Modeling stress-induced responses: plasticity in continuous state space and gradual clonal evolution

Mathematical models of cancer and bacterial evolution have generally stemmed from a gene-centric framework, assuming clonal evolution via acquisition of resistance-conferring mutations and selection of their corresponding subpopulations. More recently, the role of phenotypic plasticity has been recognized and models accounting for phenotypic switching between discrete cell states (e.g., epithelial and mesenchymal) have been developed. However, seldom do models incorporate both plasticity and mutationally driven resistance, particularly when the state space is continuous and resistance evolves in a continuous fashion. In this paper, we develop a framework to model plastic and mutational mechanisms of acquiring resistance in a continuous gradual fashion. We use this framework to examine ways in which cancer and bacterial populations can respond to stress and consider implications for therapeutic strategies. Although we primarily discuss our framework in the context of cancer and bacteria, it applies broadly to any system capable of evolving via plasticity and genetic evolution.

Context-dependent insect predation pressure on an avian ectoparasite

Context dependence arises when ecological relationships vary with the conditions under which they are observed. Context dependence of interactions involving parasites is poorly known, even if it is key to understanding host-parasite relationships and food web dynamics. This paper investigates to which extent predation pressure on an avian ectoparasite (Carnus hemapterus) is context-dependent. Based on a predator-exclusion experiment, predation pressure on C. hemapterus pupae in the host's nest for 3 years, and its variation between habitat types are quantified. Variation in precipitation and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is also explored as a likely cause of context dependency. We hypothesize that predation pressure should fluctuate with such surrogates of food availability, so that inter-annual and intra-annual differences may emerge. The number of nests with significant reduction of pupae varied widely among years ranging from 24% to 75%. However, average pupae reduction in nests where a significant reduction occurred did not vary between years. No differences in predation rates between habitat types were detected. Precipitation and NDVI varied widely between years and NDVI was consistently lower around nests on cliffs than around nests on trees and farmhouses. Parallels were found between variation in predation pressure and precipitation/NDVI at a wide scale (highest predation the driest year, and much lower the 2 rainier ones), but not at the nest scale. This paper shows clear context-dependent insect predation pressure on an ectoparasite under natural conditions, and that such interaction changes in signs rather than magnitude between years. The causes for these variations require longer-term studies and/or well-designed, large-scale experiments.

Take me for a ride: Herbivores can facilitate plant reinvasions

Herbivores shape plant invasions through impacts on demography and dispersal, yet only demographic mechanisms are well understood. Although herbivores negatively impact demography by definition, they can affect dispersal either negatively (e.g., seed consumption), or positively (e.g., caching). Exploring the nuances of how herbivores influence spatial spread will improve the forecasting of plant movement on the landscape. Here, we aim to understand how herbivores impact how fast plant populations spread through varying impacts on plant demography and dispersal. We strive to determine whether, and under what conditions, we see net positive effects of herbivores, in order to find scenarios where herbivores can help to promote spread. We draw on classic invasion theory to develop a stage-structured integrodifference equation model that incorporates herbivore impacts on plant demography and dispersal. We simulate seven herbivore "syndromes" (combinations of demographic and/or dispersal effects) drawn from the literature to understand how increasing herbivore pressure alters plant spreading speed. We find that herbivores with solely negative effects on plant demography or dispersal always slow plant spreading speed, and that the speed slows monotonically as herbivore pressure increases. However, we also find that plant spreading speed can be hump shaped with respect to herbivore pressure: plants spread faster in the presence of herbivores (for low herbivore pressure) and then slower (for high herbivore pressure). This result is robust, occurring across all syndromes in which herbivores have a positive effect on plant dispersal, and is a sign that the positive effects of herbivores on dispersal can outweigh their negative effects on demography. For all syndromes we find that sufficiently high herbivore pressure results in population collapse. Thus, our findings show that herbivores can speed up or slow down plant spread. These insights allow for a greater understanding of how to slow invasions, facilitate native species recolonization, and shape range shifts with global change.

The changing dynamics of ant-tree cholla mutualisms along a desert urbanization gradient

Urbanization, among the most widespread and multifaceted anthropogenic change drivers, exerts strong influences on a diversity of ecological communities worldwide. We have begun to understand how urbanization affects species diversity, yet we still have limited knowledge about the ways that species interactions are altered by urbanization. We have an especially poor understanding of how urbanization influences stress-buffering mutualisms, despite the high levels of multivariate stress that urban organisms must overcome and the importance of these interactions to the fitness of many organisms. In this study, we investigated the effects of urbanization on a mutualism between tree cholla cacti (Cylindropuntia imbricata) and visiting ants. We first examined how plant size, ant species composition, and ant activity varied on C. imbricata across an urbanization gradient (urban, suburban, wild) in and around Albuquerque, NM. Ant species composition and activity varied significantly across the urbanization gradient, with ant communities from wildlands having the highest activity and the most dissimilar species composition compared to both suburban and urban sites. In contrast, plant size remained constant regardless of site type. We then experimentally assessed how nectar levels influenced ant aggressive encounters with proxy prey (Drosophila melanogaster larvae) on C. imbricata across urban and wild sites. Ants were more likely to discover, attack, and remove proxy prey in wild sites compared to urban sites; they also performed these behaviors more quickly in wild sites. Nectar supplementation had weaker effects on ant aggression than urbanization, but consistently increased the speed at which aggressive behaviors occurred. Future studies that examine nectar quality and herbivorous arthropod abundance may help explain why this strong difference in ant composition and aggression was not associated with lower plant fitness proxies (i.e. size traits). Nevertheless, this study provides unique insight into the growing body of work demonstrating that mutualisms vary significantly across urbanization gradients.

A Novel Spectral Index to Identify Cacti in the Sonoran Desert at Multiple Scales Using Multi-Sensor Hyperspectral Data Acquisitions

Accurate identification of cacti, whether seen as an indicator of ecosystem health or an invasive menace, is important. Technological improvements in hyperspectral remote sensing systems with high spatial resolutions make it possible to now monitor cacti around the world. Cacti produce a unique spectral signature because of their morphological and anatomical characteristics. We demonstrate in this paper that we can leverage a reflectance dip around 972 nm, due to cacti’s morphological structure, to distinguish cacti vegetation from non-cacti vegetation in a desert landscape. We also show the ability to calculate two normalized vegetation indices that highlight cacti. Furthermore, we explore the impacts of spatial resolution by presenting spectral signatures from cacti samples taken with a handheld field spectroradiometer, drone-based hyperspectral sensor, and aerial hyperspectral sensor. These cacti indices will help measure baseline levels of cacti around the world and examine changes due to climate, disturbance, and management influences.

Leaf traits mediate herbivory across a nitrogen gradient differently in extirpated vs. extant prairie species

Increasing nitrogen deposition threatens many grassland species with local extinction. In addition to the direct effects of nitrogen deposition, nitrogen can indirectly affect plant populations via phenotypic shifts in plant traits that influence plant susceptibility to herbivory. Here, I test how herbivory varies across an experimental nitrogen gradient and whether differences in susceptibility to herbivory might explain patterns of local species loss. Specifically, I examine how increasing nitrogen availability in a restored prairie influences leaf traits and subsequent herbivory (by leaf-chewers like insects/small mammals versus deer) and the severity of herbivore damage on confamiliar pairs of extirpated versus extant species from Michigan prairies. Nitrogen increased herbivory by both leaf-chewers and deer as well as herbivore damage (proportion of leaves damaged). Leaf hairiness and specific leaf area affected patterns of herbivory following nitrogen addition, although patterns varied between extirpated vs. extant taxa and herbivory type. Nitrogen increased leaf hairiness. At high levels of nitrogen addition, hairy extant plants experienced less herbivory and damage than smooth-leaved plants. In contrast, hairy extirpated plants were more likely to experience leaf-chewer herbivory. Extirpated plants with thin leaves (high specific leaf area) were less likely to experience leaf-chewer herbivory; the opposite was true for extant species. Generally, extant species experienced more herbivory than locally extirpated species, particularly at high levels of nitrogen addition, suggesting that increasing herbivory under nutrient addition likely does not influence extirpation in this system. This study suggests that trait-mediated responses to nitrogen addition and herbivory differ between extant and extirpated species.

Mammalian herbivores restrict the altitudinal range limits of alpine plants

Although rarely experimentally tested, biotic interactions have long been hypothesised to limit low-elevation range boundaries of species. We tested the effects of herbivory on three alpine-restricted plant species by transplanting plants below (novel), at the edge (limit), or in the centre (core) of their current elevational range and factorially fencing-out above- and belowground mammals. Herbivore damage was greater in range limit and novel habitats than in range cores. Exclosures increased plant biomass and reproduction more in novel habitats than in range cores, suggesting demographic costs of novel interactions with herbivores. We then used demographic models to project population growth rates, which increased 5-20% more under herbivore exclosure at range limit and novel sites than in core habitats. Our results identify mammalian herbivores as key drivers of the low-elevation range limits of alpine plants and indicate that upward encroachment of herbivores could trigger local extinctions by depressing plant population growth.

Lagged and dormant season climate better predict plant vital rates than climate during the growing season

Understanding the effects of climate on the vital rates (e.g., survival, development, reproduction) and dynamics of natural populations is a long-standing quest in ecology, with ever-increasing relevance in the face of climate change. However, linking climate drivers to demographic processes requires identifying the appropriate time windows during which climate influences vital rates. Researchers often do not have access to the long-term data required to test a large number of windows, and are thus forced to make a priori choices. In this study, we first synthesize the literature to assess current a priori choices employed in studies performed on 104 plant species that link climate drivers with demographic responses. Second, we use a sliding-window approach to investigate which combination of climate drivers and temporal window have the best predictive ability for vital rates of four perennial plant species that each have over a decade of demographic data (Helianthella quinquenervis, Frasera speciosa, Cylindriopuntia imbricata, and Cryptantha flava). Our literature review shows that most studies consider time windows in only the year preceding the measurement of the vital rate(s) of interest, and focus on annual or growing season temporal scales. In contrast, our sliding-window analysis shows that in only four out of 13 vital rates the selected climate drivers have time windows that align with, or are similar to, the growing season. For many vital rates, the best window lagged more than 1 year and up to 4 years before the measurement of the vital rate. Our results demonstrate that for the vital rates of these four species, climate drivers that are lagged or outside of the growing season are the norm. Our study suggests that considering climatic predictors that fall outside of the most recent growing season will improve our understanding of how climate affects population dynamics.

Diversity of Gall-Inducing Insects Associated With a Widely Distributed Tropical Tree Species: Testing the Environmental Stress Hypothesis

Abiotic factors can affect plant performance and cause stress, which in turn affects plant-herbivore interactions. The Environmental Stress Hypothesis (ESH) predicts that gall-inducing insect diversity will be greater on host plants that grow in stressful habitats. We tested this hypothesis, considering both historical and ecological scales, using the plant Copaifera langsdorffii Desf. (Fabaceae) as a model because it has a wide geographic distribution and is a super-host of gall-inducing insects. According to the ESH, we predicted that 1) on a historical scale, the diversity of gall-inducing insects will be higher in habitats with greater environmental stress and 2) on an ecological scale, gall-inducing insect diversity will be greater on plants that possess greater levels of foliar sclerophylly. We sampled gall-inducing insects on plants of C. langsdorffii in five sites with different levels of water and soil nutrient availability and separated from each other by a distance of up to 470 km. The composition, richness, and abundance of gall-inducing insects varied among study sites. Plants located in more stressful habitats had higher levels of foliar sclerophylly; but richness and abundance of gall-inducing insects were not affected by host plant sclerophylly. Habitat stress was a good predictor of gall-inducing insect diversity on a regional scale, thus corroborating the first prediction of the ESH. No relationship was found between plant sclerophylly and gall-inducing insect diversity within habitats. Therefore, on a local scale, we did not find support for our second prediction related to the ESH.

Biological control agent attack timing and population variability, but not density, best explain target weed density across an environmental gradient

Spatial variation in plant–herbivore interactions can be important in pest systems, particularly when insect herbivores are used as biological control agents to manage invasive plants. The geographic ranges of the invasive plant alligatorweed (Alternanthera philoxeroides) and its biological control agent the alligatorweed flea beetle (Agasicles hygrophila) do not completely overlap in the southeastern USA, producing spatial heterogeneity in interaction strength that may be related to latitude-correlated environmental gradients. We studied this system near the range margin of the alligatorweed flea beetle to test whether spatial variation in alligatorweed density was best explained by agent mean or maximum density, variability in agent density, agent attack timing, or a combination of biological control and environmental (i.e., weather) variables. The pattern that emerged was that mean agent and host densities were negatively and positively associated with latitude, respectively. Variability in agent density increased with latitude and was positively correlated with host density. We further discovered that agent first attack timing was negatively correlated with winter and spring temperatures and spring and summer precipitation, and positively correlated with seasonal temperature extremes, which was then directly influential on agent density and variability in density, and indirectly on host density. This study demonstrates that, contrary to common wisdom, weather-related timing of agent activity and population variability, but not agent mean density, contribute to the spatial heterogeneity observed in alligatorweed populations.

Accounting for stochasticity in demographic compensation along the elevational range of an alpine plant

Demographic compensation arises when vital rates change in opposite directions across populations, buffering the variation in population growth rates, and is a mechanism often invoked to explain the stability of species geographic ranges. However, studies on demographic compensation have disregarded the effects of temporal variation in vital rates and their temporal correlations, despite theoretical evidence that stochastic dynamics can affect population persistence in temporally varying environments. We carried out a seven-year-long demographic study on the perennial plant Arabis alpina (L.) across six populations encompassing most of its elevational range. We discovered demographic compensation in the form of negative correlations between the means of plant vital rates, but also between their temporal coefficients of variation, correlations and elasticities. Even if their contribution to demographic compensation was small, this highlights a previously overlooked, but potentially important, role of stochastic processes in stabilising population dynamics at range margins.

CAM plant expansion favored indirectly by asymmetric climate warming and increased rainfall variability

Recent observational evidence suggests that nighttime temperatures are increasing faster than daytime temperatures, while in some regions precipitation events are becoming less frequent and more intense. The combined ecological impacts of these climatic changes on crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) plants and their interactions with other functional groups (i.e., grass communities) remain poorly understood. Here we developed a growth chamber experiment to investigate how two CAM-grass communities in desert ecosystems of the southwestern United States and northern Mexico respond to asymmetric warming and increasing rainfall variability. Grasses generally showed competitive advantages over CAM plants with increasing rainfall variability under ambient temperature conditions. In contrast, asymmetric warming caused mortality of both grass species (Bouteloua eriopoda and Bouteloua curtipendula) in both rainfall treatments due to enhanced drought stress. Grass mortality indirectly favored CAM plants even though the biomass of both CAM species Cylindropuntia imbricata and Opuntia phaeacantha significantly decreased. The stem's volume-to-surface ratio of C. imbricata was significantly higher in mixture than in monoculture under ambient temperature (both P < 0.0014); however, the difference became insignificant under asymmetric warming (both P > 0.1625), suggesting that warming weakens the negative effects of interspecific competition on CAM plant growth. Our findings suggest that while the increase in intra-annual rainfall variability enhances grass productivity, asymmetric warming may lead to grass mortality, thereby indirectly favoring the expansion of co-existing CAM plants. This study provides novel experimental evidence showing how the ongoing changes in global warming and rainfall variability affect CAM-grass growth and interactions in dryland ecosystems.

The demographic effects of functional traits: an integral projection model approach reveals population-level consequences of reproduction-defence trade-offs

Quantitatively linking individual variation in functional traits to demography is a necessary step to advance our understanding of trait-based ecological processes. We constructed a population model for Asclepias syriaca to identify how functional traits affect vital rates and population growth and whether trade-offs in chemical defence and demography alter population growth. Plants with higher foliar cardenolides had lower fibre, cellulose and lignin levels, as well as decreased sexual and clonal reproduction. Average cardenolide concentrations had the strongest effect on population growth. In both the sexual and clonal pathway, the trade-off between reproduction and defence affected population growth. We found that both increasing the mean of the distribution of individual plant values for cardenolides and herbivory decreased population growth. However, increasing the variance in both defence and herbivory increased population growth. Functional traits can impact population growth and quantifying individual-level variation in traits should be included in assessments of population-level processes.

Altitude, habitat type and herbivore damage interact in their effects on plant population dynamics

Insects represent one of the most abundant groups of herbivores, and many of them have significant impacts on the dynamics of plant populations. As insects are very sensitive to changes in climatic conditions, we hypothesize that their effects on plant population dynamics will depend on climatic conditions. Knowledge of the variation in herbivore effects on plant population dynamics is, however, still rather sparse. We studied population dynamics and herbivore damage at the individual plant level of Salvia nubicola along a wide altitudinal gradient representing a range of climatic conditions. Using integral projection models, we estimated the effect of changes in herbivore pressure on plant populations in different climates and habitat types. Since we recorded large differences in the extent of herbivore damage along the altitudinal gradient, we expected that the performance of plants from different altitudes would be affected to different degrees by herbivores. Indeed, we found that populations from low altitudes were better able to withstand increased herbivore damage, while populations from high altitudes were suppressed by herbivores. However, the pattern described above was evident only in populations from open habitats. In forest habitats, the differences in population dynamics between low and high altitudes were largely diminished. The effects of herbivores on plants from different altitudes were thus largely habitat specific. Our results indicate potential problems for plant populations from high altitudes in open habitats because of increased herbivore damage. However, forest habitats may provide refuges for the plants at these high altitudes.

Population Variation, Environmental Gradients, and the Evolutionary Ecology of Plant Defense against Herbivory

A central tenet of plant defense theory is that adaptation to the abiotic environment sets the template for defense strategies, imposing a trade-off between plant growth and defense. Yet this trade-off, commonly found among species occupying divergent resource environments, may not occur across populations of single species. We hypothesized that more favorable climates and higher levels of herbivory would lead to increases in growth and defense across plant populations. We evaluated whether plant growth and defense traits covaried across 18 populations of showy milkweed (Asclepias speciosa) inhabiting an east-west climate gradient spanning 25° of longitude. A suite of traits impacting defense (e.g., latex, cardenolides), growth (e.g., size), or both (e.g., specific leaf area [SLA], trichomes) were measured in natural populations and in a common garden, allowing us to evaluate plastic and genetically based variation in these traits. In natural populations, herbivore pressure increased toward warmer sites with longer growing seasons. Growth and defense traits showed strong clinal patterns and were positively correlated. In a common garden, clines with climatic origin were recapitulated only for defense traits. Correlations between growth and defense traits were also weaker and more negative in the common garden than in the natural populations. Thus, our data suggest that climatically favorable sites likely facilitate the evolution of greater defense at minimal costs to growth, likely because of increased resource acquisition.

Increased consumer density reduces the strength of neighborhood effects in a model system

An individual's susceptibility to attack can be influenced by conspecific and heterospecifics neighbors. Predicting how these neighborhood effects contribute to population-level processes such as competition and evolution requires an understanding of how the strength of neighborhood effects is modified by changes in the abundances of both consumers and neighboring resource species. We show for the first time that consumer density can interact with the density and frequency of neighboring organisms to determine the magnitude of neighborhood effects. We used the bean beetle, Callosobruchus maculatus, and two of its host beans, Vigna unguiculata and V. radiata, to perform a response-surface experiment with a range of resource densities and three consumer densities. At low beetle density, damage to beans was reduced with increasing conspecific density (i.e., resource dilution) and damage to the less preferred host, V. unguiculata, was reduced with increasing V. radiata frequency (i.e., frequency-dependent associational resistance). As beetle density increased, however, neighborhood effects were reduced; at the highest beetle densities neither focal nor neighboring resource density nor frequency influenced damage. These findings illustrate the importance of consumer density in mediating indirect effects among resources, and suggest that accounting for consumer density may improve our ability to predict population-level outcomes of neighborhood effects and our use of them in applications such as mixed-crop pest management.

On the possible role of nonreproductive traits for the evolution of unisexuality: Life-history variation among males, females, and hermaphrodites in Opuntia robusta (Cactaceae)

In angiosperms, dioecy has arisen in 871-5,000 independent events, distributed in approximately 43% of the flowering families. The reproductive superiority of unisexuals has been the favorite explanation for the evolution of separate sexes. However, in several instances, the observed reproductive performance of unisexuals, if any, does not seem to compensate for the loss of one of the sex functions. The involvement of fitness components not directly associated with reproduction is a plausible hypothesis that has received little attention. Life-history traits recently recognized as predictors of plant performance were compared among males, females, and hermaphrodites of a rare trioecious Opuntia robusta population in the field, using the cladode as the study unit. Cladode mortality by domestic herbivores was common and higher in females and hermaphrodites than in males. Males, females, or both displayed lower shrinkage and higher rates of survival, growth, and reproductive frequency than hermaphrodites. Unisexuals simultaneously outperformed hermaphrodites in demographic traits known to compete for common limiting resources, such as the acceleration of reproductive maturation (progenesis) and survival. A meta-analysis combining the outcomes of each of the analyzed life-history traits revealed a tendency of males (d++ = 1.03) and females (d++ = 0.93) to outperform hermaphrodites in presumably costly demographic options. Clonality is induced by human or domestic animal plant sectioning; and males and females highly exceeded hermaphrodites in their clonality potential by a factor of 8.3 and 5.3, respectively. The performances of unisexuals in the analyzed life-history traits may enhance their reproductive potential in the long run and their clonality potential and could explain the observed increase of unisexuality in the population. Life-history traits can be crucial for the evolution of unisexuality, but their impact appears to be habitat specific and may involve broad ontogenetic changes.

Low interannual precipitation has a greater negative effect than seedling herbivory on the population dynamics of a short-lived shrub, Schiedea obovata

Climate projections forecast more extreme interannual climate variability over time, with an increase in the severity and duration of extreme drought and rainfall events. Based on bioclimatic envelope models, it is projected that changing precipitation patterns will drastically alter the spatial distributions and density of plants and be a primary driver of biodiversity loss. However, many other underlying mechanisms can impact plant vital rates (i.e., survival, growth, and reproduction) and population dynamics. In this study, we developed a size-dependent integral projection model (IPM) to evaluate how interannual precipitation and mollusk herbivory influence the dynamics of a Hawaii endemic short-lived shrub, Schiedea obovata (Caryophyllaceae). Assessing how wet season precipitation effects population dynamics it critical, as it is the timeframe when most of the foliar growth occurs, plants flower and fruit, and seedlings establish. Temporal variation in wet season precipitation had a greater effect than mollusk herbivory on S. obovata population growth rate λ, and the impact of interannual precipitation on vital rates shifted across plant ontogeny. Furthermore, wet season precipitation influenced multiple vital rates in contrasting ways and the effect of precipitation on the survival of larger vegetative and reproductively mature individuals contributed the most to variation in the population growth rate. Among all combination of wet season precipitation and herbivory intensities, the only scenario that led to a growing population was when high wet precipitation was associated with low herbivory. Our study highlights the importance of evaluating how abiotic factors and plant-consumer interactions influence an organism across its life cycle to fully understand the underpinning mechanisms that structure its spatial and temporal distribution and abundance. Our results also illustrate that for short-lived species, like S. obovata, seedling herbivory can have less of an effect on the dynamics of plant populations than decreased interannual precipitation.

Aridity weakens population-level effects of multiple species interactions on Hibiscus meyeri

Predicting how species' abundances and ranges will shift in response to climate change requires a mechanistic understanding of how multiple factors interact to limit population growth. Both abiotic stress and species interactions can limit populations and potentially set range boundaries, but we have a poor understanding of when and where each is most critical. A commonly cited hypothesis, first proposed by Darwin, posits that abiotic factors (e.g., temperature, precipitation) are stronger determinants of range boundaries in apparently abiotically stressful areas ("stress" indicates abiotic factors that reduce population growth), including desert, polar, or high-elevation environments, whereas species interactions (e.g., herbivory, competition) play a stronger role in apparently less stressful environments. We tested a core tenet of this hypothesis-that population growth rate is more strongly affected by species interactions in less stressful areas-using experimental manipulations of species interactions affecting a common herbaceous plant, Hibiscus meyeri (Malvaceae), across an aridity gradient in a semiarid African savanna. Population growth was more strongly affected by four distinct species interactions (competition with herbaceous and shrubby neighbors, herbivory, and pollination) in less stressful mesic areas than in more stressful arid sites. However, contrary to common assumptions, this effect did not arise because of greater density or diversity of interacting species in less stressful areas, but rather because aridity reduced sensitivity of population growth to these interactions. Our work supports classic predictions about the relative strength of factors regulating population growth across stress gradients, but suggests that this pattern results from a previously unappreciated mechanism that may apply to many species worldwide.

Native insect herbivory overwhelms context dependence to limit complex invasion dynamics of exotic weeds

Understanding the role of consumers in density-dependent plant population dynamics is a long-standing goal in ecology. However, the generality of herbivory effects across heterogeneous landscapes is poorly understood due to the pervasive influence of context-dependence. We tested effects of native insect herbivory on the population dynamics of an exotic thistle, Cirsium vulgare, in a field experiment replicated across eight sites in eastern Nebraska. Using hierarchical Bayesian analysis and density-dependent population models, we found potential for explosive low-density population growth (λ > 5) and complex density fluctuations under herbivore exclusion. However, herbivore access drove population decline (λ < 1), suppressing complex fluctuations. While plant-herbivore interaction outcomes are famously context-dependent, we demonstrated that herbivores suppress potentially invasive populations throughout our study region, and this qualitative outcome is insensitive to environmental context. Our novel use of Bayesian demographic modelling shows that native insect herbivores consistently prevent hard-to-predict fluctuations of weeds in environments otherwise susceptible to invasion.

Impacts of Insect Herbivores on Plant Populations

Apparent feeding damage by insects on plants is often slight. Thus, the influences of insect herbivores on plant populations are likely minor. The role of insects on host-plant populations can be elucidated via several methods: stage-structured life tables of plant populations manipulated by herbivore exclusion and seed-addition experiments, tests of the enemy release hypothesis, studies of the effects of accidentally and intentionally introduced insect herbivores, and observations of the impacts of insect species that show outbreak population dynamics. These approaches demonstrate that some, but not all, insect herbivores influence plant population densities. At times, insect-feeding damage kills plants, but more often, it reduces plant size, growth, and seed production. Plant populations for which seed germination is site limited will not respond at the population level to reduced seed production. Insect herbivores can influence rare plant species and need to be considered in conservation programs. Alterations due to climate change in the distributions of insect herbivores indicate the possibility of new influences on host plants. Long-term studies are required to show if density-related insect behavior stabilizes plant populations or if environmental variation drives most temporal fluctuations in plant densities. Finally, insects can influence plant populations and communities through changing the diversity of nonhost species, modifying nutrient fluxes, and rejuvenating over mature forests.

Context-dependent outcomes in a reproductive mutualism between two freshwater fish species

The development of encompassing general models of ecology is precluded by underrepresentation of certain taxa and systems. Models predicting context‐dependent outcomes of biotic interactions have been tested using plants and bacteria, but their applicability to higher taxa is largely unknown.

We examined context dependency in a reproductive mutualism between two stream fish species: mound nest‐building bluehead chub Nocomis leptocephalus and mountain redbelly dace Chrosomus oreas, which often uses N. leptocephalus nests for spawning. We hypothesized that increased predator density and decreased substrate availability would increase the propensity of C. oreas to associate with N. leptocephalus and decrease reproductive success of both species.

In a large‐scale in situ experiment, we manipulated egg predator density and presence of both symbionts (biotic context), and replicated the experiment in habitats containing high‐ and low‐quality spawning substrate (abiotic context).

Contradictory to our first hypothesis, we observed that C. oreas did not spawn without its host. The interaction outcome switched from commensalistic to mutualistic with changing abiotic and biotic contexts, although the net outcome was mutualistic.

The results of this study yielded novel insight into how context dependency operates in vertebrate mutualisms. Although the dilution effect provided by C. oreas positively influenced reproductive success of N. leptocephalus, it was not enough to overcome both egg predation and poor spawning habitat quality. Outcomes of the interaction may be ultimately determined by associate density. Studies of context dependency in vertebrate systems require detailed knowledge of species life‐history traits.

Herbivory strongly influences among-population variation in reproductive output of Lythrum salicaria in its native range

Herbivory can negatively affect several components of plant reproduction. Yet, because of a lack of experimental studies involving multiple populations, the extent to which differences in herbivory contribute to among-population variation in plant reproductive success is poorly known. We experimentally determined the effects of insect herbivory on reproductive output in nine natural populations of the perennial herb Lythrum salicaria along a disturbance gradient in an archipelago in northern Sweden, and we quantified among-population differentiation in resistance to herbivory in a common-garden experiment in the same area. The intensity of leaf herbivory varied >500-fold and mean female reproductive success >400-fold among the study populations. The intensity of herbivory was lowest in populations subject to strong disturbance from ice and wave action. Experimental removal of insect herbivores showed that the effect of herbivory on female reproductive success was correlated with the intensity of herbivory and that differences in insect herbivory could explain much of the among-population variation in the proportion of plants flowering and seed production. Population differentiation in resistance to herbivory was limited. The results demonstrate that the intensity of herbivory is a major determinant of flowering and seed output in L. salicaria, but that differences in herbivory are not associated with differences in plant resistance at the spatial scale examined. They further suggest that the physical disturbance regime may strongly influence the performance and abundance of perennial herbs and patterns of selection not only because of its effect on interspecific competition, but also because of effects on interactions with specialized herbivores.

Where and When do Species Interactions Set Range Limits?

A long-standing theory, originating with Darwin, suggests that abiotic forces set species range limits at high latitude, high elevation, and other abiotically 'stressful' areas, while species interactions set range limits in apparently more benign regions. This theory is of considerable importance for both basic and applied ecology, and while it is often assumed to be a ubiquitous pattern, it has not been clearly defined or broadly tested. We review tests of this idea and dissect how the strength of species interactions must vary across stress gradients to generate the predicted pattern. We conclude by suggesting approaches to better test this theory, which will deepen our understanding of the forces that determine species ranges and govern responses to climate change.

Aggregation of Cricket Activity in Response to Resource Addition Increases Local Diversity

Crickets are often found feeding on fallen fruits among forest litter. Fruits and other sugar-rich resources are not homogeneously distributed, nor are they always available. We therefore expect that crickets dwelling in forest litter have a limited supply of sugar-rich resource, and will perceive this and displace towards resource-supplemented sites. Here we evaluate how sugar availability affects cricket species richness and abundance in old-growth Atlantic forest by spraying sugarcane syrup on leaf litter, simulating increasing availability, and collecting crickets via pitfall trapping. We found an asymptotic positive association between resource addition and species richness, and an interaction between resource addition and species identity on cricket abundance, which indicates differential effects of resource addition among cricket species. Our results indicate that 12 of the 13 cricket species present in forest litter are maintained at low densities by resource scarcity; this highlights sugar-rich resource as a short-term driver of litter cricket community structure in tropical forests. When resource was experimentally increased, species richness increased due to behavioral displacement. We present evidence that the density of many species is limited by resource scarcity and, when resources are added, behavioral displacement promotes increased species packing and alters species composition. Further, our findings have technical applicability for increasing sampling efficiency of local cricket diversity in studies aiming to estimate species richness, but with no regard to local environmental drivers or species-abundance characteristics.

Individual heterogeneity in life histories and eco-evolutionary dynamics

Individual heterogeneity in life history shapes eco-evolutionary processes, and unobserved heterogeneity can affect demographic outputs characterising life history and population dynamical properties. Demographic frameworks like matrix models or integral projection models represent powerful approaches to disentangle mechanisms linking individual life histories and population-level processes. Recent developments have provided important steps towards their application to study eco-evolutionary dynamics, but so far individual heterogeneity has largely been ignored. Here, we present a general demographic framework that incorporates individual heterogeneity in a flexible way, by separating static and dynamic traits (discrete or continuous). First, we apply the framework to derive the consequences of ignoring heterogeneity for a range of widely used demographic outputs. A general conclusion is that besides the long-term growth rate lambda, all parameters can be affected. Second, we discuss how the framework can help advance current demographic models of eco-evolutionary dynamics, by incorporating individual heterogeneity. For both applications numerical examples are provided, including an empirical example for pike. For instance, we demonstrate that predicted demographic responses to climate warming can be reversed by increased heritability. We discuss how applications of this demographic framework incorporating individual heterogeneity can help answer key biological questions that require a detailed understanding of eco-evolutionary dynamics.

Predicting changes in the distribution and abundance of species under environmental change

Environmental changes are expected to alter both the distribution and the abundance of organisms. A disproportionate amount of past work has focused on distribution only, either documenting historical range shifts or predicting future occurrence patterns. However, simultaneous predictions of abundance and distribution across landscapes would be far more useful. To critically assess which approaches represent advances towards the goal of joint predictions of abundance and distribution, we review recent work on changing distributions and on effects of environmental drivers on single populations. Several methods have been used to predict changing distributions. Some of these can be easily modified to also predict abundance, but others cannot. In parallel, demographers have developed a much better understanding of how changing abiotic and biotic drivers will influence growth rate and abundance in single populations. However, this demographic work has rarely taken a landscape perspective and has largely ignored the effects of intraspecific density. We advocate a synthetic approach in which population models accounting for both density dependence and effects of environmental drivers are used to make integrated predictions of equilibrium abundance and distribution across entire landscapes. Such predictions would constitute an important step forward in assessing the ecological consequences of environmental changes.

Interactions between a pollinating seed predator and its host plant: the role of environmental context within a population

Plant-insect interactions often are important for plant reproduction, but the outcome of these interactions may vary with environmental context. Pollinating seed predators have positive and negative effects on host plant reproduction, and the interaction outcome is predicted to vary with density or abundance of the partners. We studied the interaction between Silene stellata, an herbaceous perennial, and Hadena ectypa, its specialized pollinating seed predator. Silene stellata is only facultatively dependent upon H. ectypa for pollination because other nocturnal moth co-pollinators are equally effective at pollen transfer. We hypothesized that for plants without conspecific neighbors, H. ectypa would have higher visitation rates compared to co-pollinators, and the plants would experience lower levels of H. ectypa pollen deposition. We predicted similar oviposition throughout the study site but greater H. ectypa predation in the area without conspecific neighbors compared to plants embedded in a naturally high density area. We found that H. ectypa had consistently higher visitation than moth co-pollinators in all host plant contexts. However, H. ectypa pollinator importance declined in areas with low conspecific density because of reduced pollen deposition, resulting in lower seed set. Conversely, oviposition was similar across the study site independent of host plant density. Greater likelihood of very high fruit predation combined with lower pollination by H. ectypa resulted in reduced S. stellata female reproductive success in areas with low conspecific density. Our results demonstrate local context dependency of the outcomes of pollinating seed predator interactions with conspecific host plant density within a population.

Building integral projection models: a user's guide

In order to understand how changes in individual performance (growth, survival or reproduction) influence population dynamics and evolution, ecologists are increasingly using parameterized mathematical models. For continuously structured populations, where some continuous measure of individual state influences growth, survival or reproduction, integral projection models (IPMs) are commonly used. We provide a detailed description of the steps involved in constructing an IPM, explaining how to: (i) translate your study system into an IPM; (ii) implement your IPM; and (iii) diagnose potential problems with your IPM. We emphasize how the study organism's life cycle, and the timing of censuses, together determine the structure of the IPM kernel and important aspects of the statistical analysis used to parameterize an IPM using data on marked individuals. An IPM based on population studies of Soay sheep is used to illustrate the complete process of constructing, implementing and evaluating an IPM fitted to sample data. We then look at very general approaches to parameterizing an IPM, using a wide range of statistical techniques (e.g. maximum likelihood methods, generalized additive models, nonparametric kernel density estimators). Methods for selecting models for parameterizing IPMs are briefly discussed. We conclude with key recommendations and a brief overview of applications that extend the basic model. The online Supporting Information provides commented R code for all our analyses.

Community and Ecosystem Responses to Elevational Gradients: Processes, Mechanisms, and Insights for Global Change

Community structure and ecosystem processes often vary along elevational gradients. Their responses to elevation are commonly driven by changes in temperature, and many community- and ecosystem-level variables therefore frequently respond similarly to elevation across contrasting gradients. There are also many exceptions, sometimes because other factors such as precipitation can also vary with elevation. Given this complexity, our capacity to predict when and why the same variable responds differently among disparate elevational gradients is often limited. Furthermore, there is utility in using elevational gradients for understanding community and ecosystem responses to global climate change at much larger spatial and temporal scales than is possible through conventional ecological experiments. However, future studies that integrate elevational gradient approaches with experimental manipulations will provide powerful information that can improve predictions of climate change impacts within and across ecosystems.

Avoiding unintentional eviction from integral projection models

Integral projection models (IPMs) are increasingly being applied to study size-structured populations. Here we call attention to a potential problem in their construction that can have important consequences for model results. IPMs are implemented using an approximating matrix and bounded size range. Individuals near the size limits can be unknowingly "evicted" from the model because their predicted future size is outside the range. We provide simple measures for the magnitude of eviction and the sensitivity of the population growth rate (lambda) to eviction, allowing modelers to assess the severity of the problem in their IPM. For IPMs of three plant species, we found that eviction occurred in all cases and caused underestimation of the population growth rate (lambda) relative to eviction-free models; it is likely that other models are similarly affected. Models with frequent eviction should be modified because eviction is only possible when size transitions are badly mis-specified. We offer several solutions to eviction problems, but we emphasize that the modeler must choose the most appropriate solution based on an understanding of why eviction occurs in the first place. We recommend testing IPMs for eviction problems and resolving them, so that population dynamics are modeled more accurately.

Insect herbivory and propagule pressure influence Cirsium vulgare invasiveness across the landscape

A current challenge in ecology is to better understand the magnitude, variation, and interaction in the factors that limit the invasiveness of exotic species. We conducted a factorial experiment involving herbivore manipulation (insecticide-in-water vs. water-only control) and seven densities of introduced nonnative Cirsium vulgare (bull thistle) seed. The experiment was repeated with two seed cohorts at eight grassland sites uninvaded by C. vulgare in the central Great Plains, USA. Herbivory by native insects significantly reduced thistle seedling density, causing the largest reductions in density at the highest propagule inputs. The magnitude of this herbivore effect varied widely among sites and between cohort years. The combination of herbivory and lower propagule pressure increased the rate at which new C. vulgare populations failed to establish during the initial stages of invasion. This experiment demonstrates that the interaction between biotic resistance by native insects, propagule pressure, and spatiotemporal variation in their effects were crucial to the initial invasion by this Eurasian plant in the western tallgrass prairie.

Postdispersal seed predation limits the abundance of a long-lived perennial forb (Lithospermum ruderale)

Loss of seeds to consumers is common in plant communities, but the degree to which these losses influence plant abundance or population growth is often unclear. This is particularly the case for postdispersal seed predation by rodents, as most studies of rodent seed predation have focused on the sources of spatiotemporal variation in seed loss but not quantified the population consequences of this loss. In previous work we showed that seed predation by deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) substantially reduced seedling recruitment and establishment of Lithospermum ruderale (Boraginaceae), a long-lived perennial forb. To shed light on how rodent seed predation and the near-term effects on plant recruitment might influence longer-term patterns of L. ruderale population growth, we combined experimental results with demographic data in stage-based population models. Model outputs revealed that rodent seed predation had a significant impact on L. ruderale population growth rate (lambda). With the removal of postdispersal seed predation, the projected population growth rates increased between 0.06 and 0.12, depending on site (mean deltalambda across sites = 0.08). Seed predation shifted the projected stable stage distribution of populations from one with a high proportion of young plants to one in which larger adult size classes dominate. Elasticities of vital rates also changed, with germination and growth of seedlings and young plants becoming more important with the removal of seed predation. Simulations varying the magnitude of seed predation pressure while holding other vital rates constant showed that seed predation could lower lambda even if only 40% of available seeds were consumed. These results demonstrate that rodent granivory can be a potent force limiting the abundance of a long-lived perennial forb.

Cryptic herbivores mediate the strength and form of ungulate impacts on a long-lived savanna tree

Plant populations are regulated by a diverse array of herbivores that impose demographic filters throughout their life cycle. Few studies, however, simultaneously quantify the impacts of multiple herbivore guilds on the lifetime performance or population growth rate of plants. In African savannas, large ungulates (such as elephants) are widely regarded as important drivers of woody plant population dynamics, while the potential impacts of smaller, more cryptic herbivores (such as rodents) have largely been ignored. We combined a large-scale ungulate exclusion experiment with a five-year manipulation of rodent densities to quantify the impacts of three herbivore guilds (wild ungulates, domestic cattle, and rodents) on all life stages of a widespread savanna tree. We utilized demographic modeling to reveal the overall role of each guild in regulating tree population dynamics, and to elucidate the importance of different demographic hurdles in driving population growth under contrasting consumer communities. We found that wild ungulates dramatically reduced population growth, shifting the population trajectory from increase to decline, but that the mechanisms driving these effects were strongly mediated by rodents. The impact of wild ungulates on population growth was predominantly driven by their negative effect on tree reproduction when rodents were excluded, and on adult tree survival when rodents were present. By limiting seedling survival, rodents also reduced population growth; however, this effect was strongly dampened where wild ungulates were present. We suggest that these complex interactions between disparate consumer guilds can have important consequences for the population demography of long-lived species, and that the effects of a single consumer group are often likely to vary dramatically depending on the larger community in which interactions are embedded.