Temporal correlations between mosquito-based dengue virus surveillance measures or indoor mosquito abundance and dengue case numbers in Mérida City, México

The association between dengue case and climate: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Although previous research frequently indicates that climate factors impact dengue transmission, the results are inconsistent. Therefore, this systematic review and meta-analysis highlights and address the complex global health problems towards the human-environment interface and the inter-relationship between these variables. For this purpose, four online electronic databases were searched to conduct a systematic assessment of published studies reporting the association between dengue cases and climate between 2010 and 2022. The meta-analysis was conducted using random effects to assess correlation, publication bias and heterogeneity. The final assessment included eight studies for both systematic review and meta-analysis. A total of four meta-analyses were conducted to evaluate the correlation of dengue cases with climate variables, namely precipitation, temperature, minimum temperature and relative humidity. The highest correlation is observed for precipitation between 83 mm and 15 mm (r = 0.38, 95% CI = 0.31, 0.45), relative humidity between 60.5% and 88.7% (r = 0.30, 95% CI = 0.23, 0.37), minimum temperature between 6.5 °C and 21.4 °C (r = 0.28, 95% CI = 0.05, 0.48) and mean temperature between 21.0 °C and 29.8 °C (r = 0.07, 95% CI = -0.1, 0.24). Thus, the influence of climate variables on the magnitude of dengue cases in terms of their distribution, frequency, and prevailing variables was established and conceptualised. The results of this meta-analysis enable multidisciplinary collaboration to improve dengue surveillance, epidemiology, and prevention programmes.

Exploring the utility of social-ecological and entomological risk factors for dengue infection as surveillance indicators in the dengue hyper-endemic city of Machala, Ecuador

The management of mosquito-borne diseases is a challenge in southern coastal Ecuador, where dengue is hyper-endemic and co-circulates with other arboviral diseases. Prior work in the region has explored social-ecological factors, dengue case data, and entomological indices. In this study, we bring together entomological and epidemiological data to describe links between social-ecological factors associated with risk of dengue transmission at the household level in Machala, Ecuador. Households surveys were conducted from 2014-2017 to assess the presence of adult Aedes aegypti (collected via aspiration) and to enumerate housing conditions, demographics, and mosquito prevention behaviors. Household-level dengue infection status was determined by laboratory diagnostics in 2014-2015. Bivariate analyses and multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify social-ecological variables associated with household presence of female Ae. aegypti and household dengue infection status, respectively. Aedes aegypti presence was associated with interruptions in water service and weekly trash collection, and household air conditioning was protective against mosquito presence. Presence of female Ae. aegypti was not associated with household dengue infections. We identified shaded patios and head of household employment status as risk factors for household-level dengue infection, while window screening in good condition was identified as protective against dengue infection. These findings add to our understanding of the systems of mosquito-borne disease transmission in Machala, and in the larger region of southern Ecuador, aiding in the development of improved vector surveillance efforts, and targeted interventions.

Arbovirus vectors of epidemiological concern in the Americas: A scoping review of entomological studies on Zika, dengue and chikungunya virus vectors

Background

Three arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) causing human disease have been the focus of a large number of studies in the Americas since 2013 due to their global spread and epidemiological impacts: Zika, dengue, and chikungunya viruses. A large proportion of infections by these viruses are asymptomatic. However, all three viruses are associated with moderate to severe health consequences in a small proportion of cases. Two mosquito species, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, are among the world’s most prominent arboviral vectors, and are known vectors for all three viruses in the Americas.

Objectives

This review summarizes the state of the entomological literature surrounding the mosquito vectors of Zika, dengue and chikungunya viruses and factors affecting virus transmission. The rationale of the review was to identify and characterize entomological studies that have been conducted in the Americas since the introduction of chikungunya virus in 2013, encompassing a period of arbovirus co-circulation, and guide future research based on identified knowledge gaps.

Methods

The preliminary search for this review was conducted on PubMed (National Library of Health, Bethesda, MD, United States). The search included the terms ‘zika’ OR ‘dengue’ OR ‘chikungunya’ AND ‘vector’ OR ‘Aedes aegypti’ OR ‘Aedes albopictus’. The search was conducted on March 1^st of 2018, and included all studies since January 1^st of 2013.

Results

A total of 96 studies were included in the scoping review after initial screening and subsequent exclusion of out-of-scope studies, secondary data publications, and studies unavailable in English language.

Key findings

We observed a steady increase in number of publications, from 2013 to 2018, with half of all studies published from January 2017 to March 2018. Interestingly, information on Zika virus vector species composition was abundant, but sparse on Zika virus transmission dynamics. Few studies examined natural infection rates of Zika virus, vertical transmission, or co-infection with other viruses. This is in contrast to the wealth of research available on natural infection and co-infection for dengue and chikungunya viruses, although vertical transmission research was sparse for all three viruses.

Entomological and virological surveillance for dengue virus in churches in Merida, Mexico

This study was designed to assess whether churches in endemic dengue districts in Merida, Mexico provide suitable breeding habitats for mosquitoes and are potential sites for dengue virus (DENV) transmission. Churches were inspected for immature and adult mosquitoes once every week from November 2015 to October 2016. A total of 10,997 immatures of five species were collected. The most abundant species were Aedes aegypti (6,051) and Culex quinquefasciatus (3,018). The most common source of immature Ae. aegypti were buckets followed by disposable containers. Adult collections yielded 21,226 mosquitoes of nine species. The most common species were Cx. quinquefasciatus (15,215) and Ae. aegypti (3,902). Aedes aegypti were found all year long. Female Ae. aegypti (1,380) were sorted into pools (166) and assayed for flavivirus RNA by RT-PCR and Sanger sequencing. Two pools were positive for DENV (DENV-1 and 2). In conclusion, we demonstrated that some churches in Merida are infested with mosquitoes all year long and they potentially serve as sites for DENV transmission and should therefore be considered for inclusion in mosquito and arboviruses control and surveillance efforts.

Study of Aedes aegypti population with emphasis on the gonotrophic cycle length and identification of arboviruses: implications for vector management in cemeteries

Aedes aegypti is the vector of the arboviruses causing dengue, chikungunya and zika infections in Mexico. However, its presence in public places has not been fully evaluated. In a cemetery from Merida, Yucatan, Mexico, the productivity of Ae. aegypti, the gonotrophic cycle, and the presence of Ae. aegypti females infected with arboviruses were evaluated. Immature and adult mosquitoes were inspected every two months between April 2016 to June 2017. For the gonotrophic cycle length, the daily pattern of total and parous female ratio was registered and was analyzed using time series analysis. Ae. aegypti females were sorted into pools and assayed for flavivirus RNA by RT-PCR and Sanger sequencing. Aedes aegypti immatures represented 82.86% (8,627/10,411) of the collection. In total, 1,648 Ae. aegypti females were sorted into 166 pools. Two pools were positive; one for dengue virus (DENV-1) and the other for zika virus (ZIKV). The phylogenetic analysis revealed that the DENV-1 is more closely related to isolates from Brazil. While ZIKV is more closely related to the Asian lineage, which were isolates from Guatemala and Mexico. We report some evidence of vertical transmission of DENV-1 in nulliparous females of Ae. aegypti. The gonotrophic cycle was four and three days in the rainy and dry season, respectively. The cemetery of Merida is an important focus of Ae. aegypti proliferation, and these environments may play a role in arboviruses transmission; probably limiting the efficacy of attempts to suppress the presence of mosquitoes in domestic environments.

The Use of Insecticide-Treated Curtains for Control of Aedes aegypti and Dengue Virus Transmission in "Fraccionamiento" Style Houses in México

Dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika viruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes are major public health threats in the tropical and subtropical world. In México, construction of large tracts of “fraccionamientos” high density housing to accommodate population growth and urbanization has provided fertile ground for Ae. aegypti-transmitted viruses. We investigated the utility of pyrethroid-treated window curtains to reduce both the abundance of Ae. aegypti and to prevent dengue virus (DENV) transmission in fraccionamiento housing. Windows and doors of fraccionamiento homes in urban/suburban areas, where Ae. aegypti pyrethroid resistance associated with the Ile1016 knock down resistance (kdr) mutation in the voltage gated sodium channel gene was high, and in rural areas, where kdr resistance was low, were fitted with either insecticide-treated curtains (ITCs) or non-treated curtains (NTCs). The homes were monitored for mosquito abundance and DENV infection. ITCs reduced the indoor abundance of Ae. aegypti and the number of DENV-infected mosquitoes in homes in rural but not in urban/suburban study sites. The presence of non-treated screens also was associated with reduced numbers of mosquitoes in homes. “Super-infested” homes, yielding more than 50 mosquitoes, including DENV-infected mosquitoes, provide a significant public health risk to occupants, visitors, and people in neighboring homes.

Machine learning methods reveal the temporal pattern of dengue incidence using meteorological factors in metropolitan Manila, Philippines

Background

Several studies have applied ecological factors such as meteorological variables to develop models and accurately predict the temporal pattern of dengue incidence or occurrence. With the vast amount of studies that investigated this premise, the modeling approaches differ from each study and only use a single statistical technique. It raises the question of whether which technique would be robust and reliable. Hence, our study aims to compare the predictive accuracy of the temporal pattern of Dengue incidence in Metropolitan Manila as influenced by meteorological factors from four modeling techniques, (a) General Additive Modeling, (b) Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with exogenous variables (c) Random Forest and (d) Gradient Boosting.

Methods

Dengue incidence and meteorological data (flood, precipitation, temperature, southern oscillation index, relative humidity, wind speed and direction) of Metropolitan Manila from January 1, 2009 – December 31, 2013 were obtained from respective government agencies. Two types of datasets were used in the analysis; observed meteorological factors (MF) and its corresponding delayed or lagged effect (LG). After which, these datasets were subjected to the four modeling techniques. The predictive accuracy and variable importance of each modeling technique were calculated and evaluated.

Results

Among the statistical modeling techniques, Random Forest showed the best predictive accuracy. Moreover, the delayed or lag effects of the meteorological variables was shown to be the best dataset to use for such purpose. Thus, the model of Random Forest with delayed meteorological effects (RF-LG) was deemed the best among all assessed models. Relative humidity was shown to be the top-most important meteorological factor in the best model.

Conclusion

The study exhibited that there are indeed different predictive outcomes generated from each statistical modeling technique and it further revealed that the Random forest model with delayed meteorological effects to be the best in predicting the temporal pattern of Dengue incidence in Metropolitan Manila. It is also noteworthy that the study also identified relative humidity as an important meteorological factor along with rainfall and temperature that can influence this temporal pattern.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-018-3066-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Application of Artificial Neural Networks for Dengue Fever Outbreak Predictions in the Northwest Coast of Yucatan, Mexico and San Juan, Puerto Rico

Modelling dengue fever in endemic areas is important to mitigate and improve vector-borne disease control to reduce outbreaks. This study applied artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict dengue fever outbreak occurrences in San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA), and in several coastal municipalities of the state of Yucatan, Mexico, based on specific thresholds. The models were trained with 19 years of dengue fever data for Puerto Rico and six years for Mexico. Environmental and demographic data included in the predictive models were sea surface temperature (SST), precipitation, air temperature (i.e., minimum, maximum, and average), humidity, previous dengue cases, and population size. Two models were applied for each study area. One predicted dengue incidence rates based on population at risk (i.e., numbers of people younger than 24 years), and the other on the size of the vulnerable population (i.e., number of people younger than five years and older than 65 years). The predictive power was above 70% for all four model runs. The ANNs were able to successfully model dengue fever outbreak occurrences in both study areas. The variables with the most influence on predicting dengue fever outbreak occurrences for San Juan, Puerto Rico, included population size, previous dengue cases, maximum air temperature, and date. In Yucatan, Mexico, the most important variables were population size, previous dengue cases, minimum air temperature, and date. These models have predictive skills and should help dengue fever mitigation and management to aid specific population segments in the Caribbean region and around the Gulf of Mexico.

Blood Feeding Status, Gonotrophic Cycle and Survivorship of Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae) Caught in Churches from Merida, Yucatan, Mexico

Blood-feeding status, gonotrophic cycle, and survival rates of Aedes (Stegmyia) aegypti (L.) was investigated in catholic churches from Merida, Yucatan. Female Ae. aegypti were caught using backpack aspirator during 25 consecutive days in rainy (2015) and dry season (2016). Blood-feeding status was determined by external examination of the abdomen and classified as unfed, fed, and gravid. Daily changes in the parous-nulliparous ratio were recorded, and the gonotrophic cycle length was estimated by a time series analysis. Also, was observed the vitellogenesis to monitoring egg maturity. In total, 408 females Ae. aegypti were caught, and there was a significant difference in the number of females collected per season (Z = -6.729, P ≤ 0.05). A great number was caught in the rainy season (n = 329). In the dry season, 79 females were caught, which the fed females were twice greatest than the unfed. The length of gonotrophic cycle was estimated on the base of a high correlation coefficient value appearing every 4 days in rainy at 26.7 ± 1.22°C, and 3 days in dry season at 29.8 ± 1.47°C. The daily survival rate of the Ae. aegypti population was higher in both seasons, 0.94 and 0.93 for the rainy and dry season, respectively. The minimum time estimated for developing mature eggs after blood feeding was similar in both seasons (3.5 days in rainy versus 3.25 days in dry). The measurement of the vectorial capacity of Ae. aegypti in catholic churches could help to understand the dynamics of transmission of arboviruses in sites with high human aggregation.

Modelling dengue fever risk in the State of Yucatan, Mexico using regional-scale satellite-derived sea surface temperature

Accurately predicting vector-borne diseases, such as dengue fever, is essential for communities worldwide. Changes in environmental parameters such as precipitation, air temperature, and humidity are known to influence dengue fever dynamics. Furthermore, previous studies have shown how oceanographic variables, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related sea surface temperature from the Pacific Ocean, influences dengue fever in the Americas. However, literature is lacking on the use of regional-scale satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) to assess its relationship with dengue fever in coastal areas. Data on confirmed dengue cases, demographics, precipitation, and air temperature were collected. Incidence of weekly dengue cases was examined. Stepwise multiple regression analyses (AIC model selection) were used to assess which environmental variables best explained increased dengue incidence rates. SST, minimum air temperature, precipitation, and humidity substantially explained 42% of the observed variation (r²=0.42). Infectious diseases are characterized by the influence of past cases on current cases and results show that previous dengue cases alone explained 89% of the variation. Ordinary least-squares analyses showed a positive trend of 0.20±0.03°C in SST from 2006 to 2015. An important element of this study is to help develop strategic recommendations for public health officials in Mexico by providing a simple early warning capability for dengue incidence.

Ecological Niche Model for Predicting Distribution of Disease-Vector Mosquitoes in Yucatán State, México

The majority of the Yucatán State, México, presents subtropical climate that is suitable for many species of mosquitoes that are known to be vectors of diseases, including those from the genera Aedes and Culex. The objective of this study is to identify the geographic distribution of five species from these two genera and estimate the human population at risk of coming in contact with them. We compiled distributional data for Aedes aegypti (L.), Aedes (Howardina) cozumelensis (Diaz Najera), Culex coronator Dyar and Knab, Culex quinquefasciatus Say, and Culex thriambus Dyar from several entomological studies in Yucatán between March 2010 and September 2014. Based on these data, we constructed ecological niche models to predict the spatial distribution of each species using the MaxEnt algorithm. Our models identified areas with suitable environments for Ae. aegypti in most of Yucatán. A similar percentage of urban (97.1%) and rural (96.5%) populations were contained in areas of highest suitability for Ae. aegypti, and no spatial pattern was found (Moran's I = 0.33, P = 0.38); however, we found an association of abundance of immature forms of this species with annual mean temperature (r = 0.19, P ≤ 0.001) and annual precipitation (r = 0.21, P ≤ 0.001). Aedes cozumelensis is also distributed in most areas of the Yucatán State; Cx. quinquefasciatus, Cx. coronator, and Cx. thriambus are restricted to the northwest. The information generated in this study can inform decision-making to address control measures in priority areas with presence of these vectors.

Natural vertical transmission of dengue viruses in Aedes aegypti in selected sites in Cebu City, Philippines

We attempted to determine the vertical transmission of dengue virus (DENV) in Aedes aegypti in selected sites in Cebu City, Philippines. Mosquito sub-adults were collected monthly from households and the field during the wet-dry-wet season from November, 2011 to July, 2012 and were laboratory-reared to adults. Viral RNA extracts in mosquitoes were assayed by hemi-nested RT-PCR. Results showed that 62 (36.26%; n=679) out of 171 mosquito pools (n=2,871) were DENV+. The minimum infection rate (MIR) of DENV ranged from 0 in wet months to 48.22/1,000 mosquitoes in April, 2012 (mid-dry). DENVs were detected in larvae, pupae, and male and female adults, with DENV-4, DENV-3, and DENV-1, in that rank of prevalence. DENV-1 co-infected with either DENV-3 or -4 or with both in April, 2012; DENV-3 and -4 were present in both seasons. More DENV+ mosquitoes were collected from households than in field premises (p<0.001) and in the dry than in the wet season (p<0.05), with significant interaction (p<0.05) between sites and premises but no interaction between sites and seasons (p>0.05). By Generalized Linear Mixed models, the type of premises nested in sites and monthly total rainfall were significant predictors of monthly dengue cases (p<0.05) and not MIR, season, temperature, and relative humidity. Surveillance of DENV prevalence in Ae. aegypti and detecting their natural foci in the dry season provide an early warning signal of dengue outbreak.