QTNet: Predicting Drug-Induced QT Prolongation With Artificial Intelligence-Enabled Electrocardiograms

BACKGROUND

Prediction of drug-induced long QT syndrome (diLQTS) is of critical importance given its association with torsades de pointes. There is no reliable method for the outpatient prediction of diLQTS.

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to evaluate the use of a convolutional neural network (CNN) applied to electrocardiograms (ECGs) to predict diLQTS in an outpatient population.

METHODS

We identified all adult outpatients newly prescribed a QT-prolonging medication between January 1, 2003, and March 31, 2022, who had a 12-lead sinus ECG in the preceding 6 months. Using risk factor data and the ECG signal as inputs, the CNN QTNet was implemented in TensorFlow to predict diLQTS.

RESULTS

Models were evaluated in a held-out test dataset of 44,386 patients (57% female) with a median age of 62 years. Compared with 3 other models relying on risk factors or ECG signal or baseline QTc alone, QTNet achieved the best (P < 0.001) performance with a mean area under the curve of 0.802 (95% CI: 0.786-0.818). In a survival analysis, QTNet also had the highest inverse probability of censorship-weighted area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve at day 2 (0.875; 95% CI: 0.848-0.904) and up to 6 months. In a subgroup analysis, QTNet performed best among males and patients ≤50 years or with baseline QTc <450 ms. In an external validation cohort of solely suburban outpatient practices, QTNet similarly maintained the highest predictive performance.

CONCLUSIONS

An ECG-based CNN can accurately predict diLQTS in the outpatient setting while maintaining its predictive performance over time. In the outpatient setting, our model could identify higher-risk individuals who would benefit from closer monitoring.

Enhanced Nonlinear Response by Manipulating the Dirac Point at the (111) LaTiO_{3}/SrTiO_{3} Interface

Tunable spin-orbit interaction (SOI) is an important feature for future spin-based devices. In the presence of a magnetic field, SOI induces an asymmetry in the energy bands, which can produce nonlinear transport effects (V∼I^{2}). Here, we focus on such effects to study the role of SOI in the (111) LaTiO_{3}/SrTiO_{3} interface. This system is a convenient platform for understanding the role of SOI since it exhibits a single-band Hall response through the entire gate-voltage range studied. We report a pronounced rise in the nonlinear longitudinal resistance at a critical in-plane field H_{cr}. This rise disappears when a small out-of-plane field component is present. We explain these results by considering the location of the Dirac point formed at the crossing of the spin-split energy bands. An in-plane magnetic field pushes this point outside of the Fermi contour, and consequently changes the symmetry of the Fermi contours and intensifies the nonlinear transport. An out-of-plane magnetic field opens a gap at the Dirac point, thereby significantly diminishing the nonlinear effects. We propose that magnetoresistance effects previously reported in interfaces with SOI could be comprehended within our suggested scenario.

Development and external validation of a dynamic risk score for early prediction of cardiogenic shock in cardiac intensive care units using machine learning

BACKGROUND

Myocardial infarction and heart failure are major cardiovascular diseases that affect millions of people in the US with the morbidity and mortality being highest among patients who develop cardiogenic shock. Early recognition of cardiogenic shock allows prompt implementation of treatment measures. Our objective is to develop a new dynamic risk score, called CShock, to improve early detection of cardiogenic shock in cardiac intensive care unit (ICU).

METHODS

We developed and externally validated a deep learning-based risk stratification tool, called CShock, for patients admitted into the cardiac ICU with acute decompensated heart failure and/or myocardial infarction to predict onset of cardiogenic shock. We prepared a cardiac ICU dataset using MIMIC-III database by annotating with physician adjudicated outcomes. This dataset that consisted of 1500 patients with 204 having cardiogenic/mixed shock was then used to train CShock. The features used to train the model for CShock included patient demographics, cardiac ICU admission diagnoses, routinely measured laboratory values and vital signs, and relevant features manually extracted from echocardiogram and left heart catheterization reports. We externally validated the risk model on the New York University (NYU) Langone Health cardiac ICU database that was also annotated with physician adjudicated outcomes. The external validation cohort consisted of 131 patients with 25 patients experiencing cardiogenic/mixed shock.

RESULTS

CShock achieved an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.821 (95% CI 0.792-0.850). CShock was externally validated in the more contemporary NYU cohort and achieved an AUROC of 0.800 (95% CI 0.717-0.884), demonstrating its generalizability in other cardiac ICUs. Having an elevated heart rate is most predictive of cardiogenic shock development based on Shapley values. The other top ten predictors are having an admission diagnosis of myocardial infarction with ST-segment elevation, having an admission diagnosis of acute decompensated heart failure, Braden Scale, Glasgow Coma Scale, Blood urea nitrogen, Systolic blood pressure, Serum chloride, Serum sodium, and Arterial blood pH.

CONCLUSIONS

The novel CShock score has the potential to provide automated detection and early warning for cardiogenic shock and improve the outcomes for the millions of patients who suffer from myocardial infarction and heart failure.

Two-component nematic superconductivity in 4Hb-TaS2

Most superconductors have an isotropic, single component order parameter and are well described by the standard (BCS) theory for superconductivity. Unconventional, multiple-component superconductors are exceptionally rare and are much less understood. Here, we combine scanning tunneling microscopy and angle-resolved macroscopic transport for studying the candidate chiral superconductor, 4Hb-TaS2. We reveal quasi-periodic one-dimensional modulations in the tunneling conductance accompanied by two-fold symmetric superconducting critical field. The strong modulation of the in-plane critical field, Hc2, points to a nematic, unconventional order parameter. However, the imaged vortex core is isotropic at low temperatures. We suggest a model that reconciles this apparent discrepancy and takes into account previously observed spontaneous time-reversal symmetry breaking at low temperatures. The model describes a competition between a dominating chiral superconducting order parameter and a nematic one. The latter emerges close to the normal phase. Our results strongly support the existence of two-component superconductivity in 4Hb-TaS2 and can provide valuable insights into other systems with coexistent charge order and superconductivity.

RBE Model Based Proton Planning of Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy for Spine Metastasis: A Dosimetric Analysis

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

Study of proton stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) for spine metastasis is limited, largely due to theorized increased risk of spinal cord injury with higher end of range RBE. Though the 1.1 RBE constant for proton beam is clinically used, data indicate that proton RBE is variable and dependent on technical-, tissue-, and patient-factors. To better understand safety of proton SBRT for spine metastasis, we performed a dosimetric analysis comparing plans delivered by photon robotic technique versus intensity modulated proton therapy (IMPT) and accounting for RBE weighted dose.

MATERIALS/METHODS

A total of 9 patients with spine metastasis (3 cervical, 3 thoracic, 3 lumbar) previously treated with a frameless robotic radiosurgery system (Sunnyvale, CA) were identified. Each level contained a case with paraspinal extension, a reirradiation case, and a case with epidural extension (Bilsky grade ≥1c) as such cases in current practice often require planning target volume (PTV) under-coverage in order to meet organ at risk (OAR) dose constraints. Given these challenges, selected cases were clinically treated with 30 Gy in 5 fractions despite an institutional preference of further dose escalation. Comparative IMPT plans were generated using 30 GyE in 5 fractions and 1.1 RBE constant. IMPT plans were then made using 1.1 RBE and 45 GyE in 5 fractions: a prescription dose associated with a 2-yr local control rate of 95% on prior tumor control probability modelling. A treatment planning system was used to separately generate and optimize RBE weighted plans based on Carabe-, McNamara-, or Wedenberg models for prescription doses of 30 GyE and 45 GyE. IMPT plans used robust optimization parameters of ± 3.5% range and 2-mm setup uncertainties. PTV coverage and OAR sparing were compared using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests.

RESULTS

PTV coverage (PTV volume receiving prescription dose) was significantly improved with IMPT at 30 GyE / 1.1 RBE (median PTV V30: 93%) compared to CK at 30 Gy (median: 88.5%, p = .02). PTV coverage was similar when comparing CK at 30 Gy with IMPT at 45 GyE / 1.1 RBE (median PTV V45: 90%, p = .23). When comparing maximum spinal cord dose (cord Dmax), there was improved OAR sparing with IMPT at 30 GyE / 1.1 RBE (median: 17.6 GyE, p = .04) and IMPT at 45 GyE / 1.1 RBE (median: 16.1 GyE, p = .04) when respectively compared to CK at 30 Gy (median: 18 Gy). No difference was seen in cord Dmax when comparing CK at 30 Gy to RBE weighted plans at 30 GyE using Carabe- (median: 17.3 GyE, p = .22), McNamara- (median: 17.4 GyE, p = .22), or Wedenberg (median: 17.0 GyE, p = .08) model. Median cord Dmax values for RBE weighted plans at 45 GyE were numerically equivalent. The average increase in variable RBE plans' maximum dose compared to fixed RBE plans was 105.3% +/- 3.5%.

CONCLUSION

We report the first dosimetric analysis of proton SBRT for spine metastasis using variable RBE dose models. IMPT may provide improved target coverage and better sparing of adjacent OARs compared to CK though fixed RBE computation may underestimate maximum dose to adjacent OARs.

HPV Infection Causes Dependence on Alternative DNA Damage Response Pathways Providing Cancer Specific Targets for Radiosensitization

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

Cancer-specific radiosensitization is an attractive approach to improving the efficacy of radiotherapy. However, drugs targeting ubiquitous DNA damage response pathways are not cancer specific and can increase radiation related side effects. Thus, there is an unmet need for tumor specific molecular targets. This approach requires an identification of DNA damage signaling pathways that are unique to cancer cells. We hypothesized that by expressing its genome in the host cells HPV infection can rewire DNA damage signaling making HPV-positive tumor cells dependent on alternative pathways to survive radiation, which can be exploited for radiosensitization of HPV-induced cancers.

MATERIALS/METHODS

We have performed a CRISPR/Cas9 screen in HPV-positive SiHa cells that either express HPV16 proteins E6 and E7 or contain a selective knock-out of E6 or E7. We used next-generation sequencing to determine the abundance of gRNA in cells that were mock-treated or irradiated. We identified genes that were required for survival of radiation specifically in the context of E6 or E7 expression. Results of the screen were validated by generating knock-outs of the discovered genes using CRISPR/Cas9. By applying an array of molecular tools to analyze cell survival, cell cycle progression and mitotic progression we assessed the role of these genes in radiation response in HPV-positive cancer cells.

RESULTS

We have identified genes that are required for survival of radiation-induced DNA damage in the context of either E6 or E7 expression. We demonstrate that targeting these genes results in hypersensitization of cervical cancer cells to radiation specifically in the presence of E6 or E7. We show that the gene product required for survival in E6-expressing cells is critical for mitotic progression after radiation exposure serving as a member of a protein complex stabilizing the attachment of mitotic spindle to centromeres.

CONCLUSION

We have uncovered specific genes that are critical for DNA damage response and cell survival after radiation exposure in HPV-positive cells. Our findings suggest that expression of the HPV proteins E6 and E7 rewires DNA damage signaling causing dependence on alternative response pathways. We propose that these pathways can be targeted for a tumor-specific radiosensitization of HPV-induced cancers.

Ulotaront, a Trace Amine-Associated Receptor 1/Serotonin 5-HT1A Agonist, in Patients With Parkinson Disease Psychosis: A Pilot Study

Background and Objectives

Ulotaront (SEP-363856) is a trace amine-associated receptor 1 agonist with 5-HT_1A receptor agonist activity currently in phase 3 clinical development for the treatment of schizophrenia. In this exploratory, flexibly dosed study, ulotaront was evaluated for the treatment of Parkinson disease psychosis (PDP).

Methods

Patients with PDP requiring antipsychotic therapy were randomized, double-blind to ulotaront (25, 50, or 75 mg/d) or placebo. Mixed Model for Repeated Measures was used to assess change from baseline in the Scale for the Assessment of Positive Symptoms for Parkinson Disease (SAPS-PD) at 6 weeks (primary end point).

Results

The efficacy analysis sample comprised 38 patients (ulotaront, n = 24; placebo, n = 14). SAPS-PD total scores were numerically reduced in ulotaront-treated vs placebo-treated patients from week 1 to week 6: Least squares mean (95% confidence interval) difference in change from baseline at week 6 was -1.1 (-6.5, 4.3, p = 0.681). PDP symptom complete remission (≥100% improvement [reduction] from baseline in SAPS-PD total score) was observed in 25% of ulotaront-treated vs 0% of placebo-treated patients. SAPS-PD and Neuropsychiatric Inventory hallucinations subscales were numerically reduced vs placebo, and SAPS-PD total scores were reduced in patients with greater cognitive impairment (baseline Mini-Mental State Examination [MMSE] scores ≤24). Ulotaront improved Scales for Outcomes in Parkinson Disease Sleep Scale - Daytime Sleepiness scores (p = 0.022). There was no worsening of Unified Parkinson Disease Rating Scale Part III motor score, MMSE, or vital signs. Adverse events (≥10%) with ulotaront vs placebo included hallucinations (24% vs 14%), confusional state (20% vs 14%), dizziness (16% vs 7%), nausea (12% vs 7%), and falls (12% vs 21%).

Discussion

In this exploratory pilot study, ulotaront may decrease PDP symptoms without worsening motor function, particularly in patients with cognitive impairment.

Trial Registration Information

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02969369; submitted: November 17, 2016; study start date: December 31, 2016.

Classification of Evidence

This Class II study was an exploratory pilot study that was underpowered to detect a statistically significant difference between ulotaront and placebo in the treatment of patients with Parkinson disease psychosis without worsening motor function.

Oral ENT-01 Targets Enteric Neurons to Treat Constipation in Parkinson Disease : A Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

Parkinson disease (PD) is associated with α-synuclein (αS) aggregation within enteric neurons. ENT-01 inhibits the formation of αS aggregates and improved constipation in an open-label study in patients with PD.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the safety and efficacy of oral ENT-01 for constipation and neurologic symptoms in patients with PD and constipation.

DESIGN

Randomized, placebo-controlled phase 2b study. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03781791).

SETTING

Outpatient.

PATIENTS

150 patients with PD and constipation.

INTERVENTION

ENT-01 or placebo daily for up to 25 days. After baseline assessment of constipation severity, daily dosing was escalated to the prokinetic dose, the maximum dose (250 mg), or the tolerability limit, followed by a washout period.

MEASUREMENTS

The primary efficacy end point was the number of complete spontaneous bowel movements (CSBMs) per week. Neurologic end points included dementia (assessed using the Mini-Mental State Examination [MMSE]) and psychosis (assessed using the Scale for the Assessment of Positive Symptoms adapted for PD [SAPS-PD]).

RESULTS

The weekly CSBM rate increased from 0.7 to 3.2 in the ENT-01 group versus 0.7 to 1.2 in the placebo group (P < 0.001). Improvement in secondary end points included SBMs (P = 0.002), stool consistency (P < 0.001), ease of passage (P = 0.006), and laxative use (P = 0.041). In patients with dementia, MMSE scores improved by 3.4 points 6 weeks after treatment in the ENT-01 group (n = 14) versus 2.0 points in the placebo group (n = 14). Among patients with psychosis, SAPS-PD scores improved from 6.5 to 1.7 six weeks after treatment in the ENT-01 group (n = 5) and from 6.3 to 4.4 in the placebo group (n = 6). ENT-01 was well tolerated, with no deaths or drug-related serious adverse events. Adverse events were predominantly gastrointestinal, including nausea (34.4% [ENT-01] vs. 5.3% [placebo]; P < 0.001) and diarrhea (19.4% [ENT-01] vs. 5.3% [placebo]; P = 0.016).

LIMITATION

Longer treatment periods need to be investigated in future studies.

CONCLUSION

ENT-01 was safe and significantly improved constipation.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

Enterin, Inc.

Survival Mixture Density Networks

Survival analysis, the art of time-to-event modeling, plays an important role in clinical treatment decisions. Recently, continuous time models built from neural ODEs have been proposed for survival analysis. However, the training of neural ODEs is slow due to the high computational complexity of neural ODE solvers. Here, we propose an efficient alternative for flexible continuous time models, called Survival Mixture Density Networks (Survival MDNs). Survival MDN applies an invertible positive function to the output of Mixture Density Networks (MDNs). While MDNs produce flexible real-valued distributions, the invertible positive function maps the model into the time-domain while preserving a tractable density. Using four datasets, we show that Survival MDN performs better than, or similarly to continuous and discrete time baselines on concordance, integrated Brier score and integrated binomial log-likelihood. Meanwhile, Survival MDNs are also faster than ODE-based models and circumvent binning issues in discrete models.

Learning Invariant Representations with Missing Data

Spurious correlations allow flexible models to predict well during training but poorly on related test populations. Recent work has shown that models that satisfy particular independencies involving correlation-inducing nuisance variables have guarantees on their test performance. Enforcing such independencies requires nuisances to be observed during training. However, nuisances, such as demographics or image background labels, are often missing. Enforcing independence on just the observed data does not imply independence on the entire population. Here we derive MMD estimators used for invariance objectives under missing nuisances. On simulations and clinical data, optimizing through these estimates achieves test performance similar to using estimators that make use of the full data.

Inverse-Weighted Survival Games

Deep models trained through maximum likelihood have achieved state-of-the-art results for survival analysis. Despite this training scheme, practitioners evaluate models under other criteria, such as binary classification losses at a chosen set of time horizons, e.g. Brier score (BS) and Bernoulli log likelihood (BLL). Models trained with maximum likelihood may have poor BS or BLL since maximum likelihood does not directly optimize these criteria. Directly optimizing criteria like BS requires inverse-weighting by the censoring distribution. However, estimating the censoring model under these metrics requires inverse-weighting by the failure distribution. The objective for each model requires the other, but neither are known. To resolve this dilemma, we introduce Inverse-Weighted Survival Games. In these games, objectives for each model are built from re-weighted estimates featuring the other model, where the latter is held fixed during training. When the loss is proper, we show that the games always have the true failure and censoring distributions as a stationary point. This means models in the game do not leave the correct distributions once reached. We construct one case where this stationary point is unique. We show that these games optimize BS on simulations and then apply these principles on real world cancer and critically-ill patient data.

Clinical, biochemical, and hematological characteristics of community-dwelling adolescent and young adult males with anorexia nervosa

OBJECTIVE

Data regarding clinical characteristics in males with AN are limited. We aimed to delineate clinical, biochemical, and hematological features in community-dwelling adolescent and young adult males with AN.

METHOD

A retrospective chart review of electronic medical records from 2000 to 2016 was conducted for 53 males aged 10-23 years old; AN (n = 36) and healthy controls (n = 17) were similar for Tanner stage.

RESULTS

Adolescent and young adult males with AN were diagnosed at a mean age of 15.9 ± 3.0 years. The most prevalent strategy for weight loss (following calorie restriction) was over-exercising. Labs demonstrated polycythemia, leukopenia, and thrombocytopenia, but no electrolyte abnormalities. Compared with healthy controls of similar Tanner stage, males with AN had lower total testosterone levels. A significant proportion of males with AN had traumatic bone fractures.

DISCUSSION

Over-exercising is a common secondary weight loss strategy in males with AN. Testosterone levels are lower than in controls, but electrolyte abnormalities are rare. With enhanced provider awareness, diagnostic delays may be prevented.

A double-blind, randomized, controlled study of two dose strengths of dalfampridine extended release on walking deficits in ischemic stroke

BACKGROUND

Stroke-induced ischemia affects both cortex and underlying white matter. Dalfampridine extended release tablets (D-ER) enhance action potential conduction in demyelinated axons, which may positively affect post-stroke recovery.

OBJECTIVE

Based on promising preliminary data, we compared efficacy of D-ER administered at 7.5 mg or 10 mg with placebo on post-stroke ambulation. Primary study outcome (response) was a ≥20% increase on the 2-minute walk test (2 MinWT) at 12 weeks after first drug administration.

METHODS

This was a multicenter, randomized, placebo-controlled, 3-arm, parallel-group, safety and efficacy trial. After obtaining baseline measures of 2 MinWT, Walk-12, and Timed Up and Go, subjects entered a 2-week, single-blind placebo run-in period and were randomized 1:1:1 to receive 7.5 mg D-ER, 10 mg D-ER, or placebo, dosed twice-daily for 12 weeks. Follow-up evaluations occurred at weeks 14 and 16 when subjects were off study drug.

RESULTS

The study was terminated early with 377 of planned 540 patients enrolled, due to no treatment effect. At week 12, mean increase in distances walked in 2 minutes were similar among the 3 study groups (14.9±40.0 feet; 19.4±39.6 feet; and 20.4±38.3 feet for placebo, 7.5 mg D-ER, and 10 mg D-ER, respectively). The proportion of subjects who showed ≥20% improvement on 2 MinWT at week 12 was 13.5%, 14.0%, and 19.0%, for placebo, 7.5 mg D-ER, and 10 mg D-ER, respectively; these were nonsignificant changes from baseline for all groups.

CONCLUSIONS

D-ER at either a 7.5-mg or 10-mg dose did not significantly increase performance on the 2 MinWT in stroke survivors with gait impairment, although this study was terminated early before full enrollment. (Clinical Trial # NCT02271217).

Understanding Failures in Out-of-Distribution Detection with Deep Generative Models

Deep generative models (dgms) seem a natural fit for detecting out-of-distribution (ood) inputs, but such models have been shown to assign higher probabilities or densities to ood images than images from the training distribution. In this work, we explain why this behavior should be attributed to model misestimation. We first prove that no method can guarantee performance beyond random chance without assumptions on which out-distributions are relevant. We then interrogate the typical set hypothesis, the claim that relevant out-distributions can lie in high likelihood regions of the data distribution, and that ood detection should be defined based on the data distribution's typical set. We highlight the consequences implied by assuming support overlap between in- and out-distributions, as well as the arbitrariness of the typical set for ood detection. Our results suggest that estimation error is a more plausible explanation than the misalignment between likelihood-based ood detection and out-distributions of interest, and we illustrate how even minimal estimation error can lead to ood detection failures, yielding implications for future work in deep generative modeling and ood detection.

Inelastic Scattering of a Photon by a Quantum Phase Slip

Spontaneous decay of a single photon is a notoriously inefficient process in nature irrespective of the frequency range. We report that a quantum phase-slip fluctuation in high-impedance superconducting waveguides can split a single incident microwave photon into a large number of lower-energy photons with a near unit probability. The underlying inelastic photon-photon interaction has no analogs in nonlinear optics. Instead, the measured decay rates are explained without adjustable parameters in the framework of a new model of a quantum impurity in a Luttinger liquid. Our result connects circuit quantum electrodynamics to critical phenomena in two-dimensional boundary quantum field theories, important in the physics of strongly correlated systems. The photon lifetime data represent a rare example of verified and useful quantum many-body simulation.

Barriers and facilitators of implementing an antimicrobial stewardship intervention for urinary tract infection in a long-term care facility

Background

Fifty percent of antibiotic courses in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) are unnecessary, leading to increased risk of harm. Most studies to improve antibiotic prescribing in LTCFs showed modest and unsustained results. We aimed to identify facilitators, barriers and strategies in implementing a urinary tract infection (UTI)-focused antimicrobial stewardship (AS) intervention at a LTCF, with the secondary objective of exploring the pharmacist's potential roles.

Methods

The study used a qualitative descriptive design. Participants attended either a focus group or one-on-one interview. Data were analyzed inductively using a codebook modified in an iterative analytic process. Barrier and facilitator themes were mapped using the capability, opportunity, motivation and behaviour (COM-B) model. Similarly, themes were identified from the transcripts regarding the pharmacist's roles.

Results

Sixteen participants were interviewed. Most barriers and facilitators mapped to the opportunities domain of the COM-B model. The main barrier themes were lack of access, lack of knowledge, ineffective communication, lack of resources and external factors, while the main facilitator themes were education, effective collaboration, good communication, sufficient resources and access. For the pharmacist's role, the barrier themes were ineffective collaboration and communication.

Conclusion

This study supports the importance of tailoring interventions to target factors underlying barriers to behaviour change. At this LTCF, an effective antimicrobial stewardship intervention should incorporate strategies to improve access, knowledge, communication and collaboration in its design, having sufficient resources and addressing external factors to optimize its success and long-term sustainability. Can Pharm J (Ott) 2021;154:xx-xx.

X-CAL: Explicit Calibration for Survival Analysis

Survival analysis models the distribution of time until an event of interest, such as discharge from the hospital or admission to the ICU. When a model's predicted number of events within any time interval is similar to the observed number, it is called well-calibrated. A survival model's calibration can be measured using, for instance, distributional calibration (D-CALIBRATION) [Haider et al., 2020] which computes the squared difference between the observed and predicted number of events within different time intervals. Classically, calibration is addressed in post-training analysis. We develop explicit calibration (X-CAL), which turns D-CALIBRATION into a differentiable objective that can be used in survival modeling alongside maximum likelihood estimation and other objectives. X-CAL allows practitioners to directly optimize calibration and strike a desired balance between predictive power and calibration. In our experiments, we fit a variety of shallow and deep models on simulated data, a survival dataset based on MNIST, on length-of-stay prediction using MIMIC-III data, and on brain cancer data from The Cancer Genome Atlas. We show that the models we study can be miscalibrated. We give experimental evidence on these datasets that X-CAL improves D-CALIBRATION without a large decrease in concordance or likelihood.

Increased incidence of Susac syndrome: a case series study

BACKGROUND

Susac syndrome (SuS) is a rare condition characterized by a clinical triad of sensorineural hearing loss, branch artery occlusion and encephalopathy. This study reports an increased incidence of SuS in Israel. We describe the clinical characteristics of these patients, diagnostic procedures and the use and subsequent outcomes of newly published treatment guidelines.

METHODS

This is a single center retrospective study. Patients who were diagnosed with SuS between July 2017 and August 2018 were enrolled in this study.

RESULTS

Seven patients were diagnosed with SuS according to the diagnostic criteria in a time period of 13 months. The annual incidence was recently evaluated in Austria to be 0.024/100000, therefore, our case series represent at least a 5.4- fold increase in the annual incidence of SuS expected in Israel and a 7-fold increase in the annual incidence expected in our medical center. Mean time from the onset of the symptoms to diagnosis was three weeks and follow-up time was twenty four months. Recent exposure to cytomegalovirus was serologically evident in three patients and one patient had high titer of anti-streptolysin antibody. All patients underwent brain MRI, fluorescein angiography and audiometry. All patients were treated according to the newly recommended guidelines. All patients achieved clinical and radiological stability.

CONCLUSIONS

We report of an increased incidence of SuS in Israel. Infectious serological findings may imply a post infectious mechanism. The use of the recommended diagnostic procedures reduced the time to diagnosis. Newly published treatment guidelines led to favorable clinical outcomes.

Is water-soluble contrast enema examination for integrity of rectal anastomosis necessary prior to ileostomy reversal?

Background and Aim

Routine use of water-soluble contrast enema (WSCE) to assess anastomotic integrity is debated. This study aimed to evaluate the role of WSCE to assess anastomotic integrity following anterior resections (AR) with defunctioning stoma prior to reversal and identify factors to limit its selective use.

Methods

This retrospective study evaluated all WSCE performed over a 7-year period at a high-volume colorectal unit. Risk factors for radiological abnormality/leak, including malignancy, chemoradiotherapy, and immediate postoperative complications, were recorded. A gastrointestinal specialist radiologist and surgeon validated all WSCEs reported as abnormal.

Results

Of the 486 WSCE studies identified, 92 were excluded (repeat studies (n = 51), pediatric cases [n = 2], no AR [n = 39]). A total of 394 WSCE studies were evaluated (260 cancer; 134 noncancer patients); 14% (37/260) of cancer patients and 8% (10/134) of noncancer patients had abnormal studies (P = 0.072). Of the 37 abnormal studies in cancer patients, 73% (27/37) radiological leaks were found, and 41% (n = 11/27) of these patients had postoperative complications. Of the 10 abnormal studies in noncancer patients, 20% (2/10) radiological leaks were found, but none of these patients had postoperative complications. Overall leak rates were 7% (29/394), and rates were significantly higher in cancer patients than noncancer patients (10 vs 2%, P = 0.005).

Conclusion

Routine use of WSCE may not be necessary prior to reversal. WSCE should be selectively used in event of postoperative leak or complications. Noncancer resections are less likely demonstrate a leak.

Bone accrual in oligo-amenorrheic athletes, eumenorrheic athletes and non-athletes

BACKGROUND

Mechanical loading improves bone mineral density (BMD) and strength while decreasing fracture risk. Cross-sectional studies show that exercise advantage is lost in oligo-amenorrheic athletes (OA). Longitudinal studies examining the opposing effects of exercise and hypogonadism on bone are lacking in adolescents/young adults.

OBJECTIVE

Evaluate differences in bone accrual over 12 months in OA, eumenorrheic athletes (EA) and non-athletes (NA). We hypothesized that bone accrual would be lower in OA than EA and NA, with differences most pronounced at non-weight bearing trabecular sites.

METHODS

27 OA, 29 EA, and 22 NA, 14-25 years old, completed 12-months of the prospective study. Athletes were weight-bearing endurance athletes. Subjects were assessed for areal BMD and bone mineral content (BMC) using DXA at the femoral neck, total hip, lumbar spine and whole body (WB). Failure load (a strength estimate) at the distal radius and tibia was assessed using microfinite element analysis of data obtained via high resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HRpQCT). The primary analysis was a comparison of changes in areal BMD, BMC, and failure load across groups over 12-months at the respective sites.

RESULTS

Groups did not differ for baseline age, height or BMI. Percent body fat was lower in both OA and EA compared to NA. OA attained menarche later than EA and NA. Over the follow-up period, OA gained 1.9 ± 2.7 kg of weight compared to 0.5 ± 2.4 kg and 0.8 ± 2.3 kg in EA and NA respectively (p = 0.09); 39% of OA resumed menses. Changes in BMD, BMD Z-scores, and tibial failure load over 12-months did not differ among groups. At follow up, EA had higher femoral neck, hip and WB BMD Z-scores than NA, and higher hip BMD Z-scores than OA (p < 0.05) after adjusting for covariates. At follow-up, radial failure load was lower in OA vs. NA, and tibial failure load lower in OA and NA vs. EA (p ≤ 0.04 for all). Change in weight and fat mass were associated with changes in BMD measures at multiple sites.

CONCLUSION

Despite weight gain and menses recovery in many OA during follow-up, residual deficits persist without catch-up raising concerns for suboptimal peak bone mass acquisition.

Abstract P6-18-30: Phase Ib/II study of capecitabine 7/7 schedule with neratinib in patients with HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer (MBC)

Background: Neratinib (N) is a potent irreversible inhibitor of HER1, HER2, and HER4 and has been shown to have antitumor activity in patients (pts) with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) - positive breast cancer. A previous study of combination of neratinib with capecitabine (X) was associated with &gt; G 3 diarrhea in &gt; 20% of patients. Currently, the NALA study is evaluating this combination of N with X at standard schedule against control. X at 7 day on and 7 day off schedule (7/7) has been shown to be well-tolerated with less ≥G3 toxicities. We are conducting a phase Ib/II study of N with X (7/7) in pts with pretreated HER2+ MBC (NCT03377387). Methods: Eligible pts had HER2+ MBC, normal left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF ≥ 50%); pts can have any and up to 4 prior chemotherapy-based treatments in phase Ib and II portions, respectively. Primary endpoints are to define maximum tolerated dose and efficacy in phase I and phase II portions, respectively. Secondary endpoints include safety and tolerability; exploratory endpoint is to quantify cell-free DNA to correlate with response for phase II portion. There were 4 cohorts for phase Ib with dose level 1 with starting dose of X at 1500 mg BID at 7/7 schedule with N at 240 mg daily. Results: As of July 1, 2018 8 pts have been enrolled in 2 cohorts. The median age is 63y (range: 57-79), and median ECOG is 0 (range: 0-1). 4 patients were treated at dose level 1 and 2 of 4 patients experienced dose-limiting toxicity with G3 diarrhea during cycle 1. Other significant toxicities included G3 hand foot syndrome (n=1), G3 fatigue (n=1) and G3 nausea (n=1). Three pts have now been treated at dose level -1 (X at 1000 mg twice daily 7/7 and N at 240 mg daily) and no ≥ G3 toxicities has been noted. Once MTD is reached, the phase II portion will occur to assess the efficacy and to further establish the safety and tolerability of capecitabine and neratinib at the MTD. Conclusions: The phase Ib/II study combining neratinib and capecitabine 7/7 is ongoing and updated result will be presented.

Citation Format: Wang R, Singh J, Sterlin V, Goldstein M, Lake D, Wong S, Baselga J, Norton L, Dang C. Phase Ib/II study of capecitabine 7/7 schedule with neratinib in patients with HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer (MBC) [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2018 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2018 Dec 4-8; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P6-18-30.

Bone Parameters in Anorexia Nervosa and Athletic Amenorrhea: Comparison of Two Hypothalamic Amenorrhea States

OBJECTIVE

We have reported low bone mineral density (BMD), impaired bone structure, and increased fracture risk in participants with anorexia nervosa (AN) and normal-weight oligoamenorrheic athletes (OAs). However, data directly comparing compartment-specific bone parameters in participants with AN, OAs, and controls are lacking.

DESIGN

A total of 468 female participants 14 to 21.9 years old were included: 269 with AN, 104 OAs, and 95 normal-weight eumenorrheic controls. Dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry was used to assess areal BMD (aBMD) of the whole body less head (WBLH), spine, and hip. High-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography was used to assess volumetric BMD (vBMD), bone geometry, and structure at the non-weight-bearing distal radius and weight-bearing distal tibia.

RESULTS

Participants with AN had lower WBLH and hip aBMD z scores than OAs and controls (P < 0.0001). Participants with AN and OAs had lower spine aBMD z scores than controls (P < 0.01). At the radius, total and cortical vBMD, percentage cortical area, and thickness were lower in the AN and OA groups than in controls (P ≤ 0.04); trabecular vBMD was lower in participants with AN than controls. At the tibia, participants with AN had lower measures for most parameters compared with OAs and controls (P < 0.05); OAs had lower cortical vBMD than controls (P = 0.002). Participants with AN and OAs had higher fracture rates than controls. Stress fracture prevalence was highest in OAs (P < 0.0001); nonstress fracture prevalence was highest in participants with AN (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

AN is deleterious to bone at all sites and both bone compartments. A high stress fracture rate in OAs, who have comparable WBLH and hip aBMD measures to controls, indicates that BMD in these women may need to be even higher to avoid fractures.

Axial Length, Refractive Error, and Keratometry in Patients with Branch Retinal Vein Occlusion

Purpose

To evaluate ocular parameters that may predispose to the development of branch retinal vein occlusion (BRVO).

METHODS

This prospective study included patients with unilateral BRVO evaluated in the authors' clinic. The mean period from the acute phase was 2.29 ±1.57 years (range 1–6 years). All patients underwent a complete ophthalmologic examination including subjective refraction, axial length measurements, and keratometry readings. The fellow eye served as a control in each patient. The variables of interest were compared between the affected eye and the fellow eye using the parametric t-test and the nonparametric Wilcoxon test.

Results

Twenty-four consecutive patients (14 women, 10 men, mean age 62.4 years) were included in the study. The mean axial length in the affected eye was significantly shorter compared to the mean fellow eye length. No difference was found between the two eyes in mean subjective refraction or mean keratometry readings.

CONCLUSIONS

The authors found that eyes with BRVO have a shorter axial length compared to the fellow eye in the same patient.

Evaluating the peptide structure prediction capabilities of a purely ab-initio method

DEEPSAM is a relatively new global optimization algorithm aimed to predict the structure of bio-molecules from sequence, without any additional preliminary assumption. It is an evolutionary algorithm whose mutation operators are built by hybridizing the diffusion equation method, molecular dynamics simulated annealing, and a quasi-Newton local minimization method. The goal of this study was to evaluate the structure prediction capabilities of DEEPSAM by running it upon NMR structures of linear peptides (10-20 residues). The results indicate that DEEPSAM successfully predicted the conformations of these peptides, using modest computing resources.

The impact of CT head scans on ED management and length of stay in bizarre behavior patients

METHODS

A 5-year retrospective chart review was conducted at 3 EDs. Inclusion criteria were patients ≥18years old triaged as "mental health - bizarre behavior" (deviation from normal cognitive behaviour with no obvious cause) with a CT head scan ordered in the ED. Exclusion criteria were focal neurologic deficits on exam, alternative medical etiology (i.e. delirium, trauma) and/or pre-existing CNS disease. Clinical, demographic and administrative data were extracted with 10% of charts independently reviewed by an Emergency Physician for inter-rater reliability.

RESULTS

266 cases met study criteria. Population demographics: 49% percent female, average age 51years old, 28% homeless, 58% arrived by police or ambulance. CT head results: 1 (0.4%) case with possible acute findings, 105 (39%) with incidental findings (i.e. cerebral atrophy) that did not impact clinical management. Average time to physician assessment was 1:48 (hour:min) (sd 1:11), time to CT completion was 5:05 (sd 7:28) and an average delay of 3:17 awaiting results. Subgroup analysis revealed a net increase in ED length of stay (ED LOS) of 5:02 from obtaining neuroimaging. 85% of patients were referred to a consultant, 92% were to psychiatry.

CONCLUSIONS

CT head results prolonged ED LOS, delayed patient disposition and did not change the patient's clinical management. A prospective trial for ordering CT head scans in these patients is warranted.

Comparative study of magnetic resonance defaecography and evacuation proctography in the evaluation of obstructed defaecation

AIM

Obstructed defaecation syndrome is a common condition of multifactorial aetiology and requires specialized evaluation. Accurate and reproducible pelvic floor imaging is imperative for multidisciplinary decision-making. Evacuation proctography (EP) and magnetic resonance defaecography (MRD) are the main imaging modalities used to assess dynamic pelvic floor function. The aim of this prospective study was to compare the findings and acceptability of MRD and EP in the same cohort of patients.

METHOD

This was a prospective comparative study of MRD vs EP in 55 patients with obstructed defaecation syndrome in a single National Health Service Foundation Trust.

RESULTS

Fifty-five patients were recruited and underwent both EP and MRD. Detection rates for rectocoele were similar (82% vs 73%, P = 0.227), but EP revealed a significantly higher number of trapping rectocoeles compared to MRD (75% vs 31%, P < 0.001). EP detected more rectal intussusceptions than MRD (56% vs 35%, P = 0.023). MRD appeared to underestimate the size of the identified rectocoele, although it detected a significant number of anatomical abnormalities in the middle and anterior pelvic compartment not seen on EP (1.8% enterocoele, 9% peritoneocoele and 20% cystocoele). Patients achieved higher rates of expulsion of rectal contrast during EP compared to MRD, but this difference was not significant (76% vs 64% in MRD, P = 0.092). Of the two studies, patients preferred MRD.

CONCLUSIONS

MRD provides a global assessment of pelvic floor function and anatomical abnormality. MRD is better tolerated by patients but it is not as sensitive as EP in detecting trapping rectocoeles and intussusceptions.

Pricing the urban cooling benefits of solar panel deployment in Sydney, Australia

Cities import energy, which in combination with their typically high solar absorption and low moisture availability generates the urban heat island effect (UHI). The UHI, combined with human-induced warming, makes our densely populated cities particularly vulnerable to climate change. We examine the utility of solar photovoltaic (PV) system deployment on urban rooftops to reduce the UHI, and we price one potential value of this impact. The installation of PV systems over Sydney, Australia reduces summer maximum temperatures by up to 1 °C because the need to import energy is offset by local generation. This offset has a direct environmental benefit, cooling local maximum temperatures, but also a direct economic value in the energy generated. The indirect benefit associated with the temperature changes is between net AUD$230,000 and $3,380,000 depending on the intensity of PV systems deployment. Therefore, even very large PV installations will not offset global warming, but could generate enough energy to negate the need to import energy, and thereby reduce air temperatures. The energy produced, and the benefits of cooling beyond local PV installation sites, would reduce the vulnerability of urban populations and infrastructure to temperature extremes.

IgG4-related Disease Presenting as a Pancreatic Mass and Bilateral Lacrimal Gland Swelling

IgG4-related disease is characterized by multi-system inflammation and possible elevation in serum immunoglobulin-G4 level. Treatment regimens include glucocorticoids, disease-modifying anti-rheumatic agents and recently, rituximab infusions have been reported to be effective in treatment-refractory disease. We present a case of a 64-year-old male presenting with acute abdominal pain and scleral icterus. An abdominal ultrasound demonstrated extensive biliary ductal dilatation. A computed tomography (CT) scan and a magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP) revealed a 4.8 cm pancreatic head mass. He underwent an exploratory laparotomy, and a pathologic examination of the mass revealed a dense lymphoplasmacytic infiltrate. The patient’s IgG subclass 2 level was elevated. A review of the patient’s medical records revealed that, in 1992, he presented with bilateral periorbital discomfort not severe enough to require intervention. In 2006, he presented with bilateral periorbital swelling and discomfort. A magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan showed gross enlargement of the lacrimal glands, and a biopsy revealed a dense lymphoplasmacytic infiltrate. He was treated with corticosteroids, cyclosporine and methotrexate. The regimen was repeated in 2009 for recurrent symptoms. Hence, on our encounter, a diagnosis of IgG4-related disease was made and he was treated with rituximab that resulted in complete remission.

Aflibercept as a Second Line Therapy for Neovascular Age Related Macular Degeneration in Israel (ASLI) study

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to evaluate an early switch to aflibecept in eyes with neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nvAMD) showing partial or lack of response for initial therapy with bevacizumab.MethodsThe Aflibercept as a Second Line Therapy for Neovascular Age Related Macular Degeneration in Israel (ASLI) was a prospective, multicenter, single-arm clinical trial. Eyes with nvAMD having incomplete response to 3-9 prior bevacizumab injections were recruited. Three monthly intravitreal aflibercept (2 mg) injections were administered, followed by two bi-monthly injections and a final examination at week 28. An optional injection was allowed at week 20.ResultsForty-seven eyes of 46 patients (mean±SD age 76±8 years) were recruited. The mean number of prior bevacizumab injections was 5.5±2.9. The mean visual acuity improved from 60.3±10 ETDRS letters at baseline to 63.1±15 letters at week 28 (P=0.02, paired t-test). The central subfield thickness (CST) reduced from 409±127 micron at baseline to 330±110 microns at week 4 (P=0.0002; paired t-test), and 277±70 microns at week 28 (P=0.00002; paired t-test). Twenty-two eyes had three to five prior bevacizumab injections (mean 5.1±0.7), and 25 eyes had six to nine prior injections (7.32±1.2). Both groups had reduced CST from baseline to week 28 (P=0.0004 and P=0.0007; paired t-test, respectively). Thirty-five (75%) eyes required the optional additional aflibercept injection at week 20.ConclusionsThe ASLI study demonstrated improved BCVA and reduced CST following an early switch to aflibercept therapy in eyes with prior incomplete response to initial therapy with three to nine bevacizumab injections.

The FIELDS Instrument Suite for Solar Probe Plus: Measuring the Coronal Plasma and Magnetic Field, Plasma Waves and Turbulence, and Radio Signatures of Solar Transients

NASA's Solar Probe Plus (SPP) mission will make the first in situ measurements of the solar corona and the birthplace of the solar wind. The FIELDS instrument suite on SPP will make direct measurements of electric and magnetic fields, the properties of in situ plasma waves, electron density and temperature profiles, and interplanetary radio emissions, amongst other things. Here, we describe the scientific objectives targeted by the SPP/FIELDS instrument, the instrument design itself, and the instrument concept of operations and planned data products.

History matching of a complex epidemiological model of human immunodeficiency virus transmission by using variance emulation

Complex stochastic models are commonplace in epidemiology, but their utility depends on their calibration to empirical data. History matching is a (pre)calibration method that has been applied successfully to complex deterministic models. In this work, we adapt history matching to stochastic models, by emulating the variance in the model outputs, and therefore accounting for its dependence on the model's input values. The method proposed is applied to a real complex epidemiological model of human immunodeficiency virus in Uganda with 22 inputs and 18 outputs, and is found to increase the efficiency of history matching, requiring 70% of the time and 43% fewer simulator evaluations compared with a previous variant of the method. The insight gained into the structure of the human immunodeficiency virus model, and the constraints placed on it, are then discussed.

Longitudinal Study of the Effects of an Adjustable Ergonomic Keyboard on Upper Body Musculoskeletal Symptoms

A longitudinal study assessed the differential impact of standard and adjustable ergonomic keyboards on musculoskeletal symptoms among 71 computer users over a six month period. A total of 73 subjects participated: 34 subjects used a standard, flat keyboard and 37 used an adjustable, ergonomic keyboard. Subjects completed weekly surveys of perceived keyboard comfort, and body discomfort, along with other items. The ergonomic keyboard was rated favorably and for users there were significantly improvements neck, shoulder and arm comfort.