Análise de séries temporais em epidemiologia: uma introdução sobre os aspectos metodológicos

Temporal relationship between human and canine visceral leishmaniasis in an urban area in southeastern Brazil: An application of the ARIMAX model

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected disease of public and animal health importance. With the urbanization of the disease, there is evidence of a temporal correlation between the occurrence of human (HVL) and canine (CVL) visceral leishmaniasis, usually with cases in dogs preceding those in humans. In this context, the objective of this study was to develop a time series model suitable for canine-human transmission of Leishmania infantum. Monthly cases of HVL and CVL from 2006 to 2018 in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil, were evaluated, and monthly health indicators were calculated for HVL and CVL, i.e., incidence coefficient (HVL_IC) and proportion of seropositive dogs (PSD), respectively. The temporal relationship was evaluated using an autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variable (ARIMAX) model for two different periods (January 2006-August 2013 and September 2013-December 2018). During the 13 years studied, 1115 new cases of HVL and 103,358 dogs seropositive for CVL were recorded. HVL_IC and PSD exhibited decreasing trends throughout the first study period (January 2006-August 2013). According to the ARIMAX model adjusted for this period, there was a temporal relationship between HVL_IC and PSD, with HVL_IC being influenced by HVL_IC for the last two and five months and by PSD for the third previous month. For the second study period (September 2013-December 2018), it was not possible to fit an ARIMAX model. This study highlights the improvements made by VL surveillance since 2006 in Belo Horizonte and contributes to a better understanding of the epidemiology of the disease by public health policy-makers, doctors and veterinarians involved in the prevention and control of zoonoses.

Temporal trend, distribution and spatial autocorrelation of leprosy in Brazil: ecological study, 2011 to 2021

OBJECTIVE

To characterize the temporal trend and spatial behavior of leprosy in Brazil, from 2011 to 2021.

METHODS

This is an ecological study, with data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System, obtained in June 2022. The annual detection rate of new leprosy cases per 100 thousand inhabitants was calculated. To estimate the trend of the 2011-2019 and 2011-2021 series, the polynomial regression model was used, testing first-, second-, and third-order polynomials. For spatiality, natural breaks were used and, later, the univariate global and local Moran's indexes. A significance level of 5% was adopted and the analyses were performed using SPSS®, GeoDa®, and QGIS® software.

RESULTS

The findings indicated an upward trend in the incidence of leprosy in Brazilian regions and in 20 federative units between 2011 and 2019. However, there was a decrease in most of the country when considering the COVID-19 pandemic years. Spatiality showed that the highest detection rates throughout the period were observed in the North, Midwest, and Northeast regions, with high-risk clusters, and the lowest detection rates in the South and Southeast regions, with low-risk clusters.

CONCLUSION

The leprosy detection rate showed an upward trend in Brazil between 2011 and 2019, with greater spatial concentration in the North, Northeast, and Midwest regions. Nevertheless, the study raises an alert for the programmatic sustainability of leprosy control in Brazil, considering the drop in the COVID-19 pandemic, presumably due to the influence of the reorganization of the development of initiatives and provision of services in face of COVID-19.

Temporal and spatial analysis of municipal dengue cases in Paraná and social and environmental indicators, 2012 to 2021: ecological study

OBJECTIVE

Analyze the temporal trend and spatial distribution of the incidence rate of dengue cases in Paraná and its regions between 2012 to 2021 and investigate associated sociodemographic and environmental variables.

METHODS

Ecological study with temporal and spatial analysis of the dengue incidence rate reported in the Disease and Notification Information System (SINAN) in the period 2012 to 2021 and investigation of sociodemographic and environmental variables. To identify differences between municipal incidence rates the Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis test followed by Dunn's test for multiple comparisons were used. Prais-Winsten regression was used for temporal trend analysis and for spatial analysis the univariate and bivariate Local Moran analysis were applied.

RESULTS

548,683 cases of dengue were confirmed in the period, the highest state incidence rate was observed in 2020, with 15 health regions presenting more than 500 cases/100,000 inhabitants. Higher incidences were observed among women, age group of 20-59 years and white color/race. Despite annual variations, a stationary trend was observed for incidence rates according to sex, age group, color/race and macro-region. More than half of the municipalities in Paraná formed spatial clusters (Moran's I=0.679), where 73 (18.3%) municipalities with high incidence rate formed clusters. High-High clusters of dengue incidence rate with urbanization and High-Low clusters of incidence rate with vegetation cover were observed.

CONCLUSION

Sociodemographic and environmental determinants were related to the high incidence rates of dengue and heterogeneous spatial distribution in the state of Paraná, indicating the need to strengthen health surveillance actions.

Space-Time Clustering and Socioeconomic Factors Associated with Mortality from Diarrhea in Alagoas, Northeastern Brazil: A 20-Year Population-Based Study

Acute diarrhea is the second leading cause of death among children in developing countries and is strongly related with the socioeconomic conditions of the population. In Brazil, data show a drop in the diarrhea mortality rate. Nevertheless, the northeastern region still has the most deaths. Considering this, we analyze high-risk areas for diarrhea- and gastroenteritis-related deaths, and their association with social determinants of health (SDH) in the state with one of the worst human development indicators in Brazil (Alagoas) between 2000 and 2019. We applied temporal, spatial, and space−time risk modelling. We used a log-linear regression model to assess temporal trends and the local empirical Bayesian estimator, the global and local Moran indices for spatial analysis. Spearman’s correlation was used to correlate mortality rates with SDH. A total of 3472 diarrhea-related deaths were reported during this period in Alagoas. We observed a decreasing time trend of deaths in the state (9.41/100,000 in 2000 to 2.21 in 2019; APC = −6.7; p-value < 0.001), especially in children under one year of age. However, there was stability among adults and the elderly. We identified two high-risk spatiotemporal clusters of mortality in inland municipalities. Lastly, mortality rates correlated significantly with 90% of SDH. Taken together, these findings indicate that diarrhea diseases remain a serious public health concern in Alagoas, mainly in the poorest and inland municipalities. Thereby, it is urgently necessary to invest in measures to control and prevent cases, and improve the living conditions of the poorest populations and those with the highest social vulnerability index.

Análise temporal e espacial dos casos municipais de dengue no Paraná e indicadores sociais e ambientais, 2012 a 2021: estudo ecológico

RESUMO Objetivo: Analisar a tendência temporal e a distribuição espacial da taxa de incidência de casos de dengue no Paraná e suas regiões entre 2012 e 2021 e investigar variáveis sociodemográficas e ambientais associadas. Métodos: Estudo ecológico com análises temporais e espaciais da taxa de incidência da dengue registrada no Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação, de 2012 e 2021, e investigação de variáveis sociodemográficas e ambientais. Para analisar as taxas de incidência municipais foram utilizados os testes de Mann-Whitney e Kruskal-Wallis, seguidos do teste de Dunn para múltiplas comparações. Utilizou-se para análise da tendência temporal a regressão de Prais-Winsten, e para a análise espacial, o índice de Moran Local univariado e bivariado. Resultados: Foram confirmados 548.683 casos de dengue no período, apresentando a maior taxa de incidência estadual em 2020, com 15 regionais de saúde registrando mais de 500 casos/100 mil habitantes. Maiores incidências ficaram entre mulheres, faixa etária de 20-59 anos e cor/raça branca. Apesar de variações anuais, observou-se tendência estacionária para incidência segundo sexo, faixa etária, cor e macrorregião. Mais da metade dos municípios paranaenses formou aglomerados espaciais (Moran’s 1=0,679) — 73 (18,3%) municípios com alta taxa de incidência formaram agrupamentos. Foram identificados agrupamentos da taxa de incidência da dengue com o grau de urbanização (alto-alto) e com o percentual de cobertura vegetal natural (alto-baixa). Conclusão: Determinantes sociodemográficos e ambientais relacionaram-se com as altas taxas de incidência da dengue e com a distribuição espacial heterogênea no estado do Paraná, indicando a necessidade do fortalecimento das ações de vigilância em saúde.

Tendência temporal, distribuição e autocorrelação espacial da hanseníase no Brasil: estudo ecológico, 2011 a 2021

RESUMO Objetivo: Caracterizar a tendência temporal e o comportamento espacial da hanseníase no Brasil, de 2011 a 2021. Métodos: Estudo ecológico, com dados do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação, obtidos em junho de 2022. Calculou-se a taxa de detecção anual de casos novos de hanseníase por 100 mil habitantes. Para estimar a tendência das séries 2011–2019 e 2011–2021, empregou-se o modelo de regressão polinomial, testando polinômios de primeira, segunda e terceira ordem. Para a espacialidade, utilizaram-se as quebras naturais e, posteriormente, as estatísticas univariadas de Moran global e local. Adotou-se o nível de significância de 5% e as análises foram realizadas no Statistical Package for the Social Sciences — SPSS®, GeoDa® e QGIS®. Resultados: Os achados apontaram para a tendência crescente da incidência de hanseníase no Brasil, nas regiões e em 20 unidades da federação entre 2011 e 2019; contudo, houve decréscimo em grande parte do país ao se considerarem os anos pandêmicos. A espacialidade revelou que as maiores taxas de detecção, em todo o período, foram observadas nas Regiões Norte, Centro-Oeste e Nordeste, com clusters de alto risco, e as menores nas Regiões Sul e Sudeste, com aglomerados de baixo risco. Conclusão: A taxa de detecção da hanseníase apresentou tendência crescente no Brasil entre 2011 e 2019, com maior concentração espacial nas Regiões Norte, Nordeste e Centro-Oeste. Entretanto, o estudo traz um alerta para a sustentabilidade programática do controle da hanseníase no Brasil, dada a queda evidenciada na pandemia, presumivelmente por influência da reorganização da oferta de ações e serviços anteposta àCOVID-19.

Tuberculosis forecasting and temporal trends by sex and age in a high endemic city in northeastern Brazil: where were we before the Covid-19 pandemic?

Background

The aim of this study was to describe the temporal trend of tuberculosis cases according to sex and age group and evidence the level of disease before the Covid-19 pandemic in a TB high endemic city.

Methods

This was a time series study carried out in a city in northeast Brazil. The population was composed of cases of tuberculosis, excluding those with HIV-positive status, reported between the years 2002 and 2018. An exploratory analysis of the monthly rates of tuberculosis detection, smoothed according to sex and age group, was performed. Subsequently, the progression of the trend and prediction of the disease were also characterized according to these aspects. For the trends forecast, the seasonal autoregressive linear integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the usual Box-Jenkins method were used to choose the most appropriate models.

Results

A total of 1620 cases of tuberculosis were reported, with an incidence of 49.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in men and 34.0 per 100,000 in women. Regarding the incidence for both sexes, there was a decreasing trend, which was similar for age. Evidence resulting from the application of the time series shows a decreasing trend in the years 2002–2018, with a trend of stability.

Conclusions

The study evidenced a decreasing trend in tuberculosis, even before the Covid-19 pandemic, for both sex and age; however, in a step really slow from that recommended by the World Health Organization. According to the results, the disease would have achieved a level of stability in the city next years, however it might have been aggravated by the pandemic. These findings are relevant to evidence the serious behavior and trends of TB in a high endemic scenario considering a context prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Trend and factors associated with Tuberculosis-Diabetes Mellitus comorbidity in a Northeastern Brazilian municipality

OBJECTIVES

to identify the trend and factors associated with Tuberculosis-Diabetes Mellitus comorbidity in Imperatriz, Maranhão.

METHODS

epidemiological temporal-series study, conducted in a Northeastern Brazilian municipality. The population consisted of Tuberculosis cases with Diabetes Mellitus-associated aggravation notified in the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN) between 2009 and 2018. We determined the prevalence and trend of comorbidity using Prais-Winsten regressions and to identify associated factors employed Poisson regression.

RESULTS

prevalence ranged from 3.23% in 2014 to 19.51% in 2018, with a mean of 11.5% for the period, showing an increasing trend. Age groups 30 to 59 years and ≥ 60 years, education < 8 years, and clinical form of pulmonary Tuberculosis were risk factors for comorbidity.

CONCLUSIONS

The increasing trend of comorbidity and its associated factors alert us to the need to improve customer service at all levels of health care.

Impact and trend of COVID-19 in the Brazilian prison system: an ecological study

Given the rapid spread of new coronavirus within the prison system, this study's objective was to identify spatial clusters for the occurrence of COVID-19 in the incarcerated population and analyze temporal trends of confirmed cases in the Brazilian prison system. This ecological study considered the five Brazilian macro-regions to be units of analysis, with its 26 states and the Federal District. The population was composed of all COVID-19 cases confirmed from April 14th to August 31st, 2020. The source used to collect data was the COVID-19 Monitoring Panel from the National Prison Department. Descriptive analysis, scan statistics, and time series were performed. A total of 18,767 COVID-19 cases were reported among the incarcerated population, 4,724 in São Paulo. The scan statistic analysis resulted in 14 spatial risk clusters for COVID-19 among persons deprived of liberty; the highest-risk cluster was in the Federal District. Although the country ends the series with a decreasing behavior, a growing trend was verified in most of the study period. The conclusion is that there is a need to implement mass testing among the incarcerated population while continually monitoring and recording COVID-19 cases.

Homicide mortality in border regions in the State of Paraná, Brazil

A time series analysis was conducted to identify trends in homicide mortality in border regions in the State of Paraná, Brazil between 2002 and 2012. Homicide mortality rates were analyzed by sex, age group, region (border regions, non-border regions, and the state as a whole), and type of assault. Trend analysis was performed using polynomial regression. The findings showed that mortality rates were higher in the border regions; however the growth in homicide rates was greater in the non-border regions and in the state as a whole, with these states showing an upward trend in homicide rates (p < 0.001) and border regions showing a downward trend, although the latter was not significant. Mortality rates were higher among men across all regions and highest in the 20 to 29 age group. The findings regarding homicide rates in border regions provide compelling evidence of the urgent need for intersectoral prevention policies targeting the most affected groups.

Trends of syphilis in Brazil: A growth portrait of the treponemic epidemic

Syphilis is a chronic infectious disease with its prevalence being described since the 15th century. Although its etiological agent and also the treatment measures are widely known, syphilis is still a great public health problem worldwide, mainly in countries with limited resources associated to low investments in health primary care. The aim of the present study was to analyze the trend and regional distribution of syphilis in Brazil between 2007 and 2017. This is an ecological study using secondary data from the Brazilian notification system. The Ministry of Health selected 100 municipalities which presented the worse outcomes related to syphilis from the 5,570 Brazilian municipalities as a target for a comprehensive project in order to tackle the prevalence of syphilis, called the "No Syphilis Project". These priority municipalities represent 57.7% of syphilis cases and about one third of the Brazilian population. They were compared with other 189 non-priority municipalities with more than 100 thousand inhabitants among the Brazilian regions (North, Northeast, Southeast, South and Center-West). Polynomial regression methods and Joinpoint analyses were used to analyze the trend, from which the Annual Average Percent Change (AACP) for each time period was calculated. There was a significant growth trend in all regions for the main three forms of syphilis (in pregnancy, congenital and acquired), especially in the South. The ratio between syphilis in pregnancy and congenital syphilis increased in both priority (AAPC: 8.54%; p<0.001) and non-priority municipalities (AAPC: 2.61%; p = 0.005), as well as in the regions, except the Center-West. High growth trends in syphilis prevalence were found in all municipalities, as well as all five regions between 2007 and 2017, showing that the challenge to reduce or even eliminate syphilis in Brazil is still difficult.

Comparação das respostas fisiológicas do incremental shuttle walk test e do Glittre-ADL test: instrumentos complementares para avaliação da capacidade funcional

RESUMO O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar e comparar respostas metabólicas, cardiovasculares e ventilatórias do incremental shuttle walk test (ISWT) e do Glittre activities of daily living test (Glittre-ADL test). Trata-se de um estudo transversal, realizado com indivíduos saudáveis. A capacidade funcional (CF) foi avaliada pela distância percorrida e consumo de oxigênio pico (VO2pico) no ISWT e pelo tempo gasto e VO2 no Glittre-ADL test. Trinta indivíduos percorreram 656,67 (IC95%:608,8-704,5) metros no ISWT e executaram o Glittre-ADL test em 2,4 (IC95%:2,2-2,6) minutos. O VO2 pico do ISWT foi 27,8 (IC95%25,6-29,9) versus 22,2 (IC95%20,5-24,1)mL×kg−1×min−1 (p<0,001) no estado estável (EE) do Glittre-ADL test. As correlações entre distância percorrida no ISWT e o tempo gasto no Glittre-ADL test, o VO2pico do ISWT e o VO2 no EE do Glittre-ADL test e a FC no pico do ISWT e no EE do Glittre-ADL test foram de moderada a alta magnitude. O Glittre-ADL test apresenta menores respostas metabólicas, cardiovasculares e ventilatórias se comparado ao ISWT.

Trend of mortality from ischemic heart disease and influenza vaccination in older adults in São Paulo

Abstract The aim of the present study was to analyze the mortality trend due to ischemic heart disease (IHD) among older adults, identify changes in the trend and determine the correlation with influenza vaccine coverage (2000 to 2012) in the state of São Paulo between 1980 and 2012. An ecological time series study was conducted involving secondary data from Brazilian information systems. Linear and polynomial regression models as well as joinpoint regression were used to estimate the trends. Pearson’s correlation coefficient was used to evaluate the correlation between age-standardized mortality coefficients and vaccine coverage. A decreasing tendency in mortality due to IHD occurred in both sexes, higher mortality rates were found for males and greater reductions were found in the period after the vaccination campaigns. However, no statistically significant changes occurred in the year coinciding with or near the onset of the campaigns. In the overall sample, no evidence of a linear correlation was found between the mortality coefficients and vaccination coverage. Other factors directly associated with morbidity and mortality due to ischemic heart disease may have influenced the trend.

Qualidade dos sistemas de informações sobre nascidos vivos e sobre mortalidade no Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil, 2000 a 2014

Resumo O estudo avalia a qualidade do SIM e do SINASC nos aspectos cobertura, incompletitude e consistência, bem como a contribuição do “linkage” para a recuperação de dados. Foram analisados nascimentos e óbitos de menores de um ano ocorridos no Rio Grande do Sul entre 2000 e 2014. Os registros foram pareados por “linkage” determinístico através do número da DNV e, na ausência deste, por “linkage” probabilístico. A cobertura do SINASC aumentou 37%, passando de 72,2% em 2000 para 98,9%. O grau de incompletitude do SINASC foi excelente para todas as variáveis, exceto quantidade de filhos mortos e ocupação materna. No SIM, até 2003 a maioria das variáveis apresentou preenchimento ruim ou muito ruim. Apesar da melhoria, seis delas ainda possuíam preenchimento regular ou ruim em 2014. Após o “linkage”, a incompletitude reduziu-se para grande parte das variáveis. Houve alta variabilidade quanto à consistência: sexo apresentou percentual superior a 97% em todo período, enquanto para outras cinco variáveis essa fração segue inferior a 75% em 2014. Destaca-se a alta cobertura e a excelente incompletitude do SINASC. Persistem problemas relacionados à consistência de informações. Evidencia-se a relevância do “linkage” como método para recuperar informações.

[Mortality due to cerebrovascular disease among the elderly and vaccination against influenza: São Paulo State, Brazil, 1980-2012]

This study describes the trend of the coefficients of mortality due to cerebrovascular diseases (CbVD) among the elderly in São Paulo State, Brazil, from 1980 to 2012, before and after influenza vaccination campaigns, and identifies change points. It is an ecological, time-series study carried out with death data from the Health Ministry's Mortality Information System and population data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. We used linear, polynomial and joinpoint regression models in the data analysis. Between 1980 and 2012, there were 480,955 deaths due to CbVD. The mean mortality coefficients decreased for both sexes in all age groups we analyzed, with the greatest reduction in the older ages and male sex. We observed a significant reduction in the mortality trend in 1998 for male sex in the age group 60-69 years (annual percent change - APC = -3%, 95%CI: -4.3; -1.6) and for all elderly (APC = -3.8%, 95%CI: -4.4; -3.1). Considering the period as a whole, we did not observe change points for the age group 70-79 (average annual percent change - AAPC = -3.3%, 95%CI: -3.5; -3.1) and, for male sex, for the group ≥ 80 years (AAPC = -2.9%, 95%CI: -3.1; -2.6). For all elderly, the mean percentage reduction was of 3.1% per year (AAPC = -3.1%, 95%CI: -3.5; -2.7). Results show a reduction in the mortality due to CbVD in the period, with different percentage variations in coefficient reduction. The study's findings add information to the debate regarding possible effects of vaccination campaigns in reducing mortality due to CbVD among the elderly.

Tecobé in Marajó: trend of indicators for the monitoring of primary care before and during the More Physicians for Brazil Program

This study aimed to evaluate the performance of the Family Health Strategy after implementation of the More Physicians Program (MPBP) in the territory of Marajó-Pa-Brazil through an historical series of four primary care indicators during 2011-2015: population coverage, proportion of live births to mothers with/without prenatal consultations, hospitalization rates due to primary care sensitive condition (taxas de internações por condições sensíveis à atenção primária - ICSAP) and infant mortality rate. A trend of improvement was evident after implementation of the MPBP in 2013, achieving 42.8% of coverage in December 2015. In April 2014, all 16 municipalities had established teams with physicians. The proportion of live births to mothers with/without prenatal consultations showed increasing trends in most municipalities, increasing by 97% on average, predominantly with seven consultations or more and reducing the proportion of live births to mothers without prenatal visits. The infant mortality rate achieved a downward trend starting in 2014. The results indicate improvements in primary care based on the selected indicators, boosting the Family Health Strategy (FHS) in the studied region.

Fall-related admission and mortality in older adults in Brazil: trend analysis

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the trend of fall-related morbidity and mortality in older adults in Brazil from 1996 to 2012.

METHOD

This is an ecological study of fall-related admission and mortality rate trends in older adults by gender, Brazilian regions, and Brazilian state capitals using data from the Hospital Information System of the Unified Healthcare System (SIH-SUS) and from the National Mortality Information System (SIM). Trend analyses were based on polynomial regression models.

RESULTS

Mortality rates increased in all regions and state capitals, and admission trends varied in regions and state capitals. The admission rates in 1996 and 2012 were 2.58 and 41.37 per 10,000 older adults, respectively, and the mortality rates per 10,000 older adults increased from 1.25 in 1996 to 3.75 in 2012. Males mortality rates were higher during the entire period.

CONCLUSION

Fall-related mortality and admission rates increased in Brazil but varied by gender and state of residence. The results of this study do not only monitor the problem over time but may also help plan technological and human resources to prevent and control falls.

EVOLUTION OF MORTALITY FOR COLORECTAL CANCER IN BRAZIL AND REGIONS, BY SEX, 1996-2015

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer is among the three most frequent neoplasms in Brazil, being a public health problem. OBJECTIVE: To describe distribution pattern of colorectal cancer mortality in Brazil and regions, according to sex, between 1996 and 2015. METHODS: Values of standardized and stratified mortality rates by sex between 1996 and 2015 were used, through polynomial regression models and joinpoint analysis. RESULTS: It was observed that, for linear trends in mortality rates, for both sexes, there is a statistically significant trend increasing in both models, with rates and trends, and higher for men than for women, respectively, 7.3% per year (R2=0.95, P<0.001) and 6.5% per year (R2=0.87, P<0.001). It is observed a difference in magnitude and behavior of trend between the regions. CONCLUSION: It is understood that it is important to know the trend of rates in order to define priority populations for early interventions that increase survival and reduce mortality.

Hospitalization for primary care susceptible conditions, health spending and Family Health Strategy: an analysis of trends

The goal of this study was to analyze the trend over time of hospitalizations due to conditions susceptible to primary healthcare (HCSPC), and how it relates to healthcare spending and Family Health Strategy (FHS) coverage in the city of São Leopoldo, Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil, between 2003 and 2012. This is an ecological, time-trend study. We used secondary data available in the Unified Healthcare System Hospital Data System, the Primary Care Department and Public Health Budget Data System. The analysis compared HCSPC using three-year moving averages and Poisson regressions or negative binomials. We found no statistical significance in decreasing HCSPC indicators and primary care spending in the period analyzed. Healthcare spending, per-capita spending and FHS coverage increased significantly, but we found no correlation with HCSPC. The results show that, despite increases in the funds invested and population covered by FHS, they are still insufficient to deliver the level of care the population requires.

[Trends in hospitalization for primary care-sensitive conditions and associated factors in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil]

An ecological study was conducted to analyze trends in hospitalization for primary care-sensitive conditions linking the results to the investments in health and coverage of the Family Health Strategy in Porto Alegre, between 1998 and 2012. The causes of hospitalization for primary care-sensitive conditions were based on the national list provided by the Ministry of Health. The data were obtained from the Hospital Information System of the Unified Health System (SUS). Standardized rates were created and investments increased by 27%, though investments in primary care increased by 83%. The expansion of coverage by the Family Health Strategy was almost fourfold, though it remained below the recommended values. There was no change in the trend of hospitalization for primary care-sensitive conditions. The analysis did not make it possible to establish if patients who were hospitalized for primary care-sensitive conditions had access to the Family Health Strategy or not, suggesting the need to incorporate data of place of origin in the information system. Studies using the Hospital Information System contribute to its enhancement, fomenting the assessment, management and design of health policies.

Tendência de declínio da taxa de mortalidade por suicídio no Paraná, Brasil: contribuição para políticas públicas de saúde mental

RESUMO Objetivo Analisar a tendência da mortalidade por suicídio no Estado do Paraná, Brasil. Métodos Estudo ecológico, de séries temporais, com análise da tendência da mortalidade por suicídio no Estado do Paraná, Brasil, utilizando dados do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade de 1996 a 2012, por meio de regressão polinomial. Resultados Houve tendência decrescente de 0,16 ao ano na taxa de mortalidade por suicídio no Estado do Paraná e aumento da taxa de mortalidade apenas para a Regional de Saúde de Paranaguá (0,19 ao ano). Verificou-se que o sexo masculino apresentou maior taxa de mortalidade por suicídio, com queda significativa para os homens com idade de 65 anos ou mais. Conclusões A maioria das Regionais de Saúde do Estado do Paraná apresentou tendência decrescente nas taxas de mortalidade por suicídio. Contudo, houve variações da tendência entre as regiões, faixas etárias e sexo, com maior queda na taxa de mortalidade por suicídio no sexo masculino, com idade de 65 anos ou mais. A análise de tendência da mortalidade por suicídio reportou ser um importante instrumento para identificar as regiões no Paraná que necessitam de ações diretivas de promoção à saúde mental.

Internações por condições sensíveis à atenção primária em Novo Hamburgo, Rio Grande do Sul

Objetivos: O presente estudo teve por objetivo analisar a tendência das internações por condições sensíveis à atenção primária (ICSAP) em Novo Hamburgo, comparando-a com o restante do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, e relacionando-a com os investimentos financeiros em saúde e a cobertura da Estratégia Saúde da Família (ESF) no município, no período de 1998 a 2012. Métodos: Foi realizado um estudo ecológico. Os dados foram coletados do Sistema de Internações Hospitalares do SUS. As causas de ICSAP foram baseadas na lista do Ministério da Saúde. A tendência das ICSAP em Novo Hamburgo e no restante do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul foram analisadas por meio dos seus coeficientes padronizados, pelas médias móveis a cada três anos e pela Regressão Binomial Negativa. Foi realizada análise de correlação entre as variáveis de interesse. Resultados: Apesar do aumento de 329,26% nos investimentos financeiros e da expansão da cobertura por ESF no período, atingindo 20,20% da população, não houve diminuição nas tendências dos coeficientes de ICSAP em Novo Hamburgo. No restante do Rio Grande do Sul houve redução nas ICSAP, contudo, os coeficientes foram maiores do que em Novo Hamburgo no período estudado. Conclusões: Embora no presente estudo não tenha sido encontrada associação entre a diminuição nos coeficientes de ICSAP com o aumento da cobertura pela ESF, incremento do investimento financeiro em saúde, investimento financeiro em APS e o gasto per capita em saúde, há evidências que estes estejam correlacionados. Provavelmente, a cobertura de ESF não foi suficiente para impactar as ICSAP.

DECLINE IN HOSPITALIZATION TREND FOR CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES SENSITIVE TO PRIMARY HEALTHCARE

ABSTRACT Objective: was to analyze the trend of hospitalizations for cardiovascular conditions sensitive to primary healthcare from 2000 to 2011. Method: an ecological study of the tendency of hospitalization rates for cardiovascular diseases by residence, aged between 35 and 74 years, according to the main diagnoses of hospitalization, gender and age, with data from the Hospital Information System of the Brazilian National Unified Health System (Sistema de Informações Hospitalares do Sistema Único de Saúde) and using polynomial regression models. Results: an average annual decline of 5.6 per 10,000 inhabitants ( r2 =0.9; p<0.001) of hospitalization rates by cardiovascular diseases was observed. Decreasing trends for hypertension, heart failure and cerebrovascular diseases were also identified, while hospitalization rates by angina remained stable. The decrease in admission rates due to cardiovascular conditions was similar between both genders, although these rates were higher for men aged 55 to 74 years. Conclusion: the decline in hospitalization rates for primary care-sensitive cardiovascular diseases indicates, in addition to other factors, improved access and quality of primary healthcare actions, especially for residents aged 55-74 years, and also for women whose decline was more pronounced. The health team should implement actions to prevent chronic disease complications, and consequently hospitalizations for men and for angina, in order to eliminate health disparities.

Trends in hospitalization due to cardiovascular conditions sensitive to primary health care

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the trend in hospitalizations for primary care-sensitive cardiovascular conditions for residents of the state of Paraná, Brazil, from 2000 to 2011.

METHODS

Ecological, time series study of the rates of hospitalization for cardiovascular diseases in residents aged 35-74 years old by sex, age and main diagnosis for hospitalization. Data from the Hospital Information System of the Unified Health System (SIH-SUS) and polynomial regression models for trend analyses were used.

RESULTS

Hospitalization rates for cardiovascular conditions decreased during the period (r2 = 0.96; p < 0.001), with similar decreasing patterns for males and females, in all age ranges, although always higher for males. Although hospitalization trends for hypertension, heart failure and cerebrovascular disease decreased, angina remained stable for males and females.

CONCLUSION

A downward trend in hospital admissions due to primary care-sensitive cardiovascular conditions in the state of Paraná between 2000 and 2011 may have resulted from the expansion of the health network of and the access to primary health attention, as well as other factors that influence this set of diseases, such as improved socioeconomic conditions of the population, organization of primary care services for higher age ranges and women and decrease in risk factors.

[Clinical and epidemiological profile of patients with leprosy-related reactions]

OBJECTIVE

To identify the clinical and epidemiological profile of patients under treatment for leprosy-related reactions.

METHOD

This is a descriptive, cross-sectional and quantitative study, conducted from October 2013 to April 2014 with 61 individuals in a reference center in the Brazilian northeast region. The statistical test used considered a significance level of 0,05.

RESULTS

Most individuals were males (57.38%), with low family income (50.82%) and incomplete elementary education (75.41%). In the moment of leprosy diagnosis, 52.45% of patients presented some degree of physical disability established. There was significant association between the observed clinic form and the moment of manifestation of leprosy reactions (p= 0.034). The residual analysis indicated that pure neural leprosy is associated to a manifestation of reactions before treatment and dimorphous leprosy was associated to manifestations during treatment.

CONCLUSION

The disclosure of the clinical picture of pure neural leprosy and early detection of cases strongly contribute to the promotion of population health enabling the fulfillment of the goal of eradicating leprosy.

Secular trends in infant mortality by age-group and avoidable components in the State of São Paulo, 1996–2012

Objective:

To describe trends and composition of infant mortality rate in the State of São Paulo, from 1996 to 2012.

Methods:

An ecological study was conducted, based on official secondary data of births and infant deaths of residents in São Paulo, from 1996 to 2012. The infant mortality rate was calculated by the direct method and was analyzed by graphs and polynomial regression models for age groups (early neonatal, late neonatal and post-neonatal) and for groups of avoidable causes of death.

Results:

The mortality rate in the State of São Paulo tended to fall, ranging from 22.5 to 11.5 per thousand live births. Half of the infant deaths occurred in the early neonatal group. The proportion of avoidable infant deaths varied from 76.0 to 68.7%. The deaths which were avoidable by adequate attention to women during pregnancy and childbirth and newborn care accounted for 54% of infant deaths throughout the period.

Conclusions:

The mortality rate levels are still far from those in developed countries, which highlight the need to prioritize access and quality of healthcare services during pregnancy, childbirth and newborn care, especially in the first week of life, aiming at achieving standards of infant mortality similar to those of developed societies.

Evolution of hospital spending with drug-related psychiatric hospital admissions

OBJECTIVE

To analyse the trend of expenditure on drug-related psychiatric hospital admissions in Maringá, Paraná, Brazil, from 1999 to 2012.

METHOD

Ecological time series research with secondary data from the hospital information system of the unified health system ("SIH-SUS"). The records of admissions with a main diagnosis of drug abuse were used to calculate average expenditure. Chapter V of the ICD-10 was used to classify the most frequent diagnoses, namely abuse of alcohol, cannabis, cocaine, and psychoactive substances. The trend was expressed using a polynomial regression model.

RESULTS

Average expenditure showed an increasing trend for cocaine and other psychoactive substances, and a decreasing trend for cannabis. Average expenditure for illicit drugs increased significantly.

CONCLUSION

The scarcity of economic studies on this subject calls for national studies that address expenditure with drug-related hospital admission to promote the implementation of a psychosocial, outpatient and hospital care network in accord with public healthcare expenditure.

Trends in prevalence of overweight and obesity in adults in 26 Brazilian state capitals and the Federal District from 2006 to 2012

OBJECTIVE

To describe the annual evolution of the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the adult population of the 26 Brazilian state capitals and the Federal District from 2006 to 2012.

METHODS

Annual interviews (around 54,000 per year) from VIGITEL (Surveillance System of Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Non-Communicable Diseases through Telephone Interviews) were used. Self-reported weight and height were used to estimate body mass index and nutritional status. Prevalence estimates of overweight and obesity are presented according to gender, age and schooling and to each city. Linear regression model was used to evaluate the time trend of prevalence.

RESULTS

Prevalence of overweight in adults in the 27 cities monitored by VIGITEL increased from 43.2% (2006) to 51.0% (2012), with an annual increase rate of 1.37%. Prevalence of obesity increased from 11.6% to 17.4%, with an annual increase rate of 0.89%. The study showed a statistically significant increase in the prevalence of overweight in all cities, and for both genders, all age groups and all levels of schooling. Similar trends were also verified for obesity.

CONCLUSIONS

If the trends verified from 2006 to 2012 are maintained, in ten years, around two-thirds of the adults in Brazilian state capitals will be overweight, and a quarter will be obese. This perspective requests urgent response from government and intersectoral actions to combat the obesogenic environment.

Secular trends in infant mortality by age-group and avoidable components in the State of São Paulo, 1996-2012

OBJECTIVE

To describe trends and composition of infant mortality rate in the State of São Paulo, from 1996 to 2012.

METHODS

An ecological study was conducted, based on official secondary data of births and infant deaths of residents in São Paulo, from 1996 to 2012. The infant mortality rate was calculated by the direct method and was analyzed by graphs and polynomial regression models for age groups (early neonatal, late neonatal and post-neonatal) and for groups of avoidable causes of death.

RESULTS

The mortality rate in the State of São Paulo tended to fall, ranging from 22.5 to 11.5 per thousand live births. Half of the infant deaths occurred in the early neonatal group. The proportion of avoidable infant deaths varied from 76.0 to 68.7%. The deaths which were avoidable by adequate attention to women during pregnancy and childbirth and newborn care accounted for 54% of infant deaths throughout the period.

CONCLUSIONS

The mortality rate levels are still far from those in developed countries, which highlight the need to prioritize access and quality of healthcare services during pregnancy, childbirth and newborn care, especially in the first week of life, aiming at achieving standards of infant mortality similar to those of developed societies.

Hospitalização por acidente vascular encefálico isquêmico no Brasil: estudo ecológico sobre possível impacto do Hiperdia

RESUMO: Objetivo: O estudo avaliou a tendência de hospitalização por acidente vascular encefálico isquêmico (HAVEI) e a sua mortalidade hospitalar no Brasil nos últimos 15 anos, assim como o impacto do programa Hiperdia nesse cenário. Métodos: Delineou-se um estudo ecológico com abordagem analítica e dados coletados no Sistema de Internação Hospitalar sobre episódios de AVEI, referentes aos anos de 1998 a 2012. Todos os dados foram estratificados por sexo e faixa etária, criando-se um indicador para HAVEI e proporção de mortalidade hospitalar. A fim de estimar a tendência dos dados criou-se uma curva polinomial de melhor aderência e para a averiguar o impacto do Hiperdia aplicou-se o Modelo Linear Generalizado tomados como desfecho a HAVEI e a mortalidade hospitalar. Adotou-se um nível de significância de 5% para minimizar um erro tipo I. Resultados: Foi evidenciada redução das HAVEI de 37,57/105 habitantes em 1998 a 2001 para 10,33/105 habitantes em 2002 a 2005, declinando 73,64%. A redução aconteceu em ambos os sexos, assim como para todas as faixas etárias. A mortalidade hospitalar por AVEI também declinou no Brasil a partir de 2002, tanto em homens como em mulheres, porém em menos de 3% e apenas nas faixas entre 0 e 14 anos e acima de 80 anos não detectamos tendência. Conclusão: Portanto, o declínio das HAVEI coincidiu temporalmente com a implementação do Hiperdia no ano de 2002 e essa tendência se mantém até hoje.

Tendências da hanseníase no Tocantins, um estado hiperendêmico do Norte do Brasil, 2001-2012

A hanseníase é hiperendêmica no Estado do Tocantins, Brasil. O objetivo do estudo foi analisar as tendências dos indicadores da hanseníase no Tocantins em 2001-2012. Análise de dados advindos do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN). Incluíram-se casos novos de residentes no Tocantins. Calcularam-se os indicadores da hanseníase e analisaram-se as tendências temporais por meio de regressão polinomial. Houve tendência significativa e decrescente para a detecção geral (R2 = 0,40; p < 0,05) e proporção de casos paucibacilares (R2 = 0,81). Foi estável a detecção em < 15 anos (R2 = 0,48; p > 0,05), detecção de casos com grau 2 de incapacidade física (R2 = 0,37; p > 0,05) e proporção de casos com grau 2 (R2 = 0,49; p > 0,05). Houve aumento significativo para a proporção de casos com grau 1 de incapacidade (R2 = 0,82; p < 0,05) e proporção de casos multibacilares (R2 = 0,81; p < 0,05). O Tocantins apresenta regiões com alta transmissão e diagnóstico tardio da hanseníase, apontando a expansão da doença de forma heterogênea na análise temporal.

Trends in mortality due to breast cancer among women in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 1996-2011

A descriptive time series study was conducted in order to analyze the mortality rates for breast cancer in two age brackets (< 60 years and ≥ 60 years), in areas of the state of Rio de Janeiro (inland, metropolitan area, capital and state). The data source was the Mortality Information System. Mortality rates were analyzed for four-year periods, between 1996 and 2011, and the ratios between the incidences for the two age brackets in each area. The trend in annual mortality rates was analyzed with the Joinpoint program and polynomial regression models. The ratios between the incidences observed were 7-8 times higher in women aged 60 years or older. Joinpoint analyses indicated a linear decline in mortality rates in the state and the capital for the whole population and for women aged 60 and over in the same areas. The polynomial regression models allowed the observation of periods of increasing and decreasing rates and a tendency to stabilization at the end of the period. Despite the declining trend, the magnitude of mortality from breast cancer is still high among women aged 60 and older, and it is important to investigate associated factors in this population group.

Temporal evolution and spatial distribution of maternal death

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the temporal evolution of maternal mortality and its spatial distribution.

METHODS

Ecological study with a sample made up of 845 maternal deaths in women between 10 and 49 years, registered from 1999 to 2008 in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Southern Brazil. Data were obtained from Information System on Mortality of Ministry of Health. The maternal mortality ratio and the specific maternal mortality ratio were calculated from records, and analyzed by the Poisson regression model. In the spatial distribution, three maps of the state were built with the rates in the geographical macro-regions, in 1999, 2003, and 2008.

RESULTS

There was an increase of 2.0% in the period of ten years (95%CI 1.00;1.04; p = 0.01), with no significant change in the magnitude of the maternal mortality ratio. The Serra macro-region presented the highest maternal mortality ratio (1.15, 95%CI 1.08;1.21; p < 0.001). Most deaths in Rio Grande do Sul were of white women over 40 years, with a lower level of education. The time of delivery/abortion and postpartum are times of increased maternal risk, with a greater negative impact of direct causes such as hypertension and bleeding.

CONCLUSIONS

The lack of improvement in maternal mortality ratio indicates that public policies had no impact on women's reproductive and maternal health. It is needed to qualify the attention to women's health, especially in the prenatal period, seeking to identify and prevent risk factors, as a strategy of reducing maternal death.

Evolution of thyroid cancer mortality in adults in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To assess the trend of thyroid cancer mortality in Brazil between 1980 and 2010. MATERIALS AND METHODS: An ecological study of time series. Mortality rates for thyroid cancer adjusted by age according to gender were calculated between 1980 and 2010. Data were analyzed by three distinct strategies: polynomial regression, joinpoint analysis, and moving averages. RESULTS: Over 70% of deaths occur in the elderly, regardless of sex. Among young adults, the mortality rate is low, with no difference between men and women. Among mature adults and elderly, mortality is increasing, and significantly, for women. There is a trend of decreasing mortality in all female adults and overall population, and in males and 40-59 years and overall population, both excluding the elderly, with statistical significance. CONCLUSION: Knowledge about trends allows setting priorities and allocating resources toward positive changes in this scenario in the Brazilian population.

[Mortality due to malignant neoplasms of the liver and intrahepatic bile ducts in Brazil, 1980-2010]

This study aimed to analyze trends in mortality due to malignant neoplasms of the liver and intrahepatic bile ducts in Brazil from 1980 to 2010. This was a time series study using data provided by the Mortality Information System. Crude and standardized mortality rates were calculated according to age, area of residence, and gender. Trends were analyzed using polynomial regression models. An increasing trend in mortality was observed for both males and females in Brazil. Mean overall mortality was 3.59, with a linear increase of 0.020 (R² = 0.588; p < 0.001). The rate for males was 4.20 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants with a linear annual increase of 0.044 (R² = 0.81; p < 0,001), and for females, 2.98 per 100,000 inhabitants with a linear annual increase of 0.0194 (R² = 0.35; p = 0.008). The article discusses possible explanations for this increase, as well as potential information bias.

Mortalidade por doenças circulatórias e evolução da saúde da família no Brasil: um estudo ecológico

O objetivo deste estudo foi analisar a mortalidade por doenças circulatórias paralelamente à evolução da Estratégia Saúde da Família no Brasil. Estudo ecológico, retrospectivo, baseado na evolução temporal da ESF e nas taxas de mortalidade por doenças circulatórias no Brasil. Foi realizada uma descrição da razão de cobertura habitante x ESF e dos indicadores de saúde relacionados à mortalidade por doenças circulatórias. Para a associação estatística utilizou-se o teste de Correlação de Spearman. Houve aumento populacional no Brasil em 15%, evolução de 761% no número de ESF e 5% de aumento na mortalidade por doenças circulatórias. A razão população x ESF passou de 52.838 (1998) para 7.084 (2006) pessoas assistidas por ESF. As regiões norte e nordeste apresentaram crescimento nas taxas de mortalidade por doenças circulatórias e em 21 (81%) estados houve correlação positiva entre mortalidade por doenças circulatórias e ESF (r: > 0,7; p < 0,01). Por fim, considera-se a ESF uma importante política pública de saúde, tendo obtido resultados exitosos no Brasil desde a sua implementação. Entretanto, em um contexto geral, sua expansão não influenciou a redução da mortalidade por doenças circulatórias, tendo apresentado aumento deste indicador no país.

INCREASE INCOME AND MORTALITY OF COLORRECTAL CANCER IN BRAZIL, 2001-2009

ContextSeveral international studies have observed a correlation between the improvement of socio-demographic indicators and rates of incidence and mortality from cancer of the colon and rectum.ObjectiveThe objective of this study is to estimate the correlation between average per capita income and the rate of colorectal cancer mortality in Brazil between 2001 and 2009.MethodsWe obtained data on income inequality (Gini index), population with low incomes (½ infer the minimum wage/month), average family income, per capita ICP and mortality from colon cancer and straight between 2001-2009 by DATASUS. A trend analysis was performed using linear regression, and correlation between variables by Pearson's correlation coefficient.ResultsThere was a declining trend in poverty and income inequality, and growth in ICP per capita and median family income and standardized mortality rate for colorectal cancer in Brazil. There was also strong positive correlation between mortality from this site of cancer and inequality (men r = -0.30, P = 0.06, women r = -0.33, P = 0.05) income low income (men r = -0.80, P<0.001, women r = -0.76, P<0.001), median family income (men r = 0.79, P = 0.06, women r = 0.76, P<0.001) and ICP per capita (men r = 0.73, P<0.001, women r = 0.68, P<0.001) throughout the study period.ConclusionThe increase of income and reducing inequality may partially explain the increased occurrence of colorectal cancer and this is possibly due to differential access to food recognized as a risk factor, such as red meat and high in fat. It is important therefore to assess the priority of public health programs addressing nutrition in countries of intermediate economy, as is the case of Brazil.

Trend of mortality rates for gastric cancer in Brazil and regions in the period of 30 years (1980-2009)

CONTEXT

The most recent global estimate revealed the presence of about one million new cases of stomach cancer for the year 2008, setting itself as the fourth most common cause of cancer.

OBJECTIVE

The present study aims to assess the trend of mortality from stomach cancer in Brazil according to regions between 1980 and 2009.

METHODS

Data on deaths from stomach cancer were obtained from the Mortality Information System, and the demographic data, from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. The rates of mortality were standardized by age according to world population. The trend curves were calculated for Brazilian regions by sex. The technique used was polynomial regression and joinpoint.

RESULTS

The tendency for males and females is similar in all regions, although the magnitude is higher among men in all places. Regions Midwest, South, Southeast tended to decline, while the Northern region showed no significant trend, and the Northeast tended to increase.

CONCLUSION

It is therefore a need to evaluate public health policies for gastric cancer aimed at the demographic transition (change of urbanization and lifestyle) that is occurring throughout the country.

Avaliação do programa de tuberculose em Sapucaia do Sul (RS): indicadores, 2000-2008

OBJETIVO:descrever a tendência dos indicadores da tuberculose em relação à sua prevalência e incidência e os percentuais dos desfechos dos casos no encerramento (cura, abandono ao tratamento ou óbito) dos pacientes que ingressaram no Programa em Sapucaia do Sul, RS, entre 2000 e 2008. MÉTODOS: Foi realizada uma análise ecológica das taxas. Foram apresentadas as taxas brutas de frequência e os respectivos intervalos de confiança a 95%. Verificaram-se as estimativas das taxas através das variações percentuais médias anuais. Foram realizadas médias móveis a cada três anos. RESULTADOS: As taxas médias de prevalência e incidência foram de 64,3 e 58,0 por 100.000 habitantes respectivamente. As análises dos indicadores não apresentaram diferenças estatisticamente significativas entre as taxas anuais ou nas médias móveis durante o período. DISCUSSÃO: Os desfechos estavam abaixo das metas propostas pela Organização Mundial de Saúde o que compromete o controle da doença, já que não se consegue interromper a cadeia de transmissão.

Mortalidade por câncer de mama e câncer de colo do útero em município de porte médio da Região Sudeste do Brasil, 1980-2006

Analisar a tendência da mortalidade por câncer de mama e câncer de colo do útero em mulheres residentes no Município de Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais, Brasil, no período de 1980 a 2006. Os dados sobre os óbitos foram obtidos do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade; as taxas de mortalidade específicas foram calculadas por idade e padronizadas pela população mundial. Para análise de tendência, foram aplicados modelos de regressão polinomial. O câncer de mama foi a principal causa de óbito entre as neoplasias na população de mulheres residentes no município, enquanto o câncer de colo do útero oscilou entre a segunda e a quarta causa no período do estudo. A análise de tendência mostrou queda da mortalidade por câncer de colo do útero (p = 0,001) e tendência de crescimento na mortalidade por câncer de mama (p = 0,035) ao longo dos anos da série. A mortalidade por câncer de mama e colo do útero no Município de Juiz de Fora sugere um processo de transição epidemiológica em andamento, com tendência crescente na mortalidade por câncer de mama e persistência de taxas elevadas por câncer de colo do útero.

ANÁLISE DE SÉRIE TEMPORAL PARA AVALIAÇÃO DO PERFIL SOROLÓGICO DA LEPTOSPIROSE BOVINA NO ESTADO DO RIO GRANDE DO SUL DE 1996 A 2006

RESUMO A leptospirose é uma das principais enfermidades responsáveis pela baixa produtividade nos sistemas pecuários bovinos, sendo associada à redução na produção de leite, infertilidade, aborto, natimortalidade, além de aumento nos custos com despesas de assistência veterinária, vacinas e testes laboratoriais. Este estudo teve como objetivo analisar dados laboratoriais de sorologia para leptospirose bovina no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, durante um período de 1996 a 2006, visando detectar tendências na frequência de reagentes e gerar hipóteses sobre a variação da frequência de soropositivos ao longo deste período. Análises de regressão linear e modelo linear generalizado foram realizadas para detectar tendências e verificar fatores que influenciam na frequência de soropositivos, respectivamente. Durante o período de 11 anos, foram analisadas 18.806 amostras de soro, sendo que 9.385 resultaram positivas (49,9%). A análise da série temporal por sorovar revelou uma tendência linear crescente estatisticamente significativa na frequência dos seguintes sorovares: Australis, Autumnalis, Bratislava, Copenhageni, Grippotyphosa, Pyrogenes e Tarassovi (p < 0,01). Por outro lado, foi observada uma tendência decrescente estatisticamente significativa na frequência dos sorovares Hardjo e Wolffi (p < 0,01) ao longo do período avaliado. Houve uma associação estatisticamente significativa entre índices pluviométricos (mm) e o número de soropositivos para Leptospira spp. (p = 0,01, OR = 1,003).

Tendências da internação e da mortalidade infantil por diarréia: Brasil, 1995 a 2005

OBJETIVO: Analisar a tendência das internações e da mortalidade por diarréia em crianças menores de um ano. MÉTODOS: Foi realizado um estudo ecológico de séries temporais entre 1995 e 2005, para o Brasil e para as capitais dos estados. Foram utilizados dados secundários do Ministério da Saúde, obtidos do Sistema de Informação Hospitalar e do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade. Durante o período de estudo foram registradas 1.505.800 internações e 39.421 mortes por diarréia de crianças menores de um ano de idade. Para as análises das tendências da taxa de internação e de mortalidade foram utilizados modelos de regressão polinomial. RESULTADOS: Houve redução tanto nas internações por diarréia quanto na mortalidade infantil por diarréia no País e em 13 capitais. Oito capitais tiveram queda somente na mortalidade por diarréia, enquanto três apresentaram decréscimo somente nas taxas de internação por diarréia. Na análise conjunta dos indicadores de diarréia e dos indicadores gerais, observou-se que houve decréscimo em todas as séries históricas somente no Brasil e em quatro capitais. CONCLUSÕES: A redução nas taxas de internações e mortalidade por diarréia observada pelas séries temporais podem ser resultado das medidas de prevenção e controle empregadas.

Fatores relacionados à ocorrência de leishmaniose tegumentar no Vale do Ribeira

INTRODUÇÃO: este estudo teve como objetivo identificar fatores ambientais e sociais determinantes na incidência da leishmaniose tegumentar americana no Vale do Ribeira no período de 1998 a 2006. MÉTODOS: foram utilizados dados secundários de domínio público dos 23 municípios que integram a região. O intervalo de tempo foi dividido em três períodos, pelas características gráficas dos coeficientes de incidência, os quais foram submetidos à análise por regressão linear múltipla. RESULTADOS: para o período de 1998 a 2000, as variáveis correlacionadas com a LTA foram índice de desenvolvimento humano médio (p = 0,007), renda per capita (p =0,390) e grau de urbanização (p = 0,079). No período de 2001 a 2003 e 2004 a 2006 as variáveis correlacionadas com LTA foram: a existência de flebotomíneos (p = 0,000 e p = 0,001) e a população urbana média (p = 0,007 e p = 0,001). CONCLUSÕES: esses dados demonstram a tendência de pauperização e urbanização da doença.

Tendência da mortalidade por doenças respiratórias em idosos e as queimadas no Estado de Rondônia/Brasil: período entre 1998 e 2005

As queimadas na região amazônica têm sido um problema ambiental grave. Poucos estudos relacionam os efeitos das queimadas sobre a saúde das populações expostas. Este artigo tem por objetivo estudar a tendência da mortalidade por doenças respiratórias em idosos, selecionadas no período de 1998 a 2005, no Estado de Rondônia, e correlacionar com o número de focos de queimadas. Trata-se de um estudo descritivo do tipo ecológico. Os registros de óbitos foram obtidos do Sistema de Informações de Mortalidade do SUS (SIM/SUS) e os registros de dados sobre os focos de queimadas foram obtidos através de banco de dados online disponível publicamente no Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais. Os resultados mostraram uma tendência de crescimento nas taxas de mortalidade por doenças do aparelho respiratório (DAR) e doença pulmonar obstrutiva crônica (DPOC), entre os idosos acima de 65 anos, e também uma tendência de crescimento do número de focos de calor. Houve uma correlação positiva e significante entre número de focos de queimadas e as taxas de mortalidade por DAR e DPOC, o que explica entre 50% e 80% da mortalidade pelas doenças estudadas em idosos na região. Estes resultados demonstram a gravidade do problema das queimadas e o impacto sobre a saúde respiratória da população, principalmente sobre a mortalidade em idosos.

Câncer em mulheres idosas das regiões Sul e Sudeste do Brasil: Evolução da mortalidade no período 1980 - 2005

INTRODUÇÃO: Com o envelhecimento progressivo da população, as neoplasias se constituíram em importante causa de morbimortalidade no Brasil. As regiões Sul e Sudeste apresentam as maiores taxas de mortalidade por câncer e abrigam os maiores contingentes de população idosa. OBJETIVO: Analisar a tendência da mortalidade por localizações selecionadas de câncer na população feminina de 60 anos ou mais das regiões Sul e Sudeste do Brasil, no período 1980-2005. METODOLOGIA: Os dados anuais da população residente e de mortalidade por câncer em geral e por câncer de esôfago, estômago, cólon/reto, pâncreas, pulmão, mama e colo de útero foram obtidos no DATASUS. A análise da tendência das taxas de mortalidade foi efetuada para três faixas etárias, a partir de 60 anos, através de modelos de regressão. RESULTADOS: Verificou-se tendência significativa de crescimento da mortalidade por câncer de cólon/reto, pâncreas, pulmão e mama nas três faixas etárias nas duas regiões. O câncer de estômago apresentou tendência significativa de decréscimo em todas as faixas etárias nas regiões Sul e Sudeste, enquanto para câncer de esôfago observou-se tendência significativa de declínio somente no Sudeste. CONCLUSÕES: Os padrões de mortalidade por câncer de mulheres idosas do Sul e Sudeste do Brasil acompanham tendências mundiais, tendo ocorrido importantes variações no período de estudo. Mecanismos envolvidos no comportamento da mortalidade em idosos, em grande parte ainda desconhecidos, assim como diferenças regionais e entre as gerações na prevalência de fatores de risco e proteção para câncer, poderiam explicar parcialmente os padrões observados. São necessários estudos que aprofundem a análise da mortalidade por câncer nesse grupo populacional.

Infant mortality in the Federal District, Brazil: time trend and socioeconomic inequalities

This study examined the trend in the infant mortality rate in the Federal District of Brazil (or Greater Metropolitan Brasilia, the national capital) from 1990 to 2000, analyzing the rate according to 5 administrative areas stratified by mean family income, from 1996 to 2000. An ecological time-series study was conducted using the Information Systems on Live Births and Mortality, produced by the Brazilian Ministry of Health. The infant mortality rate (IMR) decreased by 45.2% from 1990 to 2000, from 26.3 per 1000 live births to 14.4, or a mean annual reduction of 5.34% (R(2) = 0.9397; p < 0.0001). During this period there was a higher proportion of neonatal deaths. However, a higher percentage change occurred in the post-neonatal period (-59.0%, R(2) = 0.8452, p < 0.0001). Investigation of the IMR in the various areas of the Federal District showed a reduction in differences among the regions with respect to the component rates; however, substantial disparities persisted in relation to the income variable. The results suggest the need for effective interventions in the determinants of neonatal and post-neonatal mortality in order to improve maternal and infant health in all socioeconomic groups in the Federal District.

Tendência da mortalidade por doenças respiratórias em idosos antes e depois das campanhas de vacinação contra influenza no Estado de São Paulo - 1980 a 2004

Trata-se de estudo ecológico de série temporal onde foi analisada a tendência das taxas de mortalidade por doença respiratória padronizadas de 1980 a 2004, examinando-se o período antes e depois das campanhas de vacinação do idoso contra influenza. As taxas de mortalidade mostram queda nos dois anos posteriores às campanhas vacinais, 2000 e 2001, seguida de recuperação a níveis similares aos anteriores a 1999. Observou-se tendência de aumento após 2002 para ambos os sexos, embora a magnitude das taxas médias de mortalidade entre homens seja maior que nas mulheres. Esse aumento é mais evidente entre os maiores de 75 anos. As coberturas vacinais foram crescentes no período, porém não se disponha de dados sobre homogeneidade e coberturas específicas por faixa etária. Foram aventadas hipóteses para explicar a inversão da tendência, entre elas a circulação de outros vírus de tropismo respiratório (sincicial respiratório, parainfluenza, adenovírus) após 2002, a precocidade da circulação do vírus influenza A em 2004 (semana 17), a influência de fatores ambientais (poluição e baixas temperaturas), não analisados neste trabalho. Reforça-se a vigilância etiológica das síndromes gripais na comunidade, além da incorporação sistemática pela vigilância epidemiológica de indicadores ambientais e de cobertura vacinal mais detalhados.

Impacto da vacinação contra influenza na mortalidade por doenças respiratórias em idosos

OBJETIVO: As doenças respiratórias, particularmente as infecciosas, vêm se tornando cada vez mais representativas na morbi-mortalidade da população idosa. O objetivo do estudo foi analisar a tendência de mortalidade por doenças respiratórias e observar o impacto da vacinação contra influenza nos coeficientes de mortalidade. MÉTODOS: O estudo foi realizado no período de 1980 a 2000 em idosos residentes no Estado de São Paulo, utilizando-se dados de mortalidade do Sistema de Informações de Mortalidade do Ministério da Saúde. Trata-se de estudo ecológico de séries temporais. Foram analisadas as tendências das taxas padronizadas de mortalidade por doenças respiratórias infecciosas, segundo faixas etárias (60 a 64, 65 a 69, 70 a 74, 75 a 79 e 80 ou mais anos) e sexo, por meio de modelos de regressão polinomial. Foram calculados intervalos de confiança para a resposta média esperada nos anos subseqüentes à intervenção. RESULTADOS: Os coeficientes aumentaram para ambos os sexos na população idosa. Após a intervenção nota-se tendência ao declínio dos indicadores de mortalidade. Para a população idosa masculina, o coeficiente médio no período de 1980 a 1998 foi de 5,08 óbitos por mil homens com aumento linear não constante de 0,13 ao ano; em 2000, o coeficiente observado foi de 4,72 óbitos por mil homens. Já para as mulheres de 60 anos e mais, o coeficiente anual médio foi de 3,18 óbitos por mil mulheres com incremento não constante de 0,08 ao ano; no ano de 2000 o coeficiente observado foi 2,99 óbitos por mil mulheres, além da redução significativa dos mesmos em todas as faixas etárias. CONCLUSÕES: Os dados indicam a importância das doenças respiratórias entre os idosos e sugerem que a proteção específica contra influenza tem se refletido positivamente na prevenção da mortalidade por essas doenças.

Principais causas básicas da mortalidade infantil no Distrito Federal, Brasil: 1990 a 2000

OBJETIVOS: caracterizar a tendência da mortalidade infantil no Distrito Federal por causa básica de morte e segundo causas evitáveis entre 1990 e 2000. MÉTODOS: estudo ecológico a partir do total de óbitos infantis e nascimentos ocorridos, utilizando-se os sistemas de informação produzidos pelo Ministério da Saúde. Para avaliação, segundo causa básica de morte, usou-se a Classificação Internacional de Doenças. Para a análise, segundo causas evitáveis, foi utilizado o critério estabelecido pela Fundação SEADE. RESULTADOS: predominaram os óbitos devido a afecções perinatais, seguidos das mortes em decorrência de anomalias congênitas, porém a maior redução ocorreu no coeficiente de mortalidade por doenças infecciosas e parasitárias. Quando se avalia cada coeficiente em separado, destacam-se, nos óbitos neonatais, aqueles redutíveis por meio de ações de diagnóstico e tratamento precoces e os não evitáveis. Entre as mortes pós-neonatais, destacam-se aquelas também redutíveis por ações precoces de diagnóstico e tratamento e por meio de parcerias com outros setores, como aqueles óbitos por diarréia e infecções respiratórias agudas. CONCLUSÕES: verifica-se a necessidade de intervenção efetiva nas causas de morte e componentes da mortalidade infantil, principalmente naquelas relacionadas ao cuidado durante a gravidez, parto e puerpério, além daquelas que implicam na ação conjunta de vários setores.