Factors Associated with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Diseases in Nepal: Evidence from a Nationally Representative Population-Based Study

Comparative impact assessment of COVID-19 policy interventions in five South Asian countries using reported and estimated unreported death counts during 2020-2021

There has been raging discussion and debate around the quality of COVID death data in South Asia. According to WHO, of the 5.5 million reported COVID-19 deaths from 2020-2021, 0.57 million (10%) were contributed by five low and middle income countries (LMIC) countries in the Global South: India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal. However, a number of excess death estimates show that the actual death toll from COVID-19 is significantly higher than the reported number of deaths. For example, the IHME and WHO both project around 14.9 million total deaths, of which 4.5-5.5 million were attributed to these five countries in 2020-2021. We focus our gaze on the COVID-19 performance of these five countries where 23.5% of the world population lives in 2020 and 2021, via a counterfactual lens and ask, to what extent the mortality of one LMIC would have been affected if it adopted the pandemic policies of another, similar country? We use a Bayesian semi-mechanistic model developed by Mishra et al. (2021) to compare both the reported and estimated total death tolls by permuting the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) across these countries over a similar time period. Our analysis shows that, in the first half of 2021, mortality in India in terms of reported deaths could have been reduced to 96 and 102 deaths per million compared to actual 170 reported deaths per million had it adopted the policies of Nepal and Pakistan respectively. In terms of total deaths, India could have averted 481 and 466 deaths per million had it adopted the policies of Bangladesh and Pakistan. On the other hand, India had a lower number of reported COVID-19 deaths per million (48 deaths per million) and a lower estimated total deaths per million (80 deaths per million) in the second half of 2021, and LMICs other than Pakistan would have lower reported mortality had they followed India's strategy. The gap between the reported and estimated total deaths highlights the varying level and extent of under-reporting of deaths across the subcontinent, and that model estimates are contingent on accuracy of the death data. Our analysis shows the importance of timely public health intervention and vaccines for lowering mortality and the need for better coverage infrastructure for the death registration system in LMICs.

Burden and risk factors of chronic respiratory diseases in Nepal, 1990-2019: An analysis of the global burden of diseases study

Background and Aims

Chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) substantially contribute to morbidity and mortality globally and in Nepal. However, there is a paucity of evidence on the trend and the burden of CRDs in Nepal. This study reports the trend of the burden and contribution of major risk factors to CRDs in Nepal from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

This study is an observational study using publicly available data from Global Burden of Disease 2019 estimations for Nepal. The age-standardized and age-specific prevalence, incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and risk factors for CRDs in Nepal were extracted to measure the burden and its trend. The data are presented as percentages or as rates per 100,000 population.

Results

The age-standardized incidence rate of CRDs in Nepal in 2019 was 913.6 per 100,000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 828.7-1000.1), which was an increase of 7.7% from 848.6 per 100,000 (95% UI: 780.2-918.2) in 1990. However, the age-standardized prevalence rate [4453/100,000 (4234.2-4671.8) in 1990; 4457.1/100,000 (4255.2-4666.8) in 2019] was almost stagnant. Most CRDs attributed to deaths and DALYs were due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Conclusions

Air pollution and smoking are the main risk factors for DALYs due to CRDs in Nepal. This surging burden of the incidence rate of CRDs in Nepal calls for more effective actions to curb the risk factors and diseases.