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Nonlinear spatial and temporal decomposition provides insight for climate change effects on sub-Arctic herbivore populations. Oecologia 2022; 198:889-904. [PMID: 35325288 DOI: 10.1007/s00442-022-05150-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/23/2021] [Accepted: 03/06/2022] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
Abstract
Global temperatures are increasing, affecting timing and availability of vegetation along with relationships between plants and their consumers. We examined the effect of population density, herd body condition in the previous year, elevation, plant productivity and phenology, snow, and winter onset on juvenile body mass in 63 semi-domesticated populations of Rangifer tarandus throughout Norway using spatiotemporal generalized additive models (GAMs) and varying coefficient models (VCMs). Optimal climate windows were calculated at both the regional and national level using a novel nonlinear climate window algorithm optimized for prediction. Spatial and temporal variation in effects of population and environmental predictors were considered using a model including covariates decomposed into spatial, temporal, and residual components. The performance of this decomposed model was compared to spatiotemporal GAMs and VCMs. The decomposed model provided the best fit and lowest prediction errors. A positive effect of herd body condition in the previous year explained most of the deviance in calf body mass, followed by a more complex effect of population density. A negative effect of timing of spring and positive effect of winter onset on juvenile body mass suggested that a snow free season was positive for juvenile body mass growth. Our findings suggest early spring onset and later winter permanent snow cover as reinforcers of early-life conditions which support more robust reindeer populations. Our methodological improvements for climate window analyses and effect size measures for decomposed variables provide important contributions to account for, measure, and interpret nonlinear relationships between climate and animal populations at large scales.
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2
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DeMars CA, Gilbert S, Serrouya R, Kelly AP, Larter NC, Hervieux D, Boutin S. Demographic responses of a threatened, low-density ungulate to annual variation in meteorological and phenological conditions. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0258136. [PMID: 34624030 PMCID: PMC8500449 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0258136] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/17/2021] [Accepted: 09/17/2021] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
As global climate change progresses, wildlife management will benefit from knowledge of demographic responses to climatic variation, particularly for species already endangered by other stressors. In Canada, climate change is expected to increasingly impact populations of threatened woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) and much focus has been placed on how a warming climate has potentially facilitated the northward expansion of apparent competitors and novel predators. Climate change, however, may also exert more direct effects on caribou populations that are not mediated by predation. These effects include meteorological changes that influence resource availability and energy expenditure. Research on other ungulates suggests that climatic variation may have minimal impact on low-density populations such as woodland caribou because per-capita resources may remain sufficient even in “bad” years. We evaluated this prediction using demographic data from 21 populations in western Canada that were monitored for various intervals between 1994 and 2015. We specifically assessed whether juvenile recruitment and adult female survival were correlated with annual variation in meteorological metrics and plant phenology. Against expectations, we found that both vital rates appeared to be influenced by annual climatic variation. Juvenile recruitment was primarily correlated with variation in phenological conditions in the year prior to birth. Adult female survival was more strongly correlated with meteorological conditions and declined during colder, more variable winters. These responses may be influenced by the life history of woodland caribou, which reside in low-productivity refugia where small climatic changes may result in changes to resources that are sufficient to elicit strong demographic effects. Across all models, explained variation in vital rates was low, suggesting that other factors had greater influence on caribou demography. Nonetheless, given the declining trajectories of many woodland caribou populations, our results highlight the increased relevance of recovery actions when adverse climatic conditions are likely to negatively affect caribou demography.
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Affiliation(s)
- Craig A. DeMars
- Caribou Monitoring Unit, Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Institute, Edmonton, AB, Canada
- * E-mail:
| | - Sophie Gilbert
- Department of Fish & Wildlife Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, United States of America
| | - Robert Serrouya
- Caribou Monitoring Unit, Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Institute, Edmonton, AB, Canada
| | - Allicia P. Kelly
- Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Government of Northwest Territories, Fort Smith, NT, Canada
| | - Nicholas C. Larter
- Department of Environment and Natural Resources (retired), Government of Northwest Territories, Fort Simpson, NT, Canada
| | - Dave Hervieux
- Alberta Environment and Parks, Grande Prairie, AB, Canada
| | - Stan Boutin
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada
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3
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Contrasting dynamical responses of sympatric caribou and muskoxen to winter weather and earlier spring green-up in the Arctic. FOOD WEBS 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.fooweb.2021.e00196] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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4
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Desforges JP, Marques GM, Beumer LT, Chimienti M, Hansen LH, Pedersen SH, Schmidt NM, van Beest FM. Environment and physiology shape Arctic ungulate population dynamics. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2021; 27:1755-1771. [PMID: 33319455 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15484] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/18/2020] [Accepted: 12/08/2020] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Species conservation in a rapidly changing world requires an improved understanding of how individuals and populations respond to changes in their environment across temporal scales. Increased warming in the Arctic puts this region at particular risk for rapid environmental change, with potentially devastating impacts on resident populations. Here, we make use of a parameterized full life cycle, individual-based energy budget model for wild muskoxen, coupling year-round environmental data with detailed ontogenic metabolic physiology. We show how winter food accessibility, summer food availability, and density dependence drive seasonal dynamics of energy storage and thus life history and population dynamics. Winter forage accessibility defined by snow depth, more than summer forage availability, was the primary determinant of muskox population dynamics through impacts on calf recruitment and longer term carryover effects of maternal investment. Simulations of various seasonal snow depth and plant biomass and quality profiles revealed that timing of and improved/limited winter forage accessibility had marked influence on calf recruitment (±10-80%). Impacts on recruitment were the cumulative result of condition-driven reproductive performance at multiple time points across the reproductive period (ovulation to calf weaning) as a trade-off between survival and reproduction. Seasonal and generational condition effects of snow-rich winters interacted with age structure and density to cause pronounced long-term consequences on population growth and structure, with predicted population recovery times from even moderate disturbances of 10 years or more. Our results show how alteration in winter forage accessibility, mediated by snow depth, impacts the dynamics of northern herbivore populations. Further, we present here a mechanistic and state-based model framework to assess future scenarios of environmental change, such as increased or decreased snowfall or plant biomass and quality to impact winter and summer forage availability across the Arctic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jean-Pierre Desforges
- Bioscience Department, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark
- Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
- Department of Natural Resource Sciences, McGill University, Ste-Anne-de-Bellevue, QC, Canada
| | - Gonçalo M Marques
- Marine, Environment & Technology Center (MARETEC, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Larissa T Beumer
- Bioscience Department, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark
- Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
| | | | - Lars H Hansen
- Bioscience Department, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark
- Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
| | - Stine Højlund Pedersen
- Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alaska Anchorage, Anchorage, AK, USA
| | - Niels M Schmidt
- Bioscience Department, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark
- Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
| | - Floris M van Beest
- Bioscience Department, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark
- Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
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5
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Garfelt-Paulsen IM, Soininen EM, Ravolainen V, Loe LE, Hansen BB, Irvine RJ, Stien A, Ropstad E, Veiberg V, Fuglei E, Pedersen ÅØ. Don't go chasing the ghosts of the past: habitat selection and site fidelity during calving in an Arctic ungulate. WILDLIFE BIOLOGY 2021. [DOI: 10.2981/wlb.00740] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/01/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Ingrid M. Garfelt-Paulsen
- I. M. Garfelt-Paulsen, V. Ravolainen, E. Fuglei and Å. Ø. Pedersen (https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9388-7402) ✉ , Norwegian Polar Inst., Fram Centre, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Eeva M. Soininen
- E. M. Soininen, UiT – Arctic Univ. of Norway, Dept of Arctic and Marine Biology, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Virve Ravolainen
- I. M. Garfelt-Paulsen, V. Ravolainen, E. Fuglei and Å. Ø. Pedersen (https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9388-7402) ✉ , Norwegian Polar Inst., Fram Centre, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Leif Egil Loe
- L. E. Loe, Norwegian Univ. for Life Sciences, Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management, Ås, Norway
| | - Brage B. Hansen
- B. B. Hansen, Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Dept of Biology, Norwegian Univ. of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - R. Justin Irvine
- R. J. Irvine, The James Hutton Inst., Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen, Scotland, UK, and: Frankfurt Zoological Society, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Audun Stien
- A. Stien, Norwegian Inst. for Nature Research, Fram Centre, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Erik Ropstad
- E. Ropstad, Norwegian Univ. for Life Sciences, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Oslo, Norway
| | - Vebjørn Veiberg
- V. Veiberg, Norwegian Inst. for Nature Research, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Eva Fuglei
- I. M. Garfelt-Paulsen, V. Ravolainen, E. Fuglei and Å. Ø. Pedersen (https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9388-7402) ✉ , Norwegian Polar Inst., Fram Centre, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Åshild Ønvik Pedersen
- I. M. Garfelt-Paulsen, V. Ravolainen, E. Fuglei and Å. Ø. Pedersen (https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9388-7402) ✉ , Norwegian Polar Inst., Fram Centre, Tromsø, Norway
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6
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Tyler NJC, Hanssen-Bauer I, Førland EJ, Nellemann C. The Shrinking Resource Base of Pastoralism: Saami Reindeer Husbandry in a Climate of Change. FRONTIERS IN SUSTAINABLE FOOD SYSTEMS 2021. [DOI: 10.3389/fsufs.2020.585685] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
The productive performance of large ungulates in extensive pastoral grazing systems is modulated simultaneously by the effects of climate change and human intervention independent of climate change. The latter includes the expansion of private, civil and military activity and infrastructure and the erosion of land rights. We used Saami reindeer husbandry in Norway as a model in which to examine trends in, and to compare the influence of, both effects on a pastoral grazing system. Downscaled projections of mean annual temperature over the principal winter pasture area (Finnmarksvidda) closely matched empirical observations across 34 years to 2018. The area, therefore, is not only warming but seems likely to continue to do so. Warming notwithstanding, 50-year (1969–2018) records of local weather (temperature, precipitation and characteristics of the snowpack) demonstrate considerable annual and decadal variation which also seems likely to continue and alternately to amplify and to counter net warming. Warming, moreover, has both positive and negative effects on ecosystem services that influence reindeer. The effects of climate change on reindeer pastoralism are evidently neither temporally nor spatially uniform, nor indeed is the role of climate change as a driver of change in pastoralism even clear. The effects of human intervention on the system, by contrast, are clear and largely negative. Gradual liberalization of grazing rights from the 18th Century has been countered by extensive loss of reindeer pasture. Access to ~50% of traditional winter pasture was lost in the 19th Century owing to the closure of international borders to the passage of herders and their reindeer. Subsequent to this the area of undisturbed pasture within Norway has decreased by 71%. Loss of pasture due to piecemeal development of infrastructure and to administrative encroachment that erodes herders' freedom of action on the land that remains to them, are the principal threats to reindeer husbandry in Norway today. These tangible effects far exceed the putative effects of current climate change on the system. The situation confronting Saami reindeer pastoralism is not unique: loss of pasture and administrative, economic, legal and social constraints bedevil extensive pastoral grazing systems across the globe.
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Berger J, Wangchuk T, Briceño C, Vila A, Lambert JE. Disassembled Food Webs and Messy Projections: Modern Ungulate Communities in the Face of Unabating Human Population Growth. Front Ecol Evol 2020. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2020.00128] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
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8
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Post E, Alley RB, Christensen TR, Macias-Fauria M, Forbes BC, Gooseff MN, Iler A, Kerby JT, Laidre KL, Mann ME, Olofsson J, Stroeve JC, Ulmer F, Virginia RA, Wang M. The polar regions in a 2°C warmer world. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2019; 5:eaaw9883. [PMID: 31840060 PMCID: PMC6892626 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaw9883] [Citation(s) in RCA: 126] [Impact Index Per Article: 25.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/12/2019] [Accepted: 09/26/2019] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Over the past decade, the Arctic has warmed by 0.75°C, far outpacing the global average, while Antarctic temperatures have remained comparatively stable. As Earth approaches 2°C warming, the Arctic and Antarctic may reach 4°C and 2°C mean annual warming, and 7°C and 3°C winter warming, respectively. Expected consequences of increased Arctic warming include ongoing loss of land and sea ice, threats to wildlife and traditional human livelihoods, increased methane emissions, and extreme weather at lower latitudes. With low biodiversity, Antarctic ecosystems may be vulnerable to state shifts and species invasions. Land ice loss in both regions will contribute substantially to global sea level rise, with up to 3 m rise possible if certain thresholds are crossed. Mitigation efforts can slow or reduce warming, but without them northern high latitude warming may accelerate in the next two to four decades. International cooperation will be crucial to foreseeing and adapting to expected changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eric Post
- Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Conservation Biology, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA 95616, USA
| | - Richard B. Alley
- Department of Geosciences, and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
| | - Torben R. Christensen
- Department of Bioscience, Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark
| | - Marc Macias-Fauria
- School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK
| | - Bruce C. Forbes
- Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, Box 122, FI-96101 Rovaniemi, Finland
| | - Michael N. Gooseff
- Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80303, USA
| | - Amy Iler
- Chicago Botanic Garden, 1000 Lake Cook Road, Glencoe, IL 60022, USA
| | - Jeffrey T. Kerby
- Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Conservation Biology, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA 95616, USA
- Neukom Institute for Computational Science, Institute of Arctic Studies, and Environmental Studies Program, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH 03755, USA
| | - Kristin L. Laidre
- Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, 1013 NE 40th Street, Seattle, WA 98105, USA
| | - Michael E. Mann
- Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science and Department of Geosciences, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
| | - Johan Olofsson
- Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, S-901 87 Umeå, Sweden
| | - Julienne C. Stroeve
- University College London, Bloomsbury, London, UK
- National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, CO 80303, USA
| | - Fran Ulmer
- Chair, U.S. Arctic Research Commission, 420 L Street, Suite 315 Anchorage, AK 99501, USA
- Chair, U.S. Artic Research Commission, 4350 N. Fairfax Drive, Suite 510, Arlington, VA 22203, USA
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA
| | - Ross A. Virginia
- Institute of Arctic Studies, and Environmental Studies Program, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH 03755, USA
| | - Muyin Wang
- Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA 98115, USA
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9
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Bargmann T, Wheatcroft E, Imperio S, Vetaas OR. Effects of weather and hunting on wild reindeer population dynamics in Hardangervidda National Park. POPUL ECOL 2019. [DOI: 10.1002/1438-390x.12030] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Tessa Bargmann
- Department of GeographyUniversity of Bergen Bergen Norway
| | - Edward Wheatcroft
- Centre for the Analysis of Time SeriesLondon School of Economics London UK
| | - Simona Imperio
- Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA) Ozzano Emilia Italy
- Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources Pisa Italy
| | - Ole R. Vetaas
- Department of GeographyUniversity of Bergen Bergen Norway
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10
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Hansen BB, Pedersen ÅØ, Peeters B, Le Moullec M, Albon SD, Herfindal I, Sæther B, Grøtan V, Aanes R. Spatial heterogeneity in climate change effects decouples the long-term dynamics of wild reindeer populations in the high Arctic. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2019; 25:3656-3668. [PMID: 31435996 PMCID: PMC6851690 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14761] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/15/2019] [Accepted: 03/05/2019] [Indexed: 05/18/2023]
Abstract
The 'Moran effect' predicts that dynamics of populations of a species are synchronized over similar distances as their environmental drivers. Strong population synchrony reduces species viability, but spatial heterogeneity in density dependence, the environment, or its ecological responses may decouple dynamics in space, preventing extinctions. How such heterogeneity buffers impacts of global change on large-scale population dynamics is not well studied. Here, we show that spatially autocorrelated fluctuations in annual winter weather synchronize wild reindeer dynamics across high-Arctic Svalbard, while, paradoxically, spatial variation in winter climate trends contribute to diverging local population trajectories. Warmer summers have improved the carrying capacity and apparently led to increased total reindeer abundance. However, fluctuations in population size seem mainly driven by negative effects of stochastic winter rain-on-snow (ROS) events causing icing, with strongest effects at high densities. Count data for 10 reindeer populations 8-324 km apart suggested that density-dependent ROS effects contributed to synchrony in population dynamics, mainly through spatially autocorrelated mortality. By comparing one coastal and one 'continental' reindeer population over four decades, we show that locally contrasting abundance trends can arise from spatial differences in climate change and responses to weather. The coastal population experienced a larger increase in ROS, and a stronger density-dependent ROS effect on population growth rates, than the continental population. In contrast, the latter experienced stronger summer warming and showed the strongest positive response to summer temperatures. Accordingly, contrasting net effects of a recent climate regime shift-with increased ROS and harsher winters, yet higher summer temperatures and improved carrying capacity-led to negative and positive abundance trends in the coastal and continental population respectively. Thus, synchronized population fluctuations by climatic drivers can be buffered by spatial heterogeneity in the same drivers, as well as in the ecological responses, averaging out climate change effects at larger spatial scales.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brage Bremset Hansen
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics (CBD)Department of BiologyNorwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)TrondheimNorway
| | | | - Bart Peeters
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics (CBD)Department of BiologyNorwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)TrondheimNorway
| | - Mathilde Le Moullec
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics (CBD)Department of BiologyNorwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)TrondheimNorway
| | | | - Ivar Herfindal
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics (CBD)Department of BiologyNorwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)TrondheimNorway
| | - Bernt‐Erik Sæther
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics (CBD)Department of BiologyNorwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)TrondheimNorway
| | - Vidar Grøtan
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics (CBD)Department of BiologyNorwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)TrondheimNorway
| | - Ronny Aanes
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics (CBD)Department of BiologyNorwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)TrondheimNorway
- Norwegian Polar Institute (NPI)Fram CentreTromsøNorway
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11
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Blix AS. Adaptations to polar life in mammals and birds. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2017; 219:1093-105. [PMID: 27103673 DOI: 10.1242/jeb.120477] [Citation(s) in RCA: 67] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/07/2015] [Accepted: 01/25/2016] [Indexed: 12/22/2022]
Abstract
This Review presents a broad overview of adaptations of truly Arctic and Antarctic mammals and birds to the challenges of polar life. The polar environment may be characterized by grisly cold, scarcity of food and darkness in winter, and lush conditions and continuous light in summer. Resident animals cope with these changes by behavioural, physical and physiological means. These include responses aimed at reducing exposure, such as 'balling up', huddling and shelter building; seasonal changes in insulation by fur, plumage and blubber; and circulatory adjustments aimed at preservation of core temperature, to which end the periphery and extremities are cooled to increase insulation. Newborn altricial animals have profound tolerance to hypothermia, but depend on parental care for warmth, whereas precocial mammals are well insulated and respond to cold with non-shivering thermogenesis in brown adipose tissue, and precocial birds shiver to produce heat. Most polar animals prepare themselves for shortness of food during winter by the deposition of large amounts of fat in times of plenty during autumn. These deposits are governed by a sliding set-point for body fatness throughout winter so that they last until the sun reappears in spring. Polar animals are, like most others, primarily active during the light part of the day, but when the sun never sets in summer and darkness prevails during winter, high-latitude animals become intermittently active around the clock, allowing opportunistic feeding at all times. The importance of understanding the needs of the individuals of a species to understand the responses of populations in times of climate change is emphasized.
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Affiliation(s)
- Arnoldus Schytte Blix
- Department of Arctic Biology, University of Tromsø, Tromsø 9037, Norway St Catharine's College, Cambridge CB2 1RL, UK
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12
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Le Moullec M, Pedersen ÅØ, Yoccoz NG, Aanes R, Tufto J, Hansen BB. Ungulate population monitoring in an open tundra landscape: distance sampling versus total counts. WILDLIFE BIOLOGY 2017. [DOI: 10.2981/wlb.00299] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/01/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Mathilde Le Moullec
- Mathilde Le Moullec and N. Yoccoz, Dept of Arctic and Marine Biology, UiT The Arctic Univ. of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Åshild Ønvik Pedersen
- MLM, Å. Ø. Pedersen and R. Aanes, Norwegian Polar Inst., Tromsø, Norway. Present address for RA: Norwegian Environment Agency, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Nigel Gilles Yoccoz
- Mathilde Le Moullec and N. Yoccoz, Dept of Arctic and Marine Biology, UiT The Arctic Univ. of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Ronny Aanes
- MLM, Å. Ø. Pedersen and R. Aanes, Norwegian Polar Inst., Tromsø, Norway. Present address for RA: Norwegian Environment Agency, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Jarle Tufto
- J. Tufto, Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Dept of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian Univ. of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway
| | - Brage Bremset Hansen
- B. B. Hansen and present address for MLM: Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Dept of Biology, Norwegian Univ. of Science and Technology (NTNU), NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway
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13
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Albon SD, Irvine RJ, Halvorsen O, Langvatn R, Loe LE, Ropstad E, Veiberg V, van der Wal R, Bjørkvoll EM, Duff EI, Hansen BB, Lee AM, Tveraa T, Stien A. Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming on body mass explain population dynamics in a food-limited Arctic herbivore. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2017; 23:1374-1389. [PMID: 27426229 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13435] [Citation(s) in RCA: 79] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2016] [Accepted: 07/05/2016] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
The cumulative effects of climate warming on herbivore vital rates and population dynamics are hard to predict, given that the expected effects differ between seasons. In the Arctic, warmer summers enhance plant growth which should lead to heavier and more fertile individuals in the autumn. Conversely, warm spells in winter with rainfall (rain-on-snow) can cause 'icing', restricting access to forage, resulting in starvation, lower survival and fecundity. As body condition is a 'barometer' of energy demands relative to energy intake, we explored the causes and consequences of variation in body mass of wild female Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) from 1994 to 2015, a period of marked climate warming. Late winter (April) body mass explained 88% of the between-year variation in population growth rate, because it strongly influenced reproductive loss, and hence subsequent fecundity (92%), as well as survival (94%) and recruitment (93%). Autumn (October) body mass affected ovulation rates but did not affect fecundity. April body mass showed no long-term trend (coefficient of variation, CV = 8.8%) and was higher following warm autumn (October) weather, reflecting delays in winter onset, but most strongly, and negatively, related to 'rain-on-snow' events. October body mass (CV = 2.5%) increased over the study due to higher plant productivity in the increasingly warm summers. Density-dependent mass change suggested competition for resources in both winter and summer but was less pronounced in recent years, despite an increasing population size. While continued climate warming is expected to increase the carrying capacity of the high Arctic tundra, it is also likely to cause more frequent icing events. Our analyses suggest that these contrasting effects may cause larger seasonal fluctuations in body mass and vital rates. Overall our findings provide an important 'missing' mechanistic link in the current understanding of the population biology of a keystone species in a rapidly warming Arctic.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Odd Halvorsen
- Natural History Museum, University of Oslo, Box 1172 Blindern, NO-0318, Oslo, Norway
| | - Rolf Langvatn
- University Courses in Svalbard (UNIS), P.O. Box 156, NO-9171, Longyearbyen, Norway
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), P.O. Box 5685 Sluppen, NO-7485, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Leif E Loe
- Department of Ecology and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003, NO-1432, Aas, Norway
| | - Erik Ropstad
- Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 8146, NO-0033, Oslo, Norway
| | - Vebjørn Veiberg
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), P.O. Box 5685 Sluppen, NO-7485, Trondheim, Norway
| | - René van der Wal
- Aberdeen Centre for Environmental Sustainability (ACES), School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, AB24 3UU, UK
| | - Eirin M Bjørkvoll
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics (CBD), Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science & Technology (NTNU), N-7491, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Elizabeth I Duff
- Biomathematics & Statistics Scotland (BioSS), Aberdeen, AB15 8QH, UK
| | - Brage B Hansen
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics (CBD), Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science & Technology (NTNU), N-7491, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Aline M Lee
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics (CBD), Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science & Technology (NTNU), N-7491, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Torkild Tveraa
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), Fram Centre, NO-9296, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Audun Stien
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), Fram Centre, NO-9296, Tromsø, Norway
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14
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Pomara LY, Zuckerberg B. Climate variability drives population cycling and synchrony. DIVERS DISTRIB 2017. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12540] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Lars Y. Pomara
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology; University of Wisconsin-Madison; Madison WI 53706 USA
| | - Benjamin Zuckerberg
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology; University of Wisconsin-Madison; Madison WI 53706 USA
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15
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Descamps S, Aars J, Fuglei E, Kovacs KM, Lydersen C, Pavlova O, Pedersen ÅØ, Ravolainen V, Strøm H. Climate change impacts on wildlife in a High Arctic archipelago - Svalbard, Norway. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2017; 23:490-502. [PMID: 27250039 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13381] [Citation(s) in RCA: 60] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2015] [Accepted: 05/16/2016] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Abstract
The Arctic is warming more rapidly than other region on the planet, and the northern Barents Sea, including the Svalbard Archipelago, is experiencing the fastest temperature increases within the circumpolar Arctic, along with the highest rate of sea ice loss. These physical changes are affecting a broad array of resident Arctic organisms as well as some migrants that occupy the region seasonally. Herein, evidence of climate change impacts on terrestrial and marine wildlife in Svalbard is reviewed, with a focus on bird and mammal species. In the terrestrial ecosystem, increased winter air temperatures and concomitant increases in the frequency of 'rain-on-snow' events are one of the most important facets of climate change with respect to impacts on flora and fauna. Winter rain creates ice that blocks access to food for herbivores and synchronizes the population dynamics of the herbivore-predator guild. In the marine ecosystem, increases in sea temperature and reductions in sea ice are influencing the entire food web. These changes are affecting the foraging and breeding ecology of most marine birds and mammals and are associated with an increase in abundance of several temperate fish, seabird and marine mammal species. Our review indicates that even though a few species are benefiting from a warming climate, most Arctic endemic species in Svalbard are experiencing negative consequences induced by the warming environment. Our review emphasizes the tight relationships between the marine and terrestrial ecosystems in this High Arctic archipelago. Detecting changes in trophic relationships within and between these ecosystems requires long-term (multidecadal) demographic, population- and ecosystem-based monitoring, the results of which are necessary to set appropriate conservation priorities in relation to climate warming.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Jon Aars
- Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, Tromsø, 9296, Norway
| | - Eva Fuglei
- Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, Tromsø, 9296, Norway
| | - Kit M Kovacs
- Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, Tromsø, 9296, Norway
| | | | - Olga Pavlova
- Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, Tromsø, 9296, Norway
| | | | | | - Hallvard Strøm
- Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, Tromsø, 9296, Norway
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16
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Bastille-Rousseau G, Schaefer JA, Lewis KP, Mumma MA, Ellington EH, Rayl ND, Mahoney SP, Pouliot D, Murray DL. Phase-dependent climate-predator interactions explain three decades of variation in neonatal caribou survival. J Anim Ecol 2015; 85:445-56. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.12466] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/24/2015] [Accepted: 10/16/2015] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Affiliation(s)
| | - James A. Schaefer
- Environmental and Life Sciences Graduate Program; Trent University; Peterborough Ontario K9J 7B8 Canada
| | - Keith P. Lewis
- Newfoundland and Labrador Department of Environment and Conservation; P.O. Box 8700 St. John's Newfoundland and Labrador A1B 4J6 Canada
| | - Matthew A. Mumma
- Department of Fish and Wildlife Sciences; College of Natural Resources; University of Idaho; Moscow ID 83844 USA
| | - E. Hance Ellington
- Environmental and Life Sciences Graduate Program; Trent University; Peterborough Ontario K9J 7B8 Canada
| | - Nathaniel D. Rayl
- Department of Environmental Conservation; University of Massachusetts; Amherst Massachusetts 01003 USA
| | - Shane P. Mahoney
- Newfoundland and Labrador Department of Environment and Conservation; P.O. Box 8700 St. John's Newfoundland and Labrador A1B 4J6 Canada
| | - Darren Pouliot
- Natural Resources Canada; Canada Centre for Remote Sensing; Ottawa Ontario K1A 0E4 Canada
| | - Dennis L. Murray
- Environmental and Life Sciences Graduate Program; Trent University; Peterborough Ontario K9J 7B8 Canada
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17
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Large and irregular population fluctuations in migratory Pacific (Calidris alpina pacifica) and Atlantic (C. a. hudsonica) dunlins are driven by density-dependence and climatic factors. POPUL ECOL 2015. [DOI: 10.1007/s10144-015-0502-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/23/2022]
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18
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Hempson GP, Illius AW, Hendricks HH, Bond WJ, Vetter S. Herbivore population regulation and resource heterogeneity in a stochastic environment. Ecology 2015; 96:2170-80. [DOI: 10.1890/14-1501.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
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19
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García-Algarra J, Galeano J, Pastor JM, Iriondo JM, Ramasco JJ. Rethinking the logistic approach for population dynamics of mutualistic interactions. J Theor Biol 2014; 363:332-43. [PMID: 25173080 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2014.08.039] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/12/2014] [Revised: 07/18/2014] [Accepted: 08/20/2014] [Indexed: 10/24/2022]
Abstract
Mutualistic communities have an internal structure that makes them resilient to external perturbations. Late research has focused on their stability and the topology of the relations between the different organisms to explain the reasons of the system robustness. Much less attention has been invested in analyzing the systems dynamics. The main population models in use are modifications of the r-K formulation of logistic equation with additional terms to account for the benefits produced by the interspecific interactions. These models have shortcomings as the so-called r-K formulation diverges under some conditions. In this work, we introduce a model for population dynamics under mutualism that preserves the original logistic formulation. It is mathematically simpler than the widely used type II models, although it shows similar complexity in terms of fixed points and stability of the dynamics. We perform an analytical stability analysis and numerical simulations to study the model behavior in general interaction scenarios including tests of the resilience of its dynamics under external perturbations. Despite its simplicity, our results indicate that the model dynamics shows an important richness that can be used to gain further insights in the dynamics of mutualistic communities.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Javier Galeano
- Complex System Group, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain; Dep. Ciencia y Tecnología Aplicadas a la I.T. Agrícola, E.U.I.T. Agrícola, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain.
| | - Juan Manuel Pastor
- Complex System Group, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain; Dep. Ciencia y Tecnología Aplicadas a la I.T. Agrícola, E.U.I.T. Agrícola, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain
| | - José María Iriondo
- Área de Biodiversidad y Conservación, Dept. Biología y Geología, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, 28933 Móstoles, Spain
| | - José J Ramasco
- Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos IFISC (CSIC-UIB), Campus UIB, 07122 Palma de Mallorca, Spain
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20
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Gustine DD, Barboza PS, Adams LG, Wolf NB. Environmental and physiological influences to isotopic ratios of N and protein status in a Montane ungulate in winter. PLoS One 2014; 9:e103471. [PMID: 25102057 PMCID: PMC4125309 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0103471] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/13/2014] [Accepted: 07/03/2014] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Winter severity can influence large herbivore populations through a reduction in maternal proteins available for reproduction. Nitrogen (N) isotopes in blood fractions can be used to track the use of body proteins in northern and montane ungulates. We studied 113 adult female caribou for 13 years throughout a series of severe winters that reduced population size and offspring mass. After these severe winters, offspring mass increased but the size of the population remained low. We devised a conceptual model for routing of isotopic N in blood in the context of the severe environmental conditions experienced by this population. We measured δ15N in three blood fractions and predicted the relative mobilization of dietary and body proteins. The δ 15N of the body protein pool varied by 4‰ and 46% of the variance was associated with year. Annual variation in δ15N of body protein likely reflected the fall/early winter diet and winter locations, yet 15% of the isotopic variation in amino acid N was due to body proteins. Consistent isotopic differences among blood N pools indicated that animals tolerated fluxes in diet and body stores. Conservation of body protein in caribou is the result of active exchange among diet and body N pools. Adult females were robust to historically severe winter conditions and prioritized body condition and survival over early investment in offspring. For a vagile ungulate residing at low densities in a predator-rich environment, protein restrictions in winter may not be the primary limiting factor for reproduction.
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Affiliation(s)
- David D Gustine
- United States Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center, Anchorage, Alaska, United States of America
| | - Perry S Barboza
- Institute of Arctic Biology, Department of Biology and Wildlife, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, United States of America
| | - Layne G Adams
- United States Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center, Anchorage, Alaska, United States of America
| | - Nathan B Wolf
- Environment and Natural Resources Institute, University of Alaska Anchorage, Anchorage, Alaska, United States of America
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21
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Gustine DD, Brinkman TJ, Lindgren MA, Schmidt JI, Rupp TS, Adams LG. Climate-driven effects of fire on winter habitat for caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. PLoS One 2014; 9:e100588. [PMID: 24991804 PMCID: PMC4081032 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0100588] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/21/2014] [Accepted: 05/27/2014] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs), and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old) across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (−21%) than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (−11%). Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- David D. Gustine
- U. S. Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center, Anchorage, Alaska, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Todd J. Brinkman
- Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, United States of America
| | - Michael A. Lindgren
- Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, United States of America
| | - Jennifer I. Schmidt
- Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, United States of America
| | - T. Scott Rupp
- Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, United States of America
| | - Layne G. Adams
- U. S. Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center, Anchorage, Alaska, United States of America
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22
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Garcia RA, Cabeza M, Rahbek C, Araújo MB. Multiple dimensions of climate change and their implications for biodiversity. Science 2014; 344:1247579. [PMID: 24786084 DOI: 10.1126/science.1247579] [Citation(s) in RCA: 257] [Impact Index Per Article: 25.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/01/2023]
Abstract
The 21st century is projected to witness unprecedented climatic changes, with greater warming often reported for high latitudes. Yet, climate change can be measured in a variety of ways, reflecting distinct dimensions of change with unequal spatial patterns across the world. Polar climates are projected to not only warm, but also to shrink in area. By contrast, today's hot and arid climates are expected to expand worldwide and to reach climate states with no current analog. Although rarely appreciated in combination, these multiple dimensions of change convey complementary information. We review existing climate change metrics and discuss how they relate to threats and opportunities for biodiversity. Interpreting climate change metrics is particularly useful for unknown or poorly described species, which represent most of Earth's biodiversity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Raquel A Garcia
- Department of Biogeography and Global Change, National Museum of Natural Sciences, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Calle José Gutierrez Abascal 2, 28006 Madrid, Spain
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23
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Williams CM, Henry HAL, Sinclair BJ. Cold truths: how winter drives responses of terrestrial organisms to climate change. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 2014; 90:214-35. [PMID: 24720862 DOI: 10.1111/brv.12105] [Citation(s) in RCA: 318] [Impact Index Per Article: 31.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/04/2013] [Revised: 02/24/2014] [Accepted: 03/06/2014] [Indexed: 01/17/2023]
Abstract
Winter is a key driver of individual performance, community composition, and ecological interactions in terrestrial habitats. Although climate change research tends to focus on performance in the growing season, climate change is also modifying winter conditions rapidly. Changes to winter temperatures, the variability of winter conditions, and winter snow cover can interact to induce cold injury, alter energy and water balance, advance or retard phenology, and modify community interactions. Species vary in their susceptibility to these winter drivers, hampering efforts to predict biological responses to climate change. Existing frameworks for predicting the impacts of climate change do not incorporate the complexity of organismal responses to winter. Here, we synthesise organismal responses to winter climate change, and use this synthesis to build a framework to predict exposure and sensitivity to negative impacts. This framework can be used to estimate the vulnerability of species to winter climate change. We describe the importance of relationships between winter conditions and performance during the growing season in determining fitness, and demonstrate how summer and winter processes are linked. Incorporating winter into current models will require concerted effort from theoreticians and empiricists, and the expansion of current growing-season studies to incorporate winter.
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Affiliation(s)
- Caroline M Williams
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, U.S.A
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24
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Jensen GH, Madsen J, Johnson FA, Tamstorf MP. Snow conditions as an estimator of the breeding output in high-Arctic pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus. Polar Biol 2013. [DOI: 10.1007/s00300-013-1404-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
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25
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Bastille-Rousseau G, Schaefer JA, Mahoney SP, Murray DL. Population decline in semi-migratory caribou (Rangifer tarandus): intrinsic or extrinsic drivers? CAN J ZOOL 2013. [DOI: 10.1139/cjz-2013-0154] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Abstract
Many populations of caribou (Rangifer tarandus (L., 1758)) across North America, including Newfoundland, are in a state of decline. This phenomenon may reflect continental-scale changes in either the extrinsic or the intrinsic factors affecting caribou abundance. We hypothesized that caribou decline reflected marked resource limitation and predicted that fluctuations should correspond to time-delayed density dependence associated with a decline in range quality and decadal trends in winter severity. By conducting time-series analysis using 12 populations and evaluating correlations between caribou abundance and trends in (i) vegetation available at calving (normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI), (ii) winter weather severity (index of North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO), and (iii) caribou morphometrics, we observed strong evidence of density dependence in population dynamics (i.e., a negative relationship between caribou population size and caribou morphometrics). Caribou population trajectories were time-delayed relative to winter severity, but not relative to calving-ground greenness. These island-wide correlations could not be traced to dispersal between herds, which appears rare at least for adult females. Our results suggest that trends in winter severity may synchronize broad-scale changes in caribou abundance that are driven by time-delayed density dependence, although it remains possible that calving-ground deterioration also may contribute to population limitation in Newfoundland. Our findings provide the basis for additional research into density dependence and caribou population decline.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guillaume Bastille-Rousseau
- Environmental and Life Sciences Graduate Program, Trent University; 1600 West Bank Drive, Peterborough, ON K9J 7B8, Canada
| | - James A. Schaefer
- Environmental and Life Sciences Graduate Program, Trent University; 1600 West Bank Drive, Peterborough, ON K9J 7B8, Canada
| | - Shane P. Mahoney
- Newfoundland and Labrador Department of Environment and Conservation, PO Box 8700, St. John’s, NL A1B 4J6, Canada
| | - Dennis L. Murray
- Environmental and Life Sciences Graduate Program, Trent University; 1600 West Bank Drive, Peterborough, ON K9J 7B8, Canada
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26
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Kerby J, Post E. Capital and income breeding traits differentiate trophic match-mismatch dynamics in large herbivores. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2013; 368:20120484. [PMID: 23836789 PMCID: PMC3720056 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2012.0484] [Citation(s) in RCA: 62] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
For some species, climate change has altered environmental conditions away from those in which life-history strategies evolved. In such cases, if adaptation does not keep pace with these changes, existing life-history strategies may become maladaptive and lead to population declines. We use life-history theory, with a specific emphasis on breeding strategies, in the context of the trophic match-mismatch framework to form generalizable hypotheses about population-level consumer responses to climate-driven perturbations in resource availability. We first characterize the income and breeding traits of sympatric caribou and muskoxen populations in western Greenland, and then test trait-based hypotheses about the expected reproductive performance of each population during a period of high resource variability at that site. The immediate reproductive performance of income breeding caribou decreased with trophic mismatch. In contrast, capital breeding muskoxen were relatively unaffected by current breeding season resource variability, but their reproductive performance was sensitive to resource conditions from previous years. These responses matched our expectations about how capital and income breeding strategies should influence population susceptibility to phenological mismatch. We argue for a taxon-independent assessment of trophic mismatch vulnerability based on a life-history strategy perspective in the context of prevailing environmental conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jeffrey Kerby
- The Polar Center, and Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, 208 Mueller Lab, University Park, PA 16802, USA.
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27
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Post E, Høye TT. Advancing the long view of ecological change in tundra systems. Introduction. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2013; 368:20120477. [PMID: 23836784 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2012.0477] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Despite uncertainties related to sustained funding, ideological rivalries and the turnover of research personnel, long-term studies and studies espousing a long-term perspective in ecology have a history of contributing landmark insights into fundamental topics, such as population- and community dynamics, species interactions and ecosystem function. They also have the potential to reveal surprises related to unforeseen events and non-stationary dynamics that unfold over the course of ongoing observation and experimentation. The unprecedented rate and magnitude of current and expected abiotic changes in tundra environments calls for a synthetic overview of the scope of ecological responses these changes have elicited. In this special issue, we present a series of contributions that advance the long view of ecological change in tundra systems, either through sustained long-term research, or through retrospective or prospective modelling. Beyond highlighting the value of long-term research in tundra systems, the insights derived herein should also find application to the study of ecological responses to environmental change in other biomes as well.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eric Post
- The Polar Center, and Department of Biology, Penn State University, 208 Mueller Lab, University Park, PA 16802, USA.
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28
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Bilodeau F, Reid DG, Gauthier G, Krebs CJ, Berteaux D, Kenney AJ. Demographic response of tundra small mammals to a snow fencing experiment. OIKOS 2012. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0706.2012.00220.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
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29
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Stien A, Ims RA, Albon SD, Fuglei E, Irvine RJ, Ropstad E, Halvorsen O, Langvatn R, Loe LE, Veiberg V, Yoccoz NG. Congruent responses to weather variability in high arctic herbivores. Biol Lett 2012; 8:1002-5. [PMID: 23015455 PMCID: PMC3497145 DOI: 10.1098/rsbl.2012.0764] [Citation(s) in RCA: 74] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Assessing the role of weather in the dynamics of wildlife populations is a pressing task in the face of rapid environmental change. Rodents and ruminants are abundant herbivore species in most Arctic ecosystems, many of which are experiencing particularly rapid climate change. Their different life-history characteristics, with the exception of their trophic position, suggest that they should show different responses to environmental variation. Here we show that the only mammalian herbivores on the Arctic islands of Svalbard, reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) and sibling voles (Microtus levis), exhibit strong synchrony in population parameters. This synchrony is due to rain-on-snow events that cause ground ice and demonstrates that climate impacts can be similarly integrated and expressed in species with highly contrasting life histories. The finding suggests that responses of wildlife populations to climate variability and change might be more consistent in Polar regions than elsewhere owing to the strength of the climate impact and the simplicity of the ecosystem.
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Affiliation(s)
- Audun Stien
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Fram Centre, 9296 Tromsø, Norway.
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30
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Hobbs NT, Andrén H, Persson J, Aronsson M, Chapron G. Native predators reduce harvest of reindeer by Sámi pastoralists. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2012; 22:1640-1654. [PMID: 22908719 DOI: 10.1890/11-1309.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
Contemporary efforts to protect biological diversity recognize the importance of sustaining traditional human livelihoods, particularly uses of the land that are compatible with intact landscapes and ecologically complete food webs. However, these efforts often confront conflicting goals. For example, conserving native predators may harm pastoralist economies because predators consume domestic livestock that sustain people. This potential conflict must be reconciled by policy, but such reconciliation requires a firm understanding of the effects of predators on the prey used by people. We used a long-term, large-scale database and Bayesian models to estimate the impacts of lynx (Lynx lynx), wolverine (Gulo gulo), and brown bear (Ursus arctos) on harvest of semi-domesticated reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) by Sami pastoralists in Sweden. The average annual harvest of reindeer averaged 25% of the population (95% credible interval = 19, 31). Annual harvest declined by 96.6 (31, 155) reindeer for each lynx family group (the surveyed segment of the lynx population) in a management unit and by 94.3 (20, 160) for each wolverine reproduction (the surveyed segment of the wolverine population). We failed to detect effects of predation by brown bear. The mechanism for effects of predation on harvest was reduced population growth rate. The rate of increase of reindeer populations declined with increasing abundance of lynx and wolverine. The density of reindeer, latitude, and weather indexed by the North Atlantic Oscillation also influenced reindeer population growth rate. We conclude that there is a biological basis for compensating the Sámi reindeer herders for predation on reindeer.
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Affiliation(s)
- N Thompson Hobbs
- Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado 80523, USA.
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31
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Carlsson AM, Justin Irvine R, Wilson K, Piertney SB, Halvorsen O, Coulson SJ, Stien A, Albon SD. Disease transmission in an extreme environment: Nematode parasites infect reindeer during the Arctic winter. Int J Parasitol 2012; 42:789-95. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ijpara.2012.05.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/05/2012] [Revised: 05/25/2012] [Accepted: 05/28/2012] [Indexed: 02/02/2023]
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32
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Gilg O, Kovacs KM, Aars J, Fort J, Gauthier G, Grémillet D, Ims RA, Meltofte H, Moreau J, Post E, Schmidt NM, Yannic G, Bollache L. Climate change and the ecology and evolution of Arctic vertebrates. Ann N Y Acad Sci 2012; 1249:166-90. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1749-6632.2011.06412.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 138] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
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Hansen BB, Aanes R, Herfindal I, Kohler J, Saether BE. Climate, icing, and wild arctic reindeer: past relationships and future prospects. Ecology 2011; 92:1917-23. [PMID: 22073783 DOI: 10.1890/11-0095.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 79] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
Across the Arctic, heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) is an "extreme" climatic event that is expected to become increasingly frequent with global warming. This has potentially large ecosystem implications through changes in snowpack properties and ground-icing, which can block the access to herbivores' winter food and thereby suppress their population growth rates. However, the supporting empirical evidence for this is still limited. We monitored late winter snowpack properties to examine the causes and consequences of ground-icing in a Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) metapopulation. In this high-arctic area, heavy ROS occurred annually, and ground-ice covered from 25% to 96% of low-altitude habitat in the sampling period (2000-2010). The extent of ground-icing increased with the annual number of days with heavy ROS (> or = 10 mm) and had a strong negative effect on reindeer population growth rates. Our results have important implications as a downscaled climate projection (2021-2050) suggests a substantial future increase in ROS and icing. The present study is the first to demonstrate empirically that warmer and wetter winter climate influences large herbivore population dynamics by generating ice-locked pastures. This may serve as an early warning of the importance of changes in winter climate and extreme weather events in arctic ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brage Bremset Hansen
- Centre for Conservation Biology (CCB), Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), N-7491 Trondheim, Norway.
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Reimers E, Lund S, Ergon T. Vigilance and fright behaviour in the insular Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus). CAN J ZOOL 2011. [DOI: 10.1139/z11-040] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Abstract
The insular Svalbard reindeer ( Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus Vrolik, 1829) provide an opportunity to study vigilance behaviour in the absence of predators and parasitizing insects. We measured vigilance and fright and flight response during summer 2006 in the Svalbard archipelago; in four areas on Nordenskiöld Land on the island Spitzbergen and in one area on the island Edgeøya. Vigilance was higher in reindeer on Edgeøya than in the four Spitzbergen areas. Males were less vigilant than lactating and barren females and vigilance decreased with increasing group size. The relaxed vigilance behaviour in Svalbard reindeer compared with wild reindeer in southern Norway demonstrates a vigilance threshold in the absence of traditional predators of Rangifer Hamilton Smith, 1827. Alert, flight initiation, and escape distances were all shorter in Adventdalen, with Longyearbyen and its considerably higher amounts of human activities and infrastructure than in the other study areas, supporting evidence of habituation towards humans. There were no systematic vigilance or differences in fright and flight responses between reindeer in Colesdalen, Reindalen, and Sassendalen, indicating that a combination of low level of human activities including hunting, recreation, and scientific activities affected the animals differently. Lower probability of assessing before fleeing in Edgeøya (63% vs. 94% in the Nordenskiöld Land areas), along with their higher vigilance, may indicate more frequent interactions with polar bears ( Ursus maritimus Phipps, 1774) in Edgeøya.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eigil Reimers
- Department of Biology, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1066 Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway
| | - Steinar Lund
- Department of Ecology and Natural Resources Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, 1432 Ås, Norway
| | - Torbjørn Ergon
- Department of Biology, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1066 Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway
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Ashley NT, Barboza PS, Macbeth BJ, Janz DM, Cattet MRL, Booth RK, Wasser SK. Glucocorticosteroid concentrations in feces and hair of captive caribou and reindeer following adrenocorticotropic hormone challenge. Gen Comp Endocrinol 2011; 172:382-91. [PMID: 21501613 DOI: 10.1016/j.ygcen.2011.03.029] [Citation(s) in RCA: 96] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/25/2011] [Revised: 03/30/2011] [Accepted: 03/31/2011] [Indexed: 12/28/2022]
Abstract
Climate change and industrial development are contributing to synchronous declines in Rangifer populations across the Arctic. Chronic stress has been implicated as a proximate factor associated with decline in free-ranging populations, but its role in Rangifer is unspecified. Analysis of glucocorticosteroid (GC) concentration in feces, and more recently in hair, is a non-invasive method for monitoring stress in wildlife. Adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH) released from the pituitary gland stimulates GC release from the adrenals and can be administered to reflect adrenal activation. In this study, we assessed concentrations of GC metabolites in feces and cortisol in hair of Alaskan caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) and reindeer (R. t. tarandus) following ACTH treatment. We predicted that ACTH challenge would increase concentrations of fecal GCs, but not hair cortisol because steroid deposited into the hair shaft occurs over an extended period of time (months) and is likely insensitive to acute adrenal stimulation. Adult caribou (n=10; mean age, 6.5 years old) exhibited a peak increase in fecal GCs 8h following a 2 IU/kg dose of ACTH compared to pre-injection concentrations. In contrast, sub-adult reindeer (n=10, 0.8 years old) elicited a diminished response to the same dose. Quadrupling the dose (8 IU/kg) prolonged the fecal GC response in female reindeer, but male reindeer were unresponsive. Hair cortisol was unaffected by a single ACTH challenge. Further investigation is required to ascertain whether subspecific differences in adrenal sensitivity are attributed to age or sex differences, or historical selective pressures from semi-domestication and/or sedentary life cycle in reindeer.
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Affiliation(s)
- N T Ashley
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alaska, Anchorage, Alaska, USA.
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Coristine LE, Kerr JT. Habitat loss, climate change, and emerging conservation challenges in Canada1This review is part of the virtual symposium “Flagship Species – Flagship Problems” that deals with ecology, biodiversity and management issues, and climate impacts on species at risk and of Canadian importance, including the polar bear (Ursus maritimus), Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus), and caribou (Rangifer tarandus). CAN J ZOOL 2011. [DOI: 10.1139/z11-023] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Abstract
In Canada, habitat loss has pushed many more species to the brink of extinction than expected in a region with extensive wilderness. However, species richness gradients depend strongly on climate, so species are concentrated in southern regions, where agricultural and urban land uses are both intensive and extensive. Agricultural pesticide use is associated with increasing rates of species endangerment in the south, but long-range transport of persistent organic pollutants is an emerging issue in remote northern regions. Because their distributions reflect climate so strongly, climate change threatens species throughout Canada. Evidence indicates that species’ distributions, phenologies, and interactions with pests and diseases are changing more rapidly in response to climate change than global mean values. Nevertheless, climate change is expected to impose dispersal requirements that surpass species’ maximum rates. Habitat losses may interact with climate change to impair species’ dispersal still further, creating the potential for widespread disruption of biological systems in the most diverse areas of Canada. New research is urgently needed to address questions, and the ethics, around species translocation, ecosystem engineering to anticipate future environmental conditions, and strategies to facilitate the persistence of rare species in landscapes dominated by human activities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laura E. Coristine
- Canadian Facility for Ecoinformatics Research, Department of Biology, Ottawa–Carleton Institute of Biology, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, Canada
| | - Jeremy T. Kerr
- Canadian Facility for Ecoinformatics Research, Department of Biology, Ottawa–Carleton Institute of Biology, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, Canada
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Hansen BB, Aanes R, Sæther BE. Partial seasonal migration in high-arctic Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus). CAN J ZOOL 2010. [DOI: 10.1139/z10-086] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Abstract
We examined seasonal range use and calving success in wild Svalbard reindeer ( Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus Vrolik, 1829) on two contrasting ranges separated by risky barriers (open sea, thin sea ice, and glaciers). One (“poor”) range had a depleted lichen resource and negative reindeer population trend, whereas the neighbouring (“rich”) range was recently occupied with initially high lichen abundance and positive population trend. Winter foraging conditions limit survival and reproduction in this predator-free system and lichens are the preferred winter food by reindeer. Accordingly, marked female reindeer that switched between the ranges (“migrants”) spent most winters on the lichen-rich range, yet most summers on the poor range (possibly owing to fidelity to calving area). While facing high mortality risk along the migration route, migrants spending the winter on the rich range and subsequent summer on the poor range had improved calving success compared with residents on the poor range. The partial seasonal migration pattern diminished as lichens were reduced and reindeer carrying capacity reached on the rich range. Besides this apparent density-dependence in migratory behaviour, spatial strategy seems shaped by past experience and trade-offs between current survival (safe habitat) and future reproduction (food-rich habitat).
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Affiliation(s)
- B. B. Hansen
- Centre for Conservation Biology (CCB), Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), N-7491 Trondheim, Norway
- Norwegian Polar Institute (NPI), Polar Environmental Centre, N-9296 Tromsø, Norway
| | - R. Aanes
- Centre for Conservation Biology (CCB), Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), N-7491 Trondheim, Norway
- Norwegian Polar Institute (NPI), Polar Environmental Centre, N-9296 Tromsø, Norway
| | - B.-E. Sæther
- Centre for Conservation Biology (CCB), Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), N-7491 Trondheim, Norway
- Norwegian Polar Institute (NPI), Polar Environmental Centre, N-9296 Tromsø, Norway
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Peeters F, Li J, Straile D, Rothhaupt KO, Vijverberg J. Influence of low and decreasing food levels on Daphnia-algal interactions: Numerical experiments with a new dynamic energy budget model. Ecol Modell 2010. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.08.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/19/2022]
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Fukaya K, Okuda T, Nakaoka M, Hori M, Noda T. Seasonality in the strength and spatial scale of processes determining intertidal barnacle population growth. J Anim Ecol 2010; 79:1270-9. [PMID: 20636347 DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2010.01727.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Keiichi Fukaya
- Graduate School of Environmental Science, Hokkaido University, N10W5, Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-0810, Japan.
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Stien A, Loe LE, Mysterud A, Severinsen T, Kohler J, Langvatn R. Icing events trigger range displacement in a high-arctic ungulate. Ecology 2010; 91:915-20. [PMID: 20426348 DOI: 10.1890/09-0056.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 56] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
Despite numerous studies of how climate change may affect life history of mammals, few have documented the direct impact of climate on behavior. The Arctic is currently warming, and rain-on-snow and thaw-freeze events leading to ice formation on the ground may increase both in frequency and spatial extent. This is in turn expected to be critical for the winter survival of arctic herbivores. Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus plathyrynchus) have small home ranges and may therefore be vulnerable to local "locked pasture" events (ice layers limit access to plant forage) due to ground-ice formation. When pastures are "locked," Svalbard reindeer are faced with the decision of staying and live off a diminishing fat store, or trying to escape beyond the unknown spatial borders of the ice. We demonstrate that Svalbard reindeer do the latter, as icing events cause an immediate increase in range displacement between 5-day observations. Population-level responses of previous icing events may therefore not accurately predict future responses if the spatial extent of icing increases. The impact of single events may be more severe if it exceeds the maximum movement distances, so that the spatial displacement strategy reported here no longer buffers climate effects.
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Affiliation(s)
- Audun Stien
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), Arctic Ecology Department, Polar Environmental Centre, N-9296 Tromsø, Norway.
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Tyler NJC. Climate, snow, ice, crashes, and declines in populations of reindeer and caribou (Rangifer tarandus L.). ECOL MONOGR 2010. [DOI: 10.1890/09-1070.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 80] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
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Pol MVD, Vindenes Y, Sæther BE, Engen S, Ens BJ, Oosterbeek K, Tinbergen JM. Effects of climate change and variability on population dynamics in a long-lived shorebird. Ecology 2010; 91:1192-204. [DOI: 10.1890/09-0410.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 114] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
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Post E, Forchhammer MC, Bret-Harte MS, Callaghan TV, Christensen TR, Elberling B, Fox AD, Gilg O, Hik DS, Høye TT, Ims RA, Jeppesen E, Klein DR, Madsen J, McGuire AD, Rysgaard S, Schindler DE, Stirling I, Tamstorf MP, Tyler NJC, van der Wal R, Welker J, Wookey PA, Schmidt NM, Aastrup P. Ecological dynamics across the Arctic associated with recent climate change. Science 2009; 325:1355-8. [PMID: 19745143 DOI: 10.1126/science.1173113] [Citation(s) in RCA: 480] [Impact Index Per Article: 32.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
At the close of the Fourth International Polar Year, we take stock of the ecological consequences of recent climate change in the Arctic, focusing on effects at population, community, and ecosystem scales. Despite the buffering effect of landscape heterogeneity, Arctic ecosystems and the trophic relationships that structure them have been severely perturbed. These rapid changes may be a bellwether of changes to come at lower latitudes and have the potential to affect ecosystem services related to natural resources, food production, climate regulation, and cultural integrity. We highlight areas of ecological research that deserve priority as the Arctic continues to warm.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eric Post
- Department of Biology, Penn State University, 208 Mueller Lab, University Park, PA 16802, USA.
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Post E, Brodie J, Hebblewhite M, Anders AD, Maier JAK, Wilmers CC. Global Population Dynamics and Hot Spots of Response to Climate Change. Bioscience 2009. [DOI: 10.1525/bio.2009.59.6.7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 48] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
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Turunen M, Soppela P, Kinnunen H, Sutinen ML, Martz F. Does climate change influence the availability and quality of reindeer forage plants? Polar Biol 2009. [DOI: 10.1007/s00300-009-0609-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 47] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
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