Predictors of Early Neurological Deterioration and Functional Outcome in Acute Ischemic Stroke: The Importance of Large Artery Disease, Hyperglycemia and Inflammatory Blood Biomarkers

Study protocol: Early neurological deterioration in patients with minor stroke, frequency, predictors, and outcomes in Vietnam single-centre study

Early neurological deterioration (END) is progressive neurological deterioration with an increase in NIHSS score of 2 points or more in the first 72 hours from the onset of acute ischemic stroke. END increases the risk of poor clinical outcomes at day 90 of ischemic stroke. We will study the frequency, predictors, and outcomes of patients with END in a case-control study at a comprehensive stroke centre in Vietnam. of the design is a descriptive observational study, longitudinal follow-up of patients with minor stroke hospitalized at the Stroke Center of Bach Mai Hospital from December 1, 2023, to December 1, 2024. Minor stroke patients characterized by NIHSS score ≤ 5 hospitalized within 24 hours of symptom onset will be recruited. The estimated END rate is about 30%, relative accuracy ε = 0.11, 95% reliability, expected 5% of patients lost data or follow-up, and an estimated sample size of 779 patients. This study will help determine the END rate in patients with minor stroke and related factors, thereby building a prognostic model for END. Our study determined the END rate in patients with minor stroke in Vietnam and also proposed risk factors for minor stroke management and treatment.

Predictive value of serum MDA and 4-HNE levels on the occurrence of early neurological deterioration after intravenous thrombolysis with rt-PA IVT in patients with acute ischemic stroke

OBJECTIVE

This study investigated the predictive value of serum MDA and 4-HNE levels on early neurological deterioration (END) after recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (rt-PA) intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients.

METHODS

This study analyzed 287 AIS patients with standard-dose rt-PA IVT. Clinical baseline and pathological data were recorded before rt-PA IVT, and neurologic deficit was assessed by NIHSS. AIS patients were classified into Non-END and END groups. Serum MDA and 4-HNE levels were determined by ELISA and their correlations with NIHSS scores were evaluated. AIS patients were allocated into groups with high and low MDA or 4-HNE expression, and post-IVT END incidence was compared. Independent risk indexes for post-IVT END and the predictive value of serum MDA+4-HNE levels on post-IVT END were assessed.

RESULTS

Serum MDA and 4-HNE were higher in AIS patients with post-IVT END. NIHSS score showed a positive correlation with serum MDA and 4-HNE levels. MDA levels were positively correlated with 4-HNE levels in AIS patients. END after IVT was increased in AIS patients with high MDA/4-HNE expression. FBG, lymphocyte percentage, PLR, NIHSS score, serum MDA, and 4-HNE levels were independent risk factors for END after IVT. The diagnostic efficacy of MDA+4-HNE in assessing post-IVT END in AIS patients (sensitivity 92.00 %, specificity 82.70 %) was higher than MDA or 4-HNE alone.

CONCLUSION

Serum MDA and 4-HNE levels were higher in AIS patients with post-IVT END than in those with non-END, and MDA+4-HNE possessed a higher predictive value for post-IVT END in AIS patients.

Microalbuminuria as a Predictor of Early Neurological Deterioration and Poor Functional Outcomes in Acute Ischemic Stroke

Background Ischemic stroke is a major health crisis with significant consequences. Microalbuminuria, a sign of endothelial dysfunction, has been linked to adverse outcomes in ischemic stroke. Early neurological deterioration (END) is a critical factor influencing the patient's prognosis. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of microalbuminuria, its predictive value in assessing END, and its prognostic implications in acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Methodology This study conducted at Pradyumna Bal Memorial Hospital, Kalinga Institute of Medical Sciences Bhubaneswar (November 2020-April 2022) included 114 AIS patients over 18 years who presented within 24 hours of stroke onset. Demographics, vascular risk factors, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) scores (admission and day three), modified Rankin scores (day 10), urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratios, and carotid artery Doppler studies were collected. Results The mean age of the patients was 61.87 years, with males constituting 72.8% of the population. Hypertension (50.9%) and diabetes mellitus (28.9%) were the most common comorbid conditions. The mean NIHSS stroke severity at presentation was 11.30. END occurred in 38.6% of patients. Overall, 43.9% of cases showed carotid stenosis, and the mean carotid intimal media thickness was 1.08 mm. Notably, the presence of microalbuminuria significantly increased the chances of both END (39.45 times higher risk) and worse functional outcomes (odds ratio = 19.147, p = 0.001). Conclusions Microalbuminuria emerges as a robust independent predictor of END and a poor prognosis in AIS. These findings highlight the importance of early microalbuminuria identification and intervention to reduce END risk and potentially improve outcomes in AIS patients.

Trajectories of stroke severity and functional outcomes after endovascular treatment in ischemic stroke: A post hoc analysis of a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

The trajectory of early neurological changes in patients with acute ischemic stroke has been understudied. This study aimed to investigate the association between longitudinal trajectories of stroke severity and 90-day functional outcomes in patients with acute ischemic stroke receiving endovascular treatment.

METHODS

We enrolled patients from a prospective, multicenter, randomized controlled trial. The stroke severity was assessed with the National Institute of Health Stroke Scale at the pre-procedure, 24 hours, and seven days after the procedure. Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) was used to identify trajectories of stroke severity. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to explore the association between stroke severity markers and 90-day functional outcomes.

RESULTS

Of 218 enrolled patients, 127 (58.3%) had poor functional outcomes at 90 days. We identified three trajectories of stroke severity in the GBTM: stable symptom (38.1%), symptom deterioration (17.0%), and symptom improvement (44.9%). In multivariable analyses, trajectories of stroke severity were associated with an increased risk of poor functional outcomes (symptom improvement versus symptom deterioration: odds ratio, 0.007; 95% confidence interval, 0.001-0.040; P <0.001). Reclassification indexes revealed that trajectories of stroke severity would increase the predictive ability for poor functional outcomes at 90 days.

CONCLUSION

After endovascular treatment, patients would follow one of three distinct trajectories of stroke severity. Symptom deterioration trajectory was associated with an increased risk of poor functional outcomes at 90 days.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04973332.

Inflammatory marker profiles and in-hospital neurological deterioration in patients with acute minor ischemic stroke

AIM

The aim of the study was to analyze the association between inflammatory marker profiles and in-hospital neurological deterioration (ND) in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients.

METHODS

Data from patients with minor AIS from the Third China National Stroke Registry were analyzed. Inflammatory cytokine levels within 24 h of admission were measured. The primary outcome was in-hospital ND (an increase in National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score ≥4 from admission to discharge). Associations were evaluated using odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) derived from logistic regression models. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were used to evaluate incremental predictive values.

RESULTS

A total of 4031 patients (1246 women, 30.9%) with a median age of 62 years were included. In-hospital ND occurred in 121 patients (3%). Each standard-deviation increase in interleukin (IL)-6 (OR, 1.17 [95% CI, 1.06-1.31]) and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) (OR, 1.43 [95% CI, 1.24-1.66]) levels was associated with increased in-hospital ND risk. Incremental predictive values for adding IL-6 (IDI, 0.012; NRI, 0.329) but not hsCRP levels to the conventional risk factors were found.

CONCLUSION

In minor AIS, hsCRP and IL-6 levels were associated with in-hospital ND, including IL-6 levels in prognostic models improved risk classification.

Seasonal Variations in Stroke and a Comparison of the Predictors of Unfavorable Outcomes among Patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke and Cardioembolic Stroke

We investigated the seasonal variations in stroke in 4040 retrospectively enrolled patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) admitted between January 2011 and December 2022, particularly those with cardioembolic (CE) stroke, and compared predictors of unfavorable outcomes between AIS patients and CE stroke patients. The classification of stroke subtypes was based on the Trial of ORG 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment. Stroke occurrence was stratified by seasons and weekdays or holidays. Of all AIS cases, 18% were of CE stroke. Of all five ischemic stroke subtypes, CE stroke patients were the oldest; received the most thrombolysis and thrombectomy; had the highest initial National Institutes of Stroke Scale (NIHSS) and discharge modified Rankin Scale (mRS) scores; and had the highest rate of in-hospital complications, unfavorable outcomes (mRS > 2), and mortality. The highest CE stroke prevalence was noted in patients aged ≥ 85 years (30.9%); moreover, CE stroke prevalence increased from 14.9% in summer to 23.0% in winter. The main predictors of death in patients with CE stroke were age > 86 years, heart rate > 79 beats/min, initial NIHSS score > 16, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) > 6.4, glucose > 159 mg/dL, cancer history, in-hospital complications, and neurological deterioration (ND). The three most dominant factors influencing death, noted in not only patients with AIS but also those with CE stroke, are high initial NIHSS score, ND, and high NLR. We selected the most significant factors to establish nomograms for predicting fatal outcomes. Effective heart rhythm monitoring, particularly in older patients and during winter, may help develop stroke prevention strategies and facilitate early AF detection.

Predictive factors for early neurological deterioration after intravenous thrombolysis of single subcortical infarction in the territory of the middle cerebral artery

INTRODUCTION

Patients with a single subcortical infarction (SSI) in the territory of the middle cerebral artery (MCA) often experience early neurological deterioration (END) despite receiving intravenous thrombolytic therapy (IVT). In this study, predictors of END were investigated in patients with SSI in the MCA after IVT.

METHODS

Patients with SSI in the MCA territory who had received IVT between June 2020 and 2022 were included. END was defined as an increase in the total National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score by ≥2 or in the motor NIHSS score by ≥1 within the first 72 h of admission. Patients with proximal (pSSI) and distal SSI (dSSI) were analyzed to determine SSI type-specific predictors for END.

RESULTS

We evaluated 174 patients with SSI in the MCA territory who underwent IVT. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that pSSI (odds ratio [OR] = 0.242; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.104-0.564; p = .001), lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) (OR = 0.150; 95% CI, 0.033-0.682; p = .014), higher blood glucose (OR = 0.858; 95% CI, 0.752-0.979; p = .023), and higher red blood cells count (OR = 1.966; 95% CI, 1.154-3.349; p = .013) were risk factors for END. In patients with pSSI, HDL-C and blood glucose were associated with END. No variable related to END was found in the dSSI group.

CONCLUSIONS

The proportion of END in patients with SSI in the MCA territory after IVT was not low; therefore, pSSI, HDL-C, blood glucose, and red blood cells should be monitored closely. The frequency and predictors of SSI in the MCA territory differed between pSSI and dSSI.

Timing of Initiation of Acute Stroke Rehabilitation and Management Corresponding to Complications at Primary Stroke Centers in Japan: A Nationwide Cross-Sectional Web-Based Questionnaire Survey

INTRODUCTION

Many guidelines now recommend early rehabilitation for acute stroke patients. However, evidence remains lacking regarding the specific timings for initiation of various rehabilitation steps and management when complications are encountered in acute stroke rehabilitation. This survey aimed to investigate actual clinical situations in acute stroke rehabilitation in Japan and to improve the medical systems for rehabilitation and plan further studies.

METHODS

This nationwide, cross-sectional, web-based questionnaire survey was administered between February 7, 2022, and April 21, 2022, targeting all primary stroke centers (PSCs) in Japan. Among several components of the survey, this paper focused on the timing of the initiation of three rehabilitation steps (passive bed exercise; head elevation; and out-of-bed mobilization), along with the management of rehabilitation (continued or suspended) in the event of complications during acute stroke rehabilitation. We also investigated the influence of facility features on these contents.

RESULTS

Responses were obtained from 639 of the 959 PSCs surveyed (response rate: 66.6%). In cases of ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage, most PSCs initiated passive bed exercise on day 1, head elevation on day 1, and out-of-bed mobilization on day 2 (with day of admission defined as day 1). In cases with subarachnoid hemorrhage, rehabilitation steps were delayed compared to other stroke subtypes or showed wide variation depending on the facility. Passive bed exercise was accelerated by the presence of protocols for rehabilitation and weekend rehabilitation. Out-of-bed mobilization was accelerated by the presence of a stroke care unit. Facilities with board-certified rehabilitation doctors were cautious regarding the initiation of head elevation. Most PSCs suspended rehabilitation training in the event of symptomatic systemic/neurological complications.

CONCLUSION

Our survey revealed the actual situation of acute stroke rehabilitation in Japan and indicated that some facility features appear to influence early increases in physical activity levels and early mobilization. Our survey provides fundamental data to improve the medical systems for acute stroke rehabilitation in the future.

Association between Rapid Ventricular Response and Stroke Outcomes in Atrial Fibrillation-Related Cardiac Embolic Stroke

INTRODUCTION

Patients with atrial fibrillation-related stroke (AF-stroke) are prone to developing rapid ventricular response (RVR). We investigated whether RVR is associated with initial stroke severity, early neurological deterioration (END) and poor outcome at 3 months.

METHODS

We reviewed patients who had AF-stroke between January 2017 and March 2022. RVR was defined as having heart rate >100 beats per minute on initial electrocardiogram. Neurological deficit was evaluated with National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score at admission. END was defined as increase of ≥2 in total NIHSS score or ≥1 in motor NIHSS score within first 72 h. Functional outcome was score on modified Rankin Scale at 3 months. Mediation analysis was performed to examine potential causal chain in which initial stroke severity may mediate relationship between RVR and functional outcome.

RESULTS

We studied 568 AF-stroke patients, among whom 86 (15.1%) had RVR. Patients with RVR had higher initial NIHSS score (p < 0.001) and poor outcome at 3 months (p = 0.004) than those without RVR. The presence of RVR [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 2.13; p = 0.013] was associated with initial stroke severity, but not with END and functional outcome. Otherwise, initial stroke severity [aOR = 1.27; p = <0.001] was significantly associated with functional outcome. Initial stroke severity as a mediator explained 58% of relationship between RVR and poor outcome at 3 months.

CONCLUSION

In patients with AF-stroke, RVR was independently associated with initial stroke severity but not with END and functional outcome. Initial stroke severity mediated considerable proportion of association between RVR and functional outcome.

The role of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein serum levels in the prognosis for patients with stroke: a meta-analysis

Background

The impact of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) as a biomarker of inflammation on the prognosis of stroke patients remains controversial, this study was conducted to evaluate the prognostic value of hs-CRP levels for patients with stroke.

Methods

PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and Cochrane Library databases were searched from inception to October 28, 2022. Outcome measures were all-cause mortality, recurrent stroke, and poor prognosis. The relationship between the highest versus lowest levels of hs-CRP or per unit increment and outcomes as measured by risk ratio (RR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Results

A total of 39 articles were eligible for meta-analysis. High hs-CRP levels at admission were associated with mortality among patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) [RR = 3.84, 95% CI (2.41 ~ 6.111); p < 0.001], risk of recurrent stroke [RR = 1.88, 95%CI (1.41 ~ 2.52); p < 0.001], and poor prognosis [RR = 1.77, 95% CI (1.59 ~ 1.97); p < 0.001]. The risk ratios for the association of per unit increase in hs-CRP levels with mortality, risk of recurrent stroke, and poor prognosis were as follows, respectively: 1.42 [95% CI (1.19-1.69); p < 0.001], 1.03 [95% CI (1.01-1.04); p = 0.003], and 1.27 [95% CI (1.10-1.47); p = 0.001]. For hemorrhagic stroke (HS), the risk ratios (RR) for the highest versus the lowest (reference) category of hsCRP or per unit increment to all-cause mortality were 4.36 [95% CI (1.38-13.73); p = 0.012] and 1.03 [95% CI (0.98-1.08); p = 0.238].

Conclusion

Hs-CRP levels are strongly associated with mortality, risk of stroke recurrence and poor prognosis in stroke patients. Therefore, hs-CRP levels may contribute to the prognosis prediction of these patients.

Elevated NT-proBNP predicts unfavorable outcomes in patients with acute ischemic stroke after thrombolytic therapy

OBJECTIVE

Few studies correlated n-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) with early neurological deterioration (END) and prognosis of acute ischaemic stroke (AIS) patients with rt-PA intravenous thrombolysis. Therefore this study aimed to investigate the relationship between NT-proBNP and END, and prognosis after intravenous thrombolysis in patients with AIS.

METHODS

A total of 325 patients with AIS were enrolled. We performed the natural logarithm transformation on the NT-proBNP [ln(NT-proBNP)]. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the relationship between ln(NT-proBNP) and END, and prognosis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to show the sensitivity and specificity of NT-proBNP.

RESULTS

After thrombolysis, among 325 patients with AIS, 43 patients (13.2%) developed END. In addition, three months follow-up showed a poor prognosis in 98 cases (30.2%) and a good prognosis in 227 cases (69.8%). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that ln(NT-proBNP) was an independent risk factor for END (OR = 1.450,95%CI:1.072 ~ 1.963, P = 0.016) and poor prognosis at three months follow-up (OR = 1.767, 95%CI: 1.347 ~ 2.317, P < 0.001) respectively. According to ROC curve analysis, ln(NT-proBNP) (AUC 0.735, 95%CI: 0.674 ~0.796, P < 0.001) had a good predictive value for poor prognosis, with a predictive value of 5.12 and sensitivity and specificity of 79.59% and 60.35% respectively. When combined with NIHSS to predict END(AUC 0.718, 95%CI: 0.631 ~ 0.805, P < 0.001) and poor prognosis(AUC 0.780, 95%CI: 0.724 ~ 0.836, P < 0.001), the predictive value of the model is further improved.

CONCLUSION

NT-proBNP is independently associated with END and poor prognosis in patients with AIS following intravenous thrombolysis and has a particular predictive value for END and poor prognosis.

Red blood cell distribution width to platelet ratio predicts early neurological deterioration in acute ischemic stroke patients receiving intravenous thrombolysis

BACKGROUND

Inflammation plays a prominent role in the pathogenesis and progression of acute ischemic stroke (AIS). The red blood cell distribution width to platelet ratio (RPR) has been demonstrated as a novel biomarker to indicate the severity of inflammatory reaction. This study aimed to explore the association between RPR before intravenous thrombolysis and early neurological deterioration (END) after thrombolysis in AIS patients.

METHODS

AIS patients accepting intravenous thrombolysis were recruited continuously. Postthrombolysis END was defined as death or an increase in the National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score ≥4 points within 24 h after intravenous thrombolysis compared to the NIHSS score before intravenous thrombolysis. We constructed univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses to investigate the relationship of RPR before intravenous thrombolysis to postthrombolysis END. Moreover, a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was applied to examine the discriminative utility of RPR before intravenous thrombolysis in predicting postthrombolysis END.

RESULTS

A total of 235 AIS patients were included, and 31 (13.19%) subjects underwent postthrombolysis END. The univariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that RPR before intravenous thrombolysis was significantly related to postthrombolysis END (odds ratio [OR], 2.162; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.605-2.912; P < 0.001). After adjusting for potential confounding variables with P < 0.15 in the univariate logistic regression analysis, the difference remained statistically significant (OR, 2.031; 95% CI, 1.436-2.873; P < 0.001). Furthermore, an optimal cutoff value of 7.66 for RPR before intravenous thrombolysis in predicting postthrombolysis END was observed in the ROC curve analysis, and the sensitivity and specificity were calculated as 61.3% and 81.9%, respectively (area under the curve [AUC], 0.772; 95% CI, 0.684-0.860; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

RPR before intravenous thrombolysis might be an independent risk factor for postthrombolysis END in AIS patients. Elevated levels of RPR before intravenous thrombolysis may predict postthrombolysis END.

Machine Learning Models for Predicting Early Neurological Deterioration and Risk Classification of Acute Ischemic Stroke

This study aimed to create machine learning models for predicting early neurological deterioration and risk classification in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) before intravenous thrombolysis (IVT). The study included 704 AIS patients categorized into END and non-END groups. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was employed to select the best predictors from clinical indicators, leading to the creation of Model 1. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses identified independent predictive factors for END from inflammatory cell ratios. These factors were combined with clinical indicators, forming Model 2. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves assessed the models' predictive performance. Key variables for Model 1 included the NIHSS score, systolic blood pressure, and lymphocyte percentage. Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte ratio, Platelet-to-Neutrophil ratio, and Platelet-to-Lymphocyte ratio independently predicted END. Model 1 exhibited moderate predictive ability (AUC 0.721 in training, AUC 0.635 in test). Model 2, which integrated clinical indicators and inflammatory cell ratios, demonstrated strong performance in both training (AUC 0.862) and test (AUC 0.816). Machine learning models, combining clinical indicators and inflammatory cell ratios before IVT, accurately predict END and associated risk in AIS.