|
1
|
Zhu M, Kleepbua J, Guan Z, Chew SP, Tan JW, Shen J, Latthitham N, Hu J, Law JX, Li L. Early Spatiotemporal Patterns and Population Characteristics of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Southeast Asia. Healthcare (Basel) 2021; 9:1220. [PMID: 34574997 PMCID: PMC8466219 DOI: 10.3390/healthcare9091220] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/28/2021] [Revised: 09/02/2021] [Accepted: 09/10/2021] [Indexed: 12/28/2022] Open
Abstract
This observational study aims to investigate the early disease patterns of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Southeast Asia, consequently providing historical experience for further interventions. Data were extracted from official websites of the WHO and health authorities of relevant countries. A total of 1346 confirmed cases of COVID-19, with 217 recoveries and 18 deaths, were reported in Southeast Asia as of 16 March 2020. The basic reproductive number (R0) of COVID-19 in the region was estimated as 2.51 (95% CI:2.31 to 2.73), and there were significant geographical variations at the subregional level. Early transmission dynamics were examined with an exponential regression model: y = 0.30e0.13x (p < 0.01, R2 = 0.96), which could help predict short-term incidence. Country-level disease burden was positively correlated with Human Development Index (r = 0.86, p < 0.01). A potential early shift in spatial diffusion patterns and a spatiotemporal cluster occurring in Malaysia and Singapore were detected. Demographic analyses of 925 confirmed cases indicated a median age of 44 years and a sex ratio (male/female) of 1.25. Age may play a significant role in both susceptibilities and outcomes. The COVID-19 situation in Southeast Asia is challenging and unevenly geographically distributed. Hence, enhanced real-time surveillance and more efficient resource allocation are urgently needed.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Mingjian Zhu
- State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310003, China; (M.Z.); (Z.G.); (J.S.)
| | - Jirapat Kleepbua
- Thammasat University Hospital, Pathum Thani 12120, Thailand; (J.K.); (N.L.)
| | - Zhou Guan
- State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310003, China; (M.Z.); (Z.G.); (J.S.)
| | - Sien Ping Chew
- School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200025, China;
| | - Joanna Weihui Tan
- Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore 117570, Singapore;
| | - Jian Shen
- State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310003, China; (M.Z.); (Z.G.); (J.S.)
| | | | - Jianxiong Hu
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China;
| | - Jia Xian Law
- Tuanku Ja’afar Hospital, Seremban 70300, Malaysia;
| | - Lanjuan Li
- State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310003, China; (M.Z.); (Z.G.); (J.S.)
| |
Collapse
|