Desigualdades sócio-espaciais da adequação das informações de nascimentos e óbitos do Ministério da Saúde, Brasil, 2000-2002

Current and Projected Mortality and Hospitalization Rates Associated With Conditional Cash Transfer, Social Pension, and Primary Health Care Programs in Brazil, 2000-2030

Importance

The health outcomes of increased poverty and inequalities in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have been substantially amplified as a consequence of converging multiple crises. Brazil has some of the world's largest conditional cash transfer (Programa Bolsa Família [PBF]), social pension (Beneficio de Prestacão Continuada [BPC]), and primary health care (Estratégia de Saúde da Família [ESF]) programs that could act as mitigating interventions during the current polycrisis era of increasing poverty, slow or contracting economic growth, and conflicts.

Objective

To evaluate the combined association of the Brazilian conditional cash transfer, social pension, and primary health care programs with the reduction of morbidity and mortality over the last 2 decades and forecast their potential mitigation of the current global polycrisis and beyond.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study used a longitudinal ecological design with multivariable negative binomial regression models (adjusted for relevant socioeconomic, demographic, and health care variables) integrating the retrospective analysis from 2000 to 2019, with dynamic microsimulation models to forecast potential child mortality scenarios up to 2030. Participants included a cohort of 2548 Brazilian municipalities from 2004 to 2019, projected from 2020 to 2030. Data analysis was performed from September 2022 to February 2023.

Exposure

PBF coverage of the target population (those who were poorest) was categorized into 4 levels: low (0%-29.9%), intermediate (30.0%-69.9%), high (70.0%-99.9%), and consolidated (≥100%). ESF coverage was categorized as null (0), low (0.1%-29.9%), intermediate (30.0%-69.9%), and consolidated (70.0%-100%). BPC coverage was categorized by terciles.

Main outcomes and measures

Age-standardized, all-cause mortality and hospitalization rates calculated for the entire population and by age group (<5 years, 5-29 years, 30-69 years, and ≥70 years).

Results

Among the 2548 Brazilian municipalities studied from 2004 to 2019, the mean (SD) age-standardized mortality rate decreased by 16.64% (from 6.73 [1.14] to 5.61 [0.94] deaths per 1000 population). Consolidated coverages of social welfare programs studied were all associated with reductions in overall mortality rates (PBF: rate ratio [RR], 0.95 [95% CI, 0.94-0.96]; ESF: RR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.93-0.94]; BPC: RR, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.91-0.92]), having all together prevented an estimated 1 462 626 (95% CI, 1 332 128-1 596 924) deaths over the period 2004 to 2019. The results were higher on mortality for the group younger than age 5 years (PBF: RR, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.85-0.90]; ESF: RR, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.87-0.93]; BPC: RR, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.82-0.86]), on mortality for the group aged 70 years and older, and on hospitalizations. Considering a shorter scenario of economic crisis, a mitigation strategy that will increase the coverage of PBF, BPC, and ESF to proportionally cover the newly poor and at-risk individuals was projected to avert 1 305 359 (95% CI, 1 163 659-1 449 256) deaths and 6 593 224 (95% CI, 5 534 591-7 651 327) hospitalizations up to 2030, compared with fiscal austerity scenarios that would reduce the coverage of these interventions.

Conclusions and relevance

This cohort study's results suggest that combined expansion of conditional cash transfers, social pensions, and primary health care should be considered a viable strategy to mitigate the adverse health outcomes of the current global polycrisis in LMICs, whereas the implementation of fiscal austerity measures could result in large numbers of preventable deaths.

Income determines the impact of cash transfers on HIV/AIDS: cohort study of 22.7 million Brazilians

Living with extremely low-income is an important risk factor for HIV/AIDS and can be mitigated by conditional cash transfers. Using a cohort of 22.7 million low-income individuals during 9 years, we evaluated the effects of the world's largest conditional cash transfer, the Programa Bolsa Família, on HIV/AIDS-related outcomes. Exposure to Programa Bolsa Família was associated with reduced AIDS incidence by 41% (RR:0.59; 95%CI:0.57-0.61), mortality by 39% (RR:0.61; 95%CI:0.57-0.64), and case fatality rates by 25% (RR:0.75; 95%CI:0.66-0.85) in the cohort, and Programa Bolsa Família effects were considerably stronger among individuals of extremely low-income [reduction of 55% for incidence (RR:0.45, 95% CI:0.42-0.47), 54% mortality (RR:0.46, 95% CI:0.42-0.49), and 37% case-fatality (RR:0.63, 95% CI:0.51 -0.76)], decreasing gradually until having no effect in individuals with higher incomes. Similar effects were observed on HIV notification. Programa Bolsa Família impact was also stronger among women and adolescents. Several sensitivity and triangulation analyses demonstrated the robustness of the results. Conditional cash transfers can significantly reduce AIDS morbidity and mortality in extremely vulnerable populations and should be considered an essential intervention to achieve AIDS-related sustainable development goals by 2030.

Understanding the social determinants of child mortality in Latin America over the last two decades: a machine learning approach

The reduction of child mortality rates remains a significant global public health challenge, particularly in regions with high levels of inequality such as Latin America. We used machine learning (ML) algorithms to explore the relationship between social determinants and child under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) in Brazil, Ecuador, and Mexico over two decades. We created a municipal-level cohort from 2000 to 2019 and trained a random forest model (RF) to estimate the relative importance of social determinants in predicting U5MR. We conducted a sensitivity analysis training two more ML models and presenting the mean square error, root mean square error, and median absolute deviation. Our findings indicate that poverty, illiteracy, and the Gini index were the most important variables for predicting U5MR according to the RF. Furthermore, non-linear relationships were found mainly for Gini index and U5MR. Our study suggests that long-term public policies to reduce U5MR in Latin America should focus on reducing poverty, illiteracy, and socioeconomic inequalities. This research provides important insights into the relationships between social determinants and child mortality rates in Latin America. The use of ML algorithms, combined with large longitudinal data, allowed us to evaluate the effects of social determinants on health more carefully than traditional models.

Evaluation and Forecasting Analysis of the Association of Conditional Cash Transfer With Child Mortality in Latin America, 2000-2030

Importance

Latin America has implemented the world's largest and most consolidated conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs during the last 2 decades. As a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic, poverty rates have markedly increased, and a large number of newly low-income individuals, especially children, have been left unprotected.

Objective

To evaluate the association of CCT programs with child health in Latin American countries during the last 2 decades and forecast child mortality trends up to 2030 according to CCT alternative implementation options.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study used a multicountry, longitudinal, ecological design with multivariable negative binomial regression models, which were adjusted for all relevant demographic, socioeconomic, and health care variables, integrating the retrospective impact evaluations from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2019, with dynamic microsimulation models to forecast potential child mortality scenarios up to 2030. The study cohort included 4882 municipalities from Brazil, Ecuador, and Mexico with adequate quality of civil registration and vital statistics according to a validated multidimensional criterion. Data analysis was performed from September 2022 to February 2023.

Exposure

Conditional cash transfer coverage of the target (lowest-income) population categorized into 4 levels: low (0%-29.9%), intermediate (30.0%-69.9%), high (70.0%-99.9%), and consolidated (≥100%).

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcomes were mortality rates for those younger than 5 years and hospitalization rates (per 1000 live births), overall and by poverty-related causes (diarrheal, malnutrition, tuberculosis, malaria, lower respiratory tract infections, and HIV/AIDS), and the mortality rates for those younger than 5 years by age groups, namely, neonatal (0-28 days), postneonatal (28 days to 1 year), infant (<1 year), and toddler (1-4 years).

Results

The retrospective analysis included 4882 municipalities. During the study period of January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2019, mortality in Brazil, Ecuador, and Mexico decreased by 7.8% in children and 6.5% in infants, and an increase in coverage of CCT programs of 76.8% was observed in these Latin American countries. Conditional cash transfer programs were associated with significant reductions of mortality rates in those younger than 5 years (rate ratio [RR], 0.76; 95% CI, 0.75-0.76), having prevented 738 919 (95% CI, 695 641-782 104) child deaths during this period. The association of highest coverage of CCT programs was stronger with poverty-related diseases, such as malnutrition (RR, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.31-0.35), diarrhea (RR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.40-0.43), lower respiratory tract infections (RR, 0.66, 95% CI, 0.65-0.68), malaria (RR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.63-0.93), tuberculosis (RR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.48-0.79), and HIV/AIDS (RR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.28-0.37). Several sensitivity and triangulation analyses confirmed the robustness of the results. Considering a scenario of moderate economic crisis, a mitigation strategy that will increase the coverage of CCTs to protect those newly in poverty could reduce the mortality rate for those younger than 5 years by up to 17% (RR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.80-0.85) and prevent 153 601 (95% CI, 127 441-180 600) child deaths by 2030 in Brazil, Ecuador, and Mexico.

Conclusions and Relevance

The results of this cohort study suggest that the expansion of CCT programs could strongly reduce childhood hospitalization and mortality in Latin America and should be considered an effective strategy to mitigate the health impact of the current global economic crisis in low- and middle-income countries.

Long-term impact of a conditional cash transfer programme on maternal mortality: a nationwide analysis of Brazilian longitudinal data

BACKGROUND

Reducing poverty and improving access to health care are two of the most effective actions to decrease maternal mortality, and conditional cash transfer (CCT) programmes act on both. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of one of the world's largest CCT (the Brazilian Bolsa Familia Programme (BFP)) on maternal mortality during a period of 11 years.

METHODS

The study had an ecological longitudinal design and used all 2548 Brazilian municipalities with vital statistics of adequate quality during 2004-2014. BFP municipal coverage was classified into four levels, from low to consolidated, and its duration effects were measured using the average municipal coverage of previous years. We used negative binomial multivariable regression models with fixed-effects specifications, adjusted for all relevant demographic, socioeconomic, and healthcare variables.

RESULTS

BFP was significantly associated with reductions of maternal mortality proportionally to its levels of coverage and years of implementation, with a rate ratio (RR) reaching 0.88 (95%CI 0.81-0.95), 0.84 (0.75-0.96) and 0.83 (0.71-0.99) for intermediate, high and consolidated BFP coverage over the previous 11 years. The BFP duration effect was stronger among young mothers (RR 0.77; 95%CI 0.67-0.96). BFP was also associated with reductions in the proportion of pregnant women with no prenatal visits (RR 0.73; 95%CI 0.69-0.77), reductions in hospital case-fatality rate for delivery (RR 0.78; 95%CI 0.66-0.94) and increases in the proportion of deliveries in hospital (RR 1.05; 95%CI 1.04-1.07).

CONCLUSION

Our findings show that a consolidated and durable CCT coverage could decrease maternal mortality, and these long-term effects are stronger among poor mothers exposed to CCT during their childhood and adolescence, suggesting a CCT inter-generational effect. Sustained CCT coverage could reduce health inequalities and contribute to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goal 3.1, and should be preserved during the current global economic crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Eco-epidemiological Aspects of Visceral Leishmaniasis in the Municipality of Diamantina, Jequitinhonha Valley (Minas Gerais State, Brazil)

Background: The present study was carried out in the rural and urban area of Diamantina/Minas Gerais (MG), an endemic municipality for visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Brazil. Methods: Patient notification records, canine prevalence, and phlebotomine fauna were evaluated. Results: In the period from 2016 to 2018, eight human cases were confirmed, with three deaths, predominantly in males. In the same period, a total of 1,388 dogs resided in the rural and urban area of the municipality were submitted to the DPP® and ELISA, with a percentage of confirmed canine cases of 29.9% and 29.4%, respectively. The entomological study conducted in the municipality revealed the presence of 10 species of sand flies, with a predominance of Lutzomyia longipalpis (55.75%), mainly in the rural area. Conclusions: Unlike what is happening in urban centers, the results of this study suggest that the VL in Diamantina is in the process of urbanization, given the high percentage of confirmed canine cases and the high density of Lu. longipalpis in the rural area of the municipality. These risk factors warn about the need for continuous surveillance and the need to control actions of VL in this area.

Combination of conditional cash transfer program and environmental health interventions reduces child mortality: an ecological study of Brazilian municipalities

BACKGROUND

This study aims to assess the interactive effects of Brazilian public interventions, environmental health programs (access to water, sanitation and solid waste collection) and a Conditional Cash Transfer Program (PBF), on the mortality reduction due to diarrhea and malnutrition among children under 5 years old.

METHODS

The study design is ecological, with longitudinal analysis in a balanced panel. The period covered is 2006 to 2016, including 3467 municipalities from all regions of the country, which resulted in 38,137 observations. The generalized linear models were adjusted considering the Negative Binomial (NB) distribution for the number of deaths due to malnutrition and diarrhea, with fixed effects. NB models with and without zero-inflation were assessed. Subsequent interaction models were applied to assess the combined effects of the two public policies.

RESULTS

In relation to the decline of mortality rates due to diarrhea in the municipalities, positive effect modification were observed in the presence of: high coverage of the target population by the PBF and access to water, 0.54 (0.28-1.04) / 0.55 (0.29-1.04); high coverage by the total population by the PBF and access to water, 0.97 (0.95-1.00) and high coverage by the total population by the PBF and access to sanitation, 0.98 (0.97-1.00). Decline on diarrhea mortality was also observed in the joint presence of high coverage of solid waste collection and access to water, categories 1 (> 60% ≤85%): 0.98 (0.96-1.00), 0.98 (0.97-1, 00) and 2 (> 85% ≤ 100%): 0.97 (0.95-0.98), 0.97 (0.95-0.99). Negative effect modification were observed for mortality due to malnutrition in the presence of simultaneous high coverage of the total population by the PBF and access to sanitation categories 1 (≥ 20 < 50%): 1.0061 (0.9991-1.0132) and 2 (≥ 50 < 100%): 1.0073 (1.0002-1.0145) and high coverage of the total population by the PBF and solid waste collection, 1.0004 (1.0002-1.0005), resulting in malnutrition mortality rates increase.

CONCLUSION

Implementation of environmental health services and the coverage expansion by the PBF may enhance the prevention of early deaths in children under 5 years old due to diarrhea, a poverty related disease.

Combined effects of conditional cash transfer program and environmental health interventions on diarrhea and malnutrition morbidity in children less than five years of age in Brazil, 2006-2016

INTRODUCTION

Governmental measures aiming at social protection, with components of disease control, have potential positive impacts in the nutritional and health outcomes of the beneficiaries. The concomitant presence of these measures with environmental sanitation interventions may increase their positive effect. The context of simultaneous improvement of social protection and environmental sanitation is found in Brazil since 2007 and an assessment of the combined effects of both programs has not been performed so far.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate whether interaction effects between improvement of access to water, sanitation and solid waste collection with the Bolsa Família Program [PBF] were related to better responses in the reduction of morbidity due to diarrhea and malnutrition in children less than five years of age, acknowledging the positive results of these improved conditions and the PBF separately in coping with these diseases.

METHODS

Descriptive and inferential analyses were performed through Generalized Linear Models of the Negative Binomial type of fixed effects, with and without addition of zeros. Interaction models were inserted in order to evaluate the outcomes when the two public policies of interest in the current study were present simultaneously in the municipalities.

RESULTS

Interaction with negative effect when a concomitantly high municipal coverage of the Bolsa Família Program and adequate access to sanitation and solid waste collection were present. In contrast, regardless of municipal coverage by the PBF, the simultaneous presence of water and sanitation (0.028% / 0.019%); water and solid waste collection (0.033% / 0.014%); sanitation and solid waste collection (0.018% / 0.021%), all resulted in a positive effect, with a decrease in the average morbidity rates for both diseases.

CONCLUSION

Investments aimed at universalizing water, sanitation and solid waste collection services should be priorities, aiming at reducing the incidence of morbidity due to malnutrition and diarrhea and preventing deaths from these poverty-related diseases.

Family health and conditional cash transfer in Brazil and its effect on tuberculosis mortality

BACKGROUND

Social protection can reduce poverty and act on the determinants of tuberculosis (TB).

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the impact of the Family Health Strategy (FHS) and the Bolsa Família Programme on TB-related mortality in Brazil.

METHODS

This was an ecological study in which the units of analysis were Brazilian municipalities between 2001 and 2012. The principal independent variables were the levels of coverage of the primary health care system and the conditional cash transfer programme. The dependent variable was TB mortality rate (obtained from national databases). Descriptive analysis and negative binomial regression based on panel data using fixed-effects models were performed. Crude and adjusted estimates were calculated for continuous and categorical variables.

RESULTS

A high FHS coverage was significantly associated with a reduction in the TB mortality rate (RR 0.80, 95%CI 0.72-0.89). An increase in the coverage of the Brazilian cash transfer programme was significantly associated with a reduction in the TB mortality rate (RR 0.87, 95%CI 0.81-0.96).

CONCLUSION

FHS and the Bolsa Família conditional cash transfer programme had a positive impact on the TB mortality rate in Brazil. Public policies should include economic support combined with health promotion.

Mortalidade infantil e classificação de sua evitabilidade por cor ou raça em Mato Grosso do Sul

Resumo Estudo epidemiológico que objetivou analisar os óbitos infantis em menores de um ano e seus critérios de evitabilidade por cor ou raça, em Mato Grosso do Sul, de 2005 a 2013, a partir dos Sistemas de Informações sobre Mortalidade e sobre Nascidos Vivos. Elaborou-se o coeficiente de mortalidade infantil anual e a descrição dos óbitos por componentes e por grupo de causas evitáveis, mal definidas e não evitáveis para os três triênios. Observou-se declínio do coeficiente de mortalidade infantil para todas as categorias de cor ou raça, com predomínio para as crianças pardas e pretas. O componente Neonatal precoce apresentou maior percentual de óbitos para todas as categorias, com exceção da indígena que registrou predomínio no componente Pós-neonatal. Os óbitos ocorreram, majoritariamente, por causas evitáveis e não foram homogêneos entre as categorias de cor ou raça. Os óbitos por causas mal definidas predominaram entre as crianças indígenas e pardas. A investigação dos óbitos apontou diferenças nos componentes de mortalidade e nas causas evitáveis segundo recorte étnico racial, o que poderá contribuir para o direcionamento de políticas públicas que qualifiquem a rede assistencial materno-infantil, sobretudo para as minorias étnicas.

Strong effect of Ecuador's conditional cash transfer program on childhood mortality from poverty-related diseases: a nationwide analysis

BACKGROUND

The mortality rate in children under 5 years old (U5MR) has decreased considerably in Ecuador in the last decade; however, thousands of children continue to die from causes related to poverty. A social program known as Bono de Desarrollo Humano (BDH) was created to guarantee a minimum level of consumption for families and to reduce chronic malnutrition and preventable childhood diseases. We sought to evaluate the effect of the BDH program on mortality of children younger than 5 years, particularly from malnutrition, diarrheal diseases, and lower respiratory tract infections.

METHODS

Mortality rates and BDH coverage from 2009 to 2014 were evaluated from the 144 (of 222) Ecuadorian counties with intermediate and high quality of vital information. A multivariable regression analyses for panel data was conducted by using a negative binomial regression model with fixed effects, adjusted for all relevant demographic and socioeconomic covariates.

RESULTS

Our research shows that for each 1% increase in BDH county coverage there would be a decrease in U5MR from malnutrition of 3% (RR 0.971, 95% CI 0.953-0.989). An effect of BDH county coverage on mortality resulting from respiratory infections was also observed (RR 0.992, 95% CI 0.984-0.999). The BDH also reduced hospitalization rates in children younger than 5 years, overall and for diarrhea.

CONCLUSIONS

A conditional cash transfer program such as BDH could contribute to the reduction of mortality due to causes related to poverty, such as malnutrition and respiratory infections. The coverage should be maintained -or increased in a period of economic crisis- and its implementation strengthened.

Primary care physicians and infant mortality: Evidence from Brazil

Primary health care has been recognized as a critical strategy for improving population health in developing countries. This paper investigates the effect of primary care physicians on the infant mortality rate in Brazil using a dynamic panel data approach. This method accounts for the endogeneity problem and the persistence of infant mortality over time. The empirical analysis uses an eight-year panel of municipalities between 2005 and 2012. The results indicate that primary care physician supply contributed to the decline of infant mortality in Brazil. An increase of one primary care physician per 10,000 population was associated with 7.08 fewer infant deaths per 10,000 live births. This suggests that, in addition to other determinants, primary care physicians can play an important role in accounting for the reduction of infant mortality rates.

Effect of the Brazilian cash transfer programme on suicide rates: a longitudinal analysis of the Brazilian municipalities

PURPOSE

There is a growing awareness of the economic and contextual factors that may play a role in the aetiology of suicide. The Programa Bolsa Família (PBF) the Brazilian conditional cash transfer programme, established in 2004, aims to attenuate the effects of poverty of Brazilians. Our study aims to evaluate the effect of Bolsa Família Programme (BFP) coverage on suicide rates in Brazilian municipalities.

METHODS

We conducted an ecological study using 2004-2012 panel data for 5507 Brazilian municipalities. We calculated age-standardized suicide rates for each municipality and year. BFP coverage was categorized according to three levels (< 30%, ≥ 30% and < 70% and ≥ 70%) and duration (coverage ≤ 70% for all years, ≥ 70% for 1 year, ≥ 70% for 2 years, ≥ 70% for 3 or more years). We used negative binomial regression models with fixed effects, adjusting for socio-economic, demographic and social welfare co-variables.

RESULTS

An increase in BFP coverage was associated with a reduction in suicide rates. The strongest effect was observed when in addition to greater municipal coverage (RR 0.942, 95% CI 0.936-0.947), the duration of the high coverage was maintained for 3 years or more (RR 0.952 95% CI 0.950-0.954).

CONCLUSIONS

The results provide evidence that the conditional cash transfer programme may reduce suicide in Brazilian municipalities, mitigating the effect of poverty on suicide incidence.

Tendência e desigualdade na completude da informação sobre raça/cor dos óbitos de idosos no Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade no Brasil, entre 2000 e 2015

A qualidade da informação sobre raça/cor é condição necessária para conhecer o impacto da desigualdade na mortalidade. O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar a tendência e a desigualdade na completude da raça/cor dos óbitos de idosos no Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM) entre 2000 e 2015 no Brasil. Analisa-se a completude dessa variável por diferentes abrangências geográficas, a raça/cor mais afetada pela má completude e a associação entre a excelência do preenchimento da raça/cor com a territorialidade e a condição socioeconômica dos municípios. Os dados dos óbitos de idosos provêm do SIM, e as informações de população, dos Censos e estimativas do Ministério da Saúde. Estima-se a variação percentual da proporção da incompletude. A variação percentual de pretos/pardos foi estimada entre 2000 e 2010 para o SIM e Censos. Estima-se regressão logística simples e ajustada (IC95%), tendo, como desfecho excelente, completude da raça/cor e, como resposta, variáveis territoriais e socioeconômicas. Encontrou-se acentuada melhora da qualidade do preenchimento no período, especialmente até 2006, sendo excelente a média nacional desde 2007. Nota-se desigualdade territorial em nível municipal. Municípios de IDH baixo/médio, com alta proporção de pobreza e desigualdade tiveram menor chance de ter excelente completude. O modelo ajustado mostra que a região e o tamanho do município são as características que explicam a excelente qualidade da variável raça/cor. Municípios do Nordeste e de pequeno porte têm menos chance de excelente completude. Conclui-se que raça/cor no SIM tem qualidade para ser utilizada nos estudos de desigualdade da mortalidade dos idosos, salvo exceções em nível municipal.

Conditional cash transfer programme: Impact on homicide rates and hospitalisations from violence in Brazil

BACKGROUND

Homicide kills more people than war globally and is associated with income inequality. In Brazil, one of the most unequal countries of the world, the homicide rate is four times higher than the world average. Establishing if the Brazilian conditional cash transfer programme [Bolsa Familia Programme (BFP)], the largest in the world, is associated with a reduction in the rate of homicide is relevant for violence prevention programs. We aimed to assess the effect of BFP coverage on homicide and hospitalization rates from violence.

METHODS

BFP coverage and rates of homicide (overall and disaggregated by sex and age) and hospitalizations from violence from all 5,507 Brazilian municipalities between 2004 and 2012 were explored using multivariable negative binomial regression models with fixed effect for panel data. Robustness of results was explored using sensitivity analyses such as difference-in-difference models.

FINDINGS

Homicide rates and hospitalization from violence decreased as BFP coverage in the target population increased. For each percent increase in the uptake of the BFP, the homicide rate decreased by 0.3% (Rate Ratio:0.997; 95%CI:0.996-0.997) and hospitalizations from violence by 0.4% (RR: 0.996;95%CI:0.995-0.996). Rates of homicide and hospitalizations from violence were also negatively associated with the duration of BFP coverage. When, coverage of the target population was at least 70% for one-year, hospitalizations from violence decreased by 8%; two-years 14%, three-years 20%, and four years 25%.

INTERPRETATION

Our results support the hypothesis that conditional cash transfer programs might have as an additional benefit the prevention of homicides and hospitalizations from violence. Social protection interventions could contribute to decrease levels of violence in low-and-middle-income-countries through reducing poverty and/or socioeconomic inequalities.

Precise Assessment on Birth Information at the Civil Registry and Live Births Information System in Minas Gerais, Brazil

Abstract Objective: to assess the precision on birth information at the Civil Registry and Sistema de Informações Sobre Nascidos Vivos (Sinasc) (Live Births Information System) in Minas Gerais with the purpose to analyze the most recent fecundity level and pattern on women and to assess the hypotheses on the fertility component for populational projections adopted by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) in the 2013 review. Methods: the estimation level of under registration at the Civil Registry and Sinasc was based on the comparison of number of births registered by these sources with the number of births obtained from an independent source, estimated by the Brass P/F technique with adaptation. Results: in 2010, the coverage on the Civil Registry and Sinasc was 96.0% and 95.0%, respectively. In the period of 2003 to 2015, both sources point to the same trend. From 2011, the total number of births was practically the same. The corrected Total Fertility Rate and The Specific Fertility Rates had a very similar level and pattern in the period of 2010 to 2015. Discrepancies in the fertility hypotheses were observed from the IBGE. Conclusions: from 2010, the births registered in both data sources were considered as good statistical quality in Minas Gerais and the hypotheses of the fertility level and pattern in the IBGE projections need to be revised.

Caesarean sections and the prevalence of preterm and early-term births in Brazil: secondary analyses of national birth registration

OBJECTIVES

To investigate whether the high rates of caesarean sections (CSs) in Brazil have impacted on the prevalence of preterm and early-term births.

DESIGN

Individual-level, cross-sectional analyses of a national database.

SETTING

All hospital births occurring in the country in 2015.

PARTICIPANTS

2 903 716 hospital-delivered singletons in 3157 municipalities, representing >96% of the country's births.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

CS rates and gestational age distribution (<37, 37-38, 39-41 and 42 or more weeks' gestation). Outcomes were analysed according to maternal education, measured in years of schooling and municipal CS rates. Analyses were also adjusted for maternal age, marital status and parity.

RESULTS

Prevalence of CS was 55.5%, preterm prevalence (<37 weeks' gestation) was 10.1% and early-term births (37-38 weeks of gestation) represented 29.8% of all births, ranging from 24.9% among women with <4 years of schooling to 39.8% among those with >12 years of education. The adjusted prevalence ratios of preterm and early-term birth were, respectively, 1.215 (1.174-1.257) and 1.643 (1.616-1.671) higher in municipalities with≥80% CS compared with those <30%.

CONCLUSIONS

Brazil faces three inter-related epidemics: a CS epidemic; an epidemic of early-term births, associated with the high CS rates; and an epidemic of preterm birth, also associated with CS but mostly linked to poverty-related risk factors. The high rates of preterm and early-term births produce an excess of newborns at higher risk of short-term morbidity and mortality, as well as long-term developmental problems. Compared with high-income countries, there is an annual excess of 354 000 preterm and early-term births in Brazil.

Regional differences in the temporal evolution of stroke: a population-based study of Brazil according to sex in individuals aged 15-49 years between 1997 and 2012

Objective

The present study analyzed the temporal trend of stroke mortality according to sex in individuals aged 15–49 years in the different regions of Brazil between 1997 and 2012.

Results

There was progressive reduction in mortality rate due to stroke in Brazil. The reduction trend was the same for both sexes, although mortality remained slightly higher among men. There was a difference in mortality rates according to the administrative region of the country.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13104-018-3439-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Access to and use of health services as factors associated with neonatal mortality in the North, Northeast, and Vale do Jequitinhonha regions, Brazil

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the factors associated with neonatal mortality related to health services accessibility and use.

METHODS

Case-control study of live births in 2008 in small- and medium-sized municipalities in the North, Northeast, and Vale do Jequitinhonha regions, Brazil. A probabilistic sample stratified by region, population size, and information adequacy was generated for the choice of municipalities. Of these, all municipalities with 20,000 inhabitants or less were included in the study (36 municipalities), whereas the remainder were selected according to the probability method proportional to population size, totaling 20 cities with 20,001-50,000 inhabitants and 19 municipalities with 50,001-200,000 inhabitants. All deaths of live births in these cities were included. Controls were randomly sampled, considered as four times the number of cases. The sample size comprised 412 cases and 1772 controls. Hierarchical multiple logistic regression was used for data analysis.

RESULTS

The risk factors for neonatal death were socioeconomic class D and E (OR=1.28), history of child death (OR=1.74), high-risk pregnancy (OR=4.03), peregrination in antepartum (OR=1.46), lack of prenatal care (OR=2.81), absence of professional for the monitoring of labor (OR=3.34), excessive time waiting for delivery (OR=1.97), borderline preterm birth (OR=4.09) and malformation (OR=13.66).

CONCLUSION

These results suggest multiple causes of neonatal mortality, as well as the need to improve access to good quality maternal-child health care services in the assessed places of study.

Use of linkage to improve the completeness of the SIM and SINASC in the Brazilian capitals

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the contribution of linkage between databases of live births and infant mortality to improve the completeness of the variables common to the Mortality Information System (SIM) and the Live Birth Information System (SINASC) in Brazilian capitals in 2012.

METHODS

We studied 9,001 deaths of children under one year registered in the SIM in 2012 and 1,424,691 live births present in the SINASC in 2011 and 2012. The databases were related with linkage in two steps – deterministic and probabilistic. We calculated the percentage of incompleteness of the variables common to the SIM and SINASC before and after using the technique.

RESULTS

We could relate 90.8% of the deaths to their respective declarations of live birth, most of them paired deterministically. We found a higher percentage of pairs in Porto Alegre, Curitiba, and Campo Grande. In the capitals of the North region, the average of pairs was 84.2%; in the South region, this result reached 97.9%. The 11 variables common to the SIM and SINASC had 11,278 incomplete fields cumulatively, and we could recover 91.4% of the data after linkage. Before linkage, five variables presented excellent completeness in the SINASC in all Brazilian capitals, but only one variable had the same status in the SIM. After applying this technique, all 11 variables of the SINASC became excellent, while this occurred in seven variables of the SIM. The city of birth was significantly associated with the death component in the quality of the information.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite advances in the coverage and quality of the SIM and SINASC, problems in the completeness of the variables can still be identified, especially in the SIM. In this perspective, linkage can be used to qualify important information for the analysis of infant mortality.

Mortality in Brazil according to gender perspective, years 2000 and 2010

OBJECTIVE

The article assessed the overall mortality in Brazil in 2000 and 2010.

METHODS

Data source was the Mortality Information System from Ministry of Health of Brazil.

RESULTS

The data show the high rate of mortality among men compared to women between ages of 20 to 59 years and an expressive lower life expectancy by this population. The main groups of death were: external causes; diseases of the circulatory system, diseases of the digestive system, infectious and parasitic diseases, diseases of the respiratory system; mental and behavioral disorders; diseases of the nervous system; endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases; neoplasia and diseases of the genitourinary system.

CONCLUSION

Unequal gender relations and distinct characteristics of exposure to risk factors can explain this mortality, highlighting the need to bring critical incorporation of relational gender perspective by public health policies.

Tendência de mortalidade por lesões autoprovocadas intencionalmente no Brasil no período de 2004 a 2014

RESUMO Objetivo Analisar as tendências de mortalidade por lesões autoprovocadas intencionalmente segundo as faixas etárias e regiões do Brasil. Métodos Trata-se de um estudo epidemiológico, de desenho ecológico do tipo série temporal, utilizando dados do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade relacionada aos óbitos por lesões autoprovocadas intencionalmente ocorridos no período de 2004 a 2014. Resultados A análise de tendência indicou crescimento dos coeficientes de mortalidade, sendo que a curva do Brasil acentuou a elevação (R2 = 0,678). A região Sudeste mostrou a maior inclinação de reta (R2 = 0,960), sendo superior mesmo a tendência observada no Brasil. Os coeficientes de mortalidade segundo faixas etárias evidenciaram tendência crescente para a faixa de 10 a 19 anos (R2 = 0,429). No grupo etário de 20 a 29 anos no período analisado, não houve tendência de crescimento. Entretanto, houve incremento do número de óbitos a partir do ano de 2010. Procedeu-se avaliação desse grupo no período de 2010-2014, sendo assim evidenciada tendência crescente para a referida faixa (R2 = 0,927). Conclusão Os resultados apontam o crescimento dos coeficientes de mortalidade por lesões autoprovocadas intencionalmente no Brasil e em todas as suas regiões, sendo o grupo etário mais vulnerável o de 10 a 19 anos, seguido da faixa etária de 20 a 59 anos e de maiores de 60 anos.

Adequação das informações de mortalidade e correção dos óbitos informados a partir da Pesquisa de Busca Ativa

Resumo O objetivo deste artigo é propor indicadores de adequação e estimar fatores de correção para os óbitos informados ao SIM. Em 2014, foi realizada uma Pesquisa de Busca Ativa para captar óbitos ocorridos no ano de 2012 em uma amostra de municípios das regiões Norte e Nordeste, e dos estados de Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso e Goiás. Para caracterizar a cobertura das informações de óbitos, foram propostos indicadores de adequação por município. Os fatores de correção foram estimados para indivíduos com um ano ou mais de idade e para crianças menores de 1 ano. Entre os óbitos de 1 ano ou mais, as coberturas são superiores a 90% em 12 estados. Já para óbitos infantis, a cobertura foi inferior a 80% em 7 estados. Os resultados dos modelos de regressão mostraram associação entre os fatores de correção estimados e os indicadores de adequação propostos. Verificou-se grande precariedade das informações em 227 municípios, para os quais o número informado de óbitos infantis, mesmo corrigido, não conseguiu atingir o mínimo esperado. Embora os avanços conseguidos na informação dos dados vitais no Brasil sejam reconhecidos, os resultados mostram que o nosso maior desafio está em alcançar municípios rurais e remotos, que ainda não dispõem de informações vitais adequadas.

Captação de óbitos não informados ao Ministério da Saúde: pesquisa de busca ativa de óbitos em municípios brasileiros

RESUMO: Introdução: A busca ativa de óbitos é uma estratégia de captação de eventos que não foram informados ao Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM) do Ministério da Saúde (MS). Sua importância na redução do sub-registro de óbitos e na avaliação da operacionalização do sistema de informações é amplamente conhecida. Objetivo: Descrever a metodologia e os principais achados da pesquisa de busca ativa de óbitos realizada em 2013, estabelecendo a contribuição das diferentes fontes de informação. Métodos: A pesquisa foi realizada em 79 municípios brasileiros. Foram investigadas diversas fontes oficiais e não oficiais de informações sobre óbitos de residentes nesses municípios. Todas as fontes de informações investigadas e os casos encontrados foram digitados em um painel on-line. A segunda etapa da pesquisa foi de confirmação dos casos para verificar as informações sobre o ano do óbito e o município de residência, assim como para completar informações faltantes. Resultados: Foram encontrados 2.265 óbitos que não foram informados ao SIM. Desses, 49,3% foram encontrados em fontes não oficiais, cemitérios e funerárias. Em alguns municípios rurais, condições precárias de sepultamento foram encontradas em cemitérios no meio da mata, sem registro do falecido. Os fatores de correção foram inversamente associados ao nível de adequação das informações de mortalidade. Conclusão: Os achados confirmam a associação entre o nível de adequação das informações e a cobertura do registro de óbitos, e indicam que a aplicação de pesquisas de busca ativa é um método efetivo para capturar óbitos não informados ao MS.

Association between expansion of primary healthcare and racial inequalities in mortality amenable to primary care in Brazil: A national longitudinal analysis

BACKGROUND

Universal health coverage (UHC) can play an important role in achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 10, which addresses reducing inequalities, but little supporting evidence is available from low- and middle-income countries. Brazil's Estratégia de Saúde da Família (ESF) (family health strategy) is a community-based primary healthcare (PHC) programme that has been expanding since the 1990s and is the main platform for delivering UHC in the country. We evaluated whether expansion of the ESF was associated with differential reductions in mortality amenable to PHC between racial groups.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Municipality-level longitudinal fixed-effects panel regressions were used to examine associations between ESF coverage and mortality from ambulatory-care-sensitive conditions (ACSCs) in black/pardo (mixed race) and white individuals over the period 2000-2013. Models were adjusted for socio-economic development and wider health system variables. Over the period 2000-2013, there were 281,877 and 318,030 ACSC deaths (after age standardisation) in the black/pardo and white groups, respectively, in the 1,622 municipalities studied. Age-standardised ACSC mortality fell from 93.3 to 57.9 per 100,000 population in the black/pardo group and from 75.7 to 49.2 per 100,000 population in the white group. ESF expansion (from 0% to 100%) was associated with a 15.4% (rate ratio [RR]: 0.846; 95% CI: 0.796-0.899) reduction in ACSC mortality in the black/pardo group compared with a 6.8% (RR: 0.932; 95% CI: 0.892-0.974) reduction in the white group (coefficients significantly different, p = 0.012). These differential benefits were driven by greater reductions in mortality from infectious diseases, nutritional deficiencies and anaemia, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease in the black/pardo group. Although the analysis is ecological, sensitivity analyses suggest that over 30% of black/pardo deaths would have to be incorrectly coded for the results to be invalid. This study is limited by the use of municipal-aggregate data, which precludes individual-level inference. Omitted variable bias, where factors associated with ESF expansion are also associated with changes in mortality rates, may have influenced our findings, although sensitivity analyses show the robustness of the findings to pre-ESF trends and the inclusion of other municipal-level factors that could be associated with coverage.

CONCLUSIONS

PHC expansion is associated with reductions in racial group inequalities in mortality in Brazil. These findings highlight the importance of investment in PHC to achieve the SDGs aimed at improving health and reducing inequalities.

Infant mortality by color or race from Rondônia, Brazilian Amazon

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the quality of records for live births and infant deaths and to estimate the infant mortality rate for skin color or race, in order to explore possible racial inequalities in health.

METHODS

Descriptive study that analyzed the quality of records of the Live Births Information System and Mortality Information System in Rondônia, Brazilian Amazonian, between 2006-2009. The infant mortality rates were estimated for skin color or race with the direct method and corrected by: (1) proportional distribution of deaths with missing data related to skin color or race; and (2) application of correction factors. We also calculated proportional mortality by causes and age groups.

RESULTS

The capture of live births and deaths improved in relation to 2006-2007, which required lower correction factors to estimate infant mortality rate. The risk of death of indigenous infant (31.3/1,000 live births) was higher than that noted for the other skin color or race groups, exceeding by 60% the infant mortality rate in Rondônia (19.9/1,000 live births). Black children had the highest neonatal infant mortality rate, while the indigenous had the highest post-neonatal infant mortality rate. Among the indigenous deaths, 15.2% were due to ill-defined causes, while the other groups did not exceed 5.4%. The proportional infant mortality due to infectious and parasitic diseases was higher among indigenous children (12.1%), while among black children it occurred due to external causes (8.7%).

CONCLUSIONS

Expressive inequalities in infant mortality were noted between skin color or race categories, more unfavorable for indigenous infants. Correction factors proposed in the literature lack to consider differences in underreporting of deaths for skin color or race. The specific correction among the color or race categories would likely result in exacerbation of the observed inequalities.

[Use of vital data to estimate mortality indicators in Brazil: from the active search for events to the development of methods]

The article addresses Brazil's historical development in the use of vital data, incorporating procedures for the evaluation of such data and research with active search of births and deaths, resulting in the proposal of methods for calculating birth and mortality indicators through the use of continuous records. In addition to research to capture vital events from the years 2000 and 2008, the article presents procedures for the correction of events reported to the information systems and the paradigm shift in the method for calculating mortality indicators, resulting from such initiatives. The study also features advances in the adequacy of information on deaths and live births in Brazil, changes in the estimates on infant mortality resulting from the proposed methods, and the challenge of estimating the indicator for subnational geographic areas with lower population contingents, mostly consisting of municipalities (counties) with low and irregular data coverage.

Determinants of infant mortality in the Jequitinhonha Valley and in the North and Northeast regions of Brazil

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to identify the social and demographic determinants, in addition to the determinants of reproductive health and use of health services, associated with infant mortality in small and medium-sized cities of the North, Northeast and Southeast regions of Brazil.

METHODS

This is a case-control study with 803 cases of death of children under one year and 1,969 live births (controls), whose mothers lived in the selected cities in 2008. The lists of the names of cases and controls were extracted from the Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade (SIM - Mortality Information System) and the Sistema de Informação sobre Nascidos Vivos (SINASC - Live Birth Information System) and supplemented by data obtained by the research of "active search of death and birth". Data was collected in the household using a semi-structured questionnaire, and the analysis was carried out using multiple logistic regression.

RESULTS

The final model indicates that the following items are positively and significantly associated with infant mortality: family working in agriculture, mother having a history of fetal and infant losses, no prenatal or inadequate prenatal, and not being associated to the maternity hospital during the prenatal period. We have observed significant interactions to explain the occurrence of infant mortality between race and socioeconomic score and between high-risk pregnancy and pilgrimage for childbirth.

CONCLUSIONS

The excessive number of home deliveries and pilgrimage for childbirth indicates flaws in the line of maternity care and a lack of collaboration between the levels of outpatient and hospital care. The study reinforces the need for an integrated management of the health care networks, leveraging the capabilities of cities in meeting the needs of pregnancy, delivery and birth with quality.

OBJETIVO

Identificar os determinantes sociais, demográficos, da saúde reprodutiva e de utilização dos serviços de saúde associados ao óbito infantil em municípios de pequeno e médio porte das regiões Norte, Nordeste e Sudeste do Brasil.

MÉTODOS

Trata-se de um estudo caso-controle com 803 casos de óbito de menores de um ano e 1.969 nascidos vivos (controles), cujas mães residiam em 2008 nos municípios selecionados. As listas nominais dos casos e do controles foram extraídas do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade e do Sistema de Informação sobre Nascidos Vivos e completadas por dados obtidos pela pesquisa de "busca ativa de óbito e nascimento". A coleta de dados foi realizada em domicílio por meio de questionário semiestruturado, e a análise, por meio de regressão logística múltipla.

RESULTADOS

O modelo final indicou que estão associadas positivamente e significativamente ao óbito infantil: a família trabalhar na agricultura, a mãe ter tido história de perdas fetais e infantis, não ter feito pré-natal ou ter tido um pré-natal inadequado e não estar vinculada à maternidade durante o pré-natal. Foram observadas interações significativas para explicar a ocorrência do óbito infantil entre cor de pele e escore socioeconômico e entre gestação classificada como de risco e peregrinação para o parto.

CONCLUSÕES

O número excessivo de partos domiciliares e de peregrinação para o parto indica falhas na linha de cuidado da gestante e desarticulação entre os níveis de atenção ambulatorial e hospitalar. O estudo reforça a necessidade de uma gestão integrada das redes de atenção à saúde, potencializando as capacidades municipais em atender, com qualidade, à gestação, ao parto e ao nascimento.

Prevention of neural tube defects by the fortification of flour with folic acid: a population-based retrospective study in Brazil

Objective

To determine if the fortification of wheat and maize flours with iron and folic acid – which became mandatory in Brazil from June 2004 – is effective in the prevention of neural tube defects.

Methods

Using data from national information systems on births in central, south-eastern and southern Brazil, we determined the prevalence of neural tube defects among live births and stillbirths in a pre-fortification period – i.e. 2001–2004 – and in a post-fortification period – i.e. 2005–2014. We distinguished between anencephaly, encephalocele, meningocele, myelomeningocele and other forms of spina bifida.

Findings

There were 8554 neural tube defects for 17 925 729 live births notified between 2001 and 2014. For the same period, 2673 neural tube defects were reported for 194 858 stillbirths. The overall prevalence of neural tube defects fell from 0.79 per 1000 pre-fortification to 0.55 per 1000 post-fortification (prevalence ratio, PR: 1.43; 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.38–1.50). For stillbirths, prevalence fell from 17.74 per 1000 stillbirths pre-fortification to 11.70 per 1000 stillbirths post-fortification. The corresponding values among live births were 0.57 and 0.44, respectively.

Conclusion

The introduction of the mandatory fortification of flour with iron and folic acid in Brazil was followed by a significant reduction in the prevalence of neural tube defects in our study area.

Cobertura do Sistema de Informações sobre Nascidos Vivos e potenciais fontes de informação em municípios de pequeno porte em Minas Gerais, Brasil

Objetivos:estimar a cobertura do Sistema de Informações sobre Nascidos Vivos (SINASC) e a contribuição de potenciais fontes de informação de amostra de municípios da mesorregião do Jequitinhonha, Minas Gerais, em 2008.Métodos:a lista de nascidos vivos (NV) informados ao SINASC foi complementada por NV localizados por busca ativa em cartórios, unidades de saúde, secretarias de assistência social, informanteschave das comunidades, parteiras tradicionais, igrejas, farmácias e arquivos das secretarias municipais de saúde. A cobertura foi calculada a partir da relação de NV informados ao SINASC e total de NV após busca ativa.Resultados:os resultados indicaram uma cobertura precária do SINASC, sendo inferior a 60% em três dos cinco municípios estudados. Quase um quarto dos NV subenumerados não teve Declaração de Nascido Vivo (DN) emitida. As principais fontes de informação foram os cartórios, hospitais e Unidades Básicas de Saúde (UBS), correspondendo juntas ao total de 60% dos NV localizados pela busca ativa.Conclusões:o produto da busca ativa de NV indicou problemas na qualidade da informação dos registros vitais em municípios de pequeno porte, relacionados principalmente a problemas na coleta e no fluxo das informações do SINASC nesses municípios.

Avaliação da incompletude da declaração de óbitos de menores de um ano em Pernambuco, Brasil, 1999-2011

Resumo Com o objetivo de avaliar a incompletude no preenchimento da declaração de óbito (DO) nas Regionais de Saúde do estado de Pernambuco foi realizado um estudo descritivo a partir de informações sobre óbitos de menores de um ano residentes dos municípios de Pernambuco, provenientes do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade, nos triênios de 1999-2001 e 2009-2011. Foi calculado o percentual de incompletude considerando o preenchimento em branco/ignorado dos campos da DO por Regional de Saúde e a taxa de variação proporcional da incompletude entre os dois triênios. Observou-se que o preenchimento não apresentou um padrão bem definido para as Regionais, ocorrendo redução da incompletude para a maioria das variáveis, entretanto, apenas as variáveis sexo, faixa etária e local de ocorrência do óbito atingiram incompletude ≤ 5% no segundo triênio de estudo, considerado excelente nos escores de Romero e Cunha. Apesar do decréscimo da incompletude das variáveis relacionadas à gestação e parto e relacionadas à mãe, foi observado no segundo triênio incompletude entre 10 e 20%, atingindo escore regular no triênio 2009-2011. Apesar da melhoria do preenchimento no Estado, faz-se necessário o fortalecimento da vigilância e dos Comitês de Prevenção do Óbito Infantil para qualificação do preenchimento da DO.

A contribuição do linkage entre o SIM e SINASC para a melhoria das informações da mortalidade infantil em cinco cidades brasileiras

Objetivos: analisar a contribuição do linkage entre o Sistema de Informações sobre mortalidade (SIM) e o Sistema de informações sobre nascidos vivos (SINASC) para a melhoria da qualidade dos dados de mortalidade infantil (MI) em cinco cidades, sendo uma de cada macrorregião brasileira. Métodos: analisaramse os óbitos de menores de um ano registrados no SIM em 2005 e os nascidos vivos em 2004 e 2005 contidos no SINASC. As bases de dados foram relacionadas através do linkage. Verificouse a associação estatística entre o relacionamento dos dados e as cidades e os componentes da MI, bem como o percentual de incompletude dasvariáveis antes e após o linkage. Resultados: 90% dos óbitos foram relacionados à declaração de nascido vivo, sendo as cidades de Belém e Goiânia onde se obteve a menor proporção de registros pareados. Porto Alegre apresentou maior percentual de pares, seguida de Guarulhos e Recife. Verificouse uma influência significativa entre a cidade da criança e o componente do óbito na qualidade da informação. Dos 2464 campos incompletos para as variáveis comuns aos sistemas, 92% foram recuperados após o relacionamento das bases. Conclusões: a utilização dessa técnica possibilitou qualificar das estatísticas vitais e demonstrou o potencial de aplicação dessa estratégia na vigilância do óbito infantil nos serviços de saúde.

Income inequality is associated with adolescent fertility in Brazil: a longitudinal multilevel analysis of 5,565 municipalities

Background

Brazil has one of the highest adolescent fertility rates in the world. Income inequality has been frequently linked to overall adolescent health, but studies that analyzed its association with adolescent fertility have been performed only in developed countries. Brazil, in the past decade, has presented a rare combination of increasing per capita income and decreasing income inequality, which could influence future desirable pathways for other countries.

Methods

We analyzed every live birth from 2000 and from 2010 in each of the 5,565 municipalities of Brazil, a total of 6,049,864 births, which included 1,247,145 (20.6%) births from women aged 15 to 19. Income inequality was assessed by the Gini Coefficient and adolescent fertility by the ratio between the number of live births from women aged 15 to 19 and the number of women aged 15 to 19, calculated for each municipality. We first applied multilevel models separately for 2000 and 2010 to test the cross-sectional association between income inequality and adolescent fertility. We then fitted longitudinal first-differences multilevel models to control for time-invariant effects. We also performed a sensitivity analysis to include only municipality with satisfactory birth record coverage.

Results

Our results indicate a consistent and positive association between income inequality and adolescent fertility. After controlling for per capita income, college access, youth homicide rate and adult fertility, higher income inequality was significantly associated with higher adolescent fertility for both 2000 and 2010. The longitudinal multilevel models found similar results. The sensitivity analysis indicated that the results for the association between income inequality and adolescent fertility were robust. Adult fertility was also significantly associated with adolescent fertility in the cross-sectional and longitudinal models.

Conclusion

Income inequality is expected to be a leading concern for most countries in the near future. Our results suggest that changes in income inequality are positively and consistently associated with changes in adolescent fertility.

Mortalidade infantil nos municípios brasileiros: uma proposta de método de estimação

Objectivos: propor um método para estimação do Coeficiente de Mortalidade Infantil (CMI) por município, levando em consideração a subenumeração de óbitos e a estimação do CMI em áreas de pequeno porte populacional. Métodos: o método foi desenvolvido a partir da estimação de fatores de correção de óbitos e nascidos vivos por município, no triênio 2009-2011, através de indicadores construídos para caracterizar a cobertura das informações vitais. Foi proposto um procedimento para verificar se o número corrigido de óbitos infantis atingiu o valor mínimo esperado de acordo com o porte populacional do município. No caso de insuficiência do fator de correção, foram usados os valores preditos de uma regressão multivariada para estimar o CMI. Resultados: os modelos de estimação dos fatores de correção das estatísticas vitais mostraram correlações inversas e significativas com os indicadores que caracterizam a cobertura dos dados vitais. Os valores preditos dos fatores de correção foram aplicados para todos os municípios localizados nos estados que não têm informações vitais completas. Em apenas 230 municípios, a correção foi considerada insuficiente. Conclusões: os achados evidenciam que existem, ainda, grandes problemas a superar, como as persistentes desigualdades relacionadas ao desenvolvimento socioeconómico, o acesso à assistência de saúde e à omissão da informação de óbito, que compromete o dimensionamento da situação local.

Avaliação dos sistemas de informações sobre nascidos vivos e óbitos no Brasil na década de 2000

Resumo No Nordeste brasileiro, a morte por fogo é uma ameaça onipresente e banalizada entre mulheres empobrecidas. Este estudo antropológico descreve a experiência do sofrimento de ser queimada. Em 2009, foram investigados seis casos “ricos em informação” no Centro de Queimados, Fortaleza, Ceará, Brasil. Entrevistas etnográficas abertas com informantes-chave, narrativas de experiências vividas e observação participante na clínica e no domicílio foram realizadas. Utilizamos os métodos Análise de Conteúdo, Sistemas de Signos, Significados e Ações e Interpretação Semântica Contextualizada. Revelou-se que as metáforas emergentes são carregadas de significância cultural da “monstruosidade” e da violência de gênero pelo fogo – inscrita impiedosamente no corpo feminino. O “acidente por combustível” (álcool) esconde a cruel realidade de “carne crua e torrada”. A cicatriz é capaz de desfigurá-las em “não-pessoas”, maculando sua reputação moral e gerando a rejeição social. No Nordeste brasileiro, a vulnerabilidade social provocada pela sequela da queimadura exige uma política de humanização do cuidado.

[Correcting vital information: estimating infant mortality, Brazil, 2000-2009]

OBJECTIVE

To propose a simplified method of correcting vital information and estimating the coefficient of infant mortality in Brazil.

METHODS

Vital data in the information systems on mortality and live births were corrected using correction factors, estimated based on events not reported to the Brazilian Ministry of Health and obtained by active search. This simplified method for correcting vital information for the period 2000-2009 for Brazil and its federal units establishes the level of adequacy of information on deaths and live births by calculating the overall coefficient of mortality standardized by age and the ratio between reported and expected live births, respectively, in each Brazilian municipality. By applying correction factors to the number of deaths and live births reported in each county, the vital statistics were corrected, making it possible to estimate the coefficient of infant mortality.

RESULTS

The highest correction factors were related to infant deaths, reaching values higher than 7 for municipalities with very precarious mortality information. For deaths and live births, the correction factors exhibit a decreasing gradient as indicators of adequacy of the vital information improve. For the year 2008, the vital information corrected by the simplified method per state were similar to those obtained in the research of active search. Both the birth rate and the infant mortality rate decreased in the period in all Brazilian regions. In the Northeast, the annual rate of decline was 6.0%, the highest in Brazil (4.7%).

CONCLUSIONS

The active search of deaths and births allowed correction factors to be calculated by level of adequacy of mortality information and live births. The simplified method proposed here allowed vital information to be corrected per state for the period 2000-2009 and the progress of the coefficient of infant mortality in Brazil, its regions and states to be assessed.

Qualidade da informação sobre óbitos por causas externas em município de médio porte em Minas Gerais, Brasil

Objetivou-se avaliar a qualidade da informação sobre óbitos por causas externas em Viçosa, Minas Gerais, Brasil, entre 2000 e 2009, assim como a completude do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM). Como fonte de dados, utilizou-se o SIM/Secretaria Municipal de Saúde; Livros de Inquérito da Polícia Civil do município e, de forma complementar, artigos de um jornal de circulação local, sendo constituído um banco de dados com 495 óbitos por causas externas. Os resultados demonstraram elevada proporção de óbitos com intenção indeterminada (21%) registrados no SIM, implicando problemas na qualidade da informação. A comparação dos dados do SIM e da Polícia Civil indicou problemas de cobertura do primeiro (21%) e, consequentemente, nas estatísticas oficiais de mortalidade por acidentes e violências. Os resultados reforçam a importância da busca em outras fontes de informações a fim de qualificar o SIM e ampliar sua cobertura; além disso, destacam, principalmente, a necessidade de pesquisas que objetivem identificar e analisar problemas enfrentados por pequenos e médios municípios no que se refere à produção da informação sobre mortalidade.

Estimação da razão de mortalidade materna no Brasil, 2008-2011

Neste trabalho, propõe-se uma metodologia de estimação da razão de mortalidade materna (RMM), no Brasil, 2008-2011, por meio das informações do Ministério da Saúde. O método proposto leva em consideração, o sub-registro geral de óbitos, as proporções de investigação de mortes de mulheres em idade fértil, bem como as proporções de óbitos maternos que foram atribuídos, indevidamente, a outras causas antes da investigação. A RMM foi estimada por Unidade de Federação no triênio de 2009-2011. No Brasil, a RMM atinge o valor mínimo em 2011 (60,8/100 mil nascidos vivo) e o máximo em 2009 (73,1/100 mil nascidos vivos), explicado, provavelmente, pela epidemia de influenza A (H1N1). Os maiores valores da RMM foram encontrados no Maranhão e no Piauí, ultrapassando 100/100 mil nascidos vivos, e o menor foi apresentado por Santa Catarina, o único estado com magnitude inferior a 40/100 mil nascidos vivos. Os resultados indicaram valores superiores aos que deveriam ter sido alcançados de acordo com a quinta meta do milênio, mas apontaram para um decréscimo significativo no período de 1990-2011, se as estimativas anteriores da RMM forem consideradas.

Impact of primary health care on mortality from heart and cerebrovascular diseases in Brazil: a nationwide analysis of longitudinal data

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the impact of Brazil's recently implemented Family Health Program (FHP), the largest primary health care programme in the world, on heart and cerebrovascular disease mortality across Brazil from 2000 to 2009.

DESIGN

Ecological longitudinal design, evaluating the impact of FHP using negative binomial regression models for panel data with fixed effects specifications.

SETTING

Nationwide analysis of data from Brazilian municipalities covering the period from 2000 to 2009.

DATA SOURCES

1622 Brazilian municipalities with vital statistics of adequate quality.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The annual FHP coverage and the average FHP coverage in previous years were used as main independent variables and classified as none (0%), incipient (<30%), intermediate (30-69%), or consolidated (≥ 70%). Age standardised mortality rates from causes in the group of cerebrovascular (ICD-10 codes I60-69), ischaemic (ICD-10 I20-25), and other forms of heart diseases (ICD-10 I30-52), which were included in the national list of ambulatory care-sensitive conditions, were calculated for each municipality for each year. They accounted for 40% of all deaths from these groups during the study period.

RESULTS

FHP coverage was negatively associated with mortality rates from cerebrovascular and heart diseases (ambulatory care-sensitive conditions) in both unadjusted and adjusted models for demographic, social, and economic confounders. The FHP had no effect on the mortality rate for accidents, used as a control. The rate ratio for the effect of consolidated annual FHP coverage on cerebrovascular disease mortality and on heart disease mortality was 0.82 (95% confidence interval 0.79 to 0.86) and 0.79 (0.75 to 0.80) respectively, reaching the value of 0.69 (0.66 to 0.73) and 0.64 (0.59 to 0.68) when the coverage was consolidated during all the previous eight years. Moreover, FHP coverage increased the number of health education activities, domiciliary visits, and medical consultations and reduced hospitalisation rates for cerebrovascular and heart disease. Several complementary analyses showed quantitatively similar results.

CONCLUSIONS

Comprehensive and community based primary health care programmes, such as the FHP in Brazil, acting through cardiovascular disease prevention, care, and follow-up can contribute to decreased cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality in a developing country such as Brazil.

Análise espacial da mortalidade infantil e adequação das informações vitais: uma proposta para definição de áreas prioritárias

Estudo ecológico que objetivou analisar a relação entre o comportamento espacial da mortalidade infantil e a adequação das informações vitais. Para avaliar a adequação das informações sobre nascimentos (Sinasc) e óbitos (SIM) do Ministério da Saúde foi utilizado um método, já validado, que é constituído por cinco indicadores calculados por município, segundo o porte populacional. Os municípios foram classificados em: informações vitais consolidadas, em fase de consolidação ou não consolidadas. Na análise espacial, foram gerados os Polígonos de Voronoi para minimizar os problemas de proximidade entre os municípios, e o índice de Moran local para identificação dos agregados espaciais de mortalidade infantil. Identificou-se que 76,6% dos municípios apresentaram informações vitais consolidadas. Houve formação de cluster para a mortalidade infantil em 34 municípios, formando três agregados espaciais. Verificou-se associação entre a adequação das informações vitais e o comportamento espacial da mortalidade infantil. As técnicas de geoestatística foram preditivas na identificação de agregados espaciais com informações vitais consolidadas. A proposta contribuirá para a melhoria da qualidade da informação e o planejamento de ações visando à redução da mortalidade infantil.

[The spatial inequality of low birth weight in Brazil]

Low birth weight (LBW) is a risk factor for neonatal and infant morbidity and mortality. In Brazil the highest percentages of low birth weight occur in regions of higher socio-economic status. The scope of this article is to ascertain the spatial distribution of low birth weight rates and the correlation with social and service indicators. The scale is ecological taking all the Brazilian states as units of analysis. The spatial analysis technique is the methodology used together with data from SINASC, IPEA and IBGE for 2009. Higher rates of low birth weight are found in the south/southeastern states (Global Moran: 0.267, p = 0.02). Clusters of the high-high type in the Southeast and of the low-low variety in states in the Amazon region are detected. The spatial inequality of low birth weight reflects the socio-economic conditions of the states. More developed regions have higher rates of low birth weight, therefore, the presence of the service and its use decrease infant mortality and increase LBW.

Correction of vital statistics based on a proactive search of deaths and live births: evidence from a study of the North and Northeast regions of Brazil

Background

In the last 20 years, Brazil has undergone dramatic changes in terms of socioeconomic development and health care. In the first decade of the 2000s, the Ministry of Health (MoH) developed a series of programs focused on reducing infant mortality, including the Family Health Program as a national policy for primary care. In this paper, we propose a method to correct underreporting of deaths and live births. After vital statistics are corrected, infant mortality trends are analyzed for the period 2000–2010 by macro-geographical region.

Methods

A proactive search of live births and deaths was carried out in the Amazon and Northeast regions in 2010 to find vital events that occurred in 2008 and were not reported to the Ministry of Health. The probabilistic sample of 133 municipalities was stratified by adequacy of vital information reporting. For each municipality, the adequacy analysis was based on the reported age-standardized mortality rate per 1,000 population and the ratio between reported and estimated live births. Correction factors were estimated by strata based on additional vital events found in the proactive search. The procedure was generalized to correct municipal vital statistics for the period 2000–2010.

Results

In the proactive search, 35% of non-reported deaths were found within the health system (hospitals and other health establishments), but 28% were found in non-official sources, like illegal cemeteries. In areas of extreme poverty and unreliable vital information, the estimated completeness of infant death reporting was only 33%. After correction of vital information, the estimated infant mortality rate decreased from 26.1 in 2000 to 16.0 in 2010, with an annual rate of decrease of 4.7%, greater than the required rate to achieve the Millennium Development Goal. Among Brazilian regions, the Northeast showed the largest decrease, from 38.4 to 20.1 per 1,000 live births.

Conclusions

The proactive search for vital events was shown to be a good strategy both in terms of understanding local irregularities and for correcting vital statistics. The methodology could be applied in other countries to routinely assess the pattern and extent of birth and death under-registration in order to improve the utility of these data to inform health policies.

Reducing inequities in neonatal mortality through adequate supply of health workers: evidence from newborn health in Brazil

INTRODUCTION

Progress towards the MDG targets on maternal and child mortality is hindered worldwide by large differentials between poor and rich populations. Using the case of Brazil, we investigate the extent to which policies and interventions seeking to increase the accessibility of health services among the poor have been effective in decreasing neonatal mortality.

METHODS

With a panel data set for the 4,267 Minimum Comparable Areas (MCA) in Brazil in 1991 and 2000, we use a fixed effect regression model to evaluate the effect of the provision of physicians, nurse professionals, nurse associates and community health workers on neonatal mortality for poor and non-poor areas. We additionally forecasted the neonatal mortality rate in 2005.

RESULTS

We find that the provision of health workers is particularly important for neonatal mortality in poor areas. Physicians and especially nurse professionals have been essential in decreasing neonatal mortality: an increase of one nurse professional per 1000 population is associated with a 3.8% reduction in neonatal mortality while an increase of one physician per 1000 population is associated with a 2.3% reduction in neonatal mortality. We also find that nurse associates are less important for neonatal mortality (estimated reduction effect of 1.2% ) and that community health workers are not important particularly among the poor. Differences in the provision of health workers explain a large proportion of neonatal mortality.

DISCUSSION

In this paper, we show new evidence to inform decision making on maternal and newborn health. Reductions in neonatal mortality in Brazil have been hampered by the unequal distribution of health workers between poor and non-poor areas. Thus, special attention to a more equitable health system is required to allocate the resources in order to improve the health of poor and ensure equitable access to health services to the entire population.

Effect of a conditional cash transfer programme on childhood mortality: a nationwide analysis of Brazilian municipalities

BACKGROUND

In the past 15 years, Brazil has undergone notable social and public health changes, including a large reduction in child mortality. The Bolsa Familia Programme (BFP) is a widespread conditional cash transfer programme, launched in 2003, which transfers cash to poor households (maximum income US$70 per person a month) when they comply with conditions related to health and education. Transfers range from $18 to $175 per month, depending on the income and composition of the family. We aimed to assess the effect of the BFP on deaths of children younger than 5 years (under-5), overall and resulting from specific causes associated with poverty: malnutrition, diarrhoea, and lower respiratory infections.

METHODS

The study had a mixed ecological design. It covered the period from 2004-09 and included 2853 (of 5565) municipalities with death and livebirth statistics of adequate quality. We used government sources to calculate all-cause under-5 mortality rates and under-5 mortality rates for selected causes. BFP coverage was classified as low (0·0-17·1%), intermediate (17·2-32·0%), high (>32·0%), or consolidated (>32·0% and target population coverage ≥100% for at least 4 years). We did multivariable regression analyses of panel data with fixed-effects negative binomial models, adjusted for relevant social and economic covariates, and for the effect of the largest primary health-care scheme in the country (Family Health Programme).

FINDINGS

Under-5 mortality rate, overall and resulting from poverty-related causes, decreased as BFP coverage increased. The rate ratios (RR) for the effect of the BFP on overall under-5 mortality rate were 0·94 (95% CI 0·92-0·96) for intermediate coverage, 0·88 (0·85-0·91) for high coverage, and 0·83 (0·79-0·88) for consolidated coverage. The effect of consolidated BFP coverage was highest on under-5 mortality resulting from malnutrition (RR 0·35; 95% CI 0·24-0·50) and diarrhoea (0·47; 0·37-0·61).

INTERPRETATION

A conditional cash transfer programme can greatly contribute to a decrease in childhood mortality overall, and in particular for deaths attributable to poverty-related causes such as malnutrition and diarrhoea, in a large middle-income country such as Brazil.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Science and Technology Programme, Ministry of Science and Technology, and Council for Scientific and Technological Development Programme (CNPq), Brazil.

Análise da cobertura do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade em Olinda, Pernambuco, Brasil

Neste trabalho, analisa-se a cobertura do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM) em Olinda, Pernambuco, Brasil, no ano de 2008. O estudo envolveu dados secundários sobre óbitos não fetais de residentes do município obtidos do SIM e dados primários da pesquisa Busca Ativa de Óbitos e Nascimentos no Nordeste e Amazônia Legal, que coletou os eventos em múltiplas fontes e localizou óbitos não informados ao sistema. A cobertura foi representada pela proporção de óbitos constantes no SIM em relação ao total informado (SIM + busca ativa). O estudo identificou 94,8% de cobertura e observou a importante contribuição dos cartórios para o conhecimento dos óbitos ausentes no SIM. Desses, 29,7% ocorreram em estabelecimentos de saúde; 49% ocorreram em domicílio e foram atestados por médicos particulares; e 25,5% do total de óbitos localizados foram atestados pelo IML. O método aplicado permitiu identificar a cobertura do SIM em município de região metropolitana. Apesar da pequena proporção de óbitos ausentes no SIM, o estudo sinalizou problemas relacionados à coleta e fluxo.

Avaliação da implantação do Sistema de Informações sobre Nascidos Vivos (Sinasc) em Pernambuco

OBJETIVOS: avaliar o estágio de implantação do Sistema de Informações sobre Nascidos Vivos (Sinasc) em Pernambuco. MÉTODOS: trata-se de uma pesquisa avaliativa do tipo análise de implantação, que relaciona o grau de implantação aos resultados. Para aferição do grau de implantação foi realizada uma avaliação normativa, segundo a abordagem de Donabedian (1980). O estudo foi desenvolvido em duas etapas: 1ª) Foi construído o modelo lógico expondo os componentes do sistema, após consulta aos documentos, e elaborada a matriz de indicadores e de julgamento; 2ª) Foram realizadas: entrevistas individuais e observação direta, de acordo com a matriz de indicadores no âmbito estadual e regional; análise dos documentos e do banco de dados do Sinasc. RESULTADOS: os resultados mostraram o Sinasc como "implantado" (80,8%) no nível central estadual, enquanto no âmbito regional o grau de implantação variou entre "parcialmente implantado avançado" (69,3%) e "parcialmente implantado incipiente" (43,3%). CONCLUSÕES: este estudo revelou aspectos organizacionais e operacionais do Sinasc que precisam ser implementados para manter o padrão de cobertura ideal e excelente qualidade das informações.

[Postnatal mortality in Brazilian territory: a literature review]

This is a systematic review regarding postnatal mortality, covering the period between 2004 and 2009. The objective was to identify how the causes of death and the relationship with socioeconomic conditions are stated in the literature. Twenty-seven articles were selected, 74.4% of which were published in public health journals, with 66.7% having an ecological study design. Nearly all articles addressed cause groups and their components (66.7%), followed by the remaining third, which addressed the identification of the determinant factors of the deaths. The Southeast region produced over 37% of the studies. In most Brazilians cities and states, there was a reduction of deaths by more than 50% by the end of the 1900s. Among the cause of death groups, the diarrhea-pneumonia group was predominant, followed by congenital abnormalities. The basic life conditions according to socioeconomic indicators - housing, basic sanitation, education, and accessibility to health - were determinants for the highest postnatal death rates due to reducible causes.

Uso da metodologia de relacionamento de bases de dados para qualificação da informação sobre mortalidade infantil nos municípios de Pernambuco

OBJETIVOS: identificar a completitude e a consistência dos dados do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade (SIM) e do Sistema de Informação sobre Nascidos Vivos (Sinasc) em Pernambuco e analisar a qualidade das informações sobre mortalidade infantil obtida a partir desses sistemas. MÉTODOS: relacionou-se as bases de dados do SIM e do Sinasc por meio da técnica de linkage, utilizando os métodos determinístico e probabilístico. O banco de dados obtido foi analisado segundo o tipo de relacionamento, componente da mortalidade infantil e porte populacional dos municípios de residência. Para a análise do preenchimento dos campos dos registros foram consideradas as variáveis comuns aos dois sistemas. RESULTADOS: o linkage determinístico contribuiu fortemente para a identificação dos pares verdadeiros dos óbitos neonatais, enquanto que o método probabilístico permitiu o resgate de grande parte dos registros pós-neonatais, especialmente em municípios menores. Além disso, foi observado um aumento significativo na completitude das informações analisadas, com uma maior contribuição do Sinasc para o incremento de informações no SIM. CONCLUSÃO: o linkage possibilitou uma redução no percentual de campos ignorados de todas as variáveis analisadas para menos de 1%, em ambos os sistemas, mostrando-se uma importante ferramenta para o conhecimento e aprimoramento da qualidade das informações sobre mortalidade infantil.