An evaluation of the effect of recent temperature variability on the prediction of coral bleaching events

Experimental coral reef communities transform yet persist under mitigated future ocean warming and acidification

Coral reefs are among the most sensitive ecosystems affected by ocean warming and acidification, and are predicted to collapse over the next few decades. Reefs are predicted to shift from net accreting calcifier-dominated systems with exceptionally high biodiversity to net eroding algal-dominated systems with dramatically reduced biodiversity. Here, we present a two-year experimental study examining the responses of entire mesocosm coral reef communities to warming (+2 °C), acidification (-0.2 pH units), and combined future ocean (+2 °C, -0.2 pH) treatments. Contrary to modeled projections, we show that under future ocean conditions, these communities shift structure and composition yet persist as novel calcifying ecosystems with high biodiversity. Our results suggest that if climate change is limited to Paris Climate Agreement targets, coral reefs could persist in an altered state rather than collapse.

Seasonal Proteome Variations in Orbicella faveolata Reveal Molecular Thermal Stress Adaptations

Although seasonal water temperatures typically fluctuate by less than 4 °C across most tropical reefs, sustained heat stress with an increase of even 1 °C can alter and destabilize metabolic and physiological coral functions, leading to losses of coral reefs worldwide. The Caribbean region provides a natural experimental design to study how corals respond physiologically throughout the year. While characterized by warm temperatures and precipitation, there is a significant seasonal component with relative cooler and drier conditions during the months of January to February and warmer and wetter conditions during September and October. We conducted a comparative abundance of differentially expressed proteins with two contrasting temperatures during the cold and warm seasons of 2014 and 2015 in Orbicella faveolata, one of the most important and affected reef-building corals of the Caribbean. All presented proteoforms (42) were found to be significant in our proteomics differential expression analysis and classified based on their gene ontology. The results were accomplished by a combination of two-dimensional gel electrophoresis (2DE) to separate and visualize proteins and mass spectrometry (MS) for protein identification. To validate the differentially expressed proteins of Orbicella faveolata at the transcription level, qRT-PCR was performed. Our data indicated that a 3.1 °C increase in temperature in O. faveolata between the cold and warm seasons in San Cristobal and Enrique reefs of southwestern Puerto Rico was enough to affect the expression of a significant number of proteins associated with oxidative and heat stress responses, metabolism, immunity, and apoptosis. This research extends our knowledge into the mechanistic response of O. faveolata to mitigate thermal seasonal temperature variations in coral reefs.

Optimized spatial and temporal pattern for coral bleaching heat stress alerts for China's coral reefs

Most studies on coral bleaching alerts use common Degree Heating Week (DHW) thresholds; however, these may underestimate historical patterns of heat stress for coral reef ecosystems. Taking an optimized DHW threshold for coral bleaching alerts for Coral Reef Watch (CRW) and Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD) products, we analyzed the precise spatial and temporal pattern of heat stress on China's coral reefs from 2010 to 2021 in the South China Sea (SCS) and the Beibu Gulf (BG). We compared acute heat stress using common and optimized thresholds. Results indicated that the ocean warming rate in 2010-2021 was approximately 0.43 ± 0.22 °C/10a, showing a significant increase in the northern SCS and the BG. More severe bleaching events were predicted by the optimized thresholds and the high-frequency areas were mainly in the northern SCS. The number and intensity of years with severe heat stress anomalies was in the order 2020 > 2014 > 2010 > 2015. Heat stress duration was the longest in the Xisha Islands among offshore archipelagos, and longest in 2020-2021 in Weizhou Island in BG in the relative high-latitude inshore reefs. These abnormal events were mainly caused by El Niño, but La Niña was also involved in 2020.

Study of the bleaching alert capability of the CRW and CoRTAD coral bleaching heat stress products in China's coral reefs

Coral bleaching heat stress products provide real-time and rapid coral bleaching alerts for coral reefs globally. However, geographical variations in the alert accuracy of multi-source coral bleaching heat stress products exist. Taking the coral reefs in the South China Sea (SCS) as the study area, we evaluated and improved the coral bleaching alert capabilities of two coral bleaching heat stress products: Coral Reef Watch (CRW) and Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD). Using in situ coral bleaching survey data and evaluation indicators, the optimized thresholds of degree heating weeks (DHWs) for coral bleaching alerts were determined. The results in the SCS indicated that, first, CRW was better than CoRTAD for coral bleaching event alerts. However, both products underestimated coral bleaching events using the common DHW thresholds of 4°C-weeks and 8°C-weeks. Second, the DHW optimized threshold for CRW was 3.32°C-weeks for coral bleaching event alerts and 4.52°C-weeks for severe coral bleaching event alerts. For CoRTAD products, the DHW optimized threshold was 2.36°C-weeks for coral bleaching event alerts and 4.14°C-weeks for severe coral bleaching event alerts. This study proposed a method to evaluate and optimize the alert capability of multi-source coral bleaching heat stress products, which can provide more accurate basic data for coral reef ecosystem health assessment and contribute to global coral reef ecosystem protection and restoration.

Detecting 2020 Coral Bleaching Event in the Northwest Hainan Island Using CoralTemp SST and Sentinel-2B MSI Imagery

In recent years, coral reef ecosystems have been affected by global climate change and human factors, resulting in frequent coral bleaching events. A severe coral bleaching event occurred in the northwest of Hainan Island, South China Sea, in 2020. In this study, we used the CoralTemp sea surface temperature (SST) and Sentinel-2B imagery to detect the coral bleaching event. From 31 May to 3 October, the average SST of the study area was 31.01 °C, which is higher than the local bleaching warning threshold value of 30.33 °C. In the difference images of 26 July and 4 September, a wide range of coral bleaching was found. According to the temporal variation in single band reflectance, the development process of bleaching is consistent with the changes in coral bleaching thermal alerts. The results show that the thermal stress level is an effective parameter for early warning of large-scale coral bleaching. High-resolution difference images can be used to detect the extent of coral bleaching. The combination of the two methods can provide better support for coral protection and research.

Genotype-Environment mismatch of kelp forests under climate change

Climate change is increasingly impacting ecosystems globally. Understanding adaptive genetic diversity and whether it will keep pace with projected climatic change is necessary to assess species' vulnerability and design efficient mitigation strategies such as assisted adaptation. Kelp forests are the foundations of temperate reefs globally but are declining in many regions due to climate stress. A lack of knowledge of kelp's adaptive genetic diversity hinders assessment of vulnerability under extant and future climates. Using 4245 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), we characterized patterns of neutral and putative adaptive genetic diversity for the dominant kelp in the southern hemisphere (Ecklonia radiata) from ~1000 km of coastline off Western Australia. Strong population structure and isolation-by-distance was underpinned by significant signatures of selection related to temperature and light. Gradient forest analysis of temperature-linked SNPs under selection revealed a strong association with mean annual temperature range, suggesting adaptation to local thermal environments. Critically, modelling revealed that predicted climate-mediated temperature changes will probably result in high genomic vulnerability via a mismatch between current and future predicted genotype-environment relationships such that kelp forests off Western Australia will need to significantly adapt to keep pace with projected climate change. Proactive management techniques such as assisted adaptation to boost resilience may be required to secure the future of these kelp forests and the immense ecological and economic values they support.

Thermal acclimation of tropical coral reef fishes to global heat waves

As climate-driven heat waves become more frequent and intense, there is increasing urgency to understand how thermally sensitive species are responding. Acute heating events lasting days to months may elicit acclimation responses to improve performance and survival. However, the coordination of acclimation responses remains largely unknown for most stenothermal species. We documented the chronology of 18 metabolic and cardiorespiratory changes that occur in the gills, blood, spleen, and muscles when tropical coral reef fishes are thermally stressed (+3.0°C above ambient). Using representative coral reef fishes (Caesio cuning and Cheilodipterus quinquelineatus) separated by >100 million years of evolution and with stark differences in major life-history characteristics (i.e. lifespan, habitat use, mobility, etc.), we show that exposure duration illicited coordinated responses in 13 tissue and organ systems over 5 weeks. The onset and duration of biomarker responses differed between species, with C. cuning – an active, mobile species – initiating acclimation responses to unavoidable thermal stress within the first week of heat exposure; conversely, C. quinquelineatus – a sessile, territorial species – exhibited comparatively reduced acclimation responses that were delayed through time. Seven biomarkers, including red muscle citrate synthase and lactate dehydrogenase activities, blood glucose and hemoglobin concentrations, spleen somatic index, and gill lamellar perimeter and width, proved critical in evaluating acclimation progression and completion, as these provided consistent evaluation of thermal responses across species.

Considering the rates of growth in two taxa of coral across Pacific islands

Reef-building coral taxa demonstrate considerable flexibility and diversity in reproduction and growth mechanisms. Corals take advantage of this flexibility to increase or decrease size through clonal expansion and loss of live tissue area (i.e. via reproduction and mortality of constituent polyps). The biological lability of reef-building corals may be expected to map onto varying patterns of demography across environmental contexts which can contribute to geographic variation in population dynamics. Here we explore the patterns of growth of two common coral taxa, corymbose Pocillopora and massive Porites, across seven islands in the central and south Pacific. The islands span a natural gradient of environmental conditions, including a range of pelagic primary production, a metric linked to the relative availability of inorganic nutrients and heterotrophic resources for mixotrophic corals, and sea surface temperature and thermal histories. Over a multi-year sampling interval, most coral colonies experienced positive growth (greater planar area of live tissue in second relative to first time point), though the distributions of growth varied across islands. Island-level median growth did not relate simply to estimated pelagic primary productivity or temperature. However, at locations that experienced an extreme warm-water event during the sampling interval, most Porites colonies experienced net losses of live tissue and nearly all Pocillopora colonies experienced complete mortality. While descriptive statistics of demographics offer valuable insights into trends and variability in colony change through time, simplified models predicting growth patterns based on summarized oceanographic metrics appear inadequate for robust demographic prediction. We propose that the complexity of life history strategies among colonial reef-building corals introduces unique demographic flexibility for colonies to respond to a wide breadth of environmental conditions.

Coral community life histories and population dynamics driven by seascape bathymetry and temperature variability

Temperature variability, habitat, coral communities, and fishing intensity are important factors influencing coral responses to climate change. Consequently, chronic and acute sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and their interactions with habitat and fishing were studied along the East African coast (~400km) by evaluating changes over a ~25-year period in two major reef habitats-island and fringing reefs. These habitats had similar mean and standard deviation temperature measurements but differed in that islands had lower ocean heights and flatter and less right-skewed temperature distributions than fringing reefs. These patterns arise because islands are exposed to deep offshore water passing through deep channels while being protected from the open ocean storms and the strong inter-annual current temperature variability. Within these two seascapes, coral communities are shaped by population responses to the variable temperature distributions as determined by the taxa's associations with the competitive-stress-ruderal (CSR) life history groups. For example, competitive taxa were more abundant where temperature distributions were flat and lacked frequent warm water anomalies. In contrast, ruderal, weedy, and generalist taxa were more common where temperature distributions were centralized, standard deviations high, and warm water anomalies more frequent. Finally, stress-resistant taxa were more common in reefs with high temperature skew but flatter temperature distributions. The rare 1998 thermal anomaly impacted and disturbed the ruderal and stressed reef more than the competitive communities. Ruderal became more similar to stressed communities while the stressed community moved further from the mean before recovering towards the competitive community. Competitive taxa were more common on islands and the deeper fringing reef sites while ruderal were dominant in shallow fringing reef lagoons. Over time, islands were less disturbed than fringing reefs and maintained the highest coral cover, numbers of taxa, and most competitive or space-occupying taxa. However, some island reefs with a history of dynamite fishing aligned with the stress-resistant communities over the full study period. Compared to the in situ SST gauges at the study site, temperature proxies with global coverage were often good at estimating mean and standard deviations of the SSTs but much poorer at estimating the shape of the temperature distributions that reflect chronic and acute stress, as reflected by kurtosis and skewness metrics. Given that these stress variables were critical for understanding the impacts of rare climate disturbances, global climate models that use mean conditions are likely to be poor predictors of future impacts on corals, particularly their species and life history composition. Better predictions should be possible if appropriate chronic and acute stress metrics and their proxies are identified and used.

Early trajectories of benthic coral reef communities following the 2015/16 coral bleaching event at remote Aldabra Atoll, Seychelles

Documenting post-bleaching trajectories of coral reef communities is crucial to understand their resilience to climate change. We investigated reef community changes following the 2015/16 bleaching event at Aldabra Atoll, where direct human impact is minimal. We combined benthic data collected pre- (2014) and post-bleaching (2016–2019) at 12 sites across three locations (lagoon, 2 m depth; seaward west and east, 5 and 15 m depth) with water temperature measurements. While seaward reefs experienced relative hard coral reductions of 51–62%, lagoonal coral loss was lower (− 34%), probably due to three-fold higher daily water temperature variability there. Between 2016 and 2019, hard coral cover did not change on deep reefs which remained dominated by turf algae and Halimeda, but absolute cover on shallow reefs increased annually by 1.3% (east), 2.3% (west) and 3.0% (lagoon), reaching, respectively, 54%, 68% and 93% of the pre-bleaching cover in 2019. Full recovery at the shallow seaward locations may take at least five more years, but remains uncertain for the deeper reefs. The expected increase in frequency and severity of coral bleaching events is likely to make even rapid recovery as observed in Aldabra’s lagoon too slow to prevent long-term reef degradation, even at remote sites.

Extreme temperature events will drive coral decline in the Coral Triangle

In light of rapid environmental change, quantifying the contribution of regional- and local-scale drivers of coral persistence is necessary to characterize fully the resilience of coral reef systems. To assess multiscale responses to thermal perturbation of corals in the Coral Triangle (CT), we developed a spatially explicit metacommunity model with coral-algal competition, including seasonal larval dispersal and external spatiotemporal forcing. We tested coral sensitivity in 2,083 reefs across the CT region and surrounding areas under potential future temperature regimes, with and without interannual climate variability, exploring a range of 0.5-2.0°C overall increase in temperature in the system by 2054. We found that among future projections, reef survival probability and mean percent coral cover over time were largely determined by the presence or absence of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) extremes as well as absolute temperature increase. Overall, reefs that experienced SST time series that were filtered to remove interannual variability had approximately double the chance of survival than reefs subjected to unfiltered SST. By the end of the forecast period, the inclusion of thermal anomalies was equivalent to an increase of at least 0.5°C in SST projections without anomalies. Change in percent coral cover varied widely across the region within temperature scenarios, with some reefs experiencing local extinction while others remaining relatively unchanged. Sink strength and current thermal stress threshold were found to be significant drivers of these patterns, highlighting the importance of processes that underlie larval connectivity and bleaching sensitivity in coral networks.

Bleaching and post-bleaching mortality of Acropora corals on a heat-susceptible reef in 2016

In 2016, global temperatures were the highest on record, and mass coral bleaching occurred world-wide. However, around Sesoko Island, Okinawa, southwestern Japan, the heat stress assessed by degree heating week (DHW) based on local temperature measurements was moderate in 2016; in 1998, DHW was three times higher than in 2016 (10.6 vs. 3.3 in September in respective years). On a reef flat of Sesoko Island where the effect of severe coral bleaching on coral assemblage was monitored in 1998, significant coral bleaching occurred in 2016. Bleaching of the heat stress sensitive Acropora corals began in July 2016 on the reef flat as seawater temperature rose. We observed the bleaching and post-bleaching mortality status of individual colonies of Acropora spp. in 2016 in fixed plots on the reef flat. In total, 123 Acropora colonies were followed for six months after seawater temperature became normal by multiple surveys. At the beginning of September 2016, 99.2% of colonies, were either completely (92.7%) or partially (6.5%) bleached. Of those, the dominant species or species groups were A. gemmifera (Ag), A. digitifera (Ad), and tabular Acropora (tA). For all Acropora colonies, the overall whole and partial mortality was 41.5% and 11.4%, respectively. Whole mortality rate differed significantly among species; 72.5%, 17.9%, and 27.8% in Ag, Ad, and tA, respectively. Mortality rates at the end of the surveys were similar in smaller (≤10 cm in diameter) and larger Ag, but the former suffered mortality earlier than the latter. Higher survival of smaller colonies was observed only in tA (100%), which may be associated with large morphological differences between smaller and larger colonies. Some of the dominant Acropora colonies had survived without partial mortality including 15.0% survival of the most vulnerable Ag at the end of the surveys. These results suggest that moderate heat stress may have a potential for selecting heat-tolerant genotypes. A longer period of mortality lasting for six months, was observed in Ag in addition to immediate whole mortality after bleaching, due to the continuous loss of living tissue by partial mortality. This highlights the need for multiple surveys at least during several months to accurately assess the impact of thermal stress event to corals. In contrast to DHW based on local measurements, DHW obtained from satellite data were similar between 1998 and 2016. Although satellite-based measurement of sea surface temperature is very useful to reveal variations in heat stress at a large spatial scale, temperature should be measured on site when variations at smaller spatial scales are of interest.

Seabird nutrient subsidies alter patterns of algal abundance and fish biomass on coral reefs following a bleaching event

Cross-ecosystem nutrient subsidies play a key role in the structure and dynamics of recipient communities, but human activities are disrupting these links. Because nutrient subsidies may also enhance community stability, the effects of losing these inputs may be exacerbated in the face of increasing climate-related disturbances. Nutrients from seabirds nesting on oceanic islands enhance the productivity and functioning of adjacent coral reefs, but it is unknown whether these subsidies affect the response of coral reefs to mass bleaching events or whether the benefits of these nutrients persist following bleaching. To answer these questions, we surveyed benthic organisms and fishes around islands with seabirds and nearby islands without seabirds due to the presence of invasive rats. Surveys were conducted in the Chagos Archipelago, Indian Ocean, immediately before the 2015-2016 mass bleaching event and, in 2018, two years following the bleaching event. Regardless of the presence of seabirds, relative coral cover declined by 32%. However, there was a post-bleaching shift in benthic community structure around islands with seabirds, which did not occur around islands with invasive rats, characterized by increases in two types of calcareous algae (crustose coralline algae [CCA] and Halimeda spp.). All feeding groups of fishes were positively affected by seabirds, but only herbivores and piscivores were unaffected by the bleaching event and sustained the greatest difference in biomass between islands with seabirds versus those with invasive rats. By contrast, corallivores and planktivores, both of which are coral-dependent, experienced the greatest losses following bleaching. Even though seabird nutrients did not enhance community-wide resistance to bleaching, they may still promote recovery of these reefs through their positive influence on CCA and herbivorous fishes. More broadly, the maintenance of nutrient subsidies, via strategies including eradication of invasive predators, may be important in shaping the response of ecological communities to global climate change.

Resilience of Central Pacific reefs subject to frequent heat stress and human disturbance

Frequent occurrences of coral bleaching and associated coral mortality over recent decades have raised concerns about the survival of coral reefs in a warming planet. The El Niño-influenced coral reefs in the central Gilbert Islands of the Republic of Kiribati, which experience years with prolonged heat stress more frequently than 99% of the world's reefs, may serve as a natural model for coral community response to frequent heat stress. Here we use nine years of survey data (2004-2012) and a suite of remote sensing variables from sites along gradients of climate variability and human disturbance in the region to evaluate the drivers of coral community response to, and recovery from, multiple heat stress events. The results indicate that the extent of bleaching was limited during the 2009-2010 El Niño event, in contrast to a similar 2004-2005 event, and was correlated with incoming light and historical temperature variability, rather than heat stress. Spatial and temporal patterns in benthic cover suggest growing resistance to bleaching-level heat stress among coral communities subject to high inter-annual temperature variability and local disturbance, due to the spread of "weedy" and temperature-tolerant species (e.g., Porites rus) and the cloudy conditions in the region during El Niño events.

High frequency temperature variability reduces the risk of coral bleaching

Coral bleaching is the detrimental expulsion of algal symbionts from their cnidarian hosts, and predominantly occurs when corals are exposed to thermal stress. The incidence and severity of bleaching is often spatially heterogeneous within reef-scales (<1 km), and is therefore not predictable using conventional remote sensing products. Here, we systematically assess the relationship between in situ measurements of 20 environmental variables, along with seven remotely sensed SST thermal stress metrics, and 81 observed bleaching events at coral reef locations spanning five major reef regions globally. We find that high-frequency temperature variability (i.e., daily temperature range) was the most influential factor in predicting bleaching prevalence and had a mitigating effect, such that a 1 °C increase in daily temperature range would reduce the odds of more severe bleaching by a factor of 33. Our findings suggest that reefs with greater high-frequency temperature variability may represent particularly important opportunities to conserve coral ecosystems against the major threat posed by warming ocean temperatures.

Coral bleaching is often predicted via remote sensing of ocean temperatures at large scales, obscuring important reef-scale drivers and biological responses. Here, the authors use in- situ data to show that bleaching is lower globally at reef habitats with greater diurnal temperature variability.

High-resolution modeling of thermal thresholds and environmental influences on coral bleaching for local and regional reef management

Coral reefs are one of the world's most threatened ecosystems, with global and local stressors contributing to their decline. Excessive sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) can cause coral bleaching, resulting in coral death and decreases in coral cover. A SST threshold of 1 °C over the climatological maximum is widely used to predict coral bleaching. In this study, we refined thermal indices predicting coral bleaching at high-spatial resolution (1 km) by statistically optimizing thermal thresholds, as well as considering other environmental influences on bleaching such as ultraviolet (UV) radiation, water turbidity, and cooling effects. We used a coral bleaching dataset derived from the web-based monitoring system Sango Map Project, at scales appropriate for the local and regional conservation of Japanese coral reefs. We recorded coral bleaching events in the years 2004-2016 in Japan. We revealed the influence of multiple factors on the ability to predict coral bleaching, including selection of thermal indices, statistical optimization of thermal thresholds, quantification of multiple environmental influences, and use of multiple modeling methods (generalized linear models and random forests). After optimization, differences in predictive ability among thermal indices were negligible. Thermal index, UV radiation, water turbidity, and cooling effects were important predictors of the occurrence of coral bleaching. Predictions based on the best model revealed that coral reefs in Japan have experienced recent and widespread bleaching. A practical method to reduce bleaching frequency by screening UV radiation was also demonstrated in this paper.

Global patterns and impacts of El Niño events on coral reefs: A meta-analysis

Impacts of global climate change on coral reefs are being amplified by pulse heat stress events, including El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Despite reports of extensive coral bleaching and up to 97% coral mortality induced by El Niño events, a quantitative synthesis of the nature, intensity, and drivers of El Niño and La Niña impacts on corals is lacking. Herein, we first present a global meta-analysis of studies quantifying the effects of El Niño/La Niña-warming on corals, surveying studies from both the primary literature and International Coral Reef Symposium (ICRS) Proceedings. Overall, the strongest signal for El Niño/La Niña-associated coral bleaching was long-term mean temperature; bleaching decreased with decreasing long-term mean temperature (n = 20 studies). Additionally, coral cover losses during El Niño/La Niña were shaped by localized maximum heat stress and long-term mean temperature (n = 28 studies). Second, we present a method for quantifying coral heat stress which, for any coral reef location in the world, allows extraction of remotely-sensed degree heating weeks (DHW) for any date (since 1982), quantification of the maximum DHW, and the time lag since the maximum DHW. Using this method, we show that the 2015/16 El Niño event instigated unprecedented global coral heat stress across the world's oceans. With El Niño events expected to increase in frequency and severity this century, it is imperative that we gain a clear understanding of how these thermal stress anomalies impact different coral species and coral reef regions. We therefore finish with recommendations for future coral bleaching studies that will foster improved syntheses, as well as predictive and adaptive capacity to extreme warming events.

Thermal refugia against coral bleaching throughout the northern Red Sea

Tropical reefs have been impacted by thermal anomalies caused by global warming that induced coral bleaching and mortality events globally. However, there have only been very few recordings of bleaching within the Red Sea despite covering a latitudinal range of 15° and consequently it has been considered a region that is less sensitive to thermal anomalies. We therefore examined historical patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) and associated anomalies (1982-2012) and compared warming trends with a unique compilation of corresponding coral bleaching records from throughout the region. These data indicated that the northern Red Sea has not experienced mass bleaching despite intensive Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) of >15°C-weeks. Severe bleaching was restricted to the central and southern Red Sea where DHWs have been more frequent, but far less intense (DHWs <4°C-weeks). A similar pattern was observed during the 2015-2016 El Niño event during which time corals in the northern Red Sea did not bleach despite high thermal stress (i.e. DHWs >8°C-weeks), and bleaching was restricted to the central and southern Red Sea despite the lower thermal stress (DHWs < 8°C-weeks). Heat stress assays carried out in the northern (Hurghada) and central (Thuwal) Red Sea on four key reef-building species confirmed different regional thermal susceptibility, and that central Red Sea corals are more sensitive to thermal anomalies as compared to those from the north. Together, our data demonstrate that corals in the northern Red Sea have a much higher heat tolerance than their prevailing temperature regime would suggest. In contrast, corals from the central Red Sea are close to their thermal limits, which closely match the maximum annual water temperatures. The northern Red Sea harbours reef-building corals that live well below their bleaching thresholds and thus we propose that the region represents a thermal refuge of global importance.

A new, high-resolution global mass coral bleaching database

Episodes of mass coral bleaching have been reported in recent decades and have raised concerns about the future of coral reefs on a warming planet. Despite the efforts to enhance and coordinate coral reef monitoring within and across countries, our knowledge of the geographic extent of mass coral bleaching over the past few decades is incomplete. Existing databases, like ReefBase, are limited by the voluntary nature of contributions, geographical biases in data collection, and the variations in the spatial scale of bleaching reports. In this study, we have developed the first-ever gridded, global-scale historical coral bleaching database. First, we conducted a targeted search for bleaching reports not included in ReefBase by personally contacting scientists and divers conducting monitoring in under-reported locations and by extracting data from the literature. This search increased the number of observed bleaching reports by 79%, from 4146 to 7429. Second, we employed spatial interpolation techniques to develop annual 0.04° × 0.04° latitude-longitude global maps of the probability that bleaching occurred for 1985 through 2010. Initial results indicate that the area of coral reefs with a more likely than not (>50%) or likely (>66%) probability of bleaching was eight times higher in the second half of the assessed time period, after the 1997/1998 El Niño. The results also indicate that annual maximum Degree Heating Weeks, a measure of thermal stress, for coral reefs with a high probability of bleaching increased over time. The database will help the scientific community more accurately assess the change in the frequency of mass coral bleaching events, validate methods of predicting mass coral bleaching, and test whether coral reefs are adjusting to rising ocean temperatures.

Warming Trends and Bleaching Stress of the World's Coral Reefs 1985-2012

Coral reefs across the world's oceans are in the midst of the longest bleaching event on record (from 2014 to at least 2016). As many of the world's reefs are remote, there is limited information on how past thermal conditions have influenced reef composition and current stress responses. Using satellite temperature data for 1985-2012, the analysis we present is the first to quantify, for global reef locations, spatial variations in warming trends, thermal stress events and temperature variability at reef-scale (~4 km). Among over 60,000 reef pixels globally, 97% show positive SST trends during the study period with 60% warming significantly. Annual trends exceeded summertime trends at most locations. This indicates that the period of summer-like temperatures has become longer through the record, with a corresponding shortening of the 'winter' reprieve from warm temperatures. The frequency of bleaching-level thermal stress increased three-fold between 1985-91 and 2006-12 - a trend climate model projections suggest will continue. The thermal history data products developed enable needed studies relating thermal history to bleaching resistance and community composition. Such analyses can help identify reefs more resilient to thermal stress.

Limits to the thermal tolerance of corals adapted to a highly fluctuating, naturally extreme temperature environment

Naturally extreme temperature environments can provide important insights into the processes underlying coral thermal tolerance. We determined the bleaching resistance of Acropora aspera and Dipsastraea sp. from both intertidal and subtidal environments of the naturally extreme Kimberley region in northwest Australia. Here tides of up to 10 m can cause aerial exposure of corals and temperatures as high as 37 °C that fluctuate daily by up to 7 °C. Control corals were maintained at ambient nearshore temperatures which varied diurnally by 4-5 °C, while treatment corals were exposed to similar diurnal variations and heat stress corresponding to ~20 degree heating days. All corals hosted Symbiodinium clade C independent of treatment or origin. Detailed physiological measurements showed that these corals were nevertheless highly sensitive to daily average temperatures exceeding their maximum monthly mean of ~31 °C by 1 °C for only a few days. Generally, Acropora was much more susceptible to bleaching than Dipsastraea and experienced up to 75% mortality, whereas all Dipsastraea survived. Furthermore, subtidal corals, which originated from a more thermally stable environment compared to intertidal corals, were more susceptible to bleaching. This demonstrates that while highly fluctuating temperatures enhance coral resilience to thermal stress, they do not provide immunity to extreme heat stress events.

Winter temperatures decrease swimming performance and limit distributions of tropical damselfishes

Coral reefs within 10° of the equator generally experience ≤3°C seasonal variation in water temperature. Ectotherms that have evolved in these conditions are therefore expected to exhibit narrow thermal optima and be very sensitive to the greater thermal variability (>6°C) experienced at higher latitudes (≥10°N/S). The impact of increased thermal variability on the fitness and distribution of thermally sensitive reef ectotherms is currently unknown. Here, we examine site-attached planktivorous coral reef damselfishes that rely on their physiological capacity to swim and forage in the water column year round. We focus on 10 species spanning four evolutionarily distinct genera from a region of the Great Barrier Reef that experiences ≥6°C difference between seasons. Four ecologically important indicators showed reduced performance during the winter low (23°C) compared with the summer peak (29°C), with effect sizes varying among species and genera, as follows: (i) the energy available for activity (aerobic scope) was reduced by 35-45% in five species and three genera; (ii) the energetically most efficient swimming speed was reduced by 17% across all species; and (iii) the maximal critical swimming speed and (iv) the gait transition speed (the swimming mode predominantly used for foraging) were reduced by 16-42% in six species spanning all four genera. Comparisons with field surveys within and across latitudes showed that species-specific distributions were strongly correlated with these performance indicators. Species occupy habitats where they can swim faster than prevailing habitat currents year round, and >95% of individuals were observed only in habitats where the gait transition speed can be maintained at or above habitat currents. Thermal fluctuation at higher latitudes appears to reduce performance as well as the possible distribution of species and genera within and among coral reef habitats. Ultimately, thermal variability across latitudes may progressively cause sublethal changes to species performance and lead to a contraction of biogeographical range.

Large predatory coral trout species unlikely to meet increasing energetic demands in a warming ocean

Increased ocean temperature due to climate change is raising metabolic demands and energy requirements of marine ectotherms. If productivity of marine systems and fisheries are to persist, individual species must compensate for this demand through increasing energy acquisition or decreasing energy expenditure. Here we reveal that the most important coral reef fishery species in the Indo-west Pacific, the large predatory coral trout Plectropomus leopardus (Serranidae), can behaviourally adjust food intake to maintain body-condition under elevated temperatures, and acclimate over time to consume larger meals. However, these increased energetic demands are unlikely to be met by adequate production at lower trophic levels, as smaller prey species are often the first to decline in response to climate-induced loss of live coral and structural complexity. Consequently, ubiquitous increases in energy consumption due to climate change will increase top-down competition for a dwindling biomass of prey, potentially distorting entire food webs and associated fisheries.

Downscaled projections of Caribbean coral bleaching that can inform conservation planning

Projections of climate change impacts on coral reefs produced at the coarse resolution (~1°) of Global Climate Models (GCMs) have informed debate but have not helped target local management actions. Here, projections of the onset of annual coral bleaching conditions in the Caribbean under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 are produced using an ensemble of 33 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 models and via dynamical and statistical downscaling. A high-resolution (~11 km) regional ocean model (MOM4.1) is used for the dynamical downscaling. For statistical downscaling, sea surface temperature (SST) means and annual cycles in all the GCMs are replaced with observed data from the ~4-km NOAA Pathfinder SST dataset. Spatial patterns in all three projections are broadly similar; the average year for the onset of annual severe bleaching is 2040-2043 for all projections. However, downscaled projections show many locations where the onset of annual severe bleaching (ASB) varies 10 or more years within a single GCM grid cell. Managers in locations where this applies (e.g., Florida, Turks and Caicos, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic, among others) can identify locations that represent relative albeit temporary refugia. Both downscaled projections are different for the Bahamas compared to the GCM projections. The dynamically downscaled projections suggest an earlier onset of ASB linked to projected changes in regional currents, a feature not resolved in GCMs. This result demonstrates the value of dynamical downscaling for this application and means statistically downscaled projections have to be interpreted with caution. However, aside from west of Andros Island, the projections for the two types of downscaling are mostly aligned; projected onset of ASB is within ±10 years for 72% of the reef locations.

The differential effects of increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme events on coral populations

Extreme events, which have profound ecological consequences, are changing in both frequency and magnitude with climate change. Because extreme temperatures induce coral bleaching, we can explore the relative impacts of changes in frequency and magnitude of high temperature events on coral reefs. Here, we combined climate projections and a dynamic population model to determine how changing bleaching regimes influence coral persistence. We additionally explored how coral traits and competition with macroalgae mediate changes in bleaching regimes. Our results predict that severe bleaching events reduce coral persistence more than frequent bleaching. Corals with low adult mortality and high growth rates are successful when bleaching is mild, but bleaching resistance is necessary to persist when bleaching is severe, regardless of frequency. The existence of macroalgae-dominated stable states reduces coral persistence and changes the relative importance of coral traits. Building on previous studies, our results predict that management efforts may need to prioritize protection of "weaker" corals with high adult mortality when bleaching is mild, and protection of "stronger" corals with high bleaching resistance when bleaching is severe. In summary, future reef projections and conservation targets depend on both local bleaching regimes and biodiversity.

Can sea urchins beat the heat? Sea urchins, thermal tolerance and climate change

The massive die-off of the long-spined sea urchin, Diadema antillarum, a significant reef grazer, in the mid 1980s was followed by phase shifts from coral dominated to macroalgae dominated reefs in the Caribbean. While Diadema populations have recovered in some reefs with concomitant increases in coral cover, the additional threat of increasing temperatures due to global climate change has not been investigated in adult sea urchins. In this study, I measured acute thermal tolerance of D. antillarum and that of a sympatric sea urchin not associated with coral cover, Echinometra lucunter, over winter, spring, and summer, thus exposing them to substantial natural thermal variation. Animals were taken from the wild and placed in laboratory tanks in room temperature water (∼22 °C) that was then heated at 0.16-0.3 °C min(-1) and the righting behavior of individual sea urchins was recorded. I measured both the temperature at which the animal could no longer right itself (T LoR) and the righting time at temperatures below the T LoR. In all seasons, D. antillarum exhibited a higher mean T LoR than E. lucunter. The mean T LoR of each species increased with increasing environmental temperature revealing that both species acclimatize to seasonal changes in temperatures. The righting times of D. antillarum were much shorter than those of E. lucunter. The longer relative spine length of Diadema compared to that of Echinometra may contribute to their shorter righting times, but does not explain their higher T LoR. The thermal safety margin (the difference between the mean collection temperature and the mean T LoR) was between 3.07-3.66 °C for Echinometra and 3.79-5.67 °C for Diadema. While these thermal safety margins exceed present day temperatures, they are modest compared to those of temperate marine invertebrates. If sea temperatures increase more rapidly than can be accommodated by the sea urchins (either by genetic adaptation, phenotypic plasticity, or both), this will have important consequences for the structure of coral reefs.

Increasing ocean temperatures reduce activity patterns of a large commercially important coral reef fish

Large-bodied fish are critical for sustaining coral reef fisheries, but little is known about the vulnerability of these fish to global warming. This study examined the effects of elevated temperatures on the movement and activity patterns of the common coral trout Plectropomus leopardus (Serranidae), which is an important fishery species in tropical Australia and throughout the Indo West-Pacific. Adult fish were collected from two locations on Australia's Great Barrier Reef (23°S and 14°S) and maintained at one of four temperatures (24, 27, 30, 33 °C). Following >4 weeks acclimation, the spontaneous swimming speeds and activity patterns of individuals were recorded over a period of 12 days. At 24-27 °C, spontaneous swimming speeds of common coral trout were 0.43-0.45 body lengths per second (bls(-1)), but dropped sharply to 0.29 bls(-1) at 30 °C and 0.25 bls(-1) at 33 °C. Concurrently, individuals spent 9.3-10.6% of their time resting motionless on the bottom at 24-27 °C, but this behaviour increased to 14.0% at 30 °C and 20.0% of the time at 33 °C (mean ± SE). The impact of temperature was greatest for smaller individuals (<45 cm TL), showing significant changes to swimming speeds across every temperature tested, while medium (45-55 cm TL) and large individuals (>55 cm TL) were first affected by 30 °C and 33 °C, respectively. Importantly, there was some indication that populations can adapt to elevated temperature if presented with adequate time, as the high-latitude population decreased significantly in swimming speeds at both 30 °C and 33 °C, while the low-latitude population only showed significant reductions at 33 °C. Given that movement and activity patterns of large mobile species are directly related to prey encounter rates, ability to capture prey and avoid predators, any reductions in activity patterns are likely to reduce overall foraging and energy intake, limit the energy available for growth and reproduction, and affect the fitness and survival of individuals and populations.

Incorporating adaptive responses into future projections of coral bleaching

Climate warming threatens to increase mass coral bleaching events, and several studies have projected the demise of tropical coral reefs this century. However, recent evidence indicates corals may be able to respond to thermal stress though adaptive processes (e.g., genetic adaptation, acclimatization, and symbiont shuffling). How these mechanisms might influence warming-induced bleaching remains largely unknown. This study compared how different adaptive processes could affect coral bleaching projections. We used the latest bias-corrected global sea surface temperature (SST) output from the NOAA/GFDL Earth System Model 2 (ESM2M) for the preindustrial period through 2100 to project coral bleaching trajectories. Initial results showed that, in the absence of adaptive processes, application of a preindustrial climatology to the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method overpredicts the present-day bleaching frequency. This suggests that corals may have already responded adaptively to some warming over the industrial period. We then modified the prediction method so that the bleaching threshold either permanently increased in response to thermal history (e.g., simulating directional genetic selection) or temporarily increased for 2-10 years in response to a bleaching event (e.g., simulating symbiont shuffling). A bleaching threshold that changes relative to the preceding 60 years of thermal history reduced the frequency of mass bleaching events by 20-80% compared with the 'no adaptive response' prediction model by 2100, depending on the emissions scenario. When both types of adaptive responses were applied, up to 14% more reef cells avoided high-frequency bleaching by 2100. However, temporary increases in bleaching thresholds alone only delayed the occurrence of high-frequency bleaching by ca. 10 years in all but the lowest emissions scenario. Future research should test the rate and limit of different adaptive responses for coral species across latitudes and ocean basins to determine if and how much corals can respond to increasing thermal stress.

Opposite latitudinal gradients in projected ocean acidification and bleaching impacts on coral reefs

Coral reefs and the services they provide are seriously threatened by ocean acidification and climate change impacts like coral bleaching. Here, we present updated global projections for these key threats to coral reefs based on ensembles of IPCC AR5 climate models using the new Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) experiments. For all tropical reef locations, we project absolute and percentage changes in aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) for the period between 2006 and the onset of annual severe bleaching (thermal stress >8 degree heating weeks); a point at which it is difficult to believe reefs can persist as we know them. Severe annual bleaching is projected to start 10-15 years later at high-latitude reefs than for reefs in low latitudes under RCP8.5. In these 10-15 years, Ωarag keeps declining and thus any benefits for high-latitude reefs of later onset of annual bleaching may be negated by the effects of acidification. There are no long-term refugia from the effects of both acidification and bleaching. Of all reef locations, 90% are projected to experience severe bleaching annually by 2055. Furthermore, 5% declines in calcification are projected for all reef locations by 2034 under RCP8.5, assuming a 15% decline in calcification per unit of Ωarag. Drastic emissions cuts, such as those represented by RCP6.0, result in an average year for the onset of annual severe bleaching that is ~20 years later (2062 vs. 2044). However, global emissions are tracking above the current worst-case scenario devised by the scientific community, as has happened in previous generations of emission scenarios. The projections here for conditions on coral reefs are dire, but provide the most up-to-date assessment of what the changing climate and ocean acidification mean for the persistence of coral reefs.

Bleaching susceptibility and recovery of Colombian Caribbean corals in response to water current exposure and seasonal upwelling

Coral bleaching events are globally occurring more frequently and with higher intensity, mainly caused by increases in seawater temperature. In Tayrona National Natural Park (TNNP) in the Colombian Caribbean, local coral communities are subjected to seasonal wind-triggered upwelling events coinciding with stronger water currents depending on location. This natural phenomenon offers the unique opportunity to study potential water current-induced mitigation mechanisms of coral bleaching in an upwelling influenced region. Therefore, coral bleaching susceptibility and recovery patterns were compared during a moderate and a mild bleaching event in December 2010 and 2011, and at the end of the subsequent upwelling periods at a water current-exposed and -sheltered site of an exemplary bay using permanent transect and labeling tools. This was accompanied by parallel monitoring of key environmental variables. Findings revealed that in 2010 overall coral bleaching before upwelling was significantly higher at the sheltered (34%) compared to the exposed site (8%). Whereas 97% of all previously bleached corals at the water current-exposed site had recovered from bleaching by April 2011, only 77% recovered at the sheltered site, but 12% had died there. In December 2011, only mild bleaching (<10% at both sites) was observed, but corals recovered significantly at both sites in the course of upwelling. No differences in water temperatures between sites occurred, but water current exposure and turbidity were significantly higher at the exposed site, suggesting that these variables may be responsible for the observed site-specific mitigation of coral bleaching. This indicates the existence of local resilience patterns against coral bleaching in Caribbean reefs.

Quantifying climatological ranges and anomalies for Pacific coral reef ecosystems

Coral reef ecosystems are exposed to a range of environmental forcings that vary on daily to decadal time scales and across spatial scales spanning from reefs to archipelagos. Environmental variability is a major determinant of reef ecosystem structure and function, including coral reef extent and growth rates, and the abundance, diversity, and morphology of reef organisms. Proper characterization of environmental forcings on coral reef ecosystems is critical if we are to understand the dynamics and implications of abiotic-biotic interactions on reef ecosystems. This study combines high-resolution bathymetric information with remotely sensed sea surface temperature, chlorophyll-a and irradiance data, and modeled wave data to quantify environmental forcings on coral reefs. We present a methodological approach to develop spatially constrained, island- and atoll-scale metrics that quantify climatological range limits and anomalous environmental forcings across U.S. Pacific coral reef ecosystems. Our results indicate considerable spatial heterogeneity in climatological ranges and anomalies across 41 islands and atolls, with emergent spatial patterns specific to each environmental forcing. For example, wave energy was greatest at northern latitudes and generally decreased with latitude. In contrast, chlorophyll-a was greatest at reef ecosystems proximate to the equator and northern-most locations, showing little synchrony with latitude. In addition, we find that the reef ecosystems with the highest chlorophyll-a concentrations; Jarvis, Howland, Baker, Palmyra and Kingman are each uninhabited and are characterized by high hard coral cover and large numbers of predatory fishes. Finally, we find that scaling environmental data to the spatial footprint of individual islands and atolls is more likely to capture local environmental forcings, as chlorophyll-a concentrations decreased at relatively short distances (>7 km) from 85% of our study locations. These metrics will help identify reef ecosystems most exposed to environmental stress as well as systems that may be more resistant or resilient to future climate change.

Historical temperature variability affects coral response to heat stress

Coral bleaching is the breakdown of symbiosis between coral animal hosts and their dinoflagellate algae symbionts in response to environmental stress. On large spatial scales, heat stress is the most common factor causing bleaching, which is predicted to increase in frequency and severity as the climate warms. There is evidence that the temperature threshold at which bleaching occurs varies with local environmental conditions and background climate conditions. We investigated the influence of past temperature variability on coral susceptibility to bleaching, using the natural gradient in peak temperature variability in the Gilbert Islands, Republic of Kiribati. The spatial pattern in skeletal growth rates and partial mortality scars found in massive Porites sp. across the central and northern islands suggests that corals subject to larger year-to-year fluctuations in maximum ocean temperature were more resistant to a 2004 warm-water event. In addition, a subsequent 2009 warm event had a disproportionately larger impact on those corals from the island with lower historical heat stress, as indicated by lower concentrations of triacylglycerol, a lipid utilized for energy, as well as thinner tissue in those corals. This study indicates that coral reefs in locations with more frequent warm events may be more resilient to future warming, and protection measures may be more effective in these regions.

Contrasting patterns of coral bleaching susceptibility in 2010 suggest an adaptive response to thermal stress

BACKGROUND

Coral bleaching events vary in severity, however, to date, the hierarchy of susceptibility to bleaching among coral taxa has been consistent over a broad geographic range and among bleaching episodes. Here we examine the extent of spatial and temporal variation in thermal tolerance among scleractinian coral taxa and between locations during the 2010 thermally induced, large-scale bleaching event in South East Asia.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Surveys to estimate the bleaching and mortality indices of coral genera were carried out at three locations with contrasting thermal and bleaching histories. Despite the magnitude of thermal stress being similar among locations in 2010, there was a remarkable contrast in the patterns of bleaching susceptibility. Comparisons of bleaching susceptibility within coral taxa and among locations revealed no significant differences between locations with similar thermal histories, but significant differences between locations with contrasting thermal histories (Friedman = 34.97; p<0.001). Bleaching was much less severe at locations that bleached during 1998, that had greater historical temperature variability and lower rates of warming. Remarkably, Acropora and Pocillopora, taxa that are typically highly susceptible, although among the most susceptible in Pulau Weh (Sumatra, Indonesia) where respectively, 94% and 87% of colonies died, were among the least susceptible in Singapore, where only 5% and 12% of colonies died.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

The pattern of susceptibility among coral genera documented here is unprecedented. A parsimonious explanation for these results is that coral populations that bleached during the last major warming event in 1998 have adapted and/or acclimatised to thermal stress. These data also lend support to the hypothesis that corals in regions subject to more variable temperature regimes are more resistant to thermal stress than those in less variable environments.