Partnership dynamics and entry into parenthood: Comparison of Finnish birth cohorts 1969-2000

During the past decade, the stability of close-to-replacement-level fertility ended in all Nordic countries, with its decline to the lowest level in Finland. It is unclear whether and how partnership dynamics have changed, and whether they play a role in fertility developments. We focus on the patterns and associations between the formation and stability of co-residential partnerships and first birth among Finnish women and men, and on whether and how these associations have changed across birth cohorts. We utilise total population register data on persons born between 1969 and 2000 in Finland, and adopt the event history method. Our results indicate that half of the women formed their first co-residential partnerships by the age of 22 years. Cohorts born in the early 1990s were the first to delay the formation of non-marital first partnerships. In contrast, first births are increasingly postponed, and the proportion of women and men, who become parents, has declined across recent cohorts. Among men, we observe higher median ages for family formation events and higher likelihoods of not forming a family. As a result of fertility decline and increase in partnership instability, for the first time, the probability of separation is higher than that of first births among partnered women born in the 1990s. Our findings show that at a behavioural level, the once close link between partnership formation and parenthood has progressively eroded across consecutive birth cohorts. Together with the ongoing tendency to delay first births, decreasing partnership stability, and first indications of delaying partnership formation, the potential of witnessing a marked increase of fertility levels in the near future is delimited. Our study's results contribute to a better understanding of the demographic mechanisms behind the decline in fertility in Finland, over the recent decade.

The prospective power of personality for childbearing: a longitudinal study based on data from Germany

The link between personality and fertility is relatively underexplored. Moreover, there are only a few studies focusing on the prospective association between personality and childbearing. However, none of these studies considered the Five-Factor Model (FFM), which is the most widely accepted measurement of personality. The present study fills this gap by examining the prospective association between the FFM and the hazard ratio of the first and the second childbirth in Germany. Analyses are based on recent data (2005–2017) from the Socio-economic Panel Study. Cox proportional hazard models are applied. Findings demonstrate that personality traits are associated with fertility. Extraversion is positively linked with the first childbirth, but is negatively associated with the second childbirth. These findings are mainly driven by males. Agreeableness is positively linked with the first childbirth across the total sample. Again, this correlation is mainly based on the findings for men, among whom a positive association between agreeableness and the second childbirth is also found. Among women, personality does not seem to be linked with the first childbirth. However, the risk of having a second child is found to be negatively associated with conscientiousness. My study adds to the current understanding of the personality–fertility association by exploring the impact of personality trait scores from the FFM on subsequent fertility behavior. However, further research is needed on the association between personality and childbearing; on the mechanisms through which personality affects fertility; and on how these links differ across cultures, among higher parities, and for births after re-partnering.

Less Partnering, Less Children, or Both? Analysis of the Drivers of First Birth Decline in Finland Since 2010

In the 2010s, fertility has declined in the Nordic countries, most strikingly in Finland, and first births drive the decline. It remains unclear whether this decline results from decreased fertility within unions, changing union dynamics, or both. Thus, we investigated changes in the union–first birth dynamics from 2000 through 2018 in Finland using full-coverage population register data and an incidence-based multistate model. To do so, we calculated the yearly age-specific transition probabilities across states of single, cohabitation, marriage, and first births among 15- to 45-year-old childless men and women. We found lower fertility rates in unions after 2010, increasing dissolution rates amongst cohabiting couples, and long-term declines in the transition to marriage. Counterfactual simulations showed that, for the decline in first births since 2010, fertility within unions matters more (three-quarters) than union dynamics (one-quarter): that is, lower fertility in cohabitating and married individuals explained 42% and 13% of the decline, respectively, and decreasing fertility rates among couples entering cohabitation explained a further 17%. Decreasing marriage (19%) and cohabitation rates (2–4%) as well as higher union dissolution rates (6%) explained a smaller share of the first birth decline. The decline in first births was somewhat sharper among the lower social strata, but across strata the decreasing first birth transitions in unions explained most of the decline. To conclude, while changing union dynamics provide a partial explanation, postponing or foregoing fertility within unions represents the primary reason for the fertility decline.

Children and marital dissolution in China

Using data for women from the 2010, 2012 and 2014 Chinese Family Panel Studies, this study investigated several aspects of children’s effects on the risk of marital dissolution, including the number of children, their age and sex composition, and the timing of conception relative to marriage. Because these explanatory variables are potentially endogenous, marital dissolution was jointly modelled with the processes of marriage formation, marital childbearing and nonmarital childbearing, and the sequencing of events and unobserved correlation across processes accounted for. The results demonstrated that childlessness significantly elevates the risk of divorce whereas the first child has the strongest marriage stabilising effect. Reflecting the strong son preference in rural China, having boys was shown to markedly reduce the risk of parental divorce among rural women. Whether a child is conceived within or out of wedlock has no significant causal effect on marital dissolution insofar as it belongs to both parents. However, positive residual correlation between the processes of divorce and nonmarital childbearing suggests the potential selection of women with non-traditional family behaviours into marital dissolution.

Shifting Influences of Pregnancy on Union Formation across Age and Union Stability across Cohabitation Duration

Nonmarital pregnancy increases the likelihood of entering a marital or cohabiting union. The timing of a pregnancy within the life course of an individual or relationship duration may also impact the likelihood of forming coresidential unions and their stability. This study examines the association between non-marital pregnancy and first union formation and how this varies across age. It also considers whether the influence of pregnancy on the stability of cohabitations shifts across their duration. Using data on young adults in the U.S. (Add Health), competing-risk event-history models examine the time-varying influence of pregnancy on union formation and stability. Findings suggest that pregnancy is more strongly associated with union formation during adolescence, becoming less influential as women age. Within cohabitations, pregnancy had a bigger impact on increasing the likelihood of marriage early within unions, but the longer a couple cohabited the less likely they were to transition to marriage when pregnant.

Partnership Choice and Childbearing in Norway and Spain

Cohabitation has, in a number of countries, become a genuine alternative to marriage. Where this occurs, will we see a convergence in fertility behavior between the two partnership options? We address this question by comparing two societies, Norway and Spain, that contrast sharply not only in the evolution of cohabitation, but also in overall birth rates and public support for families. Using the Generations and Gender Survey for Norway (2007/2008) and the most recent Fertility, Family and Values Survey for Spain (2006), we estimate a three-equation multi-process model for selection into a union and fertility in order to take into account unobserved heterogeneity. For Norway, we find a significant association between selection into either partnership type and fertility, whereas for Spain, a newcomer to cohabitation, we find a significant association between fertility and selection into marriage.

Divorce, Separation, and Housing Changes: A Multiprocess Analysis of Longitudinal Data from England and Wales

This study investigates the effect of marital and nonmarital separation on individuals' residential and housing trajectories. Using rich data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and applying multilevel competing-risks event history models, we analyze the risk of a move of single, married, cohabiting, and separated men and women to different housing types. We distinguish moves due to separation from moves of separated people and account for unobserved codeterminants of moving and separation risks. Our analysis shows that many individuals move due to separation, as expected, but that the likelihood of moving is also relatively high among separated individuals. We find that separation has a long-term effect on individuals' residential careers. Separated women exhibit high moving risks regardless of whether they moved out of the joint home upon separation, whereas separated men who did not move out upon separation are less likely to move. Interestingly, separated women are most likely to move to terraced houses, whereas separated men are equally likely to move to flats (apartments) and terraced (row) houses, suggesting that family structure shapes moving patterns of separated individuals.

Short- and long-term effects of divorce and separation on housing tenure in England and Wales

This paper investigates the effects of marital and non-marital separation on individuals' housing tenure in England and Wales. We apply competing risks event history models to data from the British Household Panel Survey and the UK Household Longitudinal Study to analyse the risk of a residential move to different tenure types, for single, married, cohabiting, and separated men and women. Separated individuals are more likely to move and experience a tenure change than those who are single or in a relationship. Among separated people, private renting is the most common outcome of a move; however, women are also likely to move to social renting, whereas men tend to move to homeownership. This pattern persists when we account for time since separation and order of move, indicating a potential long-term effect of separation on housing tenure. This long-term effect is especially pertinent to separated women who cannot afford homeownership.

Education and the Transition to Fatherhood: The Role of Selection Into Union

Although advanced education has been found to be consistently associated with a later transition to parenthood for women, findings about education and the transition to parenthood have been much less consistent for men, and no stylized fact has emerged from the literature. We argue that the inconsistency of findings for men is due to the fact that the selection process involved in union formation has been disregarded in earlier studies. We hypothesize that men's educational attainment consistently and positively affects the transition to fatherhood via higher rates of union formation. We apply multiprocess event-history analysis to data from the Generations and Gender Surveys for 10 European countries. Our results show indeed a consistent positive effect of education on the transition to fatherhood, but it operates chiefly through selection into union. Failing to account for this selection process leads to a major underestimation of the salience of education for the transition to fatherhood.

The adolescent family environment and cohabitation across the transition to adulthood

This study draws upon a sample of men and women from Waves I and IV of Add Health to examine the linkages between the adolescent family environment and cohabitation behavior across the transition to adulthood. Using event history modeling the current paper considers the association between a variety of family factors and both the timing of first cohabiting unions and their outcomes (marriage, break up, still cohabiting). This paper also considers whether the impact of predictors for cohabitation timing and outcomes varies depending on the age of individuals. Results indicate that exposure during adolescence to family instability, parental cohabitation, lower parental SES, and low family belonging were associated with an elevated likelihood of entering into cohabiting unions, but primarily during adolescence and early adulthood. Family factors, including family belonging and parental relationship history, were also associated with the outcomes of first cohabitations.

Marriage duration and divorce: the seven-year itch or a lifelong itch?

Previous studies have shown that the risk of divorce is low during the first months of marriage; it then increases, reaches a maximum, and thereafter begins to decline. Some researchers consider this pattern consistent with the notion of a "seven-year itch," while others argue that the rising-falling pattern of divorce risk is a consequence of misspecification of longitudinal models because of omitted covariates or unobserved heterogeneity. The aim of this study is to investigate the causes of the rising-falling pattern of divorce risk. Using register data from Finland and applying multilevel hazard models, the analysis supports the rising-falling pattern of divorce by marriage duration: the risk of marital dissolution increases, reaches its peak, and then gradually declines. This pattern persists when I control for the sociodemographic characteristics of women and their partners. The inclusion of unobserved heterogeneity in the model leads to some changes in the shape of the baseline risk; however, the rising-falling pattern of the divorce risk persists.

Migration and Marriage: Modeling the Joint Process

BACKGROUND

Previous research on inter-relations between migration and marriage has relied on overly simplistic assumptions about the structure of dependency between the two events. However, there is good reason to posit that each of the two transitions has an impact on the likelihood of the other, and that unobserved common factors may affect both migration and marriage, leading to a distorted impression of the causal impact of one on the other.

OBJECTIVE

We will investigate relationships between migration and marriage in the United States using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979. We allow for inter-dependency between the two events and examine whether unobserved common factors affect the estimates of both migration and marriage.

METHODS

We estimate a multi-process model in which migration and marriage are considered simultaneously in regression analysis and there is allowance for correlation between disturbances; the latter feature accounts for possible endogeneity between shared unobserved determinants. The model also includes random effects for persons, exploiting the fact that many people experience both events multiple times throughout their lives.

RESULTS

Unobserved factors appear to significantly influence both migration and marriage, resulting in upward bias in estimates of the effects of each on the other when these shared common factors are not accounted for. Estimates from the multi-process model indicate that marriage significantly increases the hazard of migration while migration does not affect the hazard of marriage.

CONCLUSIONS

Omitting inter-dependency between life course events can lead to a mistaken impression of the direct effects of certain features of each event on the other.

Interrelationships between childbearing and housing transitions in the family life course

Research has examined the effect of family changes on housing transitions and childbearing patterns within various housing types. Although most research has investigated how an event in one domain of family life depends on the current state in another domain, the interplay between them has been little studied. This study examines the interrelationships between childbearing decisions and housing transitions. We use rich longitudinal register data from Finland and apply multilevel event history analysis to allow for multiple births and housing changes over the life course. We investigate the timing of fertility decisions and housing choices with respect to each other. We model childbearing and housing transitions jointly to control for time-invariant unobserved characteristics of women, which may simultaneously influence their fertility behavior and housing choices, and we show how joint modeling leads to a deeper understanding of the interplay between the two domains of family life.

The educational consequences of teen childbearing

A huge literature shows that teen mothers face a variety of detriments across the life course, including truncated educational attainment. To what extent is this association causal? The estimated effects of teen motherhood on schooling vary widely, ranging from no discernible difference to 2.6 fewer years among teen mothers. The magnitude of educational consequences is therefore uncertain, despite voluminous policy and prevention efforts that rest on the assumption of a negative and presumably causal effect. This study adjudicates between two potential sources of inconsistency in the literature—methodological differences or cohort differences—by using a single, high-quality data source: namely, The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. We replicate analyses across four different statistical strategies: ordinary least squares regression; propensity score matching; and parametric and semiparametric maximum likelihood estimation. Results demonstrate educational consequences of teen childbearing, with estimated effects between 0.7 and 1.9 fewer years of schooling among teen mothers. We select our preferred estimate (0.7), derived from semiparametric maximum likelihood estimation, on the basis of weighing the strengths and limitations of each approach. Based on the range of estimated effects observed in our study, we speculate that variable statistical methods are the likely source of inconsistency in the past. We conclude by discussing implications for future research and policy, and recommend that future studies employ a similar multimethod approach to evaluate findings.

Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research: La fécondité dans les sociétés avancées: un examen des recherches

This paper provides a review of fertility research in advanced societies, societies in which birth control is the default option. The central aim is to provide a comprehensive review that summarizes how contemporary research has explained ongoing and expected fertility changes across time and space (i.e., cross- and within-country heterogeneity). A secondary aim is to provide an analytical synthesis of the core determinants of fertility, grouping them within the analytical level in which they operate. Determinants are positioned at the individual and/or couple level (micro-level), social relationships and social networks (meso-level); and, by cultural and institutional settings (macro-level). The focus is both on the quantum and on the tempo of fertility, with a particular focus on the postponement of childbearing. The review incorporates both theoretical and empirical contributions, with attention placed on empirically tested research and whether results support or falsify existing theoretical expectations. Attention is also devoted to causality and endogeneity issues. The paper concludes with an outline of the current challenges and opportunities for future research.

Union instability as an engine of fertility? A microsimulation model for France

Opportunities for conceiving and bearing children are fewer when unions are not formed or are dissolved during the childbearing years. At the same time, union instability produces a pool of persons who may enter new partnerships and have additional children in stepfamilies. The balance between these two opposing forces and their implications for fertility may depend on the timing of union formation and parenthood. In this article, we estimate models of childbearing, union formation, and union dissolution for female respondents to the 1999 French Etude de l’Histoire Familiale. Model parameters are applied in microsimulations of completed family size. We find that a population of women whose first unions dissolve during the childbearing years will end up with smaller families, on average, than a population in which all unions remain intact. Because new partnerships encourage higher parity progressions, repartnering minimizes the fertility gap between populations with and those without union dissolution. Differences between the two populations are much smaller when family formation is postponed—that is, when union formation and dissolution or first birth occurs after age 30, or when couples delay childbearing after union formation.

Wealth and the marital divide

Marriage patterns differ dramatically in the United States by race and education. The author identifies a novel explanation for these marital divides, namely, the important role of personal wealth in marriage entry. Using event-history models and data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 cohort, the author shows that wealth is an important predictor of first marriage and that differences in asset ownership by race and education help to explain a significant portion of the race and education gaps in first marriage. The article also tests possible explanations for why wealth plays an important role in first marriage entry.

Nonmarital childbearing in Russia: second demographic transition or pattern of disadvantage?

Using retrospective union, birth, and education histories that span 1980-2003, this study investigates nonmarital childbearing in contemporary Russia. We employ a combination of methods to decompose fertility rates by union status and analyze the processes that lead to a nonmarital birth. We find that the increase in the percentage of nonmarital births was driven mainly by the growing proportion of women who cohabit before conception, not changing fertility behavior of cohabitors or changes in union behavior after conception. The relationship between education and nonmarital childbearing has remained stable: the least-educated women have the highest birth rates within cohabitation and as single mothers, primarily because of their lower probability of legitimating a nonmarital conception. These findings suggest that nonmarital childbearing Russia has more in common with the pattern of disadvantage in the United States than with the second demographic transition. We also find several aspects of nonmarital childbearing that neither of these perspectives anticipates.

The impact of conditional cash transfers on marriage and divorce

A growing number of less-developed countries have introduced conditional cash transfer programs in which funds are targeted to women. Economic models of the family suggest that these transfer programs may lead to marital turnover among program beneficiaries. Data from the experimental evaluation of the PROGRESA program in Mexico is used to provide new evidence on the short-run impacts of targeted transfers on couples' union dissolution and individuals' new union formation decisions. We find that, although the overall share of women in union does not change as a result of the program, marital turnover increases. Intact families eligible for the transfers experienced a modest (0.32 percentage points) increase in separation rates, with most of the effect concentrated among young and relatively educated women households. In contrast, young single women with low educational attainment levels experienced a substantial increase in new union formation rates. The marital transition patterns are consistent with the workhorse economic model of the marriage market-individuals with the greatest prospects to start new unions and those who may become more attractive in the marriage market are more likely to transition out of existing relationships and form new ones.

Are both parents always better than one? Parental conflict and young adult well-being

Using data from three waves of the National Survey of Families and Households (N=1,963), we examine associations between adolescent family experiences and young adult well-being across a range of indicators, including schooling, substance use, and family-related transitions. We compare children living with both biological parents, but whose parents differ in how often they argue, to children in stepfather and single-mother families, and we assess the extent to which differences can be understood in terms of family income and parenting practices. Findings suggest that parental conflict is associated with children's poorer academic achievement, increased substance use, and early family formation and dissolution. Living in single mother and stepfather families tend to be more strongly associated with our indicators of well-being, although differences between these family types and living with high conflict continuously married parents are often statistically indistinguishable. Income and parenting largely do not account for associations between adolescent family type and later life outcomes. We conclude that while children do better, on average, living with two biological married parents, the advantages of two-parent families are not shared equally by all.

Choice of study discipline and the postponement of motherhood in Europe: the impact of expected earnings, gender composition, and family attitudes

Theory suggests that the field of study may be at least as consequential for fertility behavior as the duration and level of education. Yet, this qualitative dimension of educational achievement has been largely neglected in demographic studies. This article analyzes the mechanisms relating the field of study with the postponement of motherhood by European college-graduate women aged 20-40. The second round of the European Social Survey is used to assess the impact of four features of study disciplines that are identified as key to reproductive decision making: the expected starting wage, the steepness of the earning profile, attitudes toward gendered family roles, and gender composition. The results indicate that the postponement of motherhood is relatively limited among graduates from study disciplines in which stereotypical attitudes about family roles prevail and in which a large share of the graduates are female. Both the level of the starting wage and the steepness of the earning profile are found to be associated with greater postponement. These results are robust to controlling for the partnership situation and the age at entry into the labor market.

Cohabitation and family formation in Japan

This article documents the prevalence, duration, and marital outcomes of cohabiting unions in Japan. It then examines the correlates of cohabitation experiences and also describes differences in the family-formation trajectories of women who have and have not cohabited. Cohabitation has increased rapidly among recent cohorts of women, and cohabiting unions in Japan tend to be relatively short in duration and are almost as likely to dissolve as to result in marriage. Life table analyses demonstrate that the cumulative probabilities of marriage and parenthood within marriage are roughly similar for women who did and those who did not cohabit. The most notable difference is in the pathways to family formation, with women who cohabited more likely both to marry subsequent to pregnancy and to delay childbearing within marriage. Taken as a whole, these results suggest that cohabiting unions in Japan are best viewed as an emerging prelude to marriage rather than as an alternative to marriage or singlehood. We conclude with speculation about the likelihood of further increases in cohabitation in Japan and the potential implications for marriage and fertility.

Early Claiming of Social Security Benefits and Labor Supply Behavior of Older Americans

The labor supply incentives provided by the early retirement rules of the United States Social Security Old Age benefits program are of growing importance as the Normal Retirement Age (NRA) increases to 67, and the labor force participation of Older Americans starts to increase. These incentives allow individuals who claim benefits before the NRA but continue to work, or return to the labor force, to increase their future rate of benefit pay by having benefits withheld. Since the adjustment of the benefit rate takes place only after the NRA is reached, benefits received before the NRA can become actuarially unfair for those who continue to work after claiming. Consistent with these incentives, estimates from bivariate models of the monthly labor force exit and claiming hazards using data from the Health and Retirement Study indicate that early claimers who do not withdraw from the labor force around the time they claim are increasingly likely to stay in the labor force.

Marriage or dissolution? Union transitions among poor cohabiting women

The objective of this paper is to identify the incentives and barriers to marriage among cohabiting women, especially disadvantaged mothers who are targets of welfare reform. We use the newly released cohabitation data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (1979-2000), which tracks the partners of cohabiting women across survey waves. Our results support several conclusions. First, cohabiting unions are short-lived--about one-half end within one year, and over 90% end by the fifth year. Unlike most previous research, our results show that most cohabiting unions end by dissolution of the relationship rather than by marriage. Second, transitions to marriage are especially unlikely among poor women; less than one-third marry within five years. Cohabitation among poor women is more likely than that among nonpoor women to be a long-term alternative or substitute for traditional marriage. Third, our multinomial analysis of transitions from cohabitation into marriage or dissolution highlights the salience of economically disadvantaged family backgrounds, cohabitation and fertility histories, women's economic resources, and partner characteristics. These results are interpreted in a policy environment that increasingly views marriage as an economic panacea for low-income women and their children.

Changing compatibility of cohabitation and childbearing between young British women born in 1958 and 1970

We investigate the effect of parenthood on whether non-marital unions led to marriage or parting for two cohorts of British women when they were aged between 16 and 29. We compare the effect of conceptions leading to births and the presence and characteristics of children on the odds that a cohabitation was dissolved, or that it was converted to marriage, for women born in 1958 and 1970. A multilevel, multiprocess, competing-risks model allows for multiple cohabitation per woman and endogeneity of fertility status. We find that cohabiting couples' response to impending parenthood and the presence of children changed over time. In particular, the proportion of cohabiting couples who married before a birth decreased and, in the 1970 cohort only, the risk of dissolution declined during pregnancy. There is also evidence that the presence of a child cemented a cohabiting union for women from the 1970, but not the earlier, cohort.

The relationship between childbearing and transitions from marriage and cohabitation in Britain

In this article, we describe a general framework for the analysis of correlated event histories, with an application to a study of partnership transitions and fertility among a cohort of British women. Using a multilevel, multistate competing-risks model, we examine the relationship between prior fertility outcomes (the presence and characteristics of children and current pregnancy) and the dissolution of marital and cohabiting unions and movements from cohabitation to marriage. Using a simultaneous-equations model, we model these partnership transitions jointly with fertility, allowing for correlation between the unobserved woman-level characteristics that affect each process. The analysis is based on the partnership and birth histories that were collected for the 1958 birth cohort (National Child Development Study) aged 16–42. The findings indicate that preschool children have a stabilizing effect on their parents’ partnership, whether married or cohabiting, but the effect is weaker for older children. There is also evidence that although pregnancy precipitates marriage among cohabitors, the odds of marriage decline to prepregnancy levels following a birth.

The impact of welfare reform on marriage and divorce

The goal of the 1996 Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act was to end needy parents' dependence on governmental benefits, in part by promoting marriage. The prereform welfare system was widely believed to discourage marriage because it provided benefits primarily to single mothers. However, welfare reform may have actually decreased the incentives to be married by giving women greater financial independence via the program's new emphasis on work. This article uses vital statistics data on marriages and divorces during 1989-2000 to examine the role of welfare reform (state waivers and implementation of Temporary Assistance to Needy Families) and other state-level variables on flows into and out of marriage. The results indicate that welfare reform has led to fewer new divorces and fewer new marriages, although the latter result is sensitive to specification and the choice of data.

Appropriate methods for analyzing the effect of method choice on contraceptive discontinuation

The contraceptive method chosen is an important determinant of contraceptive discontinuation. However, method choice is endogenous to contraceptive discontinuation. Using data from the 1997 Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey, we apply a multilevel multi-process model to examine the impact of method choice on three types of contraceptive discontinuation. We confirm that method choice is endogenous to the processes of contraceptive abandonment and method switching, but not failure. Ignoring the endogeneity of contraceptive choice leads to various biases in the magnitude of estimated effects of method choice on abandonment and method switching, but the general conclusions are robust to these biases.

Nonmarital childbearing: influences of education, marriage, and fertility

We examined the determinants of nonmarital fertility, focusing on the effects of other life-course events: education, marriage, marital dissolution, and marital fertility. Since these determinants are potentially endogenous, we modeled the processes that generate them jointly with nonmarital fertility and accounted for the sequencing of events and the unobserved correlations across processes. The results showed that the risk of nonmarital conception increases immediately after leaving school and that the educational effects are less pronounced for black women than for other women. The risk is lower for previously married women than for never-married women, even controlling for age, but this reduction is significant only for black women. The more children a woman already has, the lower her risk of nonmarital childbearing, particularly if the earlier children were born during a previous marriage. Ignoring endogeneity issues seriously biases the estimates of several substantively important effects.