Target Trial Emulation to Improve Causal Inference from Observational Data: What, Why, and How?

Drug stewardship in chronic kidney disease to achieve effective and safe medication use

People living with chronic kidney disease (CKD) often experience multimorbidity and require polypharmacy. Kidney dysfunction can also alter the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of medications, which can modify their risks and benefits; the extent of these changes is not well understood for all situations or medications. The principle of drug stewardship is aimed at maximizing medication safety and effectiveness in a population of patients through a variety of processes including medication reconciliation, medication selection, dose adjustment, monitoring for effectiveness and safety, and discontinuation (deprescribing) when no longer necessary. This Review is aimed at serving as a resource for achieving optimal drug stewardship for patients with CKD. We describe special considerations for medication use during pregnancy and lactation, during acute illness and in patients with cancer, as well as guidance for the responsible use of over-the-counter drugs, herbal remedies, supplements and sick-day rules. We also highlight inequities in medication access worldwide and suggest policies to improve access to quality and essential medications for all persons with CKD. Further strategies to promote drug stewardship include patient education and engagement, the use of digital health tools, shared decision-making and collaboration within interdisciplinary teams. Throughout, we position the person with CKD at the centre of all drug stewardship efforts.

Arteriovenous access creation and hazards of hospitalization and death in patients starting hemodialysis

BACKGROUND

Recent evidence suggests an overestimation of the benefits associated with arteriovenous (AV) fistula versus graft in certain populations. We assessed hazards of all-cause and cause-specific hospitalization and death associated with AV access type in patients who started hemodialysis with a catheter in France, overall and by subgroups of age, sex and comorbidities.

METHODS

We performed a target trial emulation including patients who initiated hemodialysis with a catheter from 2010 through 2018 and were followed by the REIN Registry. We identified first-created fistula or graft through the French national health-administrative database. We used joint frailty models to deal with recurrent hospitalizations and potential informative censoring by death, and inverse probability weighting to account for confounding.

RESULTS

From the 18 800 patients included (mean age 68 ± 15 years, 35% women), 5% underwent AV graft creation first. The weighted hazard ratio (wHR) of all-cause hospitalization associated with graft was 1.08 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02 to 1.15], that of vascular access-related hospitalization was 1.43 (95% CI 1.32 to 1.55), and those of cardiovascular- and infection-related hospitalizations were 1.14 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.26) and 1.11 (95% CI 0.97 to 1.28), respectively. Results were consistent for most subgroups, except that the highest hazard of all-cause, cardiovascular- and infection-related hospitalizations with graft was blunted in patients with comorbidities (i.e. diabetes, wHR 1.01, 95% CI 0.93 to 1.10; 1.10, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.26; and 0.94, 95% CI 0.78 to 1.12, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients starting hemodialysis with a catheter, AV graft creation is associated with increased hazard of vascular access-related hospitalizations compared with fistula. This may not be the case for death or other causes of hospitalization.

The Inflation Reduction Act: An Opportunity to Accelerate Confidence in Real-World Evidence in the United States

OBJECTIVES

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), enacted in 2022, brings substantial reforms to the US healthcare system, particularly regarding Medicare. A key aspect includes the introduction of Medicare price negotiation. The objective of this commentary is to explore the implications of the IRA for US pharmaceutical companies, with a specific focus on the role of real-world evidence (RWE) in the context of Medicare reforms.

METHODS

This commentary uses a qualitative analysis of the IRA's provisions related to healthcare and pharmaceutical regulation, focusing on how these reforms change the evidence requirements for pharmaceutical companies. It discusses the methodological aspects of generating and using RWE, including techniques such as target trial emulation and quantitative bias analysis methods to address biases inherent in RWE.

RESULTS

This commentary highlights that the IRA introduces a unique approach to value assessment in the United States by evaluating drug value several years after launch, as opposed to at launch, similar to health technology assessments in other regions. It underscores the central role of RWE in comparing drug effectiveness across diverse clinical scenarios to improve the accuracy of real-world data comparisons. Furthermore, this article identifies key methodologies for managing the inherent biases in RWE, which are crucial for generating credible evidence for IRA price negotiations.

CONCLUSIONS

This article underscores the importance of these methodologies in ensuring credible evidence for IRA price negotiations. It advocates for an integrated approach in evidence generation, positioning RWE as pivotal for informed pricing discussions in the US healthcare landscape.

Methodological biases in observational hospital studies of COVID-19 treatment effectiveness: pitfalls and potential

Introduction

This study aims to discuss and assess the impact of three prevalent methodological biases: competing risks, immortal-time bias, and confounding bias in real-world observational studies evaluating treatment effectiveness. We use a demonstrative observational data example of COVID-19 patients to assess the impact of these biases and propose potential solutions.

Methods

We describe competing risks, immortal-time bias, and time-fixed confounding bias by evaluating treatment effectiveness in hospitalized patients with COVID-19. For our demonstrative analysis, we use observational data from the registry of patients with COVID-19 who were admitted to the Bellvitge University Hospital in Spain from March 2020 to February 2021 and met our predefined inclusion criteria. We compare estimates of a single-dose, time-dependent treatment with the standard of care. We analyze the treatment effectiveness using common statistical approaches, either by ignoring or only partially accounting for the methodological biases. To address these challenges, we emulate a target trial through the clone-censor-weight approach.

Results

Overlooking competing risk bias and employing the naïve Kaplan-Meier estimator led to increased in-hospital death probabilities in patients with COVID-19. Specifically, in the treatment effectiveness analysis, the Kaplan-Meier estimator resulted in an in-hospital mortality of 45.6% for treated patients and 59.0% for untreated patients. In contrast, employing an emulated trial framework with the weighted Aalen-Johansen estimator, we observed that in-hospital death probabilities were reduced to 27.9% in the "X"-treated arm and 40.1% in the non-"X"-treated arm. Immortal-time bias led to an underestimated hazard ratio of treatment.

Conclusion

Overlooking competing risks, immortal-time bias, and confounding bias leads to shifted estimates of treatment effects. Applying the naïve Kaplan-Meier method resulted in the most biased results and overestimated probabilities for the primary outcome in analyses of hospital data from COVID-19 patients. This overestimation could mislead clinical decision-making. Both immortal-time bias and confounding bias must be addressed in assessments of treatment effectiveness. The trial emulation framework offers a potential solution to address all three methodological biases.

Comparative effectiveness of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) for depression in 43,061 older adults with chronic somatic diseases: A Danish target trial emulation study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the comparative effectiveness of commonly used selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) for comorbid depression in older adults with chronic somatic diseases by applying a target-trial-emulation framework.

METHODS

Danish target-trial-emulation study including 43,061 individuals aged ≥65 years (54.1% females, mean age 77.8 years) with a first redeemed prescription for depression with sertraline (n = 6673), escitalopram (n = 7104) or citalopram (n = 29,284) in 2006-2017. Individuals had cancer, cardiovascular diseases (CVD), chronic-obstructive-pulmonary-disease (COPD)/asthma, diabetes, neurodegenerative disorders, or osteoporosis. Outcomes were treatment switching, combination/augmentation, psychiatric hospital contact for depression, and any psychiatric in-patient care. Follow-up was one year and adjusted Cox regression analyses calculated hazard rate ratios (HRR) within each somatic disease.

RESULTS

Across all six disease groups and four outcomes, we found that citalopram use, compared with sertraline, was associated with lower risks in several analyses, with statistically significant results in cancer, CVD, COPD/asthma, and diabetes (e.g., HRRs for psychiatric hospital contacts for depression/any psychiatric in-patient care ranging between 0.47 and 0.61). For escitalopram, compared with sertraline, some analyses indicated poorer outcomes with significantly higher risks for combination/augmentation treatment (HRRs ranging between 1.15 and 1.40).

CONCLUSIONS

Although observational studies are prone to confounding, these findings indicate clinically relevant differences between the SSRIs, with better outcomes in citalopram users and poorer outcomes in escitalopram users than sertraline, urging the need for clinical studies in this vulnerable patient population.

A population-based cohort defined risk of hyperkalemia after initiating SGLT-2 inhibitors, GLP1 receptor agonists or DPP-4 inhibitors to patients with chronic kidney disease and type 2 diabetes

Hyperkalemia is a common adverse event in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and type 2 diabetes and limits the use of guideline-recommended therapies such as renin-angiotensin system inhibitors. Here, we evaluated the comparative effects of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT-2i), glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP-4i) on the risk of hyperkalemia. We conducted a population-based active-comparator, new-user cohort study using claims data from Medicare and two large United States commercial insurance databases (April 2013-April 2022). People with CKD stages 3-4 and type 2 diabetes who newly initiated SGLT-2i vs. DPP-4i (141671 patients), GLP-1RA vs. DPP-4i (159545 patients) and SGLT-2i vs. GLP-1RA (93033 patients) were included. The primary outcome was hyperkalemia diagnosed in inpatient or outpatient settings. Secondary outcomes included hyperkalemia diagnosed in inpatient or emergency department setting, and serum potassium levels of 5.5 mmol/L or more. Pooled hazard ratios and rate differences were estimated after propensity score matching to adjust for over 140 potential confounders. Initiation of SGLT-2i was associated with a lower risk of hyperkalemia compared with DPP-4i (hazard ratio 0.74; 95% confidence interval 0.68-0.80) and contrasted to GLP-1RA (0.92; 0.86-0.99). Compared with DPP-4i, GLP-1RA were also associated with a lower risk of hyperkalemia (0.80; 0.75-0.86). Corresponding absolute rate differences/1000 person-years were -24.8 (95% confidence interval -31.8 to -17.7), -5.0 (-10.9 to 0.8), and -17.7 (-23.4 to -12.1), respectively. Similar findings were observed for the secondary outcomes, among subgroups, and across single agents within the SGLT-2i and GLP-1RA classes. Thus, SGLT-2i and GLP-1RA are associated with a lower risk of hyperkalemia than DPP-4i in patients with CKD and type 2 diabetes, further supporting the use of these drugs in this population.

Comparative Safety and Effectiveness of Warfarin or Rivaroxaban Versus Apixaban in Patients With Advanced CKD and Atrial Fibrillation: Nationwide US Cohort Study

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

Head-to-head data comparing the effectiveness and safety of oral anticoagulants in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) are lacking. We compared the safety and effectiveness of warfarin or rivaroxaban versus apixaban in patients with AF and non-dialysis-dependent CKD stage 4/5.

STUDY DESIGN

Propensity score-matched cohort study.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

2 nationwide US claims databases, Medicare and Optum's deidentified Clinformatics Data Mart Database, were searched for the interval from January 1, 2013, through March 31, 2022, for patients with nonvalvular AF and CKD stage 4/5 who initiated warfarin versus apixaban (matched cohort, n=12,488) and rivaroxaban versus apixaban (matched cohort, n = 5,720).

EXPOSURES

Warfarin, rivaroxaban, or apixaban.

OUTCOMES

Primary outcomes included major bleeding and ischemic stroke. Secondary outcomes included all-cause mortality, major gastrointestinal bleeding, and intracranial bleeding.

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

Cox regression was used to estimate HRs, and 1:1 propensity-score matching was used to adjust for 80 potential confounders.

RESULTS

Compared with apixaban, warfarin initiation was associated with a higher rate of major bleeding (HR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.59-2.15), including major gastrointestinal bleeding (1.86; 1.53-2.25) and intracranial bleeding (2.15; 1.42-3.25). Compared with apixaban, rivaroxaban was also associated with a higher rate of major bleeding (1.69; 1.33-2.15). All-cause mortality was similar for warfarin (1.08; 0.98-1.18) and rivaroxaban (0.94; 0.81-1.10) versus apixaban. Furthermore, no statistically significant differences for ischemic stroke were observed for warfarin (1.14; 0.83-1.57) or rivaroxaban (0.71; 0.40-1.24) versus apixaban, but the CIs were wide. Similar results were observed for warfarin versus apixaban in the positive control cohort of patients with CKD stage 3, consistent with randomized trial findings.

LIMITATIONS

Few ischemic stroke events, potential residual confounding.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with AF and advanced CKD, rivaroxaban and warfarin were associated with higher rates of major bleeding compared with apixaban, suggesting a superior safety profile for apixaban in this high-risk population.

PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY

Different anticoagulants have been shown to reduce the risk of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation, such as warfarin and direct oral anticoagulants like apixaban and rivaroxaban. Unfortunately, the large-scale randomized trials that compared direct anticoagulants versus warfarin excluded patients with advanced chronic kidney disease. Therefore, the comparative safety and effectiveness of warfarin, apixaban, and rivaroxaban are uncertain in this population. In this study, we used administrative claims data from the United States to answer this question. We found that warfarin and rivaroxaban were associated with increased risks of major bleeding compared with apixaban. There were few stroke events, with no major differences among the 3 drugs in the risk of stroke. In conclusion, this study suggests that apixaban has a better safety profile than warfarin and rivaroxaban.

Comparative Safety of Antidepressants in Adults with CKD

BACKGROUND

Depression is prevalent in patients with CKD and is related to poor prognosis. Despite the widespread use of antidepressants in the CKD population, their safety remains unclear.

METHODS

We identified adults with CKD stages G3-5 (eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 not treated with dialysis) and incident depression diagnosis during 2007-2019 from the Stockholm Creatinine Measurements project. Using the target trial emulation framework, we compared the following treatment strategies: (1) initiating versus not initiating antidepressants, (2) initiating mirtazapine versus selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs), and (3) initiating SSRIs with a lower dose versus a standard dose.

RESULTS

Of 7798 eligible individuals, 5743 (74%) initiated antidepressant treatment. Compared with noninitiation, initiation of antidepressants was associated with higher hazards of short-term outcomes, including hip fracture (hazard ratio [HR], 1.23; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.88 to 1.74) and upper gastrointestinal bleeding (HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 0.82 to 2.31), although not statistically significant. Initiation of antidepressants was not associated with long-term outcomes, including all-cause mortality, major adverse cardiovascular event, CKD progression, and suicidal behavior. Compared with SSRIs, initiation of mirtazapine was associated with a lower hazard of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (HR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.29 to 0.96), but a higher hazard of mortality (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.22). Compared with the standard dose, initiation of SSRIs with a lower dose was associated with nonstatistically significantly lower hazards of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.35 to 1.34) and CKD progression (HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.63 to 1.02), but a higher hazard of cardiac arrest (HR, 2.34; 95% CI, 1.02 to 5.40).

CONCLUSIONS

Antidepressant treatment was associated with short-term adverse outcomes but not long-term outcomes in people with CKD and depression.

The long-term benefits of early intensive therapy in chronic diseases-the legacy effect

The 'legacy effect' refers to the long-term benefits of intensive therapy that are observed long after the end of clinical trials and trial interventions in chronic diseases such as diabetes, hyperlipidaemia and hypertension. It emphasizes the importance of intensive treatment to prevent long-term complications and mortality. In chronic kidney disease (CKD), the legacy effect is evident in various studies. Long-term nephroprotection in diabetes is well documented in major studies in the early stages of diabetes, such as Diabetes Control and Complications Trial-Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications (DCCT-EDIC), UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) and Intensified Multifactorial Intervention in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes and Microalbuminuria (STENO-2). These studies highlight the importance of intensive glycaemic control in reducing microvascular complications, including nephropathy, in patients with recently diagnosed type 1 and type 2 diabetes. However, the legacy effect is less evident in patients with long-term, established diabetes. In chronic glomerulonephritis, studies on immunoglobulin A nephropathy showed that early immunosuppressive treatment could have long-term beneficial effects on kidney function in children and adults with CKD. The Frequent Hemodialysis (FH) and the EXerCise Introduction To Enhance Performance in Dialysis (EXCITE) trials indicated that frequent haemodialysis and a personalized walking exercise program could improve clinical outcomes and reduce the long-term risk of death and hospitalization. The legacy effect concept underscores the importance of intensive intervention in chronic diseases, including CKD. This concept has significant implications for public health and warrants in-depth basic and clinical research to be better understood and exploited in clinical practice. However, its limitations should be considered when interpreting long-term observational data collected after a clinical trial. Appropriate study designs are necessary to investigate an unbiased legacy effect.