The Survival Status and Predictors of Mortality Among Stroke Patients at North West Ethiopia

Incidence of mortality and risk factors among adult stroke patients in public hospitals Jigjiga town Somali region, Ethiopia: Cohort study design

Background

A stroke is a sudden loss of blood supply to the brain, leading to permanent tissue damage caused by embolism, thrombosis, or hemorrhagic events. Almost 85% of strokes are ischemic strokes.

Objective

To assess the incidence of mortality and risk factors among adult stroke patients in public hospitals of Jigjiga town, Somali Region, Ethiopia.

Methods

An institution-based retrospective cohort study was conducted from 25 May to 15 June 2022 at Sheikh Hassen Yabare Referral Hospital and Karamara Hospital. Data were entered using Epi-Data version 4.3 and exported to be analyzed using SPSS 20 statistical software. Kaplan-Meier was used to estimate mean survival time, and a predictor with a p-value < 0.05 was considered to have a significant in multivariate Cox regression.

Results

About 480 stroke patients' charts were included in this study; among those, 229 (53.3%) were male stroke patients, and 259 (60.2%) had an ischemic stroke. The overall incidence rate was 7.15 deaths per 1000 person-day observations. The overall median survival time for adult stroke patients was 120 days. GCS level b/n 3-8 has a lower survival time with a mean survival time of 57 days (95% CI: 48.8-66.7) as compared to those who had GCS level 9-12 with a mean survival time of 103 days (95% CI: 93.4-112.9). Age ⩾ 71 (AHR = 1.9; 95% CI: 1.02-3.45), presence of pneumonia (AHR = 2.7; 95% CI: 1.52-4.63), and history of hypertension (AHR = 2.07; 95% CI: 1.08-3.89) were the predictors of mortality among stroke patients.

Conclusion

According to the findings of this study, the incidence of mortality was high, at 7.15 per 1000 person-years. The presence of pneumonia, decreased GCS, age ⩾ 7, and history of hypertension were predictors of mortality in adult stroke patients.

Exploring functional abilities and competing risks among stroke patients: a longitudinal and survival analysis study at Felege Hiwot Referral Hospital, Ethiopia

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to evaluate competing risks and functional ability measures among patients who had a stroke.

DESIGN

A joint model comprising two related submodels was applied: a cause-specific hazard submodel for competing drop-out and stroke-related death risks, and a partial proportional odd submodel for longitudinal functional ability.

SETTING

Felege Hiwot Referral Hospital, Ethiopia.

PARTICIPANTS

The study included 400 patients who had a stroke from the medical ward outpatient stroke unit at Felege Hiwot Referral Hospital, who were treated from September 2018 to August 2021.

RESULTS

Among the 400 patients who had a stroke, 146 (36.5%) died and 88 (22%) dropped out. At baseline, 14% of patients had no symptoms and/or disability while 24% had slight disability, and 25% had severe disability. Most patients (37.04%) exhibited moderate functional ability. The presence of diabetes increased the cause-specific hazard of death by 3.95 times (95% CI 2.16 to 7.24) but decreased the cause-specific hazard of drop-out by 95% (aHR 0.05; 95% CI 0.01 to 0.46) compared with non-diabetic patients who had a stroke.

CONCLUSION

A substantial proportion of patients who had a stroke experienced mortality and drop-out during the study period, highlighting the importance of considering competing risks in stroke research. Age, diabetes, white cell count and stroke complications were significant covariates affecting both longitudinal and survival submodels. Compared with stand-alone models, the joint competing risk modelling technique offers comprehensive insights into the disease's transition pattern.

Treatment outcomes, types, risk factors, and common manifestations of stroke among admitted stroke patients in Ethiopia: Systematic review and meta-analyses

INTRODUCTION

Stroke is the sudden onset of a reduced cerebral perfusion-related localized or widespread neurologic impairment. The two main causes of poor treatment outcomes are uncontrolled blood pressure and hospital arrival delays. Identifying the risk factors, types of stroke presentation, and treatment options might be used in the prevention, early detection, and management of stroke to provide the best care to patients.

OBJECTIVE

This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to assess the treatment outcomes, types, and risk factors of stroke patients in Ethiopia.

METHODS

A variety of databases were searched, including African Journals Online (AJOL), Google Scholar, Scopus, EMBASE (Ovid), and HINARI, and published and unpublished articles from the Ethiopian Universities repository. To pool the outcome variables, a weighted inverse variance random-effects model at 95% Cl was employed. Heterogeneity and publication bias were assessed using Cochrane I2 statistics and Egger's test with funnel plot, respectively. A subgroup analysis was conducted based on sample size, case definition, and region to detect source of heterogeneity.

RESULT

This study contained data from 26 studies, involving 6291 study participants, from different regions of Ethiopia. Out of 19 articles with I2 = 96.1%, p<0.001, the pooled prevalence of improved stroke treatment outcome was 47.50% (95% CI: 40.20-54.80), while the prevalence of mortality was 18.95% (95% CI: 15.62-22.29) from 19 articles with I2 = 87.9%, p<0.001. In Ethiopia, ischemic stroke accounted for 59.34% of all stroke cases (95% CI: 53.73-64.95). Among risk factors, substance abuse ranked second at 36.58% (95% CI: 25.22-47.93), after hypertension at 50.90% (95% CI: 43.77-56.27). According to the findings, hemiparalysis or hemiplegia was mentioned as a frequent clinical sign associated with stroke (56.87%) (95% CI: 45.65-68.06).

CONCLUSION

The improved treatment outcome was not satisfactory, and the most common type of stroke was an ischemic stroke. Hypertension was the most common risk factor, followed by substance use. As a result, there should be a strengthening of post-stroke care and the creation of awareness about the risk factors and clinical manifestations for prevention and early detection of stroke in Ethiopian people.

Factors influencing survival outcomes in patients with stroke in Zimbabwe: A 12-month longitudinal study

Background

In this longitudinal study, we aimed to determine factors influencing survival outcomes among patients with stroke over a 12-month period. The investigation sought to uncover influential determinants to enhance the precision of prognostic assessments and inform targeted interventions for individuals affected by strokes.

Methods

Employing a longitudinal study design, participants were observed for 12 months from baseline, censoring survivors at the endpoint. The dataset originated from a comprehensive study involving stroke patients treated at three referral hospitals in Zimbabwe: Parirenyatwa, Sally Mugabe, and Chitungwiza Central Hospital. The primary outcome variable, the duration of survival until death, was measured in days from the initiation of stroke treatment. Gompertz parametric regression analysis was utilized for data modeling following Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model diagnostics.

Results

In our study, 188 stroke patients were enrolled at baseline. However, 51 patients were excluded from the analysis due to either missing information or loss to follow-up. Among the remaining 137 patients who were tracked over a 12-month period, 42% were censored, and 58% were deceased. Individuals utilizing 'Free Service (older than 65/pensioners/retirees)' hospital bill payment methods showed a decreased risk of death (HR: 0.4, 95% CI: 0.20, 0.80), suggesting a protective effect compared to cash paying patients. Those with a secondary school level education displayed a significantly lower risk of death (HR: 0.2, 95% CI: 0.04, 0.69) compared to those without formal education. Age was a significant factor, with individuals aged 45-65 and those over 65 years showing higher adjusted hazard ratios (HR: 4.9, 95% CI: 1.80, 13.25; HR: 5.5, 95% CI: 1.92, 15.95, respectively) relative to those below 45 years of age. Housing status revealed a protective effect for those residing with parents/relatives (adjusted HR: 0.4, 95% CI: 0.20, 0.66), while individuals with a 'Very severe' functional outcome showed an increased hazard (adjusted HR: 4.9, 95% CI: 1.12, 21.33).

Conclusion

The study findings demonstrate that hospital bill payment methods, housing status, educational attainment, functional outcome, and age significantly affect survival outcomes among stroke patients. This highlights the need to consider socio-demographic and clinical variables in the development of prognostic assessments and targeted interventions for individuals recovering from stroke.

Diagnostic performance of plasma D-dimer, fibrinogen, and D-dimer to fibrinogen ratio as potential biomarkers to predict hypertension-associated acute ischemic stroke

Background

Ischemic stroke is a common type of stroke that leads to death and functional disability in hypertensive patients. However, there are no well-studied non-invasive and less expensive fluid biomarkers routinely used to detect ischemic stroke in hypertensive patients. Hence, this study aimed to tease out the performance of D-dimer, fibrinogen, and the D-dimer to fibrinogen ratio (DDFR) in predicting hypertension-associated acute ischemic stroke.

Methods

A hospital-based cross-sectional study was done from October 2022 to January 2022 at Yikatit 12 Hospital Medical College, Ethiopia. We recruited 55 hypertensive patients who had an ischemic stroke and 110 who did not. A ROC curve was used to calculate the areas under the curves (AUCs) and determine the diagnostic power of the D-dimer, fibrinogen, and DDFR. The Youden index was used to find the best cut-off points for biomarkers in detecting acute ischemic stroke. A De Long test was employed to show whether there was a significant difference between the AUCs of biomarkers in diagnosing ischemic stroke.

Results

D-dimer yielded the highest diagnostic power (AUC = 0.776) in detecting acute ischemic stroke, followed by DDFR (AUC = 0.763) and fibrinogen (AUC = 0.694), but there was no significant difference between them. At 0.52 μg/ml cut-off point, D-dimer had 82.9% sensitivity, 66.7% specificity, 62.5% PPV, and 85.3% NPV to diagnose acute ischemic stroke. Fibrinogen could detect acute ischemic stroke at 405.85 mg/dl level, with 70.0% sensitivity, 57.1% specificity, 41.2% PPV and 81.6% NPV. At a 1.83 ratio, DDFR might also identify ischemic stroke with 80.0% sensitivity, 67.1% specificity, 51.1% PPV, and 88.7% NPV.

Conclusion

We showed D-dimer, fibrinogen, and DDFR as promising, affordable, and non-invasive biomarkers for the detection of ischemic stroke among subjects with hypertension. This will help clinicians make an early diagnosis and better guide patient therapy.

30-day in-hospital stroke case fatality and significant risk factors in sub-Saharan-Africa: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Existing studies investigating 30-day in-hospital stroke case fatality rates in sub-Saharan Africa have produced varying results, underscoring the significance of obtaining precise and reliable estimations for this indicator. Consequently, this study aimed to conduct a systematic review and update of the current scientific evidence regarding 30-day in-hospital stroke case fatality and associated risk factors in sub-Saharan Africa. Medline/PubMed, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), APA PsycNet (encompassing PsycINFO and PsychArticle), Google Scholar, and Africa Journal Online (AJOL) were systematically searched to identify potentially relevant articles. Two independent assessors extracted the data from the eligible studies using a pre-tested and standardized excel spreadsheet. Outcomes were 30-day in-hospital stroke case fatality and associated risk factors. Data was pooled using random effects model. Ninety-three (93) studies involving 42,057 participants were included. The overall stroke case fatality rate was 27% [25%-29%]. Subgroup analysis revealed 24% [21%-28%], 25% [21%-28%], 29% [25%-32%] and 31% [20%-43%] stroke case fatality rates in East Africa, Southern Africa, West Africa, and Central Africa respectively. Stroke severity, stroke type, untyped stroke, and post-stroke complications were identified as risk factors. The most prevalent risk factors were low (<8) Glasgow Coma Scale score, high (≥10) National Institute Health Stroke Scale score, aspiration pneumonia, hemorrhagic stroke, brain edema/intra-cranial pressure, hyperglycemia, untyped stroke (stroke diagnosis not confirmed by neuroimaging), recurrent stroke and fever. The findings indicate that one in every four in-hospital people with stroke in sub-Saharan Africa dies within 30 days of admission. Importantly, the identified risk factors are mostly modifiable and preventable, highlighting the need for context-driven health policies, clinical guidelines, and treatments targeting these factors.

Survival status and predictors of mortality among adult Stroke patients admitted to Jimma University Medical Center, South west Ethiopia: A retrospective Cohort study

Background

Stroke is the leading cause of cardiovascular disease death in sub-Saharan Africa and the second leading cause of mortality worldwide. In 2016, 6.23% of all fatalities in Ethiopia were stroke-related.

Objective

To assess survival status and predictors of mortality among adult stroke patients admitted to Jimma University Medical Center from April 1/2017 to March 31/2022.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 480 adult stroke patients selected by simple random sampling from patients admitted to the Jimma University Medical Center Stroke Unit from April 1, 2017 to March 31, 2022. Data were extracted from May to June 2022 and entered Epi-data v.3.1 and analyzed by R v.4.2. The Kaplan-Meier curve with Log rank test was used to estimate survival time and to compare survival experience between categories of explanatory variables. The Cox regression model was computed to identify predictors of survival status in stroke patients. Then the 95% CI of the hazard ratio was set with corresponding p-value < 0.05 to declare statistical significance.

Results

During 4350 person-days of follow-up; 88 (18.33%) patients died; resulting in an incidence mortality of 20.23 per 1000 person-days, with a median survival time of 38 days. Glasgow coma score <8 on admission (AHR = 7.71; 95% CI: 3.78, 15.69), dyslipidemia (AHR = 3.96; 95% CI: 2.04, 7.69), aspiration pneumonia (AHR 2.30; 95% CI: 1.23-4.26), and increased intracranial pressure (AHR = 4.27; 95% CI: 2.33, 7.81), were the independent predictors of the time until death.

Conclusion

The incidence of stroke mortality was higher at the seven and fourteen days. Glasgow Coma Scale, increased intracranial pressure, dyslipidemia, and aspiration pneumonia were independent predictors of mortality.

Clinical characteristics and short-term outcomes of adult stroke patients admitted to Jimma Medical Center, Ethiopia: a prospective cohort study

Introduction

sub-Saharan African countries are facing a rapid increase in stroke incidence and mortality. However, there is a paucity of clinical studies on the burden of stroke and its short-term outcomes. Hence, this study is aimed at evaluating risk factors, clinical characteristics, management, and 28-day clinical outcomes among stroke patients.

Methods

a prospective observational study was conducted at Jimma Medical Center, Ethiopia from July 2020 to January 31^st, 2021. All adult patients diagnosed with stroke were enrolled consecutively and followed for 28 days starting from admission. Data were analyzed using SPSS version 23 and Multivariable cox regression was used to identify factors associated with 28-day all-cause mortality.

Results

among 153 patients enrolled in this study, 127 (83%) had brain CT-scan and hemorrhagic stroke accounts for 66 (52%). About half 81 (53%) of the participants were male and the mean age was 57 years. Regarding in-hospital management, antihypertensive, statins, and aspirin was given to 80 (52%), 72 (47%), and 68 (44%) patients respectively. The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 26 (17%) and the all-cause 28-day mortality rate was 39 (25.5%). Rural residence [adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR): 2.93, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.46-5.81], aspiration pneumonia (aHR= 6.57, 95% CI=3.16-13.66) and increased intracranial pressure (aHR= 3.27, 95% CI=1.56-6.86) were associated with 28-day mortality.

Conclusion

the patients admitted to the hospital with stroke diagnosis had high short-term mortality. Strategies focused on increasing timely arrival and evidence-based management of stroke and its complications could improve stroke patient outcomes.

In-hospital mortality and its predictors among adult stroke patients admitted in Debre Markos Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia

Introduction

Stroke is the second-leading global cause of death next to ischemic heart disease. The burden of stroke mortality, morbidity, and disability is increasing across the world. In Ethiopia, evidence on the survival status of adult stroke patients is insufficient. The purpose of this study is to estimate in-hospital mortality and its predictors among adult stroke patients.

Methods

Institution-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted on adult stroke patients who were admitted to Debre Markos Comprehensive Specialized Hospital from 1 November 2015 to 31 October 2020. Through simple random sampling, 382 patient charts were selected from 1125 stroke patients for 5 years follow-up period. Data were entered using EpiData™ version 4.1 and exported to Stata/SE™ version 14 for cleaning, coding, categorizing, and analysis. Predictor variables were selected using 95% confidence interval with a corresponding adjusted hazard ratio.

Results

In this study, 219 (57.33%) males and the mean (standard deviation) age of 57.65 ± 14.3 years. The in-hospital mortality rate of stroke was 12.8%; the median (interquartile range) time to mortality and Glasgow Coma Scale were 7 (4-13) days and 14 (11-15), respectively. The incidence of in-hospital mortality was 29/1000, 11/1000, 8/1000, and 13.6/1000 person-days in the first, second, third, and end of follow-up weeks, respectively. Pneumonia (adjusted hazard ratio = 3.51 (95% confidence interval = 1.86, 6.61)), hemorrhagic stroke (adjusted hazard ratio = 2.03 (95% confidence interval = 1.03, 3.99)), moderate impairment Glasgow Coma Scale (9-12) (adjusted hazard ratio = 2.16 (95% confidence interval = 1.08, 4.29)), severe impairment Glasgow Coma Scale (3-8) (adjusted hazard ratio = 2.38 (95% confidence interval = 1.01, 5.67)), history of hypertension (adjusted hazard ratio = 2.01 (95% confidence interval = 1.08, 3.74)), and increased intracranial pressure (adjusted hazard ratio = 2.12 (95% confidence interval = 1.10, 4.07)) were statistically significant predictors for in-hospital mortality.

Conclusion

In-hospital mortality of stroke was relatively high, and the median time to mortality was 8 days. Pneumonia, hemorrhagic stroke, Glasgow Coma Scale, history of hypertension, and increased intracranial pressure were identified predictors.

Survival status and predictor of mortality among adult stroke patients in Saint Paul’s hospital millennium medical college, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Objective:

In Africa, there is up to 316 per 100,000 annual incidence rate of stroke, a prevalence of up to 1460 per 100,000, and a 3-year mortality rate higher than 80%. The incidence of stroke mortality in Ethiopia is 19.2%. Stroke is a major cause of disability and death worldwide. Early mortality in-hospital and deprived functional outcomes are common in acute stroke. This study aims to assess survival status and predictors of mortality among adult stroke patients.

Methods:

Institution-based retrospective cohort was conducted on patients who were admitted to Saint Paul’s Hospital Millennium Medical College. A simple random sampling technique was used. Bivariate and multivariable cox regression analysis were used to identify predictors of stroke mortality. For multivariable cox regression analysis statistically, significance was declared at p-value <0.05 and 95% CI.

Results:

A total of 251 adult stroke patient charts were included in the study. The overall Kaplan–Meier estimate showed that the probability of in-hospital stroke patients’ survival on the 41st day was nearly 50%. In this study, 77 (30.7%) of the study participants died. Decreased Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) with adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) 4.26 (95% CI: 2.25–8.07) and p-value ⩽ 0.01 and presence of pneumonia with AHR 3.05 (95% CI: 1.29–7.21) and p-value ⩽ 0.01 are the predictor of mortality.

Conclusion:

The probability of survival relatively falls as follow-up time increases. The overall incidence of mortality among adult stroke patients was high. The decreased GCS and the presence of pneumonia are predictors of mortality among adult stroke patients.