Soderstrom CA, Kufera JA, Dischinger PC, Kerns TJ, Murphy JG, Lowenfels A. Predictive model to identify trauma patients with blood alcohol concentrations > or = 50 mg/dl.
THE JOURNAL OF TRAUMA 1997;
42:67-73. [PMID:
9003260 DOI:
10.1097/00005373-199701000-00012]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE
To develop a simple model for identification of trauma patients who are likely to have a blood alcohol concentration > or = 50 mg/dL (BAC + 50).
METHODS
Demographic, clinical, and BAC data were collected from the clinical trauma registry and toxicology data base at a Level I trauma center. Logistic regression was used to analyze data from 11,206 patients to develop a predictive model, which was validated using a subsequent cohort of 3,523 patients.
RESULTS
In the model development cohort, alcohol was detected in the blood of 3,180 BAC-tested patients (28.7%), of whom 91.2% had a BAC + 50 status. Preliminary analysis revealed associations between a BAC + 50 status and sex, age, race, injury type (intentional vs. unintentional), and time of injury (night vs. day and weekend vs. weekday). A predictive model using four attributes (sex and injury type) identified patients at low, medium, and high risk for being BAC + 50. The model was validated using the second group of patients.
CONCLUSION
Injured patients with a high probability of being alcohol positive can be identified using a simple scoring system based on readily available demographic and clinical information.
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