased in quantity and complexity

AIM

To investigate the current state of research output from Chinese studies into severe ulcerative colitis (SUC) using a bibliometric analysis of publications.

METHODS

The contents of the Chinese periodical databases WANFANG, VIP, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure were searched for all papers regarding UC or SUC published in last the 15 years (from 2001 to 2015). The number of publications in each year was recorded to assess the temporal trends of research output. All SUC related publications were downloaded and the complexity of this research was evaluated with methods described previously. The number of patients with SUC reported each year was recorded and their clinical characteristics were analyzed using information available in the relevant papers.

RESULTS

There were 13499 publications regarding UC published in Chinese medical journals between 2001 and 2015, of which 201 focused on SUC. The number of publications increased rapidly with more than half of all papers being published in the most recent 5-year period. There was a significant increase in analytical studies and clinical trials over the study period (P < 0.01), with research into the management of SUC, included pharmacotherapy, nutrition support as well as surgery, predominating. Almost half (46.2%) of the observational analytical studies and clinical trials focused on Traditional Chinese Medicine, with little research on the efficacy of cyclosporin and infliximab in disease management. About 6222 patients with SUC were reported in the 201 SUC relevant papers, with a ratio of male/female of 1.38. The number of patients reported in each 5-year period significantly increased. The colectomy rate and short-term mortality rate were 7.7% and 0.8% respectively. The most commonly employed operation was total proctocolectomy with ileal pouch-anal anastomosis.

CONCLUSION

The output and complexity of research related to SUC in China increased significantly over the previous 15 years, however few of these studies focused on salvage therapy.