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Waddell CJ, Saldana CS, Schoonveld MM, Meehan AA, Lin CK, Butler JC, Mosites E. Infectious Diseases Among People Experiencing Homelessness: A Systematic Review of the Literature in the United States and Canada, 2003-2022. Public Health Rep 2024; 139:532-548. [PMID: 38379269 PMCID: PMC11344984 DOI: 10.1177/00333549241228525] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/22/2024] Open
Abstract
Homelessness increases the risk of acquiring an infectious disease. We conducted a systematic review of the literature to identify quantitative data related to infectious diseases and homelessness. We searched Google Scholar, PubMed, and SCOPUS for quantitative literature published from January 2003 through December 2022 in English from the United States and Canada. We excluded literature on vaccine-preventable diseases and HIV because these diseases were recently reviewed. Of the 250 articles that met inclusion criteria, more than half were on hepatitis C virus or Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Other articles were on COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus, Staphylococcus aureus, group A Streptococcus, mpox (formerly monkeypox), 5 sexually transmitted infections, and gastrointestinal or vectorborne pathogens. Most studies showed higher prevalence, incidence, or measures of risk for infectious diseases among people experiencing homelessness as compared with people who are housed or the general population. Although having increased published data that quantify the infectious disease risks of homelessness is encouraging, many pathogens that are known to affect people globally who are not housed have not been evaluated in the United States or Canada. Future studies should focus on additional pathogens and factors leading to a disproportionately high incidence and prevalence of infectious diseases among people experiencing homelessness.
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Affiliation(s)
- Caroline J. Waddell
- Office of Readiness and Response, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
- Epidemic Intelligence Service, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Carlos S. Saldana
- Division of Infectious Disease, School of Medicine, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Megan M. Schoonveld
- Office of Readiness and Response, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
- Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education, US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, TN, USA
| | - Ashley A. Meehan
- Office of Readiness and Response, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Christina K. Lin
- Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Jay C. Butler
- Office of Readiness and Response, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
- Division of Infectious Disease, School of Medicine, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Emily Mosites
- Office of Readiness and Response, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
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Eyre MT, Souza FN, Carvalho-Pereira TSA, Nery N, de Oliveira D, Cruz JS, Sacramento GA, Khalil H, Wunder EA, Hacker KP, Hagan JE, Childs JE, Reis MG, Begon M, Diggle PJ, Ko AI, Giorgi E, Costa F. Linking rattiness, geography and environmental degradation to spillover Leptospira infections in marginalised urban settings: An eco-epidemiological community-based cohort study in Brazil. eLife 2022; 11:e73120. [PMID: 36111781 PMCID: PMC9560157 DOI: 10.7554/elife.73120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/17/2021] [Accepted: 09/14/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Zoonotic spillover from animal reservoirs is responsible for a significant global public health burden, but the processes that promote spillover events are poorly understood in complex urban settings. Endemic transmission of Leptospira, the agent of leptospirosis, in marginalised urban communities occurs through human exposure to an environment contaminated by bacteria shed in the urine of the rat reservoir. However, it is unclear to what extent transmission is driven by variation in the distribution of rats or by the dispersal of bacteria in rainwater runoff and overflow from open sewer systems. Methods We conducted an eco-epidemiological study in a high-risk community in Salvador, Brazil, by prospectively following a cohort of 1401 residents to ascertain serological evidence for leptospiral infections. A concurrent rat ecology study was used to collect information on the fine-scale spatial distribution of 'rattiness', our proxy for rat abundance and exposure of interest. We developed and applied a novel geostatistical framework for joint spatial modelling of multiple indices of disease reservoir abundance and human infection risk. Results The estimated infection rate was 51.4 (95%CI 40.4, 64.2) infections per 1000 follow-up events. Infection risk increased with age until 30 years of age and was associated with male gender. Rattiness was positively associated with infection risk for residents across the entire study area, but this effect was stronger in higher elevation areas (OR 3.27 95% CI 1.68, 19.07) than in lower elevation areas (OR 1.14 95% CI 1.05, 1.53). Conclusions These findings suggest that, while frequent flooding events may disperse bacteria in regions of low elevation, environmental risk in higher elevation areas is more localised and directly driven by the distribution of local rat populations. The modelling framework developed may have broad applications in delineating complex animal-environment-human interactions during zoonotic spillover and identifying opportunities for public health intervention. Funding This work was supported by the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation and Secretariat of Health Surveillance, Brazilian Ministry of Health, the National Institutes of Health of the United States (grant numbers F31 AI114245, R01 AI052473, U01 AI088752, R01 TW009504 and R25 TW009338); the Wellcome Trust (102330/Z/13/Z), and by the Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado da Bahia (FAPESB/JCB0020/2016). MTE was supported by a Medical Research UK doctorate studentship. FBS participated in this study under a FAPESB doctorate scholarship.
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Affiliation(s)
- Max T Eyre
- Centre for Health Informatics, Computing, and Statistics, Lancaster University Medical SchoolLancasterUnited Kingdom
- Liverpool School of Tropical MedicineLiverpoolUnited Kingdom
| | - Fábio N Souza
- Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of BahiaSalvadorBrazil
| | | | - Nivison Nery
- Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of BahiaSalvadorBrazil
| | - Daiana de Oliveira
- Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of BahiaSalvadorBrazil
| | - Jaqueline S Cruz
- Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of BahiaSalvadorBrazil
| | | | - Hussein Khalil
- Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of BahiaSalvadorBrazil
- Swedish University of Agricultural SciencesUmeåSweden
| | - Elsio A Wunder
- Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Brazilian Ministry of HealthSalvadorBrazil
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public HealthNew HavenUnited States
| | | | - José E Hagan
- World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for EuropeCopenhagenDenmark
| | - James E Childs
- Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Brazilian Ministry of HealthSalvadorBrazil
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public HealthNew HavenUnited States
| | - Mitermayer G Reis
- Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of BahiaSalvadorBrazil
- Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Brazilian Ministry of HealthSalvadorBrazil
| | - Mike Begon
- Department of Evolution, Ecology and Behaviour, University of LiverpoolLiverpoolUnited Kingdom
| | - Peter J Diggle
- Centre for Health Informatics, Computing, and Statistics, Lancaster University Medical SchoolLancasterUnited Kingdom
| | - Albert I Ko
- Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Brazilian Ministry of HealthSalvadorBrazil
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public HealthNew HavenUnited States
| | - Emanuele Giorgi
- Centre for Health Informatics, Computing, and Statistics, Lancaster University Medical SchoolLancasterUnited Kingdom
| | - Federico Costa
- Centre for Health Informatics, Computing, and Statistics, Lancaster University Medical SchoolLancasterUnited Kingdom
- Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of BahiaSalvadorBrazil
- Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Brazilian Ministry of HealthSalvadorBrazil
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public HealthNew HavenUnited States
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3
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The Utility of a Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Model for Ixodes scapularis in Predicting the Public Health Risk of Lyme Disease in Ontario, Canada. Ticks Tick Borne Dis 2022; 13:101969. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ttbdis.2022.101969] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/17/2021] [Revised: 05/05/2022] [Accepted: 05/20/2022] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
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Slatculescu AM, Duguay C, Ogden NH, Sander B, Desjardins M, Cameron DW, Kulkarni MA. Spatiotemporal trends and socioecological factors associated with Lyme disease in eastern Ontario, Canada from 2010-2017. BMC Public Health 2022; 22:736. [PMID: 35418084 PMCID: PMC9006558 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-022-13167-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/09/2021] [Accepted: 03/31/2022] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Currently, there is limited knowledge about socioeconomic, neighbourhood, and local ecological factors that contribute to the growing Lyme disease incidence in the province of Ontario, Canada. In this study, we sought to identify these factors that play an important role at the local scale, where people are encountering ticks in their communities. We used reported human Lyme disease case data and tick surveillance data submitted by the public from 2010–2017 to analyze trends in tick exposure, spatiotemporal clusters of infection using the spatial scan statistic and Local Moran’s I statistic, and socioecological risk factors for Lyme disease using a multivariable negative binomial regression model. Data were analyzed at the smallest geographic unit, consisting of 400–700 individuals, for which census data are disseminated in Canada. We found significant heterogeneity in tick exposure patterns based on location of residence, with 65.2% of Lyme disease patients from the city of Ottawa reporting tick exposures outside their health unit of residence, compared to 86.1%—98.1% of patients from other, largely rural, health units, reporting peri-domestic exposures. We detected eight spatiotemporal clusters of human Lyme disease incidence in eastern Ontario, overlapping with three clusters of Borrelia burgdorferi-infected ticks. When adjusting for population counts, Lyme disease case counts increased with larger numbers of Borrelia burgdorferi-infected ticks submitted by the public, higher proportion of treed landcover, lower neighbourhood walkability due to fewer intersections, dwellings, and points of interest, as well as with regions of higher residential instability and lower ethnic concentration (Relative Risk [RR] = 1.25, 1.02, 0.67–0.04, 1.34, and 0.57, respectively, p < .0001). Our study shows that there are regional differences in tick exposure patterns in eastern Ontario and that multiple socioecological factors contribute to Lyme disease risk in this region.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andreea M Slatculescu
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, 600 Peter Morand Crescent, Ottawa, ON, K1G 5Z3, Canada.
| | - Claudia Duguay
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, 600 Peter Morand Crescent, Ottawa, ON, K1G 5Z3, Canada
| | - Nicholas H Ogden
- Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC, Canada
| | - Beate Sander
- Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment Collaborative, University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada.,Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.,Public Health Ontario, Toronto, ON, Canada.,ICES, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Marc Desjardins
- Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada.,Division of Microbiology, Eastern Ontario Regional Laboratory Association, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - D William Cameron
- Department of Biochemistry, Microbiology and Immunology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada.,Chronic Disease Program, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, ON, Canada.,Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Manisha A Kulkarni
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, 600 Peter Morand Crescent, Ottawa, ON, K1G 5Z3, Canada
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5
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The Lyme Borreliosis Spatial Footprint in the 21st Century: A Key Study of Slovenia. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:ijerph182212061. [PMID: 34831819 PMCID: PMC8619322 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph182212061] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/29/2021] [Revised: 11/09/2021] [Accepted: 11/15/2021] [Indexed: 12/26/2022]
Abstract
After mosquitoes, ticks are the most important vectors of infectious diseases. They play an important role in public health. In recent decades, we discovered new tick-borne diseases; additionally, those that are already known are spreading to new areas because of climate change. Slovenia is an endemic region for Lyme borreliosis and one of the countries with the highest incidence of this disease on a global scale. Thus, the spatial pattern of Slovenian Lyme borreliosis prevalence was modelled with 246 indicators and transformed into 24 uncorrelated predictor variables that were applied in geographically weighted regression and regression tree algorithms. The projected potential shifts in Lyme borreliosis foci by 2050 and 2070 were calculated according to the RCP8.5 climate scenario. These results were further applied to developing a Slovenian Lyme borreliosis infection risk map, which could be used as a preventive decision support system.
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Predicting Spatial Patterns of Sindbis Virus (SINV) Infection Risk in Finland Using Vector, Host and Environmental Data. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:ijerph18137064. [PMID: 34281003 PMCID: PMC8296873 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18137064] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/26/2021] [Revised: 06/27/2021] [Accepted: 06/28/2021] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Pogosta disease is a mosquito-borne infection, caused by Sindbis virus (SINV), which causes epidemics of febrile rash and arthritis in Northern Europe and South Africa. Resident grouse and migratory birds play a significant role as amplifying hosts and various mosquito species, including Aedes cinereus, Culex pipiens, Cx. torrentium and Culiseta morsitans are documented vectors. As specific treatments are not available for SINV infections, and joint symptoms may persist, the public health burden is considerable in endemic areas. To predict the environmental suitability for SINV infections in Finland, we applied a suite of geospatial and statistical modeling techniques to disease occurrence data. Using an ensemble approach, we first produced environmental suitability maps for potential SINV vectors in Finland. These suitability maps were then combined with grouse densities and environmental data to identify the influential determinants for SINV infections and to predict the risk of Pogosta disease in Finnish municipalities. Our predictions suggest that both the environmental suitability for vectors and the high risk of Pogosta disease are focused in geographically restricted areas. This provides evidence that the presence of both SINV vector species and grouse densities can predict the occurrence of the disease. The results support material for public-health officials when determining area-specific recommendations and deliver information to health care personnel to raise awareness of the disease among physicians.
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Noden BH, Tanner EP, Polo JA, Fuhlendorf SD. Invasive woody plants as foci of tick-borne pathogens: eastern redcedar in the southern Great Plains. JOURNAL OF VECTOR ECOLOGY : JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR VECTOR ECOLOGY 2021; 46:12-18. [PMID: 35229576 DOI: 10.52707/1081-1710-46.1.12] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/04/2020] [Accepted: 10/05/2020] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Habitat preference and usage by disease vectors are directly correlated with landscapes often undergoing anthropogenic environmental change. A predominant type of land use change occurring in the United States is the expansion of native and non-native woody plant species in grasslands, but little is known regarding the impact of this expansion on regional vector-borne disease transmission. In this study, we focused on the impact of expanding eastern redcedar (Juniperus virginiana; ERC) and tested two hypotheses involving relationships between habitat preferences of adult tick species in rural habitats in central Oklahoma. Using CO2 traps, we collected ticks from two densities of ERC and grassland and screened adult ticks for the presence of pathogen DNA. We found support for our first hypothesis with significantly more Amblyomma americanum (Linnaeus) and Dermacentor variabilis (Say) collected in ERC habitats than in grassland. Our second hypothesis was also supported, as Ehrlichia- and Rickettsia-infected A. americanum were significantly more likely to be collected from ERC habitats than grassland. As the first evidence that links woody plant encroachment with important tick-borne pathogens in the continental United States, these results have important ramifications involving human and companion animal risk for encountering pathogen-infected ticks in the southern Great Plains.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bruce H Noden
- Department of Entomology and Plant Pathology, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK 74078, U.S.A.
| | - Evan P Tanner
- Caesar Kleberg Wildlife Research Institute, Texas A&M University-Kingsville, Kingsville, TX 78363, U.S.A
- Department of Natural Resource and Ecology Management, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK 74078, U.S.A
| | - John A Polo
- Department of Natural Resource and Ecology Management, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK 74078, U.S.A
| | - Sam D Fuhlendorf
- Department of Natural Resource and Ecology Management, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK 74078, U.S.A
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8
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Altamiranda-Saavedra M, Osorio-Olvera L, Yáñez-Arenas C, Marín-Ortiz JC, Parra-Henao G. Geographic abundance patterns explained by niche centrality hypothesis in two Chagas disease vectors in Latin America. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0241710. [PMID: 33147272 PMCID: PMC7641389 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0241710] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2020] [Accepted: 10/19/2020] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Ecoepidemiological scenarios for Chagas disease transmission are complex, so vector control measures to decrease human–vector contact and prevent infection transmission are difficult to implement in all geographic contexts. This study assessed the geographic abundance patterns of two vector species of Chagas disease: Triatoma maculata (Erichson, 1848) and Rhodnius pallescens (Barber, 1932) in Latin America. We modeled their potential distribution using the maximum entropy algorithm implemented in Maxent and calculated distances to their niche centroid by fitting a minimum-volume ellipsoid. In addition, to determine which method would accurately explain geographic abundance patterns, we compared the correlation between population abundance and the distance to the ecological niche centroid (DNC) and between population abundance and Maxent environmental suitability. The potential distribution estimated for T. maculata showed that environmental suitability covers a large area, from Panama to Northern Brazil. R. pallescens showed a more restricted potential distribution, with environmental suitability covering mostly the coastal zone of Costa Rica and some areas in Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize and the Yucatán Peninsula in Mexico, northern Colombia, Acre, and Rondônia states in Brazil, as well as a small region of the western Brazilian Amazon. We found a negative slope in the relationship between population abundance and the DNC in both species. R. pallecens has a more extensive potential latitudinal range than previously reported, and the distribution model for T. maculata corroborates previous studies. In addition, population abundance increases according to the niche centroid proximity, indicating that population abundance is limited by the set of scenopoetic variables at coarser scales (non-interactive variables) used to determine the ecological niche. These findings might be used by public health agencies in Latin America to implement actions and support programs for disease prevention and vector control, identifying areas in which to expand entomological surveillance and maintain chemical control, in order to decrease human–vector contact.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mariano Altamiranda-Saavedra
- Centro de Investigación en Salud para el Trópico (CIST), Universidad Cooperativa de Colombia, Santa Marta, Colombia
- Politécnico Colombiano Jaime Isaza Cadavid, Medellín, Antioquia, Colombia
- * E-mail:
| | - Luis Osorio-Olvera
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas, United States of America
| | - Carlos Yáñez-Arenas
- Laboratorio de Ecología Geográfica, Unidad de Conservación de la Biodiversidad, UMDI-Sisal, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Juan Carlos Marín-Ortiz
- Departamento de Ciencias Agrarias, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias, Medellín, Colombia
| | - Gabriel Parra-Henao
- Centro de Investigación en Salud para el Trópico (CIST), Universidad Cooperativa de Colombia, Santa Marta, Colombia
- National Health Institute (Instituto Nacional de Salud), Bogotá, Colombia
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Slatculescu AM, Clow KM, McKay R, Talbot B, Logan JJ, Thickstun CR, Jardine CM, Ogden NH, Knudby AJ, Kulkarni MA. Species distribution models for the eastern blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis, and the Lyme disease pathogen, Borrelia burgdorferi, in Ontario, Canada. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0238126. [PMID: 32915794 PMCID: PMC7485816 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0238126] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/05/2020] [Accepted: 08/10/2020] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
The blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis, is established in several regions of Ontario, Canada, and continues to spread into new geographic areas across the province at a rapid rate. This poses a significant public health risk since I. scapularis transmits the Lyme disease-causing bacterium, Borrelia burgdorferi, and other pathogens of potential public health concern. The objective of this study was to develop species distribution models for I. scapularis and B. burgdorferi to predict and compare the potential distributions of the tick vector and the Lyme disease pathogen as well as the ecological factors most important for species establishment. Ticks were collected via tick dragging at 120 sites across southern, central, and eastern Ontario between 2015 and 2018 and tested for tick-borne pathogens. A maximum entropy (Maxent) approach was used to model the potential distributions of I. scapularis and B. burgdorferi. Two independent datasets derived from tick dragging at 25 new sites in 2019 and ticks submitted by the public to local health units between 2015 and 2017 were used to validate the predictive accuracy of the models. The model for I. scapularis showed high suitability for blacklegged ticks in eastern Ontario and some regions along the shorelines of the Great Lakes, and moderate suitability near Algonquin Provincial Park and the Georgian Bay with good predictive accuracy (tick dragging 2019: AUC = 0.898; ticks from public: AUC = 0.727). The model for B. burgdorferi showed a similar predicted distribution but was more constrained to eastern Ontario, particularly between Ottawa and Kingston, and along Lake Ontario, with similarly good predictive accuracy (tick dragging 2019: AUC = 0.958; ticks from public: AUC = 0.863. The ecological variables most important for predicting the distributions of I. scapularis and B. burgdorferi included elevation, distance to deciduous and coniferous forest, proportions of agricultural land, water, and infrastructure, mean summer/spring temperature, and cumulative annual degree days above 0°C. Our study presents a novel application of species distribution modelling for I. scapularis and B. burgdorferi in Ontario, Canada, and provides an up to date projection of their potential distributions for public health knowledge users.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Katie M. Clow
- Department of Population Medicine, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada
| | - Roman McKay
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - Benoit Talbot
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - James J. Logan
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - Charles R. Thickstun
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - Claire M. Jardine
- Department of Pathobiology, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada
- Canadian Wildlife Health Cooperative, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada
| | - Nicholas H. Ogden
- Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Saint-Hyacinthe, Quebec, Canada
| | - Anders J. Knudby
- Department of Geography, Environment, and Geomatics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - Manisha A. Kulkarni
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
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10
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Esser HJ, Liefting Y, Ibáñez-Justicia A, van der Jeugd H, van Turnhout CAM, Stroo A, Reusken CBEM, Koopmans MPG, de Boer WF. Spatial risk analysis for the introduction and circulation of six arboviruses in the Netherlands. Parasit Vectors 2020; 13:464. [PMID: 32912330 PMCID: PMC7488554 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-020-04339-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/13/2020] [Accepted: 09/01/2020] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Arboviruses are a growing public health concern in Europe, with both endemic and exotic arboviruses expected to spread further into novel areas in the next decades. Predicting where future outbreaks will occur is a major challenge, particularly for regions where these arboviruses are not endemic. Spatial modelling of ecological risk factors for arbovirus circulation can help identify areas of potential emergence. Moreover, combining hazard maps of different arboviruses may facilitate a cost-efficient, targeted multiplex-surveillance strategy in areas where virus transmission is most likely. Here, we developed predictive hazard maps for the introduction and/or establishment of six arboviruses that were previously prioritized for the Netherlands: West Nile virus, Japanese encephalitis virus, Rift Valley fever virus, tick-borne encephalitis virus, louping-ill virus and Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus. Methods Our spatial model included ecological risk factors that were identified as relevant for these arboviruses by an earlier systematic review, including abiotic conditions, vector abundance, and host availability. We used geographic information system (GIS)-based tools and geostatistical analyses to model spatially continuous datasets on these risk factors to identify regions in the Netherlands with suitable ecological conditions for arbovirus introduction and establishment. Results The resulting hazard maps show that there is spatial clustering of areas with either a relatively low or relatively high environmental suitability for arbovirus circulation. Moreover, there was some overlap in high-hazard areas for virus introduction and/or establishment, particularly in the southern part of the country. Conclusions The similarities in environmental suitability for some of the arboviruses provide opportunities for targeted sampling of vectors and/or sentinel hosts in these potential hotspots of emergence, thereby increasing the efficient use of limited resources for surveillance.![]()
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Affiliation(s)
- Helen Joan Esser
- Wildlife Ecology & Conservation Group, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands. .,Laboratory of Entomology, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands. .,Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
| | - Yorick Liefting
- Wildlife Ecology & Conservation Group, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Adolfo Ibáñez-Justicia
- Centre for Monitoring of Vectors (CMV), National Reference Centre (NRC), Netherlands Food and Consumer Product Safety Authority (NVWA), Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Henk van der Jeugd
- Vogeltrekstation - Dutch Centre for Avian Migration and Demography (NIOO-KNAW), Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Chris A M van Turnhout
- Sovon Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.,Department of Animal Ecology & Ecophysiology, Institute for Water and Wetland Research, Radboud University, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - Arjan Stroo
- Centre for Monitoring of Vectors (CMV), National Reference Centre (NRC), Netherlands Food and Consumer Product Safety Authority (NVWA), Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Chantal B E M Reusken
- Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.,Department of Viroscience, WHO CC for Arbovirus and Viral Hemorrhagic Fever Reference and Research, Erasmus University Medical Centre, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Marion P G Koopmans
- Department of Viroscience, WHO CC for Arbovirus and Viral Hemorrhagic Fever Reference and Research, Erasmus University Medical Centre, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Willem Fred de Boer
- Wildlife Ecology & Conservation Group, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands
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Elias SP, Maasch KA, Anderson NT, Rand PW, Lacombe EH, Robich RM, Lubelczyk CB, Smith RP. Decoupling of Blacklegged Tick Abundance and Lyme Disease Incidence in Southern Maine, USA. JOURNAL OF MEDICAL ENTOMOLOGY 2020; 57:755-765. [PMID: 31808817 DOI: 10.1093/jme/tjz218] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Lyme disease is caused by the bacterial spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi Johnson, Schmid, Hyde, Steigerwalt, and Brenner (Spirocheatales: Spirochaetaceae) which is transmitted through the bite of an infected blacklegged tick Ixodes scapularis Say (Ixodida: Ixodidae). Maine, USA, is a high Lyme disease incidence state, with rising incidence of Lyme disease and other tick-borne illnesses associated with increasing I. scapularis abundance and northward range expansion. Members of the public submitted ticks to a tick identification program (1990-2013). From these passive surveillance data, we characterized temporal trends in I. scapularis submission rate (an index of abundance), comparing Maine's northern tier (seven counties) versus southern tier (nine counties). In the northern tier, the I. scapularis submission rate increased throughout the duration of the time series, suggesting I. scapularis was emergent but not established. By contrast, in the southern tier, submission rate increased initially but leveled off after 10-14 yr, suggesting I. scapularis was established by the mid-2000s. Active (field) surveillance data from a site in the southern tier-bird tick burdens and questing adult tick collections-corroborated this leveling pattern. Lyme disease incidence and I. scapularis submission rate were temporally correlated in the northern but not southern tier. This suggested a decoupling of reported disease incidence and entomological risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Susan P Elias
- Maine Medical Center Research Institute, Vector-borne Disease Research Laboratory, Scarborough, Maine
| | - Kirk A Maasch
- School of Earth and Climate Sciences, University of Maine, Orono, Maine
| | | | - Peter W Rand
- Maine Medical Center Research Institute, Vector-borne Disease Research Laboratory, Scarborough, Maine
| | - Eleanor H Lacombe
- Maine Medical Center Research Institute, Vector-borne Disease Research Laboratory, Scarborough, Maine
| | - Rebecca M Robich
- Maine Medical Center Research Institute, Vector-borne Disease Research Laboratory, Scarborough, Maine
| | - Charles B Lubelczyk
- Maine Medical Center Research Institute, Vector-borne Disease Research Laboratory, Scarborough, Maine
| | - Robert P Smith
- Maine Medical Center Research Institute, Vector-borne Disease Research Laboratory, Scarborough, Maine
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Werner AK, Strosnider HM. Developing a surveillance system of sub-county data: Finding suitable population thresholds for geographic aggregations. Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol 2020; 33:100339. [PMID: 32370944 DOI: 10.1016/j.sste.2020.100339] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/30/2019] [Revised: 01/22/2020] [Accepted: 02/28/2020] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Environmental Public Health Tracking Program created standardized sub-county geographies that are comparable over time, place, and outcomes. Expected census tract-level counts were calculated for asthma emergency department visits and lung cancer. Census tracts were aggregated for various total population and sub-population thresholds, then suppression and stability were examined. A total of 5,000 persons was recommended for the more common outcome scheme and a total of 20,000 persons was recommended for the rare outcome scheme. Health outcomes with a median case count of 17.0 cases or higher should produce stable estimates at the census tract level. This project generated recommendations for three sub-county geographies that will be useful for surveillance purposes: census tract, a more common outcome aggregation scheme, and a rare outcome aggregation scheme. This methodology can be applied anywhere to aggregate geographic units and produce stable rates at a finer resolution.
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Affiliation(s)
- Angela K Werner
- Division of Environmental Health Science and Practice, National Center for Environmental Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, United States; ORISE Postdoctoral Fellow at the Environmental Public Health Tracking Section, National Center for Environmental Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States.
| | - Heather M Strosnider
- Division of Environmental Health Science and Practice, National Center for Environmental Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, United States.
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De Jesus CE, Ganser C, Kessler WH, White ZS, Bhosale CR, Glass GE, Wisely SM. A Survey of Tick-Borne Bacterial Pathogens in Florida. INSECTS 2019; 10:insects10090297. [PMID: 31540253 PMCID: PMC6780285 DOI: 10.3390/insects10090297] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/25/2019] [Revised: 08/13/2019] [Accepted: 09/11/2019] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Within the past three decades, new bacterial etiological agents of tick-borne disease have been discovered in the southeastern U.S., and the number of reported tick-borne pathogen infections has increased. In Florida, few systematic studies have been conducted to determine the presence of tick-borne bacterial pathogens. This investigation examined the distribution and presence of tick-borne bacterial pathogens in Florida. Ticks were collected by flagging at 41 field sites, spanning the climatic regions of mainland Florida. DNA was extracted individually from 1608 ticks and screened for Anaplasma, Borrelia, Ehrlichia and Rickettsia using conventional PCR and primers that amplified multiple species for each genus. PCR positive samples were Sanger sequenced. Four species of ticks were collected: Amblyomma americanum, Amblyomma maculatum, Dermacentor variabilis, and Ixodes scapularis. Within these ticks, six bacterial species were identified: Borrelia burgdorferi, Borrelia lonestari, Ehrlichia ewingii, Rickettsia amblyommatis, Rickettsia andeanae, Rickettsia parkeri, and Rickettsia endosymbionts. Pathogenic Borrelia, Ehrlichia, and Rickettsia species were all detected in the North and North-Central Florida counties; however, we found only moderate concordance between the distribution of ticks infected with pathogenic bacteria and human cases of tick-borne diseases in Florida. Given the diversity and numerous bacterial species detected in ticks in Florida, further investigations should be conducted to identify regional hotspots of tick-borne pathogens.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carrie E De Jesus
- Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA.
| | - Claudia Ganser
- Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA.
| | - William H Kessler
- Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA.
| | - Zoe S White
- Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA.
| | - Chanakya R Bhosale
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA.
| | - Gregory E Glass
- Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA.
| | - Samantha M Wisely
- Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA.
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Švec P, Hönig V, Zubriková D, Wittmann M, Pfister K, Grubhoffer L. The use of multi-criteria evaluation for the selection of study plots for monitoring of I. ricinus ticks – Example from Central Europe. Ticks Tick Borne Dis 2019; 10:905-910. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ttbdis.2019.04.014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/02/2018] [Revised: 04/09/2019] [Accepted: 04/21/2019] [Indexed: 10/27/2022]
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15
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Porter WT, Motyka PJ, Wachara J, Barrand ZA, Hmood Z, McLaughlin M, Pemberton K, Nieto NC. Citizen science informs human-tick exposure in the Northeastern United States. Int J Health Geogr 2019; 18:9. [PMID: 31064416 PMCID: PMC6505254 DOI: 10.1186/s12942-019-0173-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2019] [Accepted: 04/29/2019] [Indexed: 01/31/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Tick-borne disease is the result of spillover of pathogens into the human population. Traditionally, literature has focused on characterization of tick-borne disease pathogens and ticks in their sylvatic cycles. A limited amount of research has focused on human-tick exposure in this system, especially in the Northeastern United States. Human-tick interactions are crucial to consider when assessing the risk of tick-borne disease since a tick bite is required for spillover to occur. METHODS Citizen scientists collected ticks from the Northeastern US through a free nationwide program. Submitted ticks were identified to species, stage, and sex. Blacklegged ticks, Ixodes scapularis, were tested for the presence of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (s.l.) and hard-tick relapsing fever Borrelia. Seasonality of exposure and the citizen science activity during tick exposure was recorded by the citizen scientist. A negative binomial model was fit to predict county level CDC Lyme disease cases in 2016 using citizen science Ixodes scapularis submissions, state, and county population as predictor variables. RESULTS A total of 3740 submissions, comprising 4261 ticks, were submitted from the Northeastern US and were reported to be parasitizing humans. Of the three species submitted, blacklegged ticks were the most prevalent followed by American dog ticks and lone star ticks. Submissions peaked in May with the majority of exposure occurring during every-day activities. The most common pathogen in blacklegged ticks was B. burgdorferi s.l. followed by hard-tick relapsing fever Borrelia. Negative binomial model performance was best in New England states followed by Middle Atlantic states. CONCLUSIONS Citizen science provides a low-cost and effective methodology for describing the seasonality and characteristics of human-tick exposure. In the Northeastern US, everyday activities were identified as a major mechanism for tick exposure, supporting the role of peri-domestic exposure in tick-borne disease. Citizen science provides a method for broad pathogen and tick surveillance, which is highly related to human disease, allowing for inferences to be made about the epidemiology of tick-borne disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- W. Tanner Porter
- Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, 617 S. Beaver Street, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA
| | - Peter J. Motyka
- Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, 617 S. Beaver Street, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA
| | - Julie Wachara
- Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, 617 S. Beaver Street, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA
| | - Zachary A. Barrand
- Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, 617 S. Beaver Street, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA
| | - Zahraa Hmood
- Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, 617 S. Beaver Street, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA
| | - Marya McLaughlin
- Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, 617 S. Beaver Street, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA
| | - Kelsey Pemberton
- Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, 617 S. Beaver Street, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA
| | - Nathan C. Nieto
- Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, 617 S. Beaver Street, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA
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Hönig V, Švec P, Marek L, Mrkvička T, Dana Z, Wittmann MV, Masař O, Szturcová D, Růžek D, Pfister K, Grubhoffer L. Model of Risk of Exposure to Lyme Borreliosis and Tick-Borne Encephalitis Virus-Infected Ticks in the Border Area of the Czech Republic (South Bohemia) and Germany (Lower Bavaria and Upper Palatinate). INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2019; 16:ijerph16071173. [PMID: 30986900 PMCID: PMC6479554 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16071173] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2019] [Revised: 03/22/2019] [Accepted: 03/26/2019] [Indexed: 01/26/2023]
Abstract
In Europe, Lyme borreliosis (LB) and tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) are the two vector-borne diseases with the largest impact on human health. Based on data on the density of host-seeking Ixodes ricinus ticks and pathogen prevalence and using a variety of environmental data, we have created an acarological risk model for a region where both diseases are endemic (Czech Republic-South Bohemia and Germany-Lower Bavaria, Upper Palatinate). The data on tick density were acquired by flagging 50 sampling sites three times in a single season. Prevalence of the causative agents of LB and TBE was determined. Data on environmental variables (e.g., altitude, vegetation cover, NDVI, land surface temperature) were obtained from various sources and processed using geographical information systems. Generalized linear models were used to estimate tick density, probability of tick infection, and density of infected ticks for the whole area. A significantly higher incidence of human TBE cases was recorded in South Bohemia compared to Bavarian regions, which correlated with a lower tick density in Bavaria. However, the differences in pathogen prevalence rates were not significant. The model outputs were made available to the public in the form of risk maps, indicating the distribution of tick-borne disease risk in space.
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Affiliation(s)
- Václav Hönig
- Institute of Parasitology, Biology Centre, Academy of Sciences of Czech Republic, Branisovska 31, 370 05 Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic.
- Faculty of Science, University of South Bohemia, Branisovska 31, 370 05 Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic.
- Veterinary Research Institute, Hudcova 296, 621 00 Brno, Czech Republic.
| | - Pavel Švec
- Department of Geoinformatics, VSB-Technical University of Ostrava, 17. listopadu 15, 708 00 Ostrava, Czech Republic.
| | - Lukáš Marek
- GeoHealth Laboratory, Geospatial Research Institute, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand.
| | - Tomáš Mrkvička
- Faculty of Economics, University of South Bohemia, Studentska 13, 370 05 Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic.
| | - Zubriková Dana
- Institute of Comparative Tropical Medicine and Parasitology, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Leopoldstr. 5, 80802 Munich, Germany.
- Institute of Parasitology, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Hlinkova 3, 040 01 Kosice, Slovakia.
| | - Maria Vögerl Wittmann
- Institute of Comparative Tropical Medicine and Parasitology, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Leopoldstr. 5, 80802 Munich, Germany.
| | - Ondřej Masař
- Department of Geoinformatics, VSB-Technical University of Ostrava, 17. listopadu 15, 708 00 Ostrava, Czech Republic.
| | - Daniela Szturcová
- Department of Geoinformatics, VSB-Technical University of Ostrava, 17. listopadu 15, 708 00 Ostrava, Czech Republic.
| | - Daniel Růžek
- Institute of Parasitology, Biology Centre, Academy of Sciences of Czech Republic, Branisovska 31, 370 05 Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic.
- Faculty of Science, University of South Bohemia, Branisovska 31, 370 05 Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic.
- Veterinary Research Institute, Hudcova 296, 621 00 Brno, Czech Republic.
| | - Kurt Pfister
- Institute of Comparative Tropical Medicine and Parasitology, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Leopoldstr. 5, 80802 Munich, Germany.
| | - Libor Grubhoffer
- Institute of Parasitology, Biology Centre, Academy of Sciences of Czech Republic, Branisovska 31, 370 05 Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic.
- Faculty of Science, University of South Bohemia, Branisovska 31, 370 05 Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic.
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17
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[Health risk zoning: yellow fever from a geographical perspective in La Macarena, Department of Meta, Colombia]. Salud Colect 2018; 14:19-32. [PMID: 30020357 DOI: 10.18294/sc.2018.1087] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/04/2016] [Accepted: 06/14/2017] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
This paper attempts to zone yellow fever risk in La Macarena (department of Meta, Colombia) in terms of environmental hazards and socio-economic vulnerabilities. An ecological study was carried out, in which data published from 2007 to 2013 on conditions of the municipality were integrated into a geographic information system. Through a superposition of map layers, magnitudes of hazard and vulnerability proportional to the degree of severity were obtained. As a result the spatial heterogeneity of the risk of yellow fever was described, suggesting that the areas surrounding populated centers, roads and rivers present the highest probability of transmission. It is concluded that the cartographic representation of the spatial distribution of risk in the municipality constitutes a methodological contribution to health risk zoning - in concrete geographical areas and based on hazards and vulnerabilities - which facilitates decision-making in public health.
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18
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Melo HA, Rossoni DF, Teodoro U. Effect of vegetation on cutaneous leishmaniasis in Paraná, Brazil. Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz 2018; 113:e170505. [PMID: 29768531 PMCID: PMC5946761 DOI: 10.1590/0074-02760170505] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/17/2017] [Accepted: 04/13/2018] [Indexed: 12/05/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is endemic in the state of Paraná, Brazil. OBJECTIVE This study aimed at analysing the influence of the remaining native vegetation on the prevalence of CL in Paraná. METHODS Global testing was used for spatial autocorrelation along with simultaneous autoregressive model (SAR). The regression was based on the CL coefficient (cases/100,000 inhabitants) as a function of the percentage of natural vegetation cover, altitude, total number of cases, and spatial density (SD) per km2; the location data of the Paraná state municipalities and the detection coefficient (DC) (cases/100,000 inhabitants) of autochthonous cases of CL were obtained from the SINAN in 2012 and 2016. Data on the remaining forests were collected from the Fundação SOS Mata Atlântica and Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais. FINDINGS The spatial regression of DC revealed statistical significance for SD (Z = 24.1359, p < 0.05, 2012-2013; Z = 24.0817, p < 0.05, 2013-2014; Z = 33.4824, p < 0.05, 2014-2015; and Z = 27.1515, p < 0.05, 2015-2016. CONCLUSIONS CL cases are reported in areas with native vegetation, such as in riparian forests. However, vegetation is not the only variable that influences the incidence of CL.
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Affiliation(s)
- Helen Aline Melo
- Universidade Estadual de Maringá, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciências da Saúde, Maringá, PR, Brasil
| | | | - Ueslei Teodoro
- Universidade Estadual de Maringá, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciências da Saúde, Maringá, PR, Brasil
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Johnson TL, Boegler KA, Clark RJ, Delorey MJ, Bjork JKH, Dorr FM, Schiffman EK, Neitzel DF, Monaghan AJ, Eisen RJ. An Acarological Risk Model Predicting the Density and Distribution of Host-Seeking Ixodes scapularis Nymphs in Minnesota. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2018; 98:1671-1682. [PMID: 29637876 PMCID: PMC6086181 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.17-0539] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Ixodes scapularis is the vector of at least seven human pathogens in Minnesota, two of which are known to cause Lyme disease (Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto and Borrelia mayonii). In Minnesota, the statewide incidence of Lyme disease and other I. scapularis–borne diseases and the geographic extent over which cases have been reported have both increased substantially over the last two decades. These changes correspond with an expanding distribution of I. scapularis over a similar time frame. Because the risk of exposure to I. scapularis–borne pathogens is likely related to the number of ticks encountered, we developed an acarological risk model predicting the density of host-seeking I. scapularis nymphs (DON) in Minnesota. The model was informed by sampling 81 sites located in 42 counties in Minnesota. Two main foci were predicted by the model to support elevated densities of host-seeking I. scapularis nymphs, which included the seven-county Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area and counties in northern Minnesota, including Lake of the Woods and Koochiching counties. There was substantial heterogeneity observed in predicted DON across the state at the county scale; however, counties classified as high risk for I. scapularis–borne diseases and counties with known established populations of I. scapularis had the highest proportion of the county predicted as suitable for host-seeking nymphs (≥ 0.13 nymphs/100 m2). The model provides insight into areas of potential I. scapularis population expansion and identifies focal areas of predicted suitable habitat within counties where the incidence of I. scapularis–borne diseases has been historically low.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tammi L Johnson
- Division of Vector-borne Diseases, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado
| | - Karen A Boegler
- Division of Vector-borne Diseases, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado
| | - Rebecca J Clark
- Division of Vector-borne Diseases, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado
| | - Mark J Delorey
- Division of Vector-borne Diseases, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado
| | | | | | | | | | - Andrew J Monaghan
- Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
| | - Rebecca J Eisen
- Division of Vector-borne Diseases, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado
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Ripoche M, Lindsay LR, Ludwig A, Ogden NH, Thivierge K, Leighton PA. Multi-Scale Clustering of Lyme Disease Risk at the Expanding Leading Edge of the Range of Ixodes scapularis in Canada. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2018; 15:E603. [PMID: 29584627 PMCID: PMC5923645 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph15040603] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/27/2018] [Revised: 03/17/2018] [Accepted: 03/21/2018] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
Since its detection in Canada in the early 1990s, Ixodes scapularis, the primary tick vector of Lyme disease in eastern North America, has continued to expand northward. Estimates of the tick's broad-scale distribution are useful for tracking the extent of the Lyme disease risk zone; however, tick distribution may vary widely within this zone. Here, we investigated I. scapularis nymph distribution at three spatial scales across the Lyme disease emergence zone in southern Quebec, Canada. We collected ticks and compared the nymph densities among different woodlands and different plots and transects within the same woodland. Hot spot analysis highlighted significant nymph clustering at each spatial scale. In regression models, nymph abundance was associated with litter depth, humidity, and elevation, which contribute to a suitable habitat for ticks, but also with the distance from the trail and the type of trail, which could be linked to host distribution and human disturbance. Accounting for this heterogeneous nymph distribution at a fine spatial scale could help improve Lyme disease management strategies but also help people to understand the risk variation around them and to adopt appropriate behaviors, such as staying on the trail in infested parks to limit their exposure to the vector and associated pathogens.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marion Ripoche
- Department of Pathology and Microbiology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Montréal, 3200 Rue Sicotte, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC J2S 2M2, Canada.
- Epidemiology of Zoonoses and Public Health Research Unit (GREZOSP), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Montréal, 3200 Rue Sicotte, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC J2S 2M2, Canada.
| | - Leslie Robbin Lindsay
- Zoonoses and Special Pathogens Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada.
| | - Antoinette Ludwig
- Epidemiology of Zoonoses and Public Health Research Unit (GREZOSP), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Montréal, 3200 Rue Sicotte, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC J2S 2M2, Canada.
- Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, 3200 Rue Sicotte, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC J2S 2M2, Canada.
| | - Nicholas H Ogden
- Epidemiology of Zoonoses and Public Health Research Unit (GREZOSP), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Montréal, 3200 Rue Sicotte, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC J2S 2M2, Canada.
- Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, 3200 Rue Sicotte, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC J2S 2M2, Canada.
| | - Karine Thivierge
- Epidemiology of Zoonoses and Public Health Research Unit (GREZOSP), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Montréal, 3200 Rue Sicotte, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC J2S 2M2, Canada.
- Quebec Public Health Laboratory, Quebec Public Health Institute (INSPQ), 20045 Chemin Sainte-Marie, Sainte-Anne-de-Bellevue, QC H9X 3R5, Canada.
- Institute of Parasitology, McGill University, 21111 Lakeshore Road, Sainte-Anne-de-Bellevue, QC H9X 3V9, Canada.
| | - Patrick A Leighton
- Department of Pathology and Microbiology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Montréal, 3200 Rue Sicotte, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC J2S 2M2, Canada.
- Epidemiology of Zoonoses and Public Health Research Unit (GREZOSP), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Montréal, 3200 Rue Sicotte, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC J2S 2M2, Canada.
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21
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Lewis JS, Logan KA, Alldredge MW, Carver S, Bevins SN, Lappin M, VandeWoude S, Crooks KR. The effects of demographic, social, and environmental characteristics on pathogen prevalence in wild felids across a gradient of urbanization. PLoS One 2017; 12:e0187035. [PMID: 29121060 PMCID: PMC5679604 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0187035] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2017] [Accepted: 10/12/2017] [Indexed: 01/12/2023] Open
Abstract
Transmission of pathogens among animals is influenced by demographic, social, and environmental factors. Anthropogenic alteration of landscapes can impact patterns of disease dynamics in wildlife populations, increasing the potential for spillover and spread of emerging infectious diseases in wildlife, human, and domestic animal populations. We evaluated the effects of multiple ecological mechanisms on patterns of pathogen exposure in animal populations. Specifically, we evaluated how ecological factors affected the prevalence of Toxoplasma gondii (Toxoplasma), Bartonella spp. (Bartonella), feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV), and feline calicivirus (FCV) in bobcat and puma populations across wildland-urban interface (WUI), low-density exurban development, and wildland habitat on the Western Slope (WS) and Front Range (FR) of Colorado during 2009-2011. Samples were collected from 37 bobcats and 29 pumas on the WS and FR. As predicted, age appeared to be positively related to the exposure to pathogens that are both environmentally transmitted (Toxoplasma) and directly transmitted between animals (FIV). In addition, WS bobcats appeared more likely to be exposed to Toxoplasma with increasing intraspecific space-use overlap. However, counter to our predictions, exposure to directly-transmitted pathogens (FCV and FIV) was more likely with decreasing space-use overlap (FCV: WS bobcats) and potential intraspecific contacts (FIV: FR pumas). Environmental factors, including urbanization and landscape covariates, were generally unsupported in our models. This study is an approximation of how pathogens can be evaluated in relation to demographic, social, and environmental factors to understand pathogen exposure in wild animal populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jesse S. Lewis
- Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology, Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States of America
| | - Kenneth A. Logan
- Mammals Research, Colorado Parks and Wildlife, Montrose, CO, United States of America
| | - Mat W. Alldredge
- Mammals Research, Colorado Parks and Wildlife, Fort Collins, CO, United States of America
| | - Scott Carver
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Sarah N. Bevins
- USDA-APHIS-Wildlife Services’ National Wildlife Research Center, Fort Collins, CO, United States of America
| | - Michael Lappin
- Department of Clinical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States of America
| | - Sue VandeWoude
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology, and Pathology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States of America
| | - Kevin R. Crooks
- Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology, Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States of America
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Melo HA, Rossoni DF, Teodoro U. Spatial distribution of cutaneous leishmaniasis in the state of Paraná, Brazil. PLoS One 2017; 12:e0185401. [PMID: 28938013 PMCID: PMC5609753 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0185401] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/10/2017] [Accepted: 09/12/2017] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
The geographic distribution of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) makes it a disease of major clinical importance in Brazil, where it is endemic in the state of Paraná. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatial distribution of CL in Paraná between 2001 and 2015, based on data from the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (Information System for Notifiable Diseases) regarding autochthonous CL cases. Spatial autocorrelation was performed using Moran’s Global Index and the Local Indicator of Spatial Association (LISA). The construction of maps was based on categories of association (high-high, low-low, high-low, and low-high). A total of 4,557 autochthonous cases of CL were registered in the state of Paraná, with an annual average of 303.8 (± 135.2) and a detection coefficient of 2.91. No correlation was found between global indices and their respective significance in 2001 (I = -0.456, p = 0.676), but evidence of spatial autocorrelation was found in other years (p< 0.05). In the construction and analysis of the cluster maps, areas with a high-high positive association were found in the Ivaí-Pirapó, Tibagi, Cinzas-Laranjinha, and Ribeira areas. The state of Paraná should keep a constant surveillance over CL due to the prominent presence of socioeconomic and environmental factors such as the favorable circumstances for the vectors present in peri-urban and agriculture áreas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Helen Aline Melo
- Postgraduate Program in Health Sciences, Universidade Estadual de Maringá, Maringá, PR, Brazil
- * E-mail:
| | | | - Ueslei Teodoro
- Postgraduate Program in Health Sciences, Universidade Estadual de Maringá, Maringá, PR, Brazil
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Watson SC, Liu Y, Lund RB, Gettings JR, Nordone SK, McMahan CS, Yabsley MJ. A Bayesian spatio-temporal model for forecasting the prevalence of antibodies to Borrelia burgdorferi, causative agent of Lyme disease, in domestic dogs within the contiguous United States. PLoS One 2017; 12:e0174428. [PMID: 28472096 PMCID: PMC5417420 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0174428] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2016] [Accepted: 03/08/2017] [Indexed: 01/12/2023] Open
Abstract
This paper models the prevalence of antibodies to Borrelia burgdorferi in domestic dogs in the United States using climate, geographic, and societal factors. We then use this model to forecast the prevalence of antibodies to B. burgdorferi in dogs for 2016. The data available for this study consists of 11,937,925 B. burgdorferi serologic test results collected at the county level within the 48 contiguous United States from 2011-2015. Using the serologic data, a baseline B. burgdorferi antibody prevalence map was constructed through the use of spatial smoothing techniques after temporal aggregation; i.e., head-banging and Kriging. In addition, several covariates purported to be associated with B. burgdorferi prevalence were collected on the same spatio-temporal granularity, and include forestation, elevation, water coverage, temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, population density, and median household income. A Bayesian spatio-temporal conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to analyze these data, for the purposes of identifying significant risk factors and for constructing disease forecasts. The fidelity of the forecasting technique was assessed using historical data, and a Lyme disease forecast for dogs in 2016 was constructed. The correlation between the county level model and baseline B. burgdorferi antibody prevalence estimates from 2011 to 2015 is 0.894, illustrating that the Bayesian spatio-temporal CAR model provides a good fit to these data. The fidelity of the forecasting technique was assessed in the usual fashion; i.e., the 2011-2014 data was used to forecast the 2015 county level prevalence, with comparisons between observed and predicted being made. The weighted (to acknowledge sample size) correlation between 2015 county level observed prevalence and 2015 forecasted prevalence is 0.978. A forecast for the prevalence of B. burgdorferi antibodies in domestic dogs in 2016 is also provided. The forecast presented from this model can be used to alert veterinarians in areas likely to see above average B. burgdorferi antibody prevalence in dogs in the upcoming year. In addition, because dogs and humans can be exposed to ticks in similar habitats, these data may ultimately prove useful in predicting areas where human Lyme disease risk may emerge.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stella C. Watson
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, United States of America
| | - Yan Liu
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, United States of America
| | - Robert B. Lund
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, United States of America
| | - Jenna R. Gettings
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, United States of America
| | - Shila K. Nordone
- Department of Molecular and Biomedical Sciences, Comparative Medicine Institute, North Carolina State University, College of Veterinary Medicine, Raleigh, NC, United States of America
| | - Christopher S. McMahan
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, United States of America
| | - Michael J. Yabsley
- Southeastern Cooperative Wildlife Disease Study, Department of Population Health, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, United States of America
- Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, United States of America
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Longbottom J, Browne AJ, Pigott DM, Sinka ME, Golding N, Hay SI, Moyes CL, Shearer FM. Mapping the spatial distribution of the Japanese encephalitis vector, Culex tritaeniorhynchus Giles, 1901 (Diptera: Culicidae) within areas of Japanese encephalitis risk. Parasit Vectors 2017; 10:148. [PMID: 28302156 PMCID: PMC5356256 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-017-2086-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2016] [Accepted: 03/10/2017] [Indexed: 01/01/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Japanese encephalitis (JE) is one of the most significant aetiological agents of viral encephalitis in Asia. This medically important arbovirus is primarily spread from vertebrate hosts to humans by the mosquito vector Culex tritaeniorhynchus. Knowledge of the contemporary distribution of this vector species is lacking, and efforts to define areas of disease risk greatly depend on a thorough understanding of the variation in this mosquito's geographical distribution. RESULTS We assembled a contemporary database of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus presence records within Japanese encephalitis risk areas from formal literature and other relevant resources, resulting in 1,045 geo-referenced, spatially and temporally unique presence records spanning from 1928 to 2014 (71.9% of records obtained between 2001 and 2014). These presence data were combined with a background dataset capturing sample bias in our presence dataset, along with environmental and socio-economic covariates, to inform a boosted regression tree model predicting environmental suitability for Cx. tritaeniorhynchus at each 5 × 5 km gridded cell within areas of JE risk. The resulting fine-scale map highlights areas of high environmental suitability for this species across India, Nepal and China that coincide with areas of high JE incidence, emphasising the role of this vector in disease transmission and the utility of the map generated. CONCLUSIONS Our map contributes towards efforts determining the spatial heterogeneity in Cx. tritaeniorhynchus distribution within the limits of JE transmission. Specifically, this map can be used to inform vector control programs and can be used to identify key areas where the prevention of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus establishment should be a priority.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joshua Longbottom
- Spatial Ecology & Epidemiology Group, Oxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Annie J. Browne
- Spatial Ecology & Epidemiology Group, Oxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - David M. Pigott
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA USA
| | - Marianne E. Sinka
- Oxford Long Term Ecology Laboratory, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Nick Golding
- Quantitative & Applied Ecology Group, School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC Australia
| | - Simon I. Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA USA
- Oxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Catherine L. Moyes
- Spatial Ecology & Epidemiology Group, Oxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Freya M. Shearer
- Spatial Ecology & Epidemiology Group, Oxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
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Manore CA, Ostfeld RS, Agusto FB, Gaff H, LaDeau SL. Defining the Risk of Zika and Chikungunya Virus Transmission in Human Population Centers of the Eastern United States. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2017; 11:e0005255. [PMID: 28095405 PMCID: PMC5319773 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005255] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2016] [Revised: 02/21/2017] [Accepted: 12/13/2016] [Indexed: 02/08/2023] Open
Abstract
The recent spread of mosquito-transmitted viruses and associated disease to the Americas motivates a new, data-driven evaluation of risk in temperate population centers. Temperate regions are generally expected to pose low risk for significant mosquito-borne disease; however, the spread of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) across densely populated urban areas has established a new landscape of risk. We use a model informed by field data to assess the conditions likely to facilitate local transmission of chikungunya and Zika viruses from an infected traveler to Ae. albopictus and then to other humans in USA cities with variable human densities and seasonality. Mosquito-borne disease occurs when specific combinations of conditions maximize virus-to-mosquito and mosquito-to-human contact rates. We develop a mathematical model that captures the epidemiology and is informed by current data on vector ecology from urban sites. The model demonstrates that under specific but realistic conditions, fifty-percent of introductions by infectious travelers to a high human, high mosquito density city could initiate local transmission and 10% of the introductions could result in 100 or more people infected. Despite the propensity for Ae. albopictus to bite non-human vertebrates, we also demonstrate that local virus transmission and human outbreaks may occur when vectors feed from humans even just 40% of the time. Inclusion of human behavioral changes and mitigations were not incorporated into the models and would likely reduce predicted infections. This work demonstrates how a conditional series of non-average events can result in local arbovirus transmission and outbreaks of human disease, even in temperate cities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carrie A. Manore
- Center for Computational Science Tulane University New Orleans, LA, United States of America
- Theoretical Biology and Biophysics Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos, NM, United States of America
- New Mexico Consortium, Suite 301 Los Alamos, NM, United States of America
| | - Richard S. Ostfeld
- Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies Box AB, 2801 Sharon Turnpike Millbrook, NY United States of America
| | - Folashade B. Agusto
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of Kansas Haworth Hall Lawrence, Kansas, United States of America
| | - Holly Gaff
- Department of Biological Sciences Old Dominion University Norfolk, VA, United States of America
- Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science University of KwaZulu-Natal Durban, South Africa
| | - Shannon L. LaDeau
- Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies Box AB, 2801 Sharon Turnpike Millbrook, NY United States of America
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Harwood JF, Richardson AG, Wright JA, Obenauer PJ. Field assessment of yeast- and oxalic Acid-generated carbon dioxide for mosquito surveillance. JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN MOSQUITO CONTROL ASSOCIATION 2014; 30:275-283. [PMID: 25843133 DOI: 10.2987/14-6421r.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
Carbon dioxide (CO2) sources improve the efficacy of mosquito traps. However, traditional CO2 sources (dry ice or compressed gas) may be difficult to acquire for vector surveillance during military contingency operations. For this reason, a new and convenient source of CO2 is required. Two novel CO2 generators were evaluated in order to address this capability gap: 1) an electrolyzer that converts solid oxalic acid into CO2 gas, and 2) CO2 produced by yeast as it metabolizes sugar. The flow rate and CO2 concentration produced by each generator were measured, and each generator's ability to attract mosquitoes to BG-Sentinel™ traps during day surveillance and to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention light traps with incandescent bulbs during night surveillance was compared to dry ice and compressed gas in Jacksonville, FL. The electrolyzed oxalic acid only slightly increased the number of mosquitoes captured compared to unbaited traps. Based on the modest increase in mosquito collection for traps paired with the oxalic acid, it is not a suitable stand-in for either of the 2 traditional CO2 sources. Conversely, the yeast-generated CO2 resulted in collections with mosquito abundance and species richness more closely resembling those of the traditional CO2 sources, despite achieving a lower CO2 flow rate. Therefore, if dry ice or compressed gas cannot be acquired for vector surveillance, yeast-generated CO2 can significantly improve trap capability.
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Affiliation(s)
- James F Harwood
- Navy Entomology Center of Excellence, Box 43, Building 937, Naval Air Station, Jacksonville, FL 32212
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Ikeda T, Yoshimura M, Onoyama K, Oku Y, Nonaka N, Katakura K. Where to deliver baits for deworming urban red foxes for Echinococcus multilocularis control: new protocol for micro-habitat modeling of fox denning requirements. Parasit Vectors 2014; 7:357. [PMID: 25095789 PMCID: PMC4262088 DOI: 10.1186/1756-3305-7-357] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/30/2014] [Accepted: 07/04/2014] [Indexed: 12/04/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Deworming wild foxes by baiting with the anthelmintic praziquantel is being established as a preventive technique against environmental contamination with Echinococcus multilocularis eggs. Improvement of the cost-benefit performance of baiting treatment is required urgently to raise and maintain the efficacy of deworming. We established a spatial model of den site selection by urban red foxes, the definitive host, to specify the optimal micro-habitats for delivering baits in a new modeling approach modified for urban fox populations. METHODS The model was established for two cities (Obihiro and Sapporo) in Hokkaido, Japan, in which a sylvatic cycle of E. multilocularis is maintained. The two cities have different degrees of urbanization. The modeling process was designed to detect the best combination of key environmental factors and spatial scale that foxes pay attention to most (here named 'heeding range') when they select den sites. All possible models were generated using logistic regression analysis, with "presence" or "absence" of fox den as the objective variable, and nine landscape categories customized for urban environments as predictor variables to detect the best subset of predictors. This procedure was conducted for each of ten sizes of concentric circles from dens and control points to detect the best circle size. Out of all models generated, the most parsimonious model was selected using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) inspection. RESULTS Our models suggest that fox dens in Obihiro are located at the center of a circle with 500 m radius including low percentages of wide roads, narrow roads, and occupied buildings, but high percentages of green covered areas; the dens in Sapporo within 300 m radius with low percentages of wide roads, occupied buildings, but high percentages of riverbeds and green covered areas. The variation of the models suggests the necessity of accumulating models for various types of cities in order to reveal the patterns of the model. CONCLUSIONS Our denning models indicating suitable sites for delivering baits will improve the cost-benefit performance of the campaign. Our modeling protocol is suitable for the urban landscapes, and for extracting the heeding range when they select the den sites.
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Affiliation(s)
- Takako Ikeda
- />Laboratory of Parasitology, Graduate School of Veterinary Medicine, Hokkaido University, North-18, West-9, Hokkaido, Sapporo, 060-0818 Japan
- />Laboratory of Wildlife Management, Obihiro University of Agriculture & Veterinary Medicine, Inada-cho, Obihiro, Hokkaido, 080-8555 Japan
| | - Masashi Yoshimura
- />Laboratory of Wildlife Management, Obihiro University of Agriculture & Veterinary Medicine, Inada-cho, Obihiro, Hokkaido, 080-8555 Japan
- />Department of Entomology, California Academy of Sciences, 55 Music Concourse Drive, San Francisco, California 94118 USA
- />Biodiversity and Biocomplexity Unit, Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University, 1919-1 Tancha, Onna-son, Kunigami-gun, Okinawa, 904-0495 Japan
| | - Keiichi Onoyama
- />Laboratory of Wildlife Management, Obihiro University of Agriculture & Veterinary Medicine, Inada-cho, Obihiro, Hokkaido, 080-8555 Japan
| | - Yuzaburo Oku
- />Laboratory of Parasitology, Graduate School of Veterinary Medicine, Hokkaido University, North-18, West-9, Hokkaido, Sapporo, 060-0818 Japan
- />Joint Department of Veterinary medicine, Division of Pathogenetic Veterinary Science, Faculty of Agiculture, Tottori University, Koyama, Tottori, 680-8553 Japan
| | - Nariaki Nonaka
- />Laboratory of Parasitology, Graduate School of Veterinary Medicine, Hokkaido University, North-18, West-9, Hokkaido, Sapporo, 060-0818 Japan
- />Department of Veterinary Sciences, Laboratory of Veterinary Parasitic Diseases, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Miyazaki, Miyazaki, 889-2192 Japan
| | - Ken Katakura
- />Laboratory of Parasitology, Graduate School of Veterinary Medicine, Hokkaido University, North-18, West-9, Hokkaido, Sapporo, 060-0818 Japan
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Corley CD, Pullum LL, Hartley DM, Benedum C, Noonan C, Rabinowitz PM, Lancaster MJ. Disease prediction models and operational readiness. PLoS One 2014; 9:e91989. [PMID: 24647562 PMCID: PMC3960139 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0091989] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/02/2012] [Accepted: 02/19/2014] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
The objective of this manuscript is to present a systematic review of biosurveillance models that operate on select agents and can forecast the occurrence of a disease event. We define a disease event to be a biological event with focus on the One Health paradigm. These events are characterized by evidence of infection and or disease condition. We reviewed models that attempted to predict a disease event, not merely its transmission dynamics and we considered models involving pathogens of concern as determined by the US National Select Agent Registry (as of June 2011). We searched commercial and government databases and harvested Google search results for eligible models, using terms and phrases provided by public health analysts relating to biosurveillance, remote sensing, risk assessments, spatial epidemiology, and ecological niche modeling. After removal of duplications and extraneous material, a core collection of 6,524 items was established, and these publications along with their abstracts are presented in a semantic wiki at http://BioCat.pnnl.gov. As a result, we systematically reviewed 44 papers, and the results are presented in this analysis. We identified 44 models, classified as one or more of the following: event prediction (4), spatial (26), ecological niche (28), diagnostic or clinical (6), spread or response (9), and reviews (3). The model parameters (e.g., etiology, climatic, spatial, cultural) and data sources (e.g., remote sensing, non-governmental organizations, expert opinion, epidemiological) were recorded and reviewed. A component of this review is the identification of verification and validation (V&V) methods applied to each model, if any V&V method was reported. All models were classified as either having undergone Some Verification or Validation method, or No Verification or Validation. We close by outlining an initial set of operational readiness level guidelines for disease prediction models based upon established Technology Readiness Level definitions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Courtney D. Corley
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Laura L. Pullum
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, United States of America
| | - David M. Hartley
- Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC, United States of America
| | - Corey Benedum
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington, United States of America
| | - Christine Noonan
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington, United States of America
| | - Peter M. Rabinowitz
- Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America
| | - Mary J. Lancaster
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington, United States of America
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Porretta D, Mastrantonio V, Amendolia S, Gaiarsa S, Epis S, Genchi C, Bandi C, Otranto D, Urbanelli S. Effects of global changes on the climatic niche of the tick Ixodes ricinus inferred by species distribution modelling. Parasit Vectors 2013; 6:271. [PMID: 24330500 PMCID: PMC3848450 DOI: 10.1186/1756-3305-6-271] [Citation(s) in RCA: 91] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2013] [Accepted: 09/12/2013] [Indexed: 12/04/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Global climate change can seriously impact on the epidemiological dynamics of vector-borne diseases. In this study we investigated how future climatic changes could affect the climatic niche of Ixodes ricinus (Acari, Ixodida), among the most important vectors of pathogens of medical and veterinary concern in Europe. METHODS Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) was used to reconstruct the climatic niche of I. ricinus, and to project it into the future conditions for 2050 and 2080, under two scenarios: a continuous human demographic growth and a severe increase of gas emissions (scenario A2), and a scenario that proposes lower human demographic growth than A2, and a more sustainable gas emissions (scenario B2). Models were reconstructed using the algorithm of "maximum entropy", as implemented in the software Maxent 3.3.3e; 4,544 occurrence points and 15 bioclimatic variables were used. RESULTS In both scenarios an increase of climatic niche of about two times greater than the current area was predicted as well as a higher climatic suitability under the scenario B2 than A2. Such an increase occurred both in a latitudinal and longitudinal way, including northern Eurasian regions (e.g. Sweden and Russia), that were previously unsuitable for the species. CONCLUSIONS Our models are congruent with the predictions of range expansion already observed in I. ricinus at a regional scale and provide a qualitative and quantitative assessment of the future climatically suitable areas for I. ricinus at a continental scale. Although the use of SDM at a higher resolution should be integrated by a more refined analysis of further abiotic and biotic data, the results presented here suggest that under future climatic scenarios most of the current distribution area of I. ricinus could remain suitable and significantly increase at a continental geographic scale. Therefore disease outbreaks of pathogens transmitted by this tick species could emerge in previous non-endemic geographic areas. Further studies will implement and refine present data toward a better understanding of the risk represented by I. ricinus to human health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniele Porretta
- Department of Environmental Biology, University of Rome “La Sapienza”, Via dei Sardi 70, 00185 Rome, Italy
| | - Valentina Mastrantonio
- Department of Environmental Biology, University of Rome “La Sapienza”, Via dei Sardi 70, 00185 Rome, Italy
| | - Sara Amendolia
- Department of Environmental Biology, University of Rome “La Sapienza”, Via dei Sardi 70, 00185 Rome, Italy
| | - Stefano Gaiarsa
- Department of Veterinary Science and Public Health, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Sara Epis
- Department of Veterinary Science and Public Health, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
- School of Bioscience and Biotechnology, University of Camerino, Camerino, Italy
| | - Claudio Genchi
- Department of Veterinary Science and Public Health, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Claudio Bandi
- Department of Veterinary Science and Public Health, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Domenico Otranto
- Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Bari, Bari, Italy
| | - Sandra Urbanelli
- Department of Environmental Biology, University of Rome “La Sapienza”, Via dei Sardi 70, 00185 Rome, Italy
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Bayles BR, Evans G, Allan BF. Knowledge and prevention of tick-borne diseases vary across an urban-to-rural human land-use gradient. Ticks Tick Borne Dis 2013; 4:352-8. [PMID: 23538110 DOI: 10.1016/j.ttbdis.2013.01.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 52] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/22/2012] [Revised: 12/31/2012] [Accepted: 01/07/2013] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
We sought to determine the behavioral risk of exposure to tick-borne diseases across a human land-use gradient in a region endemic for diseases transmitted by the lone star tick. We measured the knowledge, attitudes, and preventive behaviors of visitors to 14 suburban, exurban, and rural recreational parks. A structured interview was conducted to determine respondents' (n=238) knowledge of tick-borne disease risk, perceived susceptibility to tick-borne disease, and tick bite prevention behaviors. We found significant differences across park types for most personal protective behaviors. Individuals in exurban parks were more likely to perform frequent tick checks and use chemical insect repellents compared to other park types (p<0.001), while suburban park visitors were more likely to avoid tick habitats (p<0.05). Disparities exist in the level of knowledge, perceived personal risk, and use of preventive measures across the human land-use gradient, suggesting that targeted public health intervention programs could reduce behavioral exposure risk by addressing specific gaps in knowledge and prevention.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brett R Bayles
- School of Public Health, Saint Louis University, 3545 Lafayette Ave., St. Louis, MO 63104, USA.
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Burkett-Cadena ND, McClure CJW, Estep LK, Eubanks MD. Hosts or habitats: What drives the spatial distribution of mosquitoes? Ecosphere 2013. [DOI: 10.1890/es13-00009.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
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Crowder DW, Dykstra EA, Brauner JM, Duffy A, Reed C, Martin E, Peterson W, Carrière Y, Dutilleul P, Owen JP. West nile virus prevalence across landscapes is mediated by local effects of agriculture on vector and host communities. PLoS One 2013; 8:e55006. [PMID: 23383032 PMCID: PMC3559328 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0055006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/01/2012] [Accepted: 12/18/2012] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) threaten the health of humans, livestock, and wildlife. West Nile virus (WNV), the world’s most widespread arbovirus, invaded the United States in 1999 and rapidly spread across the county. Although the ecology of vectors and hosts are key determinants of WNV prevalence across landscapes, the factors shaping local vector and host populations remain unclear. Here, we used spatially-explicit models to evaluate how three land-use types (orchards, vegetable/forage crops, natural) and two climatic variables (temperature, precipitation) influence the prevalence of WNV infections and vector/host distributions at landscape and local spatial scales. Across landscapes, we show that orchard habitats were associated with greater prevalence of WNV infections in reservoirs (birds) and incidental hosts (horses), while increased precipitation was associated with fewer infections. At local scales, orchard habitats increased the prevalence of WNV infections in vectors (mosquitoes) and the abundance of mosquitoes and two key reservoir species, the American robin and the house sparrow. Thus, orchard habitats benefitted WNV vectors and reservoir hosts locally, creating focal points for the transmission of WNV at landscape scales in the presence of suitable climatic conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- David W Crowder
- Department of Entomology, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, USA.
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Vander Kelen PT, Downs JA, Stark LM, Loraamm RW, Anderson JH, Unnasch TR. Spatial epidemiology of eastern equine encephalitis in Florida. Int J Health Geogr 2012; 11:47. [PMID: 23126615 PMCID: PMC3517371 DOI: 10.1186/1476-072x-11-47] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2012] [Accepted: 10/20/2012] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Eastern Equine Encephalitis virus (EEEV) is an alphavirus with high pathogenicity in both humans and horses. Florida continues to have the highest occurrence of human cases in the USA, with four fatalities recorded in 2010. Unlike other states, Florida supports year-round EEEV transmission. This research uses GIS to examine spatial patterns of documented horse cases during 2005–2010 in order to understand the relationships between habitat and transmission intensity of EEEV in Florida. Methods Cumulative incidence rates of EEE in horses were calculated for each county. Two cluster analyses were performed using density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN). The first analysis was based on regional clustering while the second focused on local clustering. Ecological associations of EEEV were examined using compositional analysis and Euclidean distance analysis to determine if the proportion or proximity of certain habitats played a role in transmission. Results The DBSCAN algorithm identified five distinct regional spatial clusters that contained 360 of the 438 horse cases. The local clustering resulted in 18 separate clusters containing 105 of the 438 cases. Both the compositional analysis and Euclidean distance analysis indicated that the top five habitats positively associated with horse cases were rural residential areas, crop and pastureland, upland hardwood forests, vegetated non-forested wetlands, and tree plantations. Conclusions This study demonstrates that in Florida tree plantations are a focus for epizootic transmission of EEEV. It appears both the abundance and proximity of tree plantations are factors associated with increased risk of EEE in horses and therefore humans. This association helps to explain why there is are spatially distinct differences in the amount of EEE horse cases across Florida.
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Affiliation(s)
- Patrick T Vander Kelen
- Global Health Infectious Disease Research Program, University of South Florida, 3720 Spectrum Blvd, Tampa, FL 33612, USA
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de Melo DPO, Scherrer LR, Eiras ÁE. Dengue fever occurrence and vector detection by larval survey, ovitrap and MosquiTRAP: a space-time clusters analysis. PLoS One 2012; 7:e42125. [PMID: 22848729 PMCID: PMC3405049 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0042125] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/24/2011] [Accepted: 07/03/2012] [Indexed: 01/04/2023] Open
Abstract
The use of vector surveillance tools for preventing dengue disease requires fine assessment of risk, in order to improve vector control activities. Nevertheless, the thresholds between vector detection and dengue fever occurrence are currently not well established. In Belo Horizonte (Minas Gerais, Brazil), dengue has been endemic for several years. From January 2007 to June 2008, the dengue vector Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti was monitored by ovitrap, the sticky-trap MosquiTRAP™ and larval surveys in an study area in Belo Horizonte. Using a space-time scan for clusters detection implemented in SaTScan software, the vector presence recorded by the different monitoring methods was evaluated. Clusters of vectors and dengue fever were detected. It was verified that ovitrap and MosquiTRAP vector detection methods predicted dengue occurrence better than larval survey, both spatially and temporally. MosquiTRAP and ovitrap presented similar results of space-time intersections to dengue fever clusters. Nevertheless ovitrap clusters presented longer duration periods than MosquiTRAP ones, less acuratelly signalizing the dengue risk areas, since the detection of vector clusters during most of the study period was not necessarily correlated to dengue fever occurrence. It was verified that ovitrap clusters occurred more than 200 days (values ranged from 97.0±35.35 to 283.0±168.4 days) before dengue fever clusters, whereas MosquiTRAP clusters preceded dengue fever clusters by approximately 80 days (values ranged from 65.5±58.7 to 94.0±14. 3 days), the former showing to be more temporally precise. Thus, in the present cluster analysis study MosquiTRAP presented superior results for signaling dengue transmission risks both geographically and temporally. Since early detection is crucial for planning and deploying effective preventions, MosquiTRAP showed to be a reliable tool and this method provides groundwork for the development of even more precise tools.
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Affiliation(s)
- Diogo Portella Ornelas de Melo
- Lab. Ecologia Química de Insetos Vetores, Departamento de Parasitologia, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. Av. Presidente Antônio Carlos, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil.
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VANDER KELEN PATRICKT, DOWNS JONIA, BURKETT-CADENA NATHAND, OTTENDORFER CHRISTYL, HILL KEVIN, SICKERMAN STEPHEN, HERNANDEZ JOSÉ, JINRIGHT JOSEPH, HUNT BRENDA, LUSK JOHN, HOOVER VICTOR, ARMSTRONG KEITH, UNNASCH ROBERTS, STARK LILLIANM, UNNASCH THOMASR. Habitat associations of eastern equine encephalitis transmission in Walton County Florida. JOURNAL OF MEDICAL ENTOMOLOGY 2012; 49:746-56. [PMID: 22679885 PMCID: PMC3552394 DOI: 10.1603/me11224] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
Eastern Equine Encephalitis virus (EEEV; family Togaviridae, genus Alphavirus) a highly pathogenic mosquito-borne virus is endemic to eastern North America. The ecology of EEEV in Florida differs from that in other parts of the United States; EEEV in the northeastern United States is historically associated with freshwater wetlands. No formal test of habitat associations of EEEV in Florida has been reported. Geographical Information Sciences (GIS) was used in conjunction with sentinel chicken EEEV seroconversion rate data as a means to examine landscape features associated with EEEV transmission in Walton County, FL. Sentinel sites were categorized as enzootic, periodically enzootic, and negative based on the number of chicken seroconversions to EEEV from 2005 to 2009. EEEV transmission was then categorized by land cover usage using Arc GIS 9.3. The land classification data were analyzed using the Kruskal-Wallis test for each land use class to determine which habitats may be associated with virus transmission as measured by sentinel chicken seroconversion rates. The habitat class found to be most significantly associated with EEEV transmission was tree plantations. The ecological factor most commonly associated with reduced levels of EEEV transmission was vegetated nonforest wetlands. Culiseta melanura (Coquillett), the species generally considered to be the major enzootic EEEV vector, was relatively evenly distributed across all habitat classes, while Aedes vexans (Meigen) and Anopheles crucians Weidemann were most commonly associated with tree plantation habitats.
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Affiliation(s)
- PATRICK T. VANDER KELEN
- Global Health Infectious Disease Research Program, University of South Florida, 3720 Spectrum Blvd., Tampa, FL 33612
| | - JONI A. DOWNS
- Department of Geography, Environment, and Planning, University of South Florida, 4202 E. Fowler Ave., Tampa, FL 33620
| | - NATHAN D. BURKETT-CADENA
- Global Health Infectious Disease Research Program, University of South Florida, 3720 Spectrum Blvd., Tampa, FL 33612
| | - CHRISTY L. OTTENDORFER
- Global Health Infectious Disease Research Program, University of South Florida, 3720 Spectrum Blvd., Tampa, FL 33612
| | - KEVIN HILL
- Global Health Infectious Disease Research Program, University of South Florida, 3720 Spectrum Blvd., Tampa, FL 33612
| | - STEPHEN SICKERMAN
- South Walton County Mosquito Control District, 774 North County Highway 393, Santa Rosa Beach, FL 32459
| | - JOSÉ HERNANDEZ
- South Walton County Mosquito Control District, 774 North County Highway 393, Santa Rosa Beach, FL 32459
| | - JOSEPH JINRIGHT
- South Walton County Mosquito Control District, 774 North County Highway 393, Santa Rosa Beach, FL 32459
| | - BRENDA HUNT
- North Walton Mosquito Control District, 129 Montgomery Circle, DeFuniak Springs, FL 32435
| | - JOHN LUSK
- North Walton Mosquito Control District, 129 Montgomery Circle, DeFuniak Springs, FL 32435
| | - VICTOR HOOVER
- North Walton Mosquito Control District, 129 Montgomery Circle, DeFuniak Springs, FL 32435
| | - KEITH ARMSTRONG
- North Walton Mosquito Control District, 129 Montgomery Circle, DeFuniak Springs, FL 32435
| | | | - LILLIAN M. STARK
- Florida Department of Health, Bureau of Laboratories-Tampa, 3602 Spectrum Blvd., Tampa, FL 33612
| | - THOMAS R. UNNASCH
- Global Health Infectious Disease Research Program, University of South Florida, 3720 Spectrum Blvd., Tampa, FL 33612
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Eisen RJ, Eisen L, Girard YA, Fedorova N, Mun J, Slikas B, Leonhard S, Kitron U, Lane RS. A spatially-explicit model of acarological risk of exposure to Borrelia burgdorferi-infected Ixodes pacificus nymphs in northwestern California based on woodland type, temperature, and water vapor. Ticks Tick Borne Dis 2012; 1:35-43. [PMID: 20532183 DOI: 10.1016/j.ttbdis.2009.12.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
In the far-western United States, the nymphal stage of the western black-legged tick, Ixodes pacificus, has been implicated as the primary vector to humans of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto (hereinafter referred to as B. burgdorferi), the causative agent of Lyme borreliosis in North America. In the present study, we sought to determine if infection prevalence with B. burgdorferi in I. pacificus nymphs and the density of infected nymphs differ between dense-woodland types within Mendocino County, California, and to develop and evaluate a spatially-explicit model for density of infected nymphs in dense woodlands within this high-incidence area for Lyme borreliosis. In total, 4.9% (264) of 5431 I. pacificus nymphs tested for the presence of B. burgdorferi were infected. Among the 78 sampling sites, infection prevalence ranged from 0 to 22% and density of infected nymphs from 0 to 2.04 per 100 m(2). Infection prevalence was highest in woodlands dominated by hardwoods (6.2%) and lowest for redwood (1.9%) and coastal pine (0%). Density of infected nymphs also was higher in hardwood-dominated woodlands than in conifer-dominated ones that included redwood or pine. Our spatial risk model, which yielded an overall accuracy of 85%, indicated that warmer areas with less variation between maximum and minimum monthly water vapor in the air were more likely to include woodlands with elevated acarological risk of exposure to infected nymphs. We found that 37% of dense woodlands in the county were predicted to pose an elevated risk of exposure to infected nymphs, and that 94% of the dense-woodland areas that were predicted to harbor elevated densities of infected nymphs were located on privately-owned land.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca J Eisen
- Division of Vector-Borne Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA.
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Nieto NC, Teglas MB, Stewart KM, Wasley T, Wolff PL. Detection of Relapsing Fever Spirochetes (Borrelia hermsiiandBorrelia coriaceae) in Free-Ranging Mule Deer (Odocoileus hemionus) from Nevada, United States. Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis 2012; 12:99-105. [DOI: 10.1089/vbz.2011.0716] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Nathan C. Nieto
- Department of Animal Biotechnology, University of Nevada, Reno, Nevada
| | - Mike B. Teglas
- Department of Animal Biotechnology, University of Nevada, Reno, Nevada
| | - Kelley M. Stewart
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science, University of Nevada, Reno, Nevada
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Rochlin I, Turbow D, Gomez F, Ninivaggi DV, Campbell SR. Predictive mapping of human risk for West Nile virus (WNV) based on environmental and socioeconomic factors. PLoS One 2011; 6:e23280. [PMID: 21853103 PMCID: PMC3154328 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0023280] [Citation(s) in RCA: 53] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/06/2011] [Accepted: 07/11/2011] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
A West Nile virus (WNV) human risk map was developed for Suffolk County, New York utilizing a case-control approach to explore the association between the risk of vector-borne WNV and habitat, landscape, virus activity, and socioeconomic variables derived from publically available datasets. Results of logistic regression modeling for the time period between 2000 and 2004 revealed that higher proportion of population with college education, increased habitat fragmentation, and proximity to WNV positive mosquito pools were strongly associated with WNV human risk. Similar to previous investigations from north-central US, this study identified middle class suburban neighborhoods as the areas with the highest WNV human risk. These results contrast with similar studies from the southern and western US, where the highest WNV risk was associated with low income areas. This discrepancy may be due to regional differences in vector ecology, urban environment, or human behavior. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) analytical tools were used to integrate the risk factors in the 2000–2004 logistic regression model generating WNV human risk map. In 2005–2010, 41 out of 46 (89%) of WNV human cases occurred either inside of (30 cases) or in close proximity (11 cases) to the WNV high risk areas predicted by the 2000–2004 model. The novel approach employed by this study may be implemented by other municipal, local, or state public health agencies to improve geographic risk estimates for vector-borne diseases based on a small number of acute human cases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ilia Rochlin
- Suffolk County Vector Control, Yaphank, New York, United States of America.
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Le Comber SC, Rossmo DK, Hassan AN, Fuller DO, Beier JC. Geographic profiling as a novel spatial tool for targeting infectious disease control. Int J Health Geogr 2011; 10:35. [PMID: 21592339 PMCID: PMC3123167 DOI: 10.1186/1476-072x-10-35] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/14/2011] [Accepted: 05/18/2011] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Geographic profiling is a statistical tool originally developed in criminology to prioritise large lists of suspects in cases of serial crime. Here, we use two data sets--one historical and one modern--to show how it can be used to locate the sources of infectious disease. RESULTS First, we re-analyse data from a classic epidemiological study, the 1854 London cholera outbreak. Using 321 disease sites as input, we evaluate the locations of 13 neighbourhood water pumps. The Broad Street pump--the outbreak's source--ranks first, situated in the top 0.2% of the geoprofile. We extend our study with an analysis of reported malaria cases in Cairo, Egypt, using 139 disease case locations to rank 59 mosquitogenic local water sources, seven of which tested positive for the vector Anopheles sergentii. Geographic profiling ranks six of these seven sites in positions 1-6, all in the top 2% of the geoprofile. In both analyses the method outperformed other measures of spatial central tendency. CONCLUSIONS We suggest that geographic profiling could form a useful component of integrated control strategies relating to a wide variety of infectious diseases, since evidence-based targeting of interventions is more efficient, environmentally friendly and cost-effective than untargeted intervention.
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Affiliation(s)
- Steven C Le Comber
- Queen Mary University of London, School of Biological and Chemical Sciences, London E1 4NS, UK.
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Brown HE, Yates KF, Dietrich G, MacMillan K, Graham CB, Reese SM, Helterbrand WS, Nicholson WL, Blount K, Mead PS, Patrick SL, Eisen RJ. An acarologic survey and Amblyomma americanum distribution map with implications for tularemia risk in Missouri. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2011; 84:411-9. [PMID: 21363979 PMCID: PMC3042817 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.2011.10-0593] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2010] [Accepted: 11/21/2010] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
In the United States, tickborne diseases occur focally. Missouri represents a major focus of several tickborne diseases that includes spotted fever rickettsiosis, tularemia, and ehrlichiosis. Our study sought to determine the potential risk of human exposure to human-biting vector ticks in this area. We collected ticks in 79 sites in southern Missouri during June 7-10, 2009, which yielded 1,047 adult and 3,585 nymphal Amblyomma americanum, 5 adult Amblyomma maculatum, 19 adult Dermacentor variabilis, and 5 nymphal Ixodes brunneus. Logistic regression analysis showed that areas posing an elevated risk of exposure to A. americanum nymphs or adults were more likely to be classified as forested than grassland, and the probability of being classified as elevated risk increased with increasing relative humidity during the month of June (30-year average). Overall accuracy of each of the two models was greater than 70% and showed that 20% and 30% of the state were classified as elevated risk for human exposure to nymphs and adults, respectively. We also found a significant positive association between heightened acarologic risk and counties reporting tularemia cases. Our study provides an updated distribution map for A. americanum in Missouri and suggests a wide-spread risk of human exposure to A. americanum and their associated pathogens in this region.
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Affiliation(s)
- Heidi E Brown
- Bacterial Diseases Branch, Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
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Eisen L, Eisen RJ. Using geographic information systems and decision support systems for the prediction, prevention, and control of vector-borne diseases. ANNUAL REVIEW OF ENTOMOLOGY 2011; 56:41-61. [PMID: 20868280 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-ento-120709-144847] [Citation(s) in RCA: 70] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/29/2023]
Abstract
Emerging and resurging vector-borne diseases cause significant morbidity and mortality, especially in the developing world. We focus on how advances in mapping, Geographic Information System, and Decision Support System technologies, and progress in spatial and space-time modeling, can be harnessed to prevent and control these diseases. Major themes, which are addressed using examples from tick-borne Lyme borreliosis; flea-borne plague; and mosquito-borne dengue, malaria, and West Nile virus disease, include (a) selection of spatial and space-time modeling techniques, (b) importance of using high-quality and biologically or epidemiologically relevant data, (c) incorporation of new technologies into operational vector and disease control programs, (d) transfer of map-based information to stakeholders, and (e) adaptation of technology solutions for use in resource-poor environments. We see great potential for the use of new technologies and approaches to more effectively target limited surveillance, prevention, and control resources and to reduce vector-borne and other infectious diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lars Eisen
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology, and Pathology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado 80523, USA.
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Houck JA, Hojgaard A, Piesman J, Kuchta RD. Low-density microarrays for the detection of Borrelia burgdorferi s.s. (the Lyme disease spirochete) in nymphal Ixodes scapularis. Ticks Tick Borne Dis 2010; 2:27-36. [PMID: 21771534 DOI: 10.1016/j.ttbdis.2010.10.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/15/2010] [Revised: 10/05/2010] [Accepted: 10/15/2010] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
Lyme disease is the most common tick-borne disease in Europe and North America. In the hyperendemic Lyme disease regions of the eastern United States, nymphal Ixodes scapularis are the principal ticks transmitting the Lyme disease spirochete, Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto (s.s.). Approximately 25% of questing nymphs in endemic regions are infected with spirochetes. High throughput-sensitive and specific methods for testing nymphal I. scapularis for infection with B. burgdorferi are clearly needed. In the current study, we evaluated whether low-density microarrays could be adapted for the rapid and accurate detection and characterization of spirochetes in nymphal I. scapularis. Three different microarray platforms were developed and tested for the detection of spirochetes in ticks. They could both detect and differentiate different Borrelia genospecies, in one case detecting as few as a single copy of Borrelia DNA.
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Affiliation(s)
- Julie A Houck
- Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, UCB 215, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
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Winters AM, Eisen RJ, Delorey MJ, Fischer M, Nasci RS, Zielinski-Gutierrez E, Moore CG, Pape WJ, Eisen L. Spatial risk assessments based on vector-borne disease epidemiologic data: importance of scale for West Nile virus disease in Colorado. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2010; 82:945-53. [PMID: 20439980 PMCID: PMC2861396 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.2010.09-0648] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
We used epidemiologic data for human West Nile virus (WNV) disease in Colorado from 2003 and 2007 to determine 1) the degree to which estimates of vector-borne disease occurrence is influenced by spatial scale of data aggregation (county versus census tract), and 2) the extent of concordance between spatial risk patterns based on case counts versus incidence. Statistical analyses showed that county, compared with census tract, accounted for approximately 50% of the overall variance in WNV disease incidence, and approximately 33% for the subset of cases classified as West Nile neuroinvasive disease. These findings indicate that sub-county scale presentation provides valuable risk information for stakeholders. There was high concordance between spatial patterns of WNV disease incidence and case counts for census tract (83%) but not for county (50%) or zip code (31%). We discuss how these findings impact on practices to develop spatial epidemiologic data for vector-borne diseases and present data to stakeholders.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna M Winters
- Division of Vector-Borne Infectious Diseases, National Center for Vector-Borne, Zoonotic and Enteric Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
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Eisen RJ, Griffith KS, Borchert JN, MacMillan K, Apangu T, Owor N, Acayo S, Acidri R, Zielinski-Gutierrez E, Winters AM, Enscore RE, Schriefer ME, Beard CB, Gage KL, Mead PS. Assessing human risk of exposure to plague bacteria in northwestern Uganda based on remotely sensed predictors. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2010; 82:904-11. [PMID: 20439974 PMCID: PMC2861378 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.2010.09-0737] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/08/2009] [Accepted: 02/01/2010] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
Plague, a life-threatening flea-borne zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis, has most commonly been reported from eastern Africa and Madagascar in recent decades. In these regions and elsewhere, prevention and control efforts are typically targeted at fine spatial scales, yet risk maps for the disease are often presented at coarse spatial resolutions that are of limited value in allocating scarce prevention and control resources. In our study, we sought to identify sub-village level remotely sensed correlates of elevated risk of human exposure to plague bacteria and to project the model across the plague-endemic West Nile region of Uganda and into neighboring regions of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Our model yielded an overall accuracy of 81%, with sensitivities and specificities of 89% and 71%, respectively. Risk was higher above 1,300 meters than below, and the remotely sensed covariates that were included in the model implied that localities that are wetter, with less vegetative growth and more bare soil during the dry month of January (when agricultural plots are typically fallow) pose an increased risk of plague case occurrence. Our results suggest that environmental and landscape features play a large part in classifying an area as ecologically conducive to plague activity. However, it is clear that future studies aimed at identifying behavioral and fine-scale ecological risk factors in the West Nile region are required to fully assess the risk of human exposure to Y. pestis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca J. Eisen
- Division of Vector-Borne Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado; Uganda Virus Research Institute, Entebbe, Uganda
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Shaw IGR, Robbins PF, Jones JP. A Bug's Life and the Spatial Ontologies of Mosquito Management. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1080/00045601003595446] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/19/2022]
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Wang G, Minnis RB, Belant JL, Wax CL. Dry weather induces outbreaks of human West Nile virus infections. BMC Infect Dis 2010; 10:38. [PMID: 20181272 PMCID: PMC2841181 DOI: 10.1186/1471-2334-10-38] [Citation(s) in RCA: 52] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2009] [Accepted: 02/24/2010] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Since its first occurrence in the New York City area during 1999, West Nile virus (WNV) has spread rapidly across North America and has become a major public health concern in North America. By 2002, WNV was reported in 40 states and the District of Columbia with 4,156 human and 14,539 equine cases of infection. Mississippi had the highest human incidence rate of WNV during the 2002 epidemic in the United States. Epidemics of WNV can impose enormous impacts on local economies. Therefore, it is advantageous to predict human WNV risks for cost-effective controls of the disease and optimal allocations of limited resources. Understanding relationships between precipitation and WNV transmission is crucial for predicting the risk of the human WNV disease outbreaks under predicted global climate change scenarios. Methods We analyzed data on the human WNV incidences in the 82 counties of Mississippi in 2002, using standard morbidity ratio (SMR) and Bayesian hierarchical models, to determine relationships between precipitation and human WNV risks. We also entertained spatial autocorrelations of human WNV risks with conditional autocorrelative (CAR) models, implemented in WinBUGS 1.4.3. Results We observed an inverse relationship between county-level human WNV incidence risk and total annual rainfall during the previous year. Parameters representing spatial heterogeneity in the risk of human exposure to WNV improved model fit. Annual precipitation of the previous year was a predictor of spatial variation of WNV risk. Conclusions Our results have broad implications for risk assessment of WNV and forecasting WNV outbreaks. Assessing risk of vector-born infectious diseases will require understanding of complex ecological relationships. Based on the climatologically characteristic drought occurrence in the past and on climate model predictions for climate change and potentially greater drought occurrence in the future, we suggest that the frequency and relative risk of WNV outbreaks could increase.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guiming Wang
- Department of Wildlife, Fisheries and Aquaculture, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, Mississippi 39762, USA.
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Mapping environmental dimensions of dengue fever transmission risk in the Aburrá Valley, Colombia. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2009; 6:3040-55. [PMID: 20049244 PMCID: PMC2800332 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph6123040] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/21/2009] [Accepted: 11/18/2009] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Abstract
Dengue fever (DF) is endemic in Medellín, the second largest Colombian city, and surrounding municipalities. We used DF case and satellite environmental data to investigate conditions associated with suitable areas for DF occurrence in 2008 in three municipalities (Bello, Medellín and Itagüí). We develop spatially stratified tests of ecological niche models, and found generally good predictive ability, with all model tests yielding results significantly better than random expectations. We concluded that Bello and Medellín present ecological conditions somewhat different from, and more suitable for DF than, those of Itagüí. We suggest that areas predicted by our models as suitable for DF could be considered as at-risk, and could be used to guide campaigns for DF prevention in these municipalities.
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Liu A, Lee V, Galusha D, Slade MD, Diuk-Wasser M, Andreadis T, Scotch M, Rabinowitz PM. Risk factors for human infection with West Nile Virus in Connecticut: a multi-year analysis. Int J Health Geogr 2009; 8:67. [PMID: 19943935 PMCID: PMC2788533 DOI: 10.1186/1476-072x-8-67] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/20/2009] [Accepted: 11/27/2009] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The optimal method for early prediction of human West Nile virus (WNV) infection risk remains controversial. We analyzed the predictive utility of risk factor data for human WNV over a six-year period in Connecticut. Results and Discussion Using only environmental variables or animal sentinel data was less predictive than a model that considered all variables. In the final parsimonious model, population density, growing degree-days, temperature, WNV positive mosquitoes, dead birds and WNV positive birds were significant predictors of human infection risk, with an ROC value of 0.75. Conclusion A real-time model using climate, land use, and animal surveillance data to predict WNV risk appears feasible. The dynamic patterns of WNV infection suggest a need to periodically refine such prediction systems. Methods Using multiple logistic regression, the 30-day risk of human WNV infection by town was modeled using environmental variables as well as mosquito and wild bird surveillance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ann Liu
- Yale Center for Medical Informatics, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA.
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Eisen L, Lozano-Fuentes S. Use of mapping and spatial and space-time modeling approaches in operational control of Aedes aegypti and dengue. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2009; 3:e411. [PMID: 19399163 PMCID: PMC2668799 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0000411] [Citation(s) in RCA: 86] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
The aims of this review paper are to 1) provide an overview of how mapping and spatial and space-time modeling approaches have been used to date to visualize and analyze mosquito vector and epidemiologic data for dengue; and 2) discuss the potential for these approaches to be included as routine activities in operational vector and dengue control programs. Geographical information system (GIS) software are becoming more user-friendly and now are complemented by free mapping software that provide access to satellite imagery and basic feature-making tools and have the capacity to generate static maps as well as dynamic time-series maps. Our challenge is now to move beyond the research arena by transferring mapping and GIS technologies and spatial statistical analysis techniques in user-friendly packages to operational vector and dengue control programs. This will enable control programs to, for example, generate risk maps for exposure to dengue virus, develop Priority Area Classifications for vector control, and explore socioeconomic associations with dengue risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lars Eisen
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Pathology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America.
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Wu PC, Lay JG, Guo HR, Lin CY, Lung SC, Su HJ. Higher temperature and urbanization affect the spatial patterns of dengue fever transmission in subtropical Taiwan. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2009; 407:2224-2233. [PMID: 19157509 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2008.11.034] [Citation(s) in RCA: 139] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/03/2008] [Revised: 11/07/2008] [Accepted: 11/13/2008] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Our study conducted spatial analysis to examine how temperature and other environmental factors might affect dengue fever distributions, and to forecast areas with potential risk for dengue fever endemics with predicted climatic change in Taiwan. Geographic information system (GIS) was used to demonstrate the spatial patterns of all studied variables across 356 townships. Relationships between cumulative incidence of dengue fever, climatic and non-climatic factors were explored. Numbers of months with average temperature higher than 18 degrees C per year and degree of urbanization were found to be associated with increasing risk of dengue fever incidence at township level. With every 1 degrees C increase of monthly average temperature, the total population at risk for dengue fever transmission would increase by 1.95 times (from 3,966,173 to 7,748,267). A highly-suggested warmer trend, with a statistical model, across the Taiwan Island is predicted to result in a sizable increase in population and geographical areas at higher risk for dengue fever epidemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pei-Chih Wu
- Department of Occupational Safety and Health, Chang Jung Christian University, 396 Chang Jung Rd., Sec.1, Kway Jen, Tainan 71101, Taiwan, ROC.
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