Predicting Metabolic Syndrome With Machine Learning Models Using a Decision Tree Algorithm: Retrospective Cohort Study

Interpreting the Epidemiological Characteristics of HIV-1 in Heterosexually Transmitted Population Based on Molecular Transmission Network in Kunming, Yunnan: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Heterosexuals have become the most prevalent group of HIV-1 in Kunming, Yunnan Province. Utilizing the principle of genetic similarity between their gene sequences, we built a molecular transmission network by gathering data from earlier molecular epidemiological studies. This allowed us to analyze the epidemiological features of this group and offer fresh concepts and approaches for the prevention and management of HIV-1 epidemics. Cytoscope was used to visualize and characterize the network following the processing of the sample gene sequences by BioEdit and HyPhy. The number of possible links and the size of the clusters were investigated as influencing factors using a zero-inflated Poisson model and a logistic regression model, respectively. A scikit-learn-based prediction model was developed to account for the dynamic changes in the HIV-1 molecular network. Six noteworthy modular clusters with network scores ranging from 4 to 9 were found from 150 clusters using Molecular Complex Detection analysis at a standard genetic distance threshold of 0.01. The size of the number of possible links and the network's clustering rate were significantly impacted by sampling time, marital status, and CD4+ T lymphocytes (all p < 0.05). The gradient boosting machine (GBM) model had the highest area under the curve value, 0.884 ± 0.051, according to scikit-learn. Though not all cluster subtypes grew equally, the network clusters were relatively specific and aggregated. The largest local transmission-risk group for HIV-1CRF08_BC is now the heterosexual transmission population. The most suitable model for constructing the HIV-1 molecular network dynamics prediction model was found to be the GBM model.

Prediction of metabolic syndrome using machine learning approaches based on genetic and nutritional factors: a 14-year prospective-based cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Metabolic syndrome is a chronic disease associated with multiple comorbidities. Over the last few years, machine learning techniques have been used to predict metabolic syndrome. However, studies incorporating demographic, clinical, laboratory, dietary, and genetic factors to predict the incidence of metabolic syndrome in Koreans are limited. In the present study, we propose a genome-wide polygenic risk score for the prediction of metabolic syndrome, along with other factors, to improve the prediction accuracy of metabolic syndrome.

METHODS

We developed 7 machine learning-based models and used Cox multivariable regression, deep neural network (DNN), support vector machine (SVM), stochastic gradient descent (SGD), random forest (RAF), Naïve Bayes (NBA) classifier, and AdaBoost (ADB) to predict the incidence of metabolic syndrome at year 14 using the dataset from the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study (KoGES) Ansan and Ansung.

RESULTS

Of the 5440 patients, 2,120 were considered to have new-onset metabolic syndrome. The AUC values of model, which included sex, age, alcohol intake, energy intake, marital status, education status, income status, smoking status, dried laver intake, and genome-wide polygenic risk score (gPRS) Z-score based on 344,447 SNPs (p-value < 1.0), were the highest for RAF (0.994 [95% CI 0.985, 1.000]) and ADB (0.994 [95% CI 0.986, 1.000]).

CONCLUSIONS

Incorporating both gPRS and demographic, clinical, laboratory, and seaweed data led to enhanced metabolic syndrome risk prediction by capturing the distinct etiologies of metabolic syndrome development. The RAF- and ADB-based models predicted metabolic syndrome more accurately than the NBA-based model for the Korean population.

Health Star Rating of Nonalcoholic, Packaged, and Ready-to-Drink Beverages in Türkiye: A Decision Tree Model Study

This study aimed to compare the nutritional quality of beverages sold in Türkiye according to their labeling profiles. A total of 304 nonalcoholic beverages sold in supermarkets and online markets with the highest market capacity in Türkiye were included. Milk and dairy products, sports drinks, and beverages for children were excluded. The health star rating (HSR) was used to assess the nutritional quality of beverages. The nutritional quality of beverages was evaluated using a decision tree model according to the HSR score based on the variables presented on the beverage label. Moreover, confusion matrix tests were used to test the model's accuracy. The mean HSR score of beverages was 2.6±1.9, of which 30.2% were in the healthy category (HSR≥3.5). Fermented and 100% fruit juice beverages had the highest mean HSR scores. According to the decision tree model of the training set, the predictors of HSR quality score, in order of importance, were as follows: added sugar (46%), sweetener (28%), additives (19%), fructose-glucose syrup (4%), and caffeine (3%). In the test set, the accuracy rate and F1 score were 0.90 and 0.82, respectively, suggesting that the prediction performance of our model had the perfect fit. According to the HSR classification, most beverages were found to be unhealthy. Thus, they increase the risk of the development of obesity and other diseases because of their easy consumption. The decision tree learning algorithm could guide the population to choose healthy beverages based on their labeling information.

Specific patterns and potential risk factors to predict 3-year risk of death among non-cancer patients with advanced chronic kidney disease by machine learning

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major public health concern. But there are limited machine learning studies on non-cancer patients with advanced CKD, and the results of machine learning studies on cancer patients with CKD may not apply directly on non-cancer patients. We aimed to conduct a comprehensive investigation of risk factors for a 3-year risk of death among non-cancer advanced CKD patients with an estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60.0 mL/min/1.73m2 by several machine learning algorithms. In this retrospective cohort study, we collected data from in-hospital and emergency care patients from 2 hospitals in Taiwan from 2009 to 2019, including their international classification of disease at admission and laboratory data from the hospital's electronic medical records (EMRs). Several machine learning algorithms were used to analyze the potential impact and degree of influence of each factor on mortality and survival. Data from 2 hospitals in northern Taiwan were collected with 6565 enrolled patients. After data cleaning, 26 risk factors and approximately 3887 advanced CKD patients from Shuang Ho Hospital were used as the training set. The validation set contained 2299 patients from Taipei Medical University Hospital. Predictive variables, such as albumin, PT-INR, and age, were the top 3 significant risk factors with paramount influence on mortality prediction. In the receiver operating characteristic curve, the random forest had the highest values for accuracy above 0.80. MLP, and Adaboost had better performance on sensitivity and F1-score compared to other methods. Additionally, SVM with linear kernel function had the highest specificity of 0.9983, while its sensitivity and F1-score were poor. Logistic regression had the best performance, with an area under the curve of 0.8527. Evaluating Taiwanese advanced CKD patients' EMRs could provide physicians with a good approximation of the patients' 3-year risk of death by machine learning algorithms.

Development and validation of a lifestyle risk index to screen for metabolic syndrome and its components in two multi-ethnic cohorts

BACKGROUND

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a precursor to cardiovascular diseases and type 2 diabetes. Existing MetS prediction models relied heavily on biochemical measures and those based on non-invasive predictors such as lifestyle behaviours were limited. We aim to (1) develop a weighted lifestyle risk index for MetS and (2) externally validate this index using two Asian-based cohorts in Singapore.

METHODS

Using data from the Multi-Ethnic Cohort (MEC) 1 (n = 2873, 41% male), multiple logistic regression was used to identify predictors associated with MetS. A weighted lifestyle risk index was generated using coefficients of the selected predictors in the development cohort (MEC1). Subsequently, the performance of the lifestyle risk index in predicting the occurrence of MetS within 10 years was assessed by discrimination and calibration in an external validation cohort (MEC2) (n = 6070, 43% male).

RESULTS

A lifestyle risk index for MetS with nine predictors was developed (age, sex, ethnicity, having a family history of diabetes, BMI, diet, physical activity, smoking status, and screen time). This index demonstrated acceptable discrimination in the development cohort [AUC (95% CI) = 0.74 (0.71, 0.76)] and the validation cohort [AUC (95% CI) = 0.79 (0.77, 0.81)].

CONCLUSION

This lifestyle risk index exhibits potential for risk stratification in population-based screening programmes. Future research could apply a similar methodology to develop disease-specific lifestyle risk indices using nationwide registry-based data.

Automated Machine Learning to Develop Predictive Models of Metabolic Syndrome in Patients with Periodontal Disease

Metabolic syndrome is experiencing a concerning and escalating rise in prevalence today. The link between metabolic syndrome and periodontal disease is a highly relevant area of research. Some studies have suggested a bidirectional relationship between metabolic syndrome and periodontal disease, where one condition may exacerbate the other. Furthermore, the existence of periodontal disease among these individuals significantly impacts overall health management. This research focuses on the relationship between periodontal disease and metabolic syndrome, while also incorporating data on general health status and overall well-being. We aimed to develop advanced machine learning models that efficiently identify key predictors of metabolic syndrome, a significant emphasis being placed on thoroughly explaining the predictions generated by the models. We studied a group of 296 patients, hospitalized in SCJU Sibiu, aged between 45-79 years, of which 57% had metabolic syndrome. The patients underwent dental consultations and subsequently responded to a dedicated questionnaire, along with a standard EuroQol 5-Dimensions 5-Levels (EQ-5D-5L) questionnaire. The following data were recorded: DMFT (Decayed, Missing due to caries, and Filled Teeth), CPI (Community Periodontal Index), periodontal pockets depth, loss of epithelial insertion, bleeding after probing, frequency of tooth brushing, regular dental control, cardiovascular risk, carotid atherosclerosis, and EQ-5D-5L score. We used Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) frameworks to build predictive models in order to determine which of these risk factors exhibits the most robust association with metabolic syndrome. To gain confidence in the results provided by the machine learning models provided by the AutoML pipelines, we used SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values for the interpretability of these models, from a global and local perspective. The obtained results confirm that the severity of periodontal disease, high cardiovascular risk, and low EQ-5D-5L score have the greatest impact in the occurrence of metabolic syndrome.

Metabolic dysfunction: The silenced connection with fatty liver disease

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) represents a global public health burden. Despite the increase in its prevalence, the disease has not received sufficient attention compared to the associated diseases such as diabetes mellitus and obesity. In 2020 it was proposed to rename NAFLD to metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) in order to recognize the metabolic risk factors and the complex pathophysiological mechanisms associated with its development. Furthermore, along with the implementation of the proposed diagnostic criteria, the aim is to address the whole clinical spectrum of the disease, regardless of BMI and the presence of other hepatic comorbidities. As would it be expected with such a paradigm shift, differing viewpoints have emerged regarding the benefits and disadvantages of renaming fatty liver disease. The following review aims to describe the way to the MAFLD from a historical, pathophysiological and clinical perspective in order to highlight why MAFLD is the approach to follow.

Comparison of diagnostic accuracy of models combining the renal biomarkers in predicting renal scarring in pediatric population with vesicoureteral reflux (VUR)

INTRODUCTION

Renal scarring is prominently observed in children with vesicoureteral reflux (VUR) and can lead to complicated renal outcomes. Although biopsy is the gold standard to detect renal scarring, it is an invasive procedure. There are established renal biomarkers which can help detect renal scarring. Individual biomarkers have not shown to have extensively good discriminatory ability for this.

AIM

This paper aims at combining the values of multiple biomarkers in models to detect renal scarring.

METHODOLOGY

Secondary data with the values of renal biomarkers like kidney injury molecule-1, neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), and urinary creatinine along with the renal scarring status was considered. Logistic regression, discriminant analysis, Bayesian logistic regression, Naïve Bayes, and decision tree models were developed with these markers. The discriminatory ability of individual biomarkers along with the models was assessed using the area under the curve from ROC curve. Sensitivity, specificity, and misclassification rates were estimated and compared.

RESULTS

NGAL was the most predominant renal biomarker in classifying the patients with renal scarring (AUC: 0.77 (0.67, 0.87); p value < 0.001). Each of the model performed better than individual biomarkers. Decision tree (AUC: 0.83 (0.74, 0.91); p value < 0.001) and Naïve Bayes model (misclassification rate = 20.2%) performed the best amongst the models.

CONCLUSION

Combining the values of renal biomarkers through a statistical or machine learning model to detect renal scarring is a better approach as compared to considering individual renal biomarkers.

Exploring the Potential Performance of Fibroscan for Predicting and Evaluating Metabolic Syndrome using a Feature Selected Strategy of Machine Learning

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) includes several conditions that can increase an individual's predisposition to high-risk cardiovascular events, morbidity, and mortality. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a predominant cause of cirrhosis, which is a global indicator of liver transplantation and is considered the hepatic manifestation of MetS. FibroScan® provides an accurate and non-invasive method for assessing liver steatosis and fibrosis in patients with NAFLD, via a controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) and liver stiffness measurement (LSM or E) scores and has been widely used in current clinical practice. Several machine learning (ML) models with a recursive feature elimination (RFE) algorithm were applied to evaluate the importance of the CAP score. Analysis by ANOVA revealed that five symptoms at different CAP and E score levels were significant. All eight ML models had accuracy scores > 0.9, while treebags and random forest had the best kappa values (0.6439 and 0.6533, respectively). The CAP score was the most important variable in the seven ML models. Machine learning models with RFE demonstrated that using the CAP score to identify patients with MetS may be feasible. Thus, a combination of CAP scores and other significant biomarkers could be used for early detection in predicting MetS.

Development of a Metabolic Syndrome Classification and Prediction Model for Koreans Using Deep Learning Technology: The Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) (2013-2018)

The prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and its cost are increasing due to lifestyle changes and aging. This study aimed to develop a deep neural network model for prediction and classification of MetS according to nutrient intake and other MetS-related factors. This study included 17,848 individuals aged 40-69 years from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2013-2018). We set MetS (3-5 risk factors present) as the dependent variable and 52 MetS-related factors and nutrient intake variables as independent variables in a regression analysis. The analysis compared and analyzed model accuracy, precision and recall by conventional logistic regression, machine learning-based logistic regression and deep learning. The accuracy of train data was 81.2089, and the accuracy of test data was 81.1485 in a MetS classification and prediction model developed in this study. These accuracies were higher than those obtained by conventional logistic regression or machine learning-based logistic regression. Precision, recall, and F1-score also showed the high accuracy in the deep learning model. Blood alanine aminotransferase (β = 12.2035) level showed the highest regression coefficient followed by blood aspartate aminotransferase (β = 11.771) level, waist circumference (β = 10.8555), body mass index (β = 10.3842), and blood glycated hemoglobin (β = 10.1802) level. Fats (cholesterol [β = -2.0545] and saturated fatty acid [β = -2.0483]) showed high regression coefficients among nutrient intakes. The deep learning model for classification and prediction on MetS showed a higher accuracy than conventional logistic regression or machine learning-based logistic regression.

Application of C5.0 Algorithm for the Assessment of Perceived Stress in Healthcare Professionals Attending COVID-19

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) represents one of the greatest challenges to public health in modern history. As the disease continues to spread globally, medical and allied healthcare professionals have become one of the most affected sectors. Stress and anxiety are indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, it is paramount to understand and categorize their perceived levels of stress, as it can be a detonating factor leading to mental illness. Here, we propose a computer-based method to better understand stress in healthcare workers facing COVID-19 at the beginning of the pandemic. We based our study on a representative sample of healthcare professionals attending to COVID-19 patients in the northeast region of Mexico, at the beginning of the pandemic. We used a machine learning classification algorithm to obtain a visualization model to analyze perceived stress. The C5.0 decision tree algorithm was used to study datasets. We carried out an initial preprocessing statistical analysis for a group of 101 participants. We performed chi-square tests for all questions, individually, in order to validate stress level calculation (p < 0.05) and a calculated Cronbach's alpha of 0.94 and McDonald's omega of 0.95, demonstrating good internal consistency in the dataset. The obtained model failed to classify only 6 out of the 101, missing two cases for mild, three for moderate and one for severe (accuracy of 94.1%). We performed statistical correlation analysis to ensure integrity of the method. In addition, based on the decision tree model, we concluded that severe stress cases can be related mostly to high levels of xenophobia and compulsive stress. Thus, showing that applied machine learning algorithms represent valuable tools in the assessment of perceived stress, which can potentially be adapted to other areas of the medical field.

Metabolic syndrome screening in adolescents: New scores AI_METS based on artificial intelligence techniques

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) definitions in adolescents based on the percentiles of its components are rather complicated to use in clinical practice. The aim of this study was to test the validity of artificial intelligence (AI)-based scores (AI_METS) that do not use these percentiles for MetS screening for adolescents.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This study included 1086 adolescents aged 12 to 18. The cohort underwent anthropometric measurements and blood tests. Mean blood pressure (MBP), and triglyceride glucose index (TyG) were calculated. Explainable AI methods are used to extract the learned function. Gini importance techniques were tested and used to build new scores for the screening of MetS. IDF, Cook, De Ferranti, Viner, and Weiss definitions of MetS were used to test the validity of these scores. MetS prevalence was 0.4%-4.7% according to these definitions. AI_METS used age, waist circumference, MBP, and TyG index. They offer area under the curves (AUCs) 0.91, 0.93, 0.89, 0.93, and 0.98; specificity 81%, 75%, 72%, 80%, and 97%; and sensitivity 90%, 100%, 90%, 100%, and 100%, respectively, for the detection of MetS according to these definitions. Considering only MBP offers a better specificity and sensitivity to detect MetS than considering only TyG index. MBP offers slightly lower performance than AI_METS.

CONCLUSION

AI techniques have proven their ability to extract knowledge from data. They allowed us to generate new scores for MetS detection in adolescents without using specific percentiles for each component. Although these scores are less intuitive than the percentile-based definition, their accuracy is rather effective for the detection of MetS.

IoT Framework for a Decision-Making System of Obesity and Overweight Extrapolation among Children, Youths, and Adults

Approximately 30% of the global population is suffering from obesity and being overweight, which is approximately 2.1 billion people worldwide. The ratio is expected to surpass 40% by 2030 if the current balance continues to grow. The global pandemic due to COVID-19 will also impact the predicted obesity rates. It will cause a significant increase in morbidity and mortality worldwide. Multiple chronic diseases are associated with obesity and several threat elements are associated with obesity. Various challenges are involved in the understanding of risk factors and the ratio of obesity. Therefore, diagnosing obesity in its initial stages might significantly increase the patient’s chances of effective treatment. The Internet of Things (IoT) has attained an evolving stage in the development of the contemporary environment of healthcare thanks to advancements in information and communication technologies. Therefore, in this paper, we thoroughly investigated machine learning techniques for making an IoT-enabled system. In the first phase, the proposed system analyzed the performances of random forest (RF), K-nearest neighbor (KNN), support vector machine (SVM), decision tree (DT), logistic regression (LR), and naïve Bayes (NB) algorithms on the obesity dataset. The second phase, on the other hand, introduced an IoT-based framework that adopts a multi-user request system by uploading the data to the cloud for the early diagnosis of obesity. The IoT framework makes the system available to anyone (and everywhere) for precise obesity categorization. This research will help the reader understand the relationships among risk factors with weight changes and their visualizations. Furthermore, it also focuses on how existing datasets can help one study the obesity nature and which classification and regression models perform well in correspondence to others.

Prediction of metabolic syndrome: A machine learning approach to help primary prevention

AIMS

To describe the performance of machine learning (ML) applied to predict future metabolic syndrome (MS), and to estimate lifestyle changes effects in MS predictions.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 17,182 adults attending a checkup program sequentially (37,999 visit pairs) over 17 years. Variables on sociodemographic attributes, clinical, laboratory, and lifestyle characteristics were used to develop ML models to predict MS [logistic regression, linear discriminant analysis, k-nearest neighbors, decision trees, Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM), Extreme Gradient Boosting]. We have tested the effects of changes in lifestyle in MS prediction at individual levels.

RESULTS

All models showed adequate calibration and good discrimination, but the LGBM showed better performance (Sensitivity = 87.8 %, Specificity = 70.2 %, AUC-ROC = 0.86). Causal inference analysis showed that increasing physical activity level and reducing BMI by at least 2 % had an effect of reducing the predicted probability of MS by 3.8 % (95 % CI = -4.8 %; -2.7 %).

CONCLUSION

ML models based on data from a checkup program showed good performance to predict MS and allowed testing for effects of lifestyle changes in this prediction. External validation is recommended to verify models' ability to identify at-risk individuals, and potentially increase their engagement in preventive measures.

“Big Data” Approaches for Prevention of the Metabolic Syndrome

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is characterized by the concurrence of multiple metabolic disorders resulting in the increased risk of a variety of diseases related to disrupted metabolism homeostasis. The prevalence of MetS has reached a pandemic level worldwide. In recent years, extensive amount of data have been generated throughout the research targeted or related to the condition with techniques including high-throughput screening and artificial intelligence, and with these “big data”, the prevention of MetS could be pushed to an earlier stage with different data source, data mining tools and analytic tools at different levels. In this review we briefly summarize the recent advances in the study of “big data” applications in the three-level disease prevention for MetS, and illustrate how these technologies could contribute tobetter preventive strategies.

Machine learning-aided risk prediction for metabolic syndrome based on 3 years study

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a group of physiological states of metabolic disorders, which may increase the risk of diabetes, cardiovascular and other diseases. Therefore, it is of great significance to predict the onset of MetS and the corresponding risk factors. In this study, we investigate the risk prediction for MetS using a data set of 67,730 samples with physical examination records of three consecutive years provided by the Department of Health Management, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, P.R. China. Specifically, the prediction for MetS takes the numerical features of examination records as well as the differential features by using the examination records over the past two consecutive years, namely, the differential numerical feature (DNF) and the differential state feature (DSF), and the risk factors of the above features w.r.t different ages and genders are statistically analyzed. From numerical results, it is shown that the proposed DSF in addition to the numerical feature of examination records, significantly contributes to the risk prediction of MetS. Additionally, the proposed scheme, by using the proposed features, yields a superior performance to the state-of-the-art MetS prediction model, which provides the potential of effective prescreening the occurrence of MetS.

Artificial intelligence and diabetes technology: A review

Artificial intelligence (AI) is widely discussed in the popular literature and is portrayed as impacting many aspects of human life, both in and out of the workplace. The potential for revolutionizing healthcare is significant because of the availability of increasingly powerful computational platforms and methods, along with increasingly informative sources of patient data, both in and out of clinical settings. This review aims to provide a realistic assessment of the potential for AI in understanding and managing diabetes, accounting for the state of the art in the methodology and medical devices that collect data, process data, and act accordingly. Acknowledging that many conflicting definitions of AI have been put forth, this article attempts to characterize the main elements of the field as they relate to diabetes, identifying the main perspectives and methods that can (i) affect basic understanding of the disease, (ii) affect understanding of risk factors (genetic, clinical, and behavioral) of diabetes development, (iii) improve diagnosis, (iv) improve understanding of the arc of disease (progression and personal/societal impact), and finally (v) improve treatment.

Using Machine Learning Techniques to Predict Factors Contributing to the Incidence of Metabolic Syndrome in Tehran: Cohort Study

Background

Metabolic syndrome (MetS), a major contributor to cardiovascular disease and diabetes, is considered to be among the most common public health problems worldwide.

Objective

We aimed to identify and rank the most important nutritional and nonnutritional factors contributing to the development of MetS using a data-mining method.

Methods

This prospective study was performed on 3048 adults (aged ≥20 years) who participated in the fifth follow-up examination of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study, who were followed for 3 years. MetS was defined according to the modified definition of the National Cholesterol Education Program/Adult Treatment Panel III. The importance of variables was obtained by the training set using the random forest model for determining factors with the greatest contribution to developing MetS.

Results

Among the 3048 participants, 701 (22.9%) developed MetS during the study period. The mean age of the participants was 44.3 years (SD 11.8). The total incidence rate of MetS was 229.9 (95% CI 278.6-322.9) per 1000 person-years and the mean follow-up time was 40.5 months (SD 7.3). The incidence of MetS was significantly (P<.001) higher in men than in women (27% vs 20%). Those affected by MetS were older, married, had diabetes, with lower levels of education, and had a higher BMI (P<.001). The percentage of hospitalized patients was higher among those with MetS than among healthy people, although this difference was only statistically significant in women (P=.02). Based on the variable importance and multiple logistic regression analyses, the most important determinants of MetS were identified as history of diabetes (odds ratio [OR] 6.3, 95% CI 3.9-10.2, P<.001), BMI (OR 1.2, 95% CI 1.0-1.2, P<.001), age (OR 1.0, 95% CI 1.0-1.03, P<.001), female gender (OR 0.5, 95% CI 0.38-0.63, P<.001), and dietary monounsaturated fatty acid (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.94-0.99, P=.04).

Conclusions

Based on our findings, the incidence rate of MetS was significantly higher in men than in women in Tehran. The most important determinants of MetS were history of diabetes, high BMI, older age, male gender, and low dietary monounsaturated fatty acid intake.

Exploring and predicting mortality among patients with end-stage liver disease without cancer: a machine learning approach

OBJECTIVE

End-stage liver disease is a global public health problem with a high mortality rate. Early identification of people at risk of poor prognosis is fundamental for decision-making in clinical settings. This study created a machine learning prediction system that provides several related models with visualized graphs, including decision trees, ensemble learning and clustering, to predict mortality in patients with end-stage liver disease.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted: the training data were from patients enrolled from January 2009 to December 2010 and followed up to December 2014; validation data were from patients enrolled from January 2015 to December 2016 and followed up to January 2019. Hospitalized patients with noncancer-related chronic liver disease were identified from the hospital's electrical medical records.

RESULTS

In traditional multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard model, prothrombin time of international normalized ratio, which was significant with P value = 0.002, odds ratio = 2.790 and hazard ratio 1.363. Besides, blood urea nitrogen and C-reactive protein were also significant, with P value <0.001 and 0.026. The area under the curve was 0.771 in the receiver operating characteristic curve. In machine learning, blood urea nitrogen and age were regarded as the primary factors for predicting mortality. Creatinine, prothrombin time of international normalized ratio and bilirubin were also significant mortality predictors. The area under the curve of the random forest and AdaBoost was 0.838 and 0.792.

CONCLUSION

The machine learning techniques provided a comprehensive assessment of patient conditions; it could help physicians make an accurate diagnosis of chronic liver disease and improve healthcare management.

Machine Learning for Risk Group Identification and User Data Collection in a Herpes Simplex Virus Patient Registry: Algorithm Development and Validation Study

BACKGROUND

Researching people with herpes simplex virus (HSV) is challenging because of poor data quality, low user engagement, and concerns around stigma and anonymity.

OBJECTIVE

This project aimed to improve data collection for a real-world HSV registry by identifying predictors of HSV infection and selecting a limited number of relevant questions to ask new registry users to determine their level of HSV infection risk.

METHODS

The US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES, 2015-2016) database includes the confirmed HSV type 1 and type 2 (HSV-1 and HSV-2, respectively) status of American participants (14-49 years) and a wealth of demographic and health-related data. The questionnaires and data sets from this survey were used to form two data sets: one for HSV-1 and one for HSV-2. These data sets were used to train and test a model that used a random forest algorithm (devised using Python) to minimize the number of anonymous lifestyle-based questions needed to identify risk groups for HSV.

RESULTS

The model selected a reduced number of questions from the NHANES questionnaire that predicted HSV infection risk with high accuracy scores of 0.91 and 0.96 and high recall scores of 0.88 and 0.98 for the HSV-1 and HSV-2 data sets, respectively. The number of questions was reduced from 150 to an average of 40, depending on age and gender. The model, therefore, provided high predictability of risk of infection with minimal required input.

CONCLUSIONS

This machine learning algorithm can be used in a real-world evidence registry to collect relevant lifestyle data and identify individuals' levels of risk of HSV infection. A limitation is the absence of real user data and integration with electronic medical records, which would enable model learning and improvement. Future work will explore model adjustments, anonymization options, explicit permissions, and a standardized data schema that meet the General Data Protection Regulation, Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act, and third-party interface connectivity requirements.

Prediction of neonatal deaths in NICUs: development and validation of machine learning models

BACKGROUND

Prediction of neonatal deaths in NICUs is important for benchmarking and evaluating healthcare services in NICUs. Application of machine learning techniques can improve physicians' ability to predict the neonatal deaths. The aim of this study was to present a neonatal death risk prediction model using machine learning techniques.

METHODS

This study was conducted in Tehran, Iran in two phases. Initially, important risk factors in neonatal death were identified and then several machine learning models including Artificial Neural Network (ANN), decision tree (Random Forest (RF), C5.0 and CHART tree), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Bayesian Network and Ensemble models were developed. Finally, we prospectively applied these models to predict neonatal death in a NICU and followed up the neonates to compare the outcomes of these neonates with real outcomes.

RESULTS

17 factors were considered important in neonatal mortality prediction. The highest Area Under the Curve (AUC) was achieved for the SVM and Ensemble models with 0.98. The best precision and specificity were 0.98 and 0.94, respectively for the RF model. The highest accuracy, sensitivity and F-score were achieved for the SVM model with 0.94, 0.95 and 0.96, respectively. The best performance of models in prospective evaluation was for the ANN, C5.0 and CHAID tree models.

CONCLUSION

Using the developed machine learning models can help physicians predict the neonatal deaths in NICUs.

Identify the Characteristics of Metabolic Syndrome and Non-obese Phenotype: Data Visualization and a Machine Learning Approach

Introduction: A third of the world's population is classified as having Metabolic Syndrome (MetS). Traditional diagnostic criteria for MetS are based on three or more of five components. However, the outcomes of patients with different combinations of specific metabolic components are undefined. It is challenging to be discovered and introduce treatment in advance for intervention, since the related research is still insufficient.

Methods: This retrospective cohort study attempted to establish a method of visualizing metabolic components by using unsupervised machine learning and treemap technology to discover the relations between predicting factors and different metabolic components. Several supervised machine-learning models were used to explore significant predictors of MetS and to construct a powerful prediction model for preventive medicine.

Results: The random forest had the best performance with accuracy and c-statistic of 0.947 and 0.921, respectively, and found that body mass index, glycated hemoglobin, and controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) score were the optimal primary predictors of MetS. In treemap, high triglyceride level plus high fasting blood glucose or large waist circumference group had higher CAP scores (>260) than other groups. Moreover, 32.2% of patients with high CAP scores during 3 years of follow-up had metabolic diseases are observed. This reveals that the CAP score may be used for detecting MetS, especially for the non-obese MetS phenotype.

Conclusions: Machine learning and data visualization can illustrate the complicated relationships between metabolic components and potential risk factors for MetS.

Machine-Learning Monitoring System for Predicting Mortality Among Patients With Noncancer End-Stage Liver Disease: Retrospective Study

Background

Patients with end-stage liver disease (ESLD) have limited treatment options and have a deteriorated quality of life with an uncertain prognosis. Early identification of ESLD patients with a poor prognosis is valuable, especially for palliative care. However, it is difficult to predict ESLD patients that require either acute care or palliative care.

Objective

We sought to create a machine-learning monitoring system that can predict mortality or classify ESLD patients. Several machine-learning models with visualized graphs, decision trees, ensemble learning, and clustering were assessed.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted using electronic medical records of patients from Wan Fang Hospital and Taipei Medical University Hospital. A total of 1214 patients from Wan Fang Hospital were used to establish a dataset for training and 689 patients from Taipei Medical University Hospital were used as a validation set.

Results

The overall mortality rate of patients in the training set and validation set was 28.3% (257/907) and 22.6% (145/643), respectively. In traditional clinical scoring models, prothrombin time-international normalized ratio, which was significant in the Cox regression (P<.001, hazard ratio 1.288), had a prominent influence on predicting mortality, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve reached approximately 0.75. In supervised machine-learning models, the concordance statistic of ROC curves reached 0.852 for the random forest model and reached 0.833 for the adaptive boosting model. Blood urea nitrogen, bilirubin, and sodium were regarded as critical factors for predicting mortality. Creatinine, hemoglobin, and albumin were also significant mortality predictors. In unsupervised learning models, hierarchical clustering analysis could accurately group acute death patients and palliative care patients into different clusters from patients in the survival group.

Conclusions

Medical artificial intelligence has become a cutting-edge tool in clinical medicine, as it has been found to have predictive ability in several diseases. The machine-learning monitoring system developed in this study involves multifaceted analyses, which include various aspects for evaluation and diagnosis. This strength makes the clinical results more objective and reliable. Moreover, the visualized interface in this system offers more intelligible outcomes. Therefore, this machine-learning monitoring system provides a comprehensive approach for assessing patient condition, and may help to classify acute death patients and palliative care patients. Upon further validation and improvement, the system may be used to help physicians in the management of ESLD patients.

Development of an Online Health Care Assessment for Preventive Medicine: A Machine Learning Approach

BACKGROUND

In the era of information explosion, the use of the internet to assist with clinical practice and diagnosis has become a cutting-edge area of research. The application of medical informatics allows patients to be aware of their clinical conditions, which may contribute toward the prevention of several chronic diseases and disorders.

OBJECTIVE

In this study, we applied machine learning techniques to construct a medical database system from electronic medical records (EMRs) of subjects who have undergone health examination. This system aims to provide online self-health evaluation to clinicians and patients worldwide, enabling personalized health and preventive health.

METHODS

We built a medical database system based on the literature, and data preprocessing and cleaning were performed for the database. We utilized both supervised and unsupervised machine learning technology to analyze the EMR data to establish prediction models. The models with EMR databases were then applied to the internet platform.

RESULTS

The validation data were used to validate the online diagnosis prediction system. The accuracy of the prediction model for metabolic syndrome reached 91%, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.904 in this system. For chronic kidney disease, the prediction accuracy of the model reached 94.7%, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.982. In addition, the system also provided disease diagnosis visualization via clustering, allowing users to check their outcome compared with those in the medical database, enabling increased awareness for a healthier lifestyle.

CONCLUSIONS

Our web-based health care machine learning system allowed users to access online diagnosis predictions and provided a health examination report. Users could understand and review their health status accordingly. In the future, we aim to connect hospitals worldwide with our platform, so that health care practitioners can make diagnoses or provide patient education to remote patients. This platform can increase the value of preventive medicine and telemedicine.