Prognostic nomogram integrated baseline serum lipids for patients with non-esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

A Competing Risk Nomogram for Prediction of Prognosis in Patients With Primary Squamous Cell Thyroid Carcinoma

Objective: Primary squamous cell thyroid carcinoma (PSCTC) is an extremely rare carcinoma, accounting for less than 1% of all thyroid carcinomas. However, the factors contributing to PSCTC outcomes remain unclear. This study aimed to identify the prognostic factors and develop a prognostic predictive model for patients with PSCTC. Methods: The analysis included patients diagnosed with thyroid carcinoma between 1975 and 2016 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Prognostic differences among the 5 pathological types of thyroid carcinomas were analyzed. To determine prognostic factors in PSCTC patients, the Cox regression model and Fine-Gray competing risk model were utilized. Based on the Fine-Gray competing risk model, a nomogram was established for predicting the prognosis of patients with PSCTC. Results: A total of 198,757 thyroid carcinoma patients, including 218 PSCTC patients, were identified. We found that PSCTC and anaplastic thyroid cancer had the worst prognosis among the 5 pathological types of thyroid carcinoma (P < .001). According to univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses, age (71-95 years) was an independent risk factor for poorer overall survival and disease-specific survival in PSCTC patients. Using Fine-Gray regression analysis, the total number of in situ/malignant tumors for patient (Number 1) (≥2) was identified as an independent protective factor for prognosis of PSCTC. The area under the curve, the concordance index (C-index), calibration curves and decision curve analysis revealed that the nomogram was capable of predicting the prognosis of PSCTC patients accurately. Conclusion: The competing risk nomogram is highly accurate in predicting prognosis for patients with PSCTC, which may help clinicians to optimize individualized treatment decisions.

Post-treatment serum triglyceride: An effective biomarker for body fat mass and overall survival in esophageal squamous cell cancer patients treated with chemoradiotherapy

OBJECTIVES

Although lipids have been assessed for their possible roles in cancer survival prediction, studies on the association between serum triglyceride (TG) levels and the prognosis of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients are limited. This study aimed to evaluate whether serum TG is associated with outcomes in patients with ESCC and investigate any interaction between serum TG and clinical parameters, especially body fat mass.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a prospective case study on patients diagnosed with ESCC between March 2012 and November 2018. We measured patients' serum TG levels before and after treatment. The association between serum TG and overall survival (OS) was evaluated using hazard ratios. We sought to determine a threshold point using optimal stratification. Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier curves and a Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

Of the 257 participants diagnosed with ESCC, 200 (77.8%) were men. Median follow-up time was 22.4 months (range 3.3-92.4 months). Using univariate Cox proportional hazard analysis and subsequent multivariate analysis, post-TG levels, Karnofsky performance scores, T stages, and chemotherapy cycles were shown to be independent prognostic factors for OS (p < 0.05). The post-TG cut-off point to best classify patients with respect to time to mortality was 1.47 mmol/L. A post-TG level of ≥ 1.47 mmol/L could independently predict a better OS (hazard ratio: 0.55, 95% confidence interval: 0.37-0.79). The associations were consistent across the subtypes of clinical parameters. Furthermore, the post-body mass index, post-subcutaneous adipose tissue area, post-visceral adipose tissue area, post-total adiposity tissue area, and post-total adipose density exhibited a strong positive association with post-TG levels.

CONCLUSION

Post-TG levels were found to be a significant positive prognostic biomarker for body fat mass and OS in ESCC patients.

A novel nomogram with preferable capability in predicting the overall survival of patients after radical esophageal cancer resection based on accessible clinical indicators: A comparison with AJCC staging

BACKGROUND

Esophageal cancer (EC) is a malignant tumor with high mortality. Nomogram is an important tool used in clinical prognostic assessment. We aimed to establish a novel nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) of EC patients after radical esophagectomy.

METHODS

Data pertaining to the survival, demography, and clinicopathology of 311 EC patients who underwent radical esophagectomy were retrospectively investigated. The nomogram was established based on Cox hazard regression analysis. The calibration curves and Harrell's concordance index (C-index) were used to verify the predictive accuracy and ROC curves were used to assess the efficacy of the nomogram. Kaplan-Meier curves showed the prognostic value of the related risk classification system. Pearson correlation test was performed to determine the correlation between the risk classification system and TNM staging.

RESULTS

The median OS and 5-year survival rates in the primary and validation cohorts were 44 months and 29.8%, and 52 months and 27.1%, respectively. We used six independent prognostic factors-age, Sex, AGR, PRL, N stage, and PNI-in the nomogram. The C-index of nomogram was 0.75 and 0.70 in the primary and validation cohorts, respectively. Calibration curves indicated high consistency between actual and predicted OS. ROC curves showed that nomogram has a better efficacy compared with TNM staging in both cohorts. Patients were divided into three risk groups according to the total nomogram score, the median OS in each group was significantly different in both cohorts. Furthermore, the risk classification system was strongly correlated with the T and N staging system and exhibited a better OS prediction capability.

CONCLUSIONS

We established a novel and practical nomogram with a subordinate risk classification system to predict the OS of patients after radical esophagectomy. Compared with AJCC staging, this nomogram had preferable clinical capability in terms of individual prognosis assessment.

Integrated analysis of serum lipid profile for predicting clinical outcomes of patients with malignant biliary tumor

Background

Serum lipids were reported to be the prognostic factors of various cancers, but their prognostic value in malignant biliary tumor (MBT) patients remains unclear. Thus we aim to assess and compare prognosis values of different serum lipids, and construct a novel prognostic nomogram based on serum lipids.

Methods

Patients with a confirmed diagnosis of MBT at our institute from 2003 to 2017 were retrospectively reviewed. Prognosis-related factors were identified via univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. Then the novel prognostic nomogram and a 3-tier staging system were constructed based on these factors and further compared to the TNM staging system.

Results

A total of 368 patients were included in this study. Seven optimal survival-related factors—TC/HDL >  10.08, apolipoprotein B >  0.9 g/L, lipoprotein> 72 mg/L, lymph node metastasis, radical cure, CA199 > 37 U/mL, and tumor differentiation —were included to construct the prognostic nomogram. The C-indexes in training and validation sets were 0.738 and 0.721, respectively. Besides, ROC curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis all suggested favorable discrimination and predictive ability. The nomogram also performed better predictive ability than the TNM system and nomogram without lipid parameters. And the staging system based on nomogram also presented better discriminative ability than TNM system (P < 0.001).

Conclusions

The promising prognostic nomogram based on lipid parameters provided an intuitive method for performing survival prediction and facilitating individualized treatment and was a great complement to the TNM staging system in predicting overall survival.

Low Expression of APOB mRNA or Its Hypermethylation Predicts Favorable Overall Survival in Patients with Low-Grade Glioma

Background

This study was performed to explore the clinical and prognostic significance of APOB mRNA expression, DNA methylation and APOB mutation in patients with low-grade glioma (LGG).

Methods

Bioinformatic analysis was conducted using genomic, clinical and survival data from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and Chinese Glioma Genome Atlas (CGGA) databases. Serum APOB protein levels were measured via immunoturbidimetry in 150 patients with LGG and 100 healthy controls from Hubei General Hospital.

Results

There was a negative association between the levels of APOB mRNA and DNA methylation (r=−0.355, P<0.0001) in patients with LGG from the TCGA database. Additionally, LGG patients with low levels of APOB mRNA exhibited better overall survival (OS) than those with high levels of APOB mRNA (HR=0.637, P=0.0085). The survival time of LGG patients with APOB hypermethylation was markedly longer than that of patients with APOB hypomethylation (HR=0.423, P=0.0185). The prognostic significance of APOB mRNA and DNA methylation was also validated with the CGGA cohort, and a similar conclusion was reached. APOB gene mutations were observed in 3% of patients with LGG from the TCGA database, and no association was detected between APOB mutations and OS (P=0.164). Furthermore, the levels of APOB protein were much lower in patients with LGG than in normal individuals (P=0.0022), and the expression of APOB protein was markedly different among groups when stratified by histological type (P<0.0001) and histological-molecular classification (P<0.0001).

Conclusion

APOB mRNA expression is negatively regulated by DNA methylation in patients with LGG. Low expression or hypermethylation of APOB might predict relatively favorable survival in patients with LGG.

The Prognostic Value of Preoperative Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index in Patients with Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

Purpose

Patients with malignancy are more likely to develop nutritional problems. The Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI) is a new prognostic index for evaluating nutritional status. The objective of this study was to assess if preoperative GNRI could be a prognostic factor for patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) who underwent radical surgery.

Patients and Methods

This study included 282 consecutive patients with incident pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma who were treated with radical surgery. The Cox regression analysis was performed to calculate the overall survival (OS) and assess the prognostic factors. A nomogram was developed based on the results of the multivariate analysis, and the predictive accuracy of the nomogram was assessed.

Results

Among the 282 patients, there are 117 males and 165 females. The patients had a mean age of 58.7 ±13.5 years, with the median follow-up time of 72.9 months (interquartile range, 0.7 to 115.2 months). They were classified into abnormal (GNRI ≤ 98) and normal (GNRI > 98) GNRI groups, respectively. Multivariate Cox analysis showed that age (HR = 1.023), drinking history (HR = 1.453), tumor grade (HR = 1.633), TNM stage (HR = 1.921), and GNRI (HR = 1.757) were significantly associated with OS. Based on the above variables, the nomogram was established. The concordance index (C-index) and time-dependent receiver operating characteristics curve (tdROC) showed the nomogram was superior to TNM grade and tumor grade in predicting the OS of patients with PDAC.

Conclusion

GNRI could be a useful prognostic indicator in patients with PDAC who received surgery. Based on the GNRI and the other clinical indicators, we developed a nomogram model that can provide an accurate estimation of OS in patients with PDAC after radical surgery.