Seed rain composition responds to climate change in a subtropical forest

Recent climate change has been shown to alter aspects of forest plant demography, such as growth and mortality, but less attention has been focused on how climate change alters the reproduction of plant populations through time. We hypothesized that the plant seed production would respond to climate change, and that the response would differ according to plant life form and functional traits. We tested this hypothesis by examining climate change from 2005 to 2020 and by determining the temporal trends of seed rain and seed production from plants with different life forms (e.g., herbs, vines, trees, palms) and of tree species with different statures as well as leaf, seed and wood traits during 2014-2020. We also tested the correlation between meteorological variables and time series of seed rain using cross correlation analysis. We found increasing wetness (lower vapor pressure deficit) through time but with decreasing minimum relative humidity, which is a pattern consistent with trends seen in many other parts of the world. During the study period, seed production of shrubs and relative contribution of woody vines to total seed rain decreased, while relative contribution of palms to total seed rain and tree species with more conservative leaf traits increased their contribution to total seed rain. Overall, these trends were well explained by the trends of meteorological variables and the responses of these life forms to climate change in previous studies. Additionally, the increasingly conservative leaf traits were also consistent with shifts in traits following recovery from disturbance. Our results suggest that a trait-based approach may help to unveil trends that are not readily apparent by examining seed counts alone. The compositional change found in the seed rain may indicate future shifts in forest species composition and should be incorporated into future studies of forest modelling and projections under climate change.

Limits to reproduction and seed size-number trade-offs that shape forest dominance and future recovery

The relationships that control seed production in trees are fundamental to understanding the evolution of forest species and their capacity to recover from increasing losses to drought, fire, and harvest. A synthesis of fecundity data from 714 species worldwide allowed us to examine hypotheses that are central to quantifying reproduction, a foundation for assessing fitness in forest trees. Four major findings emerged. First, seed production is not constrained by a strict trade-off between seed size and numbers. Instead, seed numbers vary over ten orders of magnitude, with species that invest in large seeds producing more seeds than expected from the 1:1 trade-off. Second, gymnosperms have lower seed production than angiosperms, potentially due to their extra investments in protective woody cones. Third, nutrient-demanding species, indicated by high foliar phosphorus concentrations, have low seed production. Finally, sensitivity of individual species to soil fertility varies widely, limiting the response of community seed production to fertility gradients. In combination, these findings can inform models of forest response that need to incorporate reproductive potential.

Is there tree senescence? The fecundity evidence

Despite its importance for forest regeneration, food webs, and human economies, changes in tree fecundity with tree size and age remain largely unknown. The allometric increase with tree diameter assumed in ecological models would substantially overestimate seed contributions from large trees if fecundity eventually declines with size. Current estimates are dominated by overrepresentation of small trees in regression models. We combined global fecundity data, including a substantial representation of large trees. We compared size-fecundity relationships against traditional allometric scaling with diameter and two models based on crown architecture. All allometric models fail to describe the declining rate of increase in fecundity with diameter found for 80% of 597 species in our analysis. The strong evidence of declining fecundity, beyond what can be explained by crown architectural change, is consistent with physiological decline. A downward revision of projected fecundity of large trees can improve the next generation of forest dynamic models.

Plant-available soil nutrients have a limited influence on cone production patterns of individual white spruce trees

The resource budget model for mast seeding hypothesizes that soil nutrients proximately influence reproduction. Plants in high soil nutrient (particularly N) areas are predicted to have lower reproductive variability over time and higher mean reproduction. While often examined theoretically, there are relatively few empirical tests of this hypothesis. We quantified cone production of 110 individual white spruce (Picea glauca) trees over seven years and quantified plant-available soil macronutrients (N, Ca, K, Mg, P, S) in natural forest conditions across three years with different cone crop conditions. Each of these plant-available soil nutrients were correlated across years (r_s = 0.55-0.89; all > 0.81 for total-N); spatially, total-N availability varied 366-fold across trees. Plant-available soil nutrients did not influence variability or mean annual reproduction, contrary to nutrient perturbation experiments. We examined within-year nutrient and cone-production relationships, and observed significant positive relationships between reproduction and plant-available soil nutrients only in a low-reproduction year preceding a mast event. Both during a mast event and the following year, when overall cone production was very high or very low, there were no relationships. Both external drivers (e.g., weather) and internal resource budgets likely influence soil nutrient-reproduction relationships. These results suggest that plant-available soil nutrients may not be a large factor influencing mast-seeding patterns among individuals in this species.

Pulsed Immigration Events Can Facilitate Adaptation to Harsh Sink Environments

In nature, rates of dispersal vary greatly over time, yet most theoretical explorations of ecological and evolutionary dynamics to date have assumed constant movement rates. Here we examine how a particular pattern of temporal variation-periodic pulses of immigration-influences adaptation to a harsh environment, in which a species experiences conditions outside its niche requirements. Using both deterministic models and stochastic individual-based simulations, we show that for many ecological and genetic scenarios, temporally spacing out immigration events increases the probability that local adaptation is sufficient for persistence (i.e., niche evolution). When immigration events are too frequent, gene flow can hamper local adaptation in sexual species, but sufficiently infrequent pulses of immigration allow for repeated opportunities for adaptation with temporary escapes from gene flow during which local selection is unleashed. We develop versions of our models with and without density dependence for three different assumptions about the genetics underlying fitness (haploid, diploid, and quantitative genetic variation) so that our results may be applicable to a wide range of natural systems. Our study adds to a growing body of literature showing that temporal variation in migration rates can have significant effects on local adaptation and is among the first to show how such variation affects niche evolution.

Elevation-dependent responses of tree mast seeding to climate change over 45 years

We use seed count data from a New Zealand mono-specific mountain beech forest to test for decadal trends in seed production along an elevation gradient in relation to changes in climate. Seedfall was collected (1965 to 2009) from seed trays located on transect lines at fixed elevations along an elevation gradient (1020 to 1370 m). We counted the number of seeds in the catch of each tray, for each year, and determined the number of viable seeds. Climate variables were obtained from a nearby (<2 km) climate station (914-m elevation). Variables were the sum or mean of daily measurements, using periods within each year known to correlate with subsequent interannual variation in seed production. To determine trends in mean seed production, at each elevation, and climate variables, we used generalized least squares (GLS) regression. We demonstrate a trend of increasing total and viable seed production, particularly at higher elevations, which emerged from marked interannual variation. Significant changes in four seasonal climate variables had GLS regression coefficients consistent with predictions of increased seed production. These variables subsumed the effect of year in GLS regressions with a greater influence on seed production with increasing elevation. Regression models enforce a view that the sequence of climate variables was additive in their influence on seed production throughout a reproductive cycle spanning more than 2 years and including three summers. Models with the most support always included summer precipitation as the earliest variable in the sequence followed by summer maximum daily temperatures. We interpret this as reflecting precipitation driven increases in soil nutrient availability enhancing seed production at higher elevations rather than the direct effects of climate, stand development or rising atmospheric CO₂ partial pressures. Greater sensitivity of tree seeding at higher elevations to changes in climate reveals how ecosystem responses to climate change will be spatially variable.