Analysis of the Value of the Blood Urea Nitrogen to Albumin Ratio as a Predictor of Mortality in Patients with Sepsis

The association between blood urea nitrogen to albumin ratio and the 28 day mortality in tuberculosis patients complicated by sepsis

The relationship between blood urea nitrogen to albumin ratio (BAR) and the prognosis of patients with tuberculosis (TB) complicated by sepsis remains unclear. This study aimed to explore the association between BAR and overall patient prognosis. This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with TB complicated by sepsis who were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of the Public Health Clinical Center of Chengdu between January 2019 and February 2023. The relationship between BAR values and prognosis in these patients was investigated using multivariate Cox regression, stratified analysis with interaction, restricted cubic spline (RCS), and threshold effect analysis. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of the results. Our study included 537 TB patients complicated by sepsis admitted in the ICU, with a median age of 63.0 (48.0, 72.0) years; 76.7% of whom were men. The multivariate-restricted cubic spline analysis showed a non-linear association between BAR and patient prognosis. In the threshold analysis, we found that TB patients complicated by sepsis and a BAR < 7.916 mg/g had an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for prognosis of 1.163 (95% CI 1.038-1.303; P = 0.009). However, when the BAR was ≥ 7.916 mg/g, there was no significant increase in the risk of death. The results of the sensitivity analysis were stable.

Development and validation of an interpretable machine learning for mortality prediction in patients with sepsis

Introduction

Sepsis is a leading cause of death. However, there is a lack of useful model to predict outcome in sepsis. Herein, the aim of this study was to develop an explainable machine learning (ML) model for predicting 28-day mortality in patients with sepsis based on Sepsis 3.0 criteria.

Methods

We obtained the data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-III database (version 1.4). The overall data was randomly assigned to the training and testing sets at a ratio of 3:1. Following the application of LASSO regression analysis to identify the modeling variables, we proceeded to develop models using Extreme Gradient Boost (XGBoost), Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Random Forest (RF) techniques with 5-fold cross-validation. The optimal model was selected based on its area under the curve (AUC). Finally, the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) method was used to interpret the optimal model.

Results

A total of 5,834 septic adults were enrolled, the median age was 66 years (IQR, 54-78 years) and 2,342 (40.1%) were women. After feature selection, 14 variables were included for developing model in the training set. The XGBoost model (AUC: 0.806) showed superior performance with AUC, compared with RF (AUC: 0.794), LR (AUC: 0.782) and SVM model (AUC: 0.687). SHAP summary analysis for XGBoost model showed that urine output on day 1, age, blood urea nitrogen and body mass index were the top four contributors. SHAP dependence analysis demonstrated insightful nonlinear interactive associations between factors and outcome. SHAP force analysis provided three samples for model prediction.

Conclusion

In conclusion, our study successfully demonstrated the efficacy of ML models in predicting 28-day mortality in sepsis patients, while highlighting the potential of the SHAP method to enhance model transparency and aid in clinical decision-making.

Clinical Utility of the Tokyo Guidelines 2018 for Acute Cholangitis in the Emergency Department and Comparison with Novel Markers (Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte and Blood Nitrogen Urea-to-Albumin Ratios)

Introduction: The Tokyo Guidelines 2018 (TG2018) is a scoring system used to recommend the clinical management of AC. However, such a scoring system must incorporate a variety of clinical outcomes of acute cholangitis (AC). In an emergency department (ED)-based setting, where efficiency and practicality are highly desired, clinicians may find the application of various parameters challenging. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and blood urea nitrogen-to-albumin ratio (BAR) are relatively common biomarkers used to assess disease severity. This study evaluated the potential value of TG2018 scores measured in an ED to predict a variety of clinical outcomes. Furthermore, the study also compared TG2018 scores with NLR and BAR scores to demonstrate their usefulness. Methods: This retrospective observational study was performed in an ED. In total, 502 patients with AC visited the ED between January 2016 and December 2021. The primary endpoint was to evaluate whether the TG2018 scoring system measured in the ED was a predictor of intensive care, long-term hospital stays (≥14 days), percutaneous transhepatic biliary drainage (PTBD) during admission care, and endotracheal intubation (ETI). Results: The analysis included 81 patients requiring intensive care, 111 requiring long-term hospital stays (≥14 days), 49 requiring PTBD during hospitalization, and 14 requiring ETI during hospitalization. For the TG2018 score, the adjusted OR (aOR) using (1) as a reference was 23.169 (95% CI: 9.788-54.844) for (3) compared to (1). The AUC of the TG2018 for the need for intensive care was 0.850 (95% CI: 0.815-0.881) with a cutoff of >2. The AUC for long-term hospital stays did not exceed 0.7 for any of the markers. the AUC for PTBD also did not exceed 0.7 for any of the markers. The AUC for ETI was the highest for BAR at 0.870 (95% CI: 0.837-0.899) with a cutoff value of >5.2. Conclusions: The TG2018 score measured in the ED helps predict various clinical outcomes of AC. Other novel markers such as BAR and NLR are also associated, but their explanatory power is weak.

Urea to Albumin Ratio Is an Excellent Predictor of Death in Patients With Complicated Intra-Abdominal Infections

Background: The urea to albumin ratio (UAR) has shown a prognostic value in various clinical settings, however, no study has yet investigated its ability to predict outcome in complicated intra-abdominal infections (cIAIs). Therefore, our aim was to evaluate the association between UAR and mortality in such patients. Patients and Methods: A single-center prospective study including 62 patients with cIAIs was performed at a University Hospital Stara Zagora for the period November 2018 to August 2021. Various routine laboratory and clinical parameters were recorded before surgery and on post-operative day 3. We used serum levels of urea and albumin to calculate the UAR. Results: The observed in-hospital mortality was 14.5%. Non-survivors had higher pre- and post-operative median of UAR than survivors (88.39 vs. 30.99, p < 0.0001 and 106.18 vs. 26.58, p < 0.0001, respectively). Lethal outcome was predicted successfully both by UAR before surgery (area under receiver operating characteristics [AUROC] curves = 0.889; p < 0.0001) at a threshold of 61.42 and on third post-operative day (AUROC = 0.943; p < 0.0001) at a threshold = 55.89. Conclusions: Peri-operative UAR showed an excellent ability for prognostication of fatal outcome in patients with cIAIs.

Prediction of Poor Outcome Using the Urea to Albumin Ratio in Thoracic Empyema

Purpose

The prognostic performance of urea-to-albumin ratio (UAR) has been assessed in various pulmonary and nonpulmonary conditions, but never in thoracic empyema. Therefore, our aim was to determine whether this marker has the ability to predict outcome in such patients.

Methods

A single-center retrospective study was conducted in a Clinic of Thoracic Surgery at a University Hospital between January 2021 and October 2023. A total of 84 patients who underwent emergency surgery due to thoracic empyema were involved. Serum levels of urea and albumin at admission were used to calculate UAR. We analyzed area under receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curves of UAR, systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and quick-sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA), and compared their prognostic performance.

Results

The identified in-hospital mortality was 10.7%. The UAR showed the best ability to prognosticate mortality compared to qSOFA (AUROC = 0.828 vs 0.747) and SIRS (AUROC = 0.828 vs 0.676). We established a sensitivity of 87.5% and specificity of 74.2% at optimal cut-off value UAR > 51.1 for prediction of adverse outcome.

Conclusion

In patients with thoracic empyema urea-to-albumin ratio showed significant prognostic performance and a potential for clinical application as a low cost and widely available predictor of death.

Blood urea nitrogen to albumin ratio is associated with cerebral small vessel diseases

Blood urea nitrogen (BUN) to albumin ratio (BAR) is a comprehensive parameter that reflects renal, inflammatory, nutritional, and endothelial functions. BAR has been shown to be associated with various cancers, pneumonia, sepsis, and pulmonary and cardiovascular diseases; however, few studies have been conducted on its association with cerebrovascular diseases. In this study, we evaluated the association between BAR and cerebral small vessel disease (cSVD) in health check-up participants. We assessed consecutive health check-up participants between January 2006 and December 2013. For the cSVD subtype, we quantitatively measured the volume of white matter hyperintensity (WMH) and qualitatively measured the presence of lacune and cerebral microbleeds (CMBs). The BAR was calculated by dividing BUN by albumin as follows: BAR = BUN (mg/dl)/albumin (g/dl). A total of 3012 participants were evaluated. In multivariable linear regression analysis, BAR showed a statistically significant association with WMH volume after adjusting for confounders [β = 0.076, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.027-0.125]. In multivariable logistic regression analyses, BAR was significantly associated with lacunes [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.00-1.44] and CMBs (aOR = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.06-1.55). BAR was associated with all types of cSVD in the health check-up participants.

The Ratio of Red Blood Cell Distribution Width to Albumin as a Predictor for Rehospitalization Risk and Rehospitalization All-Cause Mortality in Middle-Aged and Elderly Survivors with Sepsis: An Ambispective ICU Cohort Study

Objective

To explore the relationship between red blood cell distribution width to albumin (RDW/ALB) ratio (RAR) and the risk of rehospitalization and rehospitalization all-cause mortality in middle-aged and elderly survivors with sepsis based on an ambispective longitudinal cohort from the Intensive Care Unit (ICU).

Methods

Between 2017 and 2022, 455 adults who survived the first-episode severe sepsis without recurrence for at least 3 months were included in this study. All participants were followed up every 4 weeks for 12 months. According to the tertiles of RAR, participants were divided into three groups: low-level (≤0.36, n = 152), moderate-level (0.37-0.44, n = 152), and high-level (≥0.45, n = 151). The relationship between RAR and the risk of rehospitalization and rehospitalization all-cause mortality was evaluated.

Results

Out of 455 participants, 156 experienced rehospitalization (34.3%), of which 44 (28.2%) died. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis showed that the RAR cut-off values for rehospitalization and rehospitalization all-cause mortality were 0.4251 and 0.4743, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that the RAR was positively associated with rehospitalization (P = 0.011) and all-cause mortality (P = 0.006). Compared with the low-level, the high-level RAR presented a higher dose-dependent rehospitalization risk (P = 0.02) and rehospitalization all-cause mortality (P = 0.044). The stratified analysis displayed that compared to the low-level, with the RAR increasing by 1.0, the risk for rehospitalization increased 3.602-fold in aged <65 patients (P = 0.002) and 1.721-fold in female patients (P = 0.014). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis implied a significant positive association between the RAR and the cumulative incidence of rehospitalization and rehospitalization all-cause mortality (log-rank, all P < 0.001).

Conclusion

RAR has a reliable predictive value for the risk of rehospitalization and rehospitalization all-cause mortality in patients with sepsis. Consequently, monitoring RAR for at least 1 year after surviving sepsis in female patients aged <65 in clinical practice is critical.

Association between alkaline phosphatase to albumin ratio and mortality among patients with sepsis

The alkaline phosphatase-to-albumin ratio (APAR) is correlated to worse prognosis in coronary artery disease, cancer, and acute renal failure. However, the relationship between APAR and sepsis prognosis has received little research. The content of this research was to investigate the prognostic relationship between APAR and sepsis. And validate the stability of the correlation in 90-days and 1-year mortality. Retrospective cohort research was conducted basing MIMIC-IV database (version 2.0). The hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (Cl) were computed using multivariate Cox regression analysis. In addition, plots of survival curves and subgroup analyzes were conducted. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were also used. 9741 participants were included in this investigation. The 90-days mortality was 32.8%, and the 1-year mortality was 42.0%. After controlling for confounders, the adjusted HRs (95% CI) for tertile 2 (2.2-3.8) and tertile 3 (> 3.8) were 1.37 (1.25-1.51) and 1.74 (1.58-1.91), respectively. The Kaplan-Meier curve analysis showed a higher probability of 90-days death in the higher APAR group. The area under the curve (AUC) of APAR was 0.674 and could reach 0.709 after combining the Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score (OASIS). This study demonstrates that APAR is significantly related to bad clinical outcomes in sepsis.

The association of blood urea nitrogen to serum albumin ratio with short-term outcomes in Chinese patients with congestive heart failure: A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Limited evidence exists on the prognostic outcomes of the blood urea nitrogen to serum albumin ratio (B/A ratio) in congestive heart failure (CHF), particularly in developing countries with scarce heart failure epidemiological data. We aimed to investigate the association between B/A ratio and short-term outcomes in Chinese patients with CHF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We included 1761 CHF patients with available B/A ratio data from a cohort of 2008 patients. Patients were categorized into three groups based on B/A ratio (low to high). The primary endpoint was death or readmission within 28 days, and the secondary endpoint was death or readmission within 90 days. We employed restricted cubic spline analysis, Cox proportional hazards regression, and Kaplan-Meier curves to evaluate the relationship between B/A ratio at admission and the endpoints. Even after adjusting for other variables, higher B/A ratios were associated with increased rates of 28 days and 90 days mortality or readmission (HR: 2.4, 95% CI: 1.81-3.18 and HR: 1.74, 95% CI: 1.48-2.05). Significant differences in the risks of both primary and secondary endpoints were observed among the three B/A ratio groups. The association between B/A ratio and CHF was stable in the different subgroups (all P for interaction＞0.05).

CONCLUSION

Higher B/A ratios are associated with an increased risk of short-term mortality or readmission in Chinese patients with CHF. The B/A ratio shows promise as a prognostic indicator for short-term outcomes in CHF patients.

Relationship between blood urea nitrogen to serum albumin ratio and short-term mortality among patients from the surgical intensive care unit: a population-based real-world study

BACKGROUND

Patients admitted to the surgical intensive care unit (SICU) often suffer from multi-organ dysfunction and have a high mortality rate. Therefore, finding a simple but effective clinical indicator to predict the prognosis of patients is essential to improve their survival. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between blood urea nitrogen to serum albumin ratio (B/A) and short-term mortality among patients from the SICU.

METHODS

All eligible adult patients admitted to the SICU from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) database were recruited for this study. Participants were divided into a death group (n = 638) and a survival group (n = 2,048) based on the 90-day prognosis, and then grouped by B/A quartiles. We used restricted cubic splines (RCS) to visually analyze the correlation of B/A with 30- and 90-day risk of death. Cumulative survival rates were estimated using Kaplan-Meier survival curves according to B/A quartiles and evaluated using the log-rank test. Cox proportional risk models were developed and sensitivity analyses were performed to explore whether B/A was independently associated with short-term outcomes in SICU patients. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were analyzed to ascertain the value of B/A for prognosticating 90-day outcome.

RESULTS

A total of 2686 participants were included in the final study, and their 30-day and 90-day all-cause mortality rates were 17.61% and 23.75%, respectively. The differences in 30-day and 90-day mortality rates were statistically significant among the four groups of patients (all p < 0.001). RCS curves showed that B/A was linearly associated with the risk of 30-day and 90-day all-cause mortality in SICU patients (χ2 = 0.960, p = 0.811; χ2 = 1.940, p = 0.584). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the 90-day cumulative survival rate gradually decreased as B/A increased, with patients in the highest quartile of B/A having the lowest survival rate (p < 0.001). Cox regression indicated that elevated B/A (> 9.69) was an independent risk factor for 30-day and 90-day all-cause mortality in SICU patients. The analysis of ROC curves demonstrated that B/A exhibited a significant predictive ability for 90-day mortality, with an optimal threshold of 6.587, a sensitivity of 56.9%, and a specificity of 64.8%.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated B/A (> 9.69) on admission was an independent risk factor for short-term mortality in SICU patients, and clinicians should pay more attention to this group of patients and intervene clinically at an early stage to reduce mortality.

An analysis of lactate/albumin, procalcitonin/albumin, and blood urea nitrogen/albumin ratios as a predictor of mortality in uroseptic patients

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to investigate the ratios of lactate/albumin, procalcitonin/albumin, and blood urea nitrogen/albumin to predict 14- and 28-day mortality in uroseptic patients. Urosepsis is a disease with high mortality, and early diagnosis and treatment are important.

METHODS

Patients with urosepsis who were admitted to the intensive care unit between January 2021 and September 2022, had a follow-up of at least 28 days, and met the inclusion criteria were evaluated retrospectively.

RESULTS

The mean age was 70.23 (15.66) years and 84 (53.85%) were males. The number of non-survivors were 75 (48%) in the 14-day mortality group and 97 (62.1%) in the 28-day mortality group. Based on the 14-day mortality data, the blood urea nitrogen/albumin ratio was higher in non-survivors vs. survivors (median, 15.88 vs. 9.62), and the lactate/albumin ratio was higher (median, 0.96 vs. 0.52, p<0.01, all). Based on the 28-day mortality data, the blood urea nitrogen/albumin ratio was higher in non-survivors vs. survivors (median, 14.78 vs. 8.46), and the lactate/albumin ratio was higher (median, 0.90 vs. 0.50, p<0.01, all).

CONCLUSION

It is very difficult to determine the prognosis of patients admitted to the emergency department with the diagnosis of urosepsis. The lactate/albumin ratio and the blood urea nitrogen/albumin ratio can be used as early prognostic markers for both 14-day and 28-day mortality until more reliable markers are identified.

BUN/albumin ratio predicts short-term mortality better than SYNTAX score in ST-elevation myocardial infarction patients

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the study is to compare the prognostic power of the BUN/albumin ratio (BAR) calculated on admission to the emergency department and the SYNergy between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention with TAXus (SYNTAX) score calculated after coronary angiography (CAG) in predicting 30-day mortality in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).

METHOD AND MATERIAL

The study was conducted prospectively between March 2021 and March 2022 in the emergency department of a tertiary hospital. Patients over the age of 18 who underwent CAG with a diagnosis of STEMI were included in the study. Demographic charecteristics, comorbidities, laboratory parameters of the patients at the time of admission and SYNTAX (SX) score were recorded in the data form.

RESULTS

A total of 1147 patients (77% male) diagnosed with STEMI were included in the study. When the receiver-operating characteristic analysis for SX score and laboratory parameters' power to predict mortality was examined, it was found that the AUC value of the BAR level (AUC: 0.736; 95% confidence interval: 0.670-0.802, P  < 0.001) was the highest. If the threshold value of the serum BAR level, which was determined to predict mortality, was taken as 4, the sensitivity was found to be 76.7% and the specificity was 56.9%. With multivariate logistic analysis, it was determined that the risk of mortality increased by 1.25 for each unit increase in the BAR value in STEMI patients ( P  < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

According to the study data, the BAR may guide the clinician in the early period as a practical and valuable predictor of 30-day mortality in patients diagnosed with STEMI.

The National Early Warning Score 2(NEWS2) to Predict Early Progression to Severe Community-Acquired Pneumonia

This study aimed to assess the predictive performance of the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) to identify the early progression to severe disease in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). A prospective-cohort study was conducted among patients with CAP admitted to a university hospital between October 2020 and December 2021. The endpoint of interest was the progression to severe CAP, defined as the requirement for a mechanical ventilator, a vasopressor, or death within 72 h after hospital admission. Among 260 patients, 53 (25.6%) had early progression to severe CAP. The median NEWS2 of the early progression group was higher than that of the non-progression group [8 (6-9) vs. 7 (5-8), p = 0.015, respectively]. The AUROC of NEWS2 to predict early progression to severe CAP was 0.61 (95% CI: 0.52-0.70), while IDSA/ATS minor criteria ≥ 3 had AUROC 0.56 (95% CI 0.48-0.65). The combination of NEWS2 ≥ 8, albumin level < 3 g/dL and BUN ≥ 30 mg/dL improved AUROC from 0.61 to 0.71 (p = 0.015). NEWS2 and IDSA/ATS minor criteria showed fair predictive-accuracy in predicting progression to severe CAP. The NEWS2 cut-off ≥ 8 in combination with low albumin and uremia improved predictive-accuracy, and could be easily used in general practice.

Albumin Level is Associated with Short-Term and Long-Term Outcomes in Sepsis Patients Admitted in the ICU: A Large Public Database Retrospective Research

Objective

This study aimed to explore the relationship between albumin level with short- and long-term outcomes in sepsis patients admitted in the intensive care unit (ICU) based on a large public database to provide clinical evidence for physicians to make individualized plans of albumin supplementation.

Methods

Sepsis patients admitted in the ICU in MIMIC-IV were included. Different models were performed to investigate the relationships between albumin and mortalities of 28-day, 60-day, 180-day and 1-year. Smooth fitting curves were performed.

Results

A total of 5357 sepsis patients were included. Mortalities of 28-day, 60-day, 180-day and 1-year were 29.29% (n = 1569), 33.92% (n = 1817), 36.70% (n = 1966) and 37.71% (n = 2020). In the fully adjusted model (adjusted for all potential confounders), with each 1g/dL increment in albumin level, the risk of mortality in 28-day, 60-day, 180-day and 1-year decreased by 39% (OR = 0.61, 95% CI: 0.54-0.69), 34% (OR = 0.66, 95% CI: 0.59-0.73), 33% (OR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.60-0.75), and 32% (OR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.61-0.76), respectively. The non-linear negative relationships between albumin and clinical outcomes were confirmed by smooth fitting curves. The turning point of albumin level was 2.6g/dL for short- and long-term clinical outcomes. When albumin level ≤2.6g/dL, with each 1g/dL increment in albumin level, the risk of mortality in 28-day, 60-day, 180-day and 1-year decreased by 59% (OR = 0.41, 95% CI: 0.32-0.52), 62% (OR = 0.38, 95% CI: 0.30-0.48), 65% (OR = 0.35, 95% CI: 0.28-0.45), and 62% (OR = 0.38, 95% CI: 0.29-0.48), respectively.

Conclusion

Albumin level was associated with short- and long-term outcomes in sepsis. Albumin supplementation might be beneficial for septic patients with serum albumin<2.6g/dL.

Association between blood urea nitrogen to serum albumin ratio and in-hospital mortality of patients with sepsis in intensive care: A retrospective analysis of the fourth-generation Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care database

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to investigate the relationship between the blood urea nitrogen to serum albumin ratio (BAR) and in-hospital mortality in patients with sepsis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This is a retrospective cohort study. All septic patient data for the study were obtained from the intensive care unit of Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using multivariable Cox regression analyses. Survival curves were plotted and subgroup analyses were stratified by relevant covariates.

RESULTS

Among 23,901 patients, 13,464 with sepsis were included. The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 18.9% (2550/13464). After adjustment for confounding factors, patients in the highest BAR quartile had an increased risk of sepsis death than those in the lowest BAR quartile (HR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.3-1.55), using BAR as a categorical variable. When BAR was presented as a continuous variable, the prevalence of in-hospital sepsis-related death increased by 8% (adjusted HR: 1.08, 95% CI: 1.07-1.1, P < 0.001) for each 5-unit increase in BAR, irrespective of confounders. Stratified analyses indicated age interactions (P < 0.001), and the correlation between BAR and the probability of dying due to sepsis was stable.

CONCLUSION

BAR was significantly associated with in-hospital mortality in intensive care patients with sepsis. A higher BAR in patients with sepsis is associated with a worse prognosis in the ICU in the USA. However, further research is required to confirm this finding.