Interpretable Machine Learning Prediction of Drug-Induced QT Prolongation: Electronic Health Record Analysis

A polygenic risk score for the QT interval is an independent predictor of drug-induced QT prolongation

Drug-induced QT prolongation (diLQTS), and subsequent risk of torsade de pointes, is a major concern with use of many medications, including for non-cardiac conditions. The possibility that genetic risk, in the form of polygenic risk scores (PGS), could be integrated into prediction of risk of diLQTS has great potential, although it is unknown how genetic risk is related to clinical risk factors as might be applied in clinical decision-making. In this study, we examined the PGS for QT interval in 2500 subjects exposed to a known QT-prolonging drug on prolongation of the QT interval over 500ms on subsequent ECG using electronic health record data. We found that the normalized QT PGS was higher in cases than controls (0.212±0.954 vs. -0.0270±1.003, P = 0.0002), with an unadjusted odds ratio of 1.34 (95%CI 1.17-1.53, P<0.001) for association with diLQTS. When included with age and clinical predictors of QT prolongation, we found that the PGS for QT interval provided independent risk prediction for diLQTS, in which the interaction for high-risk diagnosis or with certain high-risk medications (amiodarone, sotalol, and dofetilide) was not significant, indicating that genetic risk did not modify the effect of other risk factors on risk of diLQTS. We found that a high-risk cutoff (QT PGS ≥ 2 standard deviations above mean), but not a low-risk cutoff, was associated with risk of diLQTS after adjustment for clinical factors, and provided one method of integration based on the decision-tree framework. In conclusion, we found that PGS for QT interval is an independent predictor of diLQTS, but that in contrast to existing theories about repolarization reserve as a mechanism of increasing risk, the effect is independent of other clinical risk factors. More work is needed for external validation in clinical decision-making, as well as defining the mechanism through which genes that increase QT interval are associated with risk of diLQTS.

Computational Approaches for Predicting Preterm Birth and Newborn Outcomes

Preterm birth (PTB) and its associated morbidities are a leading cause of infant mortality and morbidity. Accurate predictive models and a better biological understanding of PTB-associated morbidities are critical in reducing their adverse effects. Increasing availability of multimodal high-dimensional data sets with concurrent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have created a rich opportunity to gain novel insights into PTB, a clinically complex and multifactorial disease. Here, the authors review the use of AI to analyze 3 modes of data: electronic health records, biological omics, and social determinants of health metrics.

QTNet: Predicting Drug-Induced QT Prolongation With Artificial Intelligence-Enabled Electrocardiograms

BACKGROUND

Prediction of drug-induced long QT syndrome (diLQTS) is of critical importance given its association with torsades de pointes. There is no reliable method for the outpatient prediction of diLQTS.

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to evaluate the use of a convolutional neural network (CNN) applied to electrocardiograms (ECGs) to predict diLQTS in an outpatient population.

METHODS

We identified all adult outpatients newly prescribed a QT-prolonging medication between January 1, 2003, and March 31, 2022, who had a 12-lead sinus ECG in the preceding 6 months. Using risk factor data and the ECG signal as inputs, the CNN QTNet was implemented in TensorFlow to predict diLQTS.

RESULTS

Models were evaluated in a held-out test dataset of 44,386 patients (57% female) with a median age of 62 years. Compared with 3 other models relying on risk factors or ECG signal or baseline QTc alone, QTNet achieved the best (P < 0.001) performance with a mean area under the curve of 0.802 (95% CI: 0.786-0.818). In a survival analysis, QTNet also had the highest inverse probability of censorship-weighted area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve at day 2 (0.875; 95% CI: 0.848-0.904) and up to 6 months. In a subgroup analysis, QTNet performed best among males and patients ≤50 years or with baseline QTc <450 ms. In an external validation cohort of solely suburban outpatient practices, QTNet similarly maintained the highest predictive performance.

CONCLUSIONS

An ECG-based CNN can accurately predict diLQTS in the outpatient setting while maintaining its predictive performance over time. In the outpatient setting, our model could identify higher-risk individuals who would benefit from closer monitoring.

A Discussion of the Contemporary Prediction Models for Atrial Fibrillation

Atrial Fibrillation is a complex disease state with many environmental and genetic risk factors. While there are environmental factors that have been shown to increase an individual's risk of atrial fibrillation, it has become clear that atrial fibrillation has a genetic component that influences why some patients are at a higher risk of developing atrial fibrillation compared to others. This review will first discuss the clinical diagnosis of atrial fibrillation and the corresponding rhythm atrial flutter. We will then discuss how a patients' risk of stroke can be assessed by using other clinical co-morbidities. We will then review the clinical risk factors that can be used to help predict an individual patient's risk of atrial fibrillation. Many of the clinical risk factors have been used to create several different risk scoring methods that will be reviewed. We will then discuss how genetics can be used to identify individuals who are at higher risk for developing atrial fibrillation. We will discuss genome-wide association studies and other sequencing high-throughput sequencing studies. Finally, we will touch on how genetic variants derived from a genome-wide association studies can be used to calculate an individual's polygenic risk score for atrial fibrillation. An atrial fibrillation polygenic risk score can be used to identify patients at higher risk of developing atrial fibrillation and may allow for a reduction in some of the complications associated with atrial fibrillation such as cerebrovascular accidents and the development of heart failure. Finally, there is a brief discussion of how artificial intelligence models can be used to predict which patients will develop atrial fibrillation.

Machine Learning in Cardio-Oncology: New Insights from an Emerging Discipline

A growing body of evidence on a wide spectrum of adverse cardiac events following oncologic therapies has led to the emergence of cardio-oncology as an increasingly relevant interdisciplinary specialty. This also calls for better risk-stratification for patients undergoing cancer treatment. Machine learning (ML), a popular branch discipline of artificial intelligence that tackles complex big data problems by identifying interaction patterns among variables, has seen increasing usage in cardio-oncology studies for risk stratification. The objective of this comprehensive review is to outline the application of ML approaches in cardio-oncology, including deep learning, artificial neural networks, random forest and summarize the cardiotoxicity identified by ML. The current literature shows that ML has been applied for the prediction, diagnosis and treatment of cardiotoxicity in cancer patients. In addition, role of ML in gender and racial disparities for cardiac outcomes and potential future directions of cardio-oncology are discussed. It is essential to establish dedicated multidisciplinary teams in the hospital and educate medical professionals to become familiar and proficient in ML in the future.