Cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy for prevention

Cost-effectiveness of differentiated care models that incorporate economic strengthening for HIV antiretroviral therapy adherence: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

There is some evidence that differentiated service delivery (DSD) models, which use a client-centered approach to simplify and increase access to care, improve clinical outcomes among people living with HIV (PLHIV) in high HIV prevalence countries. Integrating economic strengthening tools (e.g., microcredit, cash transfers, food assistance) within DSD models can help address the poverty-related barriers to HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART). Yet there is minimal evidence of the cost-effectiveness of these types of multilevel care delivery models, which potentially prohibits their wider implementation.

METHODS

Using a qualitative systematic review, this article synthesizes the literature surrounding the cost-effectiveness of differentiated service delivery models that employ economic strengthening initiatives to improve HIV treatment adherence in low- and middle-income countries. We searched three academic databases for randomized controlled trials and observational studies published from January 2000 through March 2024 in Sub-Saharan Africa. The quality of each study was scored using a validated appraisal system.

RESULTS

Eighty-nine full texts were reviewed and 3 met all eligibility criteria. Two of the three included articles were specific to adolescents living with HIV. Economic strengthening opportunities varied by care model, and included developmental savings accounts, microenterprise workshops, and cash and non-cash conditional incentives. The main drivers of programmatic and per-patient costs were ART medications, CD4 cell count testing, and economic strengthening activities.

CONCLUSION

All economic evaluations in this review found that including economic strengthening as part of comprehensive differentiated service delivery was cost-effective at a willingness to pay threshold of at least 2 times the national per capita gross domestic product. Two of the three studies in this review focused on adolescents, suggesting that these types of care models may be especially cost-effective for youth entering adulthood. All studies were from the provider perspective, indicating that additional evidence is needed to inform the potential cost-savings of DSD and economic strengthening interventions to patients and society. Randomized trials testing the effectiveness of DSD models that integrate economic strengthening should place greater emphasis on costing these types of programs to inform the potential for bringing these types of multilevel interventions to scale.

The Cost-Effectiveness of HIV/STI Prevention in High-Income Countries with Concentrated Epidemic Settings: A Scoping Review

The purpose of this scoping review is to establish the state of the art on economic evaluations in the field of HIV/STI prevention in high-income countries with concentrated epidemic settings and to assess what we know about the cost-effectiveness of different measures. We reviewed economic evaluations of HIV/STI prevention measures published in the Web of Science and Cost-Effectiveness Registry databases. We included a total of 157 studies focusing on structural, behavioural, and biomedical interventions, covering a variety of contexts, target populations and approaches. The majority of studies are based on mathematical modelling and demonstrate that the preventive measures under scrutiny are cost-effective. Interventions targeted at high-risk populations yield the most favourable results. The generalisability and transferability of the study results are limited due to the heterogeneity of the populations, settings and methods involved. Furthermore, the results depend heavily on modelling assumptions. Since evidence is unequally distributed, we discuss implications for future research.

Baseline and time-updated factors in preclinical development of anionic dendrimers as successful anti-HIV-1 vaginal microbicides

Although a wide variety of topical microbicides provide promising in vitro and in vivo efficacy, most of them failed to prevent sexual transmission of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) in human clinical trials. In vitro, ex vivo, and in vivo models must be optimized, considering the knowledge acquired from unsuccessful and successful clinical trials to improve the current gaps and the preclinical development protocols. To date, dendrimers are the only nanotool that has advanced to human clinical trials as topical microbicides to prevent HIV-1 transmission. This fact demonstrates the importance and the potential of these molecules as microbicides. Polyanionic dendrimers are highly branched nanocompounds with potent activity against HIV-1 that disturb HIV-1 entry. Herein, the most significant advancements in topical microbicide development, trying to mimic the real-life conditions as closely as possible, are discussed. This review also provides the preclinical assays that anionic dendrimers have passed as microbicides because they can improve current antiviral treatments' efficacy. This article is categorized under: Nanotechnology Approaches to Biology > Nanoscale Systems in Biology Therapeutic Approaches and Drug Discovery > Nanomedicine for Infectious Disease Toxicology and Regulatory Issues in Nanomedicine > Regulatory and Policy Issues in Nanomedicine.

An Islamic Microfinance Approach to Scaling up the Economic Life of Vulnerable People with HIV/AIDS in the Muslim Society

People with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) commonly pose problems to their family as well as to society because of their vulnerable health and economic conditions. Contrarily, PLWHA encounter social discrimination and adverse realities while finding it difficult to continue in their jobs. These complex phenomena interact to push them into a low economic status. A microfinance program can hopefully assist poor patients to cope with the negative economic consequences of this disease. But the conventional market-oriented microfinance institutions show reluctance to serve this group of people due to the possibilities of having credit risk. In this paper, we propose an alternative microfinancing technique that can provide a better economic life of the PLWHA while absorbing the credit risks. A comprehensive model is designed using specific Islamic financial instruments in conjugation with household economic portfolio theory. Critical realism method was adopted to construct this model. We concluded that the application of Islamic microfinance can enhance income of HIV patients while reducing the productivity-loss. This model can be useful to the microfinance practitioners and policymakers for addressing a different market segment, diversifying products, and formulating policy.

The Cost-Effectiveness of Financial Incentives for Viral Suppression: HPTN 065 Study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of financial incentives for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) viral suppression compared to standard of care.

STUDY DESIGN

Mathematical model of 2-year intervention offering financial incentives ($70 quarterly) for viral suppression (<400 copies/ml3) based on the HPTN 065 clinical trial with HIV patients in the Bronx, NY and Washington, D.C.

METHODS

A disease progression model with HIV transmission risk equations was developed following guidelines from the Second Panel on Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine. We used health care sector and societal perspectives, 3% discount rate, and lifetime horizon. Data sources included trial data (baseline N = 16,208 patients), CDC HIV Surveillance data, and published literature. Outcomes were costs (2017 USD), quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), HIV infections prevented, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER).

RESULTS

Financial incentives for viral suppression were estimated to be cost-saving from a societal perspective and cost-effective ($49,877/QALY) from a health care sector perspective. Compared to the standard of care, financial incentives gain 0.06 QALYs and lower discounted lifetime costs by $4210 per patient. The model estimates that incentivized patients transmit 9% fewer infections than the standard-of-care patients. In the sensitivity analysis, ICER 95% credible intervals ranged from cost-saving to $501,610/QALY with 72% of simulations being cost-effective using a $150,000/QALY threshold. Modeling results are limited by uncertainty in efficacy from the clinical trial.

CONCLUSIONS

Financial incentives, as used in HTPN 065, are estimated to improve quality and length of life, reduce HIV transmissions, and save money from a societal perspective. Financial incentives offer a promising option for enhancing the benefits of medication in the United States.

Indicator condition-guided HIV testing with an electronic prompt in primary healthcare: a before and after evaluation of an intervention

OBJECTIVE

Indicator condition (IC)-guided HIV testing is a strategy for the diagnosis of patients with HIV. The aim of this study was to assess the impact on the proportion of HIV tests requested after the introduction of an electronic prompt instructing primary healthcare (PHC) physicians to request an HIV test when diagnosing predefined IC.

METHODS

A prospective interventional study was conducted in 2015 in three PHC centres in Barcelona to assess the number of HIV test requests made during the implementation of an electronic prompt. Patients aged 18-65 years without HIV infection and with a new diagnosis of predefined IC were included. The results were compared with preprompt (2013) and postprompt data (2016).

RESULTS

During the prompt period, 832 patients presented an IC (median age 41.6 years [IQR 30-54], 48.2% female). HIV tests were requested in 296 individuals (35, 6%) and blood tests made in 238. Four HIV infections were diagnosed (positivity rate 1.7%, 95% CI 0.5% to 4.4%). The number of HIV tests requested based on IC increased from 12.6% in 2013 to 35.6% in 2015 (p<0.001) and fell to 17.9% after removal of the prompt in 2016 (p<0.001). Younger patient age (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.96 to 0.98), birth outside Spain (OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.06 to 2.21) and younger physician age (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.96 to 0.99) were independent predictive factors for an HIV test request during the prompt period. The electronic prompt (OR 3.36, 95% CI 2.70 to 4.18) was the factor most closely associated with HIV test requests. It was estimated that 10 (95% CI 3.0 to 26.2) additional new cases would have been diagnosed if an HIV test had been performed in all patients presenting an IC.

CONCLUSIONS

A significant increase in HIV test requests was observed during the implementation of the electronic prompt. The results suggest that this strategy could be useful in increasing IC-guided HIV testing in PHC centres.

Pediatric neurosurgical workforce, access to care, equipment and training needs worldwide

OBJECTIVE

The presence and capability of existing pediatric neurosurgical care worldwide is unknown. The objective of this study was to solicit the expertise of specialists to quantify the geographic representation of pediatric neurosurgeons, access to specialist care, and equipment and training needs globally.

METHODS

A mixed-question survey was sent to surgeon members of several international neurosurgical and general pediatric surgical societies via a web-based platform. Respondents answered questions on 5 categories: surgeon demographics and training, hospital and practice details, surgical workforce and access to neurosurgical care, training and equipment needs, and desire for international collaboration. Responses were anonymized and analyzed using Stata software.

RESULTS

A total of 459 surgeons from 76 countries responded. Pediatric neurosurgeons in high-income and upper-middle-income countries underwent formal pediatric training at a greater rate than surgeons in low- and lower-middle-income countries (89.5% vs 54.4%). There are an estimated 2297 pediatric neurosurgeons in practice globally, with 85.6% operating in high-income and upper-middle-income countries. In low- and lower-middle-income countries, roughly 330 pediatric neurosurgeons care for a total child population of 1.2 billion. In low-income countries in Africa, the density of pediatric neurosurgeons is roughly 1 per 30 million children. A higher proportion of patients in low- and lower-middle-income countries must travel > 2 hours to seek emergency neurosurgical care, relative to high-income countries (75.6% vs 33.6%, p < 0.001). Vast basic and essential training and equipment needs exist, particularly low- and lower-middle-income countries within Africa, South America, the Eastern Mediterranean, and South-East Asia. Eighty-nine percent of respondents demonstrated an interest in international collaboration for the purposes of pediatric neurosurgical capacity building.

CONCLUSIONS

Wide disparity in the access to pediatric neurosurgical care exists globally. In low- and lower-middle-income countries, wherein there exists the greatest burden of pediatric neurosurgical disease, there is a grossly insufficient presence of capable providers and equipped facilities. Neurosurgeons across income groups and geographic regions share a desire for collaboration and partnership.

Financial mobilization for antiretroviral therapy program: multi-level predictors of willingness to pay among patients with HIV/AIDS in Vietnam

In Vietnam, significant progress has been made in increasing the number of patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the last number of years. As this number increases and international aid and funding for HIV services declines, a greater proportion of ART funding will need to be provided by the government budget, health insurance or by the patients themselves. This study aims to evaluate the willingness of HIV patients to pay for ART. A cross-sectional study which included 1133 HIV-positive patients was conducted across 8 outpatient centers in Hanoi and Nam Binh in Northern Vietnam in 2013. Contingent valuation method was used to assess the willingness to pay (WTP) of patient for ART. Over 90% of the patients were willing to pay for ART for an average amount of 19.7 USD per month. Regression models showed that the willingness of patients to pay for ART was influenced by factors such as employment, income, quality of life and social factors. The amount patients were willing to pay was also associated with gender, living place and level of HIV service administration. By establishing these factors which influence the amount of WTP for ART, plans for the future can be effectively designed and patient groups at risk can be appropriately managed.

Economic and public health consequences of delayed access to medical care for migrants living with HIV in France

In 2013, migrants accounted for 46% of newly diagnosed cases of HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) infection in France. These populations meet with specific obstacles leading to late diagnosis and access to medical care. Delayed access to care (ATC) for HIV-infected migrants reduces their life expectancy and quality of life. Given the reduction of infectivity under antiretroviral (ARV) treatment, delayed ATC for HIV-infected migrants may also hinder the control of the HIV epidemic. The objective of this study is to measure the public health and economic consequences of delayed ATC for migrants living with HIV in France. Using a healthcare payer perspective, our model compares the lifetime averted infections and costs of early vs. late ATC for migrants living with HIV in France. Early and late ATC are defined by an entry into care with a CD4 cell count of 350 and 100/mm³, respectively. Our results show that an early ATC is dominant, even in the worst-case scenario. In the most favorable scenario, early ATC generates an average net saving of €198,000 per patient, and prevents 0.542 secondary infection. In the worst-case scenario, early ATC generates an average net saving of €32,000 per patient, and prevents 0.299 secondary infection. These results are robust to various adverse changes in key parameters and to a definition of late ATC as an access to care at a CD4 level of 200/mm³. In addition to individual health benefits, improving ATC for migrants living with HIV proves efficient in terms of public health and economics. These results stress the benefit of ensuring early ATC for all individuals living with HIV in France.

Modelling the cost-effectiveness of HIV care shows a clear benefit when transmission risk is considered in the calculations - A message for Central and Eastern Europe

BACKGROUND

HIV epidemic remains a major global health issue. Data from cost-effectiveness analyses base on CD4+ count and morbidity in patients with symptomatic and asymptomatic HIV infection. The approach adopted in these analyses includes many other factors, previously not investigated. Additionally, we evaluate the impact of sexual HIV transmission due to delayed cART on the cost-effectiveness of care.

METHODS

A lifetime Markov model (1-month cycle) was developed to estimate the cost per quality adjusted life years (QALY) for a 1- and 3-year delay in starting cART (as compared to starting immediately at linkage to care) lifetime costs, clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness. Patients were categorized into having asymptomatic HIV, AIDS, Hodgkin's Lymphoma, and non-AIDS defining condition. Mortality rates and utility values were obtained from published literature. The number of new infected persons was estimated on the basis of sexual orientation, the number of sexual partners per year, the number of sex acts per month, frequency of condom use and use of cART. For the input Test and Keep in Care (TAK) project cohort data were used. Costs of care, cART and potential life-years lost were based on estimated total costs and the difference in expected QALY gained between an HIV-positive and an average person in Polish population. Costs were based on real expenditures of the Ministry of Health, National Health Fund, available studies and experts' opinion. Costs and effects were discounted at rates of 5% and 3.5%, respectively.

RESULTS

Input data were available for 141 patients form TAK cohort. The estimated number of new HIV infections in low, medium and high risk transmission groups were 0.28, 0.61, 2.07 with 1 and 0.82, 1.80, 6.11 with a 3-year delay, respectively. This reflected QALY loss due to cART delay of 0.52, 1.13, 3.84 and 2.02, 4.43, 15.03 for a 1- and 3-year delay, respectively. If additional costs of treatment and potential life-years lost due to new HIV infections were not taken into account, initiating cART immediately at linkage to care was not cost-saving irrespective of cART delay. Otherwise, when additional costs and QALY lost due to new HIV infections were included, immediate cART initiation was cost-saving regardless of the chosen scenarios.

CONCLUSIONS

If new HIV infections are not taken into account, then starting cART immediately does not dominate comparing to delaying cART. When taking into account HIV transmission in cost-effectiveness analysis, immediate initiation of HIV treatment is a profitable decision from the public payer's perspective.

A practical online tool to estimate antiretroviral coverage for HIV infected and susceptible populations needed to reduce local HIV epidemics

It remains unclear what proportions of HIV-infected and uninfected people should receive effective antiretroviral therapy (ART) to control local HIV epidemics. We developed a flexible model to evaluate the impact of treatment as prevention (TasP) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) on HIV incidence in local communities. We evaluated this tool for determining what TasP and PrEP targets are needed to substantially reduce the HIV epidemic in San Diego, which is predominately comprised of men who have sex with men. By increasing the proportion of HIV-infected individuals on ART from 30% to 50%, 686 new infections would be prevented over five years in San Diego. By providing PrEP to 30% of MSM to the age group that account for 90% of local HIV incident cases (21-52 years), we could prevent 433 infections over five years. When combining these initiatives, a PrEP coverage rate of 40% and TasP coverage rate of 34% would be expected to decrease the number of new infections by over half in one year. This online tool is designed to help local public health planners and policy makers to estimate program outcomes and costs that may lead to better control of their local HIV epidemics.

HIV Epidemic in Asia: Implications for HIV Vaccine and Other Prevention Trials

An overall decrease of HIV prevalence is now observed in several key Asian countries due to effective prevention programs. The decrease in HIV prevalence and incidence may further improve with the scale-up of combination prevention interventions. The implementation of future prevention trials then faces important challenges. The opportunity to identify heterosexual populations at high risk such as female sex workers may rapidly wane. With unabating HIV epidemics among men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender (TG) populations, an effective vaccine would likely be the only option to turn the epidemic. It is more likely that efficacy trials will occur among MSM and TG because their higher HIV incidence permits smaller and less costly trials. The constantly evolving patterns of HIV-1 diversity in the region suggest close monitoring of the molecular HIV epidemic in potential target populations for HIV vaccine efficacy trials. CRF01_AE remains predominant in southeast Asian countries and MSM populations in China. This relatively steady pattern is conducive to regional efficacy trials, and as efficacy warrants, to regional licensure. While vaccines inducing nonneutralizing antibodies have promise against HIV acquisition, vaccines designed to induce broadly neutralizing antibodies and cell-mediated immune responses of greater breadth and depth in the mucosal compartments should be considered for testing in MSM and TG. The rationale and design of efficacy trials of combination prevention modalities such as HIV vaccine and preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) remain hypothetical, require high adherence to PrEP, are more costly, and present new regulatory challenges. The prioritization of prevention interventions should be driven by the HIV epidemic and decided by the country-specific health and regulatory authorities. Modeling the impact and cost-benefit may help this decision process.

Estimating the Impact of Earlier ART Initiation and Increased Testing Coverage on HIV Transmission among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Mexico using a Mathematical Model

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the impact of late ART initiation on HIV transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Mexico.

METHODS

An HIV transmission model was built to estimate the number of infections transmitted by HIV-infected men who have sex with men (MSM-HIV+) MSM-HIV+ in the short and long term. Sexual risk behavior data were estimated from a nationwide study of MSM. CD4+ counts at ART initiation from a representative national cohort were used to estimate time since infection. Number of MSM-HIV+ on treatment and suppressed were estimated from surveillance and government reports. Status quo scenario (SQ), and scenarios of early ART initiation and increased HIV testing were modeled.

RESULTS

We estimated 14239 new HIV infections per year from MSM-HIV+ in Mexico. In SQ, MSM take an average 7.4 years since infection to initiate treatment with a median CD4+ count of 148 cells/mm3(25th-75th percentiles 52-266). In SQ, 68% of MSM-HIV+ are not aware of their HIV status and transmit 78% of new infections. Increasing the CD4+ count at ART initiation to 350 cells/mm3 shortened the time since infection to 2.8 years. Increasing HIV testing to cover 80% of undiagnosed MSM resulted in a reduction of 70% in new infections in 20 years. Initiating ART at 500 cells/mm3 and increasing HIV testing the reduction would be of 75% in 20 years.

CONCLUSION

A substantial number of new HIV infections in Mexico are transmitted by undiagnosed and untreated MSM-HIV+. An aggressive increase in HIV testing coverage and initiating ART at a CD4 count of 500 cells/mm3 in this population would significantly benefit individuals and decrease the number of new HIV infections in Mexico.

Reaching the unreached: treatment as prevention as a workable strategy to mitigate HIV and its consequences in high-risk groups

While there have been significant advances in curbing the HIV disease epidemic worldwide, there continues to be significant number of incident cases with 2.3 million new infections in the year 2012 alone. Treatment as prevention (TasP), which involves the use of antiretroviral drugs to decrease the likelihood of HIV illness, death and transmission from infected individuals to their noninfected sexual and /or drug paraphernalia-sharing injecting partners, must be incorporated into any HIV prevention strategy that is going to be successful on a large scale. Especially in resource-limited settings, the focus of the prevention approach should be on high-risk groups who contribute disproportionately to community HIV transmission, including people who inject drugs (PWID), men who have sex with men (MSM) and sex workers. Innovative strategies including integrated care services adapted to different patient care settings have to and can be employed to reach these at-risk populations.

Stakeholder Engagement in HIV Cure Research: Lessons Learned from Other HIV Interventions and the Way Forward

Clinical and basic science advances have raised considerable hope for achieving an HIV cure by accelerating research. This research is dominated primarily by issues about the nature and design of current and future clinical trials. Stakeholder engagement for HIV cure remains in its early stages. Our analysis examines timing and mechanisms of historical stakeholder engagement in other HIV research areas for HIV-uninfected individuals [vaccine development and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP)], and HIV-infected individuals (treatment as prevention, prevention of mother-to-child transmission, and treatment of acute HIV infection) and articulate a plan for HIV cure stakeholder engagement. The experience from HIV vaccine development shows that early engagement of stakeholders helped manage expectations, mitigating the failure of several vaccine trials, while paving the way for subsequent trials. The relatively late engagement of HIV stakeholders in PrEP research may partly explain some of the implementation challenges. The treatment-related stakeholder engagement was strong and community-led from the onset and helped translation from research to implementation. We outline five steps to initiate and sustain stakeholder engagement in HIV cure research and conclude that stakeholder engagement represents a key investment in which stakeholders mutually agree to share knowledge, benefits, and risk of failure. Effective stakeholder engagement prevents misconceptions. As HIV cure research advances from early trials involving subjects with generally favorable prognosis to studies involving greater risk and uncertainty, success may depend on early and deliberate engagement of stakeholders.

Cost-effectiveness of first-line antiretroviral therapy for HIV-infected African children less than 3 years of age

Background:

The International Maternal, Pediatric, and Adolescent Clinical Trials P1060 trial demonstrated superior outcomes for HIV-infected children less than 3 years old initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) with lopinavir/ritonavir compared to nevirapine, but lopinavir/ritonavir is four-fold costlier.

Design/methods:

We used the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC)-Pediatric model, with published and P1060 data, to project outcomes under three strategies: no ART; first-line nevirapine (with second-line lopinavir/ritonavir); and first-line lopinavir/ritonavir (second-line nevirapine). The base-case examined South African children initiating ART at age 12 months; sensitivity analyses varied all key model parameters. Outcomes included life expectancy, lifetime costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios [ICERs; dollars/year of life saved ($/YLS)]. We considered interventions with ICERs less than 1× per-capita gross domestic product (South Africa: $7500)/YLS as ‘very cost-effective,’ interventions with ICERs below 3× gross domestic product/YLS as ‘cost-effective,’ and interventions leading to longer life expectancy and lower lifetime costs as ‘cost-saving’.

Results:

Projected life expectancy was 2.8 years with no ART. Both ART regimens markedly improved life expectancy and were very cost-effective, compared to no ART. First-line lopinavir/ritonavir led to longer life expectancy (28.8 years) and lower lifetime costs ($41 350/person, from lower second-line costs) than first-line nevirapine (27.6 years, $44 030). First-line lopinavir/ritonavir remained cost-saving or very cost-effective compared to first-line nevirapine unless: liquid lopinavir/ritonavir led to two-fold higher virologic failure rates or 15-fold greater costs than in the base-case, or second-line ART following first-line lopinavir/ritonavir was very ineffective.

Conclusions:

On the basis of P1060 data, first-line lopinavir/ritonavir leads to longer life expectancy and is cost-saving or very cost-effective compared to first-line nevirapine. This supports WHO guidelines, but increasing access to pediatric ART is critical regardless of the regimen used.

Scaling up of HIV treatment for men who have sex with men in Bangkok: a modelling and costing study

BACKGROUND

Despite the high prevalence of HIV in men who have sex with men (MSM) in Bangkok, little investment in HIV prevention for MSM has been made. HIV testing and treatment coverage remains low. Through a pragmatic programme-planning approach, we assess possible service linkage and provision of HIV testing and antiretroviral treatment (ART) to MSM in Bangkok, and the most cost-effective scale-up strategy.

METHODS

We obtained epidemiological and service capacity data from the Thai National Health Security Office database for 2011. We surveyed 13 representative medical facilities for detailed operational costs of HIV-related services for sexually active MSM (defined as having sex with men in the past 12 months) in metropolitan Bangkok. We estimated the costs of various ART scale-up scenarios, accounting for geographical accessibility across Bangkok. We used an HIV transmission population-based model to assess the cost-effectiveness of the scenarios.

FINDINGS

For present HIV testing (23% [95% CI 17-36] of MSM at high risk in 2011) and ART provision (20% of treatment-eligible MSM at high risk on ART in 2011) to be sustained, a US$73·8 million ($51·0 million to $97·0 million) investment during the next decade would be needed, which would link an extra 43,000 (27,900-58,000) MSM at high risk to HIV testing and 5100 (3500-6700) to ART, achieving an ART coverage of 44% for MSM at high risk in 2022. An additional $55·3 million investment would link an extra 46,700 (30,300-63,200) MSM to HIV testing and 12,600 (8800-16,600) to ART, achieving universal ART coverage of this population by 2022. This increased investment is achievable within present infrastructure capacity. Consequently, an estimated 5100 (3600-6700) HIV-related deaths and 3700 (2600-4900) new infections could be averted in MSM by 2022, corresponding to a 53% reduction in deaths and a 35% reduction in infections from 2012 levels. The expansion would cost an estimated $10,809 (9071-13,274) for each HIV-related death, $14,783 (12,389-17,960) per new infection averted, and $351 (290-424) per disability-adjusted life-year averted.

INTERPRETATION

Spare capacity in Bangkok's medical facilities can be used to expand ART access for MSM with large epidemiological benefits. The expansion needs increased funding directed to MSM services, but given the epidemiological trends, is probably cost effective. Our modelling approach and outcomes are likely to be applicable to other settings.

FUNDING

World Bank Group and Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Cost-effectiveness of the non-pneumatic anti-shock garment (NASG): evidence from a cluster randomized controlled trial in Zambia and Zimbabwe

BACKGROUND

Obstetric hemorrhage is the leading cause of maternal mortality, particularly in low resource settings where delays in obtaining definitive care contribute to high rates of death. The non-pneumatic anti-shock garment (NASG) first-aid device has been demonstrated to be highly cost-effective when applied at the referral hospital (RH) level. In this analysis we evaluate the incremental cost-effectiveness of early NASG application at the Primary Health Center (PHC) compared to later application at the RH in Zambia and Zimbabwe.

METHODS

We obtained data on health outcomes and costs from a cluster-randomized clinical trial (CRCT) and participating study hospitals. We translated health outcomes into disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) using standard methods. Econometric regressions estimated the contribution of earlier PHC NASG application to DALYs and costs, varying geographic covariates (country, referral hospital) to yield regression models best fit to the data. We calculated cost-effectiveness as the ratio of added costs to averted DALYs for earlier PHC NASG application compared to later RH NASG application.

RESULTS

Overall, the cost-effectiveness of early application of the NASG at the primary health care level compared to waiting until arrival at the referral hospital was $21.78 per DALY averted ($15.51 in added costs divided by 0.712 DALYs averted per woman, both statistically significant). By country, the results were very similar in Zambia, though not statistically significant in Zimbabwe. Sensitivity analysis suggests that results are robust to a per-protocol outcome analysis and are sensitive to the cost of blood transfusions.

CONCLUSIONS

Early NASG application at the PHC for women in hypovolemic shock has the potential to be cost-effective across many clinical settings. The NASG is designed to reverse shock and decrease further bleeding for women with obstetric hemorrhage; therefore, women who have received the NASG earlier may be better able to survive delays in reaching definitive care at the RH and recover more quickly from shock, all at a cost that is highly acceptable.

The cost-effectiveness of harm reduction

HIV prevalence worldwide among people who inject drugs (PWID) is around 19%. Harm reduction for PWID includes needle-syringe programs (NSPs) and opioid substitution therapy (OST) but often coupled with antiretroviral therapy (ART) for people living with HIV. Numerous studies have examined the effectiveness of each harm reduction strategy. This commentary discusses the evidence of effectiveness of the packages of harm reduction services and their cost-effectiveness with respect to HIV-related outcomes as well as estimate resources required to meet global and regional coverage targets. NSPs have been shown to be safe and very effective in reducing HIV transmission in diverse settings; there are many historical and very recent examples in diverse settings where the absence of, or reduction in, NSPs have resulted in exploding HIV epidemics compared to controlled epidemics with NSP implementation. NSPs are relatively inexpensive to implement and highly cost-effective according to commonly used willingness-to-pay thresholds. There is strong evidence that substitution therapy is effective, reducing the risk of HIV acquisition by 54% on average among PWID. OST is relatively expensive to implement when only HIV outcomes are considered; other societal benefits substantially improve the cost-effectiveness ratios to be highly favourable. Many studies have shown that ART is cost-effective for keeping people alive but there is only weak supportive, but growing evidence, of the additional effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of ART as prevention among PWID. Packages of combined harm reduction approaches are highly likely to be more effective and cost-effective than partial approaches. The coverage of harm reduction programs remains extremely low across the world. The total annual costs of scaling up each of the harm reduction strategies from current coverage levels, by region, to meet WHO guideline coverage targets are high with ART greatest, followed by OST and then NSPs. But scale-up of all three approaches is essential. These interventions can be cost-effective by most thresholds in the short-term and cost-saving in the long-term.

What is needed to eliminate new pediatric HIV infections: the contribution of model-based analyses

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Computer simulation models can identify key clinical, operational, and economic interventions that will be needed to achieve the elimination of new pediatric HIV infections. In this review, we summarize recent findings from model-based analyses of strategies for prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (MTCT).

RECENT FINDINGS

In order to achieve elimination of MTCT (eMTCT), model-based studies suggest that scale-up of services will be needed in several domains: uptake of services and retention in care (the PMTCT 'cascade'), interventions to prevent HIV infections in women and reduce unintended pregnancies (the 'four-pronged approach'), efforts to support medication adherence through long periods of pregnancy and breastfeeding, and strategies to make breastfeeding safer and/or shorter. Models also project the economic resources that will be needed to achieve these goals in the most efficient ways to allocate limited resources for eMTCT. Results suggest that currently recommended PMTCT regimens (WHO Option A, Option B, and Option B+) will be cost-effective in most settings.

SUMMARY

Model-based results can guide future implementation science, by highlighting areas in which additional data are needed to make informed decisions and by outlining critical interventions that will be necessary in order to eliminate new pediatric HIV infections.

Cost-effectiveness of World Health Organization 2010 guidelines for prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission in Zimbabwe

BACKGROUND

In 2010, the World Health Organization (WHO) released revised guidelines for prevention of mother-to-child human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission (PMTCT). We projected clinical impacts, costs, and cost-effectiveness of WHO-recommended PMTCT strategies in Zimbabwe.

METHODS

We used Zimbabwean data in a validated computer model to simulate a cohort of pregnant, HIV-infected women (mean age, 24 years; mean CD4 count, 451 cells/µL; subsequent 18 months of breastfeeding). We simulated guideline-concordant care for 4 PMTCT regimens: single-dose nevirapine (sdNVP); WHO-recommended Option A, WHO-recommended Option B, and Option B+ (lifelong maternal 3-drug antiretroviral therapy regardless of CD4). Outcomes included maternal and infant life expectancy (LE) and lifetime healthcare costs (2008 US dollars [USD]). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs, in USD per year of life saved [YLS]) were calculated from combined (maternal + infant) discounted costs and LE.

RESULTS

Replacing sdNVP with Option A increased combined maternal and infant LE from 36.97 to 37.89 years and would reduce lifetime costs from $5760 to $5710 per mother-infant pair. Compared with Option A, Option B further improved LE (38.32 years), and saved money within 4 years after delivery ($5630 per mother-infant pair). Option B+ (LE, 39.04 years; lifetime cost, $6620 per mother-infant pair) improved maternal and infant health, with an ICER of $1370 per YLS compared with Option B.

CONCLUSIONS

Replacing sdNVP with Option A or Option B will improve maternal and infant outcomes and save money; Option B increases health benefits and decreases costs compared with Option A. Option B+ further improves maternal outcomes, with an ICER (compared with Option B) similar to many current HIV-related healthcare interventions.

Transitioning HIV care and treatment programs in southern Africa to full local management

Global AIDS programs such as the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) face a challenging health care management transition. HIV care must evolve from vertically-organized, externally-supported efforts to sustainable, locally controlled components that are integrated into the horizontal primary health care systems of host nations. We compared four southern African nations in AIDS care, financial, literacy, and health worker capacity parameters (2005 to 2009) to contrast in their capacities to absorb the huge HIV care and prevention endeavors that are now managed with international technical and fiscal support. Botswana has a relatively high national income, a small population, and an advanced HIV/AIDS care program; it is well poised to take on management of its HIV/AIDS programs. South Africa has had a slower start, given HIV denialism philosophies of the previous government leadership. Nonetheless, South Africa has the national income, health care management, and health worker capacity to succeed in fully local management. The sheer magnitude of the burden is daunting, however, and South Africa will need continuing fiscal assistance. In contrast, Zambia and Mozambique have comparatively lower per capita incomes, many fewer health care workers per capita, and lower national literacy rates. It is improbable that fully independent management of their HIV programs is feasible on the timetable being contemplated by donors, nor is locally sustainable financing conceivable at present. A tailored nation-by-nation approach is needed for the transition to full local capacitation; donor nation policymakers must ensure that global resources and technical support are not removed prematurely.