Fluctuation of Public Interest in COVID-19 in the United States: Retrospective Analysis of Google Trends Search Data

K. Sensitivity analysis of bi-metal stacked-gate-oxide hetero-juncture tunnel fet with Si0.6Ge0.4 source biosensor considering non-ideal factors

This article provides insights in designing a dielectrically modulated biosensor by adopting high-k stacked gate oxide proposition in a bi-metal hetero-juncture Tunnel Field Effect Transistor (BM-SO-HTFET) with Si0.6Ge0.4 source. The integrated effect of heterojunction and stacked gate oxide leads to enhanced electrical performance of the proposed device in terms of carrier mobility and suppressed leakage current. Nano-cavity engraved beneath the bi-metal gate structure across the source/channel end acts the binding site of the biomolecules to be detected. This Configuration leads to improved control of biomolecules over source/channel tunnelling rate and the same is reflected in the sensing ability of the device while extracting the ON current sensitivity (SON) of the sensor. The reported biosensor is simulated using Silvaco ATLAS calibrated simulation framework. The analysis of the device sensitivity is carried out varying dielectric constants (k) of various biomolecules, both neutral as well as charged. Our study reveals that BM-SO-HTFET with Ge mole fraction composition x = 0.4 exhibits sensitivity as high as 4.1 × 1010 for neutral biomolecules and 3.2 × 1011 for positively charged biomolecules with k = 12. Furthermore, a transient response profile for the drain current with various biomolecules is explored to determine the varying settling time. From the simulation results, it is noted that BM-SO-HTFET exhibits ON current sensitivity of 4.1 × 1010 and 3.2 × 1011 for neutral and charged biomolecules respectively. In addition to this, for highly sensitive and real time detection of biomolecules, the impact of temperature and certain non-ideal factors drifting from ideal case of fully filled cavity have also been considered to analyze its optimum sensing performance.

Monitoring SARS-CoV-2 Using Infoveillance, National Reporting Data, and Wastewater in Wales, United Kingdom: Mixed Methods Study

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic necessitated rapid real-time surveillance of epidemiological data to advise governments and the public, but the accuracy of these data depends on myriad auxiliary assumptions, not least accurate reporting of cases by the public. Wastewater monitoring has emerged internationally as an accurate and objective means for assessing disease prevalence with reduced latency and less dependence on public vigilance, reliability, and engagement. How public interest aligns with COVID-19 personal testing data and wastewater monitoring is, however, very poorly characterized.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to assess the associations between internet search volume data relevant to COVID-19, public health care statistics, and national-scale wastewater monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 across South Wales, United Kingdom, over time to investigate how interest in the pandemic may reflect the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, as detected by national testing and wastewater monitoring, and how these data could be used to predict case numbers.

METHODS

Relative search volume data from Google Trends for search terms linked to the COVID-19 pandemic were extracted and compared against government-reported COVID-19 statistics and quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) SARS-CoV-2 data generated from wastewater in South Wales, United Kingdom, using multivariate linear models, correlation analysis, and predictions from linear models.

RESULTS

Wastewater monitoring, most infoveillance terms, and nationally reported cases significantly correlated, but these relationships changed over time. Wastewater surveillance data and some infoveillance search terms generated predictions of case numbers that correlated with reported case numbers, but the accuracy of these predictions was inconsistent and many of the relationships changed over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Wastewater monitoring presents a valuable means for assessing population-level prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and could be integrated with other data types such as infoveillance for increasingly accurate inference of virus prevalence. The importance of such monitoring is increasingly clear as a means of objectively assessing the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 to circumvent the dynamic interest and participation of the public. Increased accessibility of wastewater monitoring data to the public, as is the case for other national data, may enhance public engagement with these forms of monitoring.

Maximum generable interest: A universal standard for Google Trends search queries

The coronavirus or COVID-19 pandemic represents a health event with far-reaching global consequences, triggering a strong search interest in related topics on the Internet worldwide. The use of search engine data has become commonplace in research, but a universal standard for comparing different works is desirable to simplify the comparison. The coronavirus pandemic's enormous impact and media coverage have triggered an exceptionally high search interest. Consequently, the maximum generable interest (MGI) on coronavirus is proposed as a universal reference for objectifying and comparing relative search interest in the future. This search interest can be explored with search engine data such as Google Trends data. Additional standards for medium and low search volumes can also be used to reflect the search interest of topics at different levels. Size standards, such as reference to MGI, may help make research more comparable and better evaluate relative search volumes. This study presents a framework for this purpose using the example of stroke.

Google Trends as a predictive tool in the era of COVID-19: a scoping review

Google Trends has been extensively used in different sectors from finance to tourism, the economy, fashion, the fun industry, the oil trade, and healthcare. This scoping review aims to summarize the role of Google Trends as a monitoring and a predicting tool in the COVID-19 pandemic. Inclusion criteria for this scoping review were original English-language peer-reviewed research articles on the COVID-19 pandemic conducted in 2020 using Google Trends as a search tool. Articles that were in a language other than English, were only in abstract form, or did not discuss the role of Google Trends during the COVID-19 pandemic were excluded. According to these criteria, a total of 81 studies were included to cover the period of the first year after the emergence of the crisis. Google Trends can potentially help health authorities to plan and control pandemics earlier and to decrease the risk of infection among people.

Web-based surveillance of respiratory infection outbreaks: retrospective analysis of Italian COVID-19 epidemic waves using Google Trends

Introduction

Large-scale diagnostic testing has been proven insufficient to promptly monitor the spread of the Coronavirus disease 2019. Electronic resources may provide better insight into the early detection of epidemics. We aimed to retrospectively explore whether the Google search volume has been useful in detecting Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus outbreaks early compared to the swab-based surveillance system.

Methods

The Google Trends website was used by applying the research to three Italian regions (Lombardy, Marche, and Sicily), covering 16 million Italian citizens. An autoregressive-moving-average model was fitted, and residual charts were plotted to detect outliers in weekly searches of five keywords. Signals that occurred during periods labelled as free from epidemics were used to measure Positive Predictive Values and False Negative Rates in anticipating the epidemic wave occurrence.

Results

Signals from "fever," "cough," and "sore throat" showed better performance than those from "loss of smell" and "loss of taste." More than 80% of true epidemic waves were detected early by the occurrence of at least an outlier signal in Lombardy, although this implies a 20% false alarm signals. Performance was poorer for Sicily and Marche.

Conclusion

Monitoring the volume of Google searches can be a valuable tool for early detection of respiratory infectious disease outbreaks, particularly in areas with high access to home internet. The inclusion of web-based syndromic keywords is promising as it could facilitate the containment of COVID-19 and perhaps other unknown infectious diseases in the future.

Research and Public Interest in Mindfulness in the COVID-19 and Post-COVID-19 Era: A Bibliometric and Google Trends Analysis

Public and research interest in mindfulness has been growing, and the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic seems to have accelerated this growth. This study was conducted to investigate the public and research interest in mindfulness in the context of COVID-19. The term 'Mindfulness' was searched in Google Trends, and data were collected from December 2004 to November 2022. The relationship between the relative search volume (RSV) of 'Mindfulness' and that of related topics was analyzed, and 'Top related topics and queries' for the search term 'Mindfulness' were investigated. For bibliometric analysis, a search was conducted in the Web of Science database. Keyword co-occurrence analysis was conducted, and a two-dimensional keyword map was constructed using VOSviewer software. Overall, the RSV of 'Mindfulness' increased slightly. The RSVs of 'Mindfulness' and 'Antidepressants' showed an overall significant positive correlation (r = 0.485) but a statistically significant negative correlation during the COVID-19 era (-0.470). Articles on mindfulness in the context of COVID-19 were closely related to depression, anxiety, stress, and mental health. Four clusters of articles were identified, including 'mindfulness', 'COVID-19', 'anxiety and depression', and 'mental health'. These findings may provide insights into potential areas of interest and identify ongoing trends in this field.

A Cross-National Study of Fear Appeal Messages in YouTube Trending Videos About COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has underlined the need for investigating the prevalence and nature of health communication on social media. Applying the Extended Parallel Process Model, this study analyzes the use of fear appeals in 2,152 YouTube trending videos across six countries (the United States, Brazil, Russia, Taiwan, Canada, and New Zealand) from January to May 2020. The findings reveal that, during the early stage of the outbreak, COVID-19-themed videos gained early attention in Taiwan but encountered a prolonged delay in the United States and Brazil. Specifically, COVID-19 videos featured the least in Brazil’s trending list. The results from a supervised machine learning coding approach further suggest that videos’ threat levels exceeded efficacy beliefs across all countries. This imbalance of threat–efficacy messages was most significant in hard-hit countries Brazil and Russia, which social media may run the risk of feeding fear to the public agenda. These findings alert content creators and social media platforms to create a threat–efficacy equilibrium, prioritizing content that promotes a sense of self- and community efficacy and increases people’s belief that effective protective actions are available.

Heightened religiosity proactively and reactively responds to the COVID-19 pandemic across the globe: Novel insights from the parasite-stress theory of sociality and the behavioral immune system theory

According to the parasite-stress theory of sociality and the behavioral immune system theory, heightened religiosity serves an anti-pathogen function by promoting in-group assortative sociality. Thus, highly religious countries/territories could have better control of the COVID-19 (proactively avoids disease-threat), and heightened COVID-19 threat could increase religiosity (reactively responds to disease-threat). As expected, country-level religiosity (religion-related online searches (Allah, Buddhism, Jesus, etc.) and number of total religions/ethnoreligions) negatively and significantly predicted COVID-19 severity (a composite index of COVID-19 susceptibility, reproductive rate, morbidity, and mortality rates) (Study 1a), after accounting for covariates (e.g., socioeconomic factors, ecological factors, collectivism index, cultural tightness-looseness index, COVID-19 policy response, test-to-case ratio). Moreover, multilevel analysis accounting for daily- (e.g., time-trend effect, season) and macro-level (same as in Study 1a) covariates showed that country-level religious searches, compared with the number of total religions/ethnoreligions, were more robust in negatively and significantly predicting daily-level COVID-19 severity during early pandemic stages (Study 1b). At weekly level, perceived coronavirus threat measured with coronavirus-related searches (corona, covid, covid-19, etc.), compared with actual COVID-19 threat measured with epidemiological data, showed larger effects in positively predicting religious searches (Study 2), after accounting for weekly- (e.g., autocorrelation, time-trend effect, season, religious holidays, major-illness-related searches) and macro-level (e.g., Christian-majority country/territory and all country-level variables in Study 1) covariates. Accordingly, heightened religiosity could proactively and reactively respond to the COVID-19 pandemic across the globe.

Geographic social inequalities in information-seeking response to the COVID-19 pandemic in China: longitudinal analysis of Baidu Index

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic alarmed the public and initiated the uptake of preventive measures. However, the manner in which the public responded to these announcements, and whether individuals from different provinces responded similarly during the COVID-19 pandemic in China, remains largely unknown. We used an interrupted time-series analysis to examine the change in Baidu Search Index of selected COVID-19 related terms associated with the COVID-19 derived exposure variables. We analyzed the daily search index in Mainland China using segmented log-normal regressions with data from Jan 2017 to Mar 2021. In this longitudinal study of nearly one billion internet users, we found synchronous increases in COVID-19 related searches during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent local outbreaks, irrespective of the location and severity of each outbreak. The most precipitous increase occurred in the week when most provinces activated their highest level of response to public health emergencies. Search interests increased more as Human Development Index (HDI) -an area level measure of socioeconomic status—increased. Searches on the index began to decline nationwide after the initiation of mass-scale lockdowns, but statistically significant increases continued to occur in conjunction with the report of major sporadic local outbreaks. The intense interest in COVID-19 related information at virtually the same time across different provinces indicates that the Chinese government utilizes multiple channels to keep the public informed of the pandemic. Regional socioeconomic status influenced search patterns.

Spatiotemporal disparities in regional public risk perception of COVID-19 using Bayesian Spatiotemporally Varying Coefficients (STVC) series models across Chinese cities

Regional public attention has been critical during the COVID-19 pandemic, impacting the effectiveness of sub-national non-pharmaceutical interventions. While studies have focused on public attention at the national level, sub-national public attention has not been well investigated. Understanding sub-national public attention can aid local governments in designing regional scientific guidelines, especially in large countries with substantial spatiotemporal disparities in the spread of infections. Here, we evaluated the online public attention to the COVID-19 pandemic using internet search data and developed a regional public risk perception index (PRPI) that depicts heterogeneous associations between local pandemic risk and public attention across 366 Chinese cities. We used the Bayesian Spatiotemporally Varying Coefficients (STVC) model, a full-map local regression for estimating spatiotemporal heterogeneous relationships of variables, and improved it to the Bayesian Spatiotemporally Interacting Varying Coefficients (STIVC) model to incorporate space-time interaction non-stationarity at spatial or temporal stratified scales. COVID-19 daily cases (median contribution 82.6%) was the most critical factor affecting public attention, followed by urban socioeconomic conditions (16.7%) and daily population mobility (0.7%). After adjusting national and provincial impacts, city-level influence factors accounted for 89.4% and 58.6% in spatiotemporal variations of public attention. Spatiotemporal disparities were substantial among cities and provinces, suggesting that observing national-level public dynamics alone was insufficient. Multi-period PRPI maps revealed clusters and outlier cities with potential public panic and low health literacy. Bayesian STVC series models are systematically proposed and provide a multi-level spatiotemporal heterogeneous analytical framework for understanding collective human responses to major public health emergencies and disasters.

Language Barriers to Online Search Interest for COVID-19: A Global Infodemiological Study

Background

Implementation of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic control measures requires the engagement and participation of the public in a synchronized manner. Language may be a barrier to captivating public interest in a concerted manner. The relative volume of English and non-English COVID-19-related web searches estimate public interest among English and Non-English “searchers,” respectively. Asynchrony between English and non-English search interest may suggest language-related lapses in public engagement. Addressing these lapses may improve public health communications. In this study, we aimed to describe the distribution and temporal trends in the evolution of English and non-English online search interest for COVID-19 and to identify lags between English and non-English search interest.

Methodology

Search interest data (Baidu Index for China, Google Trends for other countries) was queried for the keywords “coronavirus,” “covid 19,” and their non-English equivalents between January 1, 2019, and September 30, 2020, for each country (n = 230). Daily total, English, and non-English search interest were recorded. Search Interest variables were described at global, regional, and country levels. The cross-correlation function was used to identify lags between English and non-English search interest at global, regional, and country levels.

Results

Globally, 9.69% of total searches relating to COVID-19 utilized non-English keywords. Among included regions, 64.7% (11/17) had significant non-English interest. Central Asia had the highest proportion of non-English interest (81.13% of total interest), followed by Eastern Europe (56.17%), Eastern Asia, Western Asia, and Northern Africa (all over 20%). Among included countries, 33.5% (77/230) had significant non-English interest. Cross-correlation function identified significant lags between English and non-English Interest in six regions (median lag [interquartile range, IQR]: -0.5 [6.00] days) and 24 countries (median lag [IQR]: -1 [4.25] days).

Conclusions

Non-English keywords contribute substantially to searches relating to COVID-19 in certain countries and regions. Numerous locations exhibit significant lags between English and non-English search interest, suggesting language-related discrepancies in the interest for COVID-19. Further research is required to address the root cause of these lags.

Public Interest, Risk, Trust, and Personal Protective Equipment Purchase and Usage: Face Masks Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic

This analysis considers public interest in COVID-19-related issues as well as individuals’ risk perception and trust in society in their demand for face masks during the pandemic. Through a national survey, we examine demand during both the outbreak and the recovery stage of the pandemic and differentiate demand into purchasing and usage. The examination allows us to observe the evolvement of demand over time and stockpiling. We find that public interest and risk perception had a more significant association with mask demand during the outbreak stage, and trust was more connected with mask demand during the recovery stage. While stocking was evident in both stages, consumers were much less price sensitive in the outbreak stage. Overall, the relationship between most factors and mask demand was smaller in the recovery stage. Our research is useful for policymakers to assess the creation and termination of temporary legislation to help manage the value chain of personal protective equipment during a major public health crisis.

Malaysian Public Interest in Common Medical Problems: A 10-Year Google Trends Analysis

Background

An analysis of internet search has been performed to evaluate the public interest in health problems. Google Trends (GT) serves as a free platform to analyse the search traffic for specific terms in the Google search engine. This observational study aims to investigate the trend of Malaysian population in using the Google search engine on common medical problems and explore the geographical influence on the language used.

Material and method

Fifteen pairs of keywords, in Malay and English language, were chosen after going through forward and backward translation and vetting by a panel of experts. GT data for the selected keywords from 1st of January 2011 to 31st of December 2020 was extracted. Trend analysis was performed using paired t-test between the first half of the decade and the second half of the decade. The different languages used were analysed based on geographical variation using paired t-test.

Results

The public interest on those keywords was markedly increased in the second half of the decade with 29 out of 30 keywords showing statistically significant difference. Majority of the states preferred to use Malay keywords, especially those residing at the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia.

Conclusion

This observational study illustrates the ability of GT to track healthcare interest among Malaysian population. GT provides a good platform to analyse specific healthcare interest in Malaysian population, but investigators have to bear in mind the geographical influence on the language used.

Analyzing opioid-use disorder websites in the United States: An optimized website usability study

Background

As the United States continues to tackle the opioid epidemic, it is imperative for digital healthcare organizations to provide Internet users with accurate and accessible online resources so that they can make informed decisions with regards to their health.

Objective

The primary objectives were to adapt and modify a previously established usability methodology from literature, apply this modified methodology in order to perform usability analysis of opioid-use-disorder (OUD)-related websites, and make important recommendations that OUD-related digital health organizations may utilize to improve their online presence.

Methods

A list of 208 websites (later refined) was generated for usability testing using a modified Google Search methodology. Four keywords were chosen and used in the search: “DEA-X Waiver Training”, “opioid-use-disorder (OUD) Initiatives”, “Buprenorphine Assisted Treatment”, and “Opioid-Use Disorder Websites”. Usability analysis was performed concurrently with optimization of the methodology. OUD websites were analyzed and scored on several usability categories established by previous literature.

Results

“DEA-X Waiver Training” yielded websites that scored the highest average in “Accessibility” (0.84), while “Opioid-Use Disorder Websites” yielded websites that scored the highest average in “Content Quality” (0.67). “Buprenorphine Assisted Treatment” yielded websites that scored the highest average across “Marketing” (0.52), “Technology” (0.89), “General Usability” (0.69), and “Overall Usability” (0.68). “Technology” and “Marketing” were the highest and lowest scoring usability categories, respectively. T-test analysis revealed that each usability, except “Marketing” had a pair of one or more keywords that were significantly different with a p-value that was equal to or less than 0.05.

Conclusions

Based on the study findings, we recommend that digital organizations in the OUD space should improve their “General Usability” score by making their websites easier to find online. Doing so, may allow users, especially individuals in the OUD space, to discover accurate information that they are seeking. Based on the study findings, we also made important recommendations that OUD-related digital organizations may utilize in order to improve website usability as well as overall reach.

Predicting New Daily COVID-19 Cases and Deaths Utilizing Search Engine Query Data in South Korea from 2020 to 2021: Infodemiology Study

Background

Given the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic situation, accurate predictions could greatly help in the health resource management for future waves. However, as a new entity, COVID-19’s disease dynamics seemed difficult to predict. External factors, such as internet search data, need to be included in the models to increase their accuracy. However, it remains unclear whether incorporating online search volumes into models leads to better predictive performances for long-term prediction.

Objective

The aim of this study was to analyze whether search engine query data are important variables that should be included in the models predicting new daily COVID-19 cases and deaths in short- and long-term periods.

Methods

We used country-level case-related data, NAVER search volumes, and mobility data obtained from Google and Apple for the period of January 20, 2020, to July 31, 2021, in South Korea. Data were aggregated into four subsets: 3, 6, 12, and 18 months after the first case was reported. The first 80% of the data in all subsets were used as the training set, and the remaining data served as the test set. Generalized linear models (GLMs) with normal, Poisson, and negative binomial distribution were developed, along with linear regression (LR) models with lasso, adaptive lasso, and elastic net regularization. Root mean square error values were defined as a loss function and were used to assess the performance of the models. All analyses and visualizations were conducted in SAS Studio, which is part of the SAS OnDemand for Academics.

Results

GLMs with different types of distribution functions may have been beneficial in predicting new daily COVID-19 cases and deaths in the early stages of the outbreak. Over longer periods, as the distribution of cases and deaths became more normally distributed, LR models with regularization may have outperformed the GLMs. This study also found that models performed better when predicting new daily deaths compared to new daily cases. In addition, an evaluation of feature effects in the models showed that NAVER search volumes were useful variables in predicting new daily COVID-19 cases, particularly in the first 6 months of the outbreak. Searches related to logistical needs, particularly for “thermometer” and “mask strap,” showed higher feature effects in that period. For longer prediction periods, NAVER search volumes were still found to constitute an important variable, although with a lower feature effect. This finding suggests that search term use should be considered to maintain the predictive performance of models.

Conclusions

NAVER search volumes were important variables in short- and long-term prediction, with higher feature effects for predicting new daily COVID-19 cases in the first 6 months of the outbreak. Similar results were also found for death predictions.

Understanding Health Communication Through Google Trends and News Coverage for COVID-19: A Multinational Study in Eight Countries

Background

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, health information related to COVID-19 has spread across news media worldwide. Google is among the most used internet search engines, and the Google Trends tool can reflect how the public seeks COVID-19–related health information during the pandemic.

Objective

The aim of this study was to understand health communication through Google Trends and news coverage and to explore their relationship with prevention and control of COVID-19 at the early epidemic stage.

Methods

To achieve the study objectives, we analyzed the public’s information-seeking behaviors on Google and news media coverage on COVID-19. We collected data on COVID-19 news coverage and Google search queries from eight countries (ie, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Singapore, Ireland, Australia, South Africa, and New Zealand) between January 1 and April 29, 2020. We depicted the characteristics of the COVID-19 news coverage trends over time, as well as the search query trends for the topics of COVID-19–related “diseases,” “treatments and medical resources,” “symptoms and signs,” and “public measures.” The search query trends provided the relative search volume (RSV) as an indicator to represent the popularity of a specific search term in a specific geographic area over time. Also, time-lag correlation analysis was used to further explore the relationship between search terms trends and the number of new daily cases, as well as the relationship between search terms trends and news coverage.

Results

Across all search trends in eight countries, almost all search peaks appeared between March and April 2020, and declined in April 2020. Regarding COVID-19–related “diseases,” in most countries, the RSV of the term “coronavirus” increased earlier than that of “covid-19”; however, around April 2020, the search volume of the term “covid-19” surpassed that of “coronavirus.” Regarding the topic “treatments and medical resources,” the most and least searched terms were “mask” and “ventilator,” respectively. Regarding the topic “symptoms and signs,” “fever” and “cough” were the most searched terms. The RSV for the term “lockdown” was significantly higher than that for “social distancing” under the topic “public health measures.” In addition, when combining search trends with news coverage, there were three main patterns: (1) the pattern for Singapore, (2) the pattern for the United States, and (3) the pattern for the other countries. In the time-lag correlation analysis between the RSV for the topic “treatments and medical resources” and the number of new daily cases, the RSV for all countries except Singapore was positively correlated with new daily cases, with a maximum correlation of 0.8 for the United States. In addition, in the time-lag correlation analysis between the overall RSV for the topic “diseases” and the number of daily news items, the overall RSV was positively correlated with the number of daily news items, the maximum correlation coefficient was more than 0.8, and the search behavior occurred 0 to 17 days earlier than the news coverage.

Conclusions

Our findings revealed public interest in masks, disease control, and public measures, and revealed the potential value of Google Trends in the face of the emergence of new infectious diseases. Also, Google Trends combined with news media can achieve more efficient health communication. Therefore, both news media and Google Trends can contribute to the early prevention and control of epidemics.

The role of ingroup assortative sociality in the COVID-19 pandemic: A multilevel analysis of google trends data in the United States

This study tested how family ties and religiosity, two extended elements of ingroup assortative sociality, would predict group-level COVID-19 severity in the U.S. and how COVID-19 threat would predict ingroup assortative sociality at a weekly level. Multilevel models which analyzed the state-level archival (e.g., religious participation) and Google trends data (e.g., marriage for family ties; prayer for religiosity) on ingroup assortative sociality showed that religious search volume (from 2004 to 2019) significantly and negatively predicted COVID-19 severity (i.e., shorter time delay of first documented cases, shorter overall doubling times, higher reproductive ratio and higher case fatality ratio) across states (Study 1a) and counties (Study 1b) while search volume for family ties only significantly and negatively predicted county-level COVID-19 severity. Multilevel analyses also found that weekly COVID-19 severity weakly predicted weekly search volume of marriage and religion (Study 2a), but when COVID-19 threat was in the collective consciousness in a given week (i.e., Google search volume for coronavirus within 52 weeks), collective levels of ingroup assortative sociality increased from the previous week (Study 2b). Evidence across studies suggested that religiosity, compared with family ties, could serve a more important role for the U.S. people during the deadly pandemic.

Suitability of Google Trends™ for Digital Surveillance During Ongoing COVID-19 Epidemic: A Case Study from India

OBJECTIVE

Digital surveillance has shown mixed results as a supplement to traditional surveillance. Google Trends™ (GT) (Google, Mountain View, CA, United States) has been used for digital surveillance of H1N1, Ebola and MERS. We used GT to correlate the information seeking on COVID-19 with number of tests and cases in India.

METHODS

Data was obtained on daily tests and cases from WHO, ECDC and covid19india.org. We used a comprehensive search strategy to retrieve GT data on COVID-19 related information-seeking behavior in India between January 1 and May 31, 2020 in the form of relative search volume (RSV). We also used time-lag correlation analysis to assess the temporal relationships between RSV and daily new COVID-19 cases and tests.

RESULTS

GT RSV showed high time-lag correlation with both daily reported tests and cases for the terms "COVID 19," "COVID," "social distancing," "soap," and "lockdown" at the national level. In 5 high-burden states, high correlation was observed for these 5 terms along with "Corona." Peaks in RSV, both at the national level and in high-burden states corresponded with media coverage or government declarations on the ongoing pandemic.

CONCLUSION

The correlation observed between GT data and COVID-19 tests/cases in India may be either due to media-coverage-induced curiosity, or health-seeking curiosity.

Need of care in interpreting Google Trends-based COVID-19 infodemiological study results: potential risk of false-positivity

BACKGROUND

Google Trends (GT) is being used as an epidemiological tool to study coronavirus disease (COVID-19) by identifying keywords in search trends that are predictive for the COVID-19 epidemiological burden. However, many of the earlier GT-based studies include potential statistical fallacies by measuring the correlation between non-stationary time sequences without adjusting for multiple comparisons or the confounding of media coverage, leading to concerns about the increased risk of obtaining false-positive results. In this study, we aimed to apply statistically more favorable methods to validate the earlier GT-based COVID-19 study results.

METHODS

We extracted the relative GT search volume for keywords associated with COVID-19 symptoms, and evaluated their Granger-causality to weekly COVID-19 positivity in eight English-speaking countries and Japan. In addition, the impact of media coverage on keywords with significant Granger-causality was further evaluated using Japanese regional data.

RESULTS

Our Granger causality-based approach largely decreased (by up to approximately one-third) the number of keywords identified as having a significant temporal relationship with the COVID-19 trend when compared to those identified by Pearson or Spearman's rank correlation-based approach. "Sense of smell" and "loss of smell" were the most reliable GT keywords across all the evaluated countries; however, when adjusted with their media coverage, these keyword trends did not Granger-cause the COVID-19 positivity trends (in Japan).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that some of the search keywords reported as candidate predictive measures in earlier GT-based COVID-19 studies may potentially be unreliable; therefore, caution is necessary when interpreting published GT-based study results.

High variability in model performance of Google relative search volumes in spatially clustered COVID-19 areas of the USA

Objective: Incorporating spatial analyses and online health information queries may be beneficial in understanding the role of Google relative search volume (RSV) data as a secondary public health surveillance tool during pandemics. This study identified coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) clustering and defined the predictability performance of Google RSV models in clustered and non-clustered areas of the USA.

Methods: Getis-Ord General and local G statistics were used to identify monthly clustering patterns. Monthly country- and state-level correlations between new daily COVID-19 cases and Google RSVs were assessed using Spearman's rank correlation coefficients and Poisson regression models for January–December 2020.

Results: Huge clusters involving multiple states were found, which resulted from various control measures in each state. This demonstrates the importance of state-to-state coordination in implementing control measures to tackle the spread of outbreaks. Variability in Google RSV model performance was found among states and time periods, possibly suggesting the need to use different frameworks for Google RSV data in each state. Moreover, the sign of correlation can be utilized to understand public responses to control and preventive measures, as well as in communicating risk.

Conclusion: COVID-19 Google RSV model accuracy in the USA may be influenced by COVID-19 transmission dynamics, policy-driven community awareness and past outbreak experiences.

COVID-19 pandemic in the Middle East countries: coronavirus-seeking behavior versus coronavirus-related publications

The spread of COVID-19 has created a fundamental need for coordinated mechanisms responding to outbreaks in different sectors. One of the main sectors relates to information supply and demand in the middle of this pandemic in the digital environment. It could be called an infodemiology. It is known as a promising approach to solving the challenge in the present age. At this level, the purpose of this article is to investigate the COVID-19 related search process by field research. Data were retrieved from Google Trends in Middle Eastern countries alongside scientific research output of Middle Eastern scientists towards COVID-19 in Web of Science, Scopus, and PubMed. Daily COVID-19 cases and deaths were retrieved from the World Health Organization. We searched for descriptive statistical analyses to detect coronavirus-seeking behavior versus coronavirus releases in the Middle East in 2020. Findings show that people in the Middle East use various keyword solutions to search for COVID-19 in Google. There is a significant correlation between coronavirus confirmed cases and scientific productivity (January 2020-December 2020). Also, there is a positive association between the number of deaths and the number of scientific publications (except Jordan). It was a positive and significant association between online coronavirus-seeking behavior on Google (RSVs) and the confirmed cases (except Syria and Yemen). Furthermore, it was a positive relationship between RSVs and scientific productivity in the Middle East (except Bahrain and Qatar). From an infodemiological viewpoint, there is a significant correlation between coronavirus information demand and its information provision.

Google searches for bruxism, teeth grinding, and teeth clenching during the COVID-19 pandemic

Purpose

Whether coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has an impact on bruxism represents an important gap of knowledge. This study evaluated the trends in Google searches, as an indication of public interest and demand, for bruxism and its symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods

Google Trends was queried for bruxism, teeth grinding, and teeth clenching both worldwide and in the United States. Two periods in 2020 (March 15–May 9 and May 10–October 17) were compared to similar periods of 2016–2019 to investigate both initial and short-term interest.

Results

The relative search volume of bruxism, teeth grinding, and teeth clenching was not significantly different between 2020 and 2016–2019 worldwide or in the United States in the March 15–May 9 period. Only the search for teeth grinding showed an increase worldwide. In the May 10–October 17 period, the relative search volume of bruxism, teeth grinding, and teeth clenching all was significantly higher in 2020 compared to 2016–2019 both worldwide and in the United States.

Conclusion

The study showed that the relative search volume for bruxism, teeth grinding, and teeth clenching, as an indication of public interest and demand, was increased both worldwide and in the United States during the May–October 2020 period compared to similar periods of the previous 4 years. Dentists should address this increased public interest and demand for information seeking for bruxism. Follow-up studies monitoring long-term interest as a real-time surveillance and evaluating whether increased internet searches are linked to an actual increase or worsening of bruxism and its symptoms in the clinic are required.

SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance System in Canada: Longitudinal Trend Analysis

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 global pandemic has disrupted structures and communities across the globe. Numerous regions of the world have had varying responses in their attempts to contain the spread of the virus. Factors such as public health policies, governance, and sociopolitical climate have led to differential levels of success at controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Ultimately, a more advanced surveillance metric for COVID-19 transmission is necessary to help government systems and national leaders understand which responses have been effective and gauge where outbreaks occur.

OBJECTIVE

The goal of this study is to provide advanced COVID-19 surveillance metrics for Canada at the country, province, and territory level that account for shifts in the pandemic including speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence. Enhanced surveillance identifies risks for explosive growth and regions that have controlled outbreaks successfully.

METHODS

Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 62 days of COVID-19 data from Canadian public health registries for 13 provinces and territories. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in Canada as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R.

RESULTS

We compare the week of February 7-13, 2021, with the week of February 14-20, 2021. Canada, as a whole, had a decrease in speed from 8.4 daily new cases per 100,000 population to 7.5 daily new cases per 100,000 population. The persistence of new cases during the week of February 14-20 reported 7.5 cases that are a result of COVID-19 transmissions 7 days earlier. The two most populous provinces of Ontario and Quebec both experienced decreases in speed from 7.9 and 11.5 daily new cases per 100,000 population for the week of February 7-13 to speeds of 6.9 and 9.3 for the week of February 14-20, respectively. Nunavut experienced a significant increase in speed during this time, from 3.3 daily new cases per 100,000 population to 10.9 daily new cases per 100,000 population.

CONCLUSIONS

Canada excelled at COVID-19 control early on in the pandemic, especially during the first COVID-19 shutdown. The second wave at the end of 2020 resulted in a resurgence of the outbreak, which has since been controlled. Enhanced surveillance identifies outbreaks and where there is the potential for explosive growth, which informs proactive health policy.

Google Trends for Pain Search Terms in the World's Most Populated Regions Before and After the First Recorded COVID-19 Case: Infodemiological Study

BACKGROUND

Web-based analysis of search queries has become a very useful method in various academic fields for understanding timely and regional differences in the public interest in certain terms and concepts. Particularly in health and medical research, Google Trends has been increasingly used over the last decade.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to assess the search activity of pain-related parameters on Google Trends from among the most populated regions worldwide over a 3-year period from before the report of the first confirmed COVID-19 cases in these regions (January 2018) until December 2020.

METHODS

Search terms from the following regions were used for the analysis: India, China, Europe, the United States, Brazil, Pakistan, and Indonesia. In total, 24 expressions of pain location were assessed. Search terms were extracted using the local language of the respective country. Python scripts were used for data mining. All statistical calculations were performed through exploratory data analysis and nonparametric Mann-Whitney U tests.

RESULTS

Although the overall search activity for pain-related terms increased, apart from pain entities such as headache, chest pain, and sore throat, we observed discordant search activity. Among the most populous regions, pain-related search parameters for shoulder, abdominal, and chest pain, headache, and toothache differed significantly before and after the first officially confirmed COVID-19 cases (for all, P<.001). In addition, we observed a heterogenous, marked increase or reduction in pain-related search parameters among the most populated regions.

CONCLUSIONS

As internet searches are a surrogate for public interest, we assume that our data are indicative of an increased incidence of pain after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as these increased incidences vary across geographical and anatomical locations, our findings could potentially facilitate the development of specific strategies to support the most affected groups.

The Causality Inference of Public Interest in Restaurants and Bars on Daily COVID-19 Cases in the United States: Google Trends Analysis

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected virtually every region in the world. At the time of this study, the number of daily new cases in the United States was greater than that in any other country, and the trend was increasing in most states. Google Trends provides data regarding public interest in various topics during different periods. Analyzing these trends using data mining methods may provide useful insights and observations regarding the COVID-19 outbreak.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study is to consider the predictive ability of different search terms not directly related to COVID-19 with regard to the increase of daily cases in the United States. In particular, we are concerned with searches related to dine-in restaurants and bars. Data were obtained from the Google Trends application programming interface and the COVID-19 Tracking Project.

METHODS

To test the causation of one time series on another, we used the Granger causality test. We considered the causation of two different search query trends related to dine-in restaurants and bars on daily positive cases in the US states and territories with the 10 highest and 10 lowest numbers of daily new cases of COVID-19. In addition, we used Pearson correlations to measure the linear relationships between different trends.

RESULTS

Our results showed that for states and territories with higher numbers of daily cases, the historical trends in search queries related to bars and restaurants, which mainly occurred after reopening, significantly affected the number of daily new cases on average. California, for example, showed the most searches for restaurants on June 7, 2020; this affected the number of new cases within two weeks after the peak, with a P value of .004 for the Granger causality test.

CONCLUSIONS

Although a limited number of search queries were considered, Google search trends for restaurants and bars showed a significant effect on daily new cases in US states and territories with higher numbers of daily new cases. We showed that these influential search trends can be used to provide additional information for prediction tasks regarding new cases in each region. These predictions can help health care leaders manage and control the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on society and prepare for its outcomes.

Public interest in rheumatic diseases and rheumatologist in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from Google Trends

To evaluate the public interest in rheumatic diseases during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Google Trends was queried to analyze search trends in the United States for numerous rheumatic diseases and also the interest in a rheumatologist. Three 8-week periods in 2020 ((March 15-May 9), (May 10-July 4), and (July 5-August 29)) were compared to similar periods of the prior 4 years (2016-2019). Compared to a similar time period between 2016 and 2019, a significant decrease was found in the relative search volume for more than half of the search terms during the initial March 15-May 9, 2020 period. However, this trend appeared to reverse during the July 5-August 29, 2020 period where the relative volume for nearly half of the search terms were not statistically significant compared to similar periods of the prior 4 years. In addition, this period showed a significant increase in relative volume for the terms: Axial spondyloarthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, psoriatic arthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, Sjögren's syndrome, antiphospholipid syndrome, scleroderma, Kawasaki disease, Anti-Neutrophil Cytoplasmic Antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitis, and rheumatologist. There was a significant decrease in relative search volume for many rheumatic diseases between March 15 and May 9, 2020 when compared to similar periods during the prior 4 years. However, the trends reversed after the initial period ended. There was an increase in relative search for the term "rheumatologist" between July and August 2020 suggesting the need for rheumatologists during the COVID-19 pandemic. Policymakers and healthcare providers should address the informational demands on rheumatic diseases and needs for rheumatologists by the general public during pandemics like COVID-19.

Online Search Behavior Related to COVID-19 Vaccines: Infodemiology Study

BACKGROUND

Vaccination against COVID-19 is an important public health strategy to address the ongoing pandemic. Examination of online search behavior related to COVID-19 vaccines can provide insights into the public's awareness, concerns, and interest regarding COVID-19 vaccination.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study is to describe online search behavior related to COVID-19 vaccines during the start of public vaccination efforts in the United States.

METHODS

We examined Google Trends data from January 1, 2021, through March 16, 2021, to determine the relative search volume for vaccine-related searches on the internet. We also examined search query log data for COVID-19 vaccine-related searches and identified 5 categories of searches: (1) general or other information, (2) vaccine availability, (3) vaccine manufacturer, (4) vaccine side-effects and safety, and (5) vaccine myths and conspiracy beliefs. In this paper, we report on the proportion and trends for these different categories of vaccine-related searches.

RESULTS

In the first quarter of 2021, the proportion of all web-based search queries related to COVID-19 vaccines increased from approximately 10% to nearly 50% of all COVID-19-related queries (P<.001). A majority of COVID-19 vaccine queries addressed vaccine availability, and there was a particularly notable increase in the proportion of queries that included the name of a specific pharmacy (from 6% to 27%; P=.01). Queries related to vaccine safety and side-effects (<5% of total queries) or specific vaccine-related myths (<1% of total queries) were uncommon, and the relative frequency of both types of searches decreased during the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates an increase in online search behavior related to COVID-19 vaccination in early 2021 along with an increase in the proportion of searches related to vaccine availability at pharmacies. These findings are consistent with an increase in public interest and intention to get vaccinated during the initial phase of public COVID-19 vaccination efforts.

Google Trends Data and COVID-19 in Europe: Correlations and model enhancement are European wide

The current COVID-19 pandemic offers a unique opportunity to examine the utility of Internet search data in disease modelling across multiple countries. Most such studies typically examine trends within only a single country, with few going beyond describing the relationship between search data patterns and disease occurrence. Google Trends data (GTD) indicating the volume of Internet searching on 'coronavirus' were obtained for a range of European countries along with corresponding incident case numbers. Significant positive correlations between GTD with incident case numbers occurred across European countries, with the strongest correlations being obtained using contemporaneous data for most countries. GTD was then integrated into a distributed lag model; this improved model quality for both the increasing and decreasing epidemic phases. These results show the utility of Internet search data in disease modelling, with possible implications for cross country analysis.

Public Interest in Sports Medicine and Surgery (Anterior Cruciate Ligament, Meniscus, Rotator Cuff) Topics Declined Following the COVID-19 Outbreak

Purpose

To quantify the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic's impact on public interest in sports medicine and surgery topics.

Methods

The Google Trends analysis tool (Google Search Volume Indices [GSVI]) was used to collect search information regarding orthopaedic sports medicine terms ("ACL," "meniscus," "rotator cuff") and sports surgery terms ("ACL surgery," "meniscus surgery," "rotator cuff surgery") from May 2015 to May 2020. A time series analysis was performed for these GSVIs and compared to the timing of the pandemic.

Results

Interest in both sports medicine and surgery declined following the COVID-19 outbreak. Following the World Health Organization's statement on COVID-19's pandemic status on March 11, 2020, searches for "ACL," "meniscus" and "rotator cuff" declined by 34.78%, 43.95%, and 31.37%, and search for "ACL surgery," "meniscus surgery" and "rotator cuff surgery" declined by 42.70%, 51.88%, and 53.32%, respectively.

Conclusion

The COVID-19 outbreak correlated with a decline in public interest in sports medicine and sports surgery topics, as measured by Google searches.

Clinical relevance

Orthopaedic sports medicine and arthroscopy patient and surgical case volumes were negatively affected by various factors after the onset of the pandemic. One factor associated with the volume decrease is a decline in public interest.

Association of Public Interest in Preventive Measures and Increased COVID-19 Cases After the Expiration of Stay-at-Home Orders: A Cross-Sectional Study

Objective:

Following stay-at-home (SAH) orders issued for coronavirus disease (COVID-19), state-level economic concerns increased and many let these orders expire. As a method to measure public preparedness, we sought to explore the association between public interest in preventive measures and the easing of SAH orders – specifically the increases in COVID-19 cases and fatalities after the orders expired.

Methods:

Search volume was collected from Google Trends for “hand sanitizer,” “social distancing,” “COVID testing,” and “contact tracing” for each state. Bivariate correlations were computed to analyze associations between public interest in preventive measures, changes in confirmed COVID-19 cases after SAH expirations, COVID-19 case-fatality rates, and by-state presidential voting percentages.

Results:

A higher interest in preventive measures was associated with lower rates of confirmed cases after SAH orders had expired (r = −0.33), higher state-wide deaths per capita (r = 0.42), and case-fatality rates (r = 0.60). Moderate to strong negative correlations were found between states’ percentage of voters supporting the Republican nominee in 2016 and proportion of queries for average preventive measures (r = −0.77).

Conclusion:

Our investigation shows that increased public interest in COVID-19 prevention was associated with longer SAH orders and less COVID-19 cases after the SAH orders’ expiration; however, it was also associated with higher case-fatality rates.