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Ostojic A, Mahmud N, Reddy KR. Surgical risk stratification in patients with cirrhosis. Hepatol Int 2024; 18:876-891. [PMID: 38472607 DOI: 10.1007/s12072-024-10644-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/05/2023] [Accepted: 01/15/2024] [Indexed: 03/14/2024]
Abstract
Individuals with cirrhosis experience higher morbidity and mortality rates than the general population, irrespective of the type or scope of surgery. This increased risk is attributed to adverse effects of liver disease, encompassing coagulation dysfunction, altered metabolism of anesthesia and sedatives, immunologic dysfunction, hemorrhage related to varices, malnutrition and frailty, impaired wound healing, as well as diminished portal blood flow, overall hepatic circulation, and hepatic oxygen supply during surgical procedures. Therefore, a frequent clinical dilemma is whether surgical interventions should be pursued in patients with cirrhosis. Several risk scores are widely used to aid in the decision-making process, each with specific advantages and limitations. This review aims to discuss the preoperative risk factors in patients with cirrhosis, describe and compare surgical risk assessment models used in everyday practice, provide insights into the surgical risk according to the type of surgery and present recommendations for optimizing those with cirrhosis for surgical procedures. As the primary focus is on currently available risk models, the review describes the predictive value of each model, highlighting its specific advantages and limitations. Furthermore, for models that do not account for the type of surgical procedure to be performed, the review suggests incorporating both patient-related and surgery-related risks into the decision-making process. Finally, we provide an algorithm for the preoperative assessment of patients with cirrhosis before elective surgery as well as guidance perioperative management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ana Ostojic
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, University Hospital Center Zagreb, Kispaticeva 12, Zagreb, 10000, Croatia
| | - Nadim Mahmud
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of Pennsylvania, 2 Dulles, 3400 Spruce Street, HUP, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA
| | - K Rajender Reddy
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of Pennsylvania, 2 Dulles, 3400 Spruce Street, HUP, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA.
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Praktiknjo M, Trebicka J. Operating under pressure: Is there a place for preoperative TIPS? JHEP Rep 2024; 6:101034. [PMID: 38425449 PMCID: PMC10899019 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhepr.2024.101034] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/24/2023] [Revised: 12/19/2023] [Accepted: 01/12/2024] [Indexed: 03/02/2024] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Michael Praktiknjo
- Department of Medicine B, Gastroenterology, Hepatology, Endocrinology, Infectious Diseases, Universitätsklinikum Münster, Münster, Germany
| | - Jonel Trebicka
- Department of Medicine B, Gastroenterology, Hepatology, Endocrinology, Infectious Diseases, Universitätsklinikum Münster, Münster, Germany
- European Foundation for the study of Chronic Liver Failure (EF CLiF), Barcelona, Spain
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Mahmud N, Goldberg DS, Abu-Gazala S, Lewis JD, Kaplan DE. Modeling Optimal Clinical Thresholds for Elective Abdominal Hernia Repair in Patients With Cirrhosis. JAMA Netw Open 2022; 5:e2231601. [PMID: 36098965 PMCID: PMC9471978 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.31601] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
IMPORTANCE Patients with cirrhosis have increased risk of postoperative mortality. Several models have been developed to estimate this risk; however, current risk estimation scores cannot compare surgical risk with the risk of not operating. OBJECTIVE To identify clinical optimal thresholds to favor operative or nonoperative management for a common cirrhosis surgical scenario, the symptomatic abdominal hernia. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This was a Markov cohort decision analytical modeling study evaluating elective surgery vs nonoperative management for a symptomatic abdominal hernia in a patient with cirrhosis. Transition probabilities and utilities were derived from the literature and from data using an established cirrhosis cohort in the Veterans Health Administration. Participants included patients who were referred to a surgery clinic for a symptomatic abdominal hernia. Data were obtained from patients diagnosed with cirrhosis between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2018. Data were analyzed from January 1 to May 1, 2022. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Expected quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were estimated for each pathway and iterated over baseline model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) scores ranging from 6 to 25. Markov models were cycled over a 5-year time horizon. RESULTS A total 2740 patients with cirrhosis (median [IQR] age, 62 [56-66] years; 2699 [98.5%] men) were referred to a surgery clinic for a symptomatic abdominal hernia; 1752 patients (63.9%) did not receive surgery. The median (IQR) follow-up was 42.1 (25.3-70.0) months. Using this cohort to estimate the mortality risk of operative and nonoperative pathways, an initial MELD-Na threshold of 21.3 points, below which surgery was associated with maximized QALYs was identified. Nonoperative management was associated with increased QALYs above this MELD-Na threshold. Although more patients experienced death with a surgical treatment decision across all initial MELD-Na values, this was counterbalanced by increased time spent in a resolved hernia state associated with increased utility. Model results were sensitive to the probability of hernia recurrence and hernia incarceration and utility decrement in the symptomatic hernia state. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This decision analytical model study found that elective surgical treatment for a symptomatic abdominal hernia was favored even in the setting of relatively high MELD-Na scores. Patient symptoms, hernia-specific characteristics, and surgeon and center expertise may potentially impact the optimal strategy, emphasizing the importance of shared decision-making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nadim Mahmud
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia
- Department of Medicine, Corporal Michael J. Crescenz VA Medical Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
- Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology & Informatics, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia
- Leonard David Institute of Health Economics, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia
| | - David S. Goldberg
- Division of Digestive Health and Liver Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, Miami, Florida
| | - Samir Abu-Gazala
- Division of Transplant Surgery, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia
| | - James D. Lewis
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia
- Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology & Informatics, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia
- Leonard David Institute of Health Economics, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia
| | - David E. Kaplan
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia
- Department of Medicine, Corporal Michael J. Crescenz VA Medical Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
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Mahmud N, Fricker Z, Lewis JD, Taddei TH, Goldberg DS, Kaplan DE. Risk Prediction Models for Postoperative Decompensation and Infection in Patients With Cirrhosis: A Veterans Affairs Cohort Study. Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol 2022; 20:e1121-e1134. [PMID: 34246794 PMCID: PMC8741885 DOI: 10.1016/j.cgh.2021.06.050] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/14/2021] [Revised: 06/08/2021] [Accepted: 06/18/2021] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS Patients with cirrhosis have an increased risk of postoperative mortality for a range of surgeries; however, they are also at risk of postoperative complications such as infection and cirrhosis decompensation. To date, there are no prediction scores that specifically risk stratify patients for these morbidities. METHODS This was a retrospective study using data of patients with cirrhosis who underwent diverse surgeries in the Veterans Health Administration. Validated algorithms and/or manual adjudication were used to ascertain postoperative decompensation and postoperative infection through 90 days. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate prediction models in derivation and validation sets using variables from the recently-published Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated with Liver Disease (VOCAL)-Penn cirrhosis surgical risk scores for postoperative mortality. Models were compared with the Mayo risk score, Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD)-sodium, and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) scores. RESULTS A total 4712 surgeries were included; patients were predominantly male (97.2 %), white (63.3 %), and with alcohol-related liver disease (35.3 %). Through 90 postoperative days, 8.7 % of patients experienced interval decompensation, and 4.5 % infection. Novel VOCAL-Penn prediction models for decompensation demonstrated good discrimination for interval decompensation (C-statistic 0.762 vs 0.663 Mayo vs 0.603 MELD-sodium vs 0.560 CTP; P < .001); however, discrimination was only fair for postoperative infection (C-statistic 0.666 vs 0.592 Mayo [P = .13] vs 0.502 MELD-sodium [P < .001] vs 0.503 CTP [P < .001]). The model for interval decompensation had excellent calibration in both derivation and validation sets. CONCLUSION We report the derivation and internal validation of a novel, parsimonious prediction model for postoperative decompensation in patients with cirrhosis. This score demonstrated superior discrimination and calibration as compared with existing clinical standards, and will be available at www.vocalpennscore.com.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nadim Mahmud
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Leonard David Institute of Health Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Department of Medicine, Corporal Michael J. Crescenz VA Medical Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology & Informatics, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
| | - Zachary Fricker
- Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology, and Nutrition, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - James D Lewis
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology & Informatics, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
| | - Tamar H Taddei
- Division of Digestive Diseases, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut; VA Connecticut Healthcare System, West Haven, Connecticut
| | - David S Goldberg
- Division of Digestive Health and Liver Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, Miami, Florida
| | - David E Kaplan
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Department of Medicine, Corporal Michael J. Crescenz VA Medical Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
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Aryan M, McPhail J, Ravi S, Harris P, Allamneni C, Shoreibah M. Perioperative Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunt Is Associated With Decreased Postoperative Complications in Decompensated Cirrhotics Undergoing Abdominal Surgery. Am Surg 2022; 88:1613-1620. [PMID: 35113676 DOI: 10.1177/00031348211069784] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Operative risk in patients with cirrhosis is related to the severity of liver disease and nature of procedure. Pre and postoperative portal decompression via transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) are logical approaches to facilitate surgery and improve postoperative outcomes. We compared postoperative outcomes of decompensated cirrhotics undergoing abdominal surgery either with or without perioperative TIPS placement. METHODS We performed a retrospective review of 41 decompensated cirrhotic patients who had abdominal surgery from 2010-2019 at the University of Alabama at Birmingham. Patients were stratified based on having received either perioperative TIPS or no TIPS. Demographics, laboratory data, perioperative TIPS status and postoperative complications were compared between the 2 groups using Fisher exact test and Student 2 sample t-test. RESULTS Group 1 consisted of 28 patients who had TIPS procedure, with 21 being preoperative and 7 being postoperative. Group 2 had 13 patients who had abdominal surgery without TIPS. When compared to those with perioperative TIPS, patients without TIPS had a significantly increased incidence of postoperative ascites (33% vs 77%, P = .0026), infection (18% vs 54%, P = .028), and acute kidney injury (AKI) (14% vs 46%, P = .0485). Additionally, postoperative Model of End Stage Liver Disease Sodium score was significantly higher in patients without TIPS (22 ± 4.74) when compared to those who had TIPS (17.14 ± 5.48) (P = .009). DISCUSSION Perioperative TIPS placement in decompensated cirrhotics was associated with decreased postoperative ascites, infection, and AKI when compared to those without TIPS. Further studies are needed to validate our findings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mahmoud Aryan
- Tinsley Harrison Internal Medicine Residency, Department of Medicine, 9968University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA
| | - James McPhail
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, 9968University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA
| | - Sujan Ravi
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, 9968University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA
| | - Patrick Harris
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, 3989Baylor University, Houston, TX, USA
| | - Chaitanya Allamneni
- Division of Digestive Diseases, Department of Medicine, 1371Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Mohamed Shoreibah
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, 9968University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA
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Mahmud N, Kaplan DE, Taddei TH, Goldberg DS. Frailty Is a Risk Factor for Postoperative Mortality in Patients With Cirrhosis Undergoing Diverse Major Surgeries. Liver Transpl 2021; 27:699-710. [PMID: 33226691 PMCID: PMC8517916 DOI: 10.1002/lt.25953] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2020] [Revised: 10/28/2020] [Accepted: 11/14/2020] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
With a rising burden of cirrhosis surgeries, understanding risk factors for postoperative mortality is more salient than ever. The role of baseline frailty has not been assessed in this context. We evaluated the association between patient frailty and postoperative risk among diverse patients with cirrhosis and determined if frailty improves prognostication of cirrhosis surgical risk scores. This was a retrospective cohort study of U.S. veterans with cirrhosis identified between 2008 and 2016 who underwent nontransplant major surgery. Frailty was ascertained using the Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS). Cox regression analysis was used to investigate the impact of patient frailty on postoperative mortality. Logistic regression was used to identify incremental changes in discrimination for postoperative mortality when frailty was added to the risk prediction models, including the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-sodium (MELD-Na), Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), Mayo Risk Score (MRS), and Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated With Liver Disease (VOCAL)-Penn. A total of 804 cirrhosis surgeries were identified. The majority of patients (48.5%) had high-risk frailty at baseline (HFRS >15). In adjusted Cox regression models, categories of increasing frailty scores were associated with poorer postoperative survival. For example, intermediate-risk frailty (HFRS 5-15) conferred a 1.77-fold increased hazard relative to low-risk frailty (HFRS, <5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06-2.95; P = 0.03). High-risk frailty demonstrated a similarly increased hazard (hazard ratio, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.05-2.88; P = 0.03), suggesting a threshold effect of frailty on postoperative mortality. The incorporation of frailty improved discrimination of MELD, MELD-Na, and CTP for postoperative mortality, but did not do so for the MRS or VOCAL-Penn score. Patient frailty was an additional important predictor of cirrhosis surgical risk. The incorporation of preoperative frailty assessments may help to risk stratify patients, especially in settings where the MELD-Na and CTP are commonly applied.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nadim Mahmud
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA,Gastroenterology Section, Corporal Michael J. Crescenz VA Medical Center, Philadelphia, PA,Leonard David Institute of Health Economics, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA,Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Informatics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA
| | - David E. Kaplan
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA,Gastroenterology Section, Corporal Michael J. Crescenz VA Medical Center, Philadelphia, PA
| | - Tamar H. Taddei
- Division of Digestive Diseases, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT,VA Connecticut Healthcare System, West Haven, CT
| | - David S. Goldberg
- Division of Digestive Health and Liver Diseases, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, Miami, FL
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