The Prevalence of Psychotic Symptoms, Violent Ideation, and Disruptive Behavior in a Population With SARS-CoV-2 Infection: Preliminary Study

A novel approach to anxiety level prediction using small sets of judgment and survey variables

Anxiety, a condition characterized by intense fear and persistent worry, affects millions each year and, when severe, is distressing and functionally impairing. Numerous machine learning frameworks have been developed and tested to predict features of anxiety and anxiety traits. This study extended these approaches by using a small set of interpretable judgment variables (n = 15) and contextual variables (demographics, perceived loneliness, COVID-19 history) to (1) understand the relationships between these variables and (2) develop a framework to predict anxiety levels [derived from the State Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI)]. This set of 15 judgment variables, including loss aversion and risk aversion, models biases in reward/aversion judgments extracted from an unsupervised, short (2-3 min) picture rating task (using the International Affective Picture System) that can be completed on a smartphone. The study cohort consisted of 3476 de-identified adult participants from across the United States who were recruited using an email survey database. Using a balanced Random Forest approach with these judgment and contextual variables, STAI-derived anxiety levels were predicted with up to 81% accuracy and 0.71 AUC ROC. Normalized Gini scores showed that the most important predictors (age, loneliness, household income, employment status) contributed a total of 29-31% of the cumulative relative importance and up to 61% was contributed by judgment variables. Mediation/moderation statistics revealed that the interactions between judgment and contextual variables appears to be important for accurately predicting anxiety levels. Median shifts in judgment variables described a behavioral profile for individuals with higher anxiety levels that was characterized by less resilience, more avoidance, and more indifference behavior. This study supports the hypothesis that distinct constellations of 15 interpretable judgment variables, along with contextual variables, could yield an efficient and highly scalable system for mental health assessment. These results contribute to our understanding of underlying psychological processes that are necessary to characterize what causes variance in anxiety conditions and its behaviors, which can impact treatment development and efficacy.

Predicting COVID-19 Vaccination Uptake Using a Small and Interpretable Set of Judgment and Demographic Variables: Cross-Sectional Cognitive Science Study

BACKGROUND

Despite COVID-19 vaccine mandates, many chose to forgo vaccination, raising questions about the psychology underlying how judgment affects these choices. Research shows that reward and aversion judgments are important for vaccination choice; however, no studies have integrated such cognitive science with machine learning to predict COVID-19 vaccine uptake.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to determine the predictive power of a small but interpretable set of judgment variables using 3 machine learning algorithms to predict COVID-19 vaccine uptake and interpret what profile of judgment variables was important for prediction.

METHODS

We surveyed 3476 adults across the United States in December 2021. Participants answered demographic, COVID-19 vaccine uptake (ie, whether participants were fully vaccinated), and COVID-19 precaution questions. Participants also completed a picture-rating task using images from the International Affective Picture System. Images were rated on a Likert-type scale to calibrate the degree of liking and disliking. Ratings were computationally modeled using relative preference theory to produce a set of graphs for each participant (minimum R2>0.8). In total, 15 judgment features were extracted from these graphs, 2 being analogous to risk and loss aversion from behavioral economics. These judgment variables, along with demographics, were compared between those who were fully vaccinated and those who were not. In total, 3 machine learning approaches (random forest, balanced random forest [BRF], and logistic regression) were used to test how well judgment, demographic, and COVID-19 precaution variables predicted vaccine uptake. Mediation and moderation were implemented to assess statistical mechanisms underlying successful prediction.

RESULTS

Age, income, marital status, employment status, ethnicity, educational level, and sex differed by vaccine uptake (Wilcoxon rank sum and chi-square P<.001). Most judgment variables also differed by vaccine uptake (Wilcoxon rank sum P<.05). A similar area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was achieved by the 3 machine learning frameworks, although random forest and logistic regression produced specificities between 30% and 38% (vs 74.2% for BRF), indicating a lower performance in predicting unvaccinated participants. BRF achieved high precision (87.8%) and AUROC (79%) with moderate to high accuracy (70.8%) and balanced recall (69.6%) and specificity (74.2%). It should be noted that, for BRF, the negative predictive value was <50% despite good specificity. For BRF and random forest, 63% to 75% of the feature importance came from the 15 judgment variables. Furthermore, age, income, and educational level mediated relationships between judgment variables and vaccine uptake.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings demonstrate the underlying importance of judgment variables for vaccine choice and uptake, suggesting that vaccine education and messaging might target varying judgment profiles to improve uptake. These methods could also be used to aid vaccine rollouts and health care preparedness by providing location-specific details (eg, identifying areas that may experience low vaccination and high hospitalization).