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Chandan S, Bapaye J, Khan SR, Deliwala S, Mohan BP, Ramai D, Dhindsa BS, Goyal H, Kassab LL, Aziz M, Kamal F, Facciorusso A, Adler DG. Safety and efficacy of liquid nitrogen spray cryotherapy in Barrett's neoplasia - a comprehensive review and meta-analysis. Endosc Int Open 2022; 10:E1462-E1473. [PMID: 36397870 PMCID: PMC9666080 DOI: 10.1055/a-1906-4967] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/07/2022] [Accepted: 07/20/2022] [Indexed: 10/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Background and study aims Barrett's esophagus (BE) is a precursor condition to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), resulting in transformation of the squamous epithelium of distal esophagus to columnar-lined epithelium with intestinal metaplasia (IM). Liquid nitrogen spray cryotherapy (LNSC) is a non-contact method of BE eradication and has been used both as primary and salvage therapy. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the safety and efficacy of LNSC. Methods We searched multiple databases from inception through December 2021 to identify studies on use of LNSC for Barrett's neoplasia. Pooled estimates were calculated using random-effects model and results were expressed in terms of pooled proportions with relevant 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) of complete eradication (CE) of dysplasia(D), high grade dysplasia (HGD) and IM. Results Fourteen studies with 707 patients were included in our final analysis. Overall pooled rates of CE-D, CE-HGD and CE-IM were 80.8 % (CI 77.4-83.8; I 2 62), 90.3 % (CI 85.2-93.7; I 2 33) and 55.8 % (CI 51.7-59.8; I 2 73) with follow up ranging from 4.25 months to 69.7 months. In patients with follow up beyond 24 months, the rates of CE-D and CE-IM were 83.6 % (CI 77.6-88.2; I 2 60) and 54.7 % (CI 47.6-61.6; I 2 81). Among LNSC naïve patients with prior history of endoscopic resection, the rates were 79.9 % (CI 73.3-85.2; I 2 50) and 67.1 % (CI 59.5-73.8; I 2 0). Pooled rate of therapeutic failures, defined as lack of response to LNSC therapy, was 23.6 % (CI 19.4-28.3; I 2 73). Post LNSC strictures and perforation pooled rates were 4 % and 0.8 %, respectively, which are similar to those previously reported for RFA. Conclusions Our analysis suggests that liquid nitrogen spray cryotherapy is an acceptable treatment for BE in both ablation naïve and experienced patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Saurabh Chandan
- Division of Gastroenterology & Hepatology, CHI Creighton University Medical Center, Omaha, Nebraska, United States
| | - Jay Bapaye
- Department of Internal Medicine, Rochester General Hospital, Rochester, New York, New York, United States
| | - Shahab R. Khan
- Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, United States
| | - Smit Deliwala
- Internal Medicine, Hurley Medical Center, Flint, Michigan, United States
| | - Babu P. Mohan
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of Utah School of Medicine, Salt Lake City, Utah, United States
| | - Daryl Ramai
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of Utah School of Medicine, Salt Lake City, Utah, United States
| | - Banreet S. Dhindsa
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha, Nebraska, United States
| | - Hemant Goyal
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Wright Center for Graduate Medical Education, Scranton, Pennsylvania, Unites States
| | - Lena L. Kassab
- Internal Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, United States
| | - Muhammad Aziz
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of Toledo, Toledo, Ohio, United States
| | - Faisal Kamal
- Division of Gastroenterology, University of California-San Francisco, California, United States
| | - Antonio Facciorusso
- Gastroenterology Unit, Department of Surgical and Medical Sciences, University of Foggia, Foggia, Italy
| | - Douglas G. Adler
- Center for Advanced Therapeutic Endoscopy (CATE), Centura Health, Porter Adventist Hospital, Denver, Colorado, United States
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Hoefnagel SJ, Li S, Timmer EM, Meijer SL, Krishnadath KK. Increased PXR and Suppressed T-Cell Signaling Are Associated With Malignant Degeneration of Barrett's Esophagus. GASTRO HEP ADVANCES 2022; 2:63-71. [PMID: 39130159 PMCID: PMC11308616 DOI: 10.1016/j.gastha.2022.08.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/24/2022] [Accepted: 08/18/2022] [Indexed: 08/13/2024]
Abstract
Background and Aims Barrett's esophagus (BE) is the precursor lesion for esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). To detect EAC in early stage, patients with BE undergo endoscopic surveillance. Surveillance cohorts largely consist of nondysplastic BE (NDBE) patients with a low annual progression risk (<0.5%). Predictive biomarkers for malignant progression of NDBE could improve efficacy of surveillance. Biomarker research has mostly focused on aberrant protein expression on BE epithelial cells. Moreover, insight in cell signaling driving malignant transformation is unknown. This study uses a data-driven approach to analyze tumor-stroma interaction in NDBE which progressed to high-grade dysplasia or EAC. Methods In this case-control study, we performed RNA sequencing analysis on index NDBE biopsies from 6 patients who, during long-term follow-up, progressed and 7 who did not progress to high-grade dysplasia/EAC. For control samples, squamous and duodenum tissues from BE patients were analyzed. For validation, we used quantitative PCR. Results Significant differences in BE transcriptomic profiles between progressors and nonprogressors were found by principal component and differential expression analyses. Ingenuity pathway analysis indicated that 8 cell signaling pathways were significantly upregulated in the progressors, and 14 pathways were significantly downregulated. The most interesting finding was the upregulation of the xenobiotic metabolism pregnane X receptor signaling pathway in the progressor cohort, while of the downregulated pathways in progressors, several were related to the immune system. Conclusion These novel transcriptomic insights are fundamental for developing (chemo-)preventive therapies. These could be therapies, which protect against toxins, including biles, responsible for pregnane X receptor activation or which enhance protective immune mechanisms. The identified RNA markers are promising biomarkers for improving risk stratification in surveillance programs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sanne J.M. Hoefnagel
- Center for Experimental and Molecular Medicine, Amsterdam UMC, Location Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Amsterdam UMC, Location Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
- Cancer Center Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Shulin Li
- Center for Experimental and Molecular Medicine, Amsterdam UMC, Location Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
- Cancer Center Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Eva M. Timmer
- Center for Experimental and Molecular Medicine, Amsterdam UMC, Location Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
- Cancer Center Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Sybren L. Meijer
- Cancer Center Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Department of Pathology, Amsterdam UMC, Location Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Kausilia K. Krishnadath
- Center for Experimental and Molecular Medicine, Amsterdam UMC, Location Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Amsterdam UMC, Location Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
- Cancer Center Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Laboratory of Experimental Medicine and Paediatrics, Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University Hospital Antwerp, University of Antwerp, Edegem, Belgium
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Erasmus University MC, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
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Reyes CA, Young JN, Torres PR. First Reported Case of Femoral Facial Syndrome in an Adult: Esophageal Adenocarcinoma as a Progressive Gastrointestinal Manifestation. Cureus 2022; 14:e24285. [PMID: 35607579 PMCID: PMC9123342 DOI: 10.7759/cureus.24285] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 04/19/2022] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
A 42-year-old female with a past medical history of femoral facial syndrome (FFS) and years of gastroesophageal reflux disease presented to our clinic with symptoms of dysphagia and iron deficiency anemia. On upper endoscopy, esophageal stricture and adenocarcinoma were detected. Unfortunately, the patient developed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) multi-organ failure prior to cancer treatment and died with dignity after choosing comfort care measures. To the best of our knowledge, we report the first case of FFS in an adult patient. This case also uniquely highlights the rare gastrointestinal manifestations of FFS.
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Ventre S, Shahid H. Endoscopic therapies for Barrett's esophagus. Transl Gastroenterol Hepatol 2021; 6:62. [PMID: 34805584 DOI: 10.21037/tgh.2020.02.04] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/12/2019] [Accepted: 01/23/2020] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Abstract
The management of Barrett's esophagus (BE) has evolved as newer technologies and novel methods are developed. Endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR) or endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) are the initial interventions of choice for nodular BE, with ESD reserved for endoscopists highly trained in the technique and for larger lesions that would warrant en bloc resection. Resection should then be followed by ablative therapy, which remains first line in the treatment of BE with dysplasia. Although there is a myriad of ablation techniques available to the endoscopist, this review has found that radiofrequency ablation (RFA) continues to have the most robust safety and efficacy data to support its use despite a relatively high rate of recurrence. Cryotherapy and Hybrid-APC appear to be safe and effective as RFA alternatives, but further trials are still needed to directly compare their outcomes to RFA and ultimately guide changes in treatment decisions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Scott Ventre
- Department of Medicine, Rutgers-Robert Wood Johnson Medical School, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
| | - Haroon Shahid
- Division of Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Rutgers-Robert Wood Johnson Medical School, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
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Surveillance Cessation for Barrett's Esophagus: A Survey of Gastroenterologists. Am J Gastroenterol 2021; 116:1730-1733. [PMID: 34049319 PMCID: PMC9152734 DOI: 10.14309/ajg.0000000000001323] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2020] [Accepted: 05/06/2021] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Regular endoscopic surveillance is the gold standard Barrett's esophagus (BE) surveillance, yet harms of surveillance for some patients may outweigh the benefits. We sought to characterize physicians' BE surveillance cessation recommendations. METHODS We surveyed gastroenterologists about their BE surveillance recommendations varying patient age, comorbidity, and BE length. RESULTS Clinicians varied in recommendations for repeat surveillance. Patient age showed the largest variation among decisions, whereas BE length varied the least. DISCUSSION Age and comorbidities seem to influence BE surveillance cessation decisions, but with variation. Clear cessation guidelines balancing the risks and benefits for BE surveillance are warranted.
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Lipid droplet biogenesis and COX-2 pathway activation are triggered by Barrett's esophagus and adenocarcinoma, but not esophageal squamous cell carcinoma risk factors. Sci Rep 2021; 11:981. [PMID: 33441691 PMCID: PMC7807011 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-80035-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/11/2019] [Accepted: 11/24/2020] [Indexed: 12/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Esophageal cancer (EC) is an aggressive disease, presenting two main histological subtypes: adenocarcinoma (EAC) and squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). The two EC subtypes widely differ concerning virtually all factors. ESCC development is mainly associated with tobacco and alcohol abuse, whereas obesity and chronic gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) are important risk factors not only for EAC, but also for for Barrett’s esophagus (BE), an intestinal metaplasia that precedes EAC. Obesity triggers ectopic lipid droplets (LD) accumulation in non-adipose tissues. LD are organelles involved in cell metabolism, signaling, proliferation and production of inflammatory mediators. Therefore, the aim of this work was to investigate LD occurrence and role in EC. This study shows progressive LD levels increase along EAC development, in esophageal samples from non-obese through obese individuals, as well as BE, and EAC patients, whereas no significant changes were observed in ESCC samples, when compared to non-tumor samples. Additionally, in order to mimic BE and EAC risk factors exposure, a non-tumor esophageal cell line was incubated with oleic acid (OA) and acidified medium and/or deoxycholic acid (DCA), revealing a significant increment in LD amount as well as in COX-2 and CXCL-8 expression, and in IL-8 secretion. Further, COX-2 expression and LD amount presented a significant positive correlation and were detected co-localized in EAC, but not in ESCC, suggesting that LD may be the site for eicosanoid production in EAC. In conclusion, this study shows that obesity, and BE- and EAC-associated inflammatory stimuli result in a gradual increase of LD, that may be responsible for orchestrating inflammatory mediators’ production and/or action, thus contributing to BE and EAC genesis and progression.
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Omidvari AH, Ali A, Hazelton WD, Kroep S, Lee M, Naber SK, Lauren BN, Ostvar S, Richmond E, Kong CY, Rubenstein JH, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Luebeck G, Hur C, Inadomi J. Optimizing Management of Patients With Barrett's Esophagus and Low-Grade or No Dysplasia Based on Comparative Modeling. Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol 2020; 18:1961-1969. [PMID: 31816445 PMCID: PMC7447845 DOI: 10.1016/j.cgh.2019.11.058] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/08/2019] [Accepted: 11/15/2019] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS Endoscopic treatment is recommended for patients with Barrett's esophagus (BE) with high-grade dysplasia, yet clinical management recommendations are inconsistent for patients with BE without dysplasia (NDBE) or with low-grade dysplasia (LGD). We used a comparative modeling analysis to identify optimal management strategies for these patients. METHODS We used 3 independent population-based models to simulate cohorts of 60-year-old individuals with BE in the United States. We followed up each cohort until death without surveillance and treatment (natural disease progression), compared with 78 different strategies of management for patients with NDBE or LGD. We determined the optimal strategy using cost-effectiveness analyses, at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). RESULTS In the 3 models, the average cumulative incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma was 111 cases, with costs totaling $5.7 million per 1000 men with BE. Surveillance and treatment of men with BE prevented 23% to 75% of cases of esophageal adenocarcinoma, but increased costs to $6.2 to $17.3 million per 1000 men with BE. The optimal strategy was surveillance every 3 years for men with NDBE and treatment of LGD after confirmation by repeat endoscopy (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, $53,044/QALY). The average results for women were consistent with the results for men for LGD management, but the optimal surveillance interval for women with NDBE was 5 years (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, $36,045/QALY). CONCLUSIONS Based on analyses from 3 population-based models, the optimal management strategy for patient with BE and LGD is endoscopic eradication, but only after LGD is confirmed by a repeat endoscopy. The optimal strategy for patients with NDBE is endoscopic surveillance, using a 3-year interval for men and a 5-year interval for women.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amir-Houshang Omidvari
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
| | - Ayman Ali
- Institute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts; Tulane University School of Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana
| | - William D Hazelton
- Program in Computational Biology, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington
| | - Sonja Kroep
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Minyi Lee
- Institute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Steffie K Naber
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | | | - Sassan Ostvar
- Irving Medical Center, Columbia University, New York, New York
| | - Ellen Richmond
- Division of Cancer Prevention, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland
| | - Chun Yin Kong
- Institute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Joel H Rubenstein
- Veterans Affairs Center for Clinical Management Research, Ann Arbor, Michigan; Barrett's Esophagus Program, Division of Gastroenterology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan
| | - Iris Lansdorp-Vogelaar
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Georg Luebeck
- Program in Computational Biology, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington
| | - Chin Hur
- Institute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts; Irving Medical Center, Columbia University, New York, New York
| | - John Inadomi
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
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8
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Hoefnagel SJM, Mostafavi N, Timmer MR, Lau CT, Meijer SL, Wang KK, Krishnadath KK. A genomic biomarker-based model for cancer risk stratification of non-dysplastic Barrett's esophagus patients after extended follow up; results from Dutch surveillance cohorts. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0231419. [PMID: 32282835 PMCID: PMC7153893 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0231419] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/15/2019] [Accepted: 03/23/2020] [Indexed: 12/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Barrett’s esophagus is the only known mucosal precursor for the highly malignant esophageal adenocarcinoma. Malignant degeneration of non-dysplastic Barrett’s esophagus occurs in < 0.6% per year in Dutch surveillance cohorts. Therefore, it has been proposed to increase the surveillance intervals from 3 to 5 years, potentially increasing development of advanced stage interval cancers. To prevent such cases robust biomarkers for more optimal stratification over longer follow up periods for non-dysplastic Barrett’s patients are required. In this multi-center study, aberrations for chromosomes 7, 17, and structural abnormalities for c-MYC, CDKN2A, TP53, Her-2/neu and 20q assessed by DNA fluorescence in situ hybridization on brush cytology specimens, were used to determine marker scores and to perform clonal diversity measurements, as described previously. In this study, these genetic biomarkers were combined with clinical variables and analyzed to obtain the most efficient cancer prediction model after an extended period of follow-up (median time of 7 years) by applying Cox regression modeling, bootstrapping and leave-one-out analyses. A total of 334 patients with Barrett’s esophagus without dysplasia from 6 community hospitals (n = 220) and one academic center (n = 114) were included. The annual progression rate to high grade dysplasia and/or esophageal adenocarcinoma was 1.3%, and to adenocarcinoma alone 0.85%. A prediction model including age, Barrett circumferential length, and a clonicity score over the genomic set including chromosomes 7, 17, 20q and c-MYC, resulted in an area under the curve of 0.88. The sensitivity and specificity of this model were 0.91 and 0.38. The positive and negative predictive values were 0.13 (95% CI 0.09 to 0.19) and 0.97 (95% CI 0.93 to 0.99). We propose the implementation of the model to identify non-dysplastic Barrett’s patients, who are required to remain in surveillance programs with 3-yearly surveillance intervals from those that can benefit from less frequent or no surveillance.
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Affiliation(s)
- S. J. M. Hoefnagel
- Center for Experimental and Molecular Medicine, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Amsterdam UMC, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - N. Mostafavi
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Amsterdam UMC, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - M. R. Timmer
- Center for Experimental and Molecular Medicine, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Amsterdam UMC, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - C. T. Lau
- Center for Experimental and Molecular Medicine, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - S. L. Meijer
- Department of Pathology, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - K. K. Wang
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, United States of America
| | - K. K. Krishnadath
- Center for Experimental and Molecular Medicine, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Amsterdam UMC, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- * E-mail:
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Koulis A, Buckle A, Boussioutas A. Premalignant lesions and gastric cancer: Current understanding. World J Gastrointest Oncol 2019; 11:665-678. [PMID: 31558972 PMCID: PMC6755108 DOI: 10.4251/wjgo.v11.i9.665] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/23/2019] [Revised: 05/29/2019] [Accepted: 08/21/2019] [Indexed: 02/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Over the last two decades there has been a broad paradigm shift in our understanding of gastric cancer (GC) and its premalignant states from gross histological models to increasingly precise molecular descriptions. In this review we reflect upon the historic approaches to describing premalignant lesions and GC, highlight the current molecular landscape and how this could inform future risk assessment prevention strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Athanasios Koulis
- Upper Gastrointestinal Translational Laboratory, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne 3000, Australia
- the Sir Peter MacCallum Department of Surgical Oncology, the University of Melbourne, Melbourne 3010, Australia
| | - Andrew Buckle
- Upper Gastrointestinal Translational Laboratory, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne 3000, Australia
- the Sir Peter MacCallum Department of Surgical Oncology, the University of Melbourne, Melbourne 3010, Australia
| | - Alex Boussioutas
- Upper Gastrointestinal Translational Laboratory, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne 3000, Australia
- the Sir Peter MacCallum Department of Surgical Oncology, the University of Melbourne, Melbourne 3010, Australia
- Department of Medicine, Royal Melbourne Hospital, University of Melbourne, Parkville, 3050, Australia
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Ireland CJ, Gordon AL, Thompson SK, Watson DI, Whiteman DC, Reed RL, Esterman A. Validation of a risk prediction model for Barrett's esophagus in an Australian population. Clin Exp Gastroenterol 2018; 11:135-142. [PMID: 29628770 PMCID: PMC5878665 DOI: 10.2147/ceg.s158627] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Esophageal adenocarcinoma is a disease that has a high mortality rate, the only known precursor being Barrett's esophagus (BE). While screening for BE is not cost-effective at the population level, targeted screening might be beneficial. We have developed a risk prediction model to identify people with BE, and here we present the external validation of this model. Materials and methods A cohort study was undertaken to validate a risk prediction model for BE. Individuals with endoscopy and histopathology proven BE completed a questionnaire containing variables previously identified as risk factors for this condition. Their responses were combined with data from a population sample for analysis. Risk scores were derived for each participant. Overall performance of the risk prediction model in terms of calibration and discrimination was assessed. Results Scores from 95 individuals with BE and 636 individuals from the general population were analyzed. The Brier score was 0.118, suggesting reasonable overall performance. The area under the receiver operating characteristic was 0.83 (95% CI 0.78-0.87). The Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was p=0.14. Minimizing false positives and false negatives, the model achieved a sensitivity of 74% and a specificity of 73%. Conclusion This study has validated a risk prediction model for BE that has a higher sensitivity than previous models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Colin J Ireland
- School of Nursing and Midwifery, Division of Health Sciences, University of South Australia, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Andrea L Gordon
- School of Pharmacy and Medical Science, Division of Health Sciences, University of South Australia, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Sarah K Thompson
- Discipline of Surgery, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - David I Watson
- Department of Surgery, Flinders University, Bedford Park, SA, Australia
| | - David C Whiteman
- Population Health Department, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Herston, QLD, Australia
| | - Richard L Reed
- Discipline of General Practice, Flinders University, Bedford Park, SA, Australia
| | - Adrian Esterman
- School of Nursing and Midwifery, Division of Health Sciences, University of South Australia, Adelaide, SA, Australia.,Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Cairns, QLD, Australia
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