Can Artificial Intelligence Make Screening Faster, More Accurate, and More Accessible?

Identification of the Optimal Model for the Prediction of Diabetic Retinopathy in Chinese Rural Population: Handan Eye Study

BACKGROUND

To identify an optimal model for diabetic retinopathy (DR) prediction in Chinese rural population by establishing and comparing different algorithms based on the data from Handan Eye Study (HES).

METHODS

Five algorithms, including multivariable logistic regression (MLR), classification and regression trees (C&RT), support vector machine (SVM), random forests (RF), and gradient boosting machine (GBM), were used to establish DR prediction models with HES data. The performance of the models was assessed based on the adjusted area under the ROC curve (AUROC), sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy.

RESULTS

The data on 4752 subjects were used to build the DR prediction model, and among them, 198 patients were diagnosed with DR. The age of the included subjects ranged from 30 to 85 years old, with an average age of 50.9 years (SD = 3.04). The kappa coefficient of the diagnosis between the two ophthalmologists was 0.857. The MLR model revealed that blood glucose, systolic blood pressure, and body mass index were independently associated with the development of DR. The AUROC obtained by GBM (0.952), RF (0.949), and MLR (0.936) was similar and statistically larger than that of CART (0.682) and SVM (0.765).

CONCLUSIONS

The MLR model exhibited excellent prediction performance and visible equation and thus was the optimal model for DR prediction. Therefore, the MLR model may have the potential to serve as a complementary screening tool for the early detection of DR, especially in remote and underserved areas.

Barriers and facilitators to diabetic retinopathy screening within Australian primary care

Background

Despite recent incentives through Medicare (Australia’s universal health insurance scheme) to increase retinal screening rates in primary care, comprehensive diabetic retinopathy (DR) screening has not been reached in Australia. The current study aimed to identify key factors affecting the delivery of diabetic retinopathy (DR) screening in Australian general practices.

Methods

A descriptive qualitative study involving in-depth interviews was carried out from November 2019 to March 2020. Using purposive snowballing sampling, 15 general practitioners (GPs) were recruited from urban and rural general practices in New South Wales and Western Australia. A semi-structured interview guide was used to collect data from participants. All interviews were conducted over the phone by one facilitator, and each interview lasted up to 45 min. The Socio-Ecological Model was used to inform the content of the interview topic guides and subsequent data analysis. Recorded data were transcribed verbatim, and thematic analysis was conducted to identify and classify recurrent themes.

Results

Of 15 GPs interviewed, 13 were male doctors, and the mean age was 54.7 ± 15.5 years. Seven participants were practising in urban areas, while eight were practising in regional or remote areas. All participants had access to a direct ophthalmoscope, but none owned retinal cameras. None of the participants reported performing DR screening. Only three participants were aware of the Medicare Benefits Schedule (MBS) items 12,325 and 12,326 that allow GPs to bill for retinal screening. Seven themes, a combination of facilitators and barriers, emerged from interviews with the GPs. Despite the strong belief in their role in managing chronic diseases, barriers such as costs of retinal cameras, time constraints, lack of skills to make DR diagnosis, and unawareness of Medicare incentives for non-mydriatic retinal photography made it difficult to conduct DR screening in general practice. However, several enabling strategies to deliver DR screening within primary care include increasing GPs’ access to continuing professional development, subsidising the cost of retinal cameras, and the need for a champion ace to take the responsibility of retinal photography.

Conclusion

This study identified essential areas at the system level that require addressing to promote the broader implementation of DR screening, in particular, a nationwide awareness campaign to maximise the use of MBS items, improve GPs’ competency, and subsidise costs of the retinal cameras for small and rural general practices.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12875-021-01586-7.

Health care cost and benefits of artificial intelligence-assisted population-based glaucoma screening for the elderly in remote areas of China: a cost-offset analysis

Background

Population-based screening was essential for glaucoma management. Although various studies have investigated the cost-effectiveness of glaucoma screening, policymakers facing with uncontrollably growing total health expenses were deeply concerned about the potential financial consequences of glaucoma screening. This present study was aimed to explore the impact of glaucoma screening with artificial intelligence (AI) automated diagnosis from a budgetary standpoint in Changjiang county, China.

Methods

A Markov model based on health care system’s perspective was adapted from previously published studies to predict disease progression and healthcare costs. A cohort of 19,395 individuals aged 65 and above were simulated over a 15-year timeframe. Fur illustrative purpose, we only considered primary angle-closure glaucoma (PACG) in this study. Prevalence, disease progression risks between stages, compliance rates were obtained from publish studies. We did a meta-analysis to estimate diagnostic performance of AI automated diagnosis system from fundus image. Screening costs were provided by the Changjiang screening programme, whereas treatment costs were derived from electronic medical records from two county hospitals. Main outcomes included the number of PACG patients and health care costs. Cost-offset analysis was employed to compare projected health outcomes and medical care costs under the screening with what they would have been without screening. One-way sensitivity analysis was conducted to quantify uncertainties around model results.

Results

Among people aged 65 and above in Changjiang county, it was predicted that there were 1940 PACG patients under the AI-assisted screening scenario, compared with 2104 patients without screening in 15 years’ time. Specifically, the screening would reduce patients with primary angle closure suspect by 7.7%, primary angle closure by 8.8%, PACG by 16.7%, and visual blindness by 33.3%. Due to early diagnosis and treatment under the screening, healthcare costs surged dramatically to $107,761.4 dollar in the first year and then were constantly declining over time, while without screening costs grew from $14,759.8 in the second year until peaking at $17,900.9 in the 9th year. However, cost-offset analysis revealed that additional healthcare costs resulted from the screening could not be offset by decreased disease progression. The 5-, 10-, and 15-year accumulated incremental costs of screening versus no screening were estimated to be $396,362.8, $424,907.9, and $434,903.2, respectively. As a result, the incremental cost per PACG of any stages prevented was $1464.3.

Conclusions

This study represented the first attempt to address decision-maker’s budgetary concerns when adopting glaucoma screening by developing a Markov prediction model to project health outcomes and costs. Population screening combined with AI automated diagnosis for PACG in China were able to reduce disease progression risks. However, the excess costs of screening could never be offset by reduction in disease progression. Further studies examining the cost-effectiveness or cost-utility of AI-assisted glaucoma screening were needed.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-11097-w.

Artificial intelligence in gastric cancer: a translational narrative review

Increasing clinical contributions and novel techniques have been made by artificial intelligence (AI) during the last decade. The role of AI is increasingly recognized in cancer research and clinical application. Cancers like gastric cancer, or stomach cancer, are ideal testing grounds to see if early undertakings of applying AI to medicine can yield valuable results. There are numerous concepts derived from AI, including machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL). ML is defined as the ability to learn data features without being explicitly programmed. It arises at the intersection of data science and computer science and aims at the efficiency of computing algorithms. In cancer research, ML has been increasingly used in predictive prognostic models. DL is defined as a subset of ML targeting multilayer computation processes. DL is less dependent on the understanding of data features than ML. Therefore, the algorithms of DL are much more difficult to interpret than ML, even potentially impossible. This review discussed the role of AI in the diagnostic, therapeutic and prognostic advances of gastric cancer. Models like convolutional neural networks (CNNs) or artificial neural networks (ANNs) achieved significant praise in their application. There is much more to be fully covered across the clinical administration of gastric cancer. Despite growing efforts, adapting AI to improving diagnoses for gastric cancer is a worthwhile venture. The information yield can revolutionize how we approach gastric cancer problems. Though integration might be slow and labored, it can be given the ability to enhance diagnosing through visual modalities and augment treatment strategies. It can grow to become an invaluable tool for physicians. AI not only benefits diagnostic and therapeutic outcomes, but also reshapes perspectives over future medical trajectory.

Validation of Deep Convolutional Neural Network-based algorithm for detection of diabetic retinopathy - Artificial intelligence versus clinician for screening

Purpose:

Deep learning is a newer and advanced subfield in artificial intelligence (AI). The aim of our study is to validate a machine-based algorithm developed based on deep convolutional neural networks as a tool for screening to detect referable diabetic retinopathy (DR).

Methods:

An AI algorithm to detect DR was validated at our hospital using an internal dataset consisting of 1,533 macula-centered fundus images collected retrospectively and an external validation set using Methods to Evaluate Segmentation and Indexing Techniques in the field of Retinal Ophthalmology (MESSIDOR) dataset. Images were graded by two retina specialists as any DR, prompt referral (moderate nonproliferative diabetic retinopathy (NPDR) or above or presence of macular edema) and sight-threatening DR/STDR (severe NPDR or above) and compared with AI results. Sensitivity, specificity, and area under curve (AUC) for both internal and external validation sets for any DR detection, prompt referral, and STDR were calculated. Interobserver agreement using kappa value was calculated for both the sets and two out of three agreements for DR grading was considered as ground truth to compare with AI results.

Results:

In the internal validation set, the overall sensitivity and specificity was 99.7% and 98.5% for Any DR detection and 98.9% and 94.84%for Prompt referral respectively. The AUC was 0.991 and 0.969 for any DR detection and prompt referral respectively. The agreement between two observers was 99.5% and 99.2% for any DR detection and prompt referral with a kappa value of 0.94 and 0.96, respectively. In the external validation set (MESSIDOR 1), the overall sensitivity and specificity was 90.4% and 91.0% for any DR detection and 94.7% and 97.4% for prompt referral, respectively. The AUC was. 907 and. 960 for any DR detection and prompt referral, respectively. The agreement between two observers was 98.5% and 97.8% for any DR detection and prompt referral with a kappa value of 0.971 and 0.980, respectively.

Conclusion:

With increasing diabetic population and growing demand supply gap in trained resources, AI is the future for early identification of DR and reducing blindness. This can revolutionize telescreening in ophthalmology, especially where people do not have access to specialized health care.

Essentials of a Robust Deep Learning System for Diabetic Retinopathy Screening: A Systematic Literature Review

This systematic review was performed to identify the specifics of an optimal diabetic retinopathy deep learning algorithm, by identifying the best exemplar research studies of the field, whilst highlighting potential barriers to clinical implementation of such an algorithm. Searching five electronic databases (Embase, MEDLINE, Scopus, PubMed, and the Cochrane Library) returned 747 unique records on 20 December 2019. Predetermined inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied to the search results, resulting in 15 highest-quality publications. A manual search through the reference lists of relevant review articles found from the database search was conducted, yielding no additional records. A validation dataset of the trained deep learning algorithms was used for creating a set of optimal properties for an ideal diabetic retinopathy classification algorithm. Potential limitations to the clinical implementation of such systems were identified as lack of generalizability, limited screening scope, and data sovereignty issues. It is concluded that deep learning algorithms in the context of diabetic retinopathy screening have reported impressive results. Despite this, the potential sources of limitations in such systems must be evaluated carefully. An ideal deep learning algorithm should be clinic-, clinician-, and camera-agnostic; complying with the local regulation for data sovereignty, storage, privacy, and reporting; whilst requiring minimum human input.

Multivariable Logistic Regression And Back Propagation Artificial Neural Network To Predict Diabetic Retinopathy

BACKGROUND

Monitoring and prediction of diabetic retinopathy (DR) is necessary in patients with diabetes for early discovery and timely treatment of disease. We aimed to analyze the association between DR and biochemical and metabolic parameters, and develop a predictive model for DR.

METHODS

A total of 530 Chinese residents including 423 with type 2 diabetes (T2D) aged 18 years or older participated in this study. The association between DR and biochemical and metabolic parameters was analyzed by the univariate and multivariable logistic regression (MLR). According to the MLR results, we developed a back propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) model by selecting tan-sigmoid as the transfer function of the hidden layers nodes, and pure-line of the output layer nodes, with training goal of 0.5×10^-5.

RESULTS

There were 51 (9.6%) diabetic participants with DR. After univariate and MLR analysis, duration of diabetes, waist to hip ratio, HbA₁c and family history of diabetes were independently associated with the presence of DR (all P < 0.05). Based on these parameters, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for the BP-ANN model was significantly higher than that by MLR (0.84 vs. 0.77, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Our evaluation demonstrated the potential role of BP-ANN model to identify DR in screening practice. The presence of DR was well predictable using the proposed BP-ANN model based on four related parameters (duration of diabetes, waist to hip ratio, HbA₁c and family history of diabetes).