Classifying risk level of gastric cancer: Evaluation of questionnaire-based prediction model

Development, validation, and evaluation of a risk assessment tool for personalized screening of gastric cancer in Chinese populations

BACKGROUND

Effective risk prediction models are lacking for personalized endoscopic screening of gastric cancer (GC). We aimed to develop, validate, and evaluate a questionnaire-based GC risk assessment tool for risk prediction and stratification in the Chinese population.

METHODS

In this three-stage multicenter study, we first selected eligible variables by Cox regression models and constructed a GC risk score (GCRS) based on regression coefficients in 416,343 subjects (aged 40-75 years) from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB, development cohort). In the same age range, we validated the GCRS effectiveness in 13,982 subjects from another independent Changzhou cohort (validation cohort) as well as in 5348 subjects from an endoscopy screening program in Yangzhou. Finally, we categorized participants into low (bottom 20%), intermediate (20-80%), and high risk (top 20%) groups by the GCRS distribution in the development cohort.

RESULTS

The GCRS using 11 questionnaire-based variables demonstrated a Harrell's C-index of 0.754 (95% CI, 0.745-0.762) and 0.736 (95% CI, 0.710-0.761) in the two cohorts, respectively. In the validation cohort, the 10-year risk was 0.34%, 1.05%, and 4.32% for individuals with a low (≤ 13.6), intermediate (13.7~30.6), and high (≥ 30.7) GCRS, respectively. In the endoscopic screening program, the detection rate of GC varied from 0.00% in low-GCRS individuals, 0.27% with intermediate GCRS, to 2.59% with high GCRS. A proportion of 81.6% of all GC cases was identified from the high-GCRS group, which represented 28.9% of all the screened participants.

CONCLUSIONS

The GCRS can be an effective risk assessment tool for tailored endoscopic screening of GC in China. Risk Evaluation for Stomach Cancer by Yourself (RESCUE), an online tool was developed to aid the use of GCRS.

Combined risk factors and risk of upper gastrointestinal cancer mortality in the Linxian general population

We aimed to explore the association of combined risk factors with risk of death from upper gastrointestinal (UGI) cancer, including esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), gastric cardia carcinoma (GCC) and gastric noncardia carcinoma (GNCC) in the Linxian Nutrition Intervention Trial (NIT) cohort. The NIT cohort included 29 584 healthy adults. A combined risk score (CRS) was calculated using a point system method based on 10 risk factors collected at baseline, including gender, smoking, alcohol drinking, body mass index, family history of UGI cancer, drinking tap water, tooth loss and consumption of fresh fruit, eggs and meat. Possible score ranged from 0 to 31, and higher score indicated as poorer health status. Subjects were divided into three groups by the CRS (<12 points, 12 to 20 points and >20 points). The group of CRS <12 points was considered as the reference. During the 30-year follow-up, we identified 4553 UGI cancer deaths. Compared to subjects with a CRS <12 points, the adjusted HRs for CRS of 12 to 20 points and >20 points were 1.69 (95% CI: 1.56-1.83) and 3.06 (95% CI: 2.82-3.33) for UGI cancer mortality, respectively (P_trend  < .001). Comparable associations were also observed for ESCC, GCC and GNCC mortality. Results remained similar across different age groups (P_interaction  > .05). All HRs observed in the second half follow-up period were stronger than that observed in the first half follow-up period. Our study indicated that higher CRS was associated with increased risk of UGI cancer mortality. Appropriate measures should be taken to reduce unhealthy lifestyles.

Gastric cancer: Epidemiology, risk factors and prevention strategies

Gastric cancer (GC) is a global health problem, with more than 1 million people newly diagnosed with GC worldwide each year. GC is more prevalent in less developed countries than in more developed countries. About half of all GC cases worldwide occur in East Asia, notably China. Globally, overall incidence rates of GC are declining, which is potentially attributed to a decrease in Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection and the use of refrigeration to preserve foods rather than salt. GC is a multifactorial disease, and its occurrence and development were impacted by environmental and genetic factors. H. pylori infection is the primary risk factor for GC, especially for non-cardia. The prognosis of GC is poor due to stages at the first diagnosis. The 5-year survival rate is less than 10% when patients are diagnosed at an advanced stage, but the rate is as high as 85% if patients are detected at an earlier stage. Endoscopic screening can potentially prevent GC by early diagnosis and early treatment and has been widely adopted in screening programs in East Asian countries, such as Japan and Korea. This review summarizes updated epidemiological aspects, risk factors, and prevention strategies of GC in recent years to help researchers determine the most effective intervention strategies for reducing risk of GC.