Predation pressure by avian predators suggests summer limitation of small-mammal populations in the Canadian Arctic

Taking the beat of the Arctic: are lemming population cycles changing due to winter climate?

Reports of fading vole and lemming population cycles and persisting low populations in some parts of the Arctic have raised concerns about the spread of these fundamental changes to tundra food web dynamics. By compiling 24 unique time series of lemming population fluctuations across the circumpolar region, we show that virtually all populations displayed alternating periods of cyclic/non-cyclic fluctuations over the past four decades. Cyclic patterns were detected 55% of the time (n = 649 years pooled across sites) with a median periodicity of 3.7 years, and non-cyclic periods were not more frequent in recent years. Overall, there was an indication for a negative effect of warm spells occurring during the snow onset period of the preceding year on lemming abundance. However, winter duration or early winter climatic conditions did not differ on average between cyclic and non-cyclic periods. Analysis of the time series shows that there is presently no Arctic-wide collapse of lemming cycles, even though cycles have been sporadic at most sites during the last decades. Although non-stationary dynamics appears a common feature of lemming populations also in the past, continued warming in early winter may decrease the frequency of periodic irruptions with negative consequences for tundra ecosystems.

Ultra-light photosensor collars to monitor Arctic lemming activity

Background

Studying the anti-predatory behavior of mammals represents an important challenge, especially for fossorial small mammals that hide in burrows. In the Arctic, such behaviors are critical to the survival of lemmings considering that predation risks are high every summer. Because detailed information about how lemmings use burrows as hideouts is still lacking, we developed a 1.59 g photosensitive collar to record any event of a small mammal moving between a dark area (e.g., burrow) and a bright area (e.g., outside the burrow). Tests of how collars affected lemming behavior were conducted in captivity in Cambridge Bay, Nunavut, Canada, in November 2019 and field tests were conducted on Bylot Island, Nunavut, Canada, in August 2021.

Results

The device was made of two chemical batteries and a printed circuit board (PCB) equipped with a photosensor and a real-time clock that recorded amplitude transient thresholds of light (lux) continuously. In accordance with ethical use of such devices, we verified that no abnormal loss of body mass was observed in captive or free-ranging lemmings, and no difference in recapture rates were observed between those with and without a collar, though we could not test this for periods longer than 108 h. Measurements of light intensities revealed consistent patterns with high lux levels at mid-day and lowest during the night. Lemmings showed clearly defined behavioral patterns alternating between periods outside and inside burrows. Despite 24-h daylight in the middle of the summer, August nighttime (i.e., 11 PM to 4 AM) lux levels were insufficient for amplitude transient thresholds to be reached.

Conclusion

By taking advantage of the long periods of daylight in the Arctic, such technology is very promising as it sets new bases for passive recording of behavioral parameters and builds on the prospect of further miniaturization of batteries and PCBs.

Density-dependent winter survival of immatures in an irruptive raptor with pulsed breeding

Highly mobile predators can show strong numerical responses to pulsed resources, sometimes resulting in irruptions where large numbers of young invade landscapes at a continental scale. High production of young in irruption years may have a strong influence on the population dynamics unless immature survival is reduced compared to non-irruption years. This could occur if subordinate individuals (mainly immatures) are forced into suboptimal habitats due to density-dependent effects in irruption years. To test whether irruptive individuals had lower survival than non-irruptive ones, we combined necropsy results (N = 365) with telemetry (N = 185) from more than 20 years to record timing and causes of mortality in snowy owls (Bubo scandiacus), which irrupt into eastern North America during winter following high breeding output caused by lemming peaks in the Arctic. Mortality was more than four times higher in irruption years than non-irruption years, but only for immatures, and occurred disproportionately in early winter for immatures, but not adults. Mortality was also higher in eastern North America, where owl abundance fluctuates considerably between years, compared to core winter regions of the Arctic and Prairies where populations are more stable. Most mortality was not due to starvation, but rather associated with human activity, especially vehicle collisions. We conclude that immature snowy owls that irrupt into eastern North America are limited by density-dependent factors, such as increased competition forcing individuals to occupy risky human-altered habitats. For highly mobile, irruptive animals, resource pulses may have a limited impact on population dynamics due to low subsequent survival of breeding output during the nonbreeding season.

A nomadic avian predator displays flexibility in prey choice during episodic outbreaks of rodents in arid Australia

In environments driven by unpredictable resource pulses, populations of many consumer species experience dramatic fluctuations in abundance and spatial extent. Predator-prey relationships in these acyclic systems are poorly understood in particular with respect to the level of prey specialisation shown by nomadic predators. To understand the dynamics of such a system I examined the response to rodent outbreaks by the letter-winged kite (Elanus scriptus) in the Simpson Desert, Australia; a region that experiences major pulses in primary productivity, driven by unpredictable rainfall events. The kite feeds on small mammals and is the only night-hunting species in the Accipitridae. Letter-winged kites irrupted in the area on only three occasions during 20 years of sampling (1999-2019) and remained for a maximum of 20 months. Each period of kite occupation occurred only during the increase and/or peak phase of rodent population cycles (which occurred three times during the study). During each period kite diet was dominated by small (10-50 g body mass) quadrupedal rodents (Pseudomys australis, P. hermannsburgensis, Mus musculus). Abundance of these species varied across the three outbreaks and kites typically captured them in proportion to availability. The large body mass (134 g) long-haired rat (Rattus villosissimus) was abundant during one outbreak but was infrequently consumed. The bipedal spinifex hopping-mouse (Notomys alexis) was within the kites' favoured prey size range (35 g) but was consistently avoided. The flexibility in prey selection by letter-winged kites appears to be an important adaptation for survival and reproduction by species exploiting acyclic rodent outbreaks.

Linking winter habitat use, diet and reproduction in snowy owls using satellite tracking and stable isotope analyses

Coupling isotope values of feathers and satellite tracking of individuals have the potential to reveal multi-season linkages between wintering habitat, diet and carry-over effects on reproductive parameters in migrating birds. Snowy owls Bubo scandiacus have multiple wintering tactics as they can use both terrestrial and marine resources during the non-breeding season, but their nomadic behaviour complicates their study. We assessed if inter-individual variability in the diet inferred by feather isotopes could be explained by habitat use in winter as determined by satellite telemetry and examined possible carry-over effects on reproduction. Seventeen breeding female snowy owls were equipped with satellite transmitters and sampled for stable isotopes (δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N) in feathers. We found a positive relationship between the use of the coastal and marine environments in winter and the contribution of marine resources to the diet of snowy owls in the previous year based on feather analysis. The proportion of marine contribution to the winter diet was variable among individuals and showed a weak negative relationship to summer body mass but not with laying date or clutch size. Our integrated approach shows the usefulness of isotope analyses to infer habitat use and expand the temporal coverage of radio-tracking studies.

Derivation of Predator Functional Responses Using a Mechanistic Approach in a Natural System

The functional response is at the core of any predator-prey interactions as it establishes the link between trophic levels. The use of inaccurate functional response can profoundly affect the outcomes of population and community models. Yet most functional responses are evaluated using phenomenological models which often fail to discriminate among functional response shapes and cannot identify the proximate mechanisms regulating predator acquisition rates. Using a combination of behavioral, demographic, and experimental data collected over 20 years, we develop a mechanistic model based on species traits and behavior to assess the functional response of a generalist mammalian predator, the arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus), to various tundra prey species (lemmings and the nests of geese, passerines, and sandpipers). Predator acquisition rates derived from the mechanistic model were consistent with field observations. Although acquisition rates slightly decrease at high goose nest and lemming densities, none of our simulations resulted in a saturating response in all prey species. Our results highlight the importance of predator searching components in predator-prey interactions, especially predator speed, while predator acquisition rates were not limited by handling processes. By combining theory with field observations, our study provides support that the predator acquisition rate is not systematically limited at the highest prey densities observed in a natural system. Our study also illustrates how mechanistic models based on empirical estimates of the main components of predation can generate functional response shapes specific to the range of prey densities observed in the wild. Such models are needed to fully untangle proximate drivers of predator-prey population dynamics and to improve our understanding of predator-mediated interactions in natural communities.

Interactive influences of fluctuations of main food resources and climate change on long-term population decline of Tengmalm's owls in the boreal forest

Recent wildlife population declines are usually attributed to multiple sources such as global climate change and habitat loss and degradation inducing decreased food supply. However, interactive effects of fluctuations in abundance of main foods and weather conditions on population densities and reproductive success have been studied rarely. We analysed long-term (1973-2018) data on Tengmalm's owl (Aegolius funereus) and the influence of prey abundance and weather on breeding densities and reproductive success in western Finland. We found that fledgling production per breeding attempt declined and laying date of the owl population delayed during the period between 1973 and 2018. The breeding density of the owl population decreased with increasing temperature in winter (October-March), fledgling production increased with increasing temperature and precipitation in spring (April-June), whereas the initiation of egg-laying was delayed with increasing depth of snow cover in late winter (January-March). The decreasing trend of fledgling production, which was mainly due to starvation of offspring, was an important factor contributing to the long-term decline of the Tengmalm's owl study population. Milder and more humid spring and early summer temperatures due to global warming were not able to compensate for lowered offspring production of owls. The main reason for low productivity is probably loss and degradation of mature and old-growth forests due to clear-felling which results in loss of coverage of prime habitat for main (bank voles) and alternative foods (small birds) of owls inducing lack of food, and refuges against predators of Tengmalm's owls. This interpretation was also supported by the delayed start of egg-laying during the study period although ambient temperatures increased prior to and during the egg-laying period.

Resource partitioning among avian predators of the Arctic tundra

Interspecific competition can play a key role in structuring ecological communities. The Arctic tundra is a low productivity ecosystem supporting simple food webs, but several predators often feed on the same prey species, lemmings, known for their large-amplitude population fluctuations. We examined mechanisms involved in reducing intra-guild competition and allowing coexistence of four avian predators (snowy owls, glaucous gulls, rough-legged hawks and long-tailed jaegers) feeding on a pulsed resource (brown and collared lemmings). We compared the size and species of prey consumed by predators to see if resource partitioning occurred. We also verified if spatial segregation in nesting areas could be another mechanism allowing coexistence. Finally, we tested if the absence of the snowy owl, a dominant and irruptive species, triggered a competitive release on the smallest predator, the jaeger, with respect to prey size and nesting area used. We monitored the breeding of predators and lemming abundance over a 14-year period on Bylot Island, Canada. We mapped their nesting sites and collected regurgitation pellets to recover lemming mandibles, which were used to infer prey species and size. The size of lemmings consumed varied among species with the largest predators consuming the largest lemmings and the smallest predators consuming the smallest lemmings. All predators consumed more collared than brown lemmings compared to their availability although owls and jaegers consumed relatively more brown lemmings compared to gulls and hawks. Jaegers consumed larger lemmings in the absence of owls than in their presence, suggestive of a short-term competitive release. We found moderate to low overlap in nesting areas among predators and no evidence of their expansion in the absence of owls, suggesting that spatial distribution is caused by species-specific habitat preferences. The main mechanism to partition food resources among these avian predators is spatial segregation, and secondarily prey size and species. However, we found evidence that food competition is still present and leads to a niche shift in the smallest predator of the guild. Interspecific competition may thus be a pervasive force in simple, low productivity food webs characterized by pulsed resources.

Pulsed food resources affect reproduction but not adult apparent survival in arctic foxes

As top or mesopredators, carnivores play a key role in food webs. Their survival and reproduction are usually thought to be influenced by prey availability. However, simultaneous monitoring of prey and predators is difficult, making it challenging to evaluate the impacts of prey on carnivores' demography. Using 13 years of field data on arctic foxes Vulpes lagopus in the Canadian High Arctic and a capture-recapture multi-event statistical approach, we investigated the hypothesis that increases in lemming abundance (a cyclic and unpredictable food source) and goose colony proximity (a stable but spatially and temporally limited food source) would be associated with increased apparent survival and reproduction probabilities of adults. Adult apparent survival varied greatly across years (0.13-1.00) but was neither affected by lemming nor goose variations in abundance. However, reproduction probabilities were strongly influenced by both lemming abundance and access to the goose colony. A fox breeding in the best conditions of food availability (year of high lemming density inside the goose colony) had a reproduction probability four times higher than one experiencing the worst conditions (year of low lemming density outside the goose colony). Breeding status of individuals also played a role, with breeders having a 10-20% higher probability of survival and 30% higher probability of reproduction the following year than non-breeders. As the Arctic ecosystem changes due to increased temperatures and species ranges, this study will allow better predictions of predator responses to management or environmental changes and a better understanding of ecosystem functioning.

Age and sex differences in numerical responses, dietary shifts, and total responses of a generalist predator to population dynamics of main prey

Fluctuations in the abundance of main prey species might shape animal communities, by inducing numerical responses and dietary shifts in predators. Whether numerical responses and dietary shifts differ among individuals of different age and sex has so far gained little attention. These differences could affect how much predators consume main and alternative prey, thus causing variation in predation pressure on main and alternative prey species. We studied the effect of fluctuating main prey abundance (voles) in autumn on the age and sex composition of a food-hoarding population of Eurasian pygmy owls Glaucidium passerinum (327 individuals), and on the species composition of their food stores in western Finland during 2003-2017 (629 food stores). Numbers of yearlings (< 1-year old) of both sexes and adult (+ 1-year old) females increased with increasing vole abundance. During low vole abundance, adult owls stored more small birds and less small mammals than yearlings. Females stored more small mammals than males and showed a tendency to store less birds. The amount of consumed birds (the most important alternative prey), and in particular of crested, willow, great, and blue tits, increased with low vole densities. Our results show that numerical, functional, and total responses of pygmy owls, and probably also other vertebrate predators, to the availability of the main prey in winter are shaped by the age and sex composition of the predator population, which both show large spatio-temporal variation in boreal forests.

Flexibility in a changing arctic food web: Can rough-legged buzzards cope with changing small rodent communities?

Indirect effects of climate change are often mediated by trophic interactions and consequences for individual species depend on how they are tied into the local food web. Here we show how the response of demographic rates of an arctic bird of prey to fluctuations in small rodent abundance changed when small rodent community composition and dynamics changed, possibly under the effect of climate warming. We observed the breeding biology of rough-legged buzzards (Buteo lagopus) at the Erkuta Tundra Monitoring Site in southern Yamal, low arctic Russia, for 19 years (1999-2017). At the same time, data on small rodent abundance were collected and information on buzzard diet was obtained from pellet dissection. The small rodent community experienced a shift from high-amplitude cycles to dampened fluctuations paralleled with a change in species composition toward less lemmings and more voles. Buzzards clearly preferred lemmings as prey. Breeding density of buzzards was positively related to small rodent abundance, but the shift in small rodent community lead to lower numbers relative to small rodent abundance. At the same time, after the change in small rodent community, the average number of fledglings was higher relative to small rodent abundance than earlier. These results suggest that the buzzard population adapted to a certain degree to the changes in the major resource, although at the same time density declined. The documented flexibility in the short-term response of demographic rates to changes in structure and dynamics of key food web components make it difficult to predict how complex food webs will be transformed in a warmer Arctic. The degree of plasticity of functional responses is indeed likely to vary between species and between regions, depending also on the local food web context.

Differences in behavior help to explain lemming coexistence

Collared (Dicrostonyx groenlandicus) and brown (Lemmus trimucronatus) lemmings coexist in tundra habitats across much of the middle and lower Canadian arctic. Their coexistence, and response to predation risk, appears mediated by behavior. We analyzed field-collected videos of open-field tests to assess potential differences in innate behaviors between the two species. Collared lemmings were less active and exhibited less exploratory behavior than did brown lemmings, which were more active under cover than in the open. Similar behaviors scaling along axes of activity and curiosity were revealed by principal components analysis. Each axis defined different aspects of brown lemming personality, but repeated testing of the same individuals yielded a striking dependence of their behavioral response on open-field treatments. Even so, the differences between species in behavior correlate well with their habitat preferences that resolve competition and govern their coexistence.

Are gastrointestinal parasites associated with the cyclic population dynamics of their arctic lemming hosts?

Many rodents, including most populations of arctic lemmings (genus Dicrostonyx and Lemmus), have cyclic population dynamics. Among the numerous hypotheses which have been proposed and tested to explain this typical characteristic of some terrestrial vertebrate communities, trophic interactions have often been presented as the most likely drivers of these periodic fluctuations. The possible role of parasites has, however, only seldom been assessed. In this study, we genetically measured the prevalence of two endoparasite taxa, eimerians and cestodes, in 372 faecal samples from collared lemmings, over a five year period and across three distant sites in Northeast Greenland. Prevalence of cestodes was low (2.7% over all sites and years) and this taxon was only found at one site (although in 4 out of 5 years) in adult hosts. By contrast, we found high prevalence for eimerians (77.7% over all sites and years), which occurred at all sites, in every year, for both age classes (at the Hochstetter Forland site where both adult and juvenile faeces were collected) and regardless of reproductive and social status inferred from the characteristics of the lemming nests where the samples had been collected. Prevalence of eimerians significantly varied among years (not among sites) and was higher for juvenile than for adult lemmings at the Hochstetter Forland site. However, higher prevalence of eimerians (P_t) was only associated with lower lemming density (N_t) at one of the three sites and we found no delayed density dependence between N_t and P_t+1 to support the parasite hypothesis. Our results show that there is no clear relation between lemming density and eimerian faecal prevalence in Northeast Greenland and hence no evidence that eimerians could be driving the cyclic population dynamics of collared lemmings in this region.

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Prevalence of eimerians and cestodes was measured in collared lemming in Greenland.

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Prevalence of cestodes was low (2.7%; one site only) compared to eimerians (78%).

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Prevalence of eimerians was higher for juveniles and varied among years.

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Prevalence of eimerians was negatively associated with lemming density at one site.

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lack of delayed density dependence does not support the parasite hypothesis for lemming cycles.

Transferability of biotic interactions: Temporal consistency of arctic plant-rodent relationships is poor

Variability in biotic interaction strength is an integral part of food web functioning. However, the consequences of the spatial and temporal variability of biotic interactions are poorly known, in particular for predicting species abundance and distribution. The amplitude of rodent population cycles (i.e., peak-phase abundances) has been hypothesized to be determined by vegetation properties in tundra ecosystems. We assessed the spatial and temporal predictability of food and shelter plants effects on peak-phase small rodent abundance during two consecutive rodent population peaks. Rodent abundance was related to both food and shelter biomass during the first peak, and spatial transferability was mostly good. Yet, the temporal transferability of our models to the next population peak was poorer. Plant-rodent interactions are thus temporally variable and likely more complex than simple one-directional (bottom-up) relationships or variably overruled by other biotic interactions and abiotic factors. We propose that parametrizing a more complete set of functional links within food webs across abiotic and biotic contexts would improve transferability of biotic interaction models. Such attempts are currently constrained by the lack of data with replicated estimates of key players in food webs. Enhanced collaboration between researchers whose main research interests lay in different parts of the food web could ameliorate this.

High Arctic lemmings remain reproductively active under predator-induced elevated stress

Non-consumptive effects of predation have rarely been assessed in wildlife populations even though their impact could be as important as lethal effects. Reproduction of individuals is one of the most important demographic parameters that could be affected by predator-induced stress, which in turn can have important consequences on population dynamics. We studied non-consumptive effects of predation on the reproductive activity (i.e., mating and fertilization) of a cyclic population of brown lemmings exposed to intense summer predation in the Canadian High Arctic. Lemmings were live-trapped, their reproductive activity (i.e., testes visible in males, pregnancy/lactation in females) assessed, and predators were monitored during the summers of 2014 and 2015 within a 9 ha predator-reduction exclosure delimited by a fence and covered by a net, and on an 11 ha control area. Stress levels were quantified non-invasively with fecal corticosterone metabolites (FCM). We found that FCM levels of lemmings captured outside the predator exclosure (n = 50) were 1.6 times higher than inside (n = 51). The proportion of pregnant/lactating adult females did not differ between the two areas, nor did the proportion of adult scrotal males. We found that lemmings showed physiological stress reactions due to high predation risk, but had no sign of reduced mating activity or fertility. Thus, our results do not support the hypothesis of reproductive suppression by predator-induced stress.

Bottom-up processes drive reproductive success in an apex predator

One of the central goals of the field of population ecology is to identify the drivers of population dynamics, particularly in the context of predator-prey relationships. Understanding the relative role of top-down versus bottom-up drivers is of particular interest in understanding ecosystem dynamics. Our goal was to explore predator-prey relationships in a boreal ecosystem in interior Alaska through the use of multispecies long-term monitoring data. We used 29 years of field data and a dynamic multistate site occupancy modeling approach to explore the trophic relationships between an apex predator, the golden eagle, and cyclic populations of the two primary prey species available to eagles early in the breeding season, snowshoe hare and willow ptarmigan. We found that golden eagle reproductive success was reliant on prey numbers, but also responded prior to changes in the phase of the snowshoe hare population cycle and failed to respond to variation in hare cycle amplitude. There was no lagged response to ptarmigan populations, and ptarmigan populations recovered quickly from the low phase. Together, these results suggested that eagle reproduction is largely driven by bottom-up processes, with little evidence of top-down control of either ptarmigan or hare populations. Although the relationship between golden eagle reproductive success and prey abundance had been previously established, here we established prey populations are likely driving eagle dynamics through bottom-up processes. The key to this insight was our focus on golden eagle reproductive parameters rather than overall abundance. Although our inference is limited to the golden eagle-hare-ptarmigan relationships we studied, our results suggest caution in interpreting predator-prey abundance patterns among other species as strong evidence for top-down control.

Weather-driven change in primary productivity explains variation in the amplitude of two herbivore population cycles in a boreal system

Vertebrate populations throughout the circumpolar north often exhibit cyclic dynamics, and predation is generally considered to be a primary driver of these cycles in a variety of herbivore species. However, weather and climate play a role in entraining cycles over broad landscapes and may alter cyclic dynamics, although the mechanism by which these processes operate is uncertain. Experimental and observational work has suggested that weather influences primary productivity over multi-year time periods, suggesting a pathway through which weather and climate may influence cyclic herbivore dynamics. Using long-term monitoring data, we investigated the relationships among multi-year weather conditions, measures of primary productivity, and the abundance of two cyclic herbivore species: snowshoe hare and northern red-backed vole. We found that precipitation (rain and snow) and growing season temperatures were strongly associated with variation in primary productivity over multi-year time horizons. In turn, fourfold variation in the amplitude of both the hare and vole cycles observed in our study area corresponded to long-term changes in primary productivity. The congruence of our results for these two species suggests a general mechanism by which weather and climate might influence cyclic herbivore population dynamics. Our findings also suggested that the association between climate warming and the disappearance of cycles might be initiated by changes in primary productivity. This work provides an explanation for observed influences of weather and climate on primary productivity and population cycles and will help our collective understanding of how future climate warming may influence these ecological phenomena in the future.

Experimental addition of cover lowers the perception of danger and increases reproduction in meadow voles (Microtus pennsylvanicus)

Predation danger is pervasive for small mammals and is expected to select strongly for behavioural tactics that reduce the risk. In particular, since it may be considered a cost of reproduction, predation danger is expected to affect the level of reproductive effort. We test this hypothesis in a population of meadow voles (Microtus pennsylvanicus (Ord, 1815)) under seminatural conditions in field enclosures. We manipulated the voles’ perception of predation danger by adjusting the available cover and measured giving up density (GUD) in food patches to verify that the perception of danger differed between high- and low-cover treatments. Treatments did not differ in actual predation rate, in vole density, or in the quantity or quality of food. During the experiments, we measured indices of vole reproductive effort including activity (electronic detectors), foraging intensity (fecal plates), and the number of young produced (livetrapping). Voles in the high-cover (lower danger) treatments were more active, foraged more, and produced 85% more young per female per trap period than voles in the low-cover (higher danger) treatment. We briefly discuss the population consequences of this adaptive behavioural flexibility.

Top-down limitation of lemmings revealed by experimental reduction of predators

It is generally recognized that delayed density-dependence is responsible for cyclic population dynamics. However, it is still uncertain whether a single factor can explain why some rodent populations fluctuate according to a 3-4 yr periodicity. There is increasing evidence that predation may play a role in lemming population cycles, although this effect may vary seasonally. To address this issue, we conducted an experiment where we built a large exclosure (9 ha) to protect brown lemmings (Lemmus trimucronatus) from avian and terrestrial predators. We tested the hypothesis that predation is a limiting factor for lemmings by measuring the demographic consequences of a predator reduction during the growth and peak phases of the cycle. We assessed summer (capture-mark-recapture methods) and winter (winter nest sampling) lemming demography on two grids located on Bylot Island, Nunavut, Canada from 2008 to 2015. The predator exclosure became fully effective in July 2013, allowing us to compare demography between the control and experimental grids before and during the treatment. Lemming abundance, survival and proportion of juveniles were similar between the two grids before the treatment. During the predator-reduction period, summer densities were on average 1.9× higher inside the experimental grid than the control and this effect was greatest for adult females and juveniles (densities 2.4× and 3.4× higher, respectively). Summer survival was 1.6× higher on the experimental grid than the control whereas body mass and proportion of juveniles were also slightly higher. Winter nest densities remained high inside the predator reduction grid following high summer abundance, but declined on the control grid. These results confirm that predation limits lemming population growth during the summer due to its negative impact on survival. However, it is possible that in winter, predation may interact with other factors affecting reproduction and ultimately population cycles.

Geographic Variation in Daily Temporal Activity Patterns of a Neotropical Marsupial (Gracilinanus agilis)

The temporal activity of animals is an outcome of both biotic and abiotic factors, which may vary along the geographic range of the species. Therefore, studies conducted with a species in different localities with distinct features could elucidate how animals deal with such factors. In this study, we used live traps equipped with timing devices to investigate the temporal activity patterns of the didelphid Gracilinanus agilis in two dry-woodland areas of the Brazilian savanna (Cerrado). These areas were located about 660 km apart, one in Central Brazil and the other in Southeastern Brazil. We compared such patterns considering both reproductive and non-reproductive periods, and how it varies as a function of temperature on a seasonal basis. In Central Brazil, we found a constant, and temperature-independent activity during the night in both reproductive and non-reproductive periods. On the other hand, in Southeastern Brazil, we detected a constant activity during the reproductive period, but in the non-reproductive period G. agilis presented a peak of activity between two and four hours after sunset. Moreover, in this latter we found a relation between temporal activity and temperature during the autumn and spring. These differences in temporal activity between areas, observed during the non-reproductive period, might be associated with the higher seasonal variability in temperature, and lower mean temperatures in the Southeastern site in comparison to the Central one. In Southeastern Brazil, the decrease in temperature during the non-reproductive season possibly forced G. agilis to be active only at certain hours of the night. However, likely due to the reproductive activities (intensive foraging and searching for mates) this marsupial showed constant, temperature-independent activity during the night in the reproductive period at both sites.

Seasonal demography of a cyclic lemming population in the Canadian Arctic

1. The causes of cyclical fluctuations in animal populations remain a controversial topic in ecology. Food limitation and predation are two leading hypotheses to explain small mammal population dynamics in northern environments. We documented the seasonal timing of the decline phases and demographic parameters (survival and reproduction) associated with population changes in lemmings, allowing us to evaluate some predictions from these two hypotheses. 2. We studied the demography of brown lemmings (Lemmus trimucronatus), a species showing 3- to 4-year population cycles in the Canadian Arctic, by combining capture-mark-recapture analysis of summer live-trapping with monitoring of winter nests over a 10-year period. We also examined the effects of some weather variables on survival. 3. We found that population declines after a peak occurred between the summer and winter period and not during the winter. During the summer, population growth was driven by change in survival, but not in fecundity or proportion of juveniles, whereas in winter population growth was driven by changes in late summer and winter reproduction. 4. We did not find evidence for direct density dependence on summer demographic parameters, though our analysis was constrained by the paucity of data during the low phase. Body mass, however, was highest in peak years. 5. Weather effects were detected only in early summer when lemming survival was positively related to snow depth at the onset of melt but negatively related to rainfall. 6. Our results show that high mortality causes population declines of lemmings during summer and fall, which suggests that predation is sufficient to cause population crashes, whereas high winter fecundity is the primary factor leading to population irruptions. The positive association between snow depth and early summer survival may be due to the protective cover offered by snow against predators. It is still unclear why reproduction remains low during the low phase.

Is pre-breeding prospecting behaviour affected by snow cover in the irruptive snowy owl? A test using state-space modelling and environmental data annotated via Movebank

BACKGROUND

Tracking individual animals using satellite telemetry has improved our understanding of animal movements considerably. Nonetheless, thorough statistical treatment of Argos datasets is often jeopardized by their coarse temporal resolution. State-space modelling can circumvent some of the inherent limitations of Argos datasets, such as the limited temporal resolution of locations and the lack of information pertaining to the behavioural state of the tracked individuals at each location. We coupled state-space modelling with environmental characterisation of modelled locations on a 3-year Argos dataset of 9 breeding snowy owls to assess whether searching behaviour for breeding sites was affected by snow cover and depth in an arctic predator that shows a lack of breeding site fidelity.

RESULTS

The state-space modelling approach allowed the discrimination of two behavioural states (searching and moving) during pre-breeding movements. Tracked snowy owls constantly switched from moving to searching behaviour during pre-breeding movements from mid-March to early June. Searching events were more likely where snow cover and depth was low. This suggests that snowy owls adapt their searching effort to environmental conditions encountered along their path.

CONCLUSIONS

This modelling technique increases our understanding of movement ecology and behavioural decisions of individual animals both locally and globally according to environmental variables.

The influence of weather and lemmings on spatiotemporal variation in the abundance of multiple avian guilds in the arctic

Climate change is occurring more rapidly in the Arctic than other places in the world, which is likely to alter the distribution and abundance of migratory birds breeding there. A warming climate can provide benefits to birds by decreasing spring snow cover, but increases in the frequency of summer rainstorms, another product of climate change, may reduce foraging opportunities for insectivorous birds. Cyclic lemming populations in the Arctic also influence bird abundance because Arctic foxes begin consuming bird eggs when lemmings decline. The complex interaction between summer temperature, precipitation, and the lemming cycle hinder our ability to predict how Arctic-breeding birds will respond to climate change. The main objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between annual variation in weather, spring snow cover, lemming abundance and spatiotemporal variation in the abundance of multiple avian guilds in a tundra ecosystem in central Nunavut, Canada: songbirds, shorebirds, gulls, loons, and geese. We spatially stratified our study area based on vegetation productivity, terrain ruggedness, and freshwater abundance, and conducted distance sampling to estimate strata-specific densities of each guild during the summers of 2010-2012. We also monitored temperature, rainfall, spring snow cover, and lemming abundance each year. Spatial variation in bird abundance matched what was expected based on previous ecological knowledge, but weather and lemming abundance also significantly influenced the abundance of some guilds. In particular, songbirds were less abundant during the cool, wet summer with moderate snow cover, and shorebirds and gulls declined with lemming abundance. The abundance of geese did not vary over time, possibly because benefits created by moderate spring snow cover were offset by increased fox predation when lemmings were scarce. Our study provides an example of a simple way to monitor the correlation between weather, spring snow cover, lemming abundance, and spatiotemporal variations in Arctic-breeding birds.