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Morris R, Wang S. Building a pathway to One Health surveillance and response in Asian countries. SCIENCE IN ONE HEALTH 2024; 3:100067. [PMID: 39077383 PMCID: PMC11262298 DOI: 10.1016/j.soh.2024.100067] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/02/2023] [Accepted: 03/27/2024] [Indexed: 07/31/2024]
Abstract
To detect and respond to emerging diseases more effectively, an integrated surveillance strategy needs to be applied to both human and animal health. Current programs in Asian countries operate separately for the two sectors and are principally concerned with detection of events that represent a short-term disease threat. It is not realistic to either invest only in efforts to detect emerging diseases, or to rely solely on event-based surveillance. A comprehensive strategy is needed, concurrently investigating and managing endemic zoonoses, studying evolving diseases which change their character and importance due to influences such as demographic and climatic change, and enhancing understanding of factors which are likely to influence the emergence of new pathogens. This requires utilisation of additional investigation tools that have become available in recent years but are not yet being used to full effect. As yet there is no fully formed blueprint that can be applied in Asian countries. Hence a three-step pathway is proposed to move towards the goal of comprehensive One Health disease surveillance and response.
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Affiliation(s)
- Roger Morris
- Massey University EpiCentre and EpiSoft International Ltd, 76/100 Titoki Street, Masterton 5810, New Zealand
| | - Shiyong Wang
- Health, Nutrition and Population, World Bank Group, Washington, DC, USA
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Tsang TK, Huang X, Guo Y, Lau EHY, Cowling BJ, Ip DKM. Monitoring School Absenteeism for Influenza-Like Illness Surveillance: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. JMIR Public Health Surveill 2023. [DOI: 10.2196/41329] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/15/2023] Open
Abstract
Background
Influenza causes considerable disease burden each year, particularly in children. Monitoring school absenteeism has long been proposed as a surveillance tool of influenza activity in the community, but the practice of school absenteeism could be varying, and the potential of such usage remains unclear.
Objective
The aim of this paper is to determine the potential of monitoring school absenteeism as a surveillance tool of influenza.
Methods
We conducted a systematic review of the published literature on the relationship between school absenteeism and influenza activity in the community. We categorized the types of school absenteeism and influenza activity in the community to determine the correlation between these data streams. We also extracted this correlation with different lags in community surveillance to determine the potential of using school absenteeism as a leading indicator of influenza activity.
Results
Among the 35 identified studies, 22 (63%), 12 (34%), and 8 (23%) studies monitored all-cause, illness-specific, and influenza-like illness (ILI)–specific absents, respectively, and 16 (46%) used quantitative approaches and provided 33 estimates on the temporal correlation between school absenteeism and influenza activity in the community. The pooled estimate of correlation between school absenteeism and community surveillance without lag, with 1-week lag, and with 2-week lag were 0.44 (95% CI 0.34, 0.53), 0.29 (95% CI 0.15, 0.42), and 0.21 (95% CI 0.11, 0.31), respectively. The correlation between influenza activity in the community and ILI-specific absenteeism was higher than that between influenza activity in community all-cause absenteeism. Among the 19 studies that used qualitative approaches, 15 (79%) concluded that school absenteeism was in concordance with, coincided with, or was associated with community surveillance. Of the 35 identified studies, only 6 (17%) attempted to predict influenza activity in the community from school absenteeism surveillance.
Conclusions
There was a moderate correlation between school absenteeism and influenza activity in the community. The smaller correlation between school absenteeism and community surveillance with lag, compared to without lag, suggested that careful application was required to use school absenteeism as a leading indicator of influenza epidemics. ILI-specific absenteeism could monitor influenza activity more closely, but the required resource or school participation willingness may require careful consideration to weight against the associated costs. Further development is required to use and optimize the use of school absenteeism to predict influenza activity. In particular, the potential of using more advanced statistical models and validation of the predictions should be explored.
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Jing F, Li Z, Qiao S, Zhang J, Olatosi B, Li X. Using geospatial social media data for infectious disease studies: a systematic review. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DIGITAL EARTH 2023; 16:130-157. [PMID: 37997607 PMCID: PMC10664840 DOI: 10.1080/17538947.2022.2161652] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/04/2022] [Accepted: 12/17/2022] [Indexed: 11/25/2023]
Abstract
Geospatial social media (GSM) data has been increasingly used in public health due to its rich, timely, and accessible spatial information, particularly in infectious disease research. This review synthesized 86 research articles that use GSM data in infectious diseases published between December 2013 and March 2022. These articles cover 12 infectious disease types ranging from respiratory infectious diseases to sexually transmitted diseases with spatial levels varying from the neighborhood, county, state, and country. We categorized these studies into three major infectious disease research domains: surveillance, explanation, and prediction. With the assistance of advanced statistical and spatial methods, GSM data has been widely and deeply applied to these domains, particularly in surveillance and explanation domains. We further identified four knowledge gaps in terms of contextual information use, application scopes, spatiotemporal dimension, and data limitations and proposed innovation opportunities for future research. Our findings will contribute to a better understanding of using GSM data in infectious diseases studies and provide insights into strategies for using GSM data more effectively in future research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fengrui Jing
- Geoinformation and Big Data Research Laboratory, Department of Geography, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USA
- Big Data Health Science Center, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USA
| | - Zhenlong Li
- Geoinformation and Big Data Research Laboratory, Department of Geography, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USA
- Big Data Health Science Center, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USA
| | - Shan Qiao
- Big Data Health Science Center, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USA
- Department of Health Promotion, Education, and Behavior, Arnold School of Public Health, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USA
| | - Jiajia Zhang
- Big Data Health Science Center, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USA
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Arnold School of Public Health, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USA
| | - Banky Olatosi
- Big Data Health Science Center, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USA
- Department of Health Services Policy and Management, Arnold School of Public Health, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USA
| | - Xiaoming Li
- Big Data Health Science Center, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USA
- Department of Health Promotion, Education, and Behavior, Arnold School of Public Health, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USA
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Gupta AK, Grannis SJ, Kasthurirathne SN. Evaluation of a Parsimonious COVID-19 Outbreak Prediction Model: Heuristic Modeling Approach Using Publicly Available Data Sets. J Med Internet Res 2021; 23:e28812. [PMID: 34156964 PMCID: PMC8315156 DOI: 10.2196/28812] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/23/2021] [Revised: 06/02/2021] [Accepted: 06/12/2021] [Indexed: 01/23/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The COVID-19 pandemic has changed public health policies and human and community behaviors through lockdowns and mandates. Governments are rapidly evolving policies to increase hospital capacity and supply personal protective equipment and other equipment to mitigate disease spread in affected regions. Current models that predict COVID-19 case counts and spread are complex by nature and offer limited explainability and generalizability. This has highlighted the need for accurate and robust outbreak prediction models that balance model parsimony and performance. OBJECTIVE We sought to leverage readily accessible data sets extracted from multiple states to train and evaluate a parsimonious predictive model capable of identifying county-level risk of COVID-19 outbreaks on a day-to-day basis. METHODS Our modeling approach leveraged the following data inputs: COVID-19 case counts per county per day and county populations. We developed an outbreak gold standard across California, Indiana, and Iowa. The model utilized a per capita running 7-day sum of the case counts per county per day and the mean cumulative case count to develop baseline values. The model was trained with data recorded between March 1 and August 31, 2020, and tested on data recorded between September 1 and October 31, 2020. RESULTS The model reported sensitivities of 81%, 92%, and 90% for California, Indiana, and Iowa, respectively. The precision in each state was above 85% while specificity and accuracy scores were generally >95%. CONCLUSIONS Our parsimonious model provides a generalizable and simple alternative approach to outbreak prediction. This methodology can be applied to diverse regions to help state officials and hospitals with resource allocation and to guide risk management, community education, and mitigation strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Agrayan K Gupta
- Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, United States.,Center for Biomedical Informatics, Regenstrief Institute, Indianapolis, IN, United States
| | - Shaun J Grannis
- Center for Biomedical Informatics, Regenstrief Institute, Indianapolis, IN, United States.,School of Medicine, Indiana University, Indianapolis, IN, United States
| | - Suranga N Kasthurirathne
- Center for Biomedical Informatics, Regenstrief Institute, Indianapolis, IN, United States.,School of Medicine, Indiana University, Indianapolis, IN, United States
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