Identification and Comparison of Patient Characteristics for Those Hospitalized with COVID-19 versus Influenza Using Machine Learning in a Commercially Insured US Population

Comparison of Hospitalized Coronavirus Disease 2019 and Influenza Patients Requiring Supplemental Oxygen in a Cohort Study: Clinical Impact and Resource Consumption

BACKGROUND

To compare clinical characteristics, outcomes, and resource consumption of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and seasonal influenza requiring supplemental oxygen.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study conducted at a tertiary-care hospital. Patients admitted because of seasonal influenza between 2017 and 2019, or with COVID-19 between March and May 2020 requiring supplemental oxygen were compared. Primary outcome: 30-day mortality. Secondary outcomes: 90-day mortality and hospitalization costs. Attempted sample size to detect an 11% difference in mortality was 187 patients per group.

RESULTS

COVID-19 cases were younger (median years of age, 67; interquartile range [IQR] 54-78 vs 76 [IQR 64-83]; P < .001) and more frequently overweight, whereas influenza cases had more hypertension, immunosuppression, and chronic heart, respiratory, and renal disease. Compared with influenza, COVID-19 cases had more pneumonia (98% vs 60%, <.001), higher Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) and CURB-65 (confusion, blood urea nitrogen, respiratory rate, systolic blood pressure, and age >65 years) scores and were more likely to show worse progression on the World Health Organization ordinal scale (33% vs 4%; P < .001). The 30-day mortality rate was higher for COVID-19 than for influenza: 15% vs 5% (P = .001). The median age of nonsurviving cases was 81 (IQR 74-88) and 77.5 (IQR 65-84) (P = .385), respectively. COVID-19 was independently associated with 30-day (hazard ratio [HR], 4.6; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2-10.4) and 90-day (HR, 5.2; 95% CI, 2.4-11.4) mortality. Sensitivity and subgroup analyses, including a subgroup considering only patients with pneumonia, did not show different trends. Regarding resource consumption, COVID-19 patients had longer hospital stays and higher critical care, pharmacy, and complementary test costs.

CONCLUSIONS

Although influenza patients were older and had more comorbidities, COVID-19 cases requiring supplemental oxygen on admission had worse clinical and economic outcomes.