The Value of Elderly Disease Prevention

Simulating the Fiscal Impact of Anti-Obesity Medications as an Obesity Reduction Strategy

While substantial public health investment in anti-smoking initiatives has had demonstrated benefits on health and fiscal outcomes, similar investment in reducing obesity has not been undertaken, despite the substantial burden obesity places on society. Anti-obesity medications (AOMs) are poorly prescribed despite evidence that weight loss is not sustained using other strategies alone.

We used a simulation model to estimate the potential impact of 100% uptake of AOMs on Medicare and Medicaid spending, disability payments, and taxes collected relative to status quo with negligible AOM use. Relative to status quo, AOM use simulation would result in Medicare and Medicaid savings of $231.5 billion and $188.8 billion respectively over 75 years. Government tax revenues would increase by $452.8 billion. Overall, the net benefit would be $746.6 billion. Anti-smoking efforts have had substantial benefits for society. A similar investment in obesity reduction, including broad use of AOMs, should be considered.

Lifetime benefits of early detection and treatment of diabetic kidney disease

OBJECTIVES

Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) is a frequent complication of diabetes with potentially devastating consequences that may be prevented or delayed. This study aimed to estimate the health and economic benefit of earlier diagnosis and treatment of DKD.

METHODS

Life expectancy and medical spending for people with diabetes were modeled using The Health Economics Medical Innovation Simulation (THEMIS). THEMIS uses data from the Health and Retirement Study to model cohorts of individuals over age 50 to project population-level lifetime health and economic outcomes. DKD status was imputed based on diagnoses and laboratory values in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. We simulated the implementation of a new biomarker identifying people with diabetes at an elevated risk of DKD and DKD patients at risk of rapid progression.

RESULTS

Compared to baseline, the prevalence of DKD declined 5.1% with a novel prognostic biomarker test, while the prevalence of diabetes with stage 5 chronic kidney disease declined 3.0%. Consequently, people with diabetes gained 0.2 years in life expectancy, while per-capita annual medical spending fell by 0.3%. The estimated cost was $12,796 per life-year gained and $25,842 per quality-adjusted life-year.

CONCLUSIONS

A biomarker test that allows earlier treatment reduces DKD prevalence and slows DKD progression, thereby increasing life expectancy among people with diabetes while raising healthcare spending by less than one percent.

Mathematical Modeling in Tobacco Control Research: Initial Results From a Systematic Review

OBJECTIVES

The US Food and Drug Administration has expressed interest in using mathematical models to evaluate potential tobacco policies. The goal of this systematic review was to synthesize data from tobacco control studies that employ mathematical models.

METHODS

We searched five electronic databases on July 1, 2013 to identify published studies that used a mathematical model to project a tobacco-related outcome and developed a data extraction form based on the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices. We developed an organizational framework to categorize these studies and identify models employed across multiple papers. We synthesized results qualitatively, providing a descriptive synthesis of included studies.

RESULTS

The 263 studies in this review were heterogeneous with regard to their methodologies and aims. We used the organizational framework to categorize each study according to its objective and map the objective to a model outcome. We identified two types of study objectives (trend and policy/intervention) and three types of model outcomes (change in tobacco use behavior, change in tobacco-related morbidity or mortality, and economic impact). Eighteen models were used across 118 studies.

CONCLUSIONS

This paper extends conventional systematic review methods to characterize a body of literature on mathematical modeling in tobacco control. The findings of this synthesis can inform the development of new models and the improvement of existing models, strengthening the ability of researchers to accurately project future tobacco-related trends and evaluate potential tobacco control policies and interventions. These findings can also help decision-makers to identify and become oriented with models relevant to their work.

A coordinated national model for diabetes prevention: linking health systems to an evidence-based community program

BACKGROUND

Twenty-six million U.S. adults have diabetes, and 79 million have prediabetes. A 2002 Diabetes Prevention Program research study proved the effectiveness of a lifestyle intervention that yielded a 58% reduction in conversion to type 2 diabetes. However, cost per participant was high, complicating efforts to scale up the program.

PURPOSE

UnitedHealth Group (UHG) and the YMCA of the USA, in collaboration with the CDC, sought to develop the infrastructure and business case to scale the congressionally authorized National Diabetes Prevention Program nationwide. Emphasis was placed on developing a model that maintained fidelity to the original 2002 Diabetes Prevention Program research study and could be deployed for a lower cost per participant while yielding similar outcomes.

DESIGN

The UHG created the business case and technical and operational infrastructure necessary for nationwide dissemination of the YMCA's Diabetes Prevention Program (YMCA's DPP), as part of the National Diabetes Prevention Program. The YMCA's DPP is a group-based model of 16 core sessions with monthly follow-up delivered by trained lifestyle coaches.

SETTING/PARTICIPANTS

A variety of mechanisms were used to identify, screen, and encourage enrollment for people with prediabetes into the YMCA's DPP.

INTERVENTION

Substantial investments were made in relationship building, business planning, technology, development, and operational design to deliver an effective and affordable 12-month program. The program intervention was conducted July 2010-December 2011. Data were collected on the participants over a 15-month period between September 2010 and December 2011. Data were analyzed in February 2012.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The main outcome measures were infrastructure (communities involved and personnel trained); engagement (screening and enrollment of people with prediabetes); program outcomes (attendance and weight loss); and service delivery cost of the intervention.

RESULTS

In less than 2 years, the YMCA's DPP was effectively scaled to 46 communities in 23 states. More than 500 YMCA Lifestyle Coaches were trained. The program enrolled 2369 participants, and 1723 participants completed the core program at an average service-delivery cost of about $400 each. For those individuals completing the program, average weight loss was about 5%. UHG anticipates that within 3 years, savings from reduced medical spending will outweigh initial costs.

CONCLUSIONS

Large-scale prevention efforts can be scalable and sustainable with collaboration, health information technology, community-based delivery of evidence-based interventions, and novel payment structures that incentivize efficiency and outcomes linked to better health and lower future costs.

Benefits associated with achieving optimal risk factor levels for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in older men

BACKGROUND

Most incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) occurs after patients reach the age of 65. The additive benefits of aggressive risk factor management with advancing age are not well established.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the relationship between control of four modifiable risk factors (smoking, non-high density lipoprotein cholesterol, blood pressure, and aspirin use) and risk of CVD in a primary prevention population of older men.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

U.S. male physicians from the Physicians' Health Study (n = 4182; an epidemiologic follow-up of a randomized trial of aspirin and beta-carotene) who in 1997 were ≥ 65 years, free of CVD and diabetes, and had a blood sample on file were studied. Cox proportional hazard models were adjusted for age and competing causes of death. The first of any CVD event, defined as cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, angina, coronary revascularization, nonfatal stroke, transient ischemic attack, carotid artery surgery, and other peripheral vascular disease surgery, was measured.

RESULTS

Mean follow-up was 9.3 years, mean age was 73 years, and 96% were nonsmokers. Compared with when 4 of 4 risk factors were controlled (6.0% of participants), control of 0 of 4 risk factors almost quadrupled the risk of CVD (0.4% of participants; event rate 41.2%; hazard ratio [HR] 3.83, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.72-8.55); control of 1 of 4 risk factors more than doubled the risk (14.2% of participants; HR 2.53, 95% CI 1.80-3.57); control of 2 of 4 risk factors almost doubled the risk (43.8% of participants; HR 1.94, 95% CI 1.41-2.69), and those with control of 3 of 4 risk factors also were at increased risk (35.6% of participants; HR 1.80, 95% CI 1.30-2.50). Control of each additional risk factor was associated with greater cardiovascular protection (P for trend P = .002). Depending on the number of risk factors controlled, the number-needed to control to prevent one CVD event ranged from 5 to 22.

CONCLUSION

Control of 4 treatable risk factors (nonsmoking, control of non-high density lipoprotein cholesterol and blood pressure, and aspirin use) was associated with substantial protection against incident cardiovascular events in older men even after adjustment for competing causes of mortality.

Obesity in Eastern Europe: an overview of its health and economic implications

AIMS

To assess the evolution and patterns of obesity in countries of the WHO European Region with a particular focus on the Eastern European countries, and to discuss the health and economic implications of obesity for those countries.

METHODS

The available data on overweight and obesity in children and adults for the countries of the WHO European countries were collated from the International Obesity TaskForce database and considered in the light of estimates for the costs of obesity-related ill health.

RESULTS

Overweight and obesity in most countries of Europe show rising secular trends, and are predicted to continue rising if not addressed. Estimates of the costs to the health services and to economic productivity indicate that some countries may find it hard to cope with the burden of obesity: up to 6% of total health care costs and as much in indirect costs of lost productivity could be attributed to obesity and its associated illnesses.

CONCLUSIONS

Transition, despite the many benefits it has undoubtedly conferred to the population living in the Region, has also entailed the collateral damage of a fast growing obesity challenge. Policy-makers in the new and candidate EU countries as well as other countries of the European Region can learn from the negative Western European and global experience, act now to stem the obesity epidemic from further developing and in so doing, reduce the substantial economic losses associated with obesity. Local, national and international strategies will be needed to combat the problem.