The Cost-Effectiveness of Universal Varicella Vaccination in Italy: A Model-Based Assessment of Vaccination Strategies

The clinical and economic costs associated with regional disparities in varicella vaccine coverage in Italy over 50 years (2020-2070)

Italy implemented two-dose universal varicella vaccination (UVV) regionally from 2003 to 2013 and nationally from 2017 onwards. Our objective was to analyze regional disparities in varicella outcomes resulting from disparities in vaccine coverage rates (VCRs) projected over a 50-year time-horizon (2020-2070). A previously published dynamic transmission model was updated to quantify the potential public health impact of the UVV program in Italy at the national and regional levels. Four 2-dose vaccine strategies utilizing monovalent (V) and quadrivalent (MMRV) vaccines were evaluated for each region: (A) MMRV-MSD/MMRV-MSD, (B) MMRV-GSK/MMRV-GSK, (C) V-MSD/MMRV-MSD, and (D) V-GSK/MMRV-GSK. Costs were reported in 2022 Euros. Costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were discounted 3% annually. Under strategy A, the three regions with the lowest first-dose VCR reported increased varicella cases (+ 34.3%), hospitalizations (+ 20.0%), QALYs lost (+ 5.9%), payer costs (+ 22.2%), and societal costs (+ 14.6%) over the 50-year time-horizon compared to the three regions with highest first-dose VCR. Regions with low first-dose VCR were more sensitive to changes in VCR than high first-dose VCR regions. Results with respect to second-dose VCR were qualitatively similar, although smaller in magnitude. Results were similar across all vaccine strategies.

An economic evaluation and incremental analysis of the cost effectiveness of three universal childhood varicella vaccination strategies for Ireland

BACKGROUND

The cost effectiveness of childhood varicella vaccination is uncertain, as evidenced by variation in national health policies. Within the European Economic Area (EEA), only 10 of 30 countries offer universally funded childhood varicella vaccination. This study estimates the cost effectiveness of universal childhood varicella vaccination for one EEA country (Ireland), highlighting the difference in cost effectiveness between alternative vaccination strategies.

METHODS

An age-structured dynamic transmission model, simulating varicella zoster virus transmission, was developed to analyse the impact of three vaccination strategies; one-dose at 12 months old, two-dose at 12 and 15 months old (short-interval), and two-dose at 12 months and five years old (long-interval). The analysis adopted an 80-year time horizon and considered payer and societal perspectives. Clinical effectiveness was based on cases of varicella and subsequently herpes zoster and post-herpetic neuralgia avoided, and outcomes were expressed in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Costs were presented in 2022 Irish Euro and cost effectiveness was interpreted with reference to a willingness-to-pay threshold of €20,000 per QALY gained.

RESULTS

From the payer perspective, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for a one-dose strategy, compared with no vaccination, was estimated at €8,712 per QALY gained. The ICER for the next least expensive strategy, two-dose long-interval, compared with one-dose, was estimated at €45,090 per QALY gained. From a societal perspective, all three strategies were cost-saving compared with no vaccination; the two-dose short-interval strategy dominated, yielding the largest cost savings and health benefits. Results were stable across a range of sensitivity and scenario analyses.

CONCLUSION

A one-dose strategy was highly cost effective from the payer perspective, driven by a reduction in hospitalisations. Two-dose strategies were cost saving from the societal perspective. These results should be considered alongside other factors such as acceptability of a new vaccine within the overall childhood immunisation schedule, programme objectives and budget impact.

Universal varicella vaccination in Denmark: Modeling public health impact, age-shift, and cost-effectiveness

We modeled the long-term clinical and economic impact of two-dose universal varicella vaccination (UVV) strategies in Denmark using a dynamic transmission model. The cost-effectiveness of UVV was evaluated along with the impact on varicella (including age-shift) and herpes zoster burden. Six two-dose UVV strategies were compared to no vaccination, at either short (12/15 months) or medium (15/48 months) intervals. Monovalent vaccines (V-MSD or V-GSK) for the 1st dose, and either monovalent or quadrivalent vaccines (MMRV-MSD or MMRV-GSK) for the 2nd dose were considered. Compared to no vaccination, all two-dose UVV strategies reduced varicella cases by 94%-96%, hospitalizations by 93%-94%, and deaths by 91%-92% over 50 years; herpes zoster cases were also reduced by 9%. There was a decline in the total number of annual varicella cases in all age groups including adolescents and adults. All UVV strategies were cost-effective compared to no vaccination, with ICER values ranging from €18,228-€20,263/QALY (payer perspective) and €3,746-€5,937/QALY (societal perspective). The frontier analysis showed that a two-dose strategy with V-MSD (15 months) and MMRV-MSD (48 months) dominated all other strategies and was the most cost-effective. In conclusion, all modeled two-dose UVV strategies were projected to substantially reduce the clinical and economic burden of varicella disease in Denmark compared to the current no vaccination strategy, with declines in both varicella and zoster incidence for all age groups over a 50-year time horizon.

Systematic review of economic evaluations of varicella vaccination programmes

OBJECTIVES

This study carried out a systematic literature review of economic evaluations of varicella vaccination programmes from the earliest publication to the present day, including programmes in the workplace and in special risk groups as well as universal childhood vaccination and catch up programmes.

METHODS

Articles published from 1985 until 2022 were sourced from PubMed/Medline, Embase, Web of Science, NHSEED and Econlit. Eligible economic evaluations, which included posters and conference abstracts, were identified by two reviewers who scrutinised each other's selections at both title and abstract and full report stages. The studies are described in terms of their methodological characteristics. Their results are aggregated by type of vaccination programme and the nature of the economic outcome.

RESULTS

A total of 2575 articles were identified of which 79 qualified as economic evaluations. A total of 55 studies focused on universal childhood vaccination, 10 on the workplace and 14 on high risk groups. Twenty-seven studies reported estimates of incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained, 16 reported benefit-cost ratios, 20 reported cost-effectiveness outcomes in terms of incremental cost per event or life saved and 16 reported cost-cost offset results. Most studies of universal childhood vaccination reported an increase in overall costs to health services, but often a reduction in cost from a societal perspective.

CONCLUSIONS

The evidence surrounding the cost-effectiveness of varicella vaccination programmes remains sparse with contrasting conclusions in some areas. Future research should particularly aim to encompass the impact of universal childhood vaccination programmes on herpes zoster among adults.

Assessing the use of antibiotics in pediatric patients hospitalized for varicella

BACKGROUND

Varicella is considered a mild and self-limiting disease, but, in some cases, it may complicate and require hospitalization. Antibiotics are not the first line therapy but in some cases are prescribed either for the management of varicella-related complications or as a preventive strategy. Aim of this study is to analyze the rate and the patterns of antibiotics used in pediatric patients hospitalized for varicella as well as the relative costs in order to increase insights in antibiotic use in varicella.

METHODS

Patients less than 18 years hospitalized for varicella at the Bambino Gesù Children's IRCCS Hospital in Rome, Italy, from the 1^st of November 2005 to the 1^st of November 2021 entered the study. Retrospective data were collected from the hospital's database electronic medical records. The rate, the patterns and the costs of antibiotics used were considered.

RESULTS

According to the inclusion criteria, we enrolled 810 patients, with a median age of 2.4 years. Out of them, 345 patients (42.6%) underwent antibiotic therapy, of which 307 for a complication (90.0%) and the other 10.0%, antibiotic for the fear of developing complications. The cost for varicella hospitalizations was EUR 2,928,749 (median cost EUR 2689). As for antibiotic therapy, it represented the 5.9% of the total cost (EUR 174,527), with a median cost of EUR 198.8. The cost in patients who underwent antibiotic therapy was significantly higher than in those who did not (p-value < 0.0001), as well as the hospitalization length (p-value < 0.0001). The most commonly prescribed antibiotics were Amoxicillin-clavulanate and Ceftriaxone, which represented the 36.0% and 25.0% of all antibiotic prescription, respectively. Antibiotics may negatively affect the economic cost of hospitalization and the prescription is not always in accordance to guidelines, with potential important repercussions on the development of antimicrobial resistance. Actually, resistance to antibiotics is considered a major risk to the future health of the world population as it may lead to longer hospital stay, increased risk of mortality, health care costs and treatment failures.

CONCLUSION

Strategies to reduce economical cost, hospitalization length and antimicrobial resistance include ensuring appropriate prescription and administration of empiric antibiotics as well as reducing the circulation of preventable infectious diseases through immunization.

The health and economic impact of switching vaccines in universal varicella vaccination programs using a dynamic transmission model: An Israel case study

Currently available health economic models for varicella infection are designed to inform the cost-effectiveness of universal varicella vaccination (UVV) compared with no vaccination. However, in countries with an existing UVV program, these models cannot be used to evaluate whether to continue with the current varicella vaccine or to switch to an alternative vaccine. We developed a dynamic transmission model that incorporates the historical vaccination program to project the health and economic impact of changing vaccination strategies. We applied the model to Israel, which initiated UVV in 2008 with a quadrivalent vaccine, MMRV-GSK, and switched to MMRV-MSD in 2016. The model was calibrated to pre-vaccination incidence data before projecting the impact of the historical and future alternative vaccination strategies on the clinical burden of varicella. Total costs and QALYs lost due to varicella infections were projected to compare continuing with MMRV-MSD versus switching to MMRV-GSK in 2022. Over a 50-year time horizon, continuing with MMRV-MSD reduced varicella incidence further by 64%, reaching 35 cases per 100,000 population by 2072, versus a 136% increase in incidence with MMRV-GSK. Continuing with MMRV-MSD reduced cumulative hospitalization and outpatient cases by 48% and 58% (vs. increase of 137% and 91% with MMRV-GSK), respectively. Continuing with MMRV-MSD resulted in 139 fewer QALYs lost with total cost savings of 3% compared with switching to MMRV-GSK, from the societal perspective. In Israel, maintaining the UVV strategy with MMRV-MSD versus switching to MMRV-GSK is projected to further reduce the burden of varicella and cost less from the societal perspective.

National and provincial burden of varicella disease and cost-effectiveness of childhood varicella vaccination in China from 2019 to 2049: a modelling analysis

Background

In China, varicella is the third most frequently reported vaccine-preventable infectious disease after tuberculosis and influenza, and imposes a heavy burden on families and society. To inform future immunization policy, we investigated disease burden of varicella in China and explored cost-effectiveness of different varicella vaccination strategies at national and provincial levels.

Methods

A dynamic transmission model was developed to assess disease burden of varicella and the impact of varicella vaccination in China. A cost-effectiveness analysis of three alternative vaccination strategies in China's National Immunization Program (NIP) compared with no vaccination was conducted. Scenario analyses and sensitivity analyses were performed to check the robustness of the results.

Findings

It was estimated that 3.35 million new varicella cases occurred in 2019, more than three times of 982 thousand cases officially reported from National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System (NNIDSS). The under-reported rate was approximately 71%. The economic analysis revealed that from the societal perspective, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for one dose of varicella vaccination in NIP was US$ 2357 per QALY at the national level and it was cost-effective in 22 of 31 provinces. The ICER for one dose varicella vaccination plus a mass catch-up for unvaccinated children aged 2-11 years old would be US$ -5260 per QALY, cost-saving at the national level. The one dose plus mass catch-up NIP strategy was also cost-saving in 24 of the 31 provinces.

Interpretation

Varicella incident cases were substantially under-reported in China. Varicella vaccination in the NIP could significantly contribute to reducing the burden of varicella disease. From the societal perspective, including varicella vaccination into China's NIP was highly cost-effective at the national level and in most provinces.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The Long-Term Clinical and Economic Impact of Universal Varicella Vaccination in Slovenia

Background: Despite the substantial burden of varicella infection, Slovenia does not currently have a universal varicella vaccination (UVV) program. We modeled the long-term clinical and economic impact of implementing 2-dose UVV strategies compared with no vaccination in Slovenia. Methods: A previously published dynamic transmission model was adapted to the demographics, varicella seroprevalence, herpes zoster incidence, and contact patterns in Slovenia. Six 2-dose UVV strategies, vs no vaccination, were considered over a 50-year period, including monovalent vaccination (Varivax^® [V-MSD] or Varilrix^® [V-GSK]) at ages 12 and 24 months, or monovalent vaccination at 15 months followed by monovalent or quadrivalent vaccination (ProQuad^® [MMRV-MSD] or Priorix- Tetra^® [MMRV-GSK]) at 5.5 years. Costs, quality-adjusted life-years, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios vs no vaccination were calculated to assess the economic impact of each strategy from payer and societal perspectives. Results: The incidence of varicella infection was estimated as 1228 per 100 000 population in the absence of UVV. Over 50 years, depending on vaccination strategy, UVV reduced varicella cases by 77% to 85% and was associated with substantial reductions in varicella deaths (39%-44%), outpatient cases (74%-82%), and hospitalizations (74%-82%). The greatest reductions were predicted with V-MSD (15 months/5.5 years) and V MSD/MMRV-MSD (15 months/5.5 years). Discussion: All 2-dose UVV strategies were cost-effective compared with no vaccination from payer and societal perspectives, with V-MSD (15 months/5.5 years) being the most favorable from both perspectives. Conclusion: Policymakers should consider implementing UVV to reduce the burden of varicella disease in Slovenia.

Modeling the Impact of Exogenous Boosting and Universal Varicella Vaccination on the Clinical and Economic Burden of Varicella and Herpes Zoster in a Dynamic Population for England and Wales

Universal varicella vaccination (UVV) in England and Wales has been hindered by its potential impact on exogenous boosting and increase in herpes zoster (HZ) incidence. We projected the impact of ten UVV strategies in England and Wales on the incidence of varicella and HZ and evaluated their cost-effectiveness over 50 years. The Maternal-Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Vaccinated transmission model was extended in a dynamically changing, age-structured population. Our model estimated that one- or two-dose UVV strategies significantly reduced varicella incidence (70–92%), hospitalizations (70–90%), and mortality (16–41%) over 50 years. A small rise in HZ cases was projected with UVV, peaking 22 years after introduction at 5.3–7.1% above pre-UVV rates. Subsequently, HZ incidence steadily decreased, falling 12.2–14.1% below pre-UVV rates after 50 years. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of 20,000 GBP/QALY, each UVV strategy was cost-effective versus no UVV. Frontier analysis showed that one-dose UVV with MMRV-MSD administered at 18 months is the only cost-effective strategy compared to other strategies. HZ incidence varied under alternative exogenous boosting assumptions, but most UVV strategies remained cost-effective. HZ vaccination decreased HZ incidence with minimal impact on the cost-effectiveness. Introducing a UVV program would significantly reduce the clinical burden of varicella and be cost-effective versus no UVV after accounting for the impact on HZ incidence.

Comparison of performance of varicella vaccines via infectious disease modeling

BACKGROUND

Population-level infectious disease models for varicella require vaccine parameters, namely 'take' and 'duration of protection' (defined here as vaccine performance), to quantify the impact of vaccination. Current published models for varicella use vaccine parameters derived from various methodologies which does not allow for the direct comparison of different vaccines.

METHODS

We estimated take and duration of protection using deterministic compartmental models to simulate clinical trials of one- or two-dose varicella vaccination using Varivax® (V-MSD) and Varilrix® (V-GSK). We fit different models to clinical trial data on breakthrough infections and evaluated their respective goodness-of-fit using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC).

RESULTS

Based upon the clinical trial data, we estimated that 90.3% (95% CI: 87.8-92.9%) of the cohort gained permanent protection from breakthrough varicella after the first dose of V-MSD compared to 61.7% (95% CI: 58.2-65.3%) with the first dose of V-GSK. We further estimated that a total of 97.0% (95% CI: 95.2-98.8%) and 93.8% (95% CI: 92.2-95.4%) of the cohort were permanently protected after two-doses of V-MSD and V-GSK, respectively. According to the AIC, our new model (V-MSD AIC = 92.7; V-GSK AIC = 170.3) provided a better fit than an existing model (V-MSD AIC = 108.9; V-GSK AIC = 216.1).

CONCLUSIONS

The model developed fits the long-term clinical trial data on breakthrough infections for both V-MSD and V-GSK, thus, allowing for the direct comparison of vaccine performance. We estimated that a single dose of V-MSD was more likely to provide permanent protection than a single dose of V-GSK, while the protection offered by two doses was similar for both vaccines.

Impact of universal varicella vaccination on the use and cost of antibiotics and antivirals for varicella management in the United States

Background

Our objective was to estimate the impact of universal varicella vaccination (UVV) on the use and costs of antibiotics and antivirals for the management of varicella among children in the United States (US).

Methods

A decision tree model of varicella vaccination, infections and treatment decisions was developed. Results were extrapolated to the 2017 population of 73.5 million US children. Model parameters were populated from published sources. Treatment decisions were derived from a survey of health care professionals’ recommendations. The base case modelled current vaccination coverage rates in the US with additional scenarios analyses conducted for 0%, 20%, and 80% coverage and did not account for herd immunity benefits.

Results

Our model estimated that 551,434 varicella cases occurred annually among children ≤ 18 years in 2017. Antivirals or antibiotics were prescribed in 23.9% of cases, with unvaccinated children receiving the majority for base case. The annual cost for varicella antiviral and antibiotic treatment was approximately $14 million ($26 per case), with cases with no complications accounting for $12 million. Compared with the no vaccination scenario, the current vaccination rates resulted in savings of $181 million (94.7%) for antivirals and $78 million (95.0%) for antibiotics annually. Scenario analyses showed that higher vaccination coverage (from 0% to 80%) resulted in reduced annual expenditures for antivirals (from $191 million to $41 million), and antibiotics ($82 million to $17 million).

Conclusions

UVV was associated with significant reductions in the use of antibiotics and antivirals and their associated costs in the US. Higher vaccination coverage was associated with lower use and costs of antibiotics and antivirals for varicella management.

Herpes zoster related hospitalization after inactivated (CoronaVac) and mRNA (BNT162b2) SARS-CoV-2 vaccination: A self-controlled case series and nested case-control study

Background

Stimulation of immunity by vaccination may elicit adverse events. There is currently inconclusive evidence on the relationship between herpes zoster related hospitalization and COVID-19 vaccination. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of inactivated virus (CoronaVac, Sinovac) and mRNA (BNT162b2, BioNTech/Fosun Pharma) COVID-19 vaccine on the risk of herpes zoster related hospitalization.

Methods

Self-controlled case series (SCCS) analysis was conducted using the data from the electronic health records in Hospital Authority and COVID-19 vaccination records in the Department of Health in Hong Kong. We conducted the SCCS analysis including patients with a first primary diagnosis of herpes zoster in the hospital inpatient setting between February 23 and July 31, 2021. A confirmatory analysis by nested case-control method was also conducted. Each herpes zoster case was randomly matched with ten controls according to sex, age, Charlson comorbidity index, and date of hospital admission. Conditional Poisson regression and logistic regression models were used to assess the potential excess rates of herpes zoster after vaccination.

Findings

From February 23 to July 31, 2021, a total of 16 and 27 patients were identified with a first primary hospital diagnosis of herpes zoster within 28 days after CoronaVac and BNT162b2 vaccinations. The incidence of herpes zoster was 7.9 (95% Confidence interval [CI]: 5.2-11.5) for CoronaVac and 7.1 (95% CI: 4.1-11.5) for BNT162b2 per 1,000,000 doses administered. In SCCS analysis, CoronaVac vaccination was associated with significantly higher risk of herpes zoster within 14 days after first dose (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR]=2.67, 95% CI: 1.08-6.59) but not in other periods afterwards compared to the baseline period. Regarding BNT162b2 vaccination, a significantly increased risk of herpes zoster was observed after first dose up to 14 days after second dose (0-13 days after first dose: aIRR=5.23, 95% CI: 1.61-17.03; 14-27 days after first dose: aIRR=5.82, 95% CI: 1.62-20.91; 0-13 days after second dose: aIRR=5.14, 95% CI: 1.29-20.47). Using these relative rates, we estimated that there has been an excess of approximately 5 and 7 cases of hospitalization as a result of herpes zoster after every 1,000,000 doses of CoronaVac and BNT162b2 vaccination, respectively. The findings in the nested case control analysis showed similar results.

Interpretation

We identified an increased risk of herpes zoster related hospitalization after CoronaVac and BNT162b2 vaccinations. However, the absolute risks of such adverse event after CoronaVac and BNT162b2 vaccinations were very low. In locations where COVID-19 is prevalent, the protective effects on COVID-19 from vaccinations will greatly outweigh the potential side effects of vaccination.

Funding

The project was funded by Research Grant from the Food and Health Bureau, The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (Ref. No.COVID19F01). FTTL (Francisco Tsz Tsun Lai) and ICKW (Ian Chi Kei Wong)'s posts were partly funded by D²4H; hence this work was partly supported by AIR@InnoHK administered by Innovation and Technology Commission.

Economic burden of varicella in Europe in the absence of universal varicella vaccination

Background

Though the disease burden of varicella in Europe has been reported previously, the economic burden is still unknown. This study estimated the economic burden of varicella in Europe in the absence of Universal Varicella Vaccination (UVV) in 2018 Euros from both payer (direct costs) and societal (direct and indirect costs) perspectives.

Methods

We estimated the country specific and overall annual costs of varicella in absence of UVV in 31 European countries (27 EU countries, plus Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and the United Kingdom). To obtain country specific unit costs and associated healthcare utilization, we conducted a systematic literature review, searching in PubMed, EMBASE, NEED, DARE, REPEC, Open Grey, and public heath websites (1/1/1999–10/15/2019). The number of annual varicella cases, deaths, outpatient visits and hospitalizations were calculated (without UVV) based on age-specific incidence rates (Riera-Montes et al. 2017) and 2018 population data by country. Unit cost per varicella case and disease burden data were combined using stochastic modeling to estimate 2018 costs stratified by country, age and healthcare resource.

Results

Overall annual total costs associated with varicella were estimated to be €662,592,061 (Range: €309,552,363 to €1,015,631,760) in Europe in absence of UVV. Direct and indirect costs were estimated at €229,076,206 (Range €144,809,557 to €313,342,856) and €433,515,855 (Range €164,742,806 to €702,288,904), respectively. Total cost per case was €121.45 (direct: €41.99; indirect: €79.46). Almost half of the costs were attributed to cases in children under 5 years, owing mainly to caregiver work loss. The distribution of costs by healthcare resource was similar across countries. France and Germany accounted for 49.28% of total annual costs, most likely due to a combination of high numbers of cases and unit costs in these countries.

Conclusions

The economic burden of varicella across Europe in the absence of UVV is substantial (over 600 M€), primarily driven by caregiver burden including work productivity losses.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-12343-x.

Pediatric Hospitalization for Varicella in an Italian Pediatric Hospital: How Much Does It Cost?

BACKGROUND

Varicella is a common pediatric infection. Even if it generally has a benign course, it may complicate and require hospitalization. The aim of our study was to estimate the acute hospitalization cost (AHC) for varicella in the acute phase in a pediatric population.

METHODS

We calculated the AHC of pediatric patients admitted for varicella at Bambino Gesù Children Hospital, Rome, Italy, from 1 November 2005 to 1 November 2020.

RESULTS

In the study period, 825 pediatric patients affected by varicella were hospitalized. The mean hospitalization cost was EUR 4015.35 (range from EUR 558.44 to EUR 42,608.00). Among patients, 55% were unvaccinable due to either their age or their immunosuppression status. They would benefit from herd immunity, reducing the overall AHC by EUR 182,196,506. Since the introduction of the compulsory vaccination against varicella in Italy, we observed a significant reduction in AHC cost of 60.6% in 2019 and of 93.5% in 2020. Finally, from the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, we documented a decline of 81.2% and 76.9% in varicella hospitalization, compared to 2018 and 2019, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Varicella AHC is an important economic and health assessment point and can be useful for improving preventive strategies.

Vaccine serocoverage under the expanded program on immunization among hill tribe children in Thailand: A cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Expanded programs on immunization (EPIs) are country-specific vaccine programs designed and implemented to prevent childhood diseases globally, including in Thailand. Hill tribe children in Thailand live in remote areas with underdeveloped education systems and low economic status. This study aimed to assess serocoverage under the EPI and access to vaccination clinics.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was performed to assess serocoverage after childhood vaccination among hill tribe children who lived in 34 selected villages in Chiang Rai Province, Thailand. A validated questionnaire was administered, and 3-mL blood specimens were collected. Antibodies against hepatitis B surface antigen (anti-HBs), hepatitis B core antigen (anti-HBc), measles, Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), and tetanus were detected. Chi-square tests were performed to detect the different proportion of patients with antibodies with different characteristics.

RESULTS

Half of the hill tribe children aged 1-18 years did not have medical evidence (logbook) of immunization. More than 98.0% of the children who had medical evidence received the recommended immunizations. Only half of the children had anti-HBs (51.1%), and 22.3% had antibodies against JEV. The majority were found to be positive for antibodies against measles (83.3%) and tetanus (91.4%). Sex (p-value = 0.028), tribe (p-value < 0.001), age (p-value < 0.001), and parents' monthly income (p-value = 0.008) were associated with a lack of medical evidence.

CONCLUSIONS

Existing immunization programs for hill tribe children in Thailand should be urgently evaluated and monitored for effectiveness.

Varicella Admissions in Children and Adolescents in Portugal: 2000-2015

OBJECTIVES

Varicella is a common, usually benign, and autolimited disease in children but can lead to severe complications and hospitalization. With this study, we aim to analyze all varicella hospitalizations to provide epidemiological information to help outline preventive policies.

METHODS

We assessed all varicella hospitalizations in children aged 0 to 17 years, from 2000 to 2015, in mainland, public Portuguese hospitals using a Portuguese administrative database. Seasonality, geographic distribution, severity, complications, risk factors, use of diagnostic and treatment procedures and hospitalization costs were analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 5120 hospitalizations were registered, with an annual rate of 17.3 hospitalizations per 100 000 inhabitants. A higher number of hospitalizations occurred during the summer period and in Southern regions. The median length of stay was of 4 days (interquartile range: 3.0-7.0). We found a high rate of severe complications, mostly dermatologic (19.6%), neurologic (6.0%), and respiratory (5.1%). Of the total number of patients, 0.8% were immunocompromised and 0.1% were pregnant. Total direct hospitalization costs during the 16-year period were estimated to be 7 110 719€ (8 603 970 USD), with a mean annual cost of 444 419.92€ (537 748.10 USD).

CONCULSIONS

This is the first national study in which useful epidemiological data to evaluate the burden and impact of varicella in Portugal is provided.

Clinical and economic impact of universal varicella vaccination in Norway: A modeling study

BACKGROUND

Norway has not implemented universal varicella vaccination, despite the considerable clinical and economic burden of varicella disease.

METHODS

An existing dynamic transmission model of varicella infection was calibrated to age-specific seroprevalence rates in Norway. Six two-dose vaccination strategies were considered, consisting of combinations of two formulations each of a monovalent varicella vaccine (Varivax® or Varilrix®) and a quadrivalent vaccine against measles-mumps-rubella-varicella (ProQuad® or PriorixTetra®), with the first dose given with a monovalent vaccine at age 15 months, and the second dose with either a monovalent or quadrivalent vaccine at either 18 months, 7 or 11 years. Costs were considered from the perspectives of both the health care system and society. Quality-adjusted life-years saved and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios relative to no vaccination were calculated. A one-way sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the impact of vaccine efficacy, price, the costs of a lost workday and of inpatient and outpatient care, vaccination coverage, and discount rate.

RESULTS

In the absence of varicella vaccination, the annual incidence of natural varicella is estimated to be 1,359 per 100,000 population, and the cumulative numbers of varicella outpatient cases, hospitalizations, and deaths over 50 years are projected to be 1.81 million, 10,161, and 61, respectively. Universal varicella vaccination is projected to reduce the natural varicella incidence rate to 48-59 per 100,000 population, depending on the vaccination strategy, and to reduce varicella outpatient cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by 75-85%, 67-79%, and 75-79%, respectively. All strategies were cost-saving, with the most cost-saving as two doses of Varivax® at 15 months and 7 years (payer perspective) and two doses of Varivax® at 15 months and 18 months (societal perspective).

CONCLUSIONS

All modeled two-dose varicella vaccination strategies are projected to lead to substantial reductions in varicella disease and to be cost saving compared to no vaccination in Norway.