The Techa River Cohort: Study Design and Follow-up Methods

Revisiting the Historic Strontium-90 Ingestion Beagle Study Conducted at the University of California Davis: Opportunity in Archival Materials

Strontium-90 is a radionuclide found in high concentrations in nuclear reactor waste and nuclear fallout from reactor accidents and atomic bomb explosions. In the 1950s, little was known regarding the health consequences of strontium-90 internalization. To assess the health effects of strontium-90 ingestion in infancy through adolescence, the Atomic Energy Commission and Department of Energy funded large-scale beagle studies at the University of California Davis. Conducted from 1956 to 1989, the strontium-90 ingestion study followed roughly 460 beagles throughout their lifespans after they were exposed to strontium-90 in utero (through feeding of the mother) and fed strontium-90 feed at varying doses from weaning to age 540 days. The extensive medical data and formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissues were transferred from UC Davis to the National Radiobiology Archive in 1992 and subsequently to the Northwestern University Radiobiology Archive in 2010. Here, we summarize the design of the strontium-90 ingestion study and give an overview of its most frequent recorded findings. As shown before, radiation-associated neoplasias (osteosarcoma, myeloproliferative syndrome and select squamous cell carcinomas) were almost exclusively observed in the highest dose groups, while the incidence of neoplasias most frequent in controls decreased as dose increased. The occurrence of congestive heart failure in each dose group, not previously assessed by UC Davis researchers, showed a non-significant increase between the controls and lower dose groups that may have been significant had sample sizes been larger. Detailed secondary analyses of these data and samples may uncover health endpoints that were not evaluated by the team that conducted the study.

Assessment of radiation hazard indices due to naturally occurring long-life radionuclides in the coastal area of Barra de Valizas, Uruguay

The Uruguayan east coast has several mineral resources, which include black sand ores in the Barra de Valizas-Aguas Dulces area. Cancer in Uruguay shows non-homogeneous geographical distribution, with the highest standardized mortality ratio (SMR) in the northeast and east region, which includes the aforementioned area and the town of Barra de Valizas. The activity concentration of natural radionuclides (226Ra, 232Th and 40 K) in Barra de Valizas´soil was determined by gamma spectrometry in order to evaluate the radiological hazard for inhabitants and tourists. The outdoor annual effective dose (AEDE), excess lifetime cancer risk (ELCR), and annual gonadal dose equivalent (AGDE) were evaluated for inhabitants with a life expectancy of 77.7 years, a 0.2 and 0.5 occupancy factor, and using the conversion coefficients recommended by United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR). The annual effective dose was also evaluated for both summer and fortnight tourists. The radiological hazard indices for Barra de Valizas inhabitants are higher than the worldwide mean and recommended values. This may contribute to Rocha's higher SRM value, although a direct correlation cannot be assured with the epidemiological information currently available. Social, medical and anthropological studies will be carried out in future to provide data and verify this correlation.

Individual doses for super cohort members exposed to atmospheric radioiodine from the Mayak releases with an emphasis on prenatal doses

Time-dependent thyroid doses were reconstructed for 45,837 members of the Southern Urals Population Exposed to Radiation Cohort (SUPER-C) living in the region around the Mayak Production Association facilities in Russia from ¹³¹I released to the atmosphere from all relevant exposure pathways. The dose calculations are implemented in a Monte Carlo framework that produces best estimates and stochastic realizations of dose time-histories. The arithmetic mean thyroid dose from ¹³¹I for SUPER-C members was 195 mGy; the median was 61 mGy. Overall, ¹³¹I-thyroid doses for about 3.6% of SUPER-C members were larger than 1 Gy. For children born in 1940-1950, the dose was about 10% higher than in previous studies because doses during the prenatal period for 9,117 individuals are included in the current work. Half of the individuals born in the region in 1950-1960 who remained in the study domain through 1972 received 9.4% or more of their total dose during the prenatal period. SUPER-C members residing in areas contaminated by discharges of liquid radioactive releases into the Techa River or the Kyshtym Accident in 1957 received 80% of their thyroid dose from airborne ¹³¹I emissions.

Effects of chronic low-dose radiation on cataract prevalence and characterization in wild boar (Sus scrofa) from Fukushima, Japan

This study evaluated cataracts in wild boar exposed to chronic low-dose radiation. We examined wild boar from within and outside the Fukushima Exclusion Zone for nuclear, cortical, and posterior subcapsular (PSC) cataracts in vivo and photographically. Plausible upper-bound, lifetime radiation dose for each boar was estimated from radioactivity levels in each animal's home range combined with tissue concentrations of 134+137Cesium. Fifteen exposed and twenty control boar were evaluated. There were no significant differences in overall prevalence or score for cortical or PSC cataracts between exposed and control animals. Nuclear (centrally located) cataracts were significantly more prevalent in exposed boar (p < 0.05) and had statistically higher median scores. Plausible upper-bound, lifetime radiation dose ranged from 1 to 1,600 mGy in exposed animals, with no correlation between dose and cortical or PSC score. While radiation dose and nuclear score were positively associated, the impact of age could not be completely separated from the relationship. Additionally, the clinical significance of even the highest scoring nuclear cataract was negligible. Based on the population sampled, wild boar in the Fukushima Exclusion Zone do not have a significantly higher prevalence or risk of cortical or PSC cataracts compared to control animals.

Studies of radiation health effects inform EPA actions

In 1970, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) was given the responsibility to provide guidance to other federal agencies in the formulation of radiation protection standards. To carry out its federal guidance responsibilities and protect human health, the EPA must estimate risk at low doses to limit the risk of radiogenic cancers from environmental exposures. These risk estimates are based on models which conform to the linear no threshold (LNT) hypothesis. A cancer risk model conforms to the LNT hypothesis if the excess risk of cancer at low doses increases approximately proportional to dose, with no threshold. Risk models with a linear-quadratic dose response can satisfy the LNT hypothesis. Based on careful review of evidence from epidemiological and radiobiological studies, authoritative scientific bodies have repeatedly endorsed the use of LNT models for estimating and regulating risk and concluded that despite uncertainties at low dose and dose rates, the LNT model remains the most practical and implementable model for radiation protection. This article describes the rationale underlying the use of LNT models for calculating risk for low dose and dose rate exposures and discusses some of the epidemiological evidence which inform on its continued use.

Calculations of individual doses for Techa River Cohort members exposed to atmospheric radioiodine from Mayak releases

Time-dependent thyroid doses were reconstructed for over 29,000 Techa River Cohort members living near the Mayak production facilities from ¹³¹I released to the atmosphere for all relevant exposure pathways. The calculational approach uses four general steps: 1) construct estimates of releases of ¹³¹I to the air from production facilities; 2) model the transport of ¹³¹I in the air and subsequent deposition on the ground and vegetation; 3) model the accumulation of ¹³¹I in environmental media; and 4) calculate individualized doses. The dose calculations are implemented in a Monte Carlo framework that produces best estimates and confidence intervals of dose time-histories. Other radionuclide contributors to thyroid dose were evaluated. The ¹³¹I contribution was 75-99% of the thyroid dose. The mean total thyroid dose for cohort members was 193 mGy and the median was 53 mGy. Thyroid doses for about 3% of cohort members were larger than 1 Gy. About 7% of children born in 1940-1950 had doses larger than 1 Gy. The uncertainty in the ¹³¹I dose estimates is low enough for this approach to be used in regional epidemiological studies.

Cancer Incidence after In Utero Exposure to Ionizing Radiation in Techa River Residents

Health effects of in utero exposure to ionizing radiation, especially among adults, are still unclear. The aim of this study was to analyze cancer risk in a cohort of subjects exposed in utero due to releases of nuclear waste into the Techa River in the Southern Urals, taking into account additional postnatal exposure. Analysis for solid cancer was based on 242 cases among 10,482 cohort members, accumulating 381,948 person-years at risk, with follow-up from 1956-2009, while analysis for hematological malignancies was based on 26 cases among 11,070 persons, with 423,502 person-years at risk, with follow-up from 1953-2009. Mean doses accumulated in soft tissues and in red bone marrow during the prenatal period were 4 mGy and 30 mGy, respectively. Additional respective mean postnatal doses received by cohort members were 11 and 84 mGy. Poisson regression analysis was used to estimate the excess relative risk (ERR) of cancer incidence related to in utero and postnatal doses. No association was observed for in utero exposure with solid cancer risk [ERR per 10 mGy: -0.007; 95% confidence interval (CI): <-0.107; 0.148] or with hematological malignancy risk (ERR/10 mGy: -0.011; 95% CI: <-0.015; 0.099). However, ERR of solid cancer increased significantly with increasing postnatal dose (ERR/10 mGy: 0.11; 95% CI: 0.04; 0.22). The very wide confidence intervals in these ERR results are similar to those of studies performed on the LSS cohort and the offspring of the Mayak Female Worker Cohort, as well as case-control studies of effects after in utero medical exposure. There were limitations of this study, with decreased statistical power, due to the low prenatal doses received by most of the cohort members, the small number of cancer cases and the absence of cohort members over the age of 59 years (living cohort members had reached 49-59 years of age). Further aging of the cohort and extension of the follow-up period will enhance the statistical power of this study in the future. There is a shortage of cohort studies reporting on the effects of prenatal radiation exposure, as well as information on chronic exposure during the prenatal period. Therefore, further research of this unique cohort will be a useful addition to the published literature on this subject, and a valuable means of elucidating the long-term effects of low-dose radiation exposure in the fetus.

Incidence and Mortality of Solid Cancers in People Exposed In Utero to Ionizing Radiation: Pooled Analyses of Two Cohorts from the Southern Urals, Russia

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have shown that acute external in utero exposure to ionizing radiation can increase cancer risk. It is not known whether chronic exposure at low dose rates, including due to radionuclide intake, influences the lifetime risk of solid cancers in the offspring. The objective of this study was to investigate solid cancer risk after in utero irradiation.

METHODS

Cancer incidence and mortality over a 60-year period (from January 1950 to December 2009) were analyzed in the Urals Prenatally Exposed Cohort (UPEC). The cohort comprised in utero exposed offspring of Mayak Production Association female workers and of female residents of Techa River villages. Some of the offspring also received postnatal exposure, either due to becoming radiation workers themselves or due to continuing to live in the contaminated areas of the Techa River. The mortality analyses comprised 16,821 subjects (601,372 person-years), and the incidence analyses comprised 15,813 subjects (554,411 person-years). Poisson regression was used to quantify the relative risk as a function of the in utero soft tissue dose (with cumulative doses up to 944.9 mGy, mean dose of 14.1 mGy in the pooled cohort) and the postnatal stomach dose for solid cancer incidence and mortality.

RESULTS

When a log-linear model was used, relative risk of cancer per 10 mGy of in utero dose was 0.99 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.96 to 1.01) based on incidence data and 0.98 (CI = 0.94 to 1.01) based on mortality data. Postnatal exposure to ionizing radiation was positively associated with the solid cancer risk in members of the UPEC, with a relative risk of 1.02 per 10mGy CI = 1.00 to 1.04).

CONCLUSIONS

No strong evidence was found that chronic low-dose-rate exposure of the embryo and fetus increased the risk of solid cancers in childhood or in adulthood. For both incidence and mortality, a tendency towards a decreased relative risk was noted with increasing doses to soft tissues of the fetus. Further follow-up will provide more precise radiation risk estimates of solid cancer as cohort members are approaching their 60s and cancer becomes more common.

Modeling analysis of the lymphocytopoiesis dynamics in chronically irradiated residents of Techa riverside villages

A biologically motivated dynamical model of the lymphocytopoietic system in irradiated humans is applied here to analyze the data obtained under hematological examinations of residents of Techa riverside villages. Those people were exposed to chronic irradiation with varying dose rates, due to the radioactive contamination of the river basin by the Mayak Production Association. Modeling studies revealed the relationship between the dynamics of the lymphocytopoietic system in the examined individuals and the variation of dose rate over the considered period of time. It is found that the developed model is capable of reproducing the decreased level of blood lymphocyte concentration observed during the period of maximum radiation exposure, the recovery processes in the system observed during the period of decreasing dose rate, as well as the enhanced mitotic activity of bone marrow precursor cells in this hematopoietic lineage observed during the entire period under consideration. Mechanisms of these effects of chronic irradiation on the human lymphocytopoietic system are elucidated based on the applied model. The results obtained demonstrate the efficiency of the developed model in the analysis, investigation, and prediction of effects of chronic irradiation with varying dose rate on the human lymphocytopoietic system. In particular, the developed model can be used for predicting any radiation injury of this vital system in people exposed to chronic irradiation due to environmental radiological events, such as anthropogenic radiation accidents or radiological terroristic attacks.

Analysis of hematopoiesis dynamics in residents of Techa riverside villages chronically exposed to nonuniform radiation: modeling approach

A profound approach to the analysis of clinical data on the dynamics of major hematopoietic lineages (granulocytopoietic, thrombocytopoietic, and erythrocytopoietic systems) in chronically irradiated humans is proposed. It is based on recently developed mathematical models of these systems in humans, which enable one to study and interpret clinical hematological data. The developed approach is applied to the analysis of statistically processed clinical data, which were obtained under hematological examinations of residents of Techa riverside villages. These people were exposed to chronic irradiation with varying dose rate due to the radioactive contamination of the river basin by the Mayak Production Association. In the course of modeling studies, the relationship between the dynamics of aforementioned systems in examined individuals and the variation of chronic exposure dose rate over the considered period of time is revealed. It is found that the models are capable of reproducing common regularities and peculiarities of the dynamics of systems on hand, including the decreased stationary levels of blood cell concentrations during the period of maximum radiation exposure, the recovery processes during the period of decrease of exposure dose rate, and the prevalence of younger bone marrow granulocytopoietic cells over more mature ones during the entire period. The mechanisms of such effects of chronic irradiation on the hematopoietic lineages are revealed on the basis of modeling studies. All this testifies to the efficiency of employment of the developed models in the analysis, investigation, and prediction of effects of chronic irradiation on human hematopoietic system.

Concentrations of 90Sr in the tooth tissues 60 years after intake: results of TL measurements and applications for Techa River dosimetry

This article focuses on the study of (90)Sr in the tooth tissues of Techa riverside residents 60 years after intake. The Techa River was contaminated by radioactive wastes in the 1950s. Contamination of the river system, including water, bottom sediment, floodplain soil, and grass, depended on the distance from the source of releases. Therefore, the average (90)Sr intake was different in different settlements located downstream the river. An additional factor influencing (90)Sr accumulation in the teeth is the rate of tissue mineralization at the time of intake which depended on the donor's age at the time of releases. Measurements of (90)Sr concentration in various dental tissues (enamel, crown, and root dentin) of 166 teeth were performed about 60 years after the main intake using the method of thermoluminescence passive beta detection. The paper presents the current levels of tooth tissue contamination, and the tooth-to-tooth variability of (90)Sr concentration in tooth tissues was assessed for the tissues which were matured at the time of massive liquid radioactive waste releases into the Techa River. A model describing the expected levels of (90)Sr in matured dental tissues depending on age and intake has been elaborated for the population under study. The results obtained will be used for calculation of internal dose in enamel and for interpretation of tooth doses measured by means of the electron paramagnetic resonance method, among the population of the Techa River region.

Implications of radiation dose and exposed populations on radiation protection in the 21st century

Radiation is in the public eye because of Fukushima, computed tomography examinations, airport screenings, and possible terrorist attacks. What if the Boston Marathon pressure cooker had also contained a radioactive source? Nuclear power may be on the resurgence. Because of the increasing uses of radiation, the increases in population exposures, and the increasing knowledge of radiation effects, constant vigilance is needed to keep up with the changing times. Psychosocial disorders associated with the inappropriate (but real) fear of radiation need to be recognized as radiation detriments. Radiation risk communication, radiation education, and communication must improve at all levels: to members of the public, to the media, to other scientists, and to radiation professionals. Stakeholders must continue to be involved in all radiation protection initiatives. Finally, we are at a crisis as the number of war babies (me) and baby boomers (you?) who are also radiation professionals continues its rapid decline, and there are few in the pipeline to fill the current and looming substantial need: "The old road is rapidly agin'" (Dylan). NCRP has begun the WARP initiative-Where Are the Radiation Professionals?-an attempt to rejuvenate the pipeline of future professionals before the trickle becomes tiny drops. A Workshop was held in July 2013 with government agencies, military, private sector, universities, White House representatives, and societies to develop a coordinated and national action plan. A "Manhattan Project" is needed to get us "Back to the Future" in terms of the funding levels that existed in years past that provided the necessary resources to train, engage, and retain (a.k.a., jobs) the radiation professionals needed for the nation. If we don't keep swimmin' (Disney's Nemo) we'll "sink like a stone" (Dylan).Introduction of Implications of Radiation Dose and Exposed Populations (Video 2:06, http://links.lww.com/HP/A25).

Leukaemia incidence in the Techa River Cohort: 1953-2007

BACKGROUND

Little is known about leukaemia risk following chronic radiation exposures at low dose rates. The Techa River Cohort of individuals residing in riverside villages between 1950 and 1961 when releases from the Mayak plutonium production complex contaminated the river allows quantification of leukaemia risks associated with chronic low-dose-rate internal and external exposures.

METHODS

Excess relative risk models described the dose-response relationship between radiation dose on the basis of updated dose estimates and the incidence of haematological malignancies ascertained between 1953 and 2007 among 28 223 cohort members, adjusted for attained age, sex, and other factors.

RESULTS

Almost half of the 72 leukaemia cases (excluding chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL)) were estimated to be associated with radiation exposure. These data are consistent with a linear dose response with no evidence of modification. The excess relative risk estimate was 0.22 per 100 mGy. There was no evidence of significant dose effect for CLL or other haematopoietic malignancies.

CONCLUSION

These analyses demonstrate that radiation exposures, similar to those received by populations exposed as a consequence of nuclear accidents, are associated with long-term dose-related increases in leukaemia risks. Using updated dose estimates, the leukaemia risk per unit dose is about half of that based on previous dosimetry.

Chronic low-dose exposure in the Techa River Cohort: risk of mortality from circulatory diseases

The aim of the present study was to analyze the mortality from circulatory diseases for about 30,000 members of the Techa River cohort over the period 1950-2003, and to investigate how these rates depend on radiation doses. This population received both external and internal exposures from (90)Sr, (89)Sr, (137)Cs, and other uranium fission products as a result of waterborne releases from the Mayak nuclear facility in the Southern Urals region of the Russian Federation. The analysis included individualized estimates of the total (external plus internal) absorbed dose in muscle calculated based on the Techa River Dosimetry System 2009. The cohort-average dose to muscle tissue was 35 mGy, and the maximum dose was 510 mGy. Between 1950 and 2003, 7,595 deaths from circulatory diseases were registered among cohort members with 901,563 person years at risk. Mortality rates in the cohort were analyzed using a simple parametric excess relative risk (ERR) model. For all circulatory diseases, the estimated excess relative risk per 100 mGy with a 15-year lag period was 3.6 % with a 95 % confidence interval of 0.2-7.5 %, and for ischemic heart disease it was 5.6 % with a 95 % confidence interval of 0.1-11.9 %. A linear ERR model provided the best fit. Analyses with a lag period shorter than 15 years from the beginning of exposure did not reveal any significant risk of mortality from either all circulatory diseases or ischemic heart disease. There was no evidence of an increased mortality risk from cerebrovascular disease (p > 0.5). These results should be regarded as preliminary, since they will be updated after adjustment for smoking and alcohol consumption.

Solid cancer mortality in the techa river cohort (1950-2007)

Our understanding of cancer risk from ionizing radiation is largely based on studies of populations exposed at high dose and high dose rates. Less certain is the magnitude of cancer risk from protracted, low-dose and low-dose-rate radiation exposure. We estimated the dose-response relationship for solid cancer mortality in a cohort of 29,730 individuals who lived along the Techa River between 1950 and 1960. This population was exposed to both external γ radiation and internal (90)Sr, (137)Cs and other radionuclides after the release of radioactive waste into the river by the Mayak Radiochemical Plant. The analysis utilized the latest individualized doses from the Techa River Dosimetry System (TRDS) 2009. We estimated excess relative risks (ERRs) per Gy for solid cancer mortality using Poisson regression methods with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and P values based on likelihood ratio tests. Between 1950 and 2007, there were 2,303 solid cancer deaths. The linear ERR/Gy = 0.61 (95%; CI 0.04-1.27), P = 0.03. It is estimated that approximately 2% (49.7) of solid cancers deaths were associated with the radiation exposure. Our results, based on 2,303 solid cancer deaths and more than 50 years of follow-up, support an increased risk of solid cancer mortality following protracted radiation exposure from the Techa River contamination. The wide confidence interval of our estimate reflects the challenges of quantifying and describing the shape of the dose-response relationship in the low dose range. Nevertheless, the risk estimates provide important information concerning health risks from whole-body radiation exposure that can occur from accidents that result in wide-scale environmental contamination.

ICRP publication 118: ICRP statement on tissue reactions and early and late effects of radiation in normal tissues and organs--threshold doses for tissue reactions in a radiation protection context

This report provides a review of early and late effects of radiation in normal tissues and organs with respect to radiation protection. It was instigated following a recommendation in Publication 103 (ICRP, 2007), and it provides updated estimates of 'practical' threshold doses for tissue injury defined at the level of 1% incidence. Estimates are given for morbidity and mortality endpoints in all organ systems following acute, fractionated, or chronic exposure. The organ systems comprise the haematopoietic, immune, reproductive, circulatory, respiratory, musculoskeletal, endocrine, and nervous systems; the digestive and urinary tracts; the skin; and the eye. Particular attention is paid to circulatory disease and cataracts because of recent evidence of higher incidences of injury than expected after lower doses; hence, threshold doses appear to be lower than previously considered. This is largely because of the increasing incidences with increasing times after exposure. In the context of protection, it is the threshold doses for very long follow-up times that are the most relevant for workers and the public; for example, the atomic bomb survivors with 40-50years of follow-up. Radiotherapy data generally apply for shorter follow-up times because of competing causes of death in cancer patients, and hence the risks of radiation-induced circulatory disease at those earlier times are lower. A variety of biological response modifiers have been used to help reduce late reactions in many tissues. These include antioxidants, radical scavengers, inhibitors of apoptosis, anti-inflammatory drugs, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, growth factors, and cytokines. In many cases, these give dose modification factors of 1.1-1.2, and in a few cases 1.5-2, indicating the potential for increasing threshold doses in known exposure cases. In contrast, there are agents that enhance radiation responses, notably other cytotoxic agents such as antimetabolites, alkylating agents, anti-angiogenic drugs, and antibiotics, as well as genetic and comorbidity factors. Most tissues show a sparing effect of dose fractionation, so that total doses for a given endpoint are higher if the dose is fractionated rather than when given as a single dose. However, for reactions manifesting very late after low total doses, particularly for cataracts and circulatory disease, it appears that the rate of dose delivery does not modify the low incidence. This implies that the injury in these cases and at these low dose levels is caused by single-hit irreparable-type events. For these two tissues, a threshold dose of 0.5Gy is proposed herein for practical purposes, irrespective of the rate of dose delivery, and future studies may elucidate this judgement further.

Modeling hematopoietic system response caused by chronic exposure to ionizing radiation

A new model of the hematopoietic system response in humans chronically exposed to ionizing radiation describes the dynamics of the hematopoietic stem cell compartment as well as the dynamics of each of the four blood cell types (lymphocytes, neutrophiles, erythrocytes, and platelets). The required model parameters were estimated based on available results of human and experimental animal studies. They include the steady-state number of hematopoietic stem cells and peripheral blood cell lines in an unexposed organism, amplification parameters for each blood line, parameters describing proliferation and apoptosis, parameters of feedback functions regulating the steady-state numbers, and characteristics of radiosensitivity related to cell death and non-lethal cell damage. The model predictions were tested using data on hematological measurements (e.g., blood counts) performed in 1950-1956 in the Techa River residents chronically exposed to ionizing radiation since 1949. The suggested model of hematopoiesis is capable of describing experimental findings in the Techa River Cohort, including: (1) slopes of the dose-effect curves reflecting the inhibition of hematopoiesis due to chronic ionizing radiation, (2) delay in effect of chronic exposure and accumulated character of the effect, and (3) dose-rate patterns for different cytopenic states (e.g., leukopenia, thrombocytopenia).

How much can we say about site-specific cancer radiation risks?

Studies of Mayak workers and people who lived along the Techa River have demonstrated significant associations between low-dose-rate radiation exposure and increased solid cancer risk. It is of interest to use the long-term follow-up data from these cohorts to describe radiation effects for specific types of cancer; however, statistical variability in the site-specific risk estimates is large. The goal of this work is to describe this variability and provide Bayesian adjusted risk estimates. We assume that the site-specific estimates can be viewed as a sample from some underlying distribution and use Bayesian methods to produce adjusted excess relative risk per gray estimates in the Mayak and Techa River cohorts. The impact of the adjustment is compared to that seen in similar analyses in the atomic bomb survivors. Site-specific risk estimates in the Mayak and Techa River cohorts have large uncertainties. Unadjusted estimates vary from implausibly large decreases to large increases, with a range that greatly exceeds that found in the A-bomb survivors. The Bayesian adjustment markedly reduced the range of the site-specific estimates for the Techa River and Mayak studies. The extreme variability in the site-specific risk estimates is largely a consequence of the small number of excess cases. The adjusted estimates provide a useful perspective on variation in the actual risks. However, additional work on interpretation of the adjusted estimates, extension of the methods used in describing effect modification, and making more use of prior knowledge is needed to make these methods useful.

Early hematopoietic effects of chronic radiation exposure in humans

The major goal of this study is to investigate and quantitatively describe the nature of the relationship between the characteristics of chronic exposure to ionizing radiation and specific patterns of hematopoiesis reduction. The study is based on about 3,200 hemograms taken for inhabitants of the Techa riverside villages over the years 1951-1956, i.e., the period characterized by a gradual decrease in dose rates. The mean cumulative red bone marrow dose was 333.6 + or - 4.6 mGy. The approach to statistical analyses involved both empirical methods and modeling (generalized linear models and logistic regressions). The results of the analyses highlighted a gradual increase in the frequency of cytopenias with dose rate. The impact of exposure on hematopoiesis reduction patterns was found to be more substantial than that of age and health status. Dose rates resulting in a two-fold increase in the frequency of cytopenias have been estimated.

Comparison of mortality and incidence solid cancer risk after radiation exposure in the Techa River Cohort

In the present paper, analysis of solid cancer mortality and incidence risk after radiation exposure in the Techa River Cohort in the Southern Urals region of Russia is described. Residents along the Techa River received protracted exposure to ionizing radiation in the 1950s due to the releases of radioactive materials from the Mayak Production Association. The current follow-up through December 2003 includes individuals exposed on the Techa riverside within the Chelyabinsk and Kurgan oblasts using mortality data, and within the Chelyabinsk oblast using incidence data. The analysis was performed by means of the biologically based two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) model and conventional excess relative risk models. For the mortality and incidence cohorts, central estimates of the excess relative risk per dose of 0.85 Gy(-1) (95% CI 0.36; 1.38) and 0.91 Gy(-1) (95% CI 0.35; 1.52) were found, respectively. For both the mortality and incidence cohorts, the best description of the radiation risk was achieved with the same TSCE model including a lifelong radiation effect on the promotion rate of initiated cells. An increase in the excess risk with attained age was observed, whereas no significant change of risk with age at exposure was seen. Direct comparison of the mortality and incidence cohorts showed that the excess relative risk estimates agreed very well in both cohorts, as did the excess absolute risk and the hazard after correction for the different background rates.

Late effects in hemopoiesis and bone tissue among people with incorporated osteotropic isotope 90Sr

The present paper focuses on the analysis of data resulting from 50-y studies involving assessment of the hemopoiesis state in Techa riverside residents chronically exposed to radiation and evaluation of the bone tissue status for people with Sr incorporation at late time after the intakes.

CONCLUSIONS

1. In the late period after the start of chronic radiation exposure (50 y later) only a few individuals with red bone marrow doses reaching about 1.8 Gy (mean dose of 0.66 Gy) had a marked peripheral blood leucopenia, and the incidence of neutropenia, lymphopenia and thrombocypenia in the exposed group did not exceed that noted in the control group. The results of our observations indicate the spontaneous recovery of the hemopoietic system of residents of the Techa riverside villages. Thus, the adaptation mechanisms of hemopoiesis to the long-term chronic exposure in the range of low to intermediate doses are sufficiently effective; 2. About half of the people with Sr incorporation and the control group have changes in bone tissue expressed by different stages of osteoporosis. Age is a determinative factor of bone tissue involution in women while some tendency of Sr influence on the intensity of osteoporosis is revealed in the male group.

Early hematopoiesis inhibition under chronic radiation exposure in humans

The major goal of this study was to identify and quantitatively describe the association between the characteristics of chronic (low-dose rate) exposure to (low LET) ionizing radiation and cellularity of peripheral blood cell lines. About 3,200 hemograms (i.e., spectra of blood counts) obtained over the years of maximal exposure to ionizing radiation (1950-1956) for inhabitants of the Techa River were used in analyses. The mean cumulative red bone marrow dose (with standard errors), calculated using Techa River Dosimetry System-2000, was 333.6 +/- 4.6 mGy (SD = 259.9 mGy, max = 1151 mGy) to the year 1956. The statistical approach included both empirical methods for estimating frequencies of cytopenic states of the investigated blood cell lines (e.g. neutrophile, platelets, erythrocyte, etc.), and regression methods, including generalized linear models and logistic regressions which allowed taking into account confounding factors (e.g., attained age, age at maximal exposure, presence of concomitant diseases, and demographic characteristics). The results of the analyses demonstrated hematopoiesis inhibition manifested by a decrease in peripheral blood cellularity and an increase in the frequency of cytopenia in all blood cell lines (leukocytes, including lymphocytes, monocytes, neutrophiles, as well as platelets and erythrocytes). The intensity of hematopoiesis inhibition in the period of maximal exposures is determined by the combined influence of the dose rate and cumulative dose. The contribution of specific confounding factors was quantified and shown to be much less important than dose characteristics. The best predictor among dose characteristics was identified for each blood cell line. A 2-fold increase in dose rate is assumed to be a characteristic of radiosensitivity and a quantitative characteristic of the effect.

Leukemia incidence among people exposed to chronic radiation from the contaminated Techa River, 1953-2005

Beginning in 1950, people living on the banks of the Techa River received chronic low-dose-rate internal and external radiation exposures as a result of releases from the Mayak nuclear weapons plutonium production facility in the Southern Urals region of the Russian Federation. The Techa River cohort includes about 30,000 people who resided in riverside villages sometime between 1950 and 1960. Cumulative red bone marrow doses range up to 2 Gy with a mean of 0.3 Gy and a median of 0.2 Gy. Between 1953 and 2005, 93 first primary cases of leukemia, including 23 cases of chronic lymphatic leukemia (CLL), were ascertained among the cohort members. A significant linear dose-response relationship was seen for leukemias other than CLL (P < 0.001), but not for CLL. The estimated excess relative risk per Gy is 4.9 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.6; 14.3) for leukemias other than CLL and less than 0 (95% upper bound 1.4) for CLL.

Breast cancer incidence following low-dose rate environmental exposure: Techa River Cohort, 1956-2004

In the 1950s, the Mayak nuclear weapons facility in Russia discharged liquid radioactive wastes into the Techa River causing exposure of riverside residents to protracted low-to-moderate doses of radiation. Almost 10,000 women received estimated doses to the stomach of up to 0.47 Gray (Gy) (mean dose=0.04 Gy) from external gamma-exposure and (137)Cs incorporation. We have been following this population for cancer incidence and mortality and as in the general Russian population, we found a significant temporal trend of breast cancer incidence. A significant linear radiation dose-response relationship was observed (P=0.01) with an estimated excess relative risk per Gray (ERR/Gy) of 5.00 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.80, 12.76). We estimated that approximately 12% of the 109 observed cases could be attributed to radiation.

Analysis of solid cancer mortality in the techa river cohort using the two-step clonal expansion model

In this study the solid cancer mortality data in the Techa River Cohort in the Southern Urals region of Russia was analyzed. The cohort received protracted exposure in the 1950s due to the releases of radioactive materials from the Mayak plutonium complex. The Extended Techa River Cohort includes 29,849 people who resided along the Techa River between 1950 and 1960 and were followed from January 1, 1950 through December 31, 1999. The analysis was done within the framework of the biologically based two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) model. It was found that about 2.6% of the 1854 solid cancer deaths (excluding 18 bone cancer cases) could be related to radiation exposure. At age 63, which is the mean age for solid cancer deaths, the excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) were found to be 0.76 Gy(-1) (95% CI 0.23; 1.29) and 33.0 (10(4) PY Gy)(-1) (95% CI 9.8; 52.6), respectively. These risk estimates are consistent with earlier excess relative risk analyses for the same cohort. The change in the ERR with age was investigated in detail, and an increase in risk with attained age was observed. Furthermore, the data were tested for possible signs of genomic instability, and it was found that the data could be described equally well by a model incorporating effects of genomic instability. Results from the TSCE models indicated that radiation received at older ages might have stronger biological effects than exposure at younger ages.

Solid cancer incidence and low-dose-rate radiation exposures in the Techa River cohort: 1956 2002

BACKGROUND

This is the first analysis of solid cancer incidence in the Techa River cohort, a general population of men and women of all ages who received chronic low-dose rate exposures from environmental radiation releases associated with the Soviet nuclear weapons programme. This cohort provides one of the few opportunities to evaluate long-term human health risks from low-dose radiation exposures.

METHODS

Cancer incidence rates in this cohort were analysed using excess relative risk (ERR) models. The analyses make use of individualized dose estimates that take into account residence history, age and other factors. Cases are identified on the basis of continuing, active follow-up of mortality and cancer incidence.

RESULTS

Based on 1836 solid cancer cases with 446 588 person years accrued over 47 years of follow-up, solid cancer incidence rates were found to increase with dose and about 3% of the cases were attributable to radiation exposure. The ERR was 1.0/Gy (P = 0.004 95% CI (0.3; 1.9) in a linear dose-response model. There was no significant non-linearity in the dose response and no indication of effect modification by gender, ethnicity, attained age or age at first exposure.

CONCLUSIONS

The Techa River cohort provides strong evidence that low-dose, low-dose rate exposures lead to significant increases in solid cancer risks that appear to be linear in dose. The results do not suggest that risks associated with low-dose rate exposures are less than those seen following acute exposures such as were received by atomic bomb survivors.

Minisatellite germline mutation rate in the Techa River population

Germline mutation at eight minisatellite loci has been studied among the irradiated families from the Techa River population and non-exposed families from the rural area of the Chelyabinsk and Kurgan Oblasts. The groups were matched by ethnicity, parental age, occupation and smoking habit. A statistically significant 1.7-fold increase in mutation rate was found in the germline of irradiated fathers, whereas maternal germline mutation rate in the exposed families was not elevated. Most of the minisatellite loci showed an elevated paternal mutation rate in the exposed group, indicating a generalised increase in minisatellite germline mutation rate in the Techa River population. These data suggest that the elevated minisatellite mutation rate can be attributed to radioactive exposure. The spectra of paternal mutation seen in the unexposed and exposed families were indistinguishable.

Development of an Improved Dose Reconstruction System for the Techa River Population Affected by the Operation of the Mayak Production Association

The Techa River Dosimetry System (TRDS) has been developed to provide estimates of dose received by approximately 30,000 members of the Extended Techa River Cohort (ETRC). Members of the ETRC were exposed beginning in 1949 to significant levels of external and internal (mainly from (90)Sr) dose but at low to moderate dose rates. Members of this cohort are being studied in an effort to test the hypothesis that exposure at low to moderate dose rates has the same ability to produce stochastic health effects as exposure at high dose rates. The current version of the TRDS is known as TRDS-2000 and is the subject of this paper. The estimated doses from (90)Sr are supported strongly by approximately 30,000 measurements made with a tooth beta-particle counter, measurements of bones collected at autopsy, and approximately 38,000 measurements made with a special whole-body counter that detects the bremsstrahlung from (90)Y. The median doses to the red bone marrow and the bone surface are 0.21 and 0.37 Gy, respectively. The maximum doses to the red bone marrow and bone surface are 2.0 and 5.2 Gy, respectively. Distributions of dose to other organs are provided and are lower than the values given above. Directions for future work are discussed.

Protracted radiation exposure and cancer mortality in the Techa River Cohort

In the 1950s many thousands of people living in rural villages on the Techa River received protracted internal and external exposures to ionizing radiation from the release of radioactive material from the Mayak plutonium production complex. The Extended Techa River Cohort includes 29,873 people born before 1950 who lived near the river sometime between 1950 and 1960. Vital status and cause of death are known for most cohort members. Individualized dose estimates have been computed using the Techa River Dosimetry System 2000. The analyses provide strong evidence of long-term carcinogenic effects of protracted low-dose-rate exposures; however, the risk estimates must be interpreted with caution because of uncertainties in the dose estimates. We provide preliminary radiation risk estimates for cancer mortality based on 1,842 solid cancer deaths (excluding bone cancer) and 61 deaths from leukemia. The excess relative risk per gray for solid cancer is 0.92 (95% CI 0.2; 1.7), while those for leukemia, including and excluding chronic lymphocytic leukemia, are 4.2 (CI 95% 1.2; 13) and 6.5 (CI 95% 1.8; 24), respectively. It is estimated that about 2.5% of the solid cancer deaths and 63% of the leukemia deaths are associated with the radiation exposure.